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James Paxton Out Three To Four Months Following Back Surgery

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The Yankees announced Wednesday that left-hander James Paxton will be sidelined for an expected three to four months after undergoing a microscopic lumbar discectomy operation with the removal of a peridiscal cyst.

It’s a tough blow for the Yankees before their spring camp even opens, as Paxton will now be sidelined until at least early May and possibly into June. That represents something of a best-case scenario and assumes no substantial setbacks along the way for the 31-year-old lefty.

Paxton was perhaps the Yankees’ most effective starter in 2019, tossing 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball over the life of 29 starts in his first season with the club. The longtime Mariners starter averaged 11.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 after being acquired in the trade that sent lefty Justus Sheffield, right-hander Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams to Seattle in the preceding offseason.

The Yankees spent a good portion of the offseason exploring trade scenarios involving fellow left-hander J.A. Happ, but they’re now surely glad that no deal materialized. Happ now figures to be locked into a rotation spot behind Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. Paxton’s injury could also pave the way for left-hander Jordan Montgomery to break camp with the Yankees as a member of the starting staff in what will be his first full season back from 2018 Tommy John surgery.

The timing of the surgery is poor not only for the Yankees but for Paxton himself, as he’ll now miss a substantial portion of what will be his platform season for free agency. The left-hander avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12.5MM salary earlier this winter and is slated to hit free agency next winter, where he’ll search for the first lucrative multi-year deal of his big league career. Today’s surgery doesn’t rule out the possibility of him cashing in, but there’s no getting around the fact that it’ll significantly alter his earning power on the open market.

East Notes: McNeil, Voit, Givens

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While we wait to learn more about a possible earth-shaking swap from the AL East — participate in our poll while there’s still time! — let’s check in on a few other storylines from the game’s eastern divisions.

  • Mets utilityman Jeff McNeil anticipates settling in a bit in 2020, as Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reports. It was largely evident just from looking at the New York roster situation, but McNeil confirms that he’s preparing to spend much of his time at the hot corner. “I think I’ll be playing a lot of third,” he said over the weekend. The 27-year-old says he’ll be a full go when camp opens. While a late-season wrist injury bothered him until late in 2019, McNeil says he’s over it now and has more or less had a normal offseason.
  • Speaking of winter recoveries, Yankees first baseman Luke Voit says he’s fitter than ever after undergoing core surgery, as George A. King III of the New York Post writes. That’s good news for him and for the club after Voit experienced a subpar, injury marred 2019 effort. He’ll need to prove in camp that he deserves a job. As King further explores, the club could lean on left-handed-hitting Mike Ford (perhaps in conjunction with Voit) and will also see how third baseman Miguel Andujar handles the other side of the infield.
  • It remains surprising that we haven’t heard more trade chatter this winter surrounding Orioles reliever Mychal Givens. That’s just fine with him. The 29-year-old says he’ll continue to “bleed black and orange” unless and until he is put into another uniform. With two full seasons to go until free agency, Givens is at the mercy of the team — except that his own performance is a major factor in his trade candidacy. Givens expressed optimism at his ability to bounce back from a rough showing last year; if he can do so, he could be a significant trade chip at the 2020 trade deadline. “Some great things have really been going on and are going to happen in the near future,” Givens says, “so hopefully I can stay here if I can. If not, it’s been a good road, but right now, like I said, I’m an Oriole.”

Yankees Sign Dan Otero, David Hale

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The Yankees announced a series of minor league deals with non-roster invitations to Spring Training on Monday, including previously unreported agreements with right-handers Dan Otero and David Hale.

Otero, 35 later this month, was brilliant with the Indians from 2016-17, pitching to a combined 2.14 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 63 percent ground-ball rate in 130 2/3 innings of relief. However, he’s become increasingly homer-prone over the past two seasons (1.83 HR/9), and this past season’s 53.2 percent grounder rate marked roughly a 10 percent drop for the sinkerballer. Otero’s ability to avoid walks remains among the very best in baseball — eight walks in his past 88 1/3 innings — but the 89.5 mph he averaged on his sinker in 2019 was the lowest velocity of his career.

Hale, meanwhile, is a more familiar face for Yankees fans. The 32-year-old has gone through multiple stints with the Yankees over the past two seasons and threw quite well in 2019. Hale racked up 37 2/3 innings in a long relief role in 2019 and notched a tidy 3.11 ERA with a 23-to-7 K/BB ratio and an even 50 percent ground-ball rate.

Incredibly, this is the fifth minor league contract that Hale has signed with the Yankees since Jan. 2018. He originally signed a minor league pact with New York on Jan. 30 that year. Hale had his contract selected that April, landed with the Twins on a waiver claim and was released not long after. He returned to the Yankees on a second minor league deal, was again released following a DFA two weeks later, and re-signed with the Yanks the following day. Hale then re-signed with the Yankees on a minor league deal last winter and has now put pen to paper with them yet again.

Both pitchers will compete for spots in a crowded Yankees bullpen alongside fellow non-roster veterans Tyler Lyons and Luis Avilan. The top end of the Yankees’ relief corps looks to be largely set, health permitting, as Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green and Tommy Kahlne should all be locks. Others such as Jonathan Holder, Ben Heller and the out-of-options Luis Cessa will compete alongside the non-roster players in Spring Training as they hope to land a spot on the Opening Day roster as well.

AL Notes: Yankees, Orioles, Rays

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The Yankees bullpen has been a consistent source of strength for this iteration of Bronx contender, and it should continue to be even with one-time rock Dellin Betances now in Flushing, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Aroldis Chapman remains one of the most feared closers in the game. He’ll be buttressed by Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino in the late innings, while Chad Green and Luis Cessa ought to continue in their swing roles. Of course, the biggest addition to the bullpen should be Gerrit Cole, whose length will take some pressure off a bullpen unit that’s largely been expected to carry the Yanks in recent seasons. Still, there’s some room for someone from the group of Jonathan Holder, Jonathan Loaisiga, Brooks Kriske, Michael King, Ben Heller, and Jordan Montgomery to step up and earn a role.

  • The Orioles are set to have close to 66 players invited to camp this spring, and they’re not capping the number there, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Manager Brandon Hyde is excited about having a competitive atmosphere in his second season on the job. Baltimore has more opportunity than most camps with few set roles on their 25-man roster. For those interested in wide-open camp battles, this is the one to watch.
  • Jose Alvarado is the man to watch in Rays’ camp, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Alvarado can be a difference-maker in the Rays’ bullpen, but he’s coming off an uneven season. Elbow inflammation ended his 2019 early, but his season had derailed long prior. A strong first two months better represents what the Rays expect from Alvarado, who continued to miss bats all season long, even when his command faltered (8.1 BB/9). Alvarado certainly has the potential to be a big piece in an impressive Rays bullpen, but he’ll have to earn his place. Nick Anderson and Emilio Pagan emerged as lockdown options for Tampa, but Alvarado can and should be their primary lefty again. Topkin offers a quote from Rays’ pitching coach Kyle Snyder, who said, “He very easily could be as good as any reliever in the game (this) year. That’s the thing.”

Yankees, Josh Thole Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees agreed to a minor league deal with veteran catcher Josh Thole this week, as first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The former Mets and Blue Jays backstop would make $600K upon cracking the big league roster. He’s the third experienced catcher the Yankees have brought in on a minor league deal this winter, joining fellow veterans Chris Iannetta and Erik Kratz in that regard. Kyle Higashioka, though, remains the favorite to back up Gary Sanchez in 2020.

Now 33 years old, Thole carved out a niche as something of a personal catcher for former NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball both in New York and in Toronto. He’s never been a huge threat at the plate, however, hitting .242/.313/.306 through 1499 Major League plate appearances and .259/.349/.380 through 186 Triple-A games.

Thole split the 2019 season between the Angels and Dodgers organizations, where he logged a combined .243/.352/.327 slash in 267 minor league plate appearances. He briefly appeared in the Tigers’ system in 2018 and didn’t play at all in 2017. Thole’s last big league action came in 2016 when he appeared in 50 games with the Blue Jays.

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

Yankees Want Miguel Andujar To Learn To Play 1B, LF

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The Yankees’ Miguel Andujar spent 2018 at third base, where he endured his fair share of struggles. Andujar posted a horrid minus-25 Defensive Runs Saved and a similarly poor minus-16 Ultimate Zone Rating, but the doubles machine’s outstanding offensive production overshadowed his difficulties in the field. While Andujar finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting in his first season, he wasn’t able to follow it up in 2019 on account of shoulder troubles that shelved him for almost the whole campaign.

In Andujar’s absence last year, the Yankees saw fill-in Gio Urshela enjoy an out-of-nowhere breakout. Urshela’s now set to enter 2020 as the Yankees’ top option at the hot corner, which could force Andujar to another position. Yankees manager Aaron Boone has told Andujar that he’ll have to learn to play first base and left field in spring training, Randy Miller of NJ.com reports.

Andujar’s no sure thing to begin 2020 with the Yankees if he’s unable to adapt to his new spots. Considering he has minor league options left, the Yankees could opt to send him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. But Andujar’s “makeup is off the chart,” general manager Brian Cashman told the YES Network, so the Yankees are still banking on him doing enough to crack their 26-man roster.

If Andujar does start the season in the majors, it’s up in the air how much playing time he’ll receive from the get-go. As mentioned, he’s now the Yankees’ No. 2 guy at third. Meanwhile, the Yankees have fellow right-handed hitter Luke Voit, who has been quite productive since he joined the club in 2018, as well as lefty Mike Ford as first base possibilities. They also boast Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Tauchman and Clint Frazier as left field choices. So, there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to early season playing time in New York for Andujar, despite the .297/.328/.527 line he recorded and the 76 extra-base hits he amassed during his rookie campaign.

Free Agent Spending By Team: American League

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As we covered earlier this week, almost all of the prominent free agents in this year’s class have already exited the board. Because of that, we’ll see more and more minor league signings and fewer and fewer major league deals in the weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. This has been an aggressive offseason in terms of spending, though. To this point, which teams have handed out the most guaranteed money via the open market? We’ll examine both leagues, but let’s begin with the AL (reminder: This exercise excludes trades, club options, extensions, waiver claims and Rule 5 selections)…

Yankees: $336.5MM on two players (Gerrit Cole and Brett Gardner; top 50 MLBTR signings: two)

Angels: $260.85MM on three players (Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran and Jason Castro; top 50 signings: three)

White Sox: $196.5MM on six players (Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion, Steve Cishek and Gio Gonzalez; top 50 signings: five)

Twins: $151.8MM on eight players (Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Sergio Romo, Alex Avila, Rich Hill and Tyler Clippard; top 50 signings: four)

Blue Jays: $114.35MM on four players (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi and Travis Shaw; top 50 signings: two)

Rangers: $62.25MM on five players (Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Robinson Chirinos, Joely Rodriguez and Todd Frazier; top 50 signings: two)

Tigers: $17.8MM on four players (C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine and Ivan Nova; top 50 signings: one)

Astros: $15.65MM on three players (Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado and Dustin Garneau; top 50 signings: zero)

Rays: $12MM on one player (Yoshitomo Tsutsugo; top 50 signings: zero)

Red Sox: $9.9MM on three players (Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Kevin Plawecki; top 50 signings: zero)

Athletics: $7.5MM on one player (Jake Diekman; top 50 signings: zero)

Royals: $6.95MM on two players (Alex Gordon and Maikel Franco; top 50 signings: zero)

Indians: $6.25MM on one player (Cesar Hernandez; top 50 signings: zero)

Orioles: $3MM on one player (Jose Iglesias; top 50 signings: zero)

Mariners: $2.95MM on two players (Kendall Graveman and Carl Edwards Jr.; top 50 signings: zero)

Brian Cashman: J.A. Happ To Open 2020 In Yankees’ Rotation

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There has been no shortage of offseason trade speculation centering on Yankees left-hander J.A. Happ, especially in the wake of the team’s blockbuster Gerrit Cole signing. If we’re to believe general manager Brian Cashman, though, Happ isn’t going anywhere. Cashman told Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network (video link) that Happ will open 2020 as the Yankees’ fifth starter behind Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka.

Whether you want to take Cashman’s statement at face value is up to you, but it does appear Happ would be a challenge to trade. The normally solid Happ is coming off a subpar season, set to enter his age-37 campaign, owed a significant salary, and has an unappealing vesting option baked into his contract.

Happ, who pitched to a 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP with 7.81 K/9 (down from 9.78 the prior year) in 2019, will earn $17MM this season. Worsening matters, he’ll make another $17MM in 2021 if he racks up 165 innings or 27 starts this year – two figures he has typically approached or surpassed over the past several campaigns.

Getting Happ’s money (or at least some of it) off the books would help the Yankees from a luxury-tax standpoint, as they’re currently projected for a whopping $261MM-plus total. That said, there’s a case it would benefit them to keep Happ around and hope for a bounce-back showing.

Happ, despite an overall disappointing year, did end last season on a high note with a strong September. He’s also the most logical candidate to eat innings from the back of a Yankees rotation that will go awhile without righty Domingo German, whom MLB handed a suspension for domestic violence that will cost him the first 63 games of 2020. Meanwhile, southpaw Jordan Montgomery – the Yankees’ next most experienced starter – barely pitched over the previous two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Beyond German and Montgomery, New York’s looking at mostly unproven 40-man options, albeit some intriguing ones including Deivi Garcia, Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Mike King, as well as minor league signing Nick Tropeano. One or more of them could factor into the Yankees’ starting staff during the season, but for now, it appears they’ll take a backseat to Happ.

Yankees Sign Tyler Lyons

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The Yankees have brought back left-handed reliever Tyler Lyons on a minor league contract, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America.

Lyons divided 2019 between the Pirates and Yankees, but New York outrighted him off its 40-man roster in November. Before that, Lyons – whom the Yankees signed in August – saw a bit of action at the major and minor league levels as a member of the organization. He finished the year with a combined 12 2/3 innings for Pittsburgh and New York. Although Lyons struck out 17 batters during that span, that was overshadowed by the nine earned runs he yielded on 13 hits and five walks. He was far superior in Triple-A ball, throwing 50 1/3 frames of 3.22 ERA ball with 10.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9.

At his best, the soft-tossing Lyons was outstanding for the Cardinals in 2017 – a 54-inning effort in which he registered a 2.83 ERA/2.86 FIP and struck out more than 11 hitters per nine. Lyons failed to revisit that form in the majors over the previous two years, but he’ll nonetheless try to work his way back to MLB as a member of a Yankees team whose bullpen includes two established southpaws in Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. The Yankees subtracted some lefty depth when they traded Stephen Tarpley to the Marlins on Jan. 15, but they’ve signed Lyons and Luis Avilan as reinforcements since then.

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