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Padres Sign Nick Pivetta

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Feb. 17: Pivetta passed his physical and has reported to Padres camp. The team has formally announced his four-year contract.

Feb. 12: The Padres are reportedly in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year, $55MM deal. The CAA client receives a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s guaranteed $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM salaries over the following three seasons and can opt out after the contract after the second and third years. While the salary structure helps the Padres navigate short-term payroll constraints, the $13.75MM average annual value counts evenly against the team’s luxury tax calculation. The deal is pending a physical and has not been officially announced by the Padres, who have two openings on their 40-man roster.

Pivetta, who’ll celebrate his 32rd birthday on Friday, was the best unsigned starting pitcher. He had declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the beginning of the offseason. That was a bit of a surprising decision that presumably played a role in holding up his market into Spring Training. He finds a multi-year deal with a much greater overall guarantee than he would have received had he accepted the QO, though he’s taking a notable pay cut for the upcoming season in the process.

The 6’5″ righty debuted with the Phillies in 2017. He struggled for most of his four-year tenure in Philadelphia. A 2020 deadline trade sending him to Boston turned his career around. Pivetta has been a mid-rotation workhorse over the last four years. He ranks 23rd in MLB with 623 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He owns a cumulative 4.33 earned run average and has allowed an ERA between 4.04 and 4.56 in each season.

Pivetta was a fixture in Alex Cora’s rotation over his first two seasons in Boston. He remained in that role early in the ’23 campaign, but the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in the middle of May. Pivetta was sitting on a 6.30 ERA over his first eight starts of the season. He had a fantastic turnaround in a long relief capacity. Pivetta allowed 1.98 earned runs per nine with an exceptional 36.9% strikeout rate over his first 17 relief appearances. Boston gradually stretched him back out to a rotation workload as the season progressed, putting him back in the starting five entering last season.

A flexor strain in his elbow sent him to the injured list in early April. That was remarkably the first non-virus IL stint of his nearly seven-year MLB career. Pivetta returned no worse for wear a month later and stayed heathy from May onwards. He wound up taking the ball 27 times and worked to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings.

Pivetta’s run prevention numbers are those of a league average starter. That alone would be a significant boost to a San Diego rotation that needs reliable back-end innings. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk profile has been more intriguing than the bottom line results. He punched out 28.9% of opposing hitters against a modest 6.1% walk rate last season. That was the third season of the past four years in which he has posted a well above-average strikeout rate.

However, the swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by longstanding issues keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta has allowed a higher than average home run rate in every season of his MLB career. He gives up a lot of hard contact. While Statcast’s park factors grade Fenway Park as one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues overall, it has played around neutral for home runs over the past few seasons. Petco Park has been around average for home runs as well, though it broadly plays more favorably for pitchers.

Pivetta slots fourth on Mike Shildt’s rotation depth chart for the moment. He’s behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in what had been a very top-heavy rotation. It’s a lot more balanced now, as Pivetta can provide innings that San Diego lost when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. That’d leave one spot up for grabs among the likes of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and potential reliever conversion candidates Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.

That’d only be the case if there are no other moves before Opening Day. The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions. It’s the second straight winter in which the front office has had limited financial leeway. They’ve inked a trio of cheap one-year deals to plug holes at catcher and left field. They signed Elias Díaz for $3.5MM to start behind the plate while bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a left field platoon at a combined $2MM cost.

Pivetta won’t make much more than that in year one. The bigger ramifications are from a luxury tax perspective. The Padres snuck below the tax line in 2024. They’ve seemingly preferred to do so again this offseason. The Padres had projected narrowly above this year’s $241MM base threshold. Pivetta pushes them close to the second tax tier. RosterResource calculates their tax number around $258MM. The actual fees are relatively small. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’ll pay a $2.75MM tax on the Pivetta deal and are currently lined up for about $3.4MM in taxes overall.

While ownership may simply be willing to live with that relatively small tax bill, the front office could consider payroll-clearing trades in the coming weeks. Cease, who has a $13.75MM tax number himself for his final arbitration season, has been in trade rumors all offseason. King ($7.75MM) has been the subject of lesser trade chatter, while Robert Suarez and Luis Arraez have also been speculated about. Trading Cease or King would again raise questions about the rotation’s stability, though any such deal would almost certainly include at least one affordable MLB rotation piece in the return package.

The money isn’t the only cost for San Diego. They’ll surrender their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their 2026 bonus pool for international amateurs, because Pivetta had declined the qualifying offer. The Red Sox get a compensation pick in the ’25 draft, which will land 77th overall.

Pivetta winds up being the only free agent starter of this offseason to sign a four-year deal. Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino each signed for three years but pulled higher annual values. All but Wacha landed a larger overall guarantee. Severino and Manaea had also declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have received one had he not re-signed with Kansas City just before QO decisions were due. Pivetta will collect $23MM over the next two seasons. His opt-out decisions will come when there are two years at $32MM and (if he doesn’t take the first out) one year at $18MM remaining.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first to report the signing and the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Pirates Sign Tommy Pham

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TODAY: The Pirates officially announced Pham’s deal, and moved right-hander Dauri Moreta to the 60-day injured list in the corresponding move.  Moreta underwent a UCL surgery in March 2024 and will miss at least the first two months of the season rehabbing.

FEBRUARY 6: The Pirates and outfielder Tommy Pham are in agreement on a one-year, $4MM contract, per Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com adds, slightly more specifically, that Pham is guaranteed $4.025MM. The Vayner client can earn an additional $250K via incentives. Pittsburgh has a full 40-man roster already and will need to make a corresponding transaction to accommodate their latest signing.

Pham, 37 next month, split the 2024 season between the White Sox, Royals and Cardinals (his second stint with the team that originally drafted him). He’s suited up for nine teams in his 11-year big league career, including seven teams in the past three years alone, as he’s settled into a journeyman role player signing a series of affordable one-year deals that frequently render him a trade chip. The Pirates make an even ten teams as Pham heads into his 12th big league season.

Pham hit well for the White Sox last season, slashing .266/.330/.380 in 297 plate appearances before heading to the Cards as part of the three-team Tommy Edman/Erick Fedde/Michael Kopech swap between the Sox, Cardinals and Dodgers. His return to St. Louis sparked an immediate feel-good moment, as Pham belted a pinch-hit grand slam in his first plate appearance wearing Cardinal red since 2018. He followed that up with three multi-hit performances in his next four games and went on to pop his second Cardinals homer just a few days later. Through eight games back with his original club, he posted a Herculean .379/.400/.759 slash and looked to be just the jolt the lineup had needed.

The good vibes didn’t last, however. Pham fell into a deep slump that saw him go 3-for-39 as the Cardinals faded from contention. He was placed on waivers in late August and claimed by the Royals, who plugged Pham in frequently as they pushed toward their eventual postseason berth. He didn’t hit well in Kansas City overall but had a few big hits, including a three-run homer against the division-leading Guardians that proved to be a game winner. Overall, he finished out the season at .248/.305/.368 in 478 plate appearances.

Over the past four seasons, Pham has produced offense almost exactly in line with the league average. He’s a .242/.322/.391 hitter (98 wRC+) with 57 home runs, 94 doubles, nine triples, 51 steals, a 10.1% walk rate and a 23.7% strikeout rate in that stretch. He’s been a bit better against lefties (.238/.328/.413) than righties (.243/.319/.383) but has generally held his own in the batter’s box regardless of opponents’ handedness. He did see a notable dip in batted-ball quality (albeit with still-strong marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate) as well as a notable dip in walk rate (down to 7.3%).

Results-wise, Pham’s 2024 output doesn’t look all that different from former Pirate Connor Joe, whom the Bucs non-tendered earlier this winter. He’d been projected for a $3.2MM salary. Like Pham, Joe is a righty-hitting corner bat who’s provided almost exactly average offense in recent years. He’s slashed .238/.330/.396 in 888 plate appearances from 2023-24. Pham provides more speed and a more natural outfield glove (Joe split his time between first base and the outfield corners.) Pham does have far better quality of contact, so perhaps that made the Pirates a bit more bullish on his outlook than the comparably priced Joe, but it’s nonetheless quite arguable that this is a lateral move.

With the Bucs, Pham can be expected to play frequently in a corner, perhaps forming a de facto platoon with lefty-hitting Joshua Palacios or Jack Suwinski. Both struggled against lefties in 2024, with Suwinski also struggling so much versus righties that he was optioned to Triple-A at multiple points. Given that neither is established as a consistent big league presence, it’s possible that Pham simply emerges as a regular alongside Bryan Reynolds and center fielder Oneil Cruz.

The Pham signing isn’t especially exciting but is emblematic of the Pirates’ free agent approach under owner Bob Nutting, who is staunchly against taking virtually any risk on the open market. The Pirates have never given a free agent more than Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM deal more than a decade ago. Russell Martin’s two-year, $17MM pact (also more than a decade ago) is the largest free agent position-player signing the team has issued.

Under general manager Ben Cherington’s watch, the Pirates have never signed a free agent to a multi-year deal. Aroldis Chapman’s $10.75MM pact last winter is both the largest signing for Cherington and the lone time Nutting has authorize an eight-figure free agent salary in the current front office’s tenure. The Bucs have spent more on extensions for Bryan Reynolds (seven years, $100MM in new money) and Mitch Keller (four years, $71.6MM in new money) but there has been no appetite for any meaningful risk when it comes to open-market spending.

On paper anyhow, the Pirates looked well positioned to dip into a solid crop of free agent first basemen and/or corner outfield bats as they looked to beef up a lineup that generally lacked punch in 2024. They’ve instead brought in a new first baseman via trade (Spencer Horwitz) and signed veteran role players Pham, Adam Frazier and Andrew McCutchen, with short-term deals to match on the pitching side (Tim Mayza, Caleb Ferguson). The Pirates’ hope seems to be that a young rotation anchored by Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Keller can make further strides in 2024, with rebounds and/or breakouts from Horwitz, Cruz, Suwinski, Nick Gonzales and other young bats (Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Billy Cook) can spur a more productive offense.

That’s a big bet to make, when the first full season of Skenes/Jones dovetails with the Cardinals taking a step back and the Brewers seemingly unable to add to their payroll whatsoever this winter. The Pham signing pushes Pittsburgh’s payroll to $83MM, per RosterResource, a few million shy of last year’s $87MM mark. The Pirates haven’t run a $90MM payroll since 2017.

Guardians Sign Jakob Junis

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TODAY: The Guardians officially announced Junis’s signing today. Hentges was moved to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move.

February 13: The Guardians and Jakob Junis are in agreement on a one-year, $4.5MM deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The signing is pending a physical for the Wasserman client. Cleveland’s 40-man roster is at capacity, though they can create a spot by placing any of Shane Bieber, David Fry or Sam Hentges on the 60-day injured list.

Junis adds versatility to Stephen Vogt’s pitching staff. The 32-year-old righty has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen throughout his career. He has pitched mostly in multi-inning relief roles over the last two seasons. That has suited him well, as Junis has turned in solid numbers in consecutive years. He pitched to a 3.87 earned run average with a career-best 26.2% strikeout rate across 80 innings for the Giants two seasons ago.

The uptick in strikeouts earned Junis a $7MM guarantee from the Brewers last offseason. Milwaukee intended to give him a rotation opportunity, but he suffered a shoulder impingement during his first start of the season. A scary fluke injury delayed his return from the injured list. A few weeks after the shoulder injury, Junis was struck in the neck by a fly ball while he was jogging in the outfield during batting practice. That necessitated a brief hospitalization.

Fortunately, Junis escaped the incident with no long-term effects. It set him back as he rehabbed the shoulder, though, leading Milwaukee to transfer him to the 60-day IL. The Brewers used him out of the bullpen when he returned towards the end of June. They packaged him alongside outfielder Joey Wiemer to the Reds to land Frankie Montas in a deadline deal.

The Reds initially kept Junis in the bullpen themselves. They stretched him back out as a starter for the season’s final month. While the Reds were essentially out of contention by that point, Junis performed well as a starter. He allowed two or fewer runs in each of his final six appearances (five starts and one long relief outing). He built back to 5-6 inning stints to close the year.

Though the injuries limited him to 67 innings, Junis turned in a career-low 2.69 ERA between the two NL Central clubs. He didn’t sustain his ’23 uptick in whiffs, as his strikeout rate dropped to a 20.2% clip that is more in line with his overall track record. The eight-year MLB veteran has excellent command though. He kept his walks to a career-low 3.2% rate last season and has issued free passes to fewer than 6% of opposing hitters throughout his career.

Junis sits in the 91-92 MPH range with his sinker and four-seam fastball. He leans most heavily on a low-80s slider. That has given him some trouble with left-handed batters in his career, but he was effective against hitters of either handedness last season. He held lefties to a .218/.238/.406 line while stifling right-handed batters to a .193/.236/.329 slash. That could give Vogt the confidence to plug him into a season-opening rotation role.

For the second straight year, the rotation is Cleveland’s biggest question. Tanner Bibee is the staff ace, at least until Bieber returns from his Tommy John rehab. He’ll likely be followed by some combination of Ben Lively, Gavin Williams and trade pickup Luis Ortiz. Junis could compete with Triston McKenzie, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen for the fifth starter role. McKenzie is out of options and will likely be on the MLB team in some capacity. Each of Allen, Cantillo and Cecconi have an option remaining and can head to Triple-A Columbus if they don’t earn an Opening Day rotation spot.

The signing pushes Cleveland’s projected payroll to roughly $100MM, according to RosterResource. That’s right in line with last year’s $98MM season-opening payroll and a few million dollars below where they ended the ’24 campaign. They could still have a few million dollars for a depth acquisition or two after winning the division and earning an ALCS berth.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Angels Sign Kenley Jansen

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TODAY: Jansen’s deal with the Angels is now official, as is the club’s deal with Yoan Moncada. Anthony Rendon and Robert Stephenson were transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room on the 40-man roster.

FEBRUARY 11: The Angels are reportedly in agreement with Kenley Jansen on a one-year, $10MM contract. The Wasserman client will step into the closer’s role and give manager Ron Washington an established option in the ninth inning.

The 37-year-old Jansen is coming off yet another fine season of closing, having finished 38 games and tallied 27 saves for the 2024 Red Sox. He notched a 3.29 earned run average, fanned 28.4% of his opponents and posted a 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 frames during the second of his two years in Boston.

Those 27 saves pushed him up to 447 in his career, placing him fourth all-time behind Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith. Jansen isn’t going to run down Rivera (652) and Hoffman (601), but he’s 31 saves behind Smith’s 478 — a number that seems plenty attainable, perhaps even this year. Craig Kimbrel and his 440 saves aren’t far behind, but after last season’s struggles, it’s an open question whether Kimbrel will find his way back to regular closing work this year. Jansen, meanwhile, seems like a lock to serve as the Angels’ primary closer. He reportedly drew interest from other clubs with set ninth-inning options, including the Mets, but preferred to sign in a spot that afforded him more save opportunities.

Jansen isn’t the near-automatic ninth-inning powerhouse he was earlier in his career with the Dodgers, but he’s still sporting a 3.42 ERA over the past three seasons and has never turned in a single-season ERA worse than the 3.71 he logged during 2019’s juiced-ball campaign.

The 92.2 mph Jansen averaged on his cutter last year is right in line with his average mark from 2018-23, when he posted a combined 3.45 ERA and fanned just over 30% of his opponents. He allowed a career-high level of contact within the strike zone, but his 82.6% rate in that regard was still nearly three percentage points better than average — and Jansen still induced whiffs on pitches off the plate at a strong rate.

Even though Jansen isn’t an elite reliever anymore, he’s a very good one who should help to deepen a Halos bullpen that lacked experience. Lefties Brock Burke, Jose Quijada and Jose Suarez all have four-plus years of MLB service. No other Angels reliever had even two years of service, prior to today’s agreement with Jansen.

Flamethrowing righty Ben Joyce, MLB’s hardest-throwing pitcher, had been slated for closing duties with the Angels. He’ll now drop down to a setup role that allows him to gain some more experience while giving Washington the flexibility to use his most dynamic arm in the highest-leverage situations a game presents (without feeling tempted to “save” him for the ninth inning). Joyce, a 2022 third-rounder, averaged a comical 102.1 mph on his four-seamer last year and has run the pitch up to 105 mph at times.

As a rookie in 2023, Joyce walked nearly 19% of his opponents in a small sample of 10 innings. He made significant gains in 2024, pitching 34 2/3 big league innings with a 2.08 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. Joyce piled up grounders at a massive 58.9% clip and tallied four saves and eight holds. His 13.7% swinging-strike rate and unmatched velocity suggest there are more strikeouts in the tank as he continues to develop.

Jansen, Joyce and that previously mentioned trio of lefties will now anchor the Angel bullpen. Ryan Zeferjahn put himself in good position to win a spot this spring with a terrific 17-inning debut in 2024, but he’ll need to solidify that job during camp.

There’s a good chance the Angels will continue shopping in the relief market. They’ve reportedly been on the hunt for multiple bullpen arms, so they still feel there’s at least one spot that could yet be filled. It’s unlikely that any subsequent additions will be on the same eight-figure scale as Jansen, unless the Angels opt to double down on high-end, late-30s relievers and make a push for David Robertson. Regardless, general manager Perry Minasian should have the budget available to pursue just about any bullpen help he likes.

As things stand, the Angels project for a payroll just north of $202MM with roughly $220MM of luxury obligations, per RosterResource. That leaves them more than $10MM shy of the franchise record for Opening Day cash payroll and about $21MM shy of the $241MM luxury tax threshold.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Angels were signing Jansen. The Post’s Joel Sherman had the one-year, $10MM guarantee.

Angels Sign Yoan Moncada

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TODAY: Moncada’s deal with the Angels is now official, as is the club’s deal with Kenley Jansen. Anthony Rendon and Robert Stephenson were transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room on the 40-man roster.

FEBRUARY 11: The Angels are reportedly in agreement with third baseman Yoán Moncada on a one-year, $5MM deal. The signing is pending a physical for the Quality Control Sports client. The Angels will need to create a 40-man roster spot once it is finalized.

Moncada, 30 in May, is looking for a rebound after a disappointing end to his eight seasons with the White Sox. The former top prospect had an up-and-down tenure in Chicago. He earned down-ballot MVP support during his best year, a 2019 season in which he hit .315/.367/.548 with a career-high 25 home runs. The Sox signed Moncada to a $70MM extension the following spring, believing he’d cemented himself as a core piece coming out of their rebuild.

That is not how things have played out. Moncada slumped to a .225/.320/.385 showing in 2020. That looked like a short-season aberration the following year, as he posted a strong .263/.375/.412 slash across 144 games. Moncada’s bat hit another sharp decline thereafter. He combined for a .234/.288/.386 line in nearly 800 plate appearances over the next two seasons. His final year in Chicago was tanked by injury. Moncada suffered a significant left adductor (groin) strain two weeks into the year. He was immediately ruled out for 3-6 months. Moncada didn’t return to the active roster until the middle of September.

By that point, the White Sox were playing out the string on the worst season in modern history. It was a foregone conclusion that they’d buy Moncada out for $5MM instead of a $25MM club option. The Sox had little reason to put him back in the lineup. He only made one appearance as a pinch-runner in the final two weeks. His season ended with 12 games and 45 plate appearances.

Moncada is now three years removed from his last strong season. At his best, he has shown above-average power and speed with a patient offensive approach. Moncada took walks at an excellent 13.6% clip back in 2021. He takes a lot of called strikes as well, so he has punched out in 29.2% of his career plate appearances. He’s a .254/.331/.424 hitter in more than 3100 major league plate appearances.

After playing second base during his first two seasons, Moncada kicked to third base in 2019. He hasn’t played anywhere other than the hot corner over the past six years. That’ll very likely be his home with the Halos. General manager Perry Minasian said at the beginning of the offseason that the Angels were not committed to giving that job back to Anthony Rendon. He’s likely headed to the bench as he enters the sixth season of his seven-year free agent deal. Luis Rengifo can take the majority of the playing time at second base, while the Halos acquired Jorge Soler to serve as their primary designated hitter.

This is the Angels’ first move of consequence in months. They were the league’s most active team in the offseason’s first few weeks. They pulled off the Soler trade while signing Kyle Hendricks, Travis d’Arnaud and Yusei Kikuchi before Thanksgiving. They had not made a major league free agent pickup since finalizing the Kikuchi deal. They’ve added a few veteran infielders on minor league contracts, including Moncada’s longtime Sox teammate Tim Anderson. With Zach Neto questionable for Opening Day following postseason shoulder surgery, Anderson could compete with free agent signee Kevin Newman for the season-opening shortstop job. The Angels may have Moncada and Anderson on the left side of their infield for at least a few weeks.

Moncada was also tied to the Blue Jays, Mariners and Cubs at points this offseason. Francys Romero reports that the Cubs made a one-year offer worth around $3MM. Moncada declined and came out $2MM ahead with the Angels. (Chicago has signed Jon Berti to serve as a multi-positional infielder and is likely to turn third base over to top prospect Matt Shaw.) This pushes the Angels payroll to approximately $193MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re at $210MM in luxury tax commitments, a little more than $30MM below the lowest threshold.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the $5MM agreement. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Sign Ty France

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TODAY: The Twins officially announced France’s deal.

FEBRUARY 11: The Twins are in agreement with infielder Ty France on a one-year contract, pending a physical. It’s a non-guaranteed major league deal that places the Equity Baseball client on the 40-man roster and reportedly pays him at a $1MM rate if he breaks camp with the team. France will fill the roster spot that was recently vacated when Minnesota placed lefty Brent Headrick on waivers and lost him to the Yankees.

France, 30, was an All-Star with the Mariners in 2022 but has seen his production dip over the past two seasons. From 2020-22, the former Padres farmhand mashed at a .285/.355/.443 clip despite playing his home games in perhaps the most pitcher-friendly setting in MLB: Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Weighting for that disadvantage, wRC+ pegged him at 29% better than average with the bat.

The 2023 season brought about a downturn, but France was still slightly better than average in the box, batting .250/.337/.366. He declined further in 2024, however, hitting just .234/.305/.365. That came despite a midsummer DFA from the Mariners and subsequent landing with the Reds, who play in one of MLB’s top hitters’ parks. It was only 195 plate appearances, but the change in venue didn’t bring about a return to form for France, who’ll now look to bounce back with the Twins.

At his best, France has shown 20-homer pop with plenty of doubles and good bat-to-ball skills. Last year’s decline was in part due to a 21.6% strikeout rate, but from 2021-23, France kept that number down to 16.4%. He doesn’t walk much (career 6.5%), but his contact skills and line-drive approach have typically propped up his batting average and led to solid on-base marks.

Defensively, France has experience at first base, second base and third base, though he’s not a strong option at any of the three spots. From 2021-22, he looked to be improving considerably at first base, drawing positive marks from Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average alike. Those grades slipped in 2023, and defensive metrics panned him as one of the worst defenders in the sport this past season.

Notably, France did miss time with a fractured heel; it stands to reason that could’ve hobbled him at the time of the injury in June and lingered throughout the season. At the time of the injury, France was hitting .251/.329/.403 (117 wRC+). His strikeout rate was up, but the results were still strong overall. Upon reinstatement from the IL just 11 days later, France fell into a deep swoon and batted .220/.285/.336 in a sample of 298 plate appearances.

Adding some right-handed depth to the lineup has been a priority for the Twins this winter. They recently brought in Harrison Bader to both back up Byron Buxton in center field and to serve as a platoon option with lefty-swinging corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. France adds a second right-handed bat, one who’ll either supplant Jose Miranda as the favorite for reps at first base or perhaps just slot into a multi-player rotation between the infield corners and designated hitter.

Carlos Correa will be the Twins’ primary shortstop, but the rest of the infield is fluid. Royce Lewis is in line for regular time at third base, but the Twins have at least worked him out at second base as well. That’s in part because top prospect Brooks Lee — a natural shortstop — is seen as a better defender than Lewis at the hot corner. The presence of Lewis and Lee has pushed Miranda from third base to first base. The Twins also have second baseman/first baseman Edouard Julien in the mix, though the former top-100 prospect is looking to rebound from a down year at the plate in 2024. Utilityman Willi Castro can play virtually any spot on the diamond. The additions of France and Bader will likely push former top prospect Austin Martin from a bench role to a regular job in Triple-A.

Adding France into the mix only gives the Twins more options and safeguards against potential injury. Speculatively, that depth could also come into play in preparation for a late-offseason trade, though president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said recently that after focusing heavily on the trade market throughout the winter, the Twins saw more paths to upgrade in free agency. That didn’t appear to be in the cards for much of the winter, as the Twins have been up against a serious payroll crunch with the team up for sale, but it seems ownership recently gave the green light to upping the 2025 budget on a series of short-term deals. The Twins have added France, Bader ($6.25MM) and Danny Coulombe ($3MM) in the past week alone.

Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was first on the signing.

Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman To Three-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Bregman’s deal.  To create roster space, Patrick Sandoval was moved to the 60-day injured list.  Sandoval underwent an internal brace procedure on his left UCL last June, so he was already expected to be out of action until the second half of the 2025 season.  Speier also provided some added details on the contract’s structure, writing that $20MM will be deferred in each of the three seasons.  Bregman will begin receiving these deferred payments in 10 years’ time.

Feb. 13: The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman’s three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the AAV will be calculated as $31.7MM for CBT purposes. Speier adds that there’s a $5MM signing bonus, followed by a $35MM salary in 2025, then $40MM salaries in the final two seasons.

Feb. 12: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with Alex Bregman on a three-year, $120MM deal. The Boras Corporation client receives massive $40MM salaries in each season, though an unreported amount of that money is deferred. Bregman can opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has yet to officially announce the signing.

Boston gets the best remaining free agent by offering a massive annual sum. Bregman reportedly had a standing six-year offer valued at $156MM from the Astros for most of the offseason. The Tigers reportedly put forth a six-year, $171.5MM proposal, while the Cubs offered a $120MM guarantee over a four-year term. As of last month, Bregman remained committed to a long-term deal. The Sox’s willingness to offer one of the biggest AAVs in league history changed the calculus.

It marks the end of an illustrious tenure in Houston. The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman was in the majors within a year of coming out of LSU. He immediately locked down third base. He hit .284/.352/.475 over his first full big league campaign, helping the Astros to their first World Series title in 2017. He was one of the top handful of players in baseball over the next two seasons. Bregman secured consecutive top five finishes in AL MVP balloting while combining for a .291/.409/.561 slash with more walks than strikeouts between 2018-19.

Bregman, 31 in March, successively hit 31 and 41 home runs over that stretch. His power production has ticked down since the ’19 campaign, which was the most homer-heavy season in league history. Bregman has hit between 23 and 26 homers in each of the past three seasons. He’d continued to post excellent on-base numbers up through 2023, though his OBP dropped last year as his walks plummeted.

The two-time All-Star hit .260/.315/.453 across 634 trips to the plate in 2024. He had by far his lowest on-base percentage since his half-season as a rookie nearly a decade ago. That was almost entirely because of a drop in free passes. Bregman walked in 6.9% of his plate appearances, nearly halving his typical 12-13% rates. He remained incredibly difficult to punch out (13.6% strikeout rate) and narrowly established a new career high with a 40.1% hard contact percentage.

Bregman started the season very slowly. He hit .216/.283/.294 with only one home run through the end of April. While his power started to rebound in May, he reached base at a meager .276 clip that month. He entered June with a .219/.280/.372 slash line that was beginning to raise questions about his earning power. He put those to rest with a fantastic finish to the season. Bregman hit .284/.337/.500 with 20 doubles and 19 home runs across his final 398 plate appearances. While the walks remained down, he managed much better batted ball results in the second half.

Over eight-plus seasons with the Astros, Bregman hit .272/.366/.483 with 191 home runs. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his Houston tenure around 40 wins above replacement. He won a Silver Slugger and was MVP runner-up in 2019 and won his first career Gold Glove last season. He has been an instrumental piece of Houston’s sustained postseason success and World Series wins in 2017 and ’23. His swing is perfectly suited for the short left field at Houston’s home park. Bregman certainly hasn’t been a product of the Crawford Boxes, though. He has been essentially the same hitter on the road (.275/.362/.489) and at home (.270/.369/.476).

Bregman will have a similar home setup with the Green Monster at Fenway. He’ll reunite with Sox manager Alex Cora, who was Houston’s bench coach in 2017. While the Sox’s front office had trepidation about adding another long-term infield commitment alongside Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, they were willing to pay handsomely in the short term.

Boston had roughly $210MM in luxury tax commitments going into this evening, as calculated by RosterResource. A $40MM average annual value for Bregman would push that close to $250MM. The actual AAV won’t be quite so high, as the deferrals will drop the net present value to an extent. It’s likely that the Sox will still end up beyond the $241MM luxury tax threshold. They didn’t pay the CBT last season, so they’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $241MM and $261MM. Even a true $40MM AAV for Bregman would only come with a $1.8MM tax hit for the Sox.

It’s the culmination of an exciting offseason for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff. The Sox opened the winter looking to add upside in their rotation. They eschewed long-term pitching investments, instead acquiring Garrett Crochet for four prospects while bringing in Walker Buehler on a one-year, $21.05MM deal. Boston signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year contract midway through his rehab from Tommy John surgery and made a pair of one-year pickups in the bullpen (Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson).

Adding a right-handed bat was the one offseason goal that the Sox had not accomplished. While an outfielder may have been a cleaner roster fit, Bregman’s willingness to move off his longtime position makes this workable. The Sox intend to play him at second base, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That made him a better fit than Nolan Arenado, who has been connected to the Sox in trade rumors for much of the winter.

Devers has been vocal about preferring to stick at third base. Bregman is a superior defender at the hot corner, but he should be athletic enough to move to the keystone for at least one season. He’d likely have spent most of his career in the middle infield had he not broken in with a team that had a Jose Altuve/Carlos Correa pairing.

That blocks the path to playing time for top prospect Kristian Campbell in the short term. The 22-year-old had a monster minor league season (.330/.439/.558 between three levels) to put himself in consideration for the second base job. Campbell seems likelier to begin the year in Triple-A Worcester now. He has played both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots in the minors, though, so the Sox should be able to find playing time for him somewhere as injuries arise throughout the year.

Campbell’s presence is probably a big reason the Red Sox kept this to a short-term commitment. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reports that Boston wasn’t interested in going past three guaranteed years. The tradeoff involves one of the largest per-year commitments in MLB history. The pre-deferral $40MM AAV is tied for the sixth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest of this winter behind Juan Soto’s $51MM AAV and ties the Aaron Judge deal for third in history among position players (trailing Shohei Ohtani and Soto).

Bregman was the final unsigned free agent who had declined a qualifying offer. Boston surrenders their second-round pick (54th overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their international signing bonus pool in 2026. They’re getting a compensatory pick about 20 spots later with Nick Pivetta signing with San Diego, so the draft capital comes out relatively close to a wash. As luxury tax payors, the Astros get the lowest compensation pick for Bregman’s departure — a selection after the fourth round, which lands around 137th overall.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic first reported that Bregman was signing with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the presence of deferrals. Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2 had the even salary structure. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Mozeliak: Nolan Arenado Likely To Be With Cardinals On Opening Day

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to members of the media today, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, saying that trade candidate Nolan Arenado is likely staying put. “I think the mindset right now is he’s likely going to be a part of our club at this point,” Mozeliak said. “I definitely feel like it’s a better chance than not” that he is the club’s Opening Day third baseman.

Given the events of recent weeks, that’s not terribly surprising. It was reported about a month ago that the club’s efforts to move Arenado had largely stalled, with the Red Sox being the best remaining landing spot, but even that fit had some problems.

The Sox are making a big investment in their infield, agreeing to a deal last night with Alex Bregman. He’s reportedly going to play second base, so he doesn’t on his own block Arenado from playing third at Fenway. However, the fit was already awkward with Rafael Devers at third. Moving Devers to first and then trading Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida were scenarios that were bandied about this winter but they always seemed somewhat of a difficult tightrope to walk.

Those scenarios are technically still possible to imagine in a vacuum but the larger team context makes it harder to see. Bregman’s deal is reportedly for $120MM over three years, a $40MM average annual value. Deferreals reportedly drop the net present value closer to $31.9MM annually but it’s still a huge chunk of the payroll. Arenado’s deal still has roughly three years and $60MM to be paid out, when factoring in deferrals and some money being picked up by the Rockies.

Boston making a huge investment in their infield just to create roster problems was already a bit tough but is even tougher now with Bregman’s contract on the books. Chris Cotillo of MassLive today estimates the odds of Boston still being in on Arenado at “about 0.0%.”

In the larger context of the Cardinals’ offseason, it’s a very surprising place for them to be. By late September of last year, before the 2024 campaign had even fully ended, reports had emerged that the Cardinals were planning a shift in direction. 2025 was to be a sort of reset year, with the club focusing less on short-term contention and more on long-term player development. As part of this shift, Mozeliak would spent the 2025 still in his POBO title while Chaim Bloom focused on overhauling the club’s player development system, but with Bloom to replace Mozeliak at season’s end.

At that point, there was plenty of speculation that the Cards would make players available if they were expensive or nearing free agency. Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley and others seemed likely to be available.

Now, several months later, they are all still on the roster. Contreras and Gray quickly signalled that they were unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses while the club surprisingly didn’t seem to have much interest in moving Fedde or Helsley.

Arenado was reportedly more willing than Gray or Contreras to consider waiving his no-trade protection, but that didn’t mean he would approve any deal. There was some reporting that Arenado had a list of six teams that he would approve a trade to, though there was also some pushback that such a firm list existed and that Arenado’s preferences were more context-dependent.

He vetoed a deal to the Astros in December but reportedly wasn’t wholly opposed to going to Houston. Rather, he had some hesitation about the club’s direction after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Rather than wait around and see if he would change his mind, the Astros took the less-complicated route of signing Christian Walker to play first base. That effectively locked Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Tucker deal, into third base and made an Arenado deal far less likely.

While Arenado may not have had an ironclad team list, it seems his parameters will have to widen for anything to get done now. “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” Mozeliak said of Arenado’s list of acceptable teams, per Jones. “Think we’ve exhausted the others.”

Goold reported yesterday that Mozeliak had contacted five clubs that appeared to fit Arenado’s preferences, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres and Dodgers. The Astros were presumably the fifth. Goold added that the Yankees wanted the Cards to eat more of Arenado’s contract than they were willing to do. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and never seemed particularly interested in making a change there. The Padres are working under significant financial constraints. The Sox are now out after adding Bregman.

Perhaps Arenado will change his mind and consider other options, given the circumstances. His priority appears to be winning and that seems unlikely in St. Louis this year with their reset plans. Reportedly, the Royals reached out to the Cardinals this winter but were turned away since the Cards didn’t think Arenado was willing to go there. Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays reportedly pursued Bregman and might have some willingness to pivot to Arenado, though Arenado might not be willing to play for those clubs.

If Arenado does end up staying, it will leave the Cards with some playing time puzzles to figure out. Their thinking with an Arenado trade was to save some money but also to give more playing time to guys with uncertain futures. Nolan Gorman was going to get regular run at third base as he looks to bounce back from a tough season in 2024. With Arenado still around, he could get pushed back to second base. That could block Thomas Saggese and/or nudge Brendan Donovan into a utility role where he spends more time in the outfield, perhaps taking playing time from guys like Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and others.

Perhaps there are some twists and turns up ahead but it’s been a very surprising winter for the Cardinals thus far, as an offseason that once likely to involve significant changes has resulted in very few. They haven’t yet signed a free agent to a major league deal and their only trade has been to acquire depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.

Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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Feb. 13: The Dodgers made it official today, announcing that they have signed Kershaw. Right-hander River Ryan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move.

Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.

In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”

Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.

His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.

It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.

Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.

Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.

On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.

The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.

Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.

Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.

The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.

Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.

Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.

Mets Re-Sign Pete Alonso

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February 12: The Mets officially announced their deal with Alonso today.

February 5: The stalemate between Pete Alonso and the Mets is over. New York is reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $54MM deal with the star first baseman. Alonso, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out after the upcoming season. He receives a $10MM signing bonus and a $20MM salary for 2025. He’ll essentially have a $24MM player option for the ’26 campaign. The deal comes with a $27MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Alonso chose the two-year deal over a separate offer from the Mets that would have guaranteed $71MM over three seasons.

Alonso, who turned 30 in December, returns to Queens for a seventh season. He has been one of the faces of the franchise since his electrifying debut. Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs en route to a runaway Rookie of the Year win in 2019. That still stands as the all-time rookie home run record. He connected on 16 longballs in the shortened follow-up season and has topped 30 homers in each of the last four years.

That’s a testament not only to his massive power but to his exceptional availability. Alonso has played at least 152 games in each of his five full seasons. He appeared in all 162 contests last year. His only career injured list stint was a minimal stay in 2023 related to a bone bruise in his left wrist. Over the last six seasons, only Marcus Semien has played in more games. Semien and Freddie Freeman are the only hitters with more plate appearances.

On a rate basis, Alonso’s production has dropped in consecutive seasons. He carried a .261/.349/.535 batting line through his first four seasons. Alonso hit another 46 homers in 2023, though he did so with career-low marks in batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318). His average and OBP rebounded slightly last season, but his power ticked down. Alonso hit .240 with a .329 OBP and a career-low .459 slugging percentage across 695 plate appearances. His 34 homers and 88 runs batted in were each personal worsts over a full schedule.

It was a pedestrian year rather than a bad one. There’s clear value in a player who hits 34 home runs in a relative down season. Still, it was the second straight year in which Alonso’s offensive production was below his early-career level. He’s a .229/.324/.480 hitter since the start of the ’23 campaign. That checks in 21 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+.

By that statistic, Alonso ranks ninth in overall offense among the 35 first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s just behind Cody Bellinger and Josh Naylor and narrowly ahead of LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Arraez and Christian Walker. Alonso’s durability and power gives him a higher offensive ceiling than the rest of that group. Nevertheless, his recent rate metrics have put him alongside those hitters and a clear step down from Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper at the top of the position.

Alonso’s on-field value lies in the bat and his durability. He doesn’t provide baserunning value. His defensive grades at first base are middling. Defensive Runs Saved put him at three runs below par last season and has given him a +2 mark for his career. Statcast had him six runs below average in 2024 and grades him at 18 runs under par overall. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have both valued Alonso around 2-3 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.

Of course, Alonso’s value to the Mets extends beyond that production. He’s a homegrown star who is already third on the organization’s home run leaderboard. He is 16 homers shy of David Wright for second place and only needs 27 longballs to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the franchise record. He’ll almost certainly break that record, likely next season.

Alonso was also a key contributor during New York’s run to last year’s NL Championship Series. He saved the season in the Wild Card series with his three-run shot off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of Game 3. That was one of four longballs he hit in October. Alonso slashed .273/.431/.568 across 58 postseason plate appearances. Modern front offices are generally wary about putting much stock in small-sample playoff numbers, though, and Alonso’s unexceptional regular season worked against him in free agency.

The four-time All-Star hit the market envisioning a strong nine-figure deal. His camp presumably sought something in the range of the Matt Olson and Freeman contracts. Olson inked an eight-year, $168MM extension with the Braves; Freeman signed a six-year, $162MM guarantee with the Dodgers, though deferrals dropped the net present value closer to $148MM.

At one point, the Mets valued Alonso similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso made $20.5MM in his last arbitration year, so he’d need to beat $137.5MM over the next six seasons to come out ahead in that decision.

Circumstances have changed significantly since the Mets made that offer. Alonso has switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. The Mets moved on from then-GM Billy Eppler and installed David Stearns at the top of baseball operations. The Brewers rarely invested heavily in first basemen, even via arbitration, during Stearns’ tenure as Milwaukee’s general manager. He’s operating with a much different payroll ceiling under Steve Cohen’s ownership, but this generally hasn’t been his preferred player archetype.

While Stearns and Cohen maintained that they wanted Alonso back, they didn’t want to do so on a long-term deal. They made the obvious decision to put forth a qualifying offer, which the slugger easily rejected. It seems they held off on going beyond three years. As his free agency dragged, Alonso moved off his desire for a long-term deal in talks with the Mets. His camp reportedly pitched a three-year term with multiple opt-out chances. Financial specifics aren’t clear, but the Mets countered with a three-year proposal in the $68-70MM range in the middle of January. After Alonso declined, the Mets signaled they were willing to move on to contingencies.

Whether the Mets actually believed Alonso would walk or were merely signaling that as negotiating leverage, they must come away pleased with the result. The Mets reportedly had two different offers on the table: a three-year, $71MM proposal or the two-year deal which he ultimately accepted. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the three-year term also included an opt-out after the first season and would have broken down as a $27MM salary in year one followed by $22MM salaries if he didn’t opt out. Alonso preferred the extra $3MM in the first season, betting on himself to play well enough to take the out clause next winter.

The Mets keep the term short and retain Alonso on a deal that more closely resembles the two-year contracts signed by Rhys Hoskins ($34MM with Milwaukee) and Joc Pederson ($37MM with Texas) than the Olson or Freeman precedents. It’s an ideal cap to a dangerous lineup. The Mets won the Juan Soto bidding on the record-shattering $765MM deal as the Winter Meetings were getting underway. New York brought back Jesse Winker to serve as their designated hitter, at least against right-handed pitching. That’ll keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez are key holdovers, with Jeff McNeil and one of Tyrone Taylor or Jose Siri rounding out the projected starting nine.

Keeping Vientos at third base blocks the clearest path to playing time for younger infielders Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. The latter two could push McNeil for reps at second base. They all have a minor league option remaining, so the Mets could keep all three at Triple-A Syracuse. They don’t need to make a trade — there’s a good chance Alonso will retest free agency next winter — but it’s possible the surplus makes them more willing to include an upper-level infielder in a package for a top-end starter. New York has built strong rotation depth but arguably needs to increase the rotation’s ceiling to pull ahead of the Phillies and Braves in what’ll be a tough NL East race.

The deal pushes the Mets’ projected payroll to roughly $331MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. The $27MM luxury tax hit brings them to $325MM in CBT obligations. That pushes them firmly beyond the $301MM threshold that marks the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 90% clip for the approximate $3MM to push them to that threshold and at a 110% rate on spending beyond that point. The signing comes with approximately $29.1MM in taxes. They’ll pay around $59MM this season to keep Alonso. New York also relinquishes the right to the compensatory draft choice that they would have received had he signed elsewhere after declining the qualifying offer. That pick would have come after the fourth round.

Alonso secures a strong one-year salary with an eye towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter. Players cannot receive a QO more than once in their career, so he’d hit the market without draft compensation if he opts out. He’d still come out ahead of that declined extension offer if he secures a deal worth more than $107.5MM over the ensuing five seasons. That’s by no means a guarantee, as he’ll be working against the aging curve, but it’s the kind of risk-reward play that a lot of free agents take if they don’t find their ideal long-term deal on their first free agent try.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets were re-signing Alonso. Jeff Passan of ESPN had the two-year, $54MM guarantee and the $30MM in year one. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the signing bonus and that Alonso declined a three-year term, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported had a $71MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Imagn.

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