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Yankees Will Tender Gary Sanchez

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The Yankees plan to tender a contract to catcher Gary Sanchez prior to tonight’s 7pm CT non-tender deadline, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  As per the “37 percent” projection method used by MLBTR’s Matt Swart, Sanchez is projected to earn $5.5MM in his second trip through the arbitration process.

The idea of Sanchez as a non-tender candidate would have been unthinkable even a year ago, and yet it arose as a possibility in the wake of a disastrous 2020 season for the catcher.  Sanchez hit only .147/.253/.365 over 178 plate appearances, continued to struggle defensively, and saw Kyle Higashioka mostly assume starting catcher duties down the stretch and into the Yankees’ postseason run.

Coming on the heels of a down year in 2018 and even a 2019 season that saw Sanchez post big power numbers but a .232 batting average and .316 OBP, there was some thought that the Yankees might just cut ties entirely with the former All-Star.  With the Yankees rumored to be looking to duck under the luxury tax threshold, Sanchez’s salary would have been seen as expendable.

On the other hand, there was also sound reasoning in keeping Sanchez.  $5.5MM isn’t a big cost for a player (especially a catcher) with Sanchez’s power potential, and he was certainly far from the only notable star who struggled within the small sample size of the 60-game 2020 campaign and all of the unusual circumstances surrounding the season.  Getting rid of Sanchez would also mean that New York would’ve had to find a replacement behind the plate, which might have also been a costly endeavor unless the team signed a platoon-type to split time with Higashioka.

It still isn’t out the question that Sanchez could be traded before Opening Day, though finding a deal would be tricky.  The Yankees surely wouldn’t want to move Sanchez when his value is at its lowest, though rival teams also obviously wouldn’t want to pay a premium given the catcher’s rough year.

At Least Six Teams Showing Interest In James McCann

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Yadier Molina has drawn the most headlines among catchers early in free agency, in part due to the willingness of both him and his agent to go on-record to discuss the veteran’s market. However, James McCann is drawing interest from a similar collection of teams, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), with the Yankees, Mets, Cardinals, Angels and incumbent White Sox among the clubs to express some interest in the free-agent backstop. The Phillies would have interest in the event that J.T. Realmuto signs elsewhere, Heyman adds.

Given that each of these clubs, with the exception of the White Sox and Phillies, has already expressed interest in Molina, it’s not much of a surprise that they’d also at least gauge McCann’s asking price. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving on from Gary Sanchez for months, while the Mets currently lack a starting-caliber backstop on their roster. The Angels got a big year out of Max Stassi in 2020, but that was obviously a rather limited sample and Stassi’s prior track record is less impressive.

The Cardinals may raise some eyebrows, given their interest in retaining Molina, but it’s only logical that with Molina exploring other options they’d do the same. Should Molina get the two-year deal he’s seeking from another club, the Cards could pivot to McCann or simply remain in-house and turn the keys over to 26-year-old Andrew Knizner.

As for the White Sox, their interest in keeping McCann is well known, but it’s unlikely to result in a deal. The ChiSox signed Yasmani Grandal to a franchise-record four-year, $73MM contract last winter, and with three years remaining on that arrangement there’s simply no room for McCann to get everyday at-bats. McCann spoke earlier this offseason about his free agency, telling NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien that he feels he’s earned the opportunity to be a team’s starting catcher. The White Sox can’t offer that with Grandal under contract.

It’s hard to dispute McCann’s feelings after a pair of terrific seasons with the South Siders. While he was non-tendered by the Tigers after a dismal 2018 campaign, McCann has more than bounced back in Chicago; he’s taken his game to new heights. McCann was a bit shy of a league-average bat as Detroit’s primary catcher in 2017, but he’s broken out with a .276/.334/.474 batting line in 587 plate appearances with the White Sox (116 wRC+).

He’s made strides in terms of hard-hit rate and exit velocity, supporting that offensive breakout, and McCann also improved defensively quite a bit this past season. He’s always been adept at controlling runners (career 35.8 percent caught-stealing rate), but McCann prioritized improving his pitch-framing this past offseason, and the results were strong. Statcast reflects that McCann went from one of the worst catchers in the game at framing pitches on the bottom of the zone to one of the game’s best. It’s a small sample, to be sure, but it’d be a reach to suggest that McCann simply lucked his way from getting 44.8 percent of such pitches called all the way up to 61.8 percent.

The Phillies probably aren’t the only club who view McCann as a “Plan B” to Realmuto, but there also figure to be teams that know they cannot afford Realmuto and are thus willing to act more quickly. McCann and his agents will have to determine whether they’re better served taking one of those early offers or holding out until Realmuto is off the market. The latter route could lead to increased interest, but it’s also possible some teams that are willing to act now will have already filled their need at catcher or spent the majority of their offseason budget by that point.

MLBTR Poll: Gary Sanchez’s Yankees Future

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By next Wednesday’s non-tender deadline, the Yankees will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Gary Sánchez. The 27-year-old (28 next week) originally signed with the New York organization as an international amateur back in 2009. He emerged as a top prospect and burst onto the MLB scene with an otherworldly final two months in 2016. He finished as runner-up in AL Rookie of the Year voting that year after hitting 20 home runs in just 229 plate appearances.

Sánchez backed that up with an elite 2017 season that saw him garner some down-ballot MVP support. After an injury-hampered, disappointing 2018 effort, Sánchez seemingly reemerged as one of the game’s premier catchers in 2019. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off completely in 2020, as he hit .147/.253/.365 with a woeful 36% strikeout rate. By the postseason, Sánchez had mostly fallen behind Kyle Higashioka on the depth chart.

He’s also drawn his share of criticism for his work behind the plate. Some of that is deserved, as his 52 passed balls over the past five seasons leads the sport. Sánchez generally rated as a slightly below-average pitch framer as well. But his rocket arm has helped him cut down 32.6% of attempted basestealers in his career, well above the league average of 27.2%. Altogether, he’s a generally average defensive catcher in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (although he did rate rather poorly in 2020).

So, how to proceed with a player who has had his share of ups and downs? Over his career, Sánchez has been plenty productive in the Bronx. His .236/.320/.502 career slash line works out to a 117 wRC+, indicating he’s been seventeen points better than the league average hitter. Among qualified catchers, only Yasmani Grandal has edged out Sánchez offensively since the latter broke into the league. Sánchez’s projected $5.1MM – $6.4MM arbitration salary would be a bargain if he can rediscover that form at the plate. But the backstop’s most recent season was atrocious, leaving the Yankees’ front office in a bind.

There isn’t another clear fit at catcher on the current roster. A team with World Series aspirations can’t feel comfortable turning the primary job over to Higashioka. Free agency offers a few options. J.T. Realmuto is the prize, but James McCann and Yadier Molina look like potential regulars. (The Yankees have shown some interest in Molina already). To non-tender Sánchez would be a tough blow, though, considering how recently he looked like a franchise cornerstone. They could explore the trade market, but Sánchez isn’t exactly teeming with surplus value, as Craig Edwards of FanGraphs recently explored.

Assuming opposing teams aren’t willing to give up much value in trade, where should GM Brian Cashman and the front office go from here?

(poll link for app users)

 

Yadier Molina Says Five Teams Have Shown Interest

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Yadier Molina has long stated that he wants to remain with the Cardinals, and he reiterated that hope in an interview with Laura A. Bonnelly V. of Mas Que Pelota (hat tip to Deportivo Z 101’s Hector Gomez).  However, Molina also revealed four other teams who have shown interest in his services — the Yankees, Mets, Padres, and Angels.

The two New York clubs had already been linked to Molina’s market, and the Cards have been in talks for seemingly close to a year about another contract to keep Molina in St. Louis.  The Angels and Padres are new additions to the hunt, however, and each represents an interesting possible landing spot for the nine-time Gold Glover.

At first glance, San Diego already seems set at catcher, with Austin Nola behind the plate, former top prospect Francisco Mejia slated as the backup and star prospect Luis Campusano making his MLB debut this season.  Signing Molina, however, would add immeasurably more experience and some veteran leadership to a team that plans to contend for a championship in 2021.  While Nola’s ability to catch makes him a particularly valuable utility asset, he can also play several other positions around the diamond; the Padres could use Nola in a somewhat normal backup catcher role to spell Molina once a week, and then otherwise deploy him at other positions.

Molina has expressed interest in a two-year contract, but even if Molina were to land such a deal, that wouldn’t be much of a roadblock to Campusano as the Padres’ eventual catcher of the future.  Mejia could be the odd man out if Molina joined the team, as Mejia has yet to show much over parts of four MLB seasons with the Indians and Padres.  That said, Mejia has only 362 career plate appearances, only just turned 25, and was a consensus top-35 prospect as recently as the 2018-19 offseason, so he would still be an interesting trade chip if the Padres made him expendable.

There are some obvious family ties for Molina in Anaheim, as his brother Jose is the Angels’ catching coach, and his other brother Bengie spent his first eight MLB seasons in an Angels uniform.  Yadier would also be reunited with his old Cardinals teammate Albert Pujols for the final season of Pujols’ ten-year, $240MM deal with the Halos.

Beyond the personal connections, Molina would also fill a need for Los Angeles since Max Stassi could miss the start of the season after undergoing hip surgery in October.  Depending on how quickly Stassi recovers, the Angels could start Molina (and use Anthony Bemboom as the backup) until Stassi is ready, and then potentially move into something closer to a timeshare, though it’s probably safe to guess Molina might end up getting the bulk of the action.

Latest On Luke Voit

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  • Yankees first baseman Luke Voit has popped up in trade rumors early this offseason, but “that idea does not seem to have generated real traction in the front office,” Bryan Hoch of MLB.com writes. There doesn’t seem to be any reason for the Yankees to trade Voit, who’s coming off a huge year and under affordable control through 2023. Voit slashed .277/.338/.610 with a league-leading 22 home runs over 234 plate appearances in 2020.

Why The Yankees Could Prefer To Keep Luke Voit

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Happ initially came to Toronto as part of a ten-player trade with the Astros in July 2012, back when Alex Anthopoulos was the Jays’ general manager.  After Happ was dealt to the Mariners in the 2014-15 offseason, he then came back to the Jays on a free agent contract in November 2015, spending the better part of three seasons in Toronto before again being dealt, this time to the Yankees prior to the 2018 trade deadline.  745 1/3 of Happ’s 1741 1/3 career innings have been thrown in a Blue Jays uniform, and Happ has a 3.88 ERA, 2.72 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 as a Blue Jay.

  • Luke Voit’s name has been floated as a potential candidate to be dealt, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) wonders how much value Voit has a trade chip.  Clubs might not be willing to pay a premium since so many other power bats are available, and the Yankees might simply want to keep Voit (or, in general, as much depth as possible) as a guard against the multiple injuries that seem to regularly hamper the veteran roster.  Voit is projected to earn $3.7MM in the first of four arbitration-eligible seasons as a Super Two player, and he turns 30 in February.

Aroldis Chapman's Suspension Reduced To Two Games

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  • The Rangers have expressed interest in free agent left-hander J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Texas is expected to work younger players into the fold after posting the worst record in the American League in 2020. Nevertheless, the Rangers figure to explore the market for plenty of lower-cost starting pitchers this winter, particularly if they trade Lance Lynn before his final year under contract. The 38-year-old Happ put up a 4.57 ERA across 210.2 innings with the Yankees from 2019-20. He’s also known to have drawn some attention from the Angels, likely among plenty of others.
  • Aroldis Chapman will now serve a two-game suspension to start the 2021 season, relays Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The Yankees reliever was originally suspended three games for (intentionally, in MLB’s determination) throwing a pitch near the head of Rays infielder Mike Brosseau. Chapman managed to shave a game off on appeal. Brosseau, of course, went on to hit a series-winning home run off Chapman a month later during Tampa Bay’s run to the American League pennant.

Yankees Select Four Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Yankees are selecting four players to their 40-man roster, per a club announcement. Right-handers Roansy Contreras, Yoendrys Gomez and Alexander Vizcaino are being selected, as is infielder Oswald Peraza.

Contereas, Gomez, and Vizcaino have all yet to reach Double-A, but each ranks among New York’s top 20 farmhands at MLB.com. The same is true of Peraza, who hit .273/.348/.333 in Low-A in 2019. The well-regarded defensive shortstop is MLB.com’s fourth-ranked Yankee prospect.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu

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Second baseman DJ LeMahieu was a godsend for the Yankees during the previous two seasons, but as a free agent, he could go elsewhere this offseason. Re-signing with the Yankees is LeMahieu’s preference, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, but the 2020 American League batting champion wants to stay in the area. That could put a LeMahieu-Mets union in play, per Davidoff, though he reports that the Blue Jays are also in on him.

The Mets now have an unexpected opening at the keystone after starter Robinson Cano received a 162-game suspension Wednesday because of performance-enhancing drugs. Cano won’t earn a penny of his $24MM salary as a result, which will only make it easier for new, deep-pocketed Mets owner Steve Cohen to make splashes this winter. The Mets don’t necessarily have to throw money around at second, as they could simply use Jeff McNeil at the position and allocate their cash elsewhere, but LeMahieu does look like a more realistic option for the franchise than he did before Cano’s punishment came down.

The Yankees, for their part, aren’t going to let LeMahieu walk without a fight. They already gave LeMahieu a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM for 2021, but he made the no-brainer decision to reject it. They still want to keep him, however, according to Davidoff.

Regardless of whether LeMahieu stays with the Yankees, the team’s call to sign him for two years and $24MM before 2019 was a masterstroke, considering he was its best player over the prior two seasons. The 32-year-old former Cub and Rockie is now coming off a near-MVP season, which puts LeMahieu in position to clean up during this winter’s free-agent period. MLBTR pegs LeMahieu for a four-year, $68MM contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do even better than that on the open market.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees clinched another postseason berth in 2020 before falling short in the playoffs once again. They’re now facing offseason questions in their middle infield, at catcher and in their pitching staff. Those issues could be difficult to properly address if the club decides to tamp down its payroll, which seems likely.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post detailed last month, it could be a relatively low-spending offseason for the Yankees if their goal is to get under the $210MM luxury-tax line in 2021. They may only add around $30MM to a payroll that is already in the $170MM range with guaranteed deals, arbitration raises and rookie contracts. That’s problematic for a team with a pair of high-end free agents and needs to address.

The biggest possible departure for the Yankees would be DJ LeMahieu, who has been their premier player since they signed him to a two-year, $24MM contract before 2019. The move couldn’t have worked out better for the Yankees, with whom LeMahieu went from solid contributor to superstar. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he won a batting title, led the AL in wRC+ and finished third in MVP voting. Great timing for LeMahieu during a contract year, but it could price him out of the Yankees’ range.

The Yankees did issue LeMahieu an $18.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason, but he predictably rejected it. According to Sherman, they might be reluctant to do much better than a three-year, $48MM offer on a long-term pact, and it’s hard to believe he’d accept that. For what it’s worth, MLBTR predicts a four-year, $68MM accord, but it’s possible he’ll do even better than that.

If LeMahieu does exit, where would that leave the Yankees? It’s hard to imagine them turning the reins over to the light-hitting Tyler Wade. Fortunately for the Yankees, they do have some flexibility in their middle infield because of the versatility of shortstop Gleyber Torres, who has also played extensively at second base.

Should the team decide to leave Torres at short, it could pursue any number of Band-Aid free agents at the keystone, including Kolten Wong, Tommy La Stella, Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Schoop. Those aren’t especially exciting options on paper, though remember that LeMahieu didn’t look like the most thrilling addition when the Yankees brought him into the fold. Perhaps they’d be able to strike gold yet again on a somewhat understated pickup.

Moving Torres back to second would also present some possibilities for the Yankees, as free agency features a few accomplished vets at short (old friend Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons). Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim is going to be posted, so he could also pique the Yankees’ interest. And you can’t ignore the trade front, where the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is likely to wind up on the move. It’s also not unreasonable to think the Rockies could listen to offers for Trevor Story.

While middle infield is the main concern in the Yankees’ position player group right now, catcher isn’t too far behind. Gary Sanchez won their starting job with an all-world performance in 2016 and has held it down since. There have been defensive miscues and up-and-down offense since then, though, and now the Yankees may elect to pull the plug on the Sanchez era. They’re reportedly willing to listen to offers for Sanchez, whom they could non-tender if they can’t find a trade partner. They’ve also shown interest in free-agent catcher Yadier Molina, which doesn’t seem to bode well for Sanchez. Molina would figure to start ahead of Kyle Higashioka.

Molina’s aging, and his offense has declined of late, yet he’s still one of the top free agents at his position. J.T. Realmuto is No. 1 with a bullet, but whether the Yankees would dole out a $100MM-plus contract for him in their current situation looks iffy. They might not even be willing to go into the two- to three-year range for James McCann, the second-best backstop out there.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Yankees’ lineup looks pretty well set. Torres will be back to play somewhere. First baseman Luke Voit has developed into a star slugger. Gio Urshela remained a highly productive starting third baseman in 2020. His presence could push out Miguel Andujar if the Yankees find an enticing enough trade offer. Right fielder Aaron Judge and designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton aren’t going anywhere, though the team will need healthier seasons from the hulking duo next year. Clint Frazier finally broke out in 2020 and now looks like the Yankees’ answer in left field, while Aaron Hicks has center locked up.

There’s a question as to whether the club will bring back Yankees institution Brett Gardner as a reserve outfielder. New York bought out the 13-year veteran and saved $7.5MM in the process, but it could re-sign him for a lesser salary. If not, the Yankees might be content to plug in Mike Tauchman as their primary backup.

Whether or not LeMahieu, Sanchez and Gardner return next year, the Yankees should still feature a strong offense. Their rotation may be another story, however. Gerrit Cole delivered in the first season of a record nine-year, $324MM contract, though the Yankees don’t really have any sure things after him.

Of returning Yankees starters, Luis Severino has been an ace when healthy enough to pitch. The hope is he’ll get back to form next year, but he missed almost all of the previous two seasons because of serious arm injuries. Severino might not even be ready for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery in February. Domingo German sat out 2020 after a domestic violence suspension, though it appears the Yankees will pencil him in for some role next season. Jordan Montgomery is also an in-house front-runner for a starting job, but he had his struggles in 2020 after coming back from a TJ procedure. Otherwise, the Yankees have some younger hurlers they could turn to in Deivi Garcia, Michael King and Clarke Schmidt.

For now, the Yankees’ starting depth looks as if it’s going to take a hit in free agency. Career-long Yankee Masahiro Tanaka is on the open market, as are JA Happ and James Paxton. Tanaka, who has long been effective in New York, seems the most likely of the three to re-sign. He’s not going to come at an exorbitant cost – certainly nothing like the seven-year, $155MM contract the Yankees originally gave him. Other free agents who should be affordably priced include Jake Odorizzi, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, ex-Yankees farmhand Jose Quintana, Garrett Richards and Adam Wainwright, to name some familiar names. And the Yankees could explore trades for one of their former pitchers, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, or the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.

Considering the spending power the Yankees have typically shown off, perhaps you can’t rule them out for the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Of course, that would require the franchise to hand out yet another massive financial guarantee. Notably, Bauer and Cole – who were teammates at UCLA – have not gotten along in the past. Bauer did, however, tell reporters this week that there is no feud with Cole (via Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media).

“I have nothing wrong with Gerrit,” Bauer said. “We had our differences in college and that was nine or 10 years ago at this point. I’m a different person now than I was then. I’m sure the same is true for him.”

Regardless of whether it’s Bauer or someone else, it seems probable the Yankees will sign or trade for at least one starter this winter. General manager Brian Cashman could also make an addition(s) to their bullpen, which wasn’t the lights-out unit the Yankees expected. They already retained Zack Britton, so he’ll be a key late-game piece again. Closer Aroldis Chapman isn’t leaving, while Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa should also be back. The Yankees would probably like to move on from the last year and $9MM of Adam Ottavino’s contract after a rough 2020, but it would be difficult to find a trade partner right now. If no team wanted Brad Hand for $10MM, why would anyone take on Ottavino at $9MM?

Hand is now looking for a job – as are several other well-known relievers – but that depends on if the Yankees are interested in throwing money around on bullpen upgrades. They could at least take a fairly low-priced gamble on someone like Greg Holland, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Joakim Soria or ex-Yankees Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. The top of the market includes Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May and Trevor Rosenthal. Let’s not forget that the Yankees pursued superb Brewers reliever Josh Hader last winter. Maybe they’ll circle back there this offseason, though Hader would cost a significant amount in a trade package.

It was no surprise that the Yankees reeled in Cole, last year’s best free agent, an offseason ago. However, because of the economic issues the league is currently facing, this looks as if it will be a much less predictable offseason for the Yankees and just about every other team. If the Yankees actually are going to slash payroll, though, it could be a winter of discontent for their fans.

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