MLBTR Podcast: Lawrence Butler’s Extension, Gerrit Cole’s TJ, And Rays’ Ownership Pressured To Sell
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Athletics signing Lawrence Butler to an extension (1:55)
- The Yankees losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery (10:00)
- The Mets losing Francisco Alvarez to hamate surgery (19:20)
- The Rays’ stadium and ownership drama (24:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Will the Cubs win the NL Central and how would you rank the AL Central clubs? (34:25)
- Will the spring injuries lead to some deals and keep the hot stove burning into April? (41:35)
- Should fans of the Dodgers be worried by how many old/injury-prone players are on the roster? (47:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Jose Quintana, Luis Gil’s Injury, The Nats’ TV Situation, Salary Floor Talk, And More! – listen here
- Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More! – listen here
- Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr. – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Yankees Still Exploring Market For Right-Handed Bats
The Yankees have been hit hard by injuries both in the lineup and the rotation this spring, creating new needs on top of the existing lack of a clear option at one of third base or second base. (Jazz Chisholm Jr. can play either spot.) Concern over both of Giancarlo Stanton‘s elbows and a calf strain for DJ LeMahieu have subtracted a pair of veteran bats from the lineup.
That’s likely paved the way for Dominic Smith, who’s enjoying a productive spring, to potentially make the club despite entering camp as a non-roster invitee. Erik Boland of Newsday reports that Smith’s chances are indeed improving, but the Yankees are still scouring the market for a right-handed bat to add to the mix. SNY’s Andy Martino also wrote this week that the Yankees are in the market for a righty bat.
One potential candidate to fill that need, outfielder Everson Pereira, was optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre yesterday. Pereira went 7-for-20 with a pair of homers during Grapefruit League play, perhaps making the decision to option him amid multiple injuries a bit surprising.
Pereira, 23, is coming off a solid .265/.346/.512 performance in 182 Triple-A plate appearances last season. The former top prospect missed the final two-thirds of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, however. While his spring output was generally encouraging, Pereira did fan in seven of his 25 plate appearances (28%). That’s not a big enough sample to worry about in isolation, but for a player who punched out at a 32.4% rate prior to that elbow injury in Triple-A last year (and in nearly 29% of his plate appearances the year prior), it’s not ideal. Injuries could always push Pereira back into the big league equation early in the season, and he seems likely to get some major league looks this year at some point, but for now the Yankees will get him regular at-bats in minor league camp and plan for him to open the season with Scranton.
At this point, the free agent market is largely picked over. Veterans Whit Merrifield, Adam Duvall and switch-hitting Robbie Grossman are all unsigned but are all coming off poor years at the plate. (Grossman did at least hit well from the right side of the dish.) The Yankees have had some contact with J.D. Martinez, but he’s a tough fit unless the injury to Stanton proves long-term; both are DH-only players.
As we enter the latter stages of spring training, the market figures to change, however. Veterans who are non-roster invitees with other clubs will be released or opt out of their current deals to seek new opportunities. Others will make their teams’ respective rosters, forcing those clubs to clear space by way of small trades or DFAs. Either could produce some right-handed bench depth for the Yankees if the team wants to avoid further spending with budget near its limit. Then again, Gerrit Cole‘s 2025 salary is partially covered by insurance. That won’t reduce the Yankees’ luxury tax number, but they’ll get some money from that policy which could be redirected to a low-cost bat to round out the roster if an opportunity to their liking presents itself.
Poll: The Yankees’ Priorities
It’s been a tough spring for the Yankees on the injury front. The club has faced a number of noteworthy injuries, with the latest blow being the loss of veteran ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2025 season, while rotation-mate Luis Gil is set to miss a couple of months after suffering a lat strain. The lineup has been impacted as well, with slugger Giancarlo Stanton poised to miss significant time due to elbow issues while likely starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu has been sidelined by a calf strain.
Each of those injuries have prompted varying levels of speculations that the club could look to bring in some help, but the Yankees are seemingly facing fairly strict budget limits. RosterResource projects them for a $285MM payroll. The Yanks have shown little interest in adding payroll, and their projected $305MM competitive balance tax number is already above the $301MM top tax threshold. It would be fairly difficult to make lineup and rotation additions with limited budget space and a limited supply available to them. General manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the Yankees making a notable addition, citing the current tax situation as an obstacle.
Perhaps the most obvious choice for an upgrade would be the starting rotation. The Yankees are already down at least one starter for the entire 2025 season, and while Marcus Stroman can step into the rotation as a #5 starter relatively seamlessly, the depth beyond him gets shakier. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 6.18 ERA over his past two seasons, while prospect Will Warren struggled to a 10.32 ERA in his big league debut last year with an ERA near 6.00 at Triple-A. A steadier depth arm like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson would make plenty of sense for a rotation that has multiple pitchers with notable injury histories.
The Yankees do have plenty of high-end talent in the rotation that could help to make up for the lack of depth. Max Fried is a legitimate No. 1 starter in his own right. Carlos Rodon is just two seasons removed from earning Cy Young votes. Clarke Schmidt posted a sterling 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year. With the reigning AL Rookie of the Year set to join the rotation at some point this year, perhaps the Yankees’ needs are more acute in the lineup.
The idea of filling Stanton’s spot in the lineup is made more intriguing by the presence of a comparable veteran lingering in free agenct. J.D. Martinez remains on the market, and the two sluggers have produced nearly identical offensive value over the past five years: Stanton has slashed .231/.313/.473 with a 117 wRC+, while Martinez has hit .263/.330/.477 with a wRC+ of 118. Even with Martinez coming off a relative down season and a particularly tough second half with the Mets last year, it’s easy to see why having Martinez fill in for Stanton could be very appealing. The Yankees have had at least “some contact” with Martinez since Stanton was sidelined.
Then again, it’s fair to argue that Stanton is the easiest of the injured Yankees to replace in-house. Ben Rice has impressed during Spring Training and was already in the conversation for the backup catcher job. He could be tabbed as a potential DH option against right-handed hitters. Another solution would be giving regulars more rest by playing them at DH on occasion. If the club places Trent Grisham in center field for a day rather than Cody Bellinger, Stanton’s injury could let them give Bellinger a partial rest day at DH or have him back up any of Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, or even Paul Goldschmidt so they could get a rest day of their own.
Third base has also been a question throughout camp. LeMahieu seems like he’ll have a shorter absence than Stanton, but even coming off a down season, his injury thins out the infield options. A mix of LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera always looked fairly uninspiring. An MLBTR poll late last month suggested that a plurality of respondents believed the club’s primary third baseman would be someone not yet in the organization.
The third base market — and second base market, if Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays third instead — has largely been picked over, however. The Yankees were connected to infield options like Jose Iglesias and Jorge Polanco at points throughout the offseason and into Spring Training, but both veterans have since landed elsewhere. Nolan Arenado is known to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees, but it’s unlikely New York would be willing to take on his contract. Veteran Whit Merrifield remains available in free agency but isn’t a clear upgrade coming off a downturn in production at the plate. Perhaps upcoming opt-out opportunities for non-roster veterans and players made available on waivers due to roster crunches when Opening Day draws near will present a more viable solution.
How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees should address their injury-created holes? Will the club sign/acquire a starter to deepen its oft-injured rotation mix? Or could the Yankees instead turn to the lineup and either replace Stanton at DH or look for an upgrade to the infield? Have your say in the poll below:
Where Should The Yankees Prioritize Upgrading?
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Starting Rotation 53% (2,843)
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Third Base/Second Base 39% (2,082)
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Designated Hitter 8% (400)
Total votes: 5,325
Cashman: Yankees Not Likely To Make External Rotation Addition
The Yankees have been hit hard by the injury bug this spring, particularly in the rotation. But general manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the club going outside the organization to get help, per Erik Boland of Newsday and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Cashman said that “very little” is available on the pitching market at this time of year and that the Yanks will “rely on what we have.” While he did say they would explore other options, he admitted that tax penalties make it “less likely” they go with an external addition.
At this point, the rotation challenges are well known. The club lost their ace for the entire season and perhaps some of next year, with Gerrit Cole undergoing Tommy John surgery today. Luis Gil, last year’s Rookie of the Year, has a lat strain that could keep him out for roughly three months. Even deeper down the depth chart, JT Brubaker is out with broken ribs while prospect Chase Hampton also required Tommy John surgery.
That leaves the Yanks with a rotation of Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman. Candidates for a fifth spot include Will Warren, Yoendrys Gómez and Brent Headrick, as well as non-roster invitees like Carlos Carrasco and Allan Winans. That could still be a solid rotation but it’s obviously less imposing without Cole or Gil. Cashman admits that the club “can’t afford to take too many more” injury hits.
That has led to speculation about how the club will respond. Free agency still features guys like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull and others. Guys like Dylan Cease, Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker or Sandy Alcántara might be attainable via trade.
Cashman’s comments suggest he isn’t going to make a move just for the sake of doing one. It’s possible these comments were made for posturing purposes, as he wouldn’t be helping his bargaining position by admitting he’s desperate to bring in another arm.
However, it does seem as though the Yankees hit their spending limit. They were an on-paper fit for adding an infielder and were connected to guys like Jorge Polanco and Brendan Rodgers. Polanco landed with the Mariners on a modest $7.75MM guarantee while Rodgers settled for a minor league deal with the Astros. The Yankees were connected to various relievers this winter but invested very little in their bullpen. They added Devin Williams in a fairly cash-neutral deal that sent Nestor Cortes to the Brewers. They sent Jose Trevino to the Reds for Fernando Cruz, a deal that saved them money. They made modest one-year investments in Jonathan Loáisiga and Tim Hill.
RosterResource has the club’s payroll at $285MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $305MM. They finished 2024 at $303MM and $313MM in those categories respectively, but likely want to save some wiggle room for in-season additions. As Cashman alluded to, the club faces a high tax bill. As third-time payors above the $301MM top threshold of the CBT, they face a 110% tax on anything they add.
The pitching market has softened from earlier in the winter. Guys like Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have recently signed deals in the $4-6MM range, well below the expectations from the start of the offseason. But for the Yankees, giving someone like Gibson a hypothetical $5MM deal would actually cost them more than $10MM, when factoring in the taxes.
There’s also the question of what kind of performance can be expected out of a guy signing this late. Both Montgomery and Blake Snell signed well into spring last year and both struggled out of the gate. Snell got back on track in the second half but Montgomery never did, finishing the year with a 6.23 earned run average. Trading for a pitcher who is stretched out in some other club’s camp wouldn’t come with that concern but each of Cease, Montgomery, Walker and Alcántara have eight-figure salaries for the upcoming year, meaning the CBT hit would be even greater than the available free agent options.
It all makes for a tricky situation as the Yankees approach the start of the season. The rotation has clearly been hit and isn’t in an ideal place. Upgrades are justifiable on paper but Cashman can’t do much if ownership won’t extend his budget.
Gerrit Cole To Have Tommy John Surgery
The Yankees have announced that ace Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure. The team will provide further updates following the surgery, but there is no doubt that the 2023 AL Cy Young winner will miss the entire 2025 season.
Cole, 34, went for diagnostic tests on his elbow last week. He told reporters he was “concerned” by the results of the initial testing but expressed some hope that a second opinion could assuage the worst of his concerns. Unfortunately, Cole’s appointment today with Dr. ElAttrache only confirmed that the right-hander needs Tommy John to repair a torn UCL in his pitching arm.
This is a crushing blow to the reigning AL champions. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 12-18 months. New York survived without Cole for just under three months last season when elbow inflammation kept him out until mid-June. This year, the Yankees will have to get by without their number one starter at all. They must be glad they won the bidding war to sign Max Fried this offseason, inking the two-time All-Star to an eight-year, $218MM deal. The southpaw will now lead a rotation that also features Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. Rounding out the starting five to begin the year will likely be Marcus Stroman (whom the Yankees are surely glad they didn’t trade earlier this offseason) and top pitching prospect Will Warren. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, will miss the beginning of the year with a lat strain but will hopefully return sometime in June. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco is another arm who could offer rotation depth.
That group of arms could still make up a perfectly capable starting rotation for a contending club, but the error bars are much wider now, and there is no question the Yankees are a much less dangerous World Series contender without Cole. It doesn’t help that they’re also dealing with injury issues on the other side of the ball. Veteran bats Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) and DJ LeMahieu (calf) are likely to miss the beginning of the season.
Presumably, the Yankees will consider their options to upgrade their rotation externally. Available free agents include Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Spencer Turnbull, although none of those names offer anything close to the star power the Yankees lost. Thus, if GM Brian Cashman wants to find a top-of-the-rotation replacement for Cole, he’ll have to turn to the trade market. Some of the most interesting potential trade candidates include Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, Luis Castillo of the Mariners, and Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres. The most recent reporting on all of those pitchers suggests that an offseason trade is unlikely, but a desperate Yankees team could certainly change that.
The Yankees had a chance to part ways with the six-time All-Star this offseason when Cole triggered his opt-out clause in November. The team could have blocked his opt-out by adding another year and $36MM to the end of his contract, which they chose not to do. However, the two sides ultimately agreed to stick together as if Cole had never triggered his opt-out in the first place, with the Yankees keeping him around for the four years and $144MM remaining on his original guaranteed deal. In other words, while the Yankees may have had their concerns about Cole’s longevity, they could not have been overly worried that his elbow troubles would rear their ugly head again so soon.
From 2017-22, Cole led all pitchers with 173 starts and 1070 2/3 innings pitched. He dealt with some elbow inflammation in 2016, but from then until 2024, his only IL stint was due to COVID-19 protocols. In an age of ever-increasing arm injuries and ever-decreasing inning counts, Cole has been a workhorse, topping 200 innings in a season six times in the last ten years. Sadly, his run of healthy seasons came to an end last year, and this coming season will be the first since 2012 in which Cole does not pitch. Instead, he will turn his focus toward his rehab in an effort to miss as little of the 2026 campaign as possible.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Art Schallock Passes Away
Former World Series champion Art Schallock passed away last week, according to multiple reports. He was 100 and had held the title of oldest living former MLB player.
Schallock was a native of Mill Valley, California. After serving in the Navy during World War II, he signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers going into the 1947 season. The Dodgers traded him to the Yankees midway through the 1951 campaign. Schallock started six of 11 appearances as a rookie, working to a 3.88 earned run average across 46 2/3 innings. The Yankees defeated the Giants in six games in the World Series. Schallock didn’t make an appearance.
The 5’9″ southpaw bounced between the Bronx and the minors over the next few seasons. The Yankees won the World Series again in both 1952 and ’53. Schallock made an appearance in the latter Series, tossing two innings of one-run ball. He played in New York into 1955, when the Orioles claimed him off waivers. Schallock finished his career in Baltimore, where he worked to a 4.15 ERA across a personal-high 80 1/3 innings.
Over parts of five seasons, he pitched to a 4.02 earned run average in 170 1/3 innings. He recorded 77 strikeouts over his 58 appearances. MLBTR sends our condolences to Schallock’s family, friends and loved ones.
Gerrit Cole Recommended For Tommy John Surgery, Yankees Awaiting Second Opinion
Yankees fans have been nervously awaiting news regarding ace Gerrit Cole ever since he was sent for “diagnostic tests” on his elbow on Friday. Today, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that Cole has been recommended for Tommy John surgery, though the Yankees are currently waiting to receive a second opinion to confirm that diagnosis. The news is in line with reporting yesterday that indicated Cole was “concerned” about his elbow and that the righty was seeking a second opinion on the issue.
If the diagnosis is confirmed, the Yankees would lose Cole for not only the 2025 season but likely at least some of the 2026 campaign as well. Even if a second opinion suggests that Cole could rehab the issue rather than go under the knife, even a relatively minor elbow issue could wipe out much of Cole’s 2025 campaign. It was just last year that the veteran right-hander was sidelined by elbow inflammation for nearly three months at the start of the season and ultimately did not make his season debut until June 19. While it’s impossible to establish a timetable for Cole’s return until the second opinion comes in and the Yankees announce more information about their veteran’s status, even the most optimistic of estimates would likely leave Cole out of commission for around that long.
Last season, the Yankees were able to lean on the surprise contributions of eventual AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to round out their rotation while Cole was absent. They’ll enjoy no such luxury this time around, as Gil is ticketed to miss multiple months himself due to a lat strain. With Cole and Gil both seemingly ticketed for significant absences to open the 2025 campaign, a starting staff that was so overflowing with talent that the Yankees opted to trade Nestor Cortes to the Brewers and aggressively shopped Marcus Stroman throughout the winter will now be searching for answers as they attempt to patch together the back of their rotation.
The good news for the Yankees is that their rotation is still reasonably well-stocked. Max Fried is a viable ace-in-waiting to pick up the slack from the loss of Cole, while Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodon maintain their spots in the middle of the club’s projected rotation. With Stroman sliding into the back of the rotation after entering camp projected for a possible long relief role, that leaves just one spot in the club’s starting five that will need to be filled for the first few months of the season.
The club has a handful of internal options at its disposal, even with well-regarded prospect Chase Hampton having undergone Tommy John surgery himself last month. The top option on the club’s 40-man roster as things stand is right-hander Will Warren, who made his big league debut last year. That cup of coffee at the big league level did not go over very well, as Warren was shelled to the tune of a 10.32 ERA in 22 2/3 innings of work. That was just a glimpse into Warren’s struggles last year, as he also floundered at the Triple-A level with a 5.91 ERA across 23 starts at the highest level of the minors. With that being said, the 25-year-old has impressed so far this spring with a 1.13 ERA in three appearances. If the Yankees believe the issues that plagued Warren in 2024 are behind him, it’s easy to imagine him being chosen as the fifth starter despite the question marks much like Gil last year.
Warren isn’t the only option the Yankees have at their disposal, however, as a handful of non-roster invitees are in camp with the club at present. Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco is just days away from his 38th birthday and has struggled badly the past two years with a 6.18 ERA in 193 2/3 innings of work for the Mets and Guardians, but his 15 years of MLB experience could offer the club some veteran stability at the back of the rotation even if Carrasco’s overall results are very likely to be well below average. Right-hander Allan Winans and southpaw Brandon Leibrandt are among the club’s other non-roster invitees who could theoretically be called upon.
Another option, of course, would be to look outside the organization for rotation help. That’s surely not the Yankees’ preferred course of action; after all, budget concerns kept them from adding a surefire infielder at second or third base to pair with Jazz Chisholm Jr. this winter, leaving the club to sort through lackluster options like Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and the now-injured DJ LeMahieu at the hot corner. With that being said, former Yankee Jordan Montgomery could surely be acquired from the Diamondbacks for virtually no cost other than eating a portion of the lefty’s salary after his difficult 2024 campaign, while interesting options like Kyle Gibson and Spencer Turnbull remain available in free agency. That’s hardly an exhaustive list of potential external candidates, though many clubs may prefer to hold their potential trade chips until the trade deadline at this stage in the calendar unless overwhelmed by an offer.
Giancarlo Stanton Has “Severe” Injuries In Both Elbows
Giancarlo Stanton offered an update this morning about the elbow injuries that have kept him from playing this spring. He told reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, that the problem is “considered severe” in each of his elbows. The Yankees DH remains uncertain as to when he will be able to return to baseball activities of any kind. While he does not yet know if double elbow surgery will be necessary, he said that if he goes under the knife, the surgeries will rule him out for the 2025 season. Thankfully, GM Brian Cashman recently described surgery as a “last resort” for Stanton (per Hoch).
The 35-year-old has received two rounds of PRP injections in both elbows, and he will go for a third round next week. While Stanton is currently with the rest of his Yankees teammates at camp, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Hoch) that the DH is unlikely to see any game action in spring training. Last weekend, the Yankees announced that Stanton would open the season on the IL. They did not provide a timetable for his return. Today’s update doesn’t necessarily push that already uncertain timeline back any further, but Stanton’s use of the word “severe” certainly isn’t promising, nor is the possibility that he could miss the entire 2025 campaign.
It is hard to know what to think about the fact that Stanton attributed his elbow problems to “bat adjustments” he made in 2024. On the one hand, it’s encouraging that he was able to identify the problem; hopefully, that means he knows how to avoid reaggravating the issue once he starts to swing a bat again. On the other hand, Stanton’s powerful swing is his signature skill. Even in his mid-thirties, he had the fastest swing speed in MLB last season, according to Statcast. It’s worth wondering if he can make the necessary bat adjustments to keep his elbows safe without weakening his swing.
While it has been years since Stanton was a true superstar, he was still a valuable contributor to New York’s pennant-winning squad in 2024. He crushed 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a 116 wRC+. His bat was particularly potent in the playoffs; he hit seven homers in 14 games, with a team-leading 16 RBI. The Yankees made some solid additions to the top half of their order this winter, trading for Cody Bellinger and signing free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Still, their offense does not project to be quite as potent without Juan Soto to bat in front of Aaron Judge. Losing Stanton for any period of time will only further weaken the lineup.
Boone said earlier this week that he likes the in-house candidates the team has to replace Stanton, “especially against right-handed pitching” (per Hoch). That could mean using Judge at DH more often and starting the lefty-batting Trent Grisham in the outfield. While Grisham’s bat is a far cry from Stanton’s, such an arrangement would improve the outfield defense and could help Judge stay healthy throughout the season. Another lefty-batting option to get some reps at DH is Ben Rice. Although he struggled in his rookie season (73 wRC+ in 178 PA), Rice mashed throughout the minors and could offer some power in Stanton’s stead. J.C. Escarra is another left-handed hitter on the 40-man roster. He’s nearing 30 and has yet to make his MLB debut, but he hit well last season in his first year in the Yankees organization. Dominic Smith, a veteran non-roster invitee in camp this spring, is another left-handed bat to keep in mind.
Meanwhile, the most likely option to join the mix against left-handed pitching, whether in the outfield or at DH, could be Everson Pereira. Like Rice, Pereira struggled in his brief debut last season but has always hit well – especially in the power department – in the minor leagues. In seven games this spring, Pereira is batting .375 with a 1.224 OPS. He has been limited to DH duty in spring training as he rehabs from UCL surgery, but he could eventually take some reps for Judge in the outfield as well.
Finally, one has to wonder if Cashman is thinking about making an offer to free agent J.D. Martinez. While the Yankees could not feasibly roster both Stanton and Martinez, season-ending surgery for the former could open the door for the latter. To that end, New York has reportedly had “some contact with” Martinez. In a recent MLBTR poll, a plurality of respondents voted the Yankees as the most likely landing spot for the 37-year-old DH.
Gerrit Cole Going For Imaging On Elbow
March 8: According to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, the results of Cole’s initial diagnostic tests have been distributed, and the right-hander is now in the process of seeking a second opinion. While Cole told reporters (including Hoch) that he is “concerned” about his elbow, the 2023 AL Cy Young winner also expressed a bit of optimism. “I’ve still got some hope,” he said. Per Hoch, Cole and the Yankees expect to know more about the status of his elbow in the next few days.
March 7: Gerrit Cole is heading for “diagnostic tests” on his throwing elbow, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. It’s not currently clear whether the Yankees fear a significant injury, or if the testing is more precautionary in nature. In either case, it’s certainly not encouraging news after Cole missed the first couple months of 2024 with elbow inflammation.
It was almost exactly one year ago today that Yankees skipper Aaron Boone revealed that Cole was headed for an MRI. The 2023 Cy Young winner was having difficulty recovering between throwing sessions. Testing didn’t reveal any structural damage, but an inflammation diagnosis necessitated a month-long shutdown. Cole began the season on the 60-day injured list; he didn’t make his season debut until June 19.
Cole stayed healthy for the remainder of the season, aside from one skipped start due to what the team termed general body soreness. He turned in a 3.41 earned run average across 17 starts. While he struggled over his first few outings, Cole was dominant from the beginning of August through the end of the regular season. He turned in a 2.25 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .182/.255/.248 slash line over his final 10 appearances.
The 34-year-old righty took the ball another five times in the postseason. He worked to a 2.17 ERA across 29 playoff innings, but his strikeout rate in October plummeted to a meager 17.7% clip. After the season, he and the Yankees were faced with a decision on his contract. Cole decided to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his nine-year deal. He hoped the Yanks would override that by preemptively triggering a $36MM club option for 2029. The team declined to do so but allowed him to rescind the opt-out and remain with the team on his original contract.
Cole has taken the ball twice during Spring Training. He looked sharp in his first appearance, working 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts on February 28. The Twins torched him for six runs on five hits (including a pair of homers) over 2 2/3 frames yesterday. That alone isn’t cause for concern — Spring Training results are largely immaterial — but Cole evidently hasn’t felt completely healthy. His fastball has averaged 95.5 MPH during his spring work, according to Brooks Baseball. That’s around where it sat last March, a bit below the 97 MPH velocity he’d shown in previous Spring Trainings.
The Yankees won’t have much to report until they receive the imaging results. Even if there’s no structural damage, it seems likely Cole will begin the season on the injured list. The Yanks already lost 2024 Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to a severe lat strain. GM Brian Cashman said on Thursday that the Yankees anticipate an absence of at least three months for the young right-hander (relayed by Greg Joyce of The New York Post). Depth starter JT Brubaker broke three ribs trying to dodge a comebacker early in camp.
New York signed Max Fried to an eight-year, $218MM free agent deal. He’ll probably get the ball on Opening Day. Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodón will follow in the rotation. Marcus Stroman, who entered camp sixth on the depth chart, now projects as the fourth starter. A season-opening IL stint could draw Will Warren or out-of-options righty Yoendrys Gómez into the rotation. New York has Carlos Carrasco and Allan Winans in camp as non-roster invitees.
If Cole winds up missing a decent chunk of time, the Yanks could look to a late free agent acquisition. Veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson remains unsigned; he’s throwing side sessions to stay loose in advance of his age-37 season. Swingman Spencer Turnbull has a spotty injury history but pitched well in 54 1/3 innings for the Phillies last year. Patrick Corbin and former Yankee Lance Lynn are also still free agents.
In a smaller injury development, the Yanks announced this morning that reliever Tyler Matzek sustained a mild right oblique strain (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). The veteran southpaw could resume throwing early next week, but the injury takes him out of consideration for the Opening Day roster. Matzek is in camp as a non-roster invitee. He has tossed one scoreless inning.
Soto: Mets Didn’t Offer The Most Money
The Juan Soto free agency was one of the most anticipated in baseball history. It was expected to deliver historic results and did just that. He signed a massive 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets. That’s the longest contract ever and the largest guarantee. The $51MM average annual value is also a record if one considers the deferrals in Shohei Ohtani‘s deal with the Dodgers. Ohtani technically got $700MM over ten years for a $70MM AAV but the heavy deferrals bring the net present value down to the $45MM range annually.
Despite all those records, Soto claims he could have got more. Abriendo Sports released a teaser for a Spanish-language interview they did with Soto. The full conversation won’t be released until Sunday but reporter Mike Rodriguez provided an English translation of the teaser. Soto says that the field was narrowed to the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox and that the Mets didn’t offer the most money, with multiple teams offering more.
No other details were provided but it’s potentially an interesting bit of information. The five finalists are not surprising, as they were the clubs most often connected to Soto throughout the winter and towards the end of his free agency. Soto’s claim that the offer from the Mets wasn’t actually the highest doesn’t align with previous reporting. At the time of the agreement with the Mets, it was reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post that the Yankees topped out at $760MM over 16 years. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that the Red Sox maxxed out at $700MM over 15. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the Blue Jays stopped short of $700MM. Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Brendan Kuty and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Dodgers stopped at $600MM.
All those numbers are under what Soto got from the Mets, so it’s tough to figure which teams could have had a larger offer than $765MM. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that Boston was one of multiple clubs willing to go higher than the top offer if they thought Soto would accept, but he went to the Mets because of the “family-friendly vibe” established by Alex Cohen, wife of Mets owner Steve Cohen. Perhaps the Red Sox had topped out at $700MM in terms of an official offer but had made some sort of verbal indication to Soto and agent Scott Boras that they were willing to keep pushing.
Speculatively speaking, it’s also possible that there was some creative accounting going on. The Dodgers are famous/infamous for their heavy use of deferred money in the contracts they sign with players. Ohtani’s contract is the most extreme example. As mentioned, it came with an advertised sticker price of $700MM but actually had a net present value that the league calculated at just over $460MM while the MLBPA calculated it around $438MM. While the Dodgers reportedly stopped their offer at $600MM, perhaps that was a post-deferral number, while the offer might have had a shinier pre-deferral number.
Or perhaps there was some mystery team willing to throw out wild numbers that Soto never took especially seriously. 11 clubs reportedly reached out to him at the start of free agency. Soto was connected to clubs like the Giants, Phillies, Rays, Royals and even his original Nationals club at various points through the offseason. None of them seemed to get especially close. The Rays reportedly offered Soto some kind of high-AAV deal on a short-term, so it’s also possible that’s what Soto is referring to. Maybe the Rays offered a higher AAV than the Mets but with far fewer years.
Ultimately, it’s all a moot point. Soto has signed with the Mets and that can’t be changed now. Still, it does make for fun hypothetical speculation. Teams generally went nuts for Soto because of his incredible track record at such a young age. Many top prospects don’t debut until their mid-20s but Soto already had 936 big league games under his belt by the end of his age-25 season. And he had hit .285/.421/.532 for a 158 wRC+ in those. To get that player with so many prime years remaining was a very rare alignment that led to an unprecedented bidding war and perhaps we don’t know how high it actually could have gone.