NL Central Notes: Cubs, Reds, Castillo, Baker,
Yesterday, we learned that the Cubs will contact Padres executive A.J. Hinch about a possible return to managing. The Cubs obviously have a big focus on player development and Hinch's work with Justin Upton, Max Scherzer, Stephen Drew, and Miguel Montero is likely a plus for the club. Here's a look at the NL Central as the Pirates get set to do battle with the Cardinals..
- Tim Dierkes (via Twitter) has talked with multiple agents who see the Cubs spending significant money on a free agent catcher this winter. That comes as something of a surprise following a solid year by Wellington Castillo, who is still pre-arbitration eligible. Castillo, 26, hit .274/.349/.397 in 428 plate appearances this season.
- The Cubs aren't locked on to anyone in their managerial search, but they have serious interest in Yankees skipper Joe Girardi, sources tell ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Cubs ownership is rather high on Girardi and they're making a strong internal argument to hire him. Meanwhile, Yanks GM Brian Cashman is scheduled to meet with Girardi's agent today.
- In the immediate aftermath of last night's loss, Reds GM indicated that Dusty Baker will be back in 2014, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. When asked if there was any question about Baker returning, Jocketty said: “I don’t think so. He’s signed for another year.” The final call on the veteran skipper will be made by owner Bob Castellini.
- The Cubs have a plan in place for the future but it will require patience as their top prospects aren't ready for the big leagues yet, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. President Theo Epstein has indicated that he won't spend a ton this winter and will instead look to fill holes with low-cost signings.
Yankees Notes: Martin, Cano, Cashman, A-Rod
Yesterday, Yankees GM Brian Cashman spent almost an hour talking to the New York media about the offseason ahead. Cashman said that the club has made or will make a significant offer to Robinson Cano, but one has to imagine that the second baseman won't view the club's opening proposal in that light. Cano and baseball's newest power agent are reportedly seeking a deal in excess of $300MM while the Yankees are just months removed from pitching a contract similar to David Wright's eight-year, $138MM pact. Here's more out of the Bronx..
- After watching Russell Martin go yard twice in last night's win over the Reds, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com wonders how the Yankees ever let him get away. The Pirates wound up signing him for $17MM over two years while the Bombers batted around "concepts" of a $12-$14MM deal without officially making an offer.
- Cashman has a full plate of problems to deal with this winter, writes David Lennon of Newsday. The GM credited ownership in yesterday's presser for spending the cash to go out and get Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano to help cover up for the club's injuries, but those were nothing more than short-term fixes. Lennon also isn't optimistic about their chances of keeping Robinson Cano given the gap in negotiations.
- As the Yankees' old core moves out of the picture, the Bombers don't have a new core to take their place, Steve Politi of the Star-Ledger writes. There doesn't appear to be a lot of upper-level help as the Yankees didn't see strong seasons from catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielders Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin, and Mason Williams. It's a problem that'll hurt them as they try to stay under the $189MM threshold.
- Alex Rodriguez's representatives presented a case to arbitrators that argues, in part, that he was tricked into taking steroids, sources tell Teri Thompson, Michael O'Keeffe, Michael Red, and Nathaniel Vinton of the New York Daily News.
Cashman On Cano, Girardi, Drafts
Yankees GM Brian Cashman spent 50 minutes addressing the media on Monday, and Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger has much of the transcript. Some highlights:
- The Yankees have made, or will make, a "significant offer" to keep second baseman Robinson Cano. Cashman suggests that Cano has a chance to "experience what you just saw a little bit from Mariano," meaning that, by sticking with the Yankees, Cano would have a chance to build a legacy in New York.
- The Yankees would like to keep manager Joe Girardi. Cashman will not confirm whether the Cubs had asked to speak to him, and would not say whether he would grant the Cubs permission. Girardi is under contract until November 1. "I can’t speak to other opportunities. I can’t control what other options or interests may be out there," Cashman says of Girardi. "If you’re good at what you do, people are going to have some interest. You can’t predict the future on that. You can only control your side. But I feel we hired a good one."
- Cashman lists the starting rotation, second base, shortstop and third base as areas the Yankees might address in the offseason.
- Cashman cites signability and injuries as issues that have affected the Yankees' drafting. For example, the Yankees drafted Gerrit Cole in 2008 and did not sign him; another first-round pick, Ty Hensley, got hurt. Cashman also says the Yankees have sometimes had trouble keeping prospects healthy and moving in the right direction, mentioning Manny Banuelos as an example of the former and Dellin Betances as an example of the latter.
- The team's attempt to stay under the $189MM luxury-tax threshold is a "goal," not a "mandate," Cashman says. "It’s possible that there’s a lot of benefits to staying under that. But it’s not a mandate if it’s at the expense of a championship run."
AL East Notes: Girardi, Feldman, Hammel, McLouth, Jays
The Rays and Rangers will square off in a one-game playoff to determine the second American League Wild Card team tonight and finalize the postseason picture. Should the Rays come up short, it will mark the first time since 2006 in which the AL East has not been represented by two teams in the postseason (the Yankees, Twins, Tigers and A's were playoff teams that year). Here's more on the AL East…
- There has been increasing speculation about whether or not Yankees manager Joe Girardi will return to the team in 2014 given his expiring contract, and ESPN's Buster Olney hears that the Yanks will have to significantly increase Girardi's $3MM salary in order to retain him (Twitter link).
- There's mutual interest between Scott Feldman and the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko thinks the O's will re-sign their midseason acquisition unless another team vastly overpays for him on the free agent market.
- Within that piece, Kubatko also notes that free agent Jason Hammel's tenure with the Orioles is likely finished. He adds that if our own Tim Dierkes' two-year, $10MM projection for Nate McLouth is accurate, then McLouth is as good as gone, too.
- The Blue Jays' payroll won't be moving back in 2014, GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters yesterday, including MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. Anthopoulos stated that the team was more likely to address its holes via trade than free agency, noting that this year's free agent crop is once again looking weak. Chisholm lists second base and starting catcher as areas of focus, and he also notes that Toronto is searching for at least one middle-of-the-rotation starter.
AL Notes: Cruz, Yankees, Wedge, Blue Jays
Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz will be back for Game 163 against the Rays, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports. Cruz, who was suspended for 50 games for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, will be activated in time for the game on Monday. Cruz adds a big bat to Texas' lineup, and for what it's worth, he has good numbers against Rays starter David Price in a small sample. Miller contrasts Cruz's situation with Melky Cabrera's disappearance from the Giants last season — unlike Cabrera, Cruz put his team in a good position to opt to activate him because he expressed regret about what he had done and stayed in touch with his teammates. Here are more notes from the American League.
- Upper-level Yankees employees were frustrated that the team got so little high-end help from its farm system this year, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. There may be "a scapegoat or two" for that problem, but not GM Brian Cashman or manager Joe Girardi. Instead, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer or senior vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman could be out of a job.
- Eric Wedge, who managed his last game with the Mariners on Sunday, left his post with dignity, says Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. His decision to leave the team may have seemed strange, particularly after GM Jack Zduriencik said he had no plans to fire Wedge. But, Baker says, Wedge "doesn’t just talk the talk. He walks the walk, even when it required him to swallow some job security and walk the walk right on out of here."
- The Blue Jays could aim to trade relievers this offseason, Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca writes. "The club’s surplus of relievers is one area of depth we might have that could be attractive to other teams," says GM Alex Anthopoulos. "[I]t will not surprise me if maybe we use some of that depth to help the club in some other areas." Despite suffering through a disappointing season in 2013, the Jays finished with the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the American League, at 3.39. Given their salaries and 2013 performance, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup would all make attractive trade candidates.
Managerial Notes: Girardi, Scioscia, Gardy, Collins
As regular season finales are being played out across MLB today, rumors have already started to swirl about the fate of several managers. Here's the latest news and notes on that front:
- Joe Girardi met with reporters today (Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger provides a partial transcript) and admitted he has yet to make up his mind about returning to the Yankees next season. "It comes down to family. They are first," said Girardi. "Whatever is best for the group of us, not one individual, not me or just my wife, or just one of my children, whatever is best for us as a group, that’s what we’ll decide to do. And that’s something I put some thought into, and I’m going to have to think about a lot over the next few days, obviously." Girardi added money will not play a factor in his decision.
- Many have speculated Girardi could be the next Cubs manager, if Dale Sveum is fired. Girardi, however, downplayed the connection to his hometown. "I haven’t lived there since 2006. I have a brother still there, a couple brothers there, actually. But my father’s gone. My mother’s gone. So there’s not as much there as there used to be."
- Davey Johnson told reporters, including MASNsports.com's Dan Kolko, he will not manage in 2014. "I wouldn't know the talent level, wouldn't know the organization," Johnson said. "I wouldn't be a good fit. I never say 'Never' to anything. I'm always open for new challenges. But I don't see that as being a challenge that would get my motor really revved up."
- Mike Scioscia told reporters, including Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, he has not been informed whether he will return as Angels manager. "I'm sure that at some point they're going to let us know," said Scioscia. "It's not an issue. It really isn't. It's going to be addressed at some point. I'm sure it's going to be addressed before February."
- Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com expects the Twins to sign Ron Gardenhire to a two-year contract and presumes a decision on his fate will be made either tonight or tomorrow (Twitter links).
- If not retained by the Twins, Gardenhire could be a possibility to replace Eric Wedge in Seattle, tweets FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal. In a separate tweet, Rosenthal reports the Mariners will also consider Reds pitching coach Bryan Price and former White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, who played in Seattle from 1995 to 1998.
- The Mets have issued a press release announcing an 11am (CT) news conference tomorrow featuring GM Sandy Alderson. It is expected the topic will be a new deal for manager Terry Collins. People with direct knowledge of the negotiations tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News the contract is for two years and about $2MM, with a club option for 2016.
Yankees Notes: Cano, Rivera, Pettitte
Robinson Cano absolutely wants to stay in New York, but he's following a script to create the illusion that he has no problem with bolting this winter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Of course, that doesn't mean that the second baseman is staying put if there is a far more lucrative offer out there for him. However, the free-spending Dodgers might be on the verge of being maxed out, the Cubs aren't spending yet, the Angels are still reeling from the Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton signings, and Sherman hears that it won't be the Nats or Tigers with the winning bid. For now, despite their crowded middle infield, Sherman sees the Rangers as the team to watch. Here's more out of New York..
- There's a pretty wide gap between the Yankees and Cano at the starting point of negotiations as Cano's reps want to use Alex Rodriguez's $300MM+ deal as a starting point while the Yankees see David Wright (eight-year, $138MM extension) as a good comp, writes Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated.
- Cano says that he's not ready to start talking about his free agency, writes Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. "I know a lot of things are going to come out and say, 'A source, friends of Robbie's and this,' but I know what we're doing and what we're not doing," Cano said over the weekend. "I just want to go on vacation, sit down and enjoy, not be watching the news and everything. Then you're going to go crazy."
- The retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte underscore the importance of a strong farm system, writes Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. While other clubs, like the Red Sox, have tons of young talent, Madden fears that the Yanks' system is lacking.
Free Agent Profile: Hiroki Kuroda
There are exceptions to almost every rule, and Hiroki Kuroda appears to be one of the exceptions to pitcher aging curves. At 38 years old, he's essentially having the same season he had as a 37-year-old, and the transition from the National League to the American League at age 37 barely fazed him. Kuroda will enter free agency as one of the most talented pitchers on the market.
Strengths/Pros
Kuroda is a ground-ball pitcher with plus command who misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. His career ground-ball rate is 49 percent, and he's at 46.9 percent in 2013. Only once has he turned in a ground-ball rate lower than the league average. He's adopted a sinker and two-seamer increasingly over the past few seasons as opposed to throwing a straight four-seam fastball. 
Kuroda has averaged just 2.1 walks per nine innings in his career, and that figure has actually improved with each season in the American League despite the fact that he's facing designated hitters instead of pitchers. In terms of strikeouts, his 6.7 K/9 rate is below the league average but his 9.9 percent swinging-strike rate is above the league average. Kuroda appears to be a guy who can get strikeouts when he needs them but is content to trust his defense instead of punching out every hitter he faces.
As such, he's able to work deep into games. Kuroda has averaged at least 6 1/3 innings per start in each of the past three seasons. He averages 203 innings per season and should top 200 innings once again in 2013. He also won't require the long-term risk associated with top free agent starters like Matt Garza and Masahiro Tanaka.
Weaknesses/Cons
Kuroda does appear to be an exception, but history has conditioned us to believe that eventually, the bottom will drop out for a pitcher. Kuroda has been remarkably durable and effective in the AL East in his late 30s, but he will pitch next season at 39. Teams will be wary of his age, and his fastball velocity has declined slightly in each of the past three seasons.
The second half of the season also hasn't been kind to Kuroda. After a brilliant 2.65 ERA in 118 1/3 first-half innings, he's registered a more pedestrian 3.97 ERA following the All-Star break. It's fair to point out that his second-half struggles are likely tied to a bloated second-half BABIP, but that number is in part attributable to an increase in his line-drive rate in the second half.
Kuroda is also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, which would put him in an undesirable situation. Teams showed great reluctance to part with draft picks for players on multiyear commitments last offseason. Would a team really be OK parting with a first-round pick for what will likely be a one-year deal for a 39-year-old pitcher?
Personal
Kuroda and his wife, Masayo, have two daughters: Hinatsu and Wakana. Kuroda's family currently resides in southern California. He is considered to be one of the hardest working players in Major League Baseball, in part due to the unthinkable disciplinary tactics he was subjected to in high school and college baseball in Japan (as profiled in this 2012 piece from David Waldstein of the New York Times). Kuroda's father, Kazuhiro, was a professional outfielder in Japan, playing for the franchise that is now the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.
Market
Kuroda has said that he hasn't determined whether or not he'll pitch again in 2014, and even if he does return, it could be to his native Japan. For the purposes of this post, however, I'm operating under the assumption that he does return to the Majors for his age-39 campaign.
Kuroda could simply accept a qualifying offer from the Yankees, though doing so would mean giving the team a slight discount and taking an undeserved pay cut. He could also reject a qualifying offer and re-sign with the Yankees for a slight raise — perhaps $16MM or so — as he and agent Steve Hilliard of Octagon elected to do last season.
Kuroda also weighed a return to Japan last offseason and reportedly would have been happy to pitch in southern California where his daughters live and attend school. His preference does seem to be to pitch on a coast. Because a one-year deal is likely and he's coming off such a strong season, Kuroda seems highly likely to end up on a contending team.
Expected Contract
Kuroda will be one of the best free agent starters on the market and also the oldest. Another one-year deal seems likely if he is to return to Major League Baseball. He rejected a qualifying offer following last season, and it seems unlikely that he would accept one this offseason when it would mean taking a pay cut. As such, I expect Kuroda to reject a qualifying offer and ink a one-year deal worth $16MM, earning a slight raise from his 2013 salary following another strong year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL East Notes: Johnson, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cano
As the Rays fight to join the Red Sox in the postseason, let's take a look at the rest of the AL East:
- The Orioles will tender a contract to closer Jim Johnson, reports MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. Though Johnson has accumulated more saves than anyone in baseball over the last two seasons, the 30-year-old righty went through a rough stretch that made him look like a possible non-tender, especially given the high price he'll command in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
- Baltimore GM Dan Duquette recently had what he termed an "informal meeting" with agent Scott Boras, the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly reports. Among other O's, Boras represents two key younger Birds in catcher Matt Wieters and first baseman Chris Davis, each of whom is set to hit the open market after 2015. Though Duquette indicated that nothing significant has happened on the negotiation front, he said that working to lock up the team's "core group" was a priority that the team would work on over the winter.
- There are a lot of roster decisions facing Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, writes Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. Particularly difficult, says Kennedy, are the questions whether or not to pick up first baseman/DH Adam Lind's option and what to do with catcher J.P. Arencibia in 2014.
- The Jays' rotation, of course, was one of the team's most glaring disappointments this season. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca takes a closer look at the club's options heading into the offseason.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post provides the latest on soon-to-be free agent Robinson Cano, who Sherman says seems likely — but not certain — to stay in the Bronx. “There is a lot that money can’t buy,” Cano said. “When Mo [Mariano Rivera] was a free agent, if he went somewhere else, then what happened [Thursday] could not have happened for him. But you have to understand that this is a business. The Yankees are going to do what is best for them, and I am going to do what is best for me and my family.”
East Notes: Kuroda, Lee, Mets, Blue Jays
Yankees starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda hasn't decided whether he'll pitch in 2014, Anthony Rieber of New York Newsday reports (via Twitter). He might pitch in the U.S. or in Japan, and it's not impossible he could retire, either. Kuroda ranked sixth in Tim Dierkes' most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, and even though he'll turn 39 before the 2014 season starts, his ability to rack up high-quality innings makes him a valuable commodity. If he were to retire or return to Japan, that would put a significant dent in this offseason's free agent pitching market. Here are more notes from the East divisions.
- Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee plans to retire after the 2016 season, Matt Gelb of the Inquirer reports (on Sulia). Lee's contract is guaranteed through 2015, and the Phillies have an option on his services for 2016. "I'm financially able to shut it down, so… that's how I feel right now," Lee says. "But when the time comes I might look at it differently."
- The Mets will look for a veteran catcher to serve as Travis d'Arnaud's backup next season, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York tweets. Adding a veteran would also insure the Mets against the possibility that d'Arnaud gets hurt, Rubin notes. In mid-August, d'Arnaud took over for John Buck as the Mets' starting catcher.
- The Blue Jays' disappointing season has left them well outside the playoff picture, but that doesn't mean their final series against the Rays is irrelevant, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm writes. Right now, the Jays have baseball's seventh-worst record, tied with the Phillies, Rockies and Brewers. They're currently one game worse than the Mets and two worse than the Giants. That's significant, Chisholm points out, because the top ten picks in the draft are protected, meaning that if the Jays finish with one of baseball's ten worst records, they'll be able to pursue free agents who have been extended qualifying offers, and they won't have to worry about losing their first-round pick if they sign one. For example, the Indians had a protected first-round pick last season, which allowed them to keep the No. 5 overall pick (which they used on Clint Frazier) even after they signed Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. The Indians did sacrifice their second-round and Competitive Balance Round B picks.