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Zack Wheeler Recommended For Thoracic Outlet Syndrome Surgery

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Phillies ace Zack Wheeler underwent surgery to remove a blood clot from his near his throwing shoulder earlier this week, but the right-hander is now facing another serious health setback.  As per a team media release today, Wheeler has been “diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and the recommendation is to undergo thoracic outlet decompression surgery in the coming weeks.”  This naturally ends Wheeler’s 2025 season, and he’ll need roughly 6-8 months to recover from the surgery, according to the Phillies’ projected timeline.

The brutal news adds to a tumultuous week for Wheeler, as it was just seven days ago that he was placed on the 15-day IL due to the blood clot.  The successful surgery on Monday at least alleviated the most serious health concerns and put the focus back on when Wheeler might be able to return to pitching, even if getting back to the mound in 2025 seemed unlikely.  Details were kept relatively scarce about Wheeler’s status, yet speculation about thoracic outlet syndrome was raised just due to the co-relation between blood clots and the venous version of TOS.

Merrill Kelly is the best-known example of a pitcher who underwent a venous TOS procedure, and Kelly is also the best-case scenario for what Wheeler can hope to achieve in the aftermath of his upcoming surgery.  Kelly underwent his surgery in September 2020, was ready to go for the start of the 2021 season, and essentially didn’t miss a beat in the aftermath as the right-hander continued to post solid numbers for the Diamondbacks and Rangers from 2021-25.

This return to form was helped by the fact that a venous or vascular TOS surgery (related to blood clots) is the slightly less serious version of thoracic outlet syndrome, at least in regards to pitching.  Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post wrote a piece a little over two years ago detailing some differences between venous TOS and neurogenic TOS — the latter is the nerve-related version that essentially ended Stephen Strasburg’s career.

“If you had to pick, you’re not really sure which one you’d rather have [between venous and neurogenic TOS],” Kelly told Dougherty.  “The blood clot was not fun.  They are life-threatening.  But for pitchers, TOS surgery to address a blood clot is much more straightforward than nerve issues.  The diagnosis is more straightforward.  The recovery is more straightforward.  I was lucky in that way.”

This provides a bit of a silver lining to Wheeler’s situation, though naturally every person’s body responds to surgery in different ways.  Only time will tell if Wheeler’s recovery can be as thorough as Kelly’s, or if Wheeler’s rehab period will extend into the 2026 season.

Losing Wheeler for 2025, of course, is bad enough for a Phillies team that has designs on winning the World Series.  Wheeler was in the midst of another excellent season, posting a 2.71 ERA and elite secondary metrics across the board over 24 starts and 149 2/3 innings.  Even in his age-35 season, the righty was continuing to add to a resume that will garner some attention from Cooperstown voters when he eventually retires.  Since the start of the 2018 season, Wheeler leads all pitchers in fWAR (37.5) and has a 3.11 ERA over 1356 2/3 innings with the Mets and Phillies.

Wheeler has been the anchor of Philadelphia’s rotation since signing a five-year, $118MM free agent deal prior to the 2020 season, and then a three-year, $126MM extension for 2025-27 that was inked in March 2024.  While losing Wheeler is a major blow, the Phils at least have a deeper rotation than most, and can still roll out Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Taijuan Walker as the starting five.  There’s extra pressure on the staff now that Wheeler is unavailable, and his sterling 2.18 career postseason ERA will be missed as the Phils try to capture that elusive championship ring.

Looking ahead to 2026, Suarez is a free agent this winter but the other four pitchers will return, plus top prospect Andrew Painter is expected to be ready for his first full Major League season.  This gives the Phillies some cover if Wheeler’s recovery does stretch beyond Opening Day, yet adding a depth arm might now be part of Philadelphia’s offseason plans based on Wheeler’s progress.

Frankie Montas Done For 2025 Due To “Pretty Significant” UCL Injury

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4:13pm: Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) that Montas’s UCL injury is “pretty significant.” Mendoza went on to confirm that Montas will not pitch again in 2025.

2:21pm: The Mets announced that Frankie Montas has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to August 22) due to a UCL-related injury in his right elbow.  Right-hander Huascar Brazoban has been called up from Triple-A to take Montas’ spot on the active roster.

It’s the latest setback in what was been a brutal inaugural season for Montas in Queens. The right-hander signed a $34MM guarantee with the Mets during the winter but has produced just 38 2/3 innings of work for the team so far. A lat strain suffered at the outset of Spring Training left Montas to open the season on the injured list and he did not make his season debut until June 24. After throwing five scoreless innings in his first start of the year, Montas pitched to a ghastly 7.85 ERA over his next six starts with an 18.2% strikeout rate and a whopping seven home runs allowed. Those brutal results led the Mets to move Montas to the bullpen earlier this month, where he’s surrendered four runs (two earned) on four walks and six hits (including a home run) while striking out just three.

Altogether, Montas has posted a 6.28 ERA and a 5.31 FIP during his time with the Mets with an 18.0% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. It’s a deeply disappointing outcome, and now it’s an open question when Montas will next be available to pitch. The Mets have made no announcements about the right-hander’s timeline for return, nor offered any indications about the severity of the injury. Of course, many fans will wonder about the possibility of Tommy John surgery, which is often required to repair a pitcher’s UCL once damaged. Such a procedure (or even a less-invasive internal brace procedure) would likely cost Montas not only the remainder of this year but also the entire 2026 season. With that being said, some UCL injuries are possible to address via rehab. That’s a path that Braves hurler Grant Holmes opted to take earlier this month as he deals with a partial UCL tear, though even Holmes’s rehab process has brought his 2025 campaign to an abrupt end.

While the details of Montas’s prognosis and timeline for return won’t be clear until the Mets make an announcement offering more information, the club will be without the right-hander for at least the immediate future. Given the fact that Montas’s performance was poor enough that he was bumped from the rotation earlier this month, perhaps that’s not too massive of a blow. Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes remain in the club’s rotation and have recently been joined by top prospect Nolan McLean. Brandon Waddell and Justin Hagenman remain in the minors already on the 40-man roster as potential depth options behind that group, and well-regarded prospect Brandon Sproat has a 4.24 ERA in 24 starts at Triple-A this year.

Replacing Montas on the roster is Brazoban, who began his career in the majors with Miami back in 2022 but has served as an up-and-down relief arm for the Mets this year. It’s a role he’s performed quite well in, with a 3.83 ERA and 4.14 FIP across 51 2/3 innings of work spread between 3 starts and 41 relief outings. Brazoban figures to take up Montas’s mantle as the club’s long reliever going forward.

Orioles Extend Samuel Basallo

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The Orioles locked up a key piece of their future on Friday afternoon, signing rookie catcher Samuel Basallo to an eight-year extension. The deal, which covers the 2026-33 seasons and comes with a 2034 club option, reportedly guarantees the CAA Baseball client $67MM. Basallo, who celebrated his 21st birthday just nine days ago, receives a $5MM signing bonus and can max out the contract at $88.5MM via various escalators. Baltimore buys out at least two would-be free agent seasons with the option for a third.

The salary breaks down as follows:

  • $1MM annually between 2026-28
  • $4MM in 2029
  • $7MM in 2030
  • $11MM in 2031
  • $15MM annually between 2032-33
  • $18MM club option ($7MM buyout) for 2034

It’s a testament to Basallo’s status as one of the most impressive prospects in the entire league. He was a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport entering the 2025 season and has only improved his stock since then after slashing .270/.377/.589 (151 wRC+) in 76 games for Triple-A Norfolk this season with 23 homers and a 13.7% walk rate. He did all that while being the youngest qualified hitter in the International League this year. That sort of sensational production left nothing for Basallo to prove at Triple-A in terms of his bat, and while his time in the majors has barely begun he’s already gotten off to a hot start by going 3-for-10 with a double, a run scored, five RBI, a hit-by-pitch and just one strikeout across his first 11 plate appearances in the majors.

With that said, questions have been raised about his defensive ability behind the plate by outside prospect evaluation services. Even GM Mike Elias himself acknowledged that he felt Basallo’s skills behind the plate needed more work before he came to the majors back in June, though the fact that he’s not only been called up since then but has now inked a massive extension certainly suggests that Elias and the rest of the Orioles’ brass have liked what they’ve seen. Just yesterday, Adley Rutschman was placed on the injured list due to an oblique strain which figures to have the secondary effect of opening up plenty of playing time for Basallo behind the plate down the stretch. That should give the Orioles plenty of opportunity to see how he handles the rigors of the position at the big league level and make an informed decision about how he’ll be used in 2026.

Whether Basallo winds up behind the plate or at first base, however, the deal is a reasonable enough sum that the Orioles can feel comfortable with the investment. Basallo’s $67MM guarantee is seventh-highest figure among 12 hitters who have extended with their clubs after making their big league debut but prior to reaching one year of MLB service time, according to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Two such players have signed extensions this year: #1 overall prospect Roman Anthony, who had 38 days of MLB service time when the Red Sox locked him up on a $130MM guarantee over eight seasons, and Anthony’s teammate Kristian Campbell, who had just six days of MLB service time when he landed an eight-year, $60MM extension that guaranteed him $59.2MM over seven years in new money.

Basallo, who is also signing an extension less than a week after his major league debut, wound up receiving a contract that narrowly beats out Campbell’s in terms of total guarantee. Of course, it can be somewhat fairly argued that both Basallo and Campbell fit better with the group of six players who have signed pre-debut extensions in the past decade given how shortly after their MLB debuts both players signed an extension. After all, players like Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuna Jr. signed nine-figure deals during their rookie seasons, but only did so after they had already accumulated more than 100 days of MLB service time and put up performances that would go on to win them their league’s Rookie of the Year award. If compared to the pre-debut group, only Jackson Chourio’s $82MM guarantee from the Brewers prior to the 2024 season was higher, as Basallo eclipses both Campbell’s aforementioned deal and the $50MM pact Luis Robert Jr. landed with the White Sox.

Because Basallo’s extension came after his MLB debut, he’s eligible to earn a draft pick for the organization via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Because Basallo debuted too late in the 2025 season to exhaust his rookie eligibility, if he earns a full year of service time in 2026 the Orioles could stand to gain a PPI pick in the event that he wins the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award or is a finalist for the AL MVP award in the years before he would become arbitration-eligible. Players who sign pre-debut extensions like Chourio are not eligible for the PPI, but that’s not the case for players who sign extensions following their MLB debut. Bobby Witt Jr. and Corbin Carroll have both netted their teams PPI draft picks even after signing extensions, for example. It’s at least plausible that those rules regarding PPI picks contributed to Baltimore’s decision to wait until after Basallo’s big league debut to finalize their extension with the youngster.

While Basallo’s guarantee is hardly onerous even for a low-spending club like the Orioles, the deal is surely both exciting and encouraging for fans in Baltimore. Previous star prospects produced by the farm system like Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have developed into star players ticketed for large paydays without signing an extension, and the lack of extensions for that first wave of youngsters has led to pessimism in some circles about the possibility of extending up-and-coming prospects from the next wave like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo. Considering that Basallo’s deal is the first long-term extension for an Orioles player since they locked up Adam Jones all the way back in 2012, it serves as much-needed assurance for fans that the organization is willing to commit to its homegrown talent long-term.

Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner first reported that the Orioles and Basallo were nearing an eight-year, $67MM deal with a club option and a max value of $88.5MM. Noah Trister of The Associated Press reported the specific salary structure.

Astros Sign Craig Kimbrel

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August 22: Houston finalized their one-year deal with Kimbrel this afternoon. They also activated Lance McCullers Jr. from the 15-day injured list to start tonight’s game in Baltimore. They cleared active roster space by optioning rookie Logan VanWey to Triple-A and placing southpaw Bennett Sousa on the 15-day injured list. Brandon Walter, who has been out for a month with elbow inflammation, was moved to the 60-day IL in the necessary 40-man move.

Sousa is dealing with elbow inflammation himself. Manager Joe Espada said Sousa reported discomfort after Tuesday’s appearance and has not progressed as hoped. He’s flying back to Houston for further evaluation while the team continues its road trip (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

August 21: The Astros are in agreement with Craig Kimbrel on a major league contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The SportsMeter client was just granted his release from a minor league deal with Texas, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Houston will need to create space on both the active and 40-man rosters.

Kimbrel spent a little more than two months in Triple-A with Texas. He signed in June one day after electing free agency from the Braves. That followed a bizarre sequence in which Kimbrel’s initial team called him up for one day. The nine-time All-Star labored through a scoreless inning in his lone appearance. That remains his only MLB outing this season. Kimbrel has otherwise divided the year between the upper minors affiliates of Atlanta and Texas.

Between the two organizations, Kimbrel carries a flat 3.00 earned run average in 39 minor league innings. He has recorded an excellent 31.5% strikeout percentage but has walked nearly 13% of batters faced. It’s a similar profile as Kimbrel has shown in the big leagues in recent seasons. He had a strikeout rate in the 31-34% range while issuing free passes between 10-13% of the time in both 2023 and ’24. Kimbrel remained effective with the Orioles in the first half of the ’24 season, but he melted down after the All-Star Break (20 earned runs in 17 innings) and has barely gotten an MLB look since then.

While the Triple-A results are solid, Kimbrel’s raw stuff hasn’t been as sharp this year. His fastball has been in the 92-93 MPH range in Triple-A; he averaged less than 92 on the heater in his only big league outing. He’d sat closer to 94 last year and was up to 96 as recently as 2023. He missed enough bats against minor league hitters to intrigue the Astros, whose bullpen has struggled of late.

Only the Rockies, Blue Jays and Nationals have a higher bullpen ERA than Houston does over the past month. The Astros lost Josh Hader for at least the remainder of the regular season to a capsule strain in his shoulder. Bryan Abreu is an elite back-end arm in his own right, and they have a strong left-handed trio of Steven Okert, Bryan King and Bennett Sousa. Abreu is essentially their only reliable righty reliever. Kimbrel’s command makes him a volatile bullpen piece as well, but he has more swing-and-miss upside than Enyel De Los Santos or Shawn Dubin provide in the middle innings.

The signing is expected to become official on Friday. Getting the deal done before September 1 means Kimbrel will be eligible for postseason play if the Astros qualify. He’ll have a little over five weeks of regular season action to convince the front office and coaching staff he’s worth carrying in October. Houston leads the Mariners by 1.5 games in the AL West. They’re 3.5 games clear of the Royals, the top team that is not currently in playoff position.

Image courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images.

Pirates Promote Bubba Chandler

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August 22: Pittsburgh officially selected Chandler’s contract. They already had two openings on the 40-man roster.

August 20: The Pirates are promoting top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler to the major leagues, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com adds that Chandler’s contract will be selected to the roster on Friday, while Hiles notes that Chandler will pitch in a long relief role.

It’s a long-awaited promotion for Chandler, who entered the season viewed as a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and on the shortlist for the league’s very best pitching prospects. The 22-year-old hurler reached the Triple-A level last year and opened eyes with a brilliant 1.83 ERA in seven starts where he struck out 34.0% of batters faced, and that led many to speculate upon whether or not Chandler would be brought up to the majors early in the 2025 campaign or perhaps even join the club’s Opening Day rotation.

That’s not the route that Pittsburgh decided to take. Chandler has spent the entire 2025 campaign at Triple-A to this point and will now will only get promoted to the majors for the final weeks of the season. The right-hander did everything he could to force the issue early in the season, with a sterling 2.03 ERA and a 35.0% strikeout rate in 11 starts through the end of May. His call to the majors never came, however, and Chandler began to struggle as the summer began. Since June began, Chandler has struggled to a 5.96 ERA due in part to vanishing command. He’s struck out just 22.1% of his opponents during that time while walking a hefty 13.1%.

A .377 BABIP since the start of June is surely the culprit for at least some of those struggles, however, and it’s also possible that the challenge of a new level could help invigorate Chandler upon his arrival to the majors. After all, this is the same prospect who dominated Triple-A to the tune of a 1.94 ERA, 2.79 FIP, and 34.6% strikeout rate across his first 18 starts at the level. High as the right-hander’s upside clearly appears to be, however, his recent struggles can’t be ignored. Perhaps that’s why the Pirates will look to ease him into the majors with a bullpen role to start off his big league career.

It’s hardly an unprecedented path for even a potential star player to take. Chris Sale and, more recently, Garrett Crochet both spent years pitching out of the bullpen before moving into the rotation and becoming the ace-level arms we know today. That doesn’t appear to be the plan for Chandler, of course, as Stumpf writes that the Pirates view Chandler as a starter long-term and he could get starts at the big league level later this year. Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer served as a swing man for the Diamondbacks during his first year in the big leagues, while current rookies like Joey Cantillo, Brad Lord, and Ryan Gusto have also broken into the majors by starting out in a hybrid role between starting and relief work. That’s also true for a few of Chandler’s Pirates teammates like Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows.

Chandler’s impending ascension to the major leagues brings together Pittsburgh’s fleet of young starting pitchers. Led by likely NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ 2026 rotation figures to feature Ashcraft, Chandler, and Jared Jones as young, talented arms who have yet to reach arbitration. It’s a highly talented, exciting group of arms that should be a strong basis for a contending team, but if the 2025 season has been any indication the club will need to assemble a much better lineup than what they’ve put together this year if they hope to compete with the rest of the NL Central for a playoff spot.

Oneil Cruz is a toolsy player with star upside, and perhaps Bryan Reynolds will rebound from his down season in order to put up the solidly above-average numbers fans in Pittsburgh have grown to expect from him. Outside of that duo, however, there isn’t much to get excited about. While top prospect Konnor Griffin turned heads in the lower minors earlier this year, he’s only just made his debut at Double-A and isn’t especially likely to debut next year. If the team is to compete next year, the team will either need massive steps forward from under-performing young players like Spencer Horwitz, Henry Davis, and Nick Gonzales or they’ll need to make meaningful external additions to the lineup via either trade or free agency.

Strong performances from young arms like Chandler and Ashcraft down the stretch this year could go a long way to convincing Pittsburgh brass that now is the time to make a significant investment in short-term competitiveness. For now, however, the focus will simply be on getting Chandler acclimated to the majors in his first few weeks as a big league player. The Pirates have space on their 40-man roster already, so they’ll only need to make an active roster move in order to bring Chandler into the fold later this week.

Though Chandler struggled a bit in the summer, that’s surely not the only factor that went into the timing of this promotion. At this point in the schedule, it’s no longer possible for a player with no major league experience to accrue 45 days of service time before the season is done. That means a prospect promoted now will still be a rookie going into 2026, as long as his club limits him to fewer than 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats.

That’s notable in this era of baseball, with the prospect promotion incentive. The PPI rules are designed to reward clubs who promote top prospects for an entire season, or enough of a season for the player to earn a full year of service time. As such, teams will often target these promotions so that the player will keep that rookie status going into the following season.

To qualify, a player needs to begin a season on two of the top 100 lists from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. As mentioned, Chandler is already a consensus top-20 prospect in the league. If the Pirates keep him under 50 innings this year and then put him on their 2026 Opening Day roster, he will be PPI eligible. He will then earn the Pirates an extra draft pick if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.

Since the Pirates aren’t competing here in 2025, they didn’t have much incentive to bring up Chandler in the summer, apart from starting the process of him getting acclimated to the big leagues. By waiting until now, they are giving Chandler less big league time in 2025 but will keep that potential extra draft pick in play for future seasons.

The Pirates aren’t the only club to follow this playbook. The Mets recently promoted Nolan McLean. The Orioles called up Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers. Surely, other top prospects will get the call in the coming days and weeks.

Evan Carter Diagnosed With Fractured Wrist

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4:34pm: Texas officially placed Carter on the 10-day IL and recalled Michael Helman from Triple-A.

1:47pm: Rangers outfielder Evan Carter was plunked by a pitch on his right wrist Thursday, and manager Bruce Bochy told hosts Kevin Hageland and Cory Mageors in a radio spot on 105.3 The Fan today that subsequent imaging revealed a fracture. The team hasn’t confirmed that Carter will miss the remainder of the season, but that certainly seems plausible, given the dwindling number of days on the schedule. The team hasn’t formally announced the injury, a placement on the IL or any corresponding transactions yet but will surely do so prior to tonight’s game.

Carter actually remained in the game after being hit on the wrist. He ran the bases for himself and played several more innings — even tallying a single in his next at-bat — before being lifted later in the game. Alejandro Osuna replaced him late in the game and could see an uptick in playing time with Carter joining Adolis Garcia (sprained ankle) on the injured list. Osuna, Wyatt Langford, Cody Freeman, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and designated hitter Joc Pederson are the other outfield options on the Rangers’ big league roster at the moment (though Pederson has played just one game in the outfield this season).

It’s the latest in an ongoing series of tough-luck injuries for Carter, a former second-round pick and top prospect who’s yet to turn in a full season at the MLB level. He’s previously been plagued by back injuries, which led to a (relatively) minor ablation procedure last October, and he also missed time earlier this season due to a strained quadriceps.

When healthy, Carter has had an up-and-down career. He took the majors by storm late in 2023, debuting with a .306/.413/.635 slash in 75 plate appearances down the stretch before posting comparable numbers in the postseason as the Rangers marched to their first World Series title in franchise history. Last year’s ongoing back injuries surely contributed to a dismal follow-up effort, wherein he slashed just .188/.272/.361 in 162 turns at the plate. He’s been somewhere between those two extremes in 2025, hitting .247/.336/.392 — about seven percent better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

All told, Carter is a career .235/.326/.420 hitter in the majors though that doesn’t include his outstanding playoff showing in 2023, when he batted .300/.417/.500 in 72 plate appearances. It’s clear that Carter is an immense talent, making it all the more frustrating for both him and the team that injuries have repeatedly kept him off the field.

The Rangers optioned Carter at the beginning of the season and kept him in Triple-A until May 6. It’s probably not a coincidence that said timeline means he’ll finish out the year just two days shy of two full seasons of major league service. Had Carter been recalled even two days earlier, he’d be controllable for an additional four seasons. Instead, the Rangers now control him for five additional years, all the way through 2030. In all likelihood, he’ll be a prominent factor in the Texas outfield both next year and for the foreseeable future — health permitting, of course.

In the meantime, a floundering Rangers club will try to piece together the outfield with a combination of Langford, Smith, Freeman, Duran and Pederson. Texas operated as buyers at last month’s trade deadline, but they’re 7.5 games back in the AL West and 5.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. Since their deadline additions are believed to have pushed them over the CBT line, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Texas placed some impending free agents on outright waivers between now and the Sept. 1 deadline for postseason eligibility, in an effort to tiptoe back underneath the luxury threshold.

Blue Jays Activate Shane Bieber

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Aug. 22: The Blue Jays announced that Bieber has been reinstated from the 60-day IL, as planned. He’ll start tonight’s game.

Aug. 18: Right-hander Shane Bieber will start for the Blue Jays on Friday. Manager John Schneider gave the news to reporters, including Mitch Bannon of The Athletic, prior to today’s game. Bieber is currently on the 60-day injured list and will need to be added to the roster before that start. The 40-man roster currently has a vacancy. If that is not filled before Friday, then only a corresponding active roster move will be required.

Bieber will be making his anticipated team debut in Miami as the Jays face the Marlins. The Jays just acquired Bieber at the deadline, even though he had not yet finished his recovery from 2024 Tommy John surgery.

The Jays are hoping that Bieber was their best bet for upgrading their playoff rotation. Their rotation otherwise features a group of solid mid-rotation type of guys. Max Scherzer has been an ace in the past but is now 41 years old and has been working around an ongoing thumb problem. Eric Lauer has an excellent 2.76 earned run average this year but he has middling velocity and he hardly pitched in the majors over the previous two years. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt are reliable veterans but few would consider them to be aces.

The peak version of Bieber would jump to the front of the group, which is why the Jays were willing to give up prospect Khal Stephen to get him. Bieber won a Cy Young award back in 2020. He had a 1.63 ERA in that shortened season, striking out 41.1% of batters faced. No one would have expected him to maintain that level of production forever. His 2021 season was a drop from those heights but still very good. He had a 3.17 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate, though a subscapularis strain knocked him out of action for about three months.

In 2022, he logged 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA but his strikeout rate dropped further to 25%. The following year, he only struck out 20.1% of batters faced as his ERA climbed to 3.80. The first warning signs of elbow trouble appeared that year, as inflammation put him on the IL for about two months. He began 2024 healthy but made just two starts before getting knocked to the surgeon’s table.

What version of Bieber shows up now is anyone’s guess. For what it’s worth, he has thrown 29 minor league innings this year while rehabbing with a 1.86 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate. Though only the most recent three outings have been at the Triple-A level, with a 24.6% strikeout rate in those. He has been averaging 92.8 miles per hour on his fastball. He was at 94.1 mph back in 2020 but dropped to 92.7 in 2021 and then was in the 91-92 range after that.

The Jays don’t necessarily need Bieber to immediately be perfect right away. They are basically assured a playoff spot now and will likely be more concerned by what they can get out of Bieber in October. That gives them a bit more than a month to assess his stuff and results. The fact that his velo has come back in Triple-A is nice but that’s not going to be enough. Sandy Alcantara has basically got his velo to pre-surgery levels this year but has posted a 6.31 ERA on the season.

It’s unclear if the Jays will go with a six-man rotation or bump someone to a long relief role. They Jays start a series against the Pirates in Pittsburgh tonight, with Gausman, Scherzer and Bassitt the scheduled starters. They are off on Thursday. Schneider said today, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet, that Saturday’s and Sunday’s starters are to be determined.

While the coming weeks are obviously important for the Blue Jays, they will be huge for Bieber personally as well. At season’s end, he will be choosing between a $16MM player option for 2026 and a $4MM buyout. If healthy and in good form, he should have an easy choice to take the buyout. Though if he struggles or gets hurt again, the choice will get tougher.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

MLB, ESPN Nearing Deal Involving MLB.TV And In-Market Rights For Five Clubs

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Major League Baseball and ESPN are seemingly going to continue their relationship but with a new shape. Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reports that the league and the network have an agreement in place which would give ESPN the right to sell all out-of-market games digitally. These rights have previously been sold by the league to consumers as the MLB.TV package. Under the agreement, ESPN will also acquire the in-market rights for the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres, Rockies and Twins. ESPN would also have an exclusive weekly game similar to Sunday Night Baseball, but on a different night of the week. The deal is not yet finalized but could be signed in September. It’s unclear how much ESPN would pay the league for this package but Marchand says it will be “substantial”.

MLB and ESPN have an existing contract but it is about to expire. The deal previously ran through 2028 but both sides agreed to opt out after the 2025 season. Under that deal, ESPN still has the rights to Sunday Night Baseball, the Home Run Derby and the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Those rights are open for 2026 and beyond. A week ago, Marchand reported that those rights would likely be split up and sold to multiple companies, with Netflix being the favorite for the Derby while NBC/Peacock and Apple TV+ are each trying to get the other components. He echoes that framing in today’s reporting.

The new developments today are potentially seismic. MLB.TV has existed in essentially the same format since 2002. Baseball fans purchase the product through the league and get access to every MLB game, with some exceptions for local blackouts and other games guaranteed to be exclusives for certain broadcasters. If this deal goes through, it’s not exactly clear how it would impact existing MLB.TV consumers but Marchand writes they would likely have to get an ESPN subscription on top of an MLB.TV subscription. It’s unclear how this would impact those who purchase MLB.TV through cable or other linear subscription.

ESPN recently launched a streaming service, allowing anyone to pay $29.99 per month to access the network’s wares, whether or not they subscribe to cable or satellite. The network has recently been building out their portfolio, signing a number of deals with the NFL and WWE.

It now seems they hope to add a number of MLB components to their menu. It’s unclear exactly how MLB.TV customers would be impacted financially. Marchand reports that the basic MLB.TV sticker price should stay the same or could even drop. Paying the ESPN subscription fee as well would lead to customers paying more, though they would also gain access to other ESPN offerings outside of the baseball world. That new arrangement would naturally be a plus for some but a minus for others.

In addition to the MLB.TV plan, it seems ESPN will be gaining local rights for five clubs. Due to cable cutting, the regional sports network (RSN) model has been slowly eroding in recent years. The five aforementioned clubs have all seen their local broadcast deals collapse in recent years, which has led the league to step in and take over. Fans of those clubs have been able to purchase streaming rights, without blackouts, directly from the league. It seems likely these customers will be able to continue in a somewhat similar fashion, though Marchand suggests they would likely have to get an ESPN subscription and then pay an added fee for the specific team they want to access.

In addition to the MLB.TV rights and the local rigths of those five clubs, ESPN will also be getting the rights for some exclusive games to be broadcast nationally. It seems this will basically function the same way as Sunday Night Baseball, though on a different day of the week. It appears the details in this arena are still being worked out, as it’s unclear which day of the week is being targeted. Apple already has the rights to a game every Friday while Roku has an early game every Sunday. Marchand adds that MLB Network could also be part of the deal but that’s more up in the air.

Whatever deal is signed would be fairly temporary. Various different reporters have frequently suggested the league doesn’t want to sign anything that goes beyond 2028. They already have a number of deals expiring after that season. It seems commissioner Rob Manfred is hoping to market a large package, or packages, of rights to multiple broadcasters ahead of the 2029 season. All recent broadcast deals have been relatively short, with nothing going beyond 2028. Marchand reports that is expected to be the case with this ESPN deal as well.

These ongoing broadcast shuffles could hang over the upcoming labor strife. It is widely expected that there will be a lockout after the 2026 season. A prolonged stoppage could lead to games being cancelled in the 2027 season. Manfred and the owners would have to be cognizant of playing chicken with the players and how that could impact these broadcast negotiations. MLB is currently experiencing an uptick in popularity, with measures such as the pitch clock credited with increased attendance and TV ratings. That kind of momentum would help the league sell future broadcast rights but a lockout extending into the summer of 2027 could undermine that.

Photo courtesy of Kirby Lee, Imagn Images

Rays Promote Carson Williams

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5:20pm: The Rays have now made it official. Williams has been selected with Kim landing on the 10-day IL due to low back inflammation, retroactive to August 20th. Outfielder Stuart Fairchild has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot. Fairchild hit the 10-day IL July 22nd due to a right oblique strain. His 60-day count is retroactive to that initial IL placement, so he could be reinstated in late September if he’s healthy by then.

12:20pm: The Rays are calling up infield prospect Carson Williams, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He will take the active roster spot of Ha-Seong Kim, who is going on the injured list, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Kim departed yesterday’s game due to back stiffness. The Rays will also need to open a 40-man roster spot.

Williams, 22, is the Rays’ top prospect and one of the top prospects in the entire league. The Rays took him 28th overall in the 2021 draft. He is currently ranked 74th overall at Baseball America, 14th at FanGraphs, 24th at ESPN and 47th at MLB Pipeline.

As can be seen from the disparity in those numbers, Williams is a divisive prospect. Keith Law of The Athletic gave him the #8 spot coming into the year but then did a midseason update of 60 names with Williams not getting a mention.

The gaps seem to be because Williams has a solid floor but big questions about his ceiling. He is considered a strong defender at short and a plus runner, which gives him the floor. Offensively, he has huge power but strikes out a ton. Prospect evaluators seem split on how much those strikeout concerns will undercut his future career as a big leaguer.

On the optimistic side, FanGraphs compares him to players like Elly De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz and Ezequiel Tovar, who have enough talent to work around strikeout totals. They suggest it’s possible Williams rounds into a player like Willy Adames at some point, while also nothing that an Adalberto Mondesí future seems possible.

Looking at traditional numbers, it’s easy to see the optimistic view. Williams hits about 20 home runs per year and steals 20-35 bases annually as well. From 2021 to 2024, across multiple levels, he stepped to the plate 1,578 times. He struck out in 30.6% of those but also drew walks at an 11.4% pace while hitting 62 home runs. His combined batting line of .256/.353/.478 translated to a 132 wRC+.

His 2025 performance highlights the pessimistic view and perhaps explains why Law bumped Williams off his midseason update. Williams has taken 451 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this year. He still has 23 home runs and 22 stolen bases, as well as a strong 12.4% walk rate, but a huge 34.1% strikeout rate has cut into his batting average and on-base percentage. His .213/.318/.447 line this year translates to a subpar 98 wRC+.

It’s quite difficult to succeed in the majors while striking out that often. Among qualified hitters this year, Cruz has the highest strikeout rate in the league at 31.9%. He has hit some huge bumbs but his .207/.304/.398 line translates to a wRC+ of 92. Players like Riley Greene and James Wood also have strikeout rates above 30% with more success, but it’s a tricky area to be in.

Clearly, there’s a wide range of possible outcomes here. If Williams can rein in the strikeouts or work around them, there’s star-level upside. The floor isn’t awful, as being a glove-first shortstop with speed can still be a useful player, but that’s something well below a star.

At some point, the Rays will have to put him in against big league pitching to see what happens, and now is a logical time. As mentioned, Kim is heading to the injured list, opening up playing time at shortstop. The club has fallen to 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. They’re not totally buried in the standings but probably leaning towards focusing more on the future than on 2025.

It also works out in terms of the prospect promotion incentive. A player can earn his club an extra draft pick if they are top prospects and hit certain criteria in terms of awards voting. A player is PPI eligible if he begins a season on two of the three top 100 lists from BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. If the club then promotes the player early enough in a season to earn a full service year, that club will get an extra draft pick if the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP or Cy Young voting during his pre-arbitration years.

It is now too late in the season for a player to get 45 days of service time. That means Williams will retain rookie status going into 2026 if the Rays keep him from getting to 130 at-bats. Assuming he still ranks on prospect lists going into 2026, he would be PPI eligible if the Rays put him on their Opening Day roster in 2026.

Photos courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Red Sox To Promote Jhostynxon Garcia, Place Wilyer Abreu On IL

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Enter the Password. The Red Sox are promoting outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia to the majors. Katie Morrison-O’Day of MassLive reported the news. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu is going on the injured list, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Abreu has been battling some calf tightness in recent days.

Garcia, 22, was an international signing out of Venezuela back in 2019. His professional debut was delayed by the minors being canceled in 2020. Since then, he has climbed the minor league ladder, posting gaudy offensive numbers. Though he sometimes has received more attention for his unique name, which led to his delightful “Password” nickname, he has been creeping up prospect lists.

Last year, he split his time between Single-A, High-A and Double-A. He got into 107 games overall, hitting 23 home runs and slashing .286/.356/.536 for a wRC+ of 149. The Sox added him to their 40-man roster in November, to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has continued hitting this year. He has appeared in 99 games between Double-A and Triple-A with 20 homers, a .289/.363/.512 line and 133 wRC+.

Despite the strong production, the Sox haven’t really had a place for him. Their outfield picture has been cluttered all year, which also kept Roman Anthony down on the farm for a while. Anthony eventually got called up and joined a group that includes Jarren Duran and Abreu. Masataka Yoshida is often in the designated hitter spot but jogs out to the outfield on occasion. Ceddanne Rafaela had been the club’s regular center fielder but he has been spending a lot of time at second base to help the Sox clear the outfield logjam.

That crowding also seemed to push Garcia onto the trading block. His name reportedly came up in talks as the Sox tried to get Joe Ryan from the Twins ahead of the deadline, but nothing got done there. Ryan stayed in Minnesota and Garcia stayed with the Sox. The Sox also gave Garcia some first base reps to expand his versatility but he still only has eight innings of actual game time there. Abreu’s injury has finally opened a path for Garcia to get to the big leagues.

It’s unclear if Garcia is up for good or if it will be a short spell. Abreu’s injury has been lingering for the past few days. Since he wasn’t immediately placed on the IL, that suggests it’s fairly minor. Presumably, the Sox will backdate his IL placement by three days, meaning he could be back in a week. That could squeezed Garcia back down to the minors, though rosters also expand from 26 to 28 on September 1st, which could help him stay.

At this point in the calendar, he likely won’t be able to exhaust rookie eligibility. It’s too late for him to get 45 days of big league service time. He also probably won’t be able to get 130 at-bats. That means he’s likely going to still be a prospect going into 2026, which could be relevant for the prospect promotion incentive.

If Garcia is on two of the three prospect lists between Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, then he could be PPI eligible. The Sox would need to call him up early enough in the 2026 season to earn a full year of service. If they did so, Garcia would earn them an extra draft pick by winning Rookie of the Year or by finishing top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration years. Garcia is already ranked the #78 prospect in the league by Baseball America and #77 at MLB Pipeline, though he didn’t crack the most recent ESPN update.

That will be a matter for the future. The logjam will still be present going into next season, unless the Sox make an offseason trade sending out someone like Duran or Yoshida. For now, the Sox are in a tight postseason race. They are 68-59, currently in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The top spot is held by the Yankees. The Sox are a game and a half back and the two sides kick off a four-game series in the Bronx tonight. Garcia will jump right into the middle of all of that and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Photos courtesy of Rick Cinclair, Imagn Images

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