NL Notes: Brewers, Padres, Beltran, Mets
The National League takes center stage as the MLB playoffs continue with Division Series action in Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. Will there be any goats at either PNC Park or Dodger Stadium? Probably not, especially after what happened to the Cubs 68 years ago today when they kicked out Chicago tavern owner Billy Sianis and his goat from Game Four of the World Series. Sianis proclaimed "Them Cubs, they ain't gonna win no more," which started the now infamous "Curse of the Billy Goat." Here's the latest news and notes from the Senior Circuit:
- The Brewers' solid play over the final two months of the season has changed thoughts of a complete teardown to mere retooling, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Can we win with this roster? Yeah, we can win with the roster we have," GM Doug Melvin told Haudricourt. "I think if our best players are on the field and our young guys take that next step, we can be there." Melvin, however, admitted the Brewers are probably not as talented as in past years.
- The Padres say payroll will increase to $80MM next year, but it still may not be enough to compete in the NL West, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Times. Center opines the Padres need to add a middle-of-the-order bat and could package outfielders Will Venable or Chris Denorfia with a pitching prospect for a corner outfielder or peddle Yonder Alonso for a more traditional power-hitting first baseman.
- Carlos Beltran confirmed he spoke with Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, but would not reveal what was discussed, reports the New York Post's Mike Puma. Beltran, a free agent after the World Series, was diplomatic when asked about a reunion with the club, "I'm going to listen to everybody and we’ll see what happens."
- Wilpon is growing antsy and needs the Mets to start peforming in order to increase attendance and the overall value of the franchise, sources have told Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com. With this in mind and based on his knowledge of the front office and his limited conversations to date, Cerrone lists the Mets' potential free agent and trade targets and one notable name is missing: Shin-Soo Choo.
Quick Hits: Ellsbury, Girardi, Schuerholz, Harvey
ESPN's Jim Bowden offers up a list of players who could boost their values in free agency with strong postseason performances (Insider's subscription required). Jacoby Ellsbury, who checks in at No. 2 on our free agent power rankings, head's up Bowden's list. Most evaluators believe he's a superior player to both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn, two center fielders who were payed handsomely last winter, Bowden says. Ellsbury's certainly made his case for a big contract so far this postseason: After going two for five last night with an RBI and a run, he already has three hits in three at-bats tonight, doubling in a run and scoring one himself. More Saturday night MLB links, as the Rays attempt to mount a comeback at Fenway…
- The Yankees made an offer to Joe Girardi that is believed to be in the $4MM-$5MM per-year range, Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News report. The offer would reportedly make Girardi the second-highest paid manager in the game, trailing only Mike Scioscia of the Angels. However, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says many in the Cubs organization are confident they'll have a chance to pry Girardi, their top managerial candidate, away from the Yankees.
- Whoever ends up as the Cubs manager will find the task of nurturing young talent in a clubhouse of journeyman-type players a difficult one, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune writes. Many believe the Cubs are in line for another losing season in 2014, as several of their top young prospects aren't expected to arrive until 2015 at the earliest.
- Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press broke down the Tigers' rotation with the team's pitching coach, Jeff Jones.
- Longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz discussed his career in an interview with Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, including his decision to vacate the club's GM job following the 2007 season. "I believed in my heart it was time for someone else, someone more aggressive, more energetic. I always had those things, but I could feel it wasn't the same," Schuerholz said. "I went to my boss, the chairman of the team, Terry McGuirk, and said, 'Here's the keys. I'm done.'" McGuirk later convinced Schuerholz to take the team president job.
- Matt Harvey's decision to undergo Tommy John surgery was the right one, teammate David Wright tells Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "I told him numerous times, 'If it was me and I was in the same situation, I would have the surgery,''' Wright said. The Mets captain added that he expects GM Sandy Alderson to boost the club's payroll this offseason.
- Turnover in the Padres' front office and ownership have hurt the team's chances to contend, Jeff Sanders of U-T San Diego writes. Padres fans have watched the club post losing seasons in five of the past six years even as teams in similarly sized markets, like the Rays and the A's, have consistently assembled winning rosters. However, things appear to be headed in the right direction under President Mike Dee and GM Josh Byrnes. “Right now, as far as having everyone on the same page, it’s as good as it’s ever been," Randy Smith, who oversees the club's player development and international scouting, says.
Quick Hits: Athletics, Mariners, Beltran
Even as the Athletics square off against the Tigers at the O.co Coliseum, the organization is working on stadium issues on multiple fronts. Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs has a blow-by-blow of yesterday's federal court hearing on MLB's efforts to dismiss the suit filed against it by the City of San Jose. Somewhat ironically, neither the A's themselves nor the city of Oakland are parties to that suit. Those two entities, meanwhile, are still negotiating a renewal of the club's expiring lease on the much-maligned ballpark; Will Kane of the San Francisco Chronicle has the latest on that score. Here are a few more notes on a quiet Saturday morning …
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is in no particular rush to fill the club's surprise manager vacancy, the Associate Press reports (via the Boston Herald). Set to begin his third search since taking the helm in 2008, the general manager says he has yet to start in earnest and will take his time doing so. "Until we get to a point where I feel comfortable with all of the names that we have and maybe some of the clubs are out of the playoffs we might have interest in," said Zduriencik, "I won't even begin the process."
- One-time Mets star outfielder Carlos Beltran is not ruling out a return to New York, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter), and that possibility may have improved with an All Star game meet-up between Beltran and team COO Jeff Wilpon. From the Mets' perspective, Puma further tweets, the team is interested but wary of Beltran's apparent defensive decline. We owe a tip of the hat to MetsBlog, whose Michael Baron comments that he isn't sure Beltran is an everyday outfielder at this point. MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently compared Beltran to Rangers slugger Nelson Cruz, with MLBTR readers indicating a strong (69.3%) preference for the former.
Matt Harvey To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The Mets have announced that ace Matt Harvey has elected to undergo Tommy John surgery to repair the partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery later this month.
Harvey's absence for the 2014 season will be a crushing blow, as the 24-year-old was worth a robust 6.1 wins above replacement (per Fangraphs) in just 178 1/3 innings this season. Harvey pitched to an electric 2.27 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 47.7 percent ground-ball rate over the course of his first full season at the Major League level in 2013.
The Mets were expected to be aggressive players on the free agent market with an eye toward contending in 2014 with David Wright healthy at third base and a young pitching core fronted by Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jonathon Niese. They still appear poised to make a splash on the free agent market this winter, though the news that they will officially be without Harvey in 2014 has to significantly dampen expectations for the team's ultimate performance next season.
Though the team has numerous young pitching options, the confirmation that Harvey will be sidelined for the entirety of the 2014 campaign could increase the likelihood that the team adds a veteran starting pitcher to a wishlist that reportedly already includes Shin-Soo Choo.
Quick Hits: Wainwright, D’Backs, Hultzen, Royals
The Cardinals rolled to a 9-1 win over the Pirates in Game One of their NLDS series today, as A.J. Burnett allowed seven runs in just two innings while Adam Wainwright allowed a run on three hits over seven innings. Pittsburgh has had to deal with Wainwright as a division rival for years yet MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter) points out that Wainwright could've been a Pirate 13 years ago. The Bucs were preparing to take Wainwright as an outfielder in the second round (with the 59th overall pick) of the 2000 draft, but the Braves took Wainwright 29th overall and the rest is history.
Here are some more news items as we look ahead to Friday's ALDS series openers…
- Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers said his team will look for a left-handed bat this offseason, MLB.com's Steve Gilbert reports, and that next hitter will likely come in a trade. "We're going to look at free agents, but I think this is one of the weaker free-agent markets I've seen in some time, so that might lead us toward looking at trade partners more," Towers said.
- Mariners southpaw Danny Hultzen underwent left shoulder labrum and rotator-cuff surgery on Tuesday and could miss the entire 2014 season while recovering, Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times reports. MLB.com ranked Hultzen as the 18th-best prospect in the sport in the site's preseason rankings, while Baseball America (#29) and ESPN's Keith Law (#66) also thought highly of the 23-year-old lefty. Hultzen was the second overall pick of the 2011 draft and was quickly moving up the Seattle farm system, posting a 2.05 ERA, 4.86 K/BB and 10.0 K/9 in six Triple-A starts last season.
- Some of the flaws of the new collective bargaining agreement can be seen in the case of the Royals, ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription required) argues, as small-market teams who finish just shy of the postseason are somewhat "punished" by the system.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News looks at which players in the postseason could be targets for the Yankees or Mets in free agency or the trade market this winter. Some players could fit on either club, such as Ricky Nolasco. Martino says the Mets "tossed around" Nolasco's name when discussing a Giancarlo Stanton trade with the Marlins last spring.
NL East Links: Cishek, Byrd, Ausmus, Phillies
The Marlins were featured as part of MLBTR's Arbitration Eligibles series two days ago, and according to Matt Swartz's projection model, Steve Cishek is set to earn $3.2MM in his first year of eligibility. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro wonders if such a number could make Cishek a trade candidate, as "the organization is probably asking itself if it needs a $3.2MM closer at this point." Cishek will get more expensive in the future, as he will receive an extra arb year as a Super Two player. Still, Miami has shown that it wants to keep Cishek, as the club turned down all trade offers for the stopper last summer before the deadline.
Here are some more items from around the NL East…
- Marlon Byrd would love to return to the Mets this winter, the Pirates outfielder tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. After Byrd was traded to the Buccos in August, Byrd talked to Mets GM Sandy Alderson and told him "thank you for the opportunity at the beginning of the year and thank you for the opportunity to play for a winner. I told him, ‘If you want me back, I would love to come back.’ ” Byrd credits the Mets for giving him an opportunity to revive his career after serving a 50-game PED suspension last year.
- Brad Ausmus has been mentioned as a candidate for the Nationals' manager job, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports. The Nats haven't yet asked the Padres for permission to interview Ausmus, who is an assistant to baseball operations in San Diego. Kilgore notes that the Nationals still seem to be in the early stages of their search, as bench coach Randy Knorr and Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams have yet to be contacted about interviews.
- The Phillies under Ruben Amaro have been known for making big offseason splashes but thanks to the team's existing large payroll commitments, "this will be the offseason of the value play," writes David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. Murphy lists five key elements to the Phils' winter plans, including noting that the club "can't have any untouchables."
- In other Phillies news from earlier today, they outrighted four players off their 40-man roster and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes looked at Philadelphia's arbitration-eligible players,
Mets Rumors: Turner, Choo, Harvey
Here's a look at the latest on the Mets..
- The Mets are likely to tender Justin Turner an offer, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. The infielder is projected to make $800K by MLBTR's Matt Swartz and the club doesn't view that as an overpay for what Turner provides. The 28-year-old played all over in 2013, seeing time at first base, second base, shortstop, and third base.
- A team insider told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that the Mets officials plan to follow the Red Sox's template for rebuilding. While they won't spend as much as Boston did last winter, they'll look to bring in several players on one- to three-year deals rather than dishing out any massive, long-term deals. If they stick to that, they won't be among the clubs in the running for Shin-Soo Choo.
- The Mets need to identify which holes to address as they look ahead to 2014, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Much of their spending will hinge on whether Matt Harvey can avoid going under the knife for his partially torn UCL.
East Notes: Nationals, Price, Wheeler, Matsuzaka
The Nationals do not plan on making huge changes this offseason, reports Amanda Comak of the Washington Times. They will, of course, hire a new manager to replace the retiring Davey Johnson, and they'll also look for left-handed relief help, perhaps, as Comak suggests, from someone like J.P. Howell or Oliver Perez. Other than that, they're mostly happy with the roster they have. "But I think the team, as far as the core group, is set up pretty good. The core rotation and the core bullpen is set up pretty good," GM Mike Rizzo says. The Nationals could take a shot at someone like David Price of the Rays to improve their rotation, but that doesn't appear likely, given the cost it would take to get him. Here are more notes from the East divisions.
- If the Mets want to contend in the NL East next year, they should think about dealing Zack Wheeler, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes. For example, Martino suggests dealing Wheeler to the Rays in deal for Price might make sense if Price is willing to agree to a contract extension. Chris Sale of the White Sox might also be a possibility. Alternatively, Martino suggests the Mets could trade Wheeler for a hitter and then acquire Ervin Santana or Matt Garza as a free agent instead.
- Pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka is now represented by Mark Pieper and SFX, Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal writes (on Twitter). Scott Boras was Matsuzaka's previous agent. Matsuzaka posted a 4.42 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 38 2/3 innings for the Mets in 2013.
Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Mets are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.
- Daniel Murphy (4.109): $5.8MM
- Ike Davis (3.155): $3.5MM
- Dillon Gee (3.028): $3.4MM
- Bobby Parnell (4.132): $3.2MM
- Eric Young, Jr. (3.123): $1.9MM
- Lucas Duda (2.132, Super Two): $1.8MM
- Scott Atchison (4.168): $1.3MM
- Ruben Tejada (2.151, Super Two): $1MM
- Omar Quintanilla (4.122): $900K
- Justin Turner (3.045): $800K
- Mike Baxter (2.129, Super Two): $500K
Much has been written about Davis, who projects for a modest $375K raise after a lost season. Earlier this month, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com wrote that the team is giving no consideration to non-tendering Davis, though a trade is possible. Davis, 27 in March, hit 32 home runs in 2012 and would appeal to many teams as a buy-low candidate given a weak free agent market for first basemen. Rubin has also written about the possibility of the Mets keeping Davis and trading or optioning Duda.
Murphy, Gee, and Parnell had fine seasons for the Mets, and will be bargains at their arbitration salaries. After leading the NL in stolen bases, Young's roster spot is safe.
Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner picked up the bulk of the starts at shortstop this year, with Turner backing up at other spots as well. Tejada, whose season ended with a broken leg, has frustrated the Mets with his attitude and work ethic, as outlined in this article from Jim Baumbach of Newsday. It does not seem the Mets want to give up on him with a non-tender, but a trade seems possible if they find a better option to start at shortstop. Given their small salaries, it's possible Quintanilla and Turner both return in backup roles.
Atchison and Baxter failed to impress this year, and there's a good chance they're non-tendered in December.
Trades could thin this group, but if the Mets tender contracts to Murphy, Davis, Gee, Parnell, Young, Duda, Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner, they're looking at an estimated $22.3MM for nine arbitration eligible players.
NL East Notes: Mets, Nationals, Marlins
As the Mets look to take the next step forward in their rebuilding process, they should take a page out of the Indians' playbook, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Many suggest the Red Sox as a good example for GM Sandy Alderson & Co., but their offseason additons actually cost them about $61.5MM in 2013 alone. Sherman believes that the Mets' payroll bump will be closer to $30MM based on conversations with multiple executives, which is just $6MM shy of what the Indians spent last winter to retool their lineup. Here's more out of the NL East..
- After Mike Rizzo finds the club's next skipper, the focus will be on bolstering the Nationals' pitching staff for 2014, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson. It looked like the Nationals would be in the market for a new third baseman because of Ryan Zimmerman's throwing troubles early in the season, but they no longer have a need there as he appears to be back on track.
- It's no longer a given that the Nationals will go out-of-house for their next manager and people who speak regularly with team management now believe bench coach Randy Knorr also has a strong chance to get the job, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Knorr is said to have strong support within the organization and looks to be a frontrunner along with D'Backs coach Matt Williams.
- The Marlins have reassigned hitting coach John Pierson to the minors, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.
- The Marlins also relieved Mike Wickham of his duties as director of baseball operations while promoting Dan Noffsinger to the position, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
- Earlier today, Steve Adams rounded up today's news on the Mets.