Steinbrenner: Yankees Will Soon Open Extension Talks With Aaron Judge
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke to various members of the media today and gave some updates regarding the team. Perhaps most notably, he said that the club plans to engage Aaron Judge and his representatives to talk about a contract extension soon. (Links from Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Erik Boland of Newsday.) He says that he instructed general manager Brian Cashman to focus on immediate needs first due to the lockout creating a time crunch for roster building, but that the talks would begin before Opening Day on April 7th.
The slugging right fielder is entering his final year of team control. Since the 2021 season ended, Judge has frequently said that he is open to an extension that would keep him in the Bronx beyond this year. However, the star outfielder indicated yesterday he’s not interested in carrying on negotiations beyond Opening Day.
“If we’re able to talk and get something done in spring training before the season starts, that would be ideal, especially since this is an important year,” Judge told reporters (including Andy Martino of SNY). “We’ve got a lot of things to focus on during the course of the year, winning a division and winning a championship here in New York. I don’t want contract talks or extensions and all that talk to be a distraction throughout the year. So, if we’re able to agree to something here in the spring before we head up to New York, that’s wonderful and it would be an honor. If not, we’ll talk after the season.”
Needless to say, an extension for Judge won’t be cheap. In 572 games to this point in his career, he’s hit 158 home runs and has a slash line of .276/.386/.544, producing a wRC+ of 151 and 24.3 fWAR. The three-time All-Star is coming off one of the best showings of his career. Judge tallied 633 plate appearances last season and hit .287/.373/.544 with 39 home runs. As he has throughout his time in the big leagues, he posted top-of-the-scale exit velocities and rated as a capable defender in right field.
Judge certainly won’t feel any financial pressure to take a below-market deal. Not only is he six months from free agency, he has already banked upwards of $13MM in arbitration earnings. More importantly, he’s in line to more than double that this upcoming season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Judge for a hefty $17.1MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. He’s slated to hit the market next winter in advance of his age-31 campaign, where he could be one of the top players available if he doesn’t sign an extension in the coming weeks.
Latest On Freddie Freeman’s Market
It’s been apparent since the Braves acquired and extended first baseman Matt Olson that Freddie Freeman is likely headed elsewhere in free agency, but Freeman made that all but official this afternoon when he thanked Braves fans and bid them and the organization farewell on Instagram this afternoon.
“…Thank you from the bottom of my heart,” wrote Freeman. “It has been a blast to have you cheer for me and I hope I was able to bring smiles to a lot of your homes over the years. I gave everything I had day in and day out and I hope you guys saw that as well. Although our time has come to an end, I look forward to seeing and playing in front of you all again. When that time comes, I hope you remember all the wonderful memories we made together. I love you Braves Country! Champions Forever!”
It’s not clear whether Freeman’s message is a portent for an agreement with a new team or simply an acknowledgement that the first chapter of his storied career has drawn to a close. Several possible landing spots for the 2020 NL MVP have dried up in the past few days, as the Braves not only essentially replaced him with Olson, but the Yankees struck up a deal to bring Anthony Rizzo back to the Bronx.
Reports recently have suggested that Freeman remains of interest to the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rays and Padres, although each destination comes with its own reasons for some degree of skepticism. Freeman has reportedly sought a six-year deal that would carry him through his age-37 season, and the Dodgers tend to prefer higher annual salaries and shorter terms than that six-year target. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this week that L.A. is “believed” to have offered a four-year deal to Freeman that includes a sizable annual value.
Looking to Freeman’s other reported suitors, the Padres have spent more than a year trying to move Eric Hosmer, who still has four years and $59MM remaining on his contract. As explored more in depth here at MLBTR yesterday, it’s difficult to see that deal coming together without several other pieces falling into place first.
The Red Sox have been comfortable exceeding the luxury tax in the past, but they opted not to do so and have at pair of interesting young first base/designated hitter types already in Bobby Dalbec and prospect Tristan Casas. It’s doubtful that either would stand in the way of Boston signing a player of Freeman’s caliber, but the luxury tax concerns present a more feasible roadblock. Still, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted this morning that the Yankees believe their archrivals’ interest in Freeman is sincere.
As for the Rays, their interest is said to be real but also comes with the most obvious hurdles of the bunch. Tampa Bay’s payroll is perennially among the lowest in the sport, and while the long-term books are exceptionally clean (as noted when first examining their reported offer), a free agent of Freeman’s caliber heading to Tampa is entirely without precedent. It was a surprise several years ago to see the Rays reel in Charlie Morton on a $30MM guarantee that spanned two seasons; Freeman could command an annual salary in that range over a longer term. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that Tampa Bay has remained “aggressive” in its surprising pursuit of Freeman, but an actual deal between the two parties would still register as one of the largest free-agent surprises ever.
The lack of obvious suitors for a massive five- or six-year commitment and the recent decisions by the Braves and Yankees to move on has created a sense among some executives in the game that Freeman’s camp overplayed its hand, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets. That’ll be determined by Freeman’s ultimate contract, of course, but his path to the massive contract that once appeared to be a given looks a bit less clear now than it did when the Yankees and Braves were still in the market for his services.
Yankees, A’s Discussing Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas Trades
It has been apparent for months now that the Athletics planned on engaging in a massive fire sale this offseason, shipping out their arbitration-eligible players for younger and cheaper players with more team control. Since the lockout has ended, they’ve fulfilled the prophecy by sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets, Matt Olson to the Braves and Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. It seems possible that Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are going to be next in line. In recent days, the two hurlers have been connected to the White Sox and Twins, with Montas also garnering interest from the Rays. We can now add the Yankees to the list of interested parties, per Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
The Yankees have been busy since the end of the lockout, most notably landing Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt in a trade with the Twins, as well as last night’s signing of Anthony Rizzo. Despite those additions to the lineup, the pitching staff remains largely unchanged.
The rotation comes with tremendous upside but also has its share of uncertainty beyond ace Gerrit Cole. Jordan Montgomery was excellent last year, but that was after two seasons mostly lost to injury and a shortened 2020 campaign. After throwing 75 1/3 MLB innings over 2018-2020, he shot up to 157 1/3 last year. Similarly, Jameson Taillon only threw 37 1/3 innings in 2019 and then missed all of 2020 before shooting up to 144 1/3 last year and undergoing ankle surgery after the season. Luis Severino only pitched 12 innings in 2019 before being shelved by various injuries and ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery. After missing all of the 2020 campaign, he was able to return and log six MLB innings last year. Domingo German is dealing with shoulder issues and likely to begin the season on the IL. The club does have other options around, such as Nestor Cortes Jr., Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil, but they all come with question marks of their own due to their limited track records.
Adding in quality arms like those of Manaea and Montas would be a fairly sensible way of providing an extra degree of certainty for the staff. Manaea pitched 179 1/3 innings last year with a 3.91 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season and is projected to earn a salary of $10.2MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Montas, meanwhile, tossed 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He’s projected for a $5.2MM salary and comes with an extra year of control.
Yankees fans might speculate about whether Luke Voit could be involved in such a trade, now that Rizzo is in the fold. With the Athletics having just traded Olson, they could presumably slot Voit into regular first base duty in Oakland. However, Voit only has three years of club control remaining before he hits free agency, while Oakland has been using this fire sale largely to stock up on prospects or players with very limited MLB exposure. Voit and his projected $5.4MM arbitration salary have more in common with the players Oakland has been trading away than those they’ve been acquiring.
Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo
The Yankees have settled on a first baseman, reportedly agreeing to terms with Anthony Rizzo on a two-year, $32MM guarantee. The deal pays the Sports One Athlete Management client $16MM salaries annually and gives him the opportunity to opt out after the 2022 campaign. The contract is pending a physical.
Rizzo will be returning to the Bronx, where he finished the 2021 season. New York acquired him from the Cubs in advance of the trade deadline, and he hit .249/.340/.428 in 200 plate appearances in pinstripes down the stretch. That was more or less in line with the .248/.346/.446 mark he’d put up in 376 trips to the plate with Chicago over the season’s first couple months.
It was the second straight season of reasonable but unexciting production for Rizzo. He’d posted a .222/.342/.414 line during the shortened 2020 campaign. Going back two seasons, he owns a .240/.343/.432 mark over 819 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, that production checks in nine percentage points above the league average hitter’s. It’s actually a bit below the standard (.254/.335/.455, 113 wRC+) set by first basemen around the league.
It’s been a rather sharp downturn for Rizzo as he’s entered his 30’s. He broke out with the Cubs in 2014, his age-24 campaign. Over the next six seasons, he never posted a wRC+ below 126. Overall, Rizzo hit .284/.388/.513 between 2014-19, with his 141 wRC+ in that stretch tying for twelfth among 375 qualified hitters.
Rizzo was a lineup anchor for the Cubs as they emerged from their rebuild, and he was also highly-regarded for his leadership and presence in the clubhouse. That combination made him perhaps the face of the Cubs’ most successful run in over a century. He appeared in three consecutive All-Star games from 2014-16, finishing in the top ten in NL MVP voting each season. Rizzo played a key role on Chicago’s curse-breaking World Series winner in 2016, and he remained highly productive for three years beyond that even as the team never recaptured that level of postseason success.
The Yankees would be thrilled with their investment if he were to recapture anything near that form next season. Yet there’s clearly some trepidation around the league regarding Rizzo’s back-to-back relative down years. Just 12 months ago, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported that the Cubs had put a five-year, $70MM extension offer on the table. Rizzo declined Chicago’s overture, preferring to bet on himself after his middle-of-the-road 2020 season. After continuing to produce at a similar level over a full schedule in 2021, though, he essentially finds himself accepting a pillow contract and betting on a bounceback once again.
To be sure, Rizzo still does a lot of things well. He continues to boast an enviable combination of contact and raw power. Rizzo’s 81.5% contact rate and 15.1% strikeout percentage last season were both well better than average; so too were his 90.1 MPH average exit velocity and 41.1% hard contact rate. That neither Rizzo’s bat-to-ball skills nor his bat speed have evaporated lend hope he may again find some of his old form.
It’s also possible that forthcoming rules changes could aid Rizzo as he ages (albeit not during the upcoming season). The left-handed hitter has become more pull-oriented over the past two seasons than he’d been throughout his career. Not coincidentally, he has faced a higher rate of defensive shifts that have contributed to lackluster results on balls in play. Rizzo’s .246 batting average on balls in play since the start of 2020 ranks 108th out of 114 qualified hitters. That may continue to be an issue this year, but it’s expected MLB will implement restrictions on defensive shifting beginning with the 2023 campaign.
However one feels about Rizzo’s long-term projection at the plate, there’s not as much question about the value he brings on the other side of the ball. He’s a four-time Gold Glove Award winner who was unanimously well-regarded by public defensive metrics up through 2020. Defensive Runs Saved felt he dropped off in that regard last year, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average remained bullish on his work. Rizzo seems a fairly definitive upgrade with the glove over incumbent first baseman Luke Voit, who has always been a bat-first player — even relative to the lower defensive standards of the position.
With Rizzo back in the fold, it stands to reason Voit’s name will come up in trade talks over the coming weeks. They could coexist as a first base/designated hitter pairing on many rosters, but the Yankees don’t have many DH at-bats to spare. They’ve leaned heavily on the position to keep Giancarlo Stanton from having to shoulder too significant a workload in the outfield. Even if Stanton were capable of assuming more defensive responsibilities than he has in the recent past, New York already has a projected starting outfield of Joey Gallo, Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge.
More broadly, it has become apparent in recent months the Yankees weren’t fully committed to Voit, the 2020 MLB home run leader. They traded for Rizzo at the deadline, then reportedly came close to pulling the trigger on a subsequent deal that would’ve shipped Voit out over the summer. That never came to fruition, but the Yankees were again tied to bigger names at first base this offseason. New York was in contact with the A’s about Matt Olson before Oakland traded him to the Braves. More recently, they were considered among the top handful of suitors for Olson’s predecessor in Atlanta.
With Rizzo returning to the Bronx, it no longer seems the Yankees will be in that Freddie Freeman mix. The Braves have already moved on to Olson, leaving Freeman’s future home one of the most fascinating remaining storylines of the offseason. Recent reports have generally cast the Dodgers as the leading contender for the 2020 NL MVP, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Padres reported to be on the outskirts of his market.
Wherever he ends up, Freeman is sure to command a deal much loftier than the one the Yankees are guaranteeing Rizzo. New York has been wary of making a long-term commitment to free agents this winter, with the desire to work out an extension with Judge seemingly looming over the offseason calculus. Yet the recent trade for Josh Donaldson and today’s agreement with Rizzo solidify that the Yankees will exceed the competitive balance tax threshold in 2022 after dipping below the marker last season.
After today’s agreement, New York has around $244MM in real payroll and $258MM in CBT obligations on the books this year, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (Luxury tax calculations are determined by summing contracts’ average annual values and player benefits as opposed to looking strictly at actual year-over-year salaries). They’ll pay a 20% fee on every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, as well as a 32% tax on every dollar between $250MM and $270MM. They’d face even higher penalties for exceeding $270MM and $290MM, and it’s not clear how far owner Hal Steinbrenner and the front office are willing to push things this season.
New York will see the salaries of both Aroldis Chapman ($16MM) and Zack Britton ($14MM) come off the books after this year. Judge and Gallo, both of whom have lofty projected arbitration tallies in 2022, will be hitting free agency. There should be decent long-term maneuverability for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff. How much more they’ll do in the short term remains to be seen, but a Voit trade at least looks like a very plausible next step as they try to round out the 2022 roster.
Jordan Brown first reported the Yankees and Rizzo were in agreement on a two-year, $32MM guarantee with an opt-out after 2022. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported he’ll be paid flat salaries of $16MM in each year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Unvaccinated Mets And Yankees Not Currently Allowed To Play Home Games
Members of the Yankees and Mets that are not vaccinated against COVID-19 are not eligible to play baseball in New York City, per a report from Stefan Bondy and Dennis Young of the New York Daily News. As noted in the piece, the Yankees and Mets will be affected by the city’s private employer mandate in the same way as Kyrie Irving, whose unvaccinated status has left him ineligible to play home games for the Brooklyn Nets or games hosted by the New York Knicks. (For separate reasons, Irving is also ineligible to cross the Canadian border to play the Toronto Raptors.)
A New York City Hall spokesperson tells the reporters that, although the mandates could change along with the reality of the pandemic, there will not be special exemptions given out to the teams.
This could potentially have significant on-field ramifications for both clubs. As noted in the piece, it is believed that each club has, or perhaps had, some key members still not having received a vaccine. If any of them decide to follow in Irving’s footsteps and refuse to get the necessary shots, they could find themselves sitting out half of their team’s games, or more, when Toronto-based games are factored in.
The Yankees released comment to various reporters, including Lindsey Adler of The Athletic, which reads, “On behalf of the Yankees, [team president] Randy Levine is working with City Hall and all other appropriate officials on this matter. We will have no further comment.” Adler also relays a quote from Aaron Judge, who is rumored to be unvaccinated, on the matter:
“I’m so focused on getting to the first game of spring training. So I think we’ll cross that bridge when the time comes. Right now, so many things could change. So I’m not really too worried about that right now.”
It was recently reported that the new CBA contained a detail that players who miss games in Toronto because of vaccination status will not be paid nor receive service time for those games. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports that the same would apply here. It’s perhaps worth noting that Judge currently has five years and 51 days of MLB service time, meaning he needs 121 more days to reach six years and hit free agency. If he were to miss more than half the 186-day season for vaccine reasons and not accrue service time, he would come up short, thus delaying his free agency by another year.
Marly Rivera of ESPN adds some more information, (Twitter links) saying that this has been known for about 48 hours now, with the players’ union and team both working with the Mayor’s office. Both camps are confident the situation will be resolved before Opening Day. The Yankees are scheduled to play their first home game April 7th, while the Mets won’t be at home until April 15th.
Yankees, Phillip Evans Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees have agreed to a deal with infielder/outfielder Phillip Evans, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Greg Joyce of the New York Post tweeted yesterday that Evans had been spotted at Yankees camp. Presumably, it’s a minor league pact for the CAA client.
Evans, 29, had a huge shoeing in a tiny sample with the Pirates in 2020 when he batted .359/.444/.487 through 45 plate appearances. He got out to a decent start in his second season with the Bucs last year but ultimately wound up finishing the year with a .206/.312/.299 batting line in a career-high 247 plate appearances. Overall, Evans is a career .231/.331/.319 hitter in 353 plate appearances between the Mets and Pirates. He played all four corner positions with Pittsburgh this past season, but the majority of Evans’ professional innings have come at shortstop, third base and second base — in that order.
Evans will give the Yankees some versatile depth with a reasonably productive track record in the upper minors to stash in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He’s a career .274/.349/.441 hitter with 42 homers, 74 doubles and seven triples in 1438 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman
The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains. As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.
Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal. The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins. The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.
Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s. Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago. Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.
Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.
Guardians Among Teams Exploring Matt Olson Trade
Matt Olson is among the highest-profile trade targets on the market at the moment, and although the teams most often linked to him have been the Yankees, Rangers and Braves (presumably as a fallback if Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere), Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Guardians are also “in the mix” for the Athletics’ All-Star first baseman. Cleveland is currently exploring upgrades of varying quality at first base, in the outfield and in the bullpen, Rosenthal adds.
Armed with one of the deepest farm systems in the sport, the Guardians could easily put together a compelling package to pry Olson from Oakland. Cleveland is particularly deep in terms of controllable middle infield prospects, with shortstops Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias all climbing the ranks behind presumptive big league double-play tandem Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez.
It’s possible that Gimenez himself could be of interest to the A’s or another trade partner; the 23-year-old switch-hitter struggled in 210 plate appearances with Cleveland last season but had a big showing in Triple-A and isn’t far removed from being regarded as one of the sport’s most promising prospects himself. He’s also controllable via arbitration through at least the 2026 season. Of course, Cleveland is deep in prospects at other positions as well. Outfielders George Valera and Steven Kwan, righty Daniel Espino and third baseman/outfielder Nolan Jones have all garnered attention on prospect rankings.
As for the fit regarding Olson, it’s a pretty straightforward one. No team in baseball got less production from its first basemen than Cleveland did in ’21. Bobby Bradley, Yu Chang, Jake Bauers, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor and even Harold Ramirez (two plate appearances) and Roberto Perez (one plate appearance) all saw time in the lineup at first base but combined for a disastrous .207/.275/.389 batting line. Olson, meanwhile, hit a career-best .271/.371/.540 while blasting 39 home runs and playing his typical brand of Gold Glove caliber defense.
The question for the Guardians is whether they’d be able to retain Olson beyond the 2023 season, when he’s currently scheduled to become a free agent. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Olson to earn $12MM in arbitration this coming season, and he’d be owed one more raise for that ’23 campaign. If Olson replicates this past season’s production, he’d surely command more than $30MM in total over the next two seasons.
That’s a steep price for a Guardians club that is also looking at two more years of control over franchise cornerstone Jose Ramirez. A perennial MVP candidate, Ramirez has seen his own name bandied about the rumor mill, though he’s seemed like a long-shot, at best, to be moved this offseason. On the one hand, pairing up Ramirez and Olson would give the Guardians a dynamic heart-of-the-order pairing around which to build for the next two years.
It’d be a surprise to see the typically low-payroll Guardians extend both (or even one) to the type of nine-figure deal either could command, but a 2022-23 core of Olson, Ramirez, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Franmil Reyes would give Cleveland plenty of high-quality talent at the heart of the roster. And, if things did truly go south and push the front office to consider a sell-off, both Olson and Ramirez would remain among the most sought-after players available whenever they hit the market.
Yankees Acquire Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ben Rortvedt From Twins For Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela
The Bronx Bombers’ quiet offseason has come to an abrupt end, as the Yankees and Twins have combined on a blockbuster of a five-player deal. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and catcher Ben Rortvedt are all heading to the Yankees, while the Twins will pick up catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Gio Urshela. The $50MM still owed on Donaldson’s contract is being entirely absorbed by the Yankees, as per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. To create space on their 40-man roster, New York placed reliever Zack Britton on the 60-day injured list.
Donaldson has a five-team no-trade clause, though it isn’t known if the Yankees were one of the five clubs on his list, or if he waived his clause to head to New York. The Yankees will pay a $2MM assignment bonus due to the trade, and in being moved, the $16MM club option on Donaldson for 2024 now becomes a mutual option with a $6MM buyout, rather than an $8MM buyout.
This gigantic deal creates a shakeup on the rosters of both clubs, and ends Kiner-Falefa’s Minnesota tenure after just one day. The Twins only acquired Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers for Mitch Garver on Saturday, but now the former Gold Glover has been flipped as part of a much bigger deal that sees the Twins move a major salary off their books. Another flip doesn’t appear to be forthcoming, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal says the Twins plan to use Sanchez behind the plate.
After a winter of speculation about how the Yankees would address their infield, the Bronx Bombers have now installed Donaldson as their new everyday third baseman and Kiner-Falefa as their new shortstop. (New York was linked to IKF earlier this winter, so the team has finally landed him even after his brief stopover in Minnesota.) DJ LeMahieu may float between first and second base, sharing time with Gleyber Torres at the keystone and Luke Voit at first base. The DH spot is also a possibility to give at-bats to players, depending on how much outfield time Giancarlo Stanton can handle.
All this to be said, we certainly can’t rule out the Yankees making yet another big splash, since the team has been linked to both Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson to address first base. If either of those players are obtained, Voit would certainly look like an immediate trade candidate, and even dealing LeMahieu or Torres could be a possibility depending on what direction the Yankees wish to take.
Donaldson is no stranger to the AL East, having enjoyed some of his best years (including his 2015 MVP season) while playing with the Blue Jays from 2015-18. The 36-year-old’s production hasn’t declined much since those years in Toronto, as while injury concerns have cropped up as Donaldson has gotten deeper into his 30s, Donaldson is still a dangerous bat. The third baseman hit .247/.352/.475 with 26 homers over 543 PA with the Twins last season, and continued to post his usual elite-level hard-contact and walk rates.
Defensive metrics are mixed on Donaldson’s third base glovework, but New York is hoping that Kiner-Falefa can pick up any defensive slack on the left side of the infield. The winner of the AL Gold Glove Award as a third baseman with Texas in 2020, Kiner-Falefa has also been impressive over 1498 career innings shortstop in the view of the Defensive Runs Saved (+14) and UZR/150 (+1.7) metrics, though the Outs Above Average metric (-7) was very down on his shortstop glovework in 2021. The Fielding Bible ranked Kiner-Falefa third among all shortstops in their voting for the 2021 season.
Kiner-Falefa is controlled through two more arbitration seasons, thus essentially making him a bridge to what the Yankees hope will be their shortstop of the future. All winter long, New York has reportedly resisted getting into the hunt for the top tier of the free agent shortstop market due to the team’s belief in star prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. With Peraza maybe approaching his MLB debut as early as this season and Volpe perhaps coming by 2023, the Yankees wanted to retain flexibility at shortstop rather than lock themselves into a ten-year commitment to a Carlos Correa or a Corey Seager.
Rortvedt is the least famous of the five names involved in the swap, and he hit only .169/.229/.281 over his first 98 PA in the majors, all with Minnesota last season. While Rortvedt has hit better in the minors, he isn’t expected to be another Sanchez at the plate, as the Yankees seem to intend Rortvedt to platoon with Kyle Higashioka in something of a defense-first tandem. Given all the other pop in New York’s lineup, focusing on glovework behind the plate seems like a fair tradeoff, particularly since Sanchez’s defense has been a topic of controversy for years amongst Yankees fans. Again, it isn’t out of the question that the aggressive Yankees could make another move to add a more proven veteran to the catching mix.
Payroll-wise, the Yankees take on Donaldson’s $50MM, the projected $4.9MM for Kiner-Falefa’s 2022 salary, and Rortvedt’s minimum salary. Urshela’s $6.55MM salary for 2022 and Sanchez’s projected $7.9MM salary come off the books, leaving the Bombers with a luxury tax number of roughly $242.7MM (according to Roster Resource). This is well over the new $230MM tax threshold but under the “second tier” of $250MM that would trigger a stiffer financial penalty for the Yankees. The club made a point of ducking under the luxury tax line in 2021 and thus resetting its clock, so the Yankees would only have to pay a first-timer penalty of 20 percent on the overage for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM.
The savings are much more profound for the Twins, who get Donaldson off their books and have now freed up some longer-term payroll space. According to SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link), the Twins didn’t pick up Kiner-Falefa with the intention of immediately moving him again, yet the club was ultimately swayed at the Yankees’ offer to take all of Donaldson’s contract.
This isn’t to say that Minnesota is necessarily looking to tear down the roster, as much of Donaldson’s 2022 salary space has now been filled by Sanchez, Urshela, and even Sonny Gray, acquired earlier today from the Reds. After spending just under $100MM on payroll in 2021, the Twins have around $94.2MM on the books for 2022 at the moment, giving them more space for other moves if they even approach their $125MM-$131MM full season payrolls from the 2018-19 seasons.
Owner Jim Pohlad said last summer that the Twins wouldn’t be rebuilding, and while it seems as though the Twins are still firmly planning to contend in 2022, they’ve created more maneuverability for themselves in landing Sanchez (one remaining year before free agency) and Urshela (two years of control). Should things go south for the Twins in 2022 as they did in 2021, therefore, the team may be able to more cleanly pivot towards moving players at the trade deadline, and perhaps at that point consider a larger-scale rebuild.
It wasn’t long ago that Sanchez was seen as a key to the Yankees’ future, breaking out with huge power numbers that seemed to put him next in the long line of big-hitting Bronx catchers. However, Sanchez has produced average-to-mediocre numbers in three of the last four years, leading to speculation this past fall that Sanchez could even be a non-tender candidate. Clearly, hanging onto the catcher proved worthwhile for the Yankees, as they were able to make him a big trade chip in this major swap.
Between his defensive issues and his evolution into a three-true-outcomes type of player, it remains to be seen if Sanchez can find a fresh start in Minneapolis. He wouldn’t be the first player to blossom outside of the New York pressure cooker (his new teammate Gray is a prime example), and Sanchez still provides strong power and on-base numbers. Sanchez still makes plenty of hard contact, but just making that contact has been a persistent issue, as Sanchez has been one of the game’s more strikeout-prone hitters for five seasons running.
Assuming the Twins do indeed plan to keep Sanchez, he’ll pair with Ryan Jeffers (a more defensive-minded catcher) as Garver’s replacement. Elsewhere in the infield, a situation that seemed settled with Kiner-Falefa’s addition is now once again thrown up in the air.
While Urshela has some experience as a shortstop, it seems much more likely that he’ll take Donaldson’s spot at third base, as the hot corner is Urshela’s usual position and he has shown himself to be a very solid defender. Urshela basically came out of nowhere to post huge numbers for the Yankees in 2019 and 2020, quickly making himself an infield regular amidst several injuries to New York’s roster during the 2019 campaign.
However, Urshela ran into some health issues himself this past season, missing time amidst a COVID-19 outbreak in the New York clubhouse and then a left hamstring strain. This could explain Urshela’s dropoff to a modest .267/.301/.419 slash line and 14 home runs over 442 PA, while his walk and strikeout rates plummeted from their 2020 levels.
The Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from both of their new players, and there is some obvious upside to the club’s plan. Should Sanchez and Urshela return to their 2019 form, that will be more than make up for the loss of Donaldson’s bat. The scope of this deal would seem to hint that at least one notable follow-up move will be coming, as the Twins now again need to address a shortstop void that Kiner-Falefa had seemingly filled. Jorge Polanco could move back to shortstop in a pinch but the Twins prefer him as a second baseman going forward.
Since Urshela can at least handle shortstop on a part-time basis, the Twins could also opt to land another third baseman, thus allowing for an Urshela/Polanco timeshare at shortstop and a Polanco/Luis Arraez split at second base. Daniel Robertson and Tim Beckham are also in camp on minor league deals for further infield options, and infield prospect Jose Miranda‘s big 2021 season has put him on the verge of his MLB debut.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa were being dealt to the Yankees, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that Sanchez and Urshela were going to Minnesota. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported Rortvedt’s inclusion in the trade.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Yankees Sign Ronald Guzman To Minor League Contract
The Yankees have signed Ronald Guzman to a minor league deal, journalist Junior Matrille reports (Twitter link). Guzman will be invited to the Yankees’ big league spring camp.
A notable prospect during his time in the Rangers farm system, Guzman couldn’t translate the hitting prowess he displayed in the minors over to his 826 PA in the majors, as he batted only .227/.304/.414 and struck out 238 times. After three seasons of failing to truly break through as a regular in the Texas lineup, Guzman’s 2021 season was cut short after only seven games, as he suffered a torn meniscus while playing left field and had to undergo season-ending surgery.
Ironically, Guzman’s greatest day as a big leaguer took place in Yankee Stadium, when he hit three home runs to lead the Rangers to a 12-7 victory over the Bronx Bombers on August 10, 2018. Perhaps Yankees GM Brian Cashman had a memory of that game in mind when signing Guzman, or maybe the club is simply taking a flier of a minor league deal to see if Guzman can unlock his potential in a new environment.
Should he perform well in Spring Training, Guzman’s left-handed bat could earn him some playing time on a Yankee roster that is deep in right-handed hitters. In theory, Guzman could work as a complement to the right-handed hitting Luke Voit at first base, or Guzman could pick up some DH at-bats when Giancarlo Stanton is in the outfield.