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Cafardo On Jeter, Ortiz, Pavano, Kemp

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Barring an incredible comeback or collapse, perennial playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Cardinals won't be playing meaningful October baseball this year. In his weekly Sunday column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines why these clubs have fallen short in 2010. He also shares a few hot stove notes….

  • One American League executive calls Derek Jeter a "two-year, $8MM-a-year player on the open market," though the exec acknowledges that the Yankees will pay more than that to keep their long-time shortstop around.
  • While David Ortiz believes that he could play first base for a National League team next season, he tells Cafardo that he'd rather stay in Boston and DH.
  • Carl Pavano's ideal offseason would see him signing a multi-year deal with the Twins. His agent, Tom O'Connell, says Pavano would "love for something to work out" with Minnesota. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Pavano's impending free agency earlier this week, he concluded that the right-hander might have trouble landing more than a one-year deal.
  • Cafardo spoke to Dodgers officials who said they'd be very surprised if the club moved Matt Kemp this winter. One team official told Cafardo, "You never know in trades, but I’d guess we’d have to be pretty overwhelmed to give up on him."
  • Fredi Gonzalez is widely considered the favorite to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but the former Marlins skipper should be a candidate for the Cubs and Mariners as well. Jim Hendry and Jack Zduriencik both like Gonzalez's managerial style.

Poll: Berkman or Hawpe?

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Owners of the two best records in baseball, both the Yankees and Rays aimed to acquire a bat for the season's stretch run as they battle for the AL East crown. The Yanks got their man at the trade deadline, acquiring Lance Berkman from the Astros for a pair of minor leaguers and cash. The Rays waited a little longer, grabbing Brad Hawpe off the scrap heap after the Rockies released him. Both players have slotted in as their team's primary designated hitter against righthanded pitching.

Since the trade, Berkman has hit .239/.314/.348 in 51 plate appearances while spending some time on the disabled list with an ankle injury. Hawpe has come to the plate just four times with Tampa since being recalled on September 1st, and has struck out all four times. Clearly, both players are capable of much better than what they've shown with their new teams so far, which brings us to today's poll question.

Who will perform better down the stretch: Berkman or Hawpe?

Click here to participate in the poll, and here to see the results.

Heyman On Fielder, Kemp, Mets, Jeter

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In his latest column for Sports Illustrated, Jon Heyman writes that the waiver trade deadline was a dud outside of the Manny Ramirez claim by the White Sox.  Even though the waiver trade deadline was somewhat quiet, this offseason should bring us plenty of interesting storylines.  Here's what Heyman has in hot stove news..

  • The Brewers are still holding out hope that they can re-sign Prince Fielder.  Meanwhile, others in baseball believe that they have virtually no chance of retaining the slugger.  Milwaukee's chances of hanging on to Fielder took a hit when the Twins re-upped Joe Mauer for $180MM.  Fielder wants at least that much but it's likely too rich for Milwaukee's blood. 
  • Heyman hears that Matt Kemp is seeking a deal with the Dodgers similar to Nick Markakis' contract.  Markakis inked a six-year, $66MM extension with the O's in January of 2009.  In fact, as a center fielder with power, Kemp sees himself as more valuable.  However, the soon-to-be 26-year-old knows that he won't get that kind of deal with the Dodgers.
  • Speaking of the Dodgers, Heyman says that it's tough to envision Ted Lilly approaching the $12MM salary he got from the Cubs.
  • Mets GM Omar Minaya has told friends that he enjoys scouting and talent evaluation.  Heyman wonders aloud if this is a precursor to Minaya has accepted that he will be assigned to a new position.  Some in the organization wonder if owner Fred Wilpon traveling to the minors with assistant GM John Ricco means that the Mets intend to elevate Ricco to the GM position.  It's possible, however, that Ricco was just assisting on a scouting mission.
  • It's hard to quantify Derek Jeter's value to the Yankees though early guesses of him earning $25MM per season in his next contract seem high at the moment.
  • Unsurprisingly, Heyman writes that Texas will non-tender Jeff Francoeur this offseason.

Odds & Ends: Manny, Garland, Fredi Gonzalez

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Links for Wednesday, as Manny Ramirez finishes a 1-for-3 White Sox debut with a hit-by-pitch…

  • ESPN's Buster Olney feels that a team interested in Manny this winter should dangle an incentive-based contract with a base salary of $1MM or less.  But keep in mind that last offseason Scott Boras got $3.3MM and $2MM guarantees for Xavier Nady and Alex Cora, respectively.
  • The Nationals and Padres were the only teams to pursue Jon Garland during the offseason, the righty told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Garland chose the Padres because he liked the ballpark and felt they were closer to competing.
  • Fredi Gonzalez tops Cubs GM Jim Hendry's managerial wish list currently, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Taiwanese news reports indicate that the Yankees determined their deal with Tzu-Wei Lin is invalid, reports the Taiwan Baseball blog.  The 16-year-old shortstop might be able to get more money from another team after he finishes high school. 
  • Mike Napoli puts his chances of being an Angel next season at 50-50, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times.

Yankees To Continue Pushing For Lilly?

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The Yankees "will continue to push to make a deal" for Dodgers lefty Ted Lilly, according to Mark Feinsand, Bill Madden, Anthony McCarron, and Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News.  Furthermore, the writers say the Yankees "believe there is a loophole that because they were awarded the claim before the first of the month, they could use Lilly on their postseason roster."

Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues can't find evidence of this loophole, nor could ESPN's Keith Law or a big league executive with which Law spoke.  Aside from postseason eligibility, is it plausible for the Yankees to acquire Lilly for the rest of the regular season?  Can the Dodgers place Lilly on waivers again, even after pulling him back the first time the Yankees won the claim?

According to The Biz of Baseball, "Once a player on major league waivers has been claimed and the waiver request revoked, any subsequent request for major league waivers during the same waiver period is irrevocable."  In other words, if the Dodgers put Lilly on waivers again they cannot pull him back if he's claimed.  If the Dodgers had purely financial motives, they could hope the Yankees or another team claims Lilly, allowing the Dodgers to save over $2MM and also keep the $2.5MM sent by the Cubs.  Such a transfer would be one of the bigger September transactions in recent memory.  Still, it's possible the Dodgers simply have no intention of moving Lilly, as ESPN's Wallace Matthews suggests.  ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Yankees' original claim of Lilly "never had any traction."

Ted Lilly Will Not Be Traded; Yankees Won Claim

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The Dodgers pulled Ted Lilly back off of waivers after the Yankees won the claim on the left-hander, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter links). This means virtually every team in baseball let Lilly through (the Rays being the lone possible exception). When the Dodgers placed Lilly on waivers last week, they did not seem inclined to trade him, so their decision is not a surprise.

Earlier in the month, the Yankees maintained that they weren't interested in adding starting pitching. Clearly, something changed this week. Andy Pettitte has been progressing slowly and Dustin Moseley has not fared well in his last four starts, so perhaps the Yankees decided it was time to be aggressive.

Lilly's new teammate, Hiroki Kuroda, will not be traded either. Both pitchers hit free agency this winter. 

Quiet Deadline Day Expected?

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Eleven hours remain until tonight's waiver trade deadline.  A year ago today, Jim Thome, Jose Contreras, Ronnie Belliard, and Jon Garland were dealt.  But two years ago it was pretty much just David Eckstein, and three years ago we only had deals for Steve Trachsel and Russell Branyan.  So SI's Jon Heyman may be right in passing along the prediction from baseball executives that only "a couple of bullpen and bench pieces" will be moved today.  More from Heyman:

Dodgers To Send Ramirez To White Sox

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SUNDAY, 9:03pm: The Dodgers confirmed that Ramirez will be shipped to the White Sox, tweets Peter Gammons of the MLB Network.

8:33pm: Ramirez has indicated that he will waive his no-trade clause even if he isn't compensated, sources tell Hernandez (via Twitter).

8:04pm: The Dodgers are trying to decide whether to take third base prospect Jon Gilmore and assume part of Ramirez's salary or just take the cash, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  The White Sox acquired the former first-round pick from the Braves as part of a package for Javier Vazquez in December of 2008.

7:30pm: There's still a possibility that a swap could be worked out in which the Dodgers get a player and the White Sox don't have to foot the entire $4.3MM bill for Ramirez, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN (via Twitter).  Meanwhile, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com writes that there will be no players coming back to Los Angeles.

7:08pm: Details of the transaction are still being worked out but Ramirez will be a member of the White Sox on Monday one way or another, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).

7:02pm: The White Sox will receive Ramirez tomorrow, a source tells Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.  Because the White Sox will be getting Ramirez on a waiver claim, they will be on the hook for the remainder of his salary, Hernandez tweets.

1:31pm: USA Today's Bob Nightengale opines (via Twitter) that since the Dodgers aren't playing Manny, they're likely set on trading him. According to Nightengale, Manny is telling friends that he can't wait to join the White Sox.

Meanwhile, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times quotes Joe Torre as saying that he's not benching Manny to get him to waive his no-trade clause, he's just trying to win games (Twitter link). From what we've heard, it doesn't sound like Manny would need the extra encouragement anyway.

SATURDAY, 8:34pm: The Dodgers have yet to ask Manny to waive his no-trade clause, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).

7:20pm: ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweets that the Dodgers don't intend to give Manny up for nothing. If they part with Manny, the Dodgers want a Sox prospect in return to make it "worth their while."

FRIDAY, 7:37pm: The White Sox "swear" they have yet to have trade talks with the Dodgers about Manny, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

1:26pm: Multiple teams claimed Manny Ramirez on waivers, but the White Sox won the claim, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (on Twitter). Stark reports strong indications that the Rays claimed Manny and the Rangers also claimed the 38-year-old, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.

The White Sox and Dodgers, who have already discussed possible trades, have until Tuesday to work out a deal. Ramirez has a no-trade clause, which will give him the power to veto a deal if the Dodgers plan to make one. However, he has told friends that he would approve a trade to the White Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

The Dodgers, who are currently 5.0 games out of the Wild Card race, can now hold onto Ramirez, hand him over to the White Sox or work out a trade. They must determine by Tuesday afternoon whether they can contend for the playoffs.

National League teams had waiver priority on Ramirez, but no NL team made a claim. The claim seems to indicate that the White Sox are willing to take on $4.1MM in salary, but the Dodgers and White Sox talked about potential deals earlier in the week, so the teams may have agreed on a trade that would send Ramirez to Chicago along with salary relief. About $3.1MM of Ramirez's remaining salary is deferred.

Jon Heyman of SI.com, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports and Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times also contributed to the story.

Odds & Ends: Johnson, Figgins, Pineda, Ross

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Saturday night links, as Joey Votto, Adam Dunn, and Paul Konerko belt their 32nd home runs…

Odds & Ends: Dodgers, Overbay, Hawpe, Lilly, Marlins

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Links for Friday…

  • Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times says (via Twitter) that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti hasn't asked anyone to waive their no-trade clause, which would include Manny Ramirez.
  • Lyle Overbay was pulled from tonight's game in the 6th inning, and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com says there has been trade interest in the Jays' first baseman recently. However, Overbay left for precautionary reasons as he's been feeling under the weather according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (Twitter links).
  • Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports that Brad Hawpe chose the Rays over the Red Sox was because there was "a perceived better fit in terms of guaranteed playing time."
  • The Dodgers placed Ted Lilly on waivers today, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reported yesterday that the Dodgers aren't inclined to trade Lilly.
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan reports that Marlins president David Samsom directed millions of dollars to owner Jeffrey Loria. Samson has said publicly that he did no such thing, but Passan contests that "what Samson said was so provably false that it was akin to a 3-year-old trying to hide his peas under a pile of mashed potatoes."
  • Stephen Strasburg will probably need Tommy John surgery, according to the Nationals.
  • Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News says the idea of Joe Girardi leaving the Yankees for the Cubs this offseason is "pure insanity," since the Yankees will always provide Girardi with the chance to win.
  • However, Cubs sources confirmed to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that the Cubs will pursue Girardi to manage, possibly as the leading candidate, if he is available.
  • Padres GM Jed Hoyer told MLB.com's Corey Brock that he and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein joked about the inevitable Adrian Gonzalez rumors last winter. As Brock shows, those rumors are a thing of the past for the first place Padres.
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