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Quick Hits: Bauer’s Sandlot Game, Yankees, German, Astros, Verlander

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The enigmatic Trevor Bauer isn’t letting a state of emergency stop him from playing baseball, per his Twitter account. Bauer is organizing a “sandlot” game for any interested MLB or MiLB  players still in Arizona, complete with mandatory mics for all players involved for streaming across his social channels. While the wisdom of such a gathering may be at odds with directives of social distancing, there will no doubt be plenty of interest in watching Bauer spearhead, well, anything, really, but especially a sandlot-style ballgame as the rest of the sporting world is in shut down. More than half of his Reds’ teammates have left camp, per The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans, but many players from the Reds and other organizations remain in Arizona. Let’s check in on how else the virus might be affecting the ramp-up to the 2020 season…

  • Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German, currently suspended for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, will have his own return delayed in step with the MLB season, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff offers clarification on the terms of German’s suspension, which will keep him on the shelf for the first 81 games of the 2020 season, whenever the season begins. Because the terms of the suspension are classified in games, there’s little wiggle room for German even if the season should be further delayed or truncated due to the spread of COVID-19. German had his best season to date in 2019, going 18-4 with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP across 143 innings of work, striking out 9.6 K/9 versus 2.5 BB/9.
  • The Astros might be see the biggest benefit of a delayed season as it gives their ace Justin Verlander time to heal, writes MLB.com’s Ricard Justice. The Astros have a difficult season ahead, and Verlander is arguably the most important player for the defending American League champs. Verlander’s lat strain had put his opening day start in question, but with an extra month (and perhaps more) to heal, the Astros’ will certainly benefit in getting Verlander back earlier, even if he’s not ready whenever the season does actually kick off.

Latest On Stanton, Paxton Progress

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The Yankees have missed a few key players early in camp, but two were back on the field today, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (links to Twitter). Both Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton are participating in some baseball activities this morning.

Stanton, who has been nursing a calf injury, was able to take live batting practice today. Stepping in against a big-league hurler represents a notable step that seems to suggest there has been real progress.

The Yanks have already ruled Stanton out for Opening Day, but the hope has remained that he’ll be ready before the month of April is out. Today’s development buttresses that belief.

As for Paxton, he was throwing with teammates this morning. That’s a notable milestone — indeed, it’s the first time he has tossed a ball since undergoing a back procedure in mid-December.

It’s good to see Paxton back to baseball activities, but he still obviously has a ways to go. At this point, the southpaw says he views a mid-May return to the majors as a best-case outcome.

Quick Hits: Sanchez, Mercado, Singer, Guerra

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Yet another Yankees star is dealing with an injury, as Gary Sanchez has missed the last two days of Spring Training action due to back soreness.  Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that Sanchez will also sit out Monday’s game before hopefully returning to the field on Tuesday, though “we will kind of see how he responds.”  Sanchez said his back was already feeling improved after a day off, so there doesn’t appear to be any reason for serious concern at this point, despite Sanchez’s already rather checkered health history (plus the seemingly never-ending string of injuries to afflict the Yankees over the last year).

More from around the baseball world….

  • Oscar Mercado had an injury scare of his own when he left Thursday’s game after hurting his wrist diving for a ball in center field.  The Indians outfielder was diagnosed with a sprain, but “thankfully it was nothing” serious, Mercado told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters this afternoon.  Mercado has already discarded the wrap that he had around his wrist for the last two days, and is now “getting better every day” after some initial discomfort.  “I’ve dove for balls, caught my wrist and stuff, it’s never hurt….That was one where I dove and I knew it was awkward, but the pain was pretty big, so I got scared,” Mercado said.  Given the positive early reports, Mercado might be on pace to achieve his goal of playing in Cleveland’s Opening Day lineup.
  • The Royals continue to look at top prospect Brady Singer in big league camp, and there’s still a chance Singer could fill the fifth starter role, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes.  Singer has a 4.76 ERA over 5 2/3 spring innings, striking out six batters and walking four.  Given that Singer has never even pitched at the Triple-A level yet, it would be a surprise to see him in the majors quite so soon, though Kansas City is clearly intrigued by the 23-year-old.  Selected 18th overall in the 2018 draft, Singer posted a 2.85 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 3.54 K/BB rate over 148 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels, and is cited on the current top-100 prospect lists posted by MLB.com (59th) and Baseball Prospectus (64th).  There isn’t necessarily any urgency about the Opening Day roster, as since the Royals won’t need a fifth starter until April 8, Singer could continue to work out at extended Spring Training.  If not Singer, K.C. could use Jorge Lopez as a fifth starter, or perhaps use an opener rather than a traditional starter to handle the rotation spot.
  • Javy Guerra has recorded five strikeouts over 5 1/3 scoreless Spring Training innings, and is looking like a realistic candidate to make the Padres’ Opening Day bullpen, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Guerra (not to be confused with longtime veteran reliever Javy Guerra, who pitches for the Nationals) was once a highly-regarded shortstop prospect coming up in the Padres’ farm system, but his progress stalled after three lackluster years at the plate.  He converted to pitching at the end of last year’s Spring Training in an effort to revive his career, and the early returns have been very impressive — Guerra posted a 3.38 ERA, 12.7 K/9, and 3.00 K/BB rate over 21 1/3 combined innings at high-A and Double-A ball last season before getting an eight-game audition in San Diego’s bullpen last season.  Now, the out-of-options Guerra is throwing his fastball at 99mph and, according to manager Jayce Tingler, could be in line for a multi-inning relief role.  “I’ve never seen somebody in (11) months go from shortstop to do what he’s done on the mound,” Tingler said.  “I’ve seen guys converted.  I’ve never seen such easy strikes with such premier velocity with movement and the ability to throw a secondary pitch.  Then having a shortstop background, somebody who can bounce off and make…plays, it’s like having a fifth infielder out there.”

Aaron Judge Diagnosed With Stress Fracture In Rib

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Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has finally received a diagnosis after being slowed early in camp. He’s dealing with a stress fracture in his first right rib, skipper Aaron Boone tells reporters including James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter) and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic (Twitter link).

It’s certainly good that the organization has finally isolated the evasive problem. But that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily the best possible result. Clearly, there’s no chance now that Judge will be ready for Opening Day.

For the time being, the plan is to allow Judge an additional two weeks of rest before reassessing. Where things go from there remains to be seen.

Reading between the lines, it seems hope remains that Judge will be able to rehab and work back to full speed once he has fully rested. But Boone made clear that there are surgical possibilities that will be considered if necessary once the two-week waiting period is up.

AL East Notes: Kratz, Dolis, Orioles, Nunez

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“The goal this year is to win a gold medal and win a World Series. That would be a pretty good year, right?” Erik Kratz rhetorically asked The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription required), as the veteran catcher is hoping to achieve what could be an unprecedented double in professional and Olympic baseball.  Kratz was a member of the United States national baseball team’s roster last November, acting as both a player and an experienced mentor to a roster comprised mostly of minor leaguers and some of the sport’s top prospects (including Jo Adell, Andrew Vaughn, Alec Bohm and more).  The U.S. team will participate in an Olympic qualifying tournament later this month, and while the roster has yet to be announced, Kratz would seem like a solid bet based on his performance last November.

If potentially participating in the Tokyo Games wasn’t enough, there is also Kratz’s role as a depth catcher for the Yankees, as the 39-year-old signed a minor league deal with New York during the offseason.  Kratz is entering his 19th year of pro ball and is hopeful of getting some playing time at the MLB level, which would give him appearances in parts of 11 different Major League seasons.  It might also get him a World Series ring, given how the Yankees are expected to contend for a title in 2020.  A championship would be a nice milestone in Kratz’s career, though the journeyman plans to keep playing for as long as possible.  “I know I appreciate every day.  I’ve felt like it could be my last season for the last 12 seasons,” Kratz said.

More from around the AL East…

  • Blue Jays right-hander Rafael Dolis will miss at least a week of action after having his appendix removed (MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson was among those to report the news).  Dolis will be re-evaluated after that first week, and it is possible the righty might not be ready for Opening Day.  After last pitching in the majors in 2013, Dolis revived his career with four impressive seasons in Japan, and signed a one-year, Major League contract with Toronto this winter.
  • Orioles manager Brandon Hyde updated reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) on a few injury situations in camp.  Jose Iglesias and Ramon Urias are both day-to-day with a quad injury and shin splits, respectively.  Tommy Milone has a trap injury, with Hyde hoping that Milone can throw a side session within the next day or two.  Righty Evan Phillips has been dealing with some soreness in his throwing elbow and underwent an MRI that “came back as nothing serious,” Hyde said, though Phillips is getting a second opinion today out of due diligence.
  • In another piece from Kubatko, he notes that Renato Nunez has been diligently working out at third base this spring.  Nunez was mostly restricted to DH duties in 2019, though it should be noted that some metrics give Nunez average (0 Defensive Runs Saved) to very good (+9.5 UZR/150) grades over his 606 2/3 career innings as a third baseman.  The Orioles don’t need Nunez to wield a Brooks Robinson-esque glove at the hot corner, however, as Nunez would only be deployed as a platoon partner with Rio Ruiz.  That would create more DH at-bats for other members of the Baltimore roster, including potentially top prospect Ryan Mountcastle.  Kubatko also observes that Nunez would gain more value to the Orioles as a potential trade chip if he shows that he handle a regular defensive position.

Yankees Scouting Starters, Still Unsure Of Aaron Judge Diagnosis

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Injury uncertainty has again struck the Yankees, who’ve gone without a few top starters and bats this spring. While the club isn’t going to panic, it’ll obviously have to make some unexpected decisions to finalize its roster.

GM Brian Cashman said recently that the Yanks haven’t put in calls to inquirer about potential trades to boost a rotation that has lost major pieces for all (Luis Severino) or part (James Paxton) of the coming campaign. That may well be — and it makes sense, given the time of year — but that doesn’t mean the organization is just sitting on its hands.

The Yankees have sent scouts to examine potential starting pitching targets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Just what level of hurler they’ll be trying to identify isn’t clear. The Yanks could certainly stand to add an established MLB arm, though that’s generally quite difficult to swing just before the start of a season.

More likely, perhaps, the New York org will be looking to acquire some depth. There are quite a few pitchers in camp on minor-league deals. Even those that show reasonably well in the spring may not end up earning 40-man roster spots with their present organization.

It isn’t as if the Yankees’ present options are without merit. As things line up at present, Jordan Montgomery and Jonathan Loaisiga would likely found out the rotation. There’s uncertainty, but both have shown real talent in the past. Veterans Chad Bettis, David Hale, and Nick Tropeano are already in camp for depth.

The Yanks could certainly enter the season with that mix, plus another addition or two, and then plan to adapt as the season goes along. The hope, of course, remains that Paxton will return before too long. And there’s always the summer trade period.

The situation is something of the opposite on the position-player side, where the need isn’t really yet known but the solutions are pretty obvious. Slugger Aaron Judge remains sidelined with a mysterious ailment in his shoulder/chest. There’s still no clarity as to just what the underlying issue is, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports on Twitter.

While it’s impossible to know at present just when Judge will be able to suit up — he says he’s still not ruling himself out for Opening Day, though that seems unlikely — the backup plan isn’t much in doubt. Mike Tauchman, Clint Frazier, and Miguel Andujar are first in line for expanded roles to account for the absences of Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Health Notes: Judge, Lowrie, Alvarez, Turner

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Strap in for a very mysterious batch of health updates from spring training…

  • Aaron Judge’s health status seems to be unknown to just about everyone right now. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com spoke today with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who said that Judge is going through a “car wash” of tests. “He’s obviously going through a series of tests,” Cashman said. “It’s not like one or two, it’s a number approaching seven to 10 total, so they can make sure they have a full evaluation and determine what ails him. When they’re complete, we’ll either be able to tell you we’re in the clear or we’ll be able to tell you that we have a full diagnosis and the timeframe and everything else like that.” Stay tuned.
  • As if trying to outdo Cashman in providing non-answers, Mets infielder Jed Lowrie gave this update about his own status to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I have to refer you to the organization.” After referring to the organization via general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, DiComo still got no timeline. Though Van Wagenen did say they are looking into a “transitional” brace to help him get on the field. Lowrie appeared in just nine games for the Mets last year. And it’s unclear if he’ll be able to top that in 2020.
  • Astros outfielder Yordan Álvarez will sit out “three or four days” because of “knee soreness,” according to Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle. Astros manager Dusty Baker says that they’re “going to try to take it easy on him for at least three days.” This is potentially worrying for Astros fans because, as Young notes, Álvarez was playing through similar knee issues last year, although they didn’t stop him from producing Rookie of the Year-winning numbers.
  • And finally, the clearest news of the bunch: Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner was hit by a pitch on the back of his hand, but the X-ray came back negative (Twitter links from Ken Gurnick). If you need any more evidence of Turner being fine, he hit a home run between the HBP and the X-ray.

8 AL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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After taking a look at eight American League East hitters hoping to bounce back from down seasons in 2020, we’ll do the same here with an octet of the division’s pitchers…

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox:

The flamethrowing Eovaldi was one of Boston’s many heroes during its World Series run in 2018, convincing the team to re-sign him to a four-year, $68MM contract thereafter. But the first year of the pact was a disaster for both sides, as Eovaldi missed significant time with elbow problems and didn’t perform well when he was able to pitch. The 30-year-old wound up with career-worst numbers in ERA (5.99), FIP (5.90) and BB/9 (4.66), thereby offsetting a personal-high K/9 of 9.31. There’s optimism he’ll rebound this year, which would be a boon for a Red Sox team that just traded David Price and has seen elbow issues weigh down Chris Sale this spring.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox:

Speaking of Sale, the longtime ace simply didn’t deliver the type of results we had grown accustomed to seeing last season. The 30-year-old was still awfully good, notching 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, but turned in a bloated ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.39) in comparison to prior campaigns. He also saw his mean fastball velocity dip by over a mile an hour from the prior couple years, as he averaged 93.2 mph with the pitch. That’s not what the Red Sox wanted after signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension last spring. Considering that deal won’t even take effect until this season, it’ll be all the worse for the Red Sox if his current elbow injury proves to be serious.

Blake Snell, LHP, Rays:

Like Sale, Snell turned in fine numbers last year. However, in terms of bottom-line production, he wasn’t the Cy Young winner we witnessed the previous season, owing in part to elbow troubles that required arthroscopic surgery in late July. Snell ultimately totaled 107 innings of 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP ball after putting up 1.89 and 2.85 in those respective categories during the prior campaign. There was still plenty to like, however, including 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9, a fastball that stayed in the 95-96 mph range and swinging-strike rate (17.7) that climbed more than 2.5 percent from his superb 2018 effort. Once again, though, there are some health questions in play. Snell may miss the start of the regular season after undergoing a cortisone shot in his elbow last week.

Jose Alvarado, LHP, Rays:

He was somewhat quietly among the elite relievers in baseball in 2018, but last year didn’t go nearly as well for Alvarado. The 24-year-old did average a whopping 98.2 mph on his fastball and strike out 11.7 batters per nine, though an untenable walk rate (8.1 BB/9, up almost double from the previous season) led to a 4.80 ERA/4.18 FIP in 30 innings. To be fair to Alvarado, he wasn’t healthy all that often in 2019, missing time with oblique and elbow injuries. He also sat out for a while because of a family matter.

J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees:

Happ had a career-best stretch with multiple teams from 2015-18, which persuaded the Yankees to re-sign him to a two-year, $34MM contract heading into 2019. The decision doesn’t look great so far, though, as Happ stumbled to a 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP in 161 2/3 innings last season. Along the way, his strikeouts per nine (7.81) dropped by almost two full batters from the previous season, while his home run-to-fly ball rate (18.3) jumped by about 5 percent. Now, it’s imperative for the Yankees that they get a bounce-back effort from Happ, considering the well-documented hardships they’re suddenly facing in their rotation. And there’s a lot at stake for the 37-year-old Happ, whose $17MM option for 2021 will vest if he accumulates 165 innings or 27 starts this season.

Alex Cobb, RHP, Orioles:

Back and hip injuries limited Cobb to just three starts in 2019 (all in April), the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract that has blown up in Baltimore’s face so far. Cobb had a horrific time in the 12 1/3 innings he did pitch last year, yielding 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including an eye-popping nine homers).

Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles:

Givens was an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout last season, but the Orioles decided not to sell low on him during a career-worst year. Like many pitchers in 2019, the 29-year-old proved extremely susceptible to the home run, giving them up on 22.8 percent of fly balls en route to a 4.57 ERA/4.50 FIP with eight blown saves in 19 attempts; he also registered a below-average walk rate of 3.71 per nine. On the bright side, though, Givens fanned a career-high 12.29 batters per nine and continued to average better than 95 mph on his fastball. With this being his penultimate year of team control, Givens continues to look like a trade candidate for Baltimore, but the team won’t get a max return if he doesn’t revisit his old form.

Richard Bleier, LHP, Orioles:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts and a lack of velocity, Bleier offered lights-out results as a member of the Yankees’ and Orioles’ bullpens from 2016-18. Last year was more of the same in terms of strikeouts, walks and grounders (4.88 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 59.9 percent GB rate), but the run prevention wasn’t there. Bleier ended up with a horrid 5.37 ERA (with a more encouraging 4.19 FIP) over 55 1/3 innings. While Bleier continued to hold down same-handed hitters, who posted a weak .238 weighted on-base average off him, righties tattooed him for a .410 wOBA. In other words, the average righty hit like the 2019 version of Anthony Rendon against Bleier.

8 AL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:

Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.

Mike Zunino, C, Rays:

After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.

Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:

Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:

Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:

Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:

Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.

Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:

Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.

Camp Battles: Yankees’ Rotation

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It wasn’t long ago that the Yankees possessed what looked like a surefire elite rotation on paper. They signed superstar Gerrit Cole for a record $324MM during the offseason, and the plan was for him to lead a group with two other front-end starters (Luis Severino and James Paxton) and a pair of established complements (Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ). Sadly for the Yankees, though, the injury troubles that dogged them throughout last season haven’t relented in the new year. They’ve already lost Severino for 2020 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last week. That means this will be the second straight lost year for the electrifying Severino, who was essentially robbed of a 2019 on the mound because of shoulder and lat problems. The oft-injured Paxton will sit out until May or June as a result of back surgery, meanwhile, and the Yankees will also go without the services of Domingo German for 63 games because of a domestic violence suspension.

The Yankees have known for a while there would be no German to begin the season, but the Severino and Paxton injuries are sizable, unexpected shots to their rotation. They’re now facing multiple question marks in their starting staff after Cole, Tanaka and Happ, at least until Paxton and German come back (judging by his 2019, even Happ’s no lock to offer decent production). It seems lefty Jordan Montgomery is the odds-on favorite to begin 2020 as the Yankees’ No. 4 starter. If the Yankees get the 2017 version of Montgomery who held his own as a rookie, they’ll be in fine shape. But Montgomery combined for just 31 1/3 major league innings from 2018-19 (four last season) in the wake of Tommy John surgery on his left elbow, so no one really knows what he’ll provide going forward.

Cole, Tanaka, Happ and Montgomery aside, who else could open the season in the Yankees’ top five? Let’s examine several of the candidates vying for the role this spring…

Leading Contenders:

  • Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP: With his 96 mph fastball, Loaisiga can be electric, but the 25-year-old hasn’t had much success going deep in games during a small amount of major league starts. Furthermore, control has been a problem for Loaisiga since he debuted in 2018. While Loaisiga has fanned upward of 11 hitters per nine across 56 1/3 innings (24 appearances, eight starts), a 4.47 BB/9 has helped lead to an unspectacular 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP.
  • Clarke Schmidt, RHP: The 24-year-old, hard-throwing Schmidt has never pitched above the Double-A level, but he’s a recent first-round pick (2017) who has opened eyes with five innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball this spring. That’s not much of a sample size, but Schmidt has impressed at multiple minor league levels since undergoing TJ surgery in his draft year. He currently ranks as the Yankees’ second-best prospect at Baseball America, which writes that he has the “ceiling of a midrotation starter.”
  • Deivi Garcia, RHP: Speaking of high-end prospects, Garcia’s right in line with Schmidt when it comes to promising Yankees farmhands (BA has him third in the team’s system). Although he’s undersized at 5-foot-9, 163 pounds, that didn’t prevent Garcia from reaching Triple-A ball at the age of 20 last year. It didn’t go well (5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP in 40 innings), but it’s hard to get down on someone so young for struggling at the highest level of the minors. With that in mind, though, it may be too ambitious to expect him to be ready for the majors in a few weeks.
  • Mike King, RHP: King’s yet another prospect (New York’s 13th-best at BA), though he does carry a bit of MLB experience, having made one appearance and thrown two innings with the Yankees last September. That made for a good ending to the season for King, whom the Yankees acquired from the Marlins in a notable trade in 2017, after a stress fracture limited him to fewer than 50 professional frames in 2019. The 24-year-old thrived in the minors the year before, however.
  • Chad Bettis, RHP: Bettis, whom the Yankees signed to a minor league contract just over two weeks ago, brings the most experience to the table of anyone in the mix. The 30-year-old appeared in 164 games and started 92 with the Rockies from 2013-19, during which he was fairly successful at times (specifically from 2015-16). Bettis is now coming off a rough season that he mostly spent in Colorado’s bullpen, as he pitched to a 6.08 ERA/5.16 FIP and struck out fewer than six batters per nine over 63 2/3 innings before undergoing hip surgery in August. On the bright side, he did post his highest average fastball velocity in years (93 mph) and log a tremendous 60.2 percent groundball rate.
  • Luis Cessa, RHP: Like Bettis, Cessa’s an elder statesman relative to most of this bunch. The 27-year-old has 86 games and 19 starts under his belt in the majors, where he has amassed 232 innings. Cessa throws hard (upward of 94 mph), but it hasn’t translated to big-time results as a member of the Yankees, with whom he owns a 4.50 ERA/4.98 FIP. After spending last season in the bullpen, it seems he’s ticketed for a similar role this year, meaning his chances of earning the fifth spot in New York’s rotation appear quite slim.

Other Possibilities?

If the Yankees aren’t content to roll with this group until Paxton and German return, perhaps they’ll scour the trade, free-agent and/or waiver markets (alternatively, they could deploy an opener such as Chad Green). They’ve already shown interest in Mets lefty Steven Matz, but a deal between the two New York rivals looks like a long shot. We also explored some other potential trade targets for the Yankees last week, but those hurlers admittedly look as if they make more sense as in-season targets. And while free agency looks to be devoid of impact arms at this point, maybe it wouldn’t hurt to take a low-risk flier on a veteran(s) who’s still seeking an opportunity.

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