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Dodgers, Rich Hill Nearing Agreement

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SUNDAY, 7:09pm: An official announcement from the Dodgers about a Hill agreement isn’t likely to happen tonight, Andy McCullough tweets.

SATURDAY, 6:48pm: The Dodgers and Hill are “closing in” on a contract, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. They’re unlikely to reach an agreement today, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times, though he corroborates Plunkett’s report that a deal is forthcoming (Twitter link). The Dodgers aren’t facing much of any competition from Hill’s previously reported suitors – the Astros, Rangers or Yankees – according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

4:02pm: Another team who tried to negotiate a deal with free agent starter Rich Hill believes the lefty has a three-year contract worth $40MM or more in place with the Dodgers, Peter Gammons tweets. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tells a similar story, saying the Dodgers might already have a deal in place for Hill for three years and $46MM-$48MM. Cafardo, though, emphasizes the possibility that one of a number of East Coast teams could still sign him. No move has been confirmed by Hill or the Dodgers at this point, however.

The latest rumors about Hill had the Dodgers as one of four teams bidding for his services, along with the Yankees, Rangers and Astros. The Red Sox and Orioles were also believed to be interested. Hill, of course, is coming off an outstanding age-36 season with the Athletics and Dodgers during which he posted a 2.12 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 110 1/3 innings, including a start in which he was pulled a perfect game after seven innings. His performance in 2016 landed him the No. 14 spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, making him one of the top starters available.

The downsides with Hill are his age and his lengthy injury history — even in his 2016 breakout campaign, he dealt with blister problems and a groin injury. As Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times points out via Twitter, though, the Dodgers’ depth puts them in position to take advantage of Hill’s upside while minimizing their risk if he’s not available to pitch. Particularly given Hill’s vanishingly low 2016 home run rate of 0.33 per nine innings, there’s reason to be somewhat skeptical of his ability to repeat his incredible performance last season. He could regress a fair amount in the next couple years and still be a vital contributor, however, and if he does return to the Dodgers, he should provide their rotation with a healthy boost if he’s able to stay healthy.

For Hill, a $40MM-plus contract would represent an enormous financial windfall — he has spent most of his career as a journeyman and has never had a long-term deal. He’s also never made more in a season than the $6MM he made last year.

The Dodgers are currently dealing with debt issues, but those issues seem unlikely to prevent them from pursuing a free agent of Hill’s stature, and the team has not been required to reduce its payroll. In addition to Hill, the team has also been fleetingly linked to other potentially expensive or relatively expensive players like Aroldis Chapman and Andrew McCutchen.

Yankees Non-Tender Jacob Lindgren

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  • The Yankees have non-tendered southpaw Jacob Lindgren, the club announced. His departure leaves the team with one open 40-man roster spot. The high-powered lefty has dealt with elbow issues in recent years.

Latest On Yankees' Efforts To Add Power Bat

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  • The Yankees have their eye on four possibilities for a big bat, per Heyman (via Twitter): Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Holliday, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Beltran. Most of those free agents have been connected to New York in some form already, though Holliday has not been mentioned with much specificity. Of note, beyond the interest of the Yankees, is that Holliday is apparently looking for a two-year deal, while Beltran appears to be available for a single-season commitment.

Yankees Notes: Encarnacion, Headley, Gardner

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  • The Yankees, Astros and Blue Jays all remain in the mix for Edwin Encarnacion, but Heyman joins others in writing that Twitter reports of a deal between Houston and Encarnacion were premature. The Astros are being aggressive on Encarnacion, according to Heyman, though agent Paul Kinzer told him that there are “a couple” of other teams in the mix beyond this group as well. Perhaps signaling their desire to add an impact bat, the Astros made a legitimate run at Yoenis Cespedes both this offseason and last winter, Heyman adds, noting that last winter’s pursuit flew largely under the radar.
  • One general manager who has spoken to the Tigers about a J.D. Martinez trade tells Heyman that he believes Martinez is “all but certain” to be traded. Detroit, Heyman points out, is now the somewhat surprising MLB payroll leader with several Dodgers hitting free agency and with the Yankees trading Brian McCann.
  • The Yankees have spoken to other teams about third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Brett Gardner but received minimal interest in that pair. Headley has $26MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal and quietly rebounded from a disastrous start to post a solid overall season in the Bronx last year, while Gardner is owed a similar $25MM through 2018 and also has a club option for the 2019 season on his deal. Gardner would seem to have more trade value to me, and perhaps teams would show more interest later in the winter once some of the free-agent options in the outfield have come off the board.

Yankees Still In On Edwin Encarnacion

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With the CBA now in place, teams and players that were waiting for clarity can move toward new agreements. While plenty of organizations have gone right ahead with their plans, others seemingly have waited. That includes the Yankees (per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, on Twitter), Nationals (per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, on Twitter), and perhaps also the Red Sox (via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, in a tweet). Whether we’re in for a rush of moves remains to be seen, but the stage is set.

  • The Astros continue to strive to add another bat, with the team confident it will land either Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Still, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and a “couple others” remain involved on Encarnacion, Heyman tweets. All three of those teams, along with the Red Sox, are in on Beltran, Nightengale adds on Twitter.
  • Several former employers of first bagger Mike Napoli have interest in a reunion, per Heyman. The Red Sox, Indians, and Rangers are perhaps the three teams most heavily invested in his market. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Astros appear to be involved at the periphery at present.

Latest On Market For Rich Hill

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There are four teams heavily pursuing free-agent lefty Rich Hill, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros are all said to be chasing down a pitcher who is arguably the best available on this year’s market.  Also joining pursuit are the Red Sox and Orioles, per the report, though it seems their interest is less robust.

We’ve heard plenty of chatter about the possibility of the Yankees making a move on Hill, and the Dodgers likewise have long been said to have interest in a reunion. The AL West-rival Rangers and Astros, though, have not been tied as closely — in part, perhaps, since both have already signed starters — though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed both as plausible suitors in his top-fifty free agent list. Meanwhile, the two AL East teams mentioned seemingly have fully stocked rotations, though surely both could stand to upgrade in the right situation.

Hill is coming off of an outstanding age-36 season. While he was limited to 110 1/3 innings, owing to a blister, the veteran southpaw recorded a sensational 2.12 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While there was justifiable skepticism last winter, following Hill’s four excellent, late-season starts in the prior campaign, he now seems worth pursuing as a possible top-of-the-rotation arm.

There’s plenty of reason to tamper contract expectations, of course. Even if one accepts that Hill can continue to mow down opposing hitters, he’s not young and comes with a long history of injuries. And it’s certainly possible that he’s in line for some regression in the earned-run department after limiting opposing hitters to just 0.33 home runs per nine innings a season ago.

Though he essentially uses just two pitches, Hill has baffled the opposition with a heater that barely averages 90 mph and a breaking ball that he can manipulate at will. And the recent results aren’t just a batted-ball-fortune fluke; he was credited with a 2.39 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA in 2016. With no other true impact starters available on the open market, and despite the obvious questions, MLBTR predicts that he’ll command a $50MM guarantee over three seasons.

Yankees Release Nathan Eovaldi, Two Others

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The Yankees have released veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, per a club announcement. Also cut loose were southpaw Joe Mantiply and righty Nick Rumbelow. All three pitchers were designated for assignment ten days ago, and obviously no trades or claims were in the offing.

With the move, the 26-year-old Eovaldi will be available to the highest bidder for the first time in his career. It’s surely not how he envisioned reaching free agency — Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery made him a clear non-tender candidate in his final year of arbitration eligibility — and he won’t exactly be lining up a monster payday. But there figure to be plenty of interested teams given his intriguing pitching arsenal and young age.

It’s not yet clear what kind of deal Eovaldi will seek. Some players elect to rehab on their own and then throw before signing, as reliever Greg Holland is doing at present. Others ink multi-year deals that lock in some guaranteed money but provide upside to the signing team, as pitchers such as Kris Medlen have done in recent years.

It’s at least somewhat surprising that New York released Mantiply. He had been claimed off waivers just ten days before he was designated, seemingly suggesting that the organization hoped he’d be a candidate to be stashed upon his removal from the 40-man roster. Instead, the 25-year-old will hit the open market.

Rumbelow also just turned 25. He moved quickly through the minors and had a solid debut in the majors in 2015. But he went down early in the 2016 season and ultimately underwent a TJ procedure of his own. Rumbelow figures to draw interest from organizations intrigued at the possibility of gaining cheap control over a useful reliever in the event that his rehab is successful.

Yankees' Limits On Chapman, Encarnacion

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  • The Yankees are widely considered the favorites to sign Aroldis Chapman, though not if the closer’s market reaches five years and $100MM, George A. King III of the New York Post reports.  One would think the dollar figure rather than the contract length would be the sticking point for the Yankees, as Chapman (who turns 29 in February) has long been expected to land at least a five-year deal this winter.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Chapman to land five years and $90MM, and would still set a new record high for a reliever contract even if it falls short of nine figures.  (Dierkes also has Chapman signing with the Yankees.)
  • Also from King, the Yankees similarly aren’t interested in a five-year deal with Edwin Encarnacion.  New York has checked in with Encarnacion but also with Carlos Beltran, who would come at a much lower price in both years and dollars.  Several other first base/DH types with lower price tags than Encarnacion have also been speculatively linked to the Yankees as well this offseason.  It’s unclear whether any team would be willing to guarantee five years to Encarnacion, who is entering his age-34 season.

Sherman On Why Yankees Should Follow Through With Rebuilding Plan

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The Yankees are in the closing stages of Hal Steinbrenner’s rebuilding plan, and they should not deviate from it now, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. That means they must give young players the opportunities they need, both in the minors and in the big leagues. Sherman cites the example of Aaron Judge, a flawed but interesting player who might need extensive development time in the Majors before he hits his ceiling. The Yankees have a number of big-league players, like Greg Bird, Luis Severino and Luis Cessa, who will also require patience to develop, along with a very talented group of minor leaguers. Sherman notes that teams like the Cubs and Red Sox made their aggressive pushes only when it was clear they had a core of young talent that was ready to help. The Yankees should also be looking to accumulate financial flexibility, so that, in a couple years, when they’re a bit older and players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and Shohei Otani are available as free agents, the Yankees will be in the best possible position to add them to their own strong core. Here’s more from the East divisions.

Yankees’ Cashman On CBA, Gleyber Torres

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GM Brian Cashman says the Yankees anxiously await the next collective bargaining agreement, and says that previous CBAs have “crippled” them, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.

“The previous CBAs have really hindered us, so I think the next one is something we’re clearly going to be interested in on how it will impact us over the entire course of the term of the contract,” Cashman says. “In the short term, I don’t think it will affect how we do business in 2017. The last few have impacted us exactly as they were expected to and why it was done the way it was. Lot of teams benefited significantly.”

Cashman is referring to the Yankees’ uncharacteristically quiet approach to free agency last season (when they didn’t sign a single big-league free agent), as well as “a lot of the international markets I’ve been taken out of,” presumably including the Yankees’ restrictions on international bonus spending for 2015 and 2016 after their spending spree in 2014. This winter, the Yankees are expected to spend more heavily on the free agent market than they have in the recent past.

Cashman adds that he is excited about top prospect Gleyber Torres, who the Yankees acquired when they sent Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs and who recently won the MVP of the Arizona Fall League at the tender age of 19.

“When I was out there for the GM meetings, I went to see him play and the buzz among all the baseball people, the scouts and front office execs alike was ’this is the best player in the league,'” Cashman says. “And he was the youngest player in the league, so that’s pretty exciting to hear.”

In the 2016 regular season, Torres batted .254/.341/.385 for Class A+ Tampa. Despite his outstanding .403/.513/.645 showing in Arizona, Cashman says Torres will start the 2017 season with Double-A Trenton. MLB.com currently rates him the Yankees’ second-best prospect, behind Clint Frazier.

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