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Nationals Sign Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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The Nationals announced the signing of left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year deal on Friday. The WME Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $3.5MM. He’ll make $1.5MM this year and $2MM in 2026. The Nationals will pay a $700K posting fee to his former team, the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It’s a $4.2MM investment altogether. Fellow lefty Joe La Sorsa was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Ogasawara, 27, pitched in part of nine seasons for Dragons. He threw 951 1/3 innings, allowing 3.62 earned runs per nine. He struck out 18.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 7.7% clip.

Despite fairly decent run prevention, there are also some concerning elements in Ogasawara’s profile. His strikeout rate in Japan is a bit below what is expected of hurlers in North America these days, as the league average has been in the 22-23% range in recent seasons. He’s also a bit undersized, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That size isn’t necessarily a disqualification, as it actually makes him larger than Shota Imanaga, who is 5’10” and 175. Imanaga proved himself capable of handling MLB hitters in 2024 but he also had a 25% strikeout rate in his NPB career before crossing, notably higher than Ogasawara.

It’s also a metric that has wavered for Ogasawara. He got his rate of punchouts as high as 24% in 2022, but then it dropped to 20.1% the year after and then fell way down to 13.6% in the most recent season. That big drop in strikeouts did coincide with a tiny walk rate of 3.7% and he still managed to post a 3.12 ERA, but it does lead to questions as to how his stuff will play in his new environment. He throws a fastball in the 91-93 mile-per-hour range, as well as featuring a curveball and a changeup.

Despite the question marks, it’s a sensible gamble for the Nats to take. The club has been rebuilding for a while, having recently wrapped up their fifth straight losing season. There was some speculation that they might come into this offseason looking to take a step forward, perhaps making a bold strike or two, but that hasn’t really come to pass.

They did make some moves, but mostly avoided committing themselves to anything beyond 2026. They signed Josh Bell, Michael Soroka, Amed Rosario and Jorge López to one-year deals. They brought back Trevor Williams on a two-year pact. Nathaniel Lowe, who has two seasons of club control remaining, was acquired from the Rangers.

Bringing in Ogasawara on a two-year pact aligns with those other moves. The club has seemingly taken the path of making some decent additions while also waiting to see how young players like Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House develop. Once they get more clarity on those players and others, they can decide about more assertive moves in the future.

The same is largely true of their rotation. Young and controllable pitchers like MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz and Cade Cavalli have shown some progress to varying degrees but there are still some question marks there. Irvin and Parker have posted decent run prevention numbers but with subpar strikeout rates. Herz had a nice MLB debut in 2024 but had massive walk problems in the minors. Cavalli missed the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery.

The Nats would probably like a bit more time to continue evaluating those guys to see who among them can emerge as real rotation building blocks. They could have rolled into the season with a rotation of Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz and Cavalli but clearly wanted to add some more options and improve the overall depth. As mentioned, they signed Soroka and Williams, with Ogasawara now added into the mix as well.

Those three and Gore should have four rotation spots accounted for, at least to start the season. Both Soroka and Williams have some relief experience and could get pushed to the bullpen if they struggle or one of the younger guys pushes them out. Each of Irvin, Parker, Herz and Cavalli have options and could get pushed to Triple-A. The Nats could perhaps consider a six-man rotation, though doing so would limit them to a seven-man bullpen. Josiah Gray could get back in the mix late in 2025 but is currently rehabbing from a Tommy John and internal brace surgery which was performed in July.

Perhaps the bolstered roster will push the Nats into a greater chance of contention, but they are also looking up at three really strong teams in the division. Atlanta and Philadelphia have been powerhouses for years while the Mets just made the playoffs and have been very aggressive, including adding Juan Soto. If the Nats find themselves outside the playoff mix come July, any of the players they’ve added could become trade candidates, on account of their short windows of club control.

The Dragons posted Ogasawara on December 10, which led to a 45-day posting window that ended today. If he had not signed, he would have returned to the Dragons but he’ll be coming to Washington instead. Unlike Roki Sasaki, Ogasawara is not subject to the international bonus pool system. That’s because he is over 25 years old and has at least six professional seasons on his track record. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

The Nats owe the Dragons a posting fee, with the size of that fee dependent on the size of the contract. That fee will be equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Since Ogasawara signed for less than $25MM, it’s simply 20% of the guarantee.

La Sorsa, 27 in April, has been a fringe member of the Washington roster for a while. He was claimed off waivers from the Rays in June of 2023 but was outrighted off the roster in December of that year. He got his roster spot back in August of 2024 but has now been bumped off again.

Between the Rays and the Nats, he has 50 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 4.47 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. He had a strong showing in the minors in 2022, throwing 73 1/3 innings with a 2.33 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate. However, he’s been a bit less impressive over the past two seasons, having thrown 92 2/3 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. A .268 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate helped him out in that time, which is why his 4.62 FIP was almost two runs higher than his ERA.

He’ll now head to DFA limbo for a week at most. The Nats could explore trades for the next five days but would have to put him on waivers after that, since the waiver process takes 48 hours. If he were to pass through unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency on account of his previous outright.

The Associated Press reported the terms of Ogasawara’s deal.

Dodgers Sign Tanner Scott

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Jan. 24: Scott’s deal also contains a conditional club option for the 2029 season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. That option, valued at $5MM plus incentives, would only be available if Scott suffers a “qualifying injury” and is not traded throughout the four-year term of his contract.

In essence, it’s likely a safety net for the Dodgers (and only the Dodgers) in the event of a major injury. Specifics regarding this option aren’t yet clear, though prior instances of conditional options such as this one typically revolve around UCL injuries. Scott does not have a no-trade clause, but he’d receive a $3MM assignment bonus if traded to another team, Ardaya adds.

Jan. 23: The Dodgers’ spending blitz formally continued Thursday, as they announced the signing of left-hander Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal. Scott, a client of the MVP Sports Group, reportedly receives a $20MM signing bonus on the contract, which contains $21MM of deferred money.

Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.

Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.

With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the agreement and the terms. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Robert Murray of FanSided added details about the signing bonus and deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Braves Sign Jurickson Profar

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The Braves announced that they have signed free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42MM deal. The MVP Sports Group client will make $12MM this year and then $15MM in each of the next two seasons. Atlanta designated right-hander Connor Gillispie in a corresponding move.

Profar, 32, has been wildly inconsistent in his career but is coming off his best season. Once a top prospect with the Rangers, he made it to the majors as a 19-year-old but struggled in his first few seasons. He eventually showed some promise but frustratingly alternated between good and bad seasons.

He had one of those down seasons in 2023, which is why the Padres were able to sign him last offseason for just $1MM, barely above the league minimum. The Padres probably couldn’t have dreamed about the return on investment they would eventually get from that.

Profar got into 158 games and stepped to the plate 668 times. His 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were both strong numbers but fairly normal for him. He managed to do more damage when he connected, without sacrificing any of his trademark plate discipline. His 24 home runs were a career high. The three numbers in his .280/.380/.459 slash line were all personal bests as well, apart from a .471 slugging percentage in his nine-game debut back in 2012. His 139 wRC+ easily eclipsed his previous personal high of 113 and was also put him in the top 15 among qualified hitters last year. The switch-hitter did that damage from both sides of the plate, with a 137 wRC+ as a lefty and 147 as a righty.

Given his capricious production over the years, it would be fair to be a bit skeptical that he could keep that kind of performance going. However, there are some encouraging numbers under the hood. Profar’s 44.8% hard hit hate rate, 91.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 7.2% barrel rate were all significantly better than anything he had done before. His .302 batting average on balls in play was a career high but just a bit above the .291 league average.

Though Profar has played all over the diamond in his career, he’s mostly a left fielder now. He’s barely played the other outfield slots in his career. He hasn’t really been an infield regular since 2019. He logged just 18 innings at first base last year, the only place he played apart from left field during the campaign.

Profar’s work in left hasn’t been especially well regarded. Last year, he was given a grade of -8 from Defensive Runs Saved and -6 from Outs Above Average. Despite that, thanks to his huge offense and ten stolen bases, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season.

That production was huge for the Padres, given that they had notable financial restraints, which is why they took that $1MM flier on Profar. They surely would have welcomed him back, given the longstanding ties between Profar and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. However, their financial situation is perhaps even more grim now than it was a year ago. They reportedly need to make significant cuts to the budget while also looking for solutions on the roster. In addition to Profar’s absence in left, they have question marks behind the plate, in the rotation and at shortstop.

Profar has also expressed a fondness for San Diego and probably wanted to go back, but he also probably recognized that this is probably his best chance at a free agent payday. He had previously signed a three-year, $21MM deal with the Padres going into 2021 but opted out of that pact after two years. He settled for modest one-year deals in the past two offseasons but has now secured himself a strong three-year deal. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $45MM deal for him at the start of the offseason.

For Atlanta, outfield has stood out as a clear area for improvement this winter. Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last year and missed the second half of the season. He’ll be back in right field at some point in 2025 but probably not on Opening Day. Players like Ramón Laureano and Jorge Soler were used to cover for Acuña’s absence but jettisoned after the season. Soler was flipped to the Angels while Laureano was non-tendered. The club’s acquisition of Jarred Kelenic last offseason also didn’t go especially well. He struck out 29.6% of the time and hit .231/.286/.393 for a wRC+ of 86.

Time will tell how the club plans to play it once everyone is healthy. Michael Harris II will be in center but Atlanta has its designated hitter spot committed to Marcell Ozuna. Profar and Kelenic can flank Harris for now but Acuña will eventually be back. The lefty-swinging Kelenic has better numbers against righties but the club presumably isn’t giving the Profar $42MM to be a short-side platoon guy.

Perhaps Kelenic will eventually get pushed into a fourth outfielder role once Acuña is back, though he may have a bit of time to prove himself worthy of more. Ozuna is an impending free agent, so perhaps the foursome of Harris, Acuña, Profar and Kelenic can better co-exist in 2026 and beyond. Kelenic does have an option remaining, so some time in the minors is possible as well.

With Profar now in the fold, RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s payroll at $212MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM. The latter is $11MM shy of this year’s base threshold. They opened last year at $223MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has previously said that he expects payroll to rise and that the club is willing to pay the tax again this year. However, most of his moves have been focused on adding financial breathing room. As mentioned, Soler was flipped in a salary dump and Laureano was cut. Travis d’Arnaud had his club option turned down. The club restructured the contracts of Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to kick some money down the road.

If there is still some powder dry, then perhaps Atlanta will pivot to adding some pitching in the coming weeks. They were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier in the winter and reportedly had an agreement in place with Jeff Hoffman, with Hoffman to be stretched out as a starter, before they grew concerned by something they saw in his shoulder during his physical. They were also connected to reliever Tanner Scott earlier in the winter. All those guys have signed elsewhere but the interest indicates Atlanta is looking to add to the staff.

For clubs still looking for outfield help, the market is essentially out of everyday players now. Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Tyler O’Neill and Profar are now all off the board. The best remaining outfielders are role players like Harrison Bader, Randal Grichuk and Alex Verdugo. Clubs like the Royals, Astros and Blue Jays have been connected to Profar this winter, though the Jays signed Santander earlier this week.

Gillispie, 27, just signed a non-guaranteed contract with Atlanta in November. He made his major league debut with Cleveland last year but only logged eight innings and was non-tendered at season’s end. In his minor league career, he has thrown 426 1/3 innings with a 4.01 earned run average, 24.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Atlanta will have one week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next for him. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any potential trade talks would have to come together in the next five days.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the agreement between Atlanta and Profar.

Introducing Our New MLB GM Tracker

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Examining the history of an MLB GM can be essential for research or informed speculation.  The problem?  There’s never been one place to easily reference each GM’s tenure…until now.

I’m proud to introduce our new MLB GM Tracker, a simple yet powerful tool for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers that displays each team’s GM dating back to the year 2000.  To the best of our ability, we’ve compiled start and end dates for every GM during that period, including those who served in an interim capacity.  You can learn more about Trade Rumors Front Office here.

The MLB GM Tracker allows you to search by name and filter by team, narrow to current GMs, and filter and sort by the number of active days.  At the moment, MLB GM tenures range from Buster Posey’s 115 days to Brian Cashman’s 9,851 days on the job.

One note: for this tool, we’re using “GM” as an umbrella term to mean the team’s top decision-maker in baseball operations.  Many of these people hold the title of “president of baseball operations” or something similar.

Here’s a look at the team level:

We’ve connected the MLB GM Tracker to our robust MLB Contract Tracker as well.  Clicking the GM’s name in the GM tracker takes you to his entire tenure with that team, within the Contract Tracker.  Here’s Matt Klentak:

When you’re in the Contract Tracker, which currently goes back to 10-1-08, you can filter to any GM and adjust the date range to see that GM’s work across different teams.  Here are Alex Anthopoulos’s biggest deals across the Braves and Blue Jays:

To learn more about our suite of MLB research tools, click here.  A subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office costs just $29.89 per year.

Please note: GM tenure dates were compiled through our research.  If you find an error, please use our contact form.  

Also, David Forst’s tenure with the A’s had to be broken up into two separate entries due to the team changing its name.

Astros Have Kept Offer Out To Bregman

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This afternoon provided a surprise when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros were leaving the door open to bringing back Alex Bregman. It was generally expected that the Astros had moved on once they acquired Isaac Paredes and signed Christian Walker to play the corner infield spots.

However, it seems the Astros never fully closed the door on their longtime third baseman. Houston had reportedly made Bregman a six-year, $156MM offer before they landed Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker return. Bregman obviously did not accept, though it does not seem that the team has pulled the offer even after what seemed to a pivot to contingency plans.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Houston’s offer “remains on the table.” Rome writes that pressure within the Astros’ clubhouse has contributed to the team reopening discussions with the two-time All-Star in recent days. It isn’t known if that means they’re open to pushing their offer beyond $156MM, or if they’re simply hoping that Bregman’s asking price will come down to their level now that he’s unsigned deep into January.

Nightengale suggested this afternoon that if the Astros managed to keep Bregman, they could slide Paredes to second base while bumping Jose Altuve to left field. Rome confirms that the team is indeed considering that scenario. While Altuve to the outfield doesn’t seem to be set in stone, Rome writes that Bregman would stick at third base if he signed back in Houston. They’d need to find somewhere else in the lineup for Paredes.

Money remains a stumbling block. The Astros exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Rome reports that owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to do so for a second straight year. Houston already projects narrowly above the $241MM base threshold, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number around $244MM. The Astros could make a trade to dip below that mark. They’ve been working to offload most or all of the $14MM owed to setup man Ryan Pressly, though the veteran righty has full no-trade rights and could scuttle those plans. Mauricio Dubón ($5MM) and Chas McCormick ($3.4MM) are on manageable arbitration salaries and could be possible trade options if Houston can’t deal Pressly.

There’s essentially no way they’d get below the tax line if they re-sign Bregman. He’d very likely command more than $25MM annually. Even if they trade Pressly and decide to deal Paredes, who’ll play on a $6.625MM arbitration salary, they’d be above the line. That the Astros apparently still have an offer out to Bregman demonstrates that Crane isn’t firmly committed to staying below the tax threshold. The owner has said as much this offseason, though he has also been reluctant to approve long-term deals. Houston hasn’t signed a free agent contract longer than the five-year, $95MM Josh Hader deal from last winter since Crane purchased the franchise more than a decade ago.

The Tigers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have also been linked to Bregman. Talks between the infielder and Detroit were reportedly at a standstill as of Tuesday evening.

Latest On Blue Jays, Pete Alonso

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5:30pm: Tim Healey of Newsday provides a similar report to Martino, saying that the two sides are deep in talks. However, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that there’s no gaining momentum for the Jays to sign Alonso or Scherzer.

3:05pm: The Blue Jays have been known for a while to have interest in free agent first baseman Pete Alonso. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that talks between the two sides are “advancing,” though he cautions that nothing is done yet and it can’t be certain that a deal will be completed.

Though nothing is done yet, it would be quite an interesting offseason pivot for the Jays if they could get the deal over the line. For the first few months of the winter, the club was defined by coming up just short in their pursuits of free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki. When combined with last winter’s near miss on Shohei Ohtani and a disappointing 2024 season, frustration was high among the fanbase.

The volume of the murmuring decreased somewhat in recent days as the Jays signed outfield Anthony Santander to provide the lineup with a power boost. But even after that deal, it didn’t seem as though the Jays were done. They reportedly still have payroll space and have been recently connected to players like Alonso, Jurickson Profar and Max Scherzer.

If Alonso is ultimately brought north of the border alongside Santander, the two would make for fairly similar additions. Both players have power as their clear best trait, with their other contributions a bit more muted.

Alonso has clubs 226 home runs over the past six seasons, which puts him second only to Aaron Judge for that span. But despite that huge power, he has lingered unsigned in free agency as spring training is just over the horizon.

That is perhaps due to the other parts of his profile. His 9.9% career walk rate is a bit above average but not by much. He doesn’t have huge speed on the basepaths. The reviews on his defense have been mixed, with Alonso having earned +2 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but getting a grade of -24 from Outs Above Average. His offense has also been relatively lower of late. He slashed .261/.349/.535 through 2022 for a wRC+ of 137, but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+ over the past two years.

That’s still really strong production but it’s possible that it contributed to a gap between what Alonso and his reps were expecting from free agency and what clubs were willing to offer. The power-only right-handed slugger is a profile that hasn’t been paid well in a while and Alonso’s recent dip may not have helped him.

Many expected him and the Mets to reunite but the club didn’t seem too keen on that. Even as Alonso and his reps have pivoted to considering short-term deals recently, the Mets apparently capped their offer in the range of $68-70MM over three years. That amounts to something close to $23MM annually, a lower average annual value than Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were able to get even though they remained unsigned into February/March of last year.

It’s unclear what kind of terms Alonso and Jays are discussing, but he would be a sensible fit for them, despite his flaws. The Jays had some strengths last year but power was a clear weakness. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the club to get to the 20-homer plateau. The team-wide tally of 156 long balls was 26th out of the 30 clubs in the league, ahead of only the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.

Their walk rate, however, trailed only six teams. Their defense was considered quite strong, with DRS having them tops in the majors and OAA considering them the fourth-best. Therefore, adding a player who mostly provides power was a sensible target coming into the offseason.

They already made one such addition with Santander. Like Alonso, his power is a greater strength than his defense, speed or on-base ability. But the Jays are seemingly willing to go after the weakest part of their 2024 club and attack it.

Fitting everyone into the lineup would be a bit of a challenge. The Jays already have a first baseman in Guerrero. With Alonso on the club, the two would presumably share first base and the designated hitter spot somewhat regularly. Guerrero has played a bit of third base in his career but only 14 games in the past five seasons. Most of those came last year as the club was playing out the string on a lost season.

Without Alonso on the club, corner outfielders Santander and George Springer make sense as the top candidates to receive lengthy stints in the DH spot. As mentioned, Santander is not a great fielder. Springer has been a good defender in his career but is now 35 years old and he’s naturally sliding a bit in that department. Adding Alonso would limit the ability of the Jays to use Springer or Santander in the DH spot, unless they are willing to put Guerrero at third more often than expected. As of now, Ernie Clement profiles as the club’s best option at the hot corner. Since he’s more of a glove-first guy capable of playing other positions, it’s possible he could be deployed in more of a utility role. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible the Jays could start some games with Guerrero and Alonso at the corners, with Clement subbing in at third late in the game if the club is ahead and wants to prioritize defense. At that point, either Guerrero or Alonso could head to the bench, with the other at first.

It’s an interesting gambit and time will tell if the two sides get anything done. The Jays apparently still have some money to spend and have some options available. Whether that’s Alonso, Profar, Scherzer, someone else or some combination, it appears they are still busy in trying to salvage the offseason after a few misses earlier on.

Signing Alonso would also require the club to forfeit a draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool space because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. The Jays already gave up pool space to sign Santander but added $2MM in the ill-fated Myles Straw deal when they were courting Sasaki, so they probably aren’t especially worried about that part. Since they already surrendered their second-best pick in the upcoming draft to get Santander, signing Alonso would mean also forfeiting their third-highest pick. The Mets would receive a compensation pick for Alonso leaving, but as a club that paid the competitive balance tax last year, that pick wouldn’t come until after the fourth round.

Report: Astros Still Not Ruling Out Alex Bregman Reunion

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The Astros’ chances of retaining Alex Bregman seemingly went up in smoke when he declined their reported six-year, $156MM offer earlier this winter. Houston pivoted quickly, first trying to engineer a trade for Nolan Arenado, which the current Cardinals third baseman nixed by way of his no-trade clause. The ’Stros pivoted again, signing first baseman Christian Walker for three years and $60MM. In doing so, they pushed Isaac Paredes — acquired from the Cubs as part of the Kyle Tucker return — across the diamond to third base. Or, so it seemed.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Astros are still “keeping the door ajar” for Bregman. It’s a long-shot pairing in light of the new-look corner infield in Houston, but the team has at least considered a scenario where they’d move Paredes to second base and play Jose Altuve in left field, should Bregman ultimately return. It’s an out-of-the-box solution, but the Astros have been (unsuccessfully) hunting for outfielders in free agency and trade. Nightengale adds that the Astros “aren’t optimistic” about their chances, however, adding that Bregman presently has at least two serious offers in hand.

Beyond the roster considerations, there’s the financial aspect to consider. Owner Jim Crane has publicly stated that he has the “wherewithal” to match last year’s $244MM payroll and $262MM worth of luxury obligations, though the team’s actions this winter have suggested otherwise, to an extent. Houston traded its best player, Tucker, to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect/2024 first-rounder Cam Smith. They’ve also reportedly been shopping Ryan Pressly, who’s owed $14MM but has full no-trade protection.

That said, Crane suggested when making his comments about 2025 spending that the extent to which the club did or not spend would depend on the specific players available to them. Pushing to a $260MM CBT number again for a free agent who’d be new to the organization and doing so for a longtime cornerstone player whose entire career has been spent with the ’Stros are quite different. One trait Bregman has drawn consistent praise for both from the Astros and in reports citing anonymous coaches and executives around the league is his fiery leadership and clubhouse demeanor. The Astros are more familiar with that than any team, and logic dictates that they’d likely be most willing to pay a premium for it. Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros aout $3MM north of the $241MM luxury barrier. Signing Bregman would put them over with minimal chance of ducking back underneath.

A move to the outfield for Altuve would register as a major surprise, but it’s not exactly hard to see why Houston might ponder it. Altuve’s defensive grades have cratered in the decade since he won his lone career Gold Glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 in both of the past two seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him at -8 this past season. Altuve made only five errors on the season, but that seems largely due to his inability to get to balls he might’ve had a play on several years ago; Statcast graded Altuve’s range in just the third percentile this past season. His arm strength was similarly panned, landing in the seventh percentile.

There are other alignments that could be considered. The Red Sox, among other teams, have been rumored to view Bregman as a second base option. (Skipper Alex Cora recently spoke on the record about his belief that Bregman could be a plus defender there.) Houston could also leave Bregman and Altuve at their customary spots and move Paredes to left field. However, he’s notably slower than Altuve and has below-average arm strength himself. Altuve still has nearly average speed, and Houston’s left field is smaller than most thanks to the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. The Astros have reportedly been in the market for corner outfield upgrades but have not yet found a deal to their liking.

Bregman has reportedly drawn interest from the Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays and to a lesser extent the Cubs, although Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated he feels next year’s third baseman is “likely” already in the organization. At least to this point, Bregman hasn’t been open to the sort of short-term pacts to which many top free agents acquiesce late in the winter. As of this writing, it’s not clear whether Bregman has received any long-term offers other than the original six-year proposal from Houston. The Tigers have been cast as perhaps the other top landing spot, but talks between the two sides reportedly reached a “standstill” this week.

Mets Sign A.J. Minter

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The Mets announced that they have signed free agent reliever A.J. Minter. It’s reportedly a two-year, $22MM contract. The Bledsoe Agency client can opt out after the first season. The Mets had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Minter, 31, has been a strong performer in recent years. However, there is at least some uncertainty due to his health. He went on the injured list twice in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in August.

It’s unclear exactly when Minter will be fully healthy again but the surgery doesn’t seem to have hurt his market. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox over the past couple of months and now has a strong pact with the Mets. Perhaps that indicates clubs aren’t too worried about his recovery from the hip procedure impacting him in 2025.

Just looking at Minter’s results, the robust interest makes plenty of sense. From 2020 to 2024, the lefty made 267 relief appearances, allowing 2.85 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. He was a key relief arm for Atlanta, who let him earn 16 saves and 92 holds in that time. Even while pitching through the hip problems in 2024, he managed to throw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Despite the hip surgery, it was fair to expect Minter to be one of the most popular relief arms in this winter’s market. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $16MM pact but almost all pitchers have been outearning their projections this winter, with Minter no exception. He gets a $22MM guarantee and also an opt-out, meaning he will have the ability to become a free agent again next winter if he demonstrates his health and has a strong season.

The Mets are a sensible landing spot for Minter, as their bullpen is in a state of flux. At the end of the 2024 season, they saw Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Phil Maton become free agents.

The club also came into the winter particularly shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief. Raley was one such member on the 2024 club, though he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of May, well before he became a free agent. Jake Diekman was released during the season. Josh Walker was traded around the same time. Alex Young was non-tendered at the end of the year.

All of that left the Mets with Danny Young as their only southpaw reliever on the roster, so an addition made plenty of sense. They signed Génesis Cabrera to a minor league deal and have been connected to free agents like Tanner Scott and Tim Hill. Signing either Scott or Hill could still be an option but the lefty contingent of the Mets bullpen now looks much stronger with Minter in it. Per Mike Puma of The New York Post, the Mets are unlikely to continue pursuing Scott with Minter now on board.

For the Mets, perhaps this is yet another move away from their relationship with Pete Alonso. As recently as yesterday morning, it seemed possible that the Mets and Alonso would work something out. But reporting from yesterday afternoon indicated that the Mets didn’t want to have a prolonged staredown with Alonso. Since they had other players on their radar, they planned instead to move on and spread money around to various different players. In the past 24 hours, they have agreed to new deals with Jesse Winker and now Minter.

The deal with Minter pushed the club’s payroll and competitive balance tax number up to $297MM and $293MM respectively, in the eyes of RosterResource. Last year, those numbers were $336MM and $346MM. If they are willing to get to similar levels in 2025, they still have lots of space to work with. That could be enough room to bring back Alonso but the Mets might also look to make further bullpen upgrades.

They are already between the third and four tiers of the CBT, which are $281MM and $301MM this year. As a third-time payor, they will be facing a tax of 95% for any more money they add up to the fourth line and a 110% rate for spending beyond it. Since Steve Cohen became owner of the team, the tax has never really seemed to be any kind of obstacle for the Mets.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets had an agreement with Minter. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the two-year, $22MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the opt-out provision.

Twins, Padres Have Discussed Christian Vazquez Trade

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The Padres and Twins have had discussions about a potential trade that would send veteran catcher Christian Vázquez to San Diego, report Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is imminent. Indeed, Hayes suggests that conversations have “slowed” recently, though that doesn’t mean that the sides won’t continue talks in the coming days.

Vázquez is both a logical trade candidate for Minnesota and an obvious fit for San Diego. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said last week that the team’s trade talks had started to pick up steam. While Falvey didn’t identify specific players under discussion, Vázquez is arguably the most obvious candidate. He’s entering the final season of a three-year free agent deal. He has split time with Ryan Jeffers over his two years in the Twin Cities.

Over the past two seasons, Jeffers carries a .246/.328/.456 batting line in exactly 800 trips to the plate. Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 through 670 plate appearances. Manager Rocco Baldelli nevertheless stuck to the even divide in playing time last year. Each player made 81 starts. Jeffers caught 720 1/3 innings, while Vázquez logged 719 frames.

Jeffers clearly brings a much higher offensive ceiling. Vázquez is the superior defender. While Jeffers receives subpar grades for his receiving skills, Vázquez has long been a quality pitch framer. He was also a superior blocker. Last year, Vázquez was charged with just one passed ball and was behind the plate for 19 wild pitches. Jeffers committed three passed balls and allowed 28 wild pitches.

Despite Vázquez’s defensive advantage, the Twins may prefer to give Jeffers an extra 15-20 starts to keep his bat in the lineup. That’s particularly true when considering the financials. Vázquez’s deal pays him $10MM annually. That’s a lot for a part-time catcher. Minnesota’s front office has been hamstrung by the budget for a second straight offseason. The Pohlad family ownership group has been loath to raise payroll as they explore a sale of the franchise. Minnesota has not made a single major league free agent signing this winter. Their biggest moves have been depth trades for Mickey Gasper and former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya.

The Padres are in a remarkably similar spot. While ownership isn’t selling the franchise, there’s litigation amongst the Seidler family for control. San Diego has slashed payroll for two straight years themselves. They also have not signed any major league free agents or made any trades of consequence.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has his work cut out for him in addressing multiple areas of need with a limited budget. Catcher is probably the biggest issue on the position player side. San Diego hoped that Luis Campusano would run with the job in 2024. Instead, he hit .227/.287/.361 while grading as one of the league’s worst defensive catchers.

Campusano ceded the starting job to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch. Higashioka landed with the Rangers on a two-year free agent deal, leaving Campusano as the default projected starter. Brett Sullivan is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. San Diego recently added Martín Maldonado on a minor league contract. He hit .119 in 48 games for the White Sox last season. Chicago released him in July.

The 34-year-old Vázquez would provide a significant defensive upgrade over Campusano. While he hasn’t produced at the plate in Minnesota, he was a league average hitter (.274/.315/.399) between the Red Sox and Astros back in 2022. There’s more hope for getting something offensively from Vázquez than there would be if they select Maldonado’s contract.

San Diego would not take on Vázquez’s entire salary. He’s comparable to Jacob Stallings ($2.5MM) and Austin Hedges ($4MM), each of whom signed cheap one-year deals as free agents this offseason. The Padres could push for Minnesota to eat at least half the money to facilitate a trade. Hayes and Lin write that the Twins are reluctant to pay down too much of the deal. Their primary motivation of trading Vázquez would be salary relief. They’d also perhaps need to earmark a couple million dollars for a veteran to back up Jeffers (e.g. Elias Díaz, Yasmani Grandal). The other catchers on their 40-man roster — Cartaya and Jair Camargo — have five combined games of MLB experience.

Minnesota is looking for a first baseman who can replace Carlos Santana. They’re seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder as well. Beyond Vázquez, Chris Paddack ($7.5MM) stands as their clearest trade candidate to create a bit of payroll room. To be clear, there’s no suggestion that the Padres have interest in reacquiring Paddack. Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Ty France are among the unsigned first basemen. Mark Canha, Austin Hays and Randal Grichuk are a few righty-swinging outfielders still on the open market.

In addition to their catching pursuit, San Diego needs back-end rotation help and a replacement for Jurickson Profar in left field. They’re unlikely to achieve all of that without shedding salary in a trade of their own. Dylan Cease is their biggest trade chip. He’ll make $13.75MM in his final year of arbitration. Dealing him would be a huge hit to an already thin rotation, but they’d net MLB help in return while creating a decent chunk of short-term payroll space.

The Athletic reports that the Twins are among a number of teams that have shown interest in Cease. Vázquez obviously would not be a key piece in a trade of that magnitude, though he could be included as an ancillary part of a much larger package. As a comparison, Higashioka was probably viewed as the fifth-most valuable player in San Diego’s return from the Yankees for Juan Soto at the time of that trade.

Guardians Sign Paul Sewald

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The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve signed free agent reliever Paul Sewald to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2026 season. He’s represented by ISE Baseball. The righty is reportedly guaranteed $7MM on the deal, which will be paid out in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, a $5MM salary, and a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. Sewald can also earn an extra $100K for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 relief appearances in 2025, giving him the opportunity to earn a total of $7.5MM on the deal.

Righty Pedro Avila has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster, per the club announcement. Cleveland also signed right-hander Riley Pint to a minor league deal. The Excel client will be invited him to spring training.

Sewald, 35 in May, is coming off a bit of a frustrating year. He opened the 2024 season on the injured list due to a left oblique strain and missed a bit more than a month, getting reinstated by the Diamondbacks on May 7. Once back on the mound, the results weren’t up to his previous standard, which got him bumped from Arizona’s closing gig in August. He landed back on the IL in September due to neck discomfort and wrapped up the campaign there.

In the end, he tossed 39 2/3 innings on the year, allowing 4.31 earned runs per nine. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were still good numbers but were worse than his previous form. From 2021 to 2023, between the Mariners and Diamondbacks, he threw 189 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA, 33.9% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

The Guardians are seemingly making a bet on a bounceback, which there is some justification for. Most of his struggles last year were during a short period of time where he seemed to be a bit unlucky. In the month of July, he allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings, just before losing the closer’s job. Since he only allowed 19 earned runs all year, that was the majority of them. During that month, he allowed a .469 batting average on balls in play and had a 56.2% strand rate, which are both on the unfortunate side. That’s why his 3.94 SIERA was miles better than his 10.80 ERA that month.

Sewald averaged 91.4 miles per hour on his fastball last year, which was down from being in the 92-93 mph range in the previous three seasons, but it’s possible that his two injuries played a role there. With a bit better health, perhaps the Guards can get more of the 2021-23 Sewald than the ’24 version.

Though betting on Sewald is a perfectly sensible thing to do, it’s a bit of a curious path for the Guards at first glance. Cleveland had the best bullpen in the majors in 2024 and it wasn’t close. Their relief corps had a collective 2.57 ERA in 2024, with the Brewers coming a distant second at 3.11. They traded Nick Sandlin to the Blue Jays as part of the Andrés Giménez deal last month but still have Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and others.

Given that the team doesn’t usually run huge budgets, the most straightforward way for them to allocate their resources this winter would be to upgrade the offense. The Guards hit .238/.307/.395 as a team last year, which was exactly league average. They are going into 2025 with a fairly similar group of position players. They traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and then signed Carlos Santana, a roughly cash-neutral move since Santana’s salary will be fairly close to Naylor’s this year. They subtracted Giménez, who is more of a glove-first player, but now second base projects to go to a fairly unproven player like Juan Brito or Ángel Martínez.

Perhaps the Guardians will line up a trade with one of their other relievers but it’s also possible that they see the value in leaning into their strength by further upgrading the relief corps. Relievers tend to be the most volatile part of a roster these days, with regression and/or injuries entirely possible, so having another experienced arm in the mixes hedges against that.

Avila, 28, has posted some solid but not outstanding results in his career thus far. Between the Padres and Guardians, he has thrown 146 1/3 innings in his career with a 3.51 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.

He exhausted his final option year with the Friars in 2023, which gave him a tenuous hold on a roster spot. He struggled out of the gate last year, which led to him being flipped to Cleveland. He ultimately finished the year with a 3.81 ERA in 82 2/3 innings.

Despite a solid campaign, Avila’s out-of-options status and a crowded Cleveland bullpen were going to make it hard for him to keep a roster spot all year, so he’s been nudged off today. The Guards will now have a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next, whether that’s a trade or a fate on waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any trades would have to come together in the next five days.

Any acquiring team would have to deal with the same lack of options, though a team with a less-elite bullpen might be more able to manage that. Avila’s results have been decent and he still has less than two years of service time, meaning he hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration and could be cheaply controlled for as many as five seasons.

Pint, 27, was taken by the Rockies with the fourth overall pick in 2016. He was a top 100 prospect for a while but struggled badly with control in the minors and decided to retire in 2021. At that point, he had thrown 166 2/3 innings on the farm with a 5.56 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate.

He un-retired in 2022 and posted decent results that year. He threw 45 2/3 innings across multiple levels with a 4.53 ERA, 56.6% ground ball rate and 29.1% strikeout rate, though the walks were still high at 15.6%. The Rockies were encouraged enough to give him a roster spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

He spent most of the past two years as optionable depth for Colorado. He has just 3 2/3 major league innings on his track record, having allowed nine earned runs for an unseemly 22.09 ERA. He has struck out seven opponents but given out eight walks and plunked another two batters. Obviously, the minor league numbers have been better. He had a 3.92 ERA in 41 1/3 innings on the farm last year, striking out 36.3% of batters faced but also giving out walks at a massive 20.7% clip. He was outrighted by the Rockies in August and elected free agency at season’s end.

Pint is obviously still a project but the Guardians have a strong reputation for working with pitchers, so it’s understandable why they’d take a shot on a former top prospect without having to give up a roster spot. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he still has an option remaining and just a few days of service time.

With Sewald now added to the books, RosterResource estimates the club’s total commitments at $96MM for this year. They opened last year at $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. After making the postseason last year, perhaps there’s a payroll bump coming. But on the other hand, the club has no broadcast deal for this year. Their deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, expired last year. MLB is going to be handling the broadcasts this year, an arrangement that is sure to lead to less revenue.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Sewald’s $7MM salary, with Zack Meisel of The Athletic reporting the specific breakdown.

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