Latest On Yankees’ Offer To Aaron Judge
The Yankees wasted little time in making a new offer to Aaron Judge following the commencement of the offseason, with general manager Brian Cashman revealing two weeks ago that the team had made an updated offer to the reigning American League MVP. Judge has since met with the Giants, who were also reported to be preparing an offer. The Dodgers are also a reported suitor. Details surrounding Judge’s free agency have been sparse thus far, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Yankees’ most recent offer was “in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million.” That’s not a final offer, and the Yankees could increase their numbers if the market necessitates, per the report.
It’s still a ballpark figure, but that general range could potentially give Judge the largest annual value ever secured by a position player. Mike Trout, who inked a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of a standing two-year, $66.5MM commitment with the Angels — currently holds that distinction at $36MM. (Max Scherzer‘s $43.3MM AAV is the top mark overall.) Establishing a new AAV record among position players would surely be of interest to Judge, and if the Yankees are truly already in the $300MM ballpark, he’d at least be within striking distance of Bryce Harper‘s record for the largest free-agent contract in history ($330MM).
As far as the timing of a potential deal for Judge, it seems as though one could come together in relatively quick fashion. Passan indicates that there’s an expectation a deal could be completed by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, which take place in San Diego from Dec. 4-7. That meshes with previous reporting from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who made similar suggestions on MLB Network when discussing Judge’s meeting with the Giants. SNY’s Andy Martino, meanwhile, writes that it would “be a mild surprise” if Judge doesn’t come away from next week’s meetings with an agreement in hand.
Wherever the present numbers stand, it’s long been clear that Judge’s bold bet on himself this past spring has paid off. Judge declined the Yankees’ best extension offer prior to the season, after which Cashman took the virtually unprecedented step of announcing the terms of the offer: seven years and $213.5MM. That contract would’ve begun with the 2023 season, so Judge appears to have already secured an extra year and upwards of $80-90MM in additional guarantees.
Roster Resource currently projects the Yankees at a bit more than $222MM in luxury obligations. An AAV in the $36-37MM range would bump that number to $258-259MM, setting the stage for a second consecutive season of paying CBT penalties.
As a second-time offender, the Yankees would owe a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the first threshold of $233MM, a 42% tax on the next $20MM spent, a 75% tax on the next $20MM and a 90% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Judge alone would put them into the second tier and come with a penalty of around $8-9MM, and any subsequent moves would be taxed heavily. The Yankees could change that calculus by finding a taker for Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks or a member (or members) of their arbitration class, but the team knows full well that the cost of an improved offer to Judge stretches well beyond the bottom-line numbers on the contract itself.
That improved offer, of course, comes on the heels of a historic season that saw Judge seamlessly deal with not only the pressure of the expectations set by rejecting more than $200MM but also the pressure of chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding mark of 61 home runs. Judge indeed set a new American League and Yankee standard when he belted his 62nd round-tripper of the season on Oct. 4. He finished off his MVP-winning campaign with a stunning .311/.425/.686 batting line — good for a 207 wRC+ that stands as the best offensive season in recent history. Barry Bonds was the last player to match or exceed that level, and prior to him, no qualified hitter had done so since Ted Williams in 1957. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract for Judge when ranking him atop our annual Top 50 free agent list.
Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Explored Deadline Trade Involving Marco Gonzales, Joey Gallo
Prior to the August 2 trade deadline, the Mariners, Phillies, and Yankees had some negotiations about a potential three-team swap, according to The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish. Left-hander Marco Gonzales would’ve headed to Philadelphia and outfielder Joey Gallo “possibly” would’ve been dealt to the Mariners, though it isn’t known what player or players New York would’ve acquired in this proposed deal.
As it turned out, the Yankees instead moved Gallo to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter, with Los Angeles absorbing the roughly $3.7MM remaining on Gallo’s 2022 salary at the time of the deadline. The Phillies added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation rather than Gonzales, who stayed put in the Pacific Northwest. Rather than move Gonzales or any other starters, the Mariners instead added to their rotation depth with a blockbuster trade to pry Luis Castillo away from the Reds.
Teams routinely discuss all manner of trades in the days and months prior to deadline day, and it isn’t known if this particular three-team deal (or even some permutation of a deal) was anywhere close to becoming a reality. However, this floated trade certainly carries plenty of “what if?” consideration given that the three connected teams all made deep playoff runs, with the Phillies in particular reaching the World Series. Also, given that Gallo is a free agent and Gonzales is still drawing trade interest, it’s worth wondering if those past summer trade talks could influence some moves yet to come this winter.
Let’s begin with Gallo, who struggled through a rough 2022 season but still had some value for a Mariners team that was looking for outfield depth. In the lead-up to the deadline, Julio Rodriguez was battling wrist problems and Mitch Haniger was still on the 60-day injured list recovering from a high ankle sprain. Utility options Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also banged up, and the M’s weren’t satisfied with what Jesse Winker or Jarred Kelenic were bringing to the table. As Divish noted both in this piece and back in July, the M’s were actually exploring trading either Winker or Kelenic.
The two remain trade candidates in the offseason, and the Mariners are still looking for outfield help in general. However, the M’s have already landed one new everyday corner outfielder in Teoscar Hernandez, and dealt Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks in another trade, so the Seattle outfield picture is quite different than it was back in July and early August. It isn’t out of the question that the M’s could still make a play to land Gallo, though he might be more of a backup plan if such higher-tier free agents (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi) couldn’t be signed. Winker, Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell are all left-handed hitters, so it could also be possible Seattle would trade from this surplus before looking into signing Gallo.
Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park might not be the ideal spot for a power-centric player like Gallo to rebuild his value, and the slugger has only a .190/275/.372 slash line over 153 plate appearances at T-Mobile as a visiting player. That said, Gallo had a 4.2 fWAR season as recently as 2021, and could regain some of his old form simply with another change of scenery after his lackluster showings in New York and Los Angeles.
It was an odd season for Gallo, who had some of the game’s best walk, hard-hit ball, and barrel rates. He also had a 39.8% strikeout rate (far and away the worst of any player with at least 400 plate appearances), as Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach was carried to absurd extremes. Unfortunately for Gallo, the third outcome wasn’t quite as extreme, as he hit 19 homers in 401 PA and his .197 Isolated Power metric was well below the .283 career IP he posted from 2015-21.
Gallo struggled whether or not he faced defensive shifts in 2022, and he actually had a better wOBA against the shift than without facing shifts (.350 to .323) in 2021. That said, the new rules limiting the use of shifts might have at least some impact on improving Gallo’s numbers, given opposing teams regularly deployed the shift against Gallo over 90% of the time.
There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not Seattle could trade at least one of Gonzales or Chris Flexen this winter, since the M’s have been connected to Kodai Senga and Matt Brash is also on hand as a potential fifth starter. The rest of the rotation is set, with Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby forming an impressive quartet of arms. Gonzales (who turns 31 in February) is over two years older than Flexen, and is more expensive — Gonzales is owed $6.5MM in 2023 and $12MM in 2024, while Flexen is only under contract through the 2023 season on an $8MM salary.
Given Gonzales’ longer-term contract, the Phillies seemingly had interest in the left-hander as more than just a rental player, so it would stand to reason that he might still be on their radar heading into 2023. With Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson hitting free agency, the Phillies could use a durable veteran like Gonzales to reinforce the back end of their rotation.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are Philadelphia’s two aces, Ranger Suarez has emerged as a solid starter, and the inexperienced Bailey Falter and Michael Plassmeyer are penciled into the final two rotation spots at the moment. Top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could both enter the Major League picture before 2023 is out, but with the Phillies in clear win-now mode, relying on Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, and Abel for as many as two rotation spots probably isn’t ideal. It wouldn’t even be a shock to see the Phils acquire one big-ticket arm to join Nola and Wheeler at the front of the rotation, and then a more moderately-priced hurler like Gonzales as a fifth starter.
Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets
The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets. In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.
In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player. As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere. For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract. Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.
Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts). Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix. DJ LeMahieu‘s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.
If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place. However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ‘on different tracks‘ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players. Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.
Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon. While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.
The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold. Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five. Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues. Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.
Who Will Be The Yankees’ Shortstop In 2023?
The Yankees shortstop position has been in a state of flux for over a year now. In September of 2021, manager Aaron Boone announced that Gleyber Torres would be moved over to second base. With that new vacancy, many expected the Yankees to acquire one of the five shortstops at the top of last year’s free agent class: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.
However, as the offseason got underway, reports emerged that the club wasn’t planning to focus its resources on the shortstop position. They had enough confidence in their young prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza they didn’t feel the need to hand out a lengthy contract to fill the position. Instead, they traded for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a glove-first player who had two years of relatively cheap control remaining.
Things went roughly according to plan in 2022, as Kiner-Falefa continued to hit at a below-average level but produced generally solid work with the glove. His .261/.314/.327 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 85, with all those numbers fairly close to his career marks. He made some defensive miscues in the postseason, but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a +10 in the regular season, tied for sixth among MLB shortstops for the year. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were less enthused but still had him around league average. He’ll turn 28 in March.
One year later, it seems the long-term plan has not changed. There’s another crop of excellent shortstops this year, with Correa returning to the open market alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. But recent reporting still points to the Yankees having enough faith in their internal options to dedicate their offseason efforts elsewhere. The question that needs to be resolved now is exactly how strong that faith is. Is it time to hand the keys over to the kids or not?
One year ago, Peraza had just eight games of Triple-A experience under his belt. He was sent back to that level to start the 2022 season and eventually got into 99 games. In that time, he hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases. His batting line was .259/.329/.448 for a wRC+ of 106. He was promoted to the majors late in the season and got into 18 games there. He only went deep once but hit at a .306/.404/.429 level in that small sample for a wRC+ of 146. His batting average on balls in play was .302 in the minors but jumped to .359 in the majors, meaning those improved results seem unsustainable, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. He’ll turn 23 in June.
Volpe finished 2021 at High-A and started 2022 in Double-A. In 110 games there, he went deep 18 times and swiped 44 bags, producing a .251/.348/.472 batting line for a wRC+ of 122. He scuffled after a promotion to Triple-A, hitting just .236/.313/.404 for a wRC+ of 91, but in a small sample of just 22 games. He’ll turn 22 in April.
A surprise entrant into the mix is Oswaldo Cabrera. As a prospect, he wasn’t considered to be at the same level as Peraza and Volpe but he’s shot forward in recent years. In 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 29 home runs and stole 21 bases. His combined batting line was .272/.330/.533 for a wRC+ of 130. He was hitting well in Triple-A again in 2022 and got promoted to the big leagues. In 44 major league games, he hit .247/.312/.429 for a wRC+ of 111 while spending time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners. He’ll turn 24 in March.
With those youngsters being at or near the majors, it’s possible the Yankees don’t feel they need Kiner-Falefa anymore. They did just avoid arbitration with him by giving him a $6MM contract, but they could work out a trade if they feel secure enough in the other options. However, they could also keep IKF around just in case there’s any growing pains with the younger players, eventually sliding him into a utility role over time. Aside from Torres, the other infielders currently on the roster are on the older side, as Josh Donaldson is turning 37 next month while Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu will turn 34 and 35, respectively, during the next season. Regardless of who gets the starting shortstop job, the club will likely want to keep some depth on hand in case any of these players deal with injuries or underperformance, as they all did in 2022.
It’s likely that the job will be awarded based on meritocracy. Whoever plays the best in the spring and then into the regular season will continue to get the playing time. The others can be moved to utility/bench roles, spend more time in the minors or end up traded to another club. It does seem like the plan is likely to work out, as they just need one of these options to take the reins. By not dedicating a nine-figure contract to a shortstop, they will be able to use their financial resources to attempt to retain Aaron Judge and/or pursue other marquee free agents as they look to repeat at AL East champions in 2023.
But who do you think will charge forward as the everyday shortstop in 2023? Cabrera has the most MLB experience at this point but he comes with less prospect pedigree and seems easily capable of moving to other positions. Peraza seems to have little left to prove in the minors but he’s only played 18 MLB games. Volpe only just reached Triple-A but could burst onto the scene next year. Kiner-Falefa is still around if no one else takes the job. So, who will play the most games at shortstop for the Yankees in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.
Who Will Play The Most Games At Shortstop For The Yankees In 2023?
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Oswald Peraza 42% (4,050)
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Isiah Kiner-Falefa 21% (1,996)
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Anthony Volpe 14% (1,367)
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don't know/someone else 14% (1,330)
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Oswaldo Cabrera 9% (867)
Total votes: 9,610
(poll link for app users)
Aaron Judge Meets With Giants
November 23: Jon Morosi of MLB Network says that the meeting went well and that the Giants are expected to make an offer to Judge soon.
November 21: The Giants are planning to sit down with the market’s top free agent this week, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets they’re expected to meet with Aaron Judge. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the parties have a sit-down scheduled for tomorrow (on Twitter).
It’s notable but entirely unsurprising to see the Giants in the market for Judge. They’ve long been speculated as perhaps the top threat to the Yankees for the reigning AL MVP’s services. That’s both a reflection of the slugger’s ties to Northern California and, more importantly, to the abundance of financial breathing room at the Giants’ disposal. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, the Giants are as well-positioned as any team to make a major splash on the open market.
San Francisco’s 2023 payroll commitments are presently estimated around $133MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve opened seasons with player spending upwards of $200MM in previous seasons, and while those heights were reached before the pandemic, they’re still well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure. The long-term books are almost bare, with just over $20MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. By 2025, the club has only a $3.5MM player option for Wilmer Flores on the ledger. In that context, it’s easy to understand president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi declaring at the GM Meetings earlier this month that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”
That includes Judge, who’s expected to land the largest deal of the offseason. He set the AL home run record with 62 home runs and hit .311/.425/.686 through 157 games. It’d have been nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season, and while Judge certainly can’t be expected to replicate that kind of production, he’s now a career .284/.394/.583 hitter in over 3000 MLB plate appearances. Few players are more imposing offensive forces. Judge also typically rates as an above-average defensive right fielder and played reasonably well over 632 2/3 innings of center field work for the Yankees this past season. He’d probably be a better fit for the corner in spacious Oracle Park, but his play in right field would upgrade an outfield defense that was among the league’s worst this year.
MLBTR predicts Judge to land an eight-year deal worth $332MM; the $41.5MM average annual value would rank second all-time, while it’d be the largest overall guarantee for a free agent in history. While the Yankees and Giants are generally perceived as the favorites in the bidding, he’s also been linked to the Dodgers. Feinsand first reported last month that L.A. was considering the possibility of jumping into the Judge market while contemplating kicking Mookie Betts into second base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated the Dodgers’ interest last week.
Of course, there are myriad possibilities for the Giants (and other big-spending teams) beyond Judge. San Francisco has also been connected to the top free agent shortstops available — Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts — as well as center fielder Brandon Nimmo. San Francisco also has needs in the bullpen and could look to make a splash at the top of the rotation. There are a number of avenues for Zaidi and his front office to explore, starting at the very top of free agency.
MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency
Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.
Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.
As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”
To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.
The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.
That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.
Yankees Have Shown Preliminary Interest In DeGrom, Senga
The vast majority of Yankee fans are fixated on the team’s quest to re-sign reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, but the Yankees are also looking into potential pitching upgrades. Andy Martino of SNY reports the Yankees recently requested Jacob deGrom‘s medical records, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that they’ve been in touch with NPB ace Koudai Senga’s representatives.
Neither development is indicative of an all-out pursuit, of course. The Yankees have the financial wherewithal to sign any free agent in any given offseason, so it only stands to reason they’d make sure to be keenly aware of the potential market/asking price and the current medical status of any market’s top targets. At present, there’s no indication the Yankees have actually had a formal meeting about either pitcher.
The Yankees currently project to have a five-man rotation of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Domingo German, though righty Clarke Schmidt and prospects Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez could also pitch their way into the mix before long. German, 30, was solid through 15 games (14 starts) last season but was limited to 92 2/3 innings — minors and big leagues combined — while battling a shoulder impingement. Montas, acquired this summer with the expectation he’d be a key rotation piece down the stretch in ’22 and all season in ’23, struggled to a 6.35 ERA in eight starts with the Yankees. He also spent a bit more than two weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation.
As things stand, the Yankees project to carry a $206MM bottom-line payroll, per Roster Resource, although their luxury-tax bill is already north of $222MM. Judge alone could push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and both Senga and (especially) deGrom would come with notable average annual values, further ballooning the team’s luxury bill. Signing both Judge and deGrom seems like an extreme long shot, but speaking purely theoretically, that duo alone would likely push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of the luxury bracket.
As with the early stages of any offseason, a lot of this groundwork amounts to little more than due diligence. Requesting deGrom’s medicals does not serve as a clear portent for concurrent, all-out pursuits of the two-time Cy Young winner and the current AL MVP. The Yankees have already made an updated offer to Judge, GM Brian Cashman indicated last week, and both Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner have voiced on multiple occasions that Judge is the team’s top priority. However, no front office would simply presume a free agent is a lock to remain in place, and no team wants to be blindsided and unprepared in the event their homegrown star departs. The Yankees are no different and are surely gauging the entire market accordingly.
As far as the luxury tax is concerned, it bears mentioning, too, that if the Yankees do add a notable starter — whether as one of several additions or as their primary offseason pickup — doing so could enable Cashman and his staff to deal from the current group of in-house candidates. Montas and German, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at respective salaries of $7.7MM and $2.6MM, could be shipped elsewhere and slightly alter the financial outlook, speculatively speaking.
Both deGrom and Senga are among the most coveted pitchers on the market, though both come with red flags. Though he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and arguably the best pitcher on the planet when healthy, deGrom has missed considerable time in each of the past two seasons. Senga, of course, is still entirely untested against MLB opponents — dominant as his numbers in Japan may be. To this point, the Rangers and Mets have been the teams most prominently linked to deGrom. Senga, meanwhile, is hoping to pitch for a win-now club in a big market, agent Joel Wolfe recently said in an interview with NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been tied to the Giants, Mets, Padres, Red Sox, Cubs and Rangers. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported over the weekend that Senga recently visited Texas brass.
Mariners Interested In Gleyber Torres
The Mariners have interest in Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It isn’t known if the two sides are particularly close on any sort of trade, though Sherman theorizes that the M’s could potentially offer the Yankee some bullpen help in return — akin to Seattle’s deal for Teoscar Hernandez earlier this week.
Second base is an area of need for the Mariners, and Milwaukee’s Kolten Wong is another name reportedly on Seattle’s trade radar. Acquiring a second baseman would allow the Mariners to keep J.P. Crawford at shortstop, which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said is the team’s preferred scenario for 2023 and beyond. This even extends to this winter’s shortstop market, as Dipoto is hopeful of finding a top-tier shortstop who could be willing to move to the other middle infield position to accommodate Crawford. Trading for a player like Torres would allow the M’s to sidestep the free agent shortstop market altogether, and perhaps save some payroll space to address other needs.
Torres is a former shortstop himself, as the Yankees’ ill-fated attempt to use Torres as the everyday shortstop resulted in some lackluster defensive numbers. A greatly improved team defense was a big part of New York’s success in 2022, and Torres was part of that effort at second base, in the eyes of the Defensive Runs Saved (+9) and UZR/150 (+4.8) metrics. The Outs Above Average metric wasn’t as kind with only a -1 rating, yet there is certainly no doubt Torres has more defensive value at the keystone than at shortstop.
How Torres’ glovework might translate to the 2023 season is an open question, given the incoming rules limiting defensive shifts. Still, the Mariners have confidence in Crawford’s ability as an elite (when healthy) defensive shortstop, and he could potentially make up for some or any struggles Torres might have under the new rules. It could be that Seattle also thinks Torres’ bat can make up for any shortcomings in the field.
Torres hit .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs over 572 plate appearances last season, resulting in a 115 wRC+. It was a solid bounce-back from Torres’ 94 wRC+ in 2021, as there was some thought that the defensive change would also help Torre get more focused at the plate. Torres hit for a lot more power and made much more hard contact in 2022 than in 2021, though his strikeout and walk rates actually decreased to below-average numbers from the previous season. That said, there has always been some variance in Torres’ K% and BB% rates, even dating back to his best seasons (2018 and 2019), whereas 2022 marked the first time Torres’ hard-hit ball percentage topped the league average.
On the financial side, Torres is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and is projected to earn $9.8MM this winter in his third trip through the arb process. As a Super Two player, Torres has four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the usual three, and his projected 2023 salary represents another notable raise from his $6.25MM figure in 2022. While the Yankees are one of baseball’s biggest spenders, that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily willing to keep meeting this escalating cost, especially if they have any doubts that Torres’ production will continue to merit this price tag.
As well, New York has some intriguing cheaper options coming up from the farm system. Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza each made their MLB debuts last season, and star prospect Anthony Volpe is expected to get his first taste of the majors in 2023. Sherman writes that “the Yankees let executives at the GM meetings know they were open for business with their middle infielders,” meaning that both Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be dangled in order to both upgrade at other positions and to create some lineup space for the youngsters. The Yankees avoided arbitration with Kiner-Falefa yesterday, agreeing to a one-year, $6MM deal for the 2023 campaign.
There is enough turnover potential that Sherman “would be shocked if at least one [of Torres or Kiner-Falefa] was not moved” before Opening Day. Other than the newly re-signed Anthony Rizzo at first base, there’s a lot of potential flux around New York’s infield, given that DJ LeMahieu is still figuring out the best course of action to treat the toe injuries that hampered him last season. If surgery does become necessary for LeMahieu, that might make the Yankees less open to moving a proven contributor like Torres. The Yankees seem ready to open up the third base position by moving Josh Donaldson, yet the combination of Donaldson’s offensive decline, his poor clubhouse reputation, and his big contract (at least $29MM remaining through 2023) might mean the Yankees could just end up releasing Donaldson if they just want to on move on from the former AL MVP.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.
For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.
One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…
Latest
- The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
- The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.
Earlier Deals
- The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
- The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
- The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
- The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
- The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
- The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
- The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
- The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
- The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
- The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
- The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
- The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
- The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
- The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.
Yankees Claim Junior Fernandez From Pirates
The Yankees announced they’ve claimed reliever Junior Fernandez off waivers from the Pirates. Pittsburgh has designated him for assignment on Tuesday.
Fernandez will bring a blistering fastball to the Yankees — albeit one that has been difficult for the 25-year-old to command and that has not resulted in many strikeouts. Through 54 Major League innings to date, mostly with the Cardinls, Fernandez carries a tepid 5.17 ERA with a pedestrian 18.7% strikeout against a 13.9% walk rate. He’s generated a strong 13.6% swinging-strike rate in his career, however, and his average heater has crept up from 97 mph as a rookie in 2019 to a whopping 99 mph in this past season’s 18 2/3 frames.
Prior to the 2022 season, Fernandez relied exclusively on a four-seamer as his fastball. In 2022, however, he shifted away from that four-seamer in favor of a sinker, holding his sweltering velocity and enjoying an uptick in an already strong ground-ball rate. He’s induced grounders at a 49.4% clip in his career but sat at a gaudy 58.9% clip in 2022. The newly adopted power sinker and massive ground-ball rate is a profile for which the Yankees, in particular, have shown an affinity in recent seasons.
Fernandez is out of minor league options, so the Yankees will either need to attempt to pass him through waivers themselves at some point between now and Opening Day — or else commit to carrying him on their Opening Day roster. If he makes it through the winter on the 40-man roster, Spring Training will serve as an audition for him. In 83 career innings at the Triple-A level, Fernandez has a 4.12 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate against a 10.5% walk rate.