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Nori Aoki Reportedly Agrees To Three-Year Deal With NPB’s Yakult Swallows

By Steve Adams | January 30, 2018 at 11:34am CDT

After spending the past six seasons in Major League Baseball, outfielder Nori Aoki is reportedly headed back to Japan. Both the Kyodo News and Japan Times report that the 36-year-old Aoki has agreed to a three-year contract with the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The CAA client’s deal is reported to be worth one billion Yen — or $9.19MM in total over that three-year term.

Aoki split the 2017 season between the Astros, Blue Jays and Mets, hitting a combined .277/.335/.393 with five homers and 10 steals over the course of 374 plate appearances. That marked the lowest total of plate appearances he’d received in a season since coming over from NPB with the Brewers in 2012, though his overall output at the plate was still only slightly below the league average in the estimation of metrics like OPS+ (98) and wRC+ (97).

That said, Aoki was one of many options for MLB teams on a crowded free-agent market for outfielders (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), and heading into his age-36 campaign, he was also one of the older players on that market. As the game increasingly gravitates away from guaranteeing significant commitments to players in their late 30s, it seems likely that Aoki would’ve had to settle for a minor league pact or a low-salary, one-year commitment from a big league team if he wished to continue playing in North America.

Instead, he’ll head back to the organization where he starred from from 2005-11 prior to making the move to Major League Baseball. In parts of eight seasons with Yakult, Aoki posted a hefty .329/.402/.454 batting line with 84 homers and 164 stolen bases. He’ll return as a well-traveled elder statesman on the tail end of his career, hoping to benefit the team both on the field as well as off the field as he shares his experiences with the organization’s younger talent.

Given that the reported contract will run through Aoki’s age-38 season, it seems quite likely that his days in the Majors could be over. If that indeed proves to be the case, then he more than held his own in the big leagues. The remarkably consistent Aoki hit between .277 and .288 in each of his six seasons here, and his on-base percentage never dipped below this past season’s mark of .335. In all, he batted .285/.350/.387 as a Major Leaguer, spending time with the Brewers, Royals (with whom he appeared in the 2014 World Series), Giants, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays and Mets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Kevin Towers Passes Away

By Steve Adams | January 30, 2018 at 10:06am CDT

In a sudden piece of heartbreaking news, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports that former Padres and Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers has passed away at the age of 56. Towers had been diagnosed with anaplastic thyroid cancer back in December 2016.

Prior to his days as one of the game’s most prominent and recognizable executives, Towers broke into professional baseball as a player when he was selected by the Padres in the first round of the 1982 draft. A right-hander who starred at Brigham Young University, Towers would pitch in parts of eight minor league seasons that were slowed by injury before ultimately transitioning to the operations side of the game.

Well-respected for his scouting acumen, Towers parlayed his keen eye for player talent into a position as the Padres’ scouting director before ascending to their GM chair in 1996 — a position he’d occupy all the way through the 2009 season. That remarkable run is one of lengthier stints that any GM has enjoyed atop his organization in recent history.

San Diego won its division in two of Towers’ first three seasons at the helm and advanced to the World Series in 1998 under his watch. The Friars would go on to win the West on two more occasions under Towers’ guidance, taking home consecutive division crowns in the 2005-06 seasons. Never afraid to make a bold trade, Towers was affectionately referred to as the “gunslinger” for much of his career as a general manager.

Upon being dismissed after that 2009 season, Towers spent a year as a special assignment scout with the Yankees before being tabbed as the new general manager of the Diamondbacks. From 2010-14, Towers would hold that role, and it was during his tenure that the D-backs signed face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt to one of the game’s best contracts.

Following his dismissal and replacement by the Dave Stewart/Tony La Russa regime, Towers joined the Reds as a special assistant to GM Dick Williams, specializing in player personnel — a role that he continued to hold even into his battle with cancer.

The immediate outpouring from the media, former players and others in the industry serves as a testament to Towers’ reputation as a venerable ambassador to the game of baseball, as well as to the love and respect that he fostered in more than three decades as a member of the MLB family. Yahoo’s Tim Brown has penned an especially poignant tribute to Towers, encapsulating the magnetic vigor that drew so many to him.

Our deepest condolences to his family, loved ones and the countless men and women both in the industry and the media whose lives he impacted over the course of a 35-year career in professional baseball.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

Royals Re-Sign Alcides Escobar

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2018 at 8:47pm CDT

8:47pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets that Escobar will earn $75K for making 125 plate appearances, and confirms that his incentives will top out at 600 PA. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports adds that the shortstop will earn $75K for every 25 plate appearances after the first 125, up until the 600 mark.

2:13pm: The Royals aren’t completely breaking up their long-term core, as they announced on Monday that they’ve re-signed shortstop Alcides Escobar to a one-year deal for the 2019 season. Escobar, a client of the Legacy Agency, reportedly receives a $2.5MM base salary and can earn another $1.5MM via plate appearance incentives (topping out at 600 PAs).

Escobar, 31, has been among the game’s most durable players over the life of his seven-year tenure with the Royals, appearing in 1105 of the team’s 1134 games in that stretch — including consecutive 162-game seasons in 2016-17 (and a third such effort in 2014). While Escobar has managed just a .262/.293/.348 slash line in his seven seasons with the Royals, he comes with an excellent defensive reputation and ranks sixth among Major League shortstops in Ultimate Zone Rating (+18.5) over the past seven seasons.

For the Royals, the question raised by the re-signing of Escobar centers around the future of Raul Mondesi Jr. The 22-year-old has long been considered one of the organization’s top prospects, and while he’s yet to deliver in a tiny sample of 209 MLB plate appearances, he did slash a healthy .305/.340/.539 with 13 homers and 21 steals through 85 games for Triple-A Omaha in 2017. Obviously, the Royals would like to see more plate discipline out of Mondesi, who walked in just five percent of his Triple-A plate appearances, but there’s plenty to like about the second-generation talent.

Royals GM Dayton Moore told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan last week that, if the deal were to be completed, Escobar would play “a lot” of shortstop. Flanagan notes that Mondesi would either rotate around the diamond or open the season in Triple-A Omaha.

[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals depth chart & Kansas City Royals payroll]

A full-time move to second base doesn’t seem particularly likely for Mondesi, given the presence of Whit Merrifield, though he could see occasional time there, at third base and even in the outfield if moved to a utility role. There was also some chatter earlier this offseason about the possibility of Merrifield being available in trade talks, though there’s been little since that time indicate that the Royals have had anything in the way of serious negotiations with other clubs on the matter. In fact, Kansas City has been surprisingly quiet on the trade front all together, shedding Joakim Soria’s contract and trading Scott Alexander but hanging onto other movable assets (e.g. Kelvin Herrera, Danny Duffy) despite an expectation that they’d embark on a lengthy rebuild.

Clearly, a reunion with Escobar on a small-scale deal doesn’t signal a change of trajectory for the club, so perhaps the hope is that some veterans that underperformed in 2017 (Herrera, Jason Hammel, Brandon Moss) will boost their stock with a solid showing in 2018, thus building stronger interest heading into the non-waiver deadline. Given his excellent glove, solid baserunning skills and now eminently affordable contract, it’s certainly possible that Escobar himself will emerge as a trade commodity for a team looking to bolster its defense this summer.

FanRag’s Jon Heyman first reported that the two sides were in talks. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweeted that the deal was official. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted Escobar’s base salary. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd added details on the incentives package (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A’s Acquire Ryan Buchter, Brandon Moss From Royals For Jesse Hahn, Heath Fillmyer

By Kyle Downing | January 29, 2018 at 6:25pm CDT

The Royals and Athletics have agreed to a four-player swap. Left-hander Ryan Buchter and first base/DH-type Brandon Moss will head to Oakland in the deal, while right-hander Jesse Hahn and minor-league righty Heath Fillmyer are ticketed for Kansas City. The Royals also included $3.25MM in cash as part of the deal. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com was first with the news.

Though Moss is certainly the biggest name of the four, Buchter is actually the prize for the Athletics in this deal. In fact, the inclusion of Moss in the deal is probably more related to financial implications. Indeed, Royals GM Dayton Moore told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that “The economic part of it is very real to us,” which has in turn led to some speculation throughout the industry that the Royals are attempting to clear salary in order to make re-signing Eric Hosmer more feasible. Moore responded to an inquiry from Flanagan on the subject, telling him that it would be “inappropriate” for him to comment on a free agent right now. However, he did add that he’s been “very clear” about what the team’s thoughts are on Hosmer.

Turning away from speculation and rumors and focusing on the here-and-now of the deal, the A’s will fill a bullpen need by getting a much-needed lefty. Prior to this trade, the only southpaw reliever in their projected bullpen was Daniel Coulombe. Buchter will serve as a long-term piece for the budding A’s (perhaps into their next window of contention), as he’s under team control through the end of the 2021 season. The Royals, meanwhile, will add a new potential candidate to their rotation. Per Moore’s conversation with Dodd, Hahn will compete during spring training for a spot in Kansas City’s rotation.

Buchter’s a rare type of pitcher who’s been able to consistently out-perform his peripheral statistics. The soon-to-be 31-year-old has a career 2.85 ERA against a 4.68 xFIP. The latter statistic normalizes a pitcher’s homer/fly ball ratio as a method of estimating a pitcher’s true run-prevention skills, but it doesn’t account for the fact that many of Buchter’s fly balls are actually infield pop-ups, which go for outs nearly 100% of the time. Over the past two seasons combined, Buchter’s 16.7% infield fly ball rate (IFFB) ranks 10th in the majors among qualified relievers. He also ranks 14th during that span with a 26% soft contact rate against.

Buchter is even tougher against lefties, limiting them to a .160/.255/.306 batting line during his MLB career. The late-blooming Buchter spent a whopping eight seasons in the minors before finally making his debut with the Braves in 2014, and was shuffled through the Triple-A affiliates of the Dodgers and Cubs before finally latching on in the majors with the Padres in 2016. Interestingly, the A’s were reportedly competing with the Padres for his services as a MiLB free agent.

As for Moss, 34, he’ll return to the team with which he broke out in 2012. That’s just about the only clarity surrounding his presence in Oakland, however. Athletics GM David Forst has already told him that it’s not clear how he fits on the roster (per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). With young phenom Matt Olson earmarked for the first base job and Khris Davis likely to assume full-time DH duties, the declining Moss doesn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats. His sub-replacement-level 2017 performance (.207/.279/.428) was a far cry from his peak years in Oakland during which he slugged 76 homers and put up a .844 OPS across 1,381 plate appearances.

Hahn’s had a roller coaster career. The right-hander showed great promise early on, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.59 xFIP across 12 starts following his major-league debut with the Padres in 2014. Prior to the 2015 season, he was shipped to Oakland in the Derek Norris trade, and continued to impress with a 3.35 ERA and 52.6% ground ball rate through the first day of July. However, a flexor tendon injury sidelined him for the rest of the season, and although he’s shown flashes of brilliance since, he’s not yet been able to maintain good numbers over the course of a full season. Hahn’s posted a 5.59 ERA with a 6.05 K/9 and 3.57 BB/9 across 23 games (22 starts) across the past two years while battling a number of injuries.

Fillmyer, 23, started 29 games for Oakland’s Double-A affiliate last season while pitching to a 3.49 ERA. MLB Pipeline considered him to be the team’s 18th-best prospect in 2017, noting his quick arm and a fastball that can reach 96MPH with good sinking action. Though his control and command took a step backwards last season, their report suggests that he can become a back-end starter at the MLB level. Fillmyer was selected by the A’s in the fifth round of the 2014 draft.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brewers Sign Lorenzo Cain

By Jeff Todd | January 29, 2018 at 6:10pm CDT

January 29th, 6:10pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports has the details on some incentives in Cain’s contract (Twitter links). The outfielder will reportedly earn $300K every time he makes the All-Star team. He’ll also earn $500K if he’s ever named league MVP, $250K if he finishes second through fifth in the MVP voting, and $125K if he finishes 6th through 10th. Cain can also make an extra $50K by winning the World Series MVP award, and he’ll pocket $25K any time he wins a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, or LCS MVP. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports confirms the incentives, and notes that the Brewers will also reserve a suite for Cain at Miller Park during 20 games each season, while pointing out that the estimated value of Cain’s contract with deferments in mind is actually $78,917,630.

January 26th, 2:48pm: Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Cain will earn $13MM in 2018, $14MM in 2019, $15MM in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $17MM in 2022 (Twitter links). He’ll also receive an additional, deferred payment of $1MM in each of the five years following the contract’s conclusion. The no-trade provision offers complete protection in year one of the deal and limited protection each season thereafter, dropping down to five teams in the final year of the contract. More specifically, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy adds that Cain can block deals to 15 teams in 2019, seven teams in 2020 and five in 2021-22.

12:00pm: In a stunning turn, the Brewers even further bolstered their outfield, announcing on Friday that they’ve signed Lorenzo Cain to a five-year pact that will reportedly guarantee him $80MM. The All Bases Covered client will reportedly pick up no-trade rights as well, with full protection early in the contract and more limited no-trade provisions in its later years.

Cain will join Christian Yelich in a stunningly re-made Milwaukee outfield — opening up new avenues for trades of existing players that could shake the market. The signing also breaks open a moribund free agent signing period, with a premium player scoring a big contract for the first time in weeks.

Entering the day, the Brewers featured Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana in the corners, with a trio of young options — Keon Broxton, Lewis Brinson, and Brett Phillips — up the middle. Now, Brinson is out, Cain and Yelich are in, and the remaining players (excepting, perhaps, Braun) appear to be possible trade chips.

[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]

Milwaukee had a clear need to improve its rotation when the winter started, particularly given uncertainty surrounding righty Jimmy Nelson. The organization has decided first to improve the outfield, though that could all be part of a plan to move other assets for starting pitching. Santana and Phillips could both be hotly pursued assets, with a variety of teams — the Athletics, Braves, and Rays all make some degree of sense on paper — potentially representing suitors with some pitching on offer.

As much as the signing could mean for the trade market, it’s a welcome sign for players anxiously watching a slow-motion free agent period. In MLBTR’s top 50 free agent ranking, we predicted that Cain would secure $70MM over four years, so this represents a strong contract for the excellent but soon-to-be 32-year-old outfielder. The contract is the first this winter that guarantees more than three seasons and more than $60MM. Cain becomes only the second of MLBTR’s ten top-rated free agents who has signed to this point.

It’s equally intriguing to consider the teams that missed out on Cain. Crasnick again has the details, tweeting that the Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, and Indians were involved in the market. While San Francisco was long known to have interest, tempered by its luxury tax considerations, the other clubs are all rather eye-opening pursuers in various regards. Los Angeles has been tough to decipher all winter long as it watches its own payroll. The Cubs have a fairly well-stocked outfield mix but seem to have irons in a variety of fires. And the Indians have signaled they don’t have much more to spend, but were evidently still willing to consider a major win-now move (presumably with other salary-shedding efforts to accompany it).

It seems hard to recall after his years in Kansas City, but Cain was once a Brewer. Indeed, he joined the Milwaukee organization as a 17th-round pick way back in 2004. As Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel notes on Twitter, both Cain and Jeremy Jeffress have returned to the Brewers after being dealt to the Royals in the 2010 Zack Greinke swap.

In the interim, Cain has emerged as a star. He reached his career pinnacle in 2015, turning in elite efforts at the plate, on the bases, and in the field to rack up 6.5 fWAR. After a step back in the ensuing season, which was marred in part by injury, Cain emerged again in 2017.

While initial reports connecting Cain to Milwaukee this offseason came as somewhat of a surprise, it appears he’s been on their radar since the onset of free agency. “They said from the minute free agency opened that I was on the top of their list,” Cain said in a chat with MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan.. “We just had to work through all the details, and eventually we both got to the numbers we liked.”

Even if Cain’s superstar-level ’15 output isn’t likely to be repeated, the Brewers will hope he can keep up his most recent efforts. Last year, Cain dropped his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.5%, walked at a career-best 8.4%, compiled 15 home runs and 26 steals, and ended with an even .300 batting average. While metrics now grade him more as a good than a great fielder in center, Cain remains a high-quality all-around performer.

Since Cain rejected a qualifying offer from the Royals, draft compensation will result from the signing. As an organization that received revenue sharing and did not go past the competitive balance tax line in 2017, Milwaukee will have to sacrifice its third-highest draft pick. Notably, MLBTR has confirmed that Competitive Balance draft picks are exempt from this type of forfeiture, however, meaning the Brewers will only have to surrender their third-round selection. For the Royals, bidding adieu to Cain — since he signed for more than $50MM — will mean recouping a pick after the end of the first round of the 2018 draft.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported the terms of the deal (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Agree To Terms With Matt Albers

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2018 at 12:02pm CDT

12:02pm: Nicholson-Smith tweets that Albers will have a $2.5MM base salary in each season of the contract, and his incentives begin kicking in with his 35th appearance. He’d max out his incentives by appearing in 65 games in each season of the contract.

11:50am: The Brewers and free agent righty Matt Albers have reached an agreement on a two-year deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Albers, a client of SSG Baseball, will be guaranteed $5MM on the contract and can earn another $1MM each year based on total appearances, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical.

Albers, who turned 35 last week, was the most consistent member of the Nationals’ bullpen in 2017, pitching to a pristine 1.62 ERA with 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 51 percent ground-ball rate through 61 innings of work. It represented a terrific bounce-back campaign for Albers, who’d limped to a 6.31 ERA in 51 1/3 innings with the White Sox in 2016.

There are, it should be noted, some indications that Albers had his share of good fortune in 2017, as well, though. His 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was below the league average and not what one would expect from a pitcher that whiffed better than a batter per inning — a feat he’d achieved in only one season prior to 2017 (with the Red Sox way back in 2011). Albers also benefited from a minuscule .203 BABIP, though while that mark is in for some regression, the extent of said regression may not be as great as one might think at first glance.

Albers posted a hefty 15.9 percent infield-fly rate in 2017, and his batted-ball profile was among the most encouraging of any reliever in the game. Albers allowed a measly 22.8 percent hard-hit rate against him, which was the third-lowest mark in MLB among qualified relievers. He also induced 30.9 soft-contact rate, which was good for the fourth-best in the bigs.

Since establishing himself as a regular big league reliever back in 2009, Albers has been a rather durable asset, appearing in 55+ games in seven of those nine seasons. He was limited to 37 1/3 innings in 2015, though that year was truncated by a broken finger rather than any sort of arm injury. Shoulder trouble kept him out of action for all but 10 innings of the 2014 season, but that’s been the only instance of a notable arm injury keeping him on the shelf for a prolonged period in nearly a decade’s time.

[Related: Updated Milwaukee Brewers depth chart]

Albers won’t factor into the closing mix in Milwaukee, where Corey Knebel is fresh off a breakout season in which he stepped into the spotlight as one of the game’s top strikeout artists. However, the veteran Albers will join lefty Boone Logan as a newly signed addition to manager Craig Counsell’s relief corps, where he’ll pair with Jacob Barnes, Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader to help bridge the gap from the team’s rotation to Knebel at the end of the game.

It’s been an aggressive week for Milwaukee, of course, as GM David Stearns and his staff have also signed Lorenzo Cain and pulled off a blockbuster to acquire Christian Yelich within the past four days alone. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio gave signals over the weekend, too, that the Brew Crew still has the payroll capacity to add a top starting pitcher if Stearns & Co. feel the right deal presents itself.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBPA Raises Revenue Sharing Concerns Regarding Marlins, Pirates

By Steve Adams | January 26, 2018 at 7:23pm CDT

7:23pm: MLB has seemingly thrown some cold water on the situation in issuing the following statement (hat tip to Adam Berry of MLB.com):

“We do not have concerns about the Pirates’ and Marlins’ compliance with the basic agreement provisions regarding the use of revenue sharing proceeds. The Pirates have steadily increased their payroll over the years while at the same time decreasing their revenue sharing. The Marlins’ ownership purchased a team that incurred substantial financial losses the prior two seasons, and even with revenue sharing and significant expense reduction, the team is projected to lose money in 2018. The union has not informed us that it intends to file a grievance against either team.”

5:32pm: Pirates president Frank Coonnelly issued a lengthy statement on the matter, stating that the Pirates are not under investigation (Twitter link via Adam Berry of MLB.com):

“The Pirates are not being investigated by MLB and the Commissioner has no concerns whatsoever with the manner in which the Pirates are investing its revenue sharing receipts into building a winner. The Pirates have and will continue to invest its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to put a winning team on the field As required by the Basic Agreement, we share with MLB and the Union each year the detail as to how our revenue sharing receipts are used to put a winning team on the field. What the detail shows is that while our revenue sharing receipts have decreased for seven consecutive seasons, our Major league payroll has more than doubled over that same period. Indeed, our revenue sharing receipts are now just a fraction of what we spend on Major League payroll, let alone all of the other dollars that we spend on scouting, player development and other baseball investments, several areas in which we are among the League leaders in spending. Thus, the Commissioner is well-equipped to address whatever ’concerns’ the Union now has over the Pirates’ effort to win.”

1:33pm: The Major League Baseball Player’s Association has raised concern with the commissioner’s office regarding the Marlins and Pirates, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan had recently reported that the union was considering the idea of going to commissioner Rob Manfred with their concerns.

The root of the union’s concern is whether the two teams are appropriately reinvesting the money that they receive under the league’s revenue-sharing program, both Jackson and Passan noted in their reports. The MLBPA issued the following statement to Jackson:

“We have raised our concerns regarding both Miami and Pittsburgh with the Commissioner, as is the protocol under the collective bargaining agreement and its revenue sharing provisions. We are waiting to have further dialogue and that will dictate our next steps.”

As Jackson notes, it wouldn’t be the first time that revenue-sharing concerns regarding the Marlins were raised. A similar scenario occurred back in 2010, at which point Miami did (briefly) increase its spending; the Marlins rolled out their first $100MM+ payroll in 2012, the debut season of a taxpayer-funded stadium in Miami, only to conduct a massive firesale the following offseason.

Jackson reports that the Marlins are set to receive roughly $60MM in revenue sharing profits this season and could take home as much as $160MM from the league between that sum, the $50MM BAMTech payout that all 30 clubs are receiving and the national television contract. At present, we have the Marlins projected for a $97MM payroll in 2018, though there are likely still moves on the horizon that would impact that bottom line. The Marlins could very well find an offer to their liking for star catcher J.T. Realmuto, and Jackson also reports that Starlin Castro has asked the team to be traded. (It’d already been reported that he was “hoping” for a trade out of Miami, though this is a more formal declaration of his preference.)

Neither the Marlins or Pirates have signed a free agent to a Major League deal this offseason; instead, the teams have been largely focused on trading away big league assets. Miami has shipped out Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Yelich, shedding more than $40MM of payroll in the process. Even with all of those dealings, the Marlins still haven’t reached their target of a $90MM payroll, though moving Castro (and possibly Realmuto) would get them to said point.

The Pirates, meanwhile, have traded Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen, though their focus on acquiring MLB-level assets and the remaining presence of players like Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco seemingly indicates that they’re not embarking on an aggressive tanking endeavor in the same manner as the Marlins.

Pittsburgh seems like a better candidate to step out into the open market and add a mid-range player or two. Beyond the aforementioned focus on MLB-ready assets is the fact that the Pirates have recently opened the season with payrolls in the $95-100MM range but currently projects to just a bit over $85MM in 2018. Obviously, no one would expect Pittsburgh to be a player for a top-tier free agent, but a modestly priced upgrade for the back of the rotation, the outfield or the bullpen nonetheless seems plausible.

The Commissioner’s Office has not yet released any kind of statement on the matter, though the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that Manfred can impose penalties onto clubs that do not appropriately reallocate their revenue sharing profits. Per the CBA, the commissioner’s office can also:

“…require a Club to submit a plan for its financial performance and competitive effort for the next two years. Such a plan must include a pro forma financial presentation that specifies its attendance, revenues, payroll, player development expenditures, non-player costs, and capital spending. The Commissioner, after consultation with the Players Association, may direct the Club to change aspects of its plan, including the level of competitive effort reflected in the plan, or take other actions as he considers appropriate (including escrow of a portion of a Club’s revenue sharing payments).”

Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich

By Jeff Todd | January 25, 2018 at 5:04pm CDT

The Brewers have announced a blockbuster deal to acquire outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins. Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto make up the return for Miami.

Milwaukee entered the winter with numerous quality young outfield options. Indeed, speculation has centered on the possibility that the organization would deal from its surplus, making this move all the more surprising. On the other hand, the Brewers were relatively unsettled in center field — where Yelich would presumably line up as things stand at present — and were reported recently to have made an offer for the quality young outfielder. The Brew Crew ended up improving an area of strength by sending out two prospects originally acquired via trade (in their recent round of veteran-paring swaps) along with a pair of 2014 draft picks.

What’s most interesting about this swap, perhaps, is that it could set Milwaukee up for yet further moves, perhaps helping to facilitate a move to deepen the organization’s rotation. The organization could still deal other outfielders if it so chooses after parting with Brinson to add Yelich. Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips are among the other players on hand that could be dangled. Interestingly, per Rosenthal (via Twitter), the club will not give up its pursuit of top center fielder Lorenzo Cain despite today’s move; in that scenario, presumably, Domingo Santana could even be dealt. Given that the Brewers also won’t be taking on much in the way of near-term salary in adding Yelich, the team could also still set out onto the open market to find a starter.

Yelich, who only recently turn 26, is guaranteed a manageable $43.25MM over the next four seasons, with a $15MM club option (or $1.25MM buyout) for the 2022 campaign. That’s a bargain rate for a player who has steadily produced at an above-average rate in all areas of the game ever since he cracked the majors in 2013.

In three of the past four seasons, Yelich has racked up exactly 4.5 fWAR. He has done that in different ways, too. Yelich has always hit at an above-average rate, but only once — 2016, when he posted a 132 wRC+ — turned in a truly superlative season at the plate. In 2017, he slashed a productive but hardly world-beating .282/.369/.439 with 18 home runs, but added greater value on the basepaths (a 6.8 BsR grade that ranked sixth in all of baseball). And it was top-notch corner outfield defense that was most noteworthy about Yelich’s performance in 2014.

Perhaps, then, there’s reason still to hope that Yelich can produce even more than he already has in a given campaign. Some also have suggested that his power could still develop, particularly if he spends more time away from Marlins Park. There are a few areas of concern — for instance, Yelich owns a mediocre career .272/.331/.373 batting line against lefties and graded poorly (-6) in center field last year in the view of Defensive Runs Saved. On the whole, though, he’s clearly one of the better young outfielders in baseball.

The price paid reflects the asset acquired here for the Brewers. By consensus, Brinson was the team’s best prospect. Though hardly considered a sure thing, the soon-to-be 24-year-old outfielder — acquired from the Rangers in the Jonathan Lucroy swap — is widely considered one of the 25 or so best pre-MLB assets in baseball. Last year, he slashed a robust .331/.400/.562 with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 340 plate appearances at Triple-A. He’s also considered a top-quality up-the-middle defender. Having briefly touched the bigs for the first time in 2017, Brinson will likely enter camp as the odds-on favorite to start in center for the new-look Marlins.

There’s depth in this prospect package, too. Harrison is likely the second-best asset heading to Miami. He hit on both ends of a promotion from Class A to High-A in 2017, compiling a .272/.350/.481 batting line on the year. Diaz, also a ’14 second-rounder, came to Milwaukee in the Jean Segura trade. He cracked top-100 prospect lists last winter. He ended up scuffling in his first attempt at High-A — .222/.334/.376 with 13 home runs but also 121 strikeouts in 455 plate appearances — but is just 21 and still viewed as a high-quality middle infield prospect. Yamamoto is also a 21-year-old who played last year at High-A. He had an emergent campaign, compiling a 2.51 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 over 111 frames.

Yelich becomes the third excellent outfielder (joining Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna) to depart Miami this winter. The organization has loaded up on interesting young talent and drastically reduced its payroll commitments, but may well not yet be done with the dealmaking. Several higher-priced veterans could still be moved and top remaining assets like J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Justin Bour could still be discussed in trade talks.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the deal (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported the inclusion of Brinson and Diaz (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Yu Darvish

By Jeff Todd | January 24, 2018 at 2:12pm CDT

It has been easy to notice the increased chatter surrounding top free agent pitcher Yu Darvish, but his timeline for signing has largely remained uncertain — as has the likely landing spot. The latest updates seem both to narrow and expand the possibilities:

The Phillies are “checking in” on Darvish, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though he also notes that the club is doing the same with other top free agents. Philadelphia appears to be positioning itself as a potential landing spot for players whose markets haven’t developed as hoped. With loads of money to spend, the team could certainly function as an opportunistic buyer, particularly in its greatest area of evident need — the rotation. Unsurprisingly, Rosenthal says, the team would mostly be interested in relatively shorter-term arrangements. That seems to be consistent with the Phils’ approach already this offseason, which has featured relatively hefty salaries on two or three-year arrangements.
It seems that momentum could now be building toward a decision, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Darvish is “increasingly likely” to reach a deal this week. With just three weeks remaining until Spring Training gets underway, it seems reasonable to expect a break in the long-building free-agent tension. For other starters — and perhaps even some other position players — a deal for Darvish could not only set an important market marker but also free certain organizations to pursue other priorities.
Otherwise, the Twins remain actively engaged in Darvish, Morosi notes, though that has been known for some time now. We last checked in on Minnesota’s interest yesterday, with indications being that the team wasn’t willing to make a market-topping offer. Of course, numerous other teams — in addition to any mystery entrants — are still also reported to be in pursuit. We’ve heard chatter recently of an offer from the Brewers, significant engagement from the Cubs, and ongoing interest from the Rangers and Dodgers. In sum, there’s still little in the way of clarity in terms of how things will play out. But today’s report suggests that organizations could be readying their final push for Darvish, whose representatives at Wasserman are no doubt working to secure the biggest offers possible and sorting through all the other factors that will weigh into the decision.

Giants Sign Austin Jackson

By Jeff Todd | January 23, 2018 at 5:55pm CDT

Jan. 23: Heyman tweets that Jackson will earn $3MM in each year of the deal. His 2019 base salary can rise by $1MM based on the number of plate appearances he tallies in 2018, and his 2019 salary can rise by $1.5MM based on that season’s plate appearance total.

Jan. 22: The Giants have announced the signing of outfielder Austin Jackson, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first reported (via Twitter). It’s said to be a two-year, $6MM guarantee, but the Octagon client can also escalate his 2019 salary by as much as $2.5MM if he meets certain plate appearance-based targets, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic explains on Twitter.

Jackson, who’ll soon turn 31, turned in a nice bounceback campaign in 2017 after three straight seasons of subpar offensive production. Over 318 plate appearances with the Indians, he posted a .318/.387/.482 batting line with seven home runs and three steals.

Though there’s obviously some promise in that output, it comes with a few caveats. On offense, Jackson benefited from a .385 batting average on ball in play that isn’t likely to be repeated. And his is wOBA of .378 widely outpaced his Statcast-based xwOBA of .335. (For what it’s worth, too, he mostly succeeded by dominating left-handed pitching. He has typically carried reverse splits, so it’s somewhat unclear how that ought to be interpreted.)

Importantly, too, Jackson is no longer a top-end asset in the field and on the bases. He has floated in range of average in both areas in recent years, but generally has graded as a slightly below-average fielder for the past several campaigns. It seems reasonable to believe he can still handle center, at least on a part-time basis, but he’ll surely be put to the test at the spacious AT&T Park.

[RELATED: Updated Giants Depth Chart]

There’s plenty of reason to wonder whether Jackson will be capable of coming close to repeating his output from 2017. But the contract seems to be a reasonable one for a player who has had success in both the recent and the more distant past. Certainly, the price is right for the Giants. This move dovetails with the team’s reported preference to fill out a roster without going past the luxury line.

As things stand, Jackson arguably sits atop the San Francisco depth chart in center field. That said, Giants GM Bobby Evans says that Jackson will “provide additional depth at all three outfield positions,” suggesting that the club does not expect to hand him the reins to the regular job in center. (Via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter).

The question, then, turns to what other options the Giants have to round out their outfield mix. Internally, right-handed hitters include Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, and Mac Williamson. While the first two of those players are capable of seeing time in center, they wouldn’t add much functionality beyond what Jackson provides, particularly since the team’s veteran corner outfielders — Hunter Pence and Andrew McCutchen — both hit from the right side. The lefty-swinging, out-of-options Jarrett Parker is another option, up the middle, though his recent output does not inspire much confidence.

So, what options remain for the Giants? If a golden opportunity arises to add a higher-end player, particularly a left-handed hitter, then perhaps a move past the luxury tax line could still occur. Alternatively, as Baggarly notes on Twitter, the club could chase a pre-arb player while staying just shy of the tax, though that’d presumably mean either taking a risk on a less-than-certain asset or giving up good value in return. Free agents like Ben Revere could still be pursued, but anyone achievable at a bargain rate likely won’t be a good enough performer to bump Jackson into reserve duties. Of course, the team also surely hopes that left-handed-hitting prospect Steven Duggar will prove himself ready for a MLB trial in relatively short order. If the team truly believes in him but also wants a more established player to open the season without bypassing the luxury line, it’ll have to get rather creative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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