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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Poll: Who Wins The World Series?

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The most common rivalry in World Series history is being renewed for the first time since 1981, as the Dodgers and Yankees will meet for a record 12th time in the Fall Classic.  New York holds an 8-3 lead in the previous matchups, which included such iconic baseball moments as Jackie Robinson’s steal of home, Don Larsen’s perfect game, Reggie Jackson’s three-homer performance, and many more.

Now, a modern set of superstar players will square off.  Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Teoscar Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among those trying to win their first World Series rings, while the likes of Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are looking to add to their already-storied October legacies.

The L.A. lineup was simply too much for the Mets in the NLCS, as the Dodgers scored 46 runs over the six games.  While the Dodgers’ reliever-heavy pitching attack is still trying to cover innings amidst a lot of injuries to regular starters, the team is perhaps just pitching too well to really call it a “patchwork” staff any more — Los Angeles has recorded four shutouts in its last eight playoff games.

The New York offense was also too much for the Guardians in the ALCS, with Stanton and Soto in particular leading the way with a combined seven homers and 13 RBI over the five-game series.  Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have also formed a powerful three-man front in the rotation, and Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence as the Yankees’ closer has continued into a largely dominant postseason.

The Yankees are looking to add to their record total of 27 championships, though they are in a relative drought by the franchise’s lofty standards.  This is only the second time in 21 seasons that New York has taken part in the World Series, with the only other appearance in that span coming in 2009 when the Yankees defeated the Phillies.  The Dodgers have “only” seven titles to show from their 22 trips to the World Series, but they have the most recent victory, capturing the 2020 Series that followed the pandemic-shortened regular season.

Since the Dodgers won 98 regular-season games to the Yankees’ 94 wins, Los Angeles holds the home-field advantage, so the World Series is set to begin on Friday at Dodger Stadium.  Just one question remains….what’s your prediction?

(poll link for app users)

Postseason Notes: Dodgers, Cortes, Senga

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The Dodgers are headed back to L.A. for Game 6 of the NLCS with a 3-2 lead, but the club nonetheless faces some question marks regarding who exactly they’ll have available tomorrow. Catcher Will Smith departed Game 5 early after taking a pitch off of his glove hand during the game, but per Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times x-rays on Smith’s hand came back negative and he’s expected to be available for Game 6. That’s surely a relief for the Dodgers, given that Smith (111 wRC+) is a massive improvement over back-up Austin Barnes (86 wRC+) with the bat.

Unfortunately, things are less certain regarding first baseman Freddie Freeman. The veteran star has struggled at the dish of late while playing through a sprained ankle, with just one hit in his last 15 at-bats. While Jack Harris of the L.A. Times notes that manager Dave Roberts noted that Freeman is expected to play in tomorrow’s game just as Smith is, there was more uncertainty regarding Freeman’s availability as Roberts said he did not plan to decide if Freeman will start today and that whether or not he’s in the lineup tomorrow will be determined by how the veteran feels tomorrow. Should Freeman wind up missing tomorrow’s game, Max Muncy would likely slide from third base to first, opening up the hot corner for Enrique Hernandez and center field for Andy Pages.

More from around the playoff clubs…

  • Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes was left off the club’s roster for the ALCS as he rehabs a late-season flexor strain that’s left him sidelined for nearly a month now. Fortunately, Cortes now appears closer than ever to a return to action. As noted by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, the southpaw has continued to progress well and figures to have just one hurdle left to clear in his rehab: a live bullpen session in the coming days. If Cortes gets through that bullpen successfully, Kirschner suggests that Cortes is “expected” to be on the club’s World Series roster should they advance. The return of Cortes would surely be a huge boost to the Yankees’ bullpen mix, particularly after they lost right-hander Ian Hamilton for the World Series yesterday due to a calf injury. Cortes would also add another lefty option to the club’s relief corps. The club currently only features Tim Hill and Tim Mayza as lefty relief options, the latter has allowed four of eight batters to reach base to this point in the postseason.
  • Moving on to the Mets, the club opted to give the ball to left-hander David Peterson rather than right-hander Kodai Senga in Game 5 yesterday, and that decision seems to leave the door open to a role change for Senga late in the series. As relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters today that he “won’t hesitate” to hand Senga the ball in a relief role in tomorrow’s game despite Senga having been exclusively used as a starter throughout his MLB career to this point. With Senga evidently available out of the pen, the Mets may have a potentially dynamic relief weapon on their hands who’s capable of pitching multiple innings as a bridge to closer Edwin Diaz. Of course, that would require Senga to have ironed out the issues that saw him walk four batters and allow three runs in 1 1/3 innings of work against the Dodgers earlier in this series.

Ian Hamilton Replaced By Mark Leiter Jr. On Yankees’ ALCS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster substitution for the Yankees, with right-hander Ian Hamilton replaced by fellow righty Mark Leiter Jr. Playoff rules dictate that a player removed due to an injury is ineligible to play in that series as well as the following one, so Hamilton won’t be eligible to play in the World Series if the Yankees advance.

The move doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Hamilton was removed from last night’s game against the Guardians with an injury that he appeared to sustain while covering first base on a ground ball. The Yankees described his injury as left calf tightness and it now appears that it’s serious enough that they felt compelled to make a switch.

That could be because they don’t expect Hamilton back in the next few weeks or simply because they didn’t want to play short-handed for the next few days. The Yanks are about to play their second of three consecutive games and used six relievers in last night’s ten-inning contest that they eventually lost. Even if there was a chance that Hamilton’s calf would be healed by later in this series or in the World Series, they might need the extra arm to get through tonight and tomorrow.

Hamilton, 29, wasn’t the most important arm in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen. Last night’s appearances was just his second of this year’s playoffs. But he was solid during the regular season, making 35 appearances with a 3.82 earned run average. He struck out 25.2% of batters faced, walked 8.2% of them and got grounders on 43.8% of balls in play. He earned one save and 11 holds this year, the latter number coming in third on the team behind Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle.

Leiter, 33, had some strong recent results with the Cubs but struggled after a deadline deal that sent him to the Bronx. From the start of 2022 until the trade, he posted a 3.85 ERA in 168 1/3 innings for the Cubs. In that time, he had a 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate.

At the end of July, the Yanks sent minor leaguers Ben Cowles and Jack Neely to the Cubs in order to acquire Leiter, but he posted a 4.98 ERA in his 21 appearances for the Yanks after that deal. While many Yankee fans groan at the mere mention of Leiter’s name, the baseball gods were seemingly responsible for a lot of those runs.

As a Yankee, Leiter’s 39% ground ball rate was subpar but his 31.7% strikeout rate was strong and his 8.7% walk rate around average. But he had a .407 batting average on balls in play and a 26.1% homer to fly ball ratio, both of which are unsustainably high. His 2.86 SIERA in that stretch suggests that he was far better than his ERA would have you believe in that small sample.

Leiter was left off the Yankee roster for the ALDS and ALCS but Hamilton’s injury opens the door for him. He and the Yankees will be hoping for better fortune as they look to defeat the Guardians and move on to the World Series. They lead the ALCS two games to one with game four set to begin in Cleveland at 8:08 local time tonight.

AL East Notes: Cortes, Rizzo, Fulmer, Morel

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Nestor Cortes was set to throw what he described as a hybrid bullpen session today, telling the New York Post’s Greg Joyce (X link) and other reporters that the session would consist of 10-15 pitches each in a normal bullpen and then 10-15 pitches to hitters.  It is Cortes’ latest step in his recovery from a flexor strain that has kept him out of action since September 18, and therefore kept him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff run.  With no setbacks to date, Cortes aims to face live batters again this weekend, and is looking to be well enough to be activated for the World Series roster should New York advance to the Fall Classic.

Cortes can hope that his potential return goes as smoothly as Anthony Rizzo’s activation from the injured list, as Rizzo is thus far 3-for-7 with a walk over the first two games of the ALCS.  Rizzo suffered two fractured fingers on his right hand after he was hit by a Ryan Borucki pitch on September 28, and he missed the last couple of regular-season games as well as the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Royals.  Manager Aaron Boone told Joyce and company that Rizzo is still receiving near-constant treatment from the club’s medical staff in order to stay on the field.

More from around the AL East…

  • It was almost exactly one year ago that Michael Fulmer underwent a UCL revision surgery, which ended the right-hander’s 2024 season before it even began.  After a year of rehab, however, Fulmer told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link) that he is back to throwing off a mound and “is trending well for” the start of Spring Training.  Despite the injury, Fulmer still landed a contract last offseason, as the Red Sox signed him to a two-year minor league contract with the knowledge that the 2024 campaign would be a wash.  Fulmer’s turn towards relief pitching in 2021 yielded pretty positive results over the 2021-23 seasons, and if he finally get healthy during what has been an injury-plagued career, Fulmer is an intriguing no-risk flier for the Sox heading into next season.
  • Christopher Morel had long been a Rays trade target before the club finally landed him in the four-player deadline deal that sent Isaac Paredes to the Cubs.  However, Morel’s first two months in a Tampa uniform were a struggle, as he hit only .191/.258/.289 over 190 plate appearances.  “There were signs underneath he was really unlucky in terms of the balls hit in play,” Rays president of baseball ops Erik Neander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, in a nod to Morel’s .233 BABIP for the season.  Neander is still bullish on Morel’s potential for 2025 and beyond, and felt that the Rays’ decision to move him to second base and left field (after he’d played third base with the Cubs all season) maybe also “took a toll on him offensively.”  Even the trade itself might’ve been a factor, as Neader noted “that new environment, that first taste of it, if you don’t get off to a great start or hold it, it can be difficult.  It’s a hard thing to recover.  Sometimes it takes that first offseason to come in and be familiar with that environment, to really be yourself again.”  There is plenty of time for the Rays to figure out a player who is under team control through the 2028 season, and who has shown flashes of his power potential over his three MLB seasons to date.
  • In other AL East news from earlier today….Topkin had a big update on the state of Tropicana Field in the wake of Hurricane Milton, Masataka Yoshida underwent shoulder surgery, and MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series delivered entries on the Blue Jays and Orioles.

Anthony Rizzo, Marcus Stroman On Yankees’ ALCS Roster

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The Yankees announced their ALCS roster this morning, revealing that first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Marcus Stroman are back in the fold after sitting out their Division Series win over the Royals.

Rizzo suffered a pair of broken fingers when he was hit by a pitch in September and was seen as a borderline call for the League Championship Series as he worked through his rehab. Stroman was healthy but not included on the Division Series roster after skipper Aaron Boone made what he described as a difficult decision to exclude the veteran in favor of an extra bat in a five-game series. With the Yankees now likely to rely on four starters rather than three, Stroman is back in the mix.

Rizzo has had a rough season overall, enduring multiple IL stints and posting a career-worst .228/.301/.335 batting line in 92 games and 375 plate appearances. He’s one of the team’s most experienced playoff veterans, however, carrying 203 career plate appearances — including a hefty .276/.432/.552 slash in nine playoff games as a member of the Yankees. Rizzo was also a thorn in the side of the Guardians this season, going 5-for-13 with a double, a walk and three RBIs in the three games he was healthy enough to face them.

Stroman inked a two-year deal with the Yankees last offseason and started 29 games for them in 2024 (in addition to one relief appearance). He pitched 154 2/3 innings, logging a 4.31 ERA with a 16.7% strikeout rate, an 8.9% walk rate and a 49.2% grounder rate. Both that strikeout rate and ground-ball rate represent notable steps back from Stroman’s 2023 levels, and this year’s 90 mph average velocity on his sinker was the lowest of his career by a wide margin (replacing last year’s 91.4 mph average). The Yankees currently have Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt lined up to start the first three games of the series, which starts tonight at 7:38pm ET in the Bronx.

Noticeably absent from the Yankees’ roster in the ALCS is southpaw Nestor Cortes. Like Rizzo, he’d been dealing with an injury and was seen as a borderline call. He’s been out with a flexor strain in his left elbow, but imaging revealed no damage to Cortes’ ulnar collateral ligament, and he’d recently been throwing after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. Presumably, they’ll reevaluate him and consider him as a potential option for the World Series, should the Yankees topple the Guardians and advance to the Fall Classic.

The Yankees will drop speedy outfielder and pinch-running/defensive specialist Duke Ellis as well as catcher/first baseman Ben Rice from the roster for this series. Ellis appeared in only one game of the ALDS (Game 4) and did not record a plate appearance. Rice did not get into a game in the Division Series, as the Yankees instead went with utilitymen Jon Berti and Oswaldo Cabrera at first base in place of the injured Rizzo.

Here’s the full breakdown of New York’s roster as they battle Cleveland for the AL pennant:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Utility Players

Pitchers

Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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Yesterday, the Guardians punched their ticket to the ALCS with an emphatic 7-3 win over the Tigers that included a Lane Thomas Grand Slam off of likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, allowing Cleveland to take the fifth and and final game of the series.

As the NLCS (the result of which you can vote on here) kicks off between the Dodgers and Mets today, the Guardians will be traveling to New York for Game 1 against the Yankees, which is scheduled for tomorrow night. The Yankees spent the early part of the weekend waiting to see who their opponent would be after dispatching the Royals in four games. The early finish to the series gave the club three days off to realign their rotation and rest their bullpen for the upcoming seven-game set, a welcome breather given the fact that the Orioles hung around the AL East race deep into September.

No one should be surprised the Yankees have made it this far. After all, just two years after Aaron Judge’s herculean 62-homer effort delivered the club to the postseason despite virtually no support from the rest of the lineup throughout the second half of the season in 2022, Judge delivered arguably an even more impressive season in 2024 that should earn him his second AL MVP trophy. Perhaps even more important than Judge’s dominant season, however, is the fact that this year he had help in the form of Juan Soto. The Yankees were aggressive in pursuing Soto when the Padres made him available last winter, and ultimately gave up a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe to acquire another star who could complement Judge in the lineup. Soto delivered on that promise and then some, slashing a sensational .288/.419/.569 in 157 games amid the best season of the 25-year-old’s career.

While the Yankees were widely expected to make some noise this season after adding Soto, the Guardians entered the 2024 season as little more than an afterthought. The club went just 76-89 last year and made few major changes over the offseason besides hiring Stephen Vogt to take over in the dugout after longtime manager Terry Francona elected to depart the club amid health issues, and an early-season injury to Shane Bieber in his final year under club control appeared to many to be the final nail in the club’s coffin this year.

That’s not how things turned out, however, as the Guardians managed to ride strong production from Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan in the lineup in conjunction with an otherworldly effort from the club’s bullpen to 92 wins, enough to dominate a resurgent and highly competitive AL Central division. While the entire Cleveland bullpen was extremely impressive, with a collective 2.57 ERA that was more than half a run better than the league’s second-best relief corps, closer Emmanuel Clase put together one of the most impressive seasons by a reliever in MLB history. Among all relief seasons with at least 50 innings of work since the start of the modern era in 1901, Clase’s ERA- of 15 ranks second to only Zack Britton’s dominant 2016 season. Even looking beyond Clase, however, the Cleveland bullpen has been something to behold this year as Eli Morgan, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and youngster Cade Smith each joined Clase in posting sub-2.00 ERAs, though none were quite as dominant as their closer’s 0.61 figure.

The Guardians, without any notable players on the verge of returning from injury or suffering from known day-to-day issues that could take them out of discussion for the roster, aren’t facing much uncertainty regarding their roster as they prepare to submit their final roster decisions tomorrow. The same cannot be said for the Yankees, who plan to wait until Monday to finalize decisions not only on how many pitchers the club will carry into the ALCS but also on the status of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who suffered two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season and was unavailable during the ALDS.

In the rotation, it seems fair to say the Yankees have a substantial advantage. While neither side has announced a probable starter for Game 1, the club has penciled veteran ace Gerrit Cole in to start Game 2 and with breakout rookie Luis Gil expected to take the ball later in the series, it seems likely that either lefty Carlos Rodon or righty Clarke Schmidt will be on the bump for New York in Game 1, with Marcus Stroman also available as a potential depth option for the rotation if necessary.

The Guardians, meanwhile, relied on the trio of Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb to get them through the ALDS. Cobb will be the only one on full rest in time for Game 1, making him the club’s most likely option to start the game, but it’s worth noting that both he and Boyd combined for just 11 starts during the regular season and managed just 9 2/3 innings across their three starts during the ALDS. Dominant as the Guardians’ bullpen has been this postseason, it remains to be seen if the club can rely on their relievers to throw nearly 60% of the team’s innings in a seven-game series as they did during their five-game set against the Tigers.

How will the ALCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?

Yankees Notes: Pitching Staff, Rizzo, Verdugo

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The Yankees now know they’ll be taking on the Guardians in the ALCS when it begins on Monday, and manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) about the club’s roster plans for the coming series. Of note, Boone indicated that after bringing just 11 pitchers to the ALDS they’ll be expanding their pitching staff headed into the seven-game set, though it’s not yet clear whether they’ll use the maximum 13 pitchers allowed or settle for 12 in order to maintain a more flexible bench.

Regardless of how many pitchers end up coming, the Yankees will need to utilize four rotation arms in the upcoming seven-game series after turning to only Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt in the best-of-five ALDS. Per Hoch, Boone indicated that right-hander Luis Gil will be joining the club’s rotation for the ALCS, though neither he nor Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 with Cole scheduled for a start in Game 2 and Gil expected to start later in the series. That would seemingly leave either Rodon or Schmidt lined up to start the first game of the ALCS.

Schmidt has both the stronger regular season and postseason numbers of the pair, having posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 regular season starts and thrown 4 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Royals during the ALDS. With that said, Rodon did strike out seven batters in his 3 2/3 innings of work during the ALDS (albeit with four earned runs on his ledger) and would be start Game 1 on an additional day of rest as compared to Schmidt. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman is also theoretically available to start if needed but seems likely to be used as a starter only in an emergency after being moved to the bullpen late in the regular season and being left off the ALDS roster entirely. Stroman could make the ALCS roster as a multi-inning reliever or emergency starter, though it’s also possible the club could want to add another short relief arm such as Mark Leiter Jr. to their bullpen mix headed into the series.

As the Yankees ponder how many pitchers to roster for the ALCS, one potential factor in that decision could be how many roster spots they need to allocate to first base. Veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo was absent from the ALDS roster after suffering two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season. In his stead, the Yankees relied on a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at first base when facing Kansas City. The pair went a combined 3-for-12 with a double, four walks and four strikeouts during the series and could be turned to once again at first depending on Rizzo’s status.

Rookie Ben Rice was also on the ALDS roster as a first base option but ultimately did not make it into a game, making him a logical cut from the ALCS roster either for the return of Rizzo or the addition of another pitcher. Hoch relays that Boone told reporters the veteran first baseman was making “some progress” as he looks to return in time for the ALCS, though Boone didn’t get into specifics about Rizzo’s status and noted that a final decision about his availability likely would not be made until the club finalizes its roster plans on Monday.

One position that seems fairly set in stone for the Bronx headed into next week’s series, however, is left field. After a lackluster regular season that saw the Yankees briefly turn to top prospect Jasson Dominguez over him down the stretch, Verdugo received the nod in left field headed into the playoffs. While Verdugo went just three-for-14 in the ALDS this year, he did deliver a clutch performance in Game 1 where he notched two hits, knocked in the go-ahead run and made an impressive defensive play in the outfield to rob Royals second baseman Michael Massey of a hit.

Verdugo’s Game 1 heroics were evidently enough to earn him a starting nod in the left field headed into the ALCS, as Boone indicated (as relayed by Hoch) that the outfielder is “likely” to remain the club’s starter in left for their coming series against Cleveland. Dominguez, Trent Grisham, and Duke Ellis were other outfielders included on the club’s ALDS roster, Ellis’s brief cameo a pinch runner in Game 5 was the only appearance any of the three made during the series. If the Yankees ultimately decide to go to 13 pitchers on the roster, cutting one of those outfield options could be another way to free up space for more pitching.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Division Series?

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Last night, MLBTR readers weighed in on the National League Division Series. With both series knotted up 1-1 at the time, readers heavily favored the Padres to upset the Dodgers while giving a slight edge to the Phillies to take down the Mets. The lower seeds each prevailed at home tonight to put the NL’s top two teams on the brink of elimination.

Tuesday was a travel day in the American League. Those series are also squared at a game apiece, providing an opportunity to check in on those sets. The Guardians destroyed the Tigers in Game 1, but Kerry Carpenter hit a game-winning homer in the ninth off Emmanuel Clase to give the Tigers a 3-0 win in the second game. The Royals rebounded after dropping a back-and-forth contest against the Yankees in Game 1. Kansas City rode a four-run fourth inning to a relatively easy 4-2 victory in Game 2.

Cleveland and Detroit will kick off play on Wednesday afternoon. The Guardians are turning to Alex Cobb in what will be just his fourth appearance in a Cleveland uniform. Cleveland landed Cobb from the Giants at the deadline to address a rotation that was the team’s biggest weakness. Cobb had spent the first few months of the season on the IL rehabbing last fall’s hip surgery. Blisters and a cracked fingernail on his throwing hand limited him to a trio of regular season appearances. Cobb pitched well in that brief action, allowing five earned runs with 10 strikeouts and three walks over 16 1/3 innings. This will be his first game in almost six weeks.

The Tigers haven’t announced a starter to oppose Cobb. Detroit has mostly ridden bullpen games behind ace Tarik Skubal and second starter Reese Olson. They’ll probably have Olson lined up for Game 4 with Skubal on tap if the series gets a decider. Tomorrow is likely to be an all hands on deck affair. Cleveland could go back to respective Games 1 and 2 starters Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd after tomorrow.

There’s a more conventional pitching matchup in Kansas City. The hosts will turn to Seth Lugo, who turned in an even 3.00 earned run average across 206 2/3 innings during his first season with the Royals. The potential Cy Young finalist tossed 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against Baltimore in the clincher of last week’s Wild Card series — the first postseason start of Lugo’s career. New York counters with Clarke Schmidt, who’ll be starting a playoff game for the first time himself. The former first-round pick had a 2.85 ERA over 16 starts in the regular season. He lost three months midseason to a lat strain but was excellent when healthy.

New York and Kansas City already list Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha as the respective probable starters for Game 4. Neither team has announced its pitcher for a potential Game 5. That’d likely be a rematch of Monday’s pitching matchup between K.C. ace Cole Ragans and Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodón with both pitchers on regular rest by Saturday.

Which teams will vie for the ALCS next week?

 

 

AL East Notes: Bichette, Yoshida, Cortes

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The Blue Jays had some largely “exploratory” trade talks involving Bo Bichette early last offseason, TSN’s Scott Mitchell writes.  This isn’t exactly new news, as multiple reports last November indicated that the shortstop’s name indeed come up in trade discussions, though those talks were portrayed as other teams checking on Bichette’s availability.  Mitchell, however, specifies that “the Jays did indeed shop Bichette.”

As always, there’s plenty of gray area when parsing hot-stove terminology, as the distinction between actively trying to move Bichette and listening on Bichette trade offers could be pretty thin.  Executives routinely discuss scores of players in trade talks with other clubs, just as a matter of due diligence in gauging interest.  For instance, if Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins had learned that a rival club had a particular interest in Bichette and had a player or players that the Jays liked, Atkins might have been more inclined to “shop” Bichette in that particular direction in order to swing a favorable trade for Toronto.  In any case, as Mitchell observes, revisiting any trade talks involving Bichette this winter could be difficult because the shortstop is coming off an injury-plagued down year, so the Blue Jays aren’t likely to land a premium return even if they did look to move Bichette.

More from around the AL East….

  • “Some clear discord” developed between the Red Sox and Masataka Yoshida last April, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes, when Yoshida was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left thumb sprain.  Yoshida chose to seek out second and third opinions on his sprain, which apparently didn’t sit well with the team, who felt the initial assessment (that Yoshida wouldn’t need surgery) was enough.  Yoshida ended up not needing surgery, and spent a little more than six weeks on the IL before returning in mid-June.  Between this situation and Yoshida’s displeasure at being a DH-only player who mostly faced only right-handed pitching, Cotillo wonders if both sides would benefit from a trade this winter.  Such a move is easier said than done, of course, as Yoshida is owed $54MM over the 2025-27 seasons, and has been good (112 wRC+ in 1001 plate appearances) but not great over his two Major League seasons.  Yoshida was also playing through a shoulder problem for much of 2024, which could represent another red flag for any interested trade suitors.
  • Nestor Cortes is slated to throw between 20-30 times during a game of catch today, the Yankees left-hander told The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty.  This represents the first time Cortes has thrown since suffering a flexor strain in late September.  Cortes said he was “feeling good” in his recovery to date, and “if my body responds and if my arm responds, we’ll try to be as quick as possible” in charting out a potential return to the mound.  The Yankees would naturally need to advance to at least the ALCS in order to give Cortes any chance of pitching again in 2024, and even if New York does get deeper into October, it remains to be seen if Cortes will be able to be healthy enough to merit a roster spot.
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