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Hal Steinbrenner To Meet With Boras/Soto

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Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is scheduled to fly to Southern California for an in-person meeting with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras, report Mark W. Sanchez and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Post reports that the sit-down will occur in about a week a half — a few days after Boras and Soto welcome Mets owner Steve Cohen.

Boras suggested at this week’s GM Meetings that Soto plans to meet with the ownership group of every team that is pursuing him. That made it an inevitability that he’d sit down with each of Cohen and Steinbrenner. The Yankees and Mets are the two most obvious suitors for the market’s top free agent.

Plenty of teams would love to bring Soto into the fold. Heyman reported last week that at least 11 teams had reached out to Boras to express interest — the Giants, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox among them. Still, there’s speculation throughout the industry that Soto is likeliest to land with one of the New York teams. Boras has publicly stated that Soto is willing to sign anywhere. Saying otherwise wouldn’t do his market any favors, of course.

Phillies owner John Middleton opined today that the bidding may come down to the Yankees and Mets. “I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse,” Middleton told Conor Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “At some point, if [president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski] and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It’s perfectly good strategy. I mean, it’s smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York.“

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Super Two Status Set At 2.132 Years Of Service

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This offseason’s cutoff for Super Two arbitration eligibility has been set at two years and 132 days of service time, per reporting from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. This is an increase from last year, when the cutoff was 2.118.

Players automatically qualify for arbitration when they reach three years of service time and don’t already have a guaranteed contract. The top 22% of players in service time between two and three years also qualify one offseason early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).

Here are the thresholds from prior offseasons:

  • 2023: 2.118
  • 2022: 2.128
  • 2021: 2.116
  • 2020: 2.125
  • 2019: 2.115
  • 2018: 2.134
  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Qualifying for arbitration early can have a significant impact on a player’s earning power. There’s the immediate benefit of potentially having a higher salary in the forthcoming season, as well as the ability to go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three.

In an extreme example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays was a Super Two Player after 2021. He and the Jays went year to year in arbitration, with Guerrero earning $7.9MM in 2022, followed by $14.5MM and $19.9MM in second and third arbitration seasons. MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $29.6MM salary in 2025, Guerrero’s fourth and final arb year.

Some players who just made this year’s cutoff include Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox (2.136) and Beau Brieske of the Tigers (2.134). Blum lists Angel Perdomo of Atlanta as a player who just missed the cutoff.

Teams have until November 22 to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Players who are non-tendered become free agents without going through waivers. Those who are tendered contracts, they and the clubs have until January 9 to exchange proposed salary figures. The hearings are scheduled to take place from January 27 to February 14 in St. Petersburg, Florida. Players and clubs can avoid arbitration by agreeing to a salary at any time, though most teams have a policy of ending negotiations after the filing deadline, with exceptions for multi-year pacts.

Phillies Promote Preston Mattingly To General Manager

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The Phillies announced today that vice president and general manager Sam Fuld is pursuing his MBA at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is slated to graduate in May of 2026, at which point he will take the title of president of business operations. Assistant general manager Preston Mattingly has been promoted to take the role of vice president and general manager.

Fuld, 42, played in the majors from 2007 to 2015. Given that he went to college at Stanford and majored in economics, he was viewed by many in the game as a future front office member. He got hired by the Phillies in 2017 with the title of major league player information coordinator. His name was then connected to various managerial openings over the years but he stuck with the Phils and was promoted to GM going into 2021. Dave Dombrowski had just been hired as the club’s president of baseball operations and Fuld would be second on the baseball decision-making pyramid.

The two sides have seemingly been happy with the relationship. In December of 2022, Fuld and the Phils signed an extension running through December 2025. In October of 2023, the Red Sox had some interest in Fuld replace chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, though Fuld declined to be interviewed for the opening.

Since Dombrowski is 68 years old, many considered Fuld a sort of protege or a president-in-waiting, but now it seems he is planning a shift. His focus will be away from the club for the next couple of years and he will return to direct his attention to the business side, rather than the baseball side.

Mattingly, 37, will now take over as Dombrowski’s second-in-command. The son of Don Mattingly, Preston played in the minors for a while but never got higher than High-A. He pivoted to non-playing roles, working with the Padres in the scouting department. In the fall of 2021, he was plucked away by the Phils, who hired him as director of player development.

He has clearly impressed the Phils, as he got promoted to assistant general manager just two years later, in November of 2023. After a year with that title, he has gotten bumped up again. He is still second on the club’s front office hierarchy, but it’s an impressive rise in a short time and it’s possible that he could eventually replace Dombrowski, depending on how things go. For now, given that there’s more than 30 years’ difference in age between the two, Mattingly will presumably be absorbing everything he can about the role from Dombrowski as he takes on a larger piece of the club’s front office makeup.

Zach Neto Could Miss Start Of 2025 Season After Undergoing Shoulder Surgery

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Angels shortstop Zach Neto underwent shoulder surgery and could miss the start of the 2025 season. General manager Perry Minasian informed reporters such as Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (X link) and Sam Blum of The Athletic (X link), though didn’t specify the exact nature of the injury or procedure.

Per Minasian, Zeto sustained the injury playing in Chicago during the club’s final week of the season. While playing the White Sox on September 26, Zeto was on first base and tried to take second on a ball in the dirt (video link from MLB.com). After sliding headfirst into the bag and getting thrown out, he was clutching at his right shoulder and clearly in pain. The Angels then hosted the Rangers for the final three games of the season but Neto didn’t play in those.

Over a month has now passed since that injury. Per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link), Neto tried rehabbing but still had some lingering issues, so it seems he had to go under the knife.

Though the exact details of the situation haven’t been relayed, the timetable is not good news for the Angels. Neto has less than two years in the big leagues but has taken over the club’s shortstop job and performed well. He just wrapped up a 2024 season in which he hit 23 home runs and slashed .249/.318/.443 for a wRC+ of 114 wRC+. The reviews of his defense were mixed but he stole 30 bases on the year. Putting his total performance together, FanGraphs graded him as worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the year, tops on the team.

The club just wrapped up their worst season in franchise history, going 63-99. Despite that, owner Arte Moreno said last month that they planned to increase payroll and try to compete in 2025. They have already acquired slugger Jorge Soler from Atlanta and signed pitcher Kyle Hendricks as they attempt to upgrade the roster.

Turning a 99-loss team into a contender was always going to be a challenge, especially for a franchise that has continually fallen short of expectations. In recent years, they have had two-way star Shohei Ohtani and something near peak Mike Trout on the same roster but couldn’t even get their win-loss record over .500. Now they’ve lost Ohtani while Trout has become increasingly absent due to injuries as he pushes towards his mid 30s.

Cobbling together a winner in 2025 will now only become more difficult as their top contributor from 2024 will be missing time. Since Neto will presumably be back at some point, they probably won’t go after a big free agent like Willy Adames to fill the spot for a temporary absence. Perhaps they will keep an eye out for multi-positional players that could fill the void and then move to another spot once Neto is healthy.

It’s also possible that they’ve already been on this path. Super utility player Scott Kingery was sent from the Phillies to the Angels last week, with the Halos adding him to their roster shortly thereafter to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Kingery played mostly shortstop in Triple-A this year, also spending some time at second base and center field. He hit 25 home runs and stole 25 bases, slashing .268/.316/.488. He has a line of just .229/.280/.387 in his major league career but would be a fine utility guy if he performed the way he did in the minors in 2024.

Luis Rengifo is also on the roster and can play all over the diamond, though he’s not really considered a strong defender anywhere and is probably better suited for a less-demanding spot like second base. Kyren Paris is on the 40-man but has just 105 major league plate appearances with a rough line of .110/.214/.165 in those. Perhaps the club will keep an eye out for other depth options in free agency, the trade market, or on the waiver wire.

How the roster shakes out will be determined in the months to come. For today, it’s a setback for the Halos. They have a roster with plenty of question marks but shortstop wasn’t one of them before this news.

Yankees Exercise Club Option On Manager Aaron Boone

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The Yankees announced Friday that they’ve exercised their 2025 club option on manager Aaron Boone. He’ll return for an eighth season as the club’s skipper next year.

“Aaron is a steadying presence in our clubhouse and possesses a profound ability to connect with and foster relationships with his players,” GM Brian Cashman said in a statement within this morning’s press release. “Consistently exhibiting these skills in such a demanding and pressurized market is what makes him one of the game’s finest managers. Our work is clearly not done, but as we pursue the ultimate prize in 2025, I am excited to have Aaron back to lead our team.”

The 2024 season saw Boone’s Yankees post a 94-68 record en route to their third AL East title in seven years under his watch. It was the fifth time in six 162-game seasons that a Boone-led Yankees squad won at least 92 games. The Yanks also won their first American League pennant under Boone this past season. Of course, the season still ended in heartbreak for the Yankees, who fell 4-1 against the Dodgers in the World Series, squandering a 5-0 lead in large part due to one of the most painful innings in franchise history.

Boone and the Yankees were attempting to become the first club in MLB history to erase a 3-0 World Series deficit. No team who’d fallen behind 3-0 in the World Series had so much as forced a Game 6. The Yankees looked on their way to doing just that with five early runs against the Dodgers and Gerrit Cole on the mound, but they coughed up five runs in the fifth inning following errors by Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe as well as a defensive lapse that saw first base left uncovered on a grounder to Anthony Rizzo.

Brutal as that one inning was, it won’t sour the organization on the notion that Boone is the right person to steer the ship next year. Whether the two parties discuss an extension remains to be seen. The Yankees allowed Boone to navigate an entire season as a lame-duck skipper in 2021 before re-signing him to a three-year deal that October. As pressure for an elusive World Series trophy continues to mount, it’s at least possible that the Yankees could wait until next offseason before making their decision on whether Boone is right for the job in 2026 and beyond.

“I am grateful for the trust placed in me to lead this team. It’s a responsibility – and an opportunity – that I will never take lightly,” Boone said in his own statement. “It’s a great privilege to show up for work every day and be surrounded by so many determined and talented players, coaches and staff members. Starting with Steinbrenner family, there is a collective commitment to excellence within this organization that is embedded in all that we do.  I’m already looking forward to reporting for spring training in Tampa and working tirelessly to return the Yankees to the postseason to compete for a World Championship.”

Under Boone, the Yankees have played at a 603-429 pace. That .584 winning percentage has resulted in postseason berths in six of seven seasons. Much of the Yankees’ 2025 outlook will be dependent on how the offseason plays out. They appear barreling toward a bidding war over Juan Soto and have potential needs at multiple infield spots and in the bullpen as well.

Mets Owner Steve Cohen To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras Next Week

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The Mets have been expected to line up as one of Juan Soto’s primary suitors all winter, and after reaching out to agent Scott Boras on day one of the offseason, owner Steve Cohen is now set for an in-person visit with Soto and his agent in Southern California next week, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Of course, the Boras Corporation also represents key free agents like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi and Ha-Seong Kim. Whether Cohen and Boras will discuss any of those names — and whether any of those players will drop in for a sit-down with Cohen as well — remains unclear.

Little needs to be said about the potential fit for Soto in Queens. He’s among the game’s very best players and, as a free agent who’ll play next season at 26, he’s arguably the most coveted free agent since Alex Rodriguez reached the open market at the same age back in 2000. One could argue Shohei Ohtani as well, of course, but Ohtani hit the market at 29 and in the aftermath of an elbow surgery that would keep him off the mound or a full season.

The Mets, meanwhile, have one departing free agent outfielder (center fielder Harrison Bader), another who’s a free agent after next season (Starling Marte) and more than $100MM in free agent salaries coming off the books. Even with a full outfield, the Mets would likely be making a strong push for Soto. No team in MLB has a larger gap between their projected 2025 payroll and their 2024 payroll levels, nor does any team have a larger gap between their projected 2025 payroll and their all-time franchise-record payroll. Beyond that, Cohen is widely known as the wealthiest owner in the league. He’s a lifelong Mets fan who purchased the club as something of a passion project, and he immediately showed a willingness to put forth some of the largest payrolls of any team in major league history. The newly implemented fourth tier of luxury penalization is often colloquially referred to as the “Cohen tax.”

All that said, while an in-person meeting between the two parties is clearly of some significance, it’s not any indicator that there’s major traction toward a deal. Soto has heard from more than a third of the league, with even small-market clubs like the Rays reportedly doing their due diligence. It stands to reason that any club with serious interest is going to have an ownership meeting with Soto and Boras.

Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner reportedly had a private meeting with Soto over the summer. The Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays Nationals and others have all been mentioned as potential landing spots. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com paints a reunion between Soto and his original organization as something of a long shot, but the Nats will presumably at least be on the periphery. Soto is such an uncommon free agent archetype that teams who’d normally never play for a free agent of this caliber could well throw their proverbial hats into the ring. A quick and decisive free agent process that’s resolved in mid-November feels quite unlikely.

For the Mets, Yankees and other serious bidders, however, getting an early feel for the market will be paramount. So much of any team’s offseason budget would be allocated to a Soto signing that his landing place — regardless of where it is — will have an immediate ripple effect on where those offseason dollars are spent. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if other owners, presidents of baseball operations, general managers, etc. traveled to meet with Soto and Boras in the next week or two, as the Boras Corporation feels out the early stages of interest and sets expectations for what most onlookers expect to be a historic contract — one that could set new standards in terms of net present value and average annual value (when factoring in for the deferrals on Ohtani’s contract).

And, as far as comparing Soto’s free agency to that of Ohtani, Boras unsurprisingly dismissed any such comparisons at this week’s GM Meetings and sought to put Soto in a tier unto himself. Via Puma, Boras had this to say about the comparison:

“I don’t think Ohtani has much to do with Juan Soto at all. It’s not something we discuss or consider. Juan Soto is in an age category that separates him from all. So comparability is not when you do these things for these young players.”

Angels Sign Kyle Hendricks

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The Angels announced the signing of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks to a one-year deal. The Wassrman client reportedly receives a $2.5MM base salary.

Hendricks, 35 in December, will be suiting up for a team other than the Cubs for the first time if the deal gets finalized. Though he was drafted by the Rangers in 2011, he was traded to the Cubs prior to his major league debut, as part of the July 2012 trade that sent Ryan Dempster to Texas.

He was able to get to the big leagues by 2014 and quickly established himself as a solid rotation piece. He didn’t have overpowering stuff but showed a knack for limiting damage, earning the nickname “The Professor”. He made 13 starts and logged 81 1/3 innings in his debut, allowing just 2.46 earned runs per nine innings despite a low strikeout rate of 14.6%.

From there, he found a few more punchouts but his success was generally built around weak contact. From 2014 to 2020, he tossed over a thousand innings for the Cubs with a 3.12 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 47.5% ground ball rate. He was a pillar of the Cubs in that time, helping them become a perennial contender and break their World Series curse in 2016.

The last few years have been a bit more rocky, however. In 2021, his strikeout rate dipped to 16.7% and his ERA climbed to 4.77. In 2022, a capsular tear in his right shoulder limited him to 16 starts with a 4.80 ERA. He didn’t require surgery but was out of action until May of 2023.

He managed something of a rebound when he got back on the hill. Last year, he posted a 3.74 ERA over 24 starts after recovering from that shoulder injury. His 16.1% strikeout rate was still low but he only walked 4.7% of batters faced and prevented batters from producing big exit velocity.

The Cubs were encouraged enough to trigger a $16.5MM club option to bring him back for 2024, part of the extension the two sides agreed to ahead of the 2019 season. But that’s a move they likely regret, as Hendricks couldn’t keep his bounceback going in 2024. He struggled out of the gate and got bumped to the bullpen. Though he eventually retook a rotation role, he finished the year with a 5.92 ERA.

There might be a bit of bad luck in there, as Hendricks was only able to strand 64.2% of baserunners this year, well below the 72.1% league average. His 4.98 FIP and 4.83 SIERA on the season suggest he deserved better than his ERA would suggest, but still aren’t outstanding numbers.

Putting those recent ups and downs together, Hendricks has a 4.80 ERA since the start of 2021. His 43.3% ground ball rate in that time is around league average and his 6% walk rate quite strong, but his 16.5% strikeout rate well below par.

Perhaps the Angels see a way to get him back on track or simply want some affordable veteran innings on what may have been a hometown discount. Veteran innings eaters can often secure deals close to eight figures, even without strong overall results. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023 on the heels of a season in which he posted a 4.27 ERA. Jon Lester got $5MM from the Nationals for his age-37 after posting a 5.16 ERA. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox after putting up a 4.34 ERA in his age-36 season.

Hendricks is younger than those guys but signing for less, very early in the offseason of his very first trip to free agency. Since he grew up in Orange County, perhaps he wanted to be close to home and quickly got a deal done with the Halos, though that’s totally speculative.

Signing Hendricks would fit with the club’s longstanding aversion to spending on the rotation. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the most they’ve spent on a starting pitcher in the past decade was three years and $39MM for Tyler Anderson. Apart from that and a two-year arbitration deal for Shohei Ohtani, they haven’t given any starting pitcher a multi-year deal in that time frame.

That tendency along with struggles to develop pitching internally have led to ongoing starting pitching deficiencies in Anaheim. The club has a 4.54 rotation ERA over the past decade, 24th in baseball for that stretch, mostly ahead of clubs that underwent yearslong rebuilds. 2024 was no exception as the Angels starters had a collective 4.97 ERA this year, which was better than only the Marlins and Rockies. One of their more talented starters is going to be on the shelf for a while, as Patrick Sandoval had UCL surgery in June.

Going into 2025, the rotation mix has plenty of uncertainty. Anderson, José Soriano, Jack Kochanowicz, Reid Detmers, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri and Chase Silseth are some of the options, though there are question marks with each. Anderson had a 3.81 ERA but outperformed his peripherals and had a 5.43 ERA the year before. Soriano seemingly had a breakout campaign this year but didn’t pitch much in the 2020-2023 period thanks to two Tommy John surgeries. Detmers has shown promise at times but had a 6.70 ERA in the majors this year and wasn’t much better in Triple-A. Silseth spent most of 2024 battling an elbow injury. Kochanowicz only has 11 MLB starts while Dana and Aldegheri each have just three.

For a club that hopes to compete in 2025, adding to that rotation is a sensible path. There are more exciting options than Hendricks out there but his track record of reliability is quite strong. His modest earning power lined up with the club’s track record when it comes to not spending much on the rotation, so the stars have aligned to have Hendricks be close to home this year. For the Cubs, they no longer have any connection to their curse-breaking team on the roster, as Hendricks was the final holdout from that club.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (X link) first relayed that the two sides were nearing a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link) pegged the value around $3MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post (X link) first reported the $2.5MM number.

MLBTR Podcast: Breaking Down The Top 50 Free Agents List

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss our annual Top 50 Free Agents post. The conversation veered into these specific topics…

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits – listen here
  • The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Alex Bregman Willing To Move To Second Base

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Earlier this month, Alex Bregman was awarded a Gold Glove for his defense at third base. He has been an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series champion, but this was the first Gold Glove of his nine-year career. The honor was well deserved. According to Baseball Savant, Bregman set new career highs in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV). The metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree he was the most valuable defensive third baseman in the American League. Yet, Bregman’s agent Scott Boras revealed at the GM meetings this week that multiple teams have asked about his client’s willingness to move to second base – and Boras confirmed that Bregman would indeed be willing to make the change (per Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

It’s not necessarily surprising that Bregman would be amenable to switching positions. Extra versatility will only make him more appealing as a free agent. The more suitors he can attract, the more money he can command. Similar reports came out this week about fellow top free agent Willy Adames, a talented shortstop who would be willing to move to second or third base on the right deal. Moreover, it’s not as if Bregman would be completely new to the keystone. He played a handful of games at second base in each of his first three MLB seasons. He also has plenty of experience at shortstop from college and his early professional years.

What is slightly more surprising is the fact that teams would be interested in Bregman playing second base in the first place. He’s a good enough hitter that his bat could play anywhere around the diamond, but he is an experienced third baseman coming off the best defensive season of his career. It’s hard to imagine his glove would be quite as valuable at a new position – nor would his bat necessarily play any better at second base. Historically, second base has been a weaker offensive position than third, but the gap has nearly disappeared over the last two years. From 2023-24, second basemen have produced a .308 wOBA. Third baseman have put up a .309 wOBA in that time. Finally, there is more competition on the free agent market at second base than third. Adames and Ha-Seong Kim can play both positions, but each has more big league experience at second. In addition, two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres and Hyeseong Kim. Bregman is the only primary third baseman on our top 50 list.

On the other hand, Bregman has never had a good arm for a third baseman. What’s more, it’s quite possible he would have been a second baseman all along if it weren’t for Jose Altuve blocking the position in Houston. Considering Bregman’s arm looked weaker than usual in 2024 (and that he just had surgery on his throwing elbow), perhaps some of his suitors think he’ll be a better defender at second base in the long run. Alternatively, they might just be hedging their bets in case his elbow problems linger into next season.

Regardless, Bregman continues to be most strongly linked to Houston this offseason. GM Dana Brown told reporters (including Jon Heyman of the New York Post) at the GM Meetings that he thinks the Astros have “a really good chance” of re-signing their homegrown star. In that case, there is no doubt he would resume his duties at the hot corner in 2025. Altuve is coming off another All-Star season at second, and the face of the Astros franchise is under contract for another five years and $125 million.

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