Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
SATURDAY: Several readers have pointed out a major error in the original post. The Mets did not enter the '09 season at $149.4MM, but rather something closer to $139.6MM. Assuming a steady payroll, they would have $25-30MM to spend. They'll have to skimp on some of the needs listed, unless Omar Minaya can swing a clever trade or two.
THURSDAY: Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mets. Their commitments for 2010:
C – Omir Santos – $400K
C – Josh Thole – $400K
1B – Daniel Murphy – $401K
2B – Luis Castillo – $6MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $9MM
3B – David Wright – $10MM
IF – Anderson Hernandez – $400K
LF – Angel Pagan – $575K+
CF – Carlos Beltran – $18.5MM
RF – Jeff Francoeur – $3.375MM+
OF – Cory Sullivan – $600K+
OF – Jeremy Reed – $925K+
1B/LF – Nick Evans – $403K or OF – Fernando Martinez – $400K
SP – Johan Santana – $21MM
SP – John Maine – $2.6MM+
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – Oliver Perez – $12MM
SP – Jon Niese – $400K
Other candidates: Fernando Nieve – $414K, Tim Redding – $2.25MM+
RP – Francisco Rodriguez – $11.5MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $1.6125MM+
RP – Sean Green – $471K+
RP – Pat Misch – $402K
RP – Bobby Parnell – $400K
RP – Brian Stokes – $410K
RP – Carlos Muniz – $402K
Other commitments: J.J. Putz – $1MM buyout
Non-tender candidates: Redding, Maine, Nelson Figueroa
That puts the Mets at about $105MM, plus arbitration raises to Pagan, Francoeur, Sullivan, Reed, Maine, Feliciano, Green, and Redding (some of whom will likely be non-tendered). The Mets are in the $110MM ballpark after entering the '09 season with a $149.4MM payroll. Omar Minaya should have $35-40MM to patch his team's many holes.
The Mets have a strong core of superstars, and their collective health almost has to improve in 2010. I don't see the logic behind trading Reyes, Wright, Beltran, or Santana.
The Mets need a catcher, first baseman, and corner outfielder. They may be competing with the Braves for certain first base and left field candidates. But the Mets also need at least one solid starting pitcher as well as bullpen help.
The catching market is weak, but pairing someone like Gregg Zaun with Thole makes sense. First base presents more options. Who's a bigger health risk – Carlos Delgado at 38 or Nick Johnson at 31? Johnson's .428 OBP is hard to ignore.
The market is flush with left fielders. With so many needs, I have a hard time seeing Minaya take a run at Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, or Jason Bay. Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, and Jermaine Dye are more reasonable targets. With Castillo, Johnson, Wright, Beltran, and Abreu, the Mets would potentially have five .400 OBP players. Zaun (assuming the Rays let him go), Johnson, and Abreu could be signed for less than $25MM in 2010 salaries.
With the remaining money I'd attempt to lure Randy Wolf from the West Coast while also pursuing Erik Bedard, Brad Penny, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, or Ben Sheets for a one-year deal. Admittedly there wouldn't be much left to spend on relievers, but decent arms can be found for a million or two.
Certainly the Mets could use top free agents like Holliday and John Lackey. However, the available money would be better used to acquire four or five sensible free agents. Let's hear your recommendations in the comments.
Pedro Feliciano Wants An Extension
Mets lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano craves a multiyear extension with the Mets, according to Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News (hat tip to MetsBlog). The reliever is currently aiming to break his own team record for appearances in a season. He's held lefties to a .232/.259/.377 line this year. Rubin notes:
Feliciano, 33, is arbitration-eligible and under the Mets' control for the 2010 season. After that, he will be eligible for free agency. But both Mets officials and Feliciano expect to speak about a multi-year deal this winter. Either way, Feliciano is due a raise from the $1.6MM he's earning this season.
Feliciano told Rubin he'd like a two or three-year deal. I imagine Feliciano will seek $2MM+ for 2010, plus $3MM a year thereafter. The high-water marks from last year's free agent class: Jeremy Affeldt's two-year, $8MM deal and Damaso Marte's three-year, $12MM pact. Both were signed in November.
The lefty reliever market dropped when Trever Miller (one year, $500K in December), Alan Embree (one year, $2.25MM in December), Arthur Rhodes (two years, $4MM in December), Brian Shouse (one year, $1.55MM in February), Eddie Guardado (one year, $1MM minor league deal in February), Dennys Reyes (two years, $3MM in March), Joe Beimel (one year, $2MM in March), and Will Ohman (one year, $1.55MM minor league deal in March) signed.
This year's crop of lefty relievers includes those on one-year deals above, plus Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Ron Mahay, Darren Oliver, Scott Schoeneweis, and Ron Villone. Grabow's already talking extension with the Cubs (or not), while Gonzalez may see himself as a closer.
Odds & Ends: Pirates, Schneider, Claggett
A few links to start the evening off…
- When asked if the Pirates might pursue a free agent this winter to address their lack of power, Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post Gazette said the team has indicated "that they will wait until they see which of the current players might take a step forward, then identifying needs." That sounds like a "no," or at least a "probably not."
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson said he would not be surprised if Brian Schneider returned to the Nationals as a backup catcher next year, but he would have to take a big paycut. Schneider has already said he doesn't expect to return to the Mets next year, and after making $4.9MM this year, he should be prepared to take a big paycut wherever he goes.
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Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09257/997985-63.stm?cmpid=pirates.xml#ixzz0R7cZcwUs
- The Yankees designated reliever Anthony Claggett for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster for Freddy Guzman, reports Peter Abraham of The Journal News. Claggett was originally acquired in the deal that sent Gary Sheffield to Detroit, and got annihilated in his brief callup (33.75 ERA & 5.62 WHIP in 2.2 IP) this year.
Schneider Doesn’t Expect To Return To Mets
Adam Rubin of The NY Daily News writes that catcher Brian Schneider knows his days with the Mets are numbered.
"I won't be back," Schneider told the Daily News, accepting that the Mets don't plan to re-sign him. "I'm okay with that. I'll easily get a job next year. I'm not worried about it. I'll get a job and just move on. Guys do that. I'm not going to retire. No way."
The 32 year-old Schneider missed part of April and most of May due to injury, and has been riding the bench in favor Omir Santos and Josh Thole recently. He's started just 15 games since August 1st, and has hit a meager .195/.274/.318 on the year. In his two seasons with New York, Schneider's produced a .237/.319/.352 batting line in 590 plate appearances, which isn't far off from his career output.
Schneider projects to be a Type-B free agent after the year, but he's right on the cutoff and could easily become a no-compensation free agent. It probably wouldn't even matter, because it seems extremely unlikely that the team would offer Schneider arbitration after he made $4.9MM this year.
Heyman’s Latest: Jeter, Wagner, Delgado, Lackey
No team is successful without good coaching and guidance, so SI.com's Jon Heyman pays homage to those who got the job done behind the scenes by naming his ten most unsung heroes of the 2009 season. Rangers' pitching coach Mike Maddux tops the list, and several other familiar names make an appearance.
Here's the rest of Heyman's rumors…
- Heyman guesses that the Yankees will resign Derek Jeter for at least $60MM over three years once his contract expires after next season. That's a lot of scratch for a guy who would be entering his age-37 season.
- The Red Sox have "every intention" of offering Billy Wagner arbitration, and barring something unexpected, Wagner has every intention of turning it down. He's projected to be a Type-A free agent, so Boston would walk away with two high draft picks in that scenario.
- Out since early May with a hip injury, Carlos Delgado hasn't given up on the idea of playing again this year. The Mets would be happy to accomodate him, because according to Heyman's sources the team has thought about bringing him back on an incentive laden contract. A late season cameo would at least give them a look at what kind of shape he's in.
- Stop me if you've heard this before: the Mets might consider Orlando Hudson this offseason if they can find a taker for Luis Castillo. That's what, three times in the last 24 hours?
- The Angels tried to sign John Lackey for four years and $60MM last offseason. Given the lack of impact starting pitching available this year, Lackey's price has gone up.
- In regards to Ken Griffey Jr. and his .214 AVG, Heyman says "this has to be the end, no?" Griffey hasn't said anything about his future yet, though.
- Kansas City ownership has "often prevented its baseball people from making deadline trades in order to avoid the dreaded 100-loss season." This strategy probably works against them in the long run, but Heyman suggests it may "make them a tougher team than some also-rans who hit the wall."
- There's no evidence that Lou Piniella is a candidate to be fired (his $4MM option for 2010 has already been picked up), but the question about whether he wants to return or not has to be asked. Sweet Lou's body language did not look good last weekend.
Odds & Ends: Castillo, Wagner, Pitching
Some links to look through on the day Eric Munson returns to the big leagues…
- Joel Sherman of The NY Post wonders if a Luis Castillo for Jeremy Bonderman or Nate Robertson deal makes sense. Placido Polanco will be a free agent after the season, and both pitchers are expendable to Detroit. Castillo is owed $12MM over the next two years, while Bonderman and Robertson will take in $12.5MM and $10MM, respectively, in the final season of their contracts next year.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com tweets that the best possibilities for Billy Wagner next year are the Braves, Astros, Cubs, Tigers, and maybe even the Nationals.
- In a piece at ESPN, Baseball Prospectus' Shawn Hoffman looks at who could be the best pitching bargains of the offseason. Carl Pavano, Erik Bedard, and John Smoltz might be the best of the lot. You need Insider to read the article, but it comes recommended.
Odds & Ends: Scheppers, Mets
A pair of stray links on a slow night…
- In today's mailbag, Jeff Wilson of The Dallas Morning News reports that there has been no progress in negotiations between the Rangers and 44th overall pick Tanner Scheppers. Because he played in an independent league last year, the signing deadline did not apply to Scheppers and he is free to sign at any point until next June.
- Former Mets GM Joe McIlvaine reflected on the deal that sent Lee Mazzilli to Texas in exchange for youngsters Ron Darling and Walt Terrell back in 1982, courtesy of MLB.com's Marty Noble. I don't know about you, but I'm a sucker for these old trade stories.
- MLBTR on Twitter. The best thing to hit the internet since MLBTR on Facebook.
Odds & Ends: Mets, Reds, Byrd
We link, you decide…
- Jon Heyman of SI.com tweets that the Mets might try to trade the incumbent Luis Castillo this offseason, and look at free agent-to-be Orlando Hudson. I feel like we've heard this before. Castillo still has two years and $12MM left on his deal, so good luck trying to move him.
- MLB.com's Mark Sheldon has some quotes from Reds manager Dusty Baker about wanting "dudes that drive in some runs and hopefully don't strikeout so much." Scott Rolen, the Reds big trade deadline pickup, has hit just .278/.360/.380 for Cincy.
- Jeff Wilson of The Dallas Morning News writes that outfielder Marlon Byrd is healthy and hitting again. It comes at a good time for Byrd, who will be a free agent after the season.
Odds & Ends: M’s, Peavy, Metropolitans
A handful of links for your Wednesday evening viewing pleasure…
- Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports has concluded his "Restoring the Rosters" series. Pouliot's No. 1 organization, "if given only the players it originally signed," is the Seattle Mariners. All 30 squads are now available for review.
- According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, Jake Peavy's debut with the White Sox is still "up in the air." Here's Peavy's take: "I can promise you this. On Feb. 15 or whatever day it is I report [for spring training], I'll be in as good of shape as anybody and be ready to pitch and expect nothing less than what I've done in years."
- R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs doesn't believe "blowing up the Mets" is the answer. In fact, he likes their current nucleus. "Heading into next season," Anderson writes, "the Mets will have David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran. Depending on Johan Santana’s health, they could legitimately post four four/five win players without spending a dime on free agency."
Odds & Ends: Chen, Mets, White Sox
An action-packed set of links for Wednesday…
- Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker passes along a report about MLB teams, the Cubs included, watching Chunichi Dragons pitcher Wei-Yin Chen's last start. It's possible Chen will be a free agent after the season. The Taiwanese southpaw has a 1.45 ERA this year and would be in high demand.
- MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone does not believe the team will non-tender starter John Maine after the season. Maine, coming back from a shoulder injury, may start Sunday.
- SNY's Ted Berg says this is a terrible time to trade Jose Reyes.
- R.J. Anderson of DRays Bay sees a trade more likely than a non-tender for catcher Dioner Navarro.
- Over at FanGraphs, Anderson notes that Kiko Calero (10.8 K/9) is a "nice sleeper candidate" among free agent relievers. Calero's strikeout rate ranks behind only Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Rich Harden, and Octavio Dotel among free agent pitchers with at least 40 innings.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told MLB.com's Jason Beck the Magglio Ordonez vesting option situation "speaks for itself." 23 more plate appearances for Maggs, and the Tigers have him at $18MM for 2010.
- Among the topics in Mark Gonzales' Chicago Tribune White Sox mailbag: the Brandon Allen–Tony Pena swap and the possibility of the Sox pursuing Chone Figgins. In another article, Gonzales notes that Ozzie Guillen wants Freddy Garcia ($1MM club option) as his fifth starter next year.
- Jack Curry of the New York Times has the story on the Newark Bears, and independent league club that has chosen to stock its roster with recognizable former big leaguers trying to claw their way back to the Show.
- An AL scout told Tom Krasovic "Oakland got smoked" in the Scott Hairston trade. The Padres received pitchers Sean Gallagher, Ryan Webb, and Craig Italiano in the July 5th trade (Gallagher was named later).
- WEEI's Alex Speier says the Red Sox announced the signing of Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias to a four-year Major League deal beginning next year (it's worth $8.25MM).