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Clay Buchholz To Miss 4-6 Months After Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Clay Buchholz underwent surgery to fix a torn flexor pronator mass in his right forearm, the Phillies announced.  CSNNE’s Jared Carrabis reported last night that the Phillies right-hander had decided upon surgery to fix his injury.  Buchholz visited Dr. James Andrews to get a second opinion on his diagnosis earlier this week, and Dr. Andrews performed the procedure earlier today.

Buchholz is expected to be out of action for anywhere from four to six months recovering from the surgery, so Buchholz’s 2017 season is in major jeopardy unless his recovery period hits the low end of that timeframe.  Buchholz was diagnosed with the injury last week, and as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time, several notable pitchers in recent years have faced similar injuries with a rather wide and varied range of DL stints.  Buchholz’s own situation still seems somewhat fluid given the two-month window for his projected time on the disabled list, though Buchholz has a pretty substantial injury history that could factor into his recovery, including a right flexor strain that cut short his 2015 season.

Even if a return is possible before the 2017 campaign is out, obviously this injury is a huge blow to both Buchholz and the Phillies.  After acquiring the right-hander in a December trade with the Red Sox, the Phils were counting on Buchholz for some veteran stability for their rotation and perhaps even a late-career breakout with a change of scenery and a move to the National League.  Buchholz has looked like a front-of-the-rotation arm at some points during his 11-year career while also enduring his share of (partially injury-related) struggles.  The Sox shifted Buchholz to the bullpen last season, though he pitched well after returning to the rotation late in the year.

After just two starts and 7 1/3 innings with the Phillies, Buchholz has an ugly 12.27 ERA.  Looking beyond this season, Buchholz is in scheduled to hit free agency this winter, and another significant injury on his record will impact his chances of landing a multi-year contract.  Buchholz is probably headed for a one-year guarantee at the most, or possibly even a minor league deal loaded with contract incentives.

Righty Zach Eflin has been called up to take Buchholz’s rotation spot, with Eflin scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Mets.

James Kaprielian To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Prized Yankees prospect James Kaprielian is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery next week, per a club announcement. While the news is obviously a disappointment, it was perhaps the anticipated outcome at this stage.

Kaprielian, who was taken 16th overall in the 2015 draft, had already missed time with elbow issues early in his career. The former UCLA righty was limited to just 56 frames (including a fall league placement) in his first two seasons as a pro. When he experienced elbow discomfort again this spring, it was determined that the surgery was required.

There had been at least some hope that Kaprielian could contribute to the Yanks as soon as this year. Despite his limited action over the past two seasons, he impressed when he was on the hill, compiling an overall 2.89 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 since joining the organization.

Instead, Kaprielian will require a layoff that will likely extend into the beginning of the 2018 season. Though the organization will hope that he’ll progress as a pitcher even as he recovers, that extended delay is hardly a positive development. And while Kaprielian won’t be earning MLB service time during his layoff, his future now faces added uncertainty — though it still retains plenty of promise.

Entering the 2017 season, Kaprielian drew strong ratings from most major prospect analysts. Baseball America ranked him fifth in the Yankees organization, while MLB.com placed him just one spot lower on its list. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who rated Kaprielian fourth among the club’s prospects, wrote that the youngster has an arsenal “approaching [that of] a top-of-the-rotation arm,” while noting that his ability to maintain his velocity and stay healthy remained major points in question.

Latest On Shohei Otani

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SUNDAY: On whether he’ll immigrate to the majors in the offseason, Otani told 60 Minutes that “nothing is for certain,” but it doesn’t seem as if the international spending limits in the CBA will deter him. “Personally, I don’t care how much I get paid or how much less I get paid because of this,” Otani stated in regards to the changes in the system. The Fighters, meanwhile, do plan to post Otani, and their manager, Hideki Kuriyama, is fine with that. “For our team, we’re all for him going to the States,” said Kuriyama. “Yeah, as a manager, it’s going to hurt. It’s tough that way. But more than that, I want him to succeed.”

FRIDAY: Japanese superstar Shohei Otani is already familiar to readers of MLBTR; he is generally regarded as the best pitcher in the world who isn’t working in the majors. He’s also a highly productive slugger in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league. And he’s just 22 years old. (For comparison’s sake, both Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka came to the majors in advance of their age-25 seasons.)

It has long been wondered just when he’ll make it over to the majors, but rule changes have conspired to gum up that possible transition. First came the application of a $20MM cap on posting fees, which reduces the incentive for NPB clubs to make players available before their control rights are set to expire. Then, the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season.

Despite those barriers, there are indications now that Otani could nevertheless attempt a move to the majors as soon as next season. As Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated writes, executives with Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, are preparing to lose their all-everything performer after this season. Importantly, per the report, Otani also intends to request potential MLB suitors commit to allowing him both to pitch and to hit.

Notably, also, “multiple sources” suggest to Wertheim that Otani’s still-undetermined representatives may be able to find ways to sweeten any arrangement. Though he’d nominally be forced to slog through MLB’s typical control process, perhaps he would be able to negotiate some sort of provision that enables him to reach the open market before he reaches six years of service. Other international players have been able to negotiate such provisions; Nori Aoki and Yoenis Cespedes come to mind as examples, though neither of those players was subject to the same rules regime as Otani will be.

While the up-front guarantee would be a pittance of what he’d earn on the open market, or even as a typical posted player, that may not prove as much of a barrier as had been thought. In an interview with 60 Minutes that is set to air on Sunday, Otani reputedly states that he hopes to move to the big leagues after the current season, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Wertheim’s piece, which is well worth a full read, details Otani’s background. As he notes, the phenom considered bypassing the NPB altogether to join a big league team. The Fighters landed him, in part, by promising to make him a two-way player. Part of that bargain, the piece suggests, was that the club would not protest when Otani decided it was time to cross the Pacific.

To say the deal worked well for Otani’s current team would be an understatement. Last year, he slashed a ridiculous .322/.416/.588 and swatted 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances while also posting a 1.86 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 140 frames. And by the picture painted by Wertheim, Otani is a model teammate with a modest personality and full dedication to his craft(s).

Just how Otani’s otherworldly Japanese statistics will translate to the majors is open to some debate. He would surely be viewed as a notable potential big leaguer for his bat, but is most prized for his arm. As Wertheim notes, an American League organization would seem to offer the most ready route to fulfilling Otani’s intentions, since he could stride to the plate without being forced to play the field on days he’s not pitching. Whether he’s intent on spending time in the outfield, too, isn’t clear.

Plenty of time will pass before anything is formalized, and much could change in the meantime. Should Otani become available, however, it would likely make for an unprecedented effort by major league organizations to woo him. That’s due not only to his unusual dual capabilities (and wishes), but also his young age and the unique circumstances of the rules limiting what he can be paid. Literally every team in the game would have cause to pursue him vigorously, particularly if the financial commitment is as meager as it seemingly must be.

Braves To Sign Ryan Howard

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The Braves have agreed to a minor-league deal with veteran slugger Ryan Howard, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (Twitter link). He’ll head to extended Spring Training before taking a minor-league assignment. Howard will earn at a palatable $750K annual rate if he makes it to the majors, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

Howard, 37, had a quiet offseason after the Phillies paid him a $10MM buyout rather than picking up their club option following the 2016 campaign. But he’s now headed to a division rival after wrapping up a 13-year run in Philly.

Whether Howard will ever see the majors with Atlanta remains to be seen, of course. He’s not exactly a clear fit for a National League roster that features Freddie Freeman at first base. Perhaps, though, he’ll function as an insurance policy while burnishing his resume should another opportunity arise. It’s also possible that Howard could ultimately take a spot as a bench bat for the Braves.

The market was not kind to lumbering power hitters this winter. With younger, somewhat more defensively capable players signing for far less than expected or even taking minors deals, Howard faced an uphill path to earning a MLB job. Veteran DH Billy Butler has still yet to sign.

Howard certainly still has some pop left in his bat. Last year, he swatted 25 long balls in just 362 plate appearances. He also struck out 31.5% of the time and slashed just .196/.257/.453, though that was driven in part by a meager .205 batting average on balls in play.

That said, Howard did make hard contact 45.9% of the time he did put bat to ball, a level he hadn’t reached since way back in 2009 — his last season as a high-quality regular. Being limited almost exclusively to facing right-handed pitching probably influenced that figure, though. Howard has long been much more successful when hitting with the platoon advantage, with more than .200 OPS points separating his career splits, and it’s hard to imagine him squaring up against southpaws much at all from this point onward.

Rockies Release Jason Motte

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April 5: The Rockies announced today that they’ve released Motte. He’s free to sign with any club and would only cost his new team the pro-rated portion of the league minimum for any time spent in the Majors, with Colorado remaining on the hook for the rest of his salary.

March 31: The Rockies have designated veteran reliever Jason Motte for assignment, the club announced. Colorado has selected the contract of infieler/outfielder Stephen Cardullo, who’ll take the open 40-man spot.

As the club fills out its roster, it evidently decided to go with Cardullo on the bench over Pat Valaika, who was optioned, and veteran minor-league signee Chris Denorfia, who was reassigned to minor-league camp. Cardullo will presumably help to fill in while Ian Desmond is sidelined.

Motte, 34, simply hasn’t performed as the team hoped when it promised him $10MM over two years over the 2015-16 offseason. The former closer missed time early with rotator cuff issues and ended the first year of that contract with a 4.94 ERA and 9.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 over 23 2/3 frames.

While Motte still manage to average a healthy 94 mph with his fastball in 2016, that fell below his typical levels. And things didn’t improve this spring, as he allowed eight earned runs on 14 hits over 8 2/3 innings, recording just five strikeouts against two walks along the way.

Junior Guerra Out At Least Six Weeks With Strained Calf

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4:15pm: Brewers manager Craig Counsell offered a more pessimistic timeline, tweets MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. The Milwaukee skipper said that Guerra will miss a minimum of six weeks and added that Guerra’s calf injury is “significant.” Left-hander Tommy Milone will step into the rotation and start in Guerra’s place on Saturday.

April 4, 3:48pm: Guerra tells Todd Rosiak of the Journal-Sentinel the early prognosis following an MRI calls for an absence of four to six weeks (Twitter link).

April 3: Brewers righty Junior Guerra exited his Opening Day start after suffering a right calf strain running the bases, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (links to Twitter). He will require a stint on the 10-day DL.

It’s not yet clear how severe the injury is, but manager Craig Counsell indicated that he’ll need more than the minimum time away, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets, the skipper says. Indeed, Guerra required crutches after undergoing his preliminary testing and treatment.

Even if it’s a relatively mild injury, it would be impossible to guess at the duration of Guerra’s absence. Milwaukee will surely exercise caution in bringing him back, and the timeline will no doubt be dictated by how he feels. Depending upon how well Guerra is able to maintain his arm strength while the calf heels, he may also require a rehab stint.

All said, there’s little in the way of long-term concern here, but it’s obviously disappointing to lose an Opening Day starter on the first game of the season. Guerra will remain one of the game’s most interest players to watch upon his return, when he’ll seek to continue the form that allowed him to compile 121 2/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball last year as a 31-year-old rookie.

Seth Lugo Diagnosed With Slight UCL Tear

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3:25pm: The Mets have issued a statement on Lugo’s injury, noting that he will be shut down for the next two weeks before beginning a throwing program. “Surgical repair of the UCL is still a possibility, depending on the results of the PRP, rest and throwing program,” the Mets add at the conclusion of the release.

11:39am: Mets righty Seth Lugo has been diagnosed with a “slight” tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow, according to Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). He is, however, not expected to require surgery. Instead, the current plan calls for a platelet-rich plasma injection followed by rest.

While a more significant tear to the UCL would obviously represent much worse news, it’s still a major loss for the Mets. Lugo had figured to represent a top-quality swingman after his excellent work in 2016. Instead, he’ll join Steven Matz on the shelf for at least a significant chunk of the season’s first half.

Lugo, 27, had gone largely without note until breaking through to the majors last year. He ended up providing 64 innings of 2.67 ERA pitching in 17 appearances — eight of them starts — while allowing just 49 base hits to go with 6.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. Despite allowing hard contact at a 38.4% clip, Lugo managed to hold opposing hitters to a .230 batting average on balls in play.

Whether Lugo’s 2016 success is sustainable remains to be seen, but the Mets had hoped to find out by having him on hand to help out. Particularly with Matz also battling injury issues, the club’s depth has taken a hit early on.

Obviously, any UCL injury immediately raises the specter of a Tommy John procedure, but that’s not always the case. For one thing, many pitchers rest and then pitch through sprains (which are themselves slight tears). For another, there are a variety of alternative treatments and procedures currently rising in popularity. Given the preliminary diagnosis that has been reported thus far, it’s impossible to know how long Lugo might be sidelined.

It’s worth noting, too, that it’s not clear whether Lugo has actually suffered a recent injury. As James Wagner of the New York Times notes (Twitter links), it hasn’t yet been determined (if it’s possible to at all) whether Lugo has simply experienced inflammation from a preexisting issue. While the distinction may not matter much for his rehab course, it could conceivably change the way the medical staff assesses his susceptibility to further injury moving forward.

Cardinals Extend Stephen Piscotty

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The Cardinals have formally announced a new long-term pact with another key contributor: outfielder Stephen Piscotty has signed a six-year extension with an option for a seventh season.

Stephen Piscotty | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Piscotty, who is represented by CAA Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $33.5MM on the deal. That includes a $2MM signing bonus, salaries of $1MM in 2017-18, $7MM in 2019-20 and $7.25MM in 2021-22. There’s also a $1MM buyout on a $15MM option for the 2023 season. Furthermore, Piscotty will earn $500K if traded prior to the completion of the 2021 season and $1MM if he is traded thereafter. Performance escalators can boost the value of the option, giving him a chance to top out at $50.5MM over seven years.

The Piscotty contract marks the third notable extension since the end of the 2016 campaign for Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak and his staff. St. Louis has also extended burgeoning ace Carlos Martinez this winter, and franchise icon Yadier Molina wrapped up a three-year contract extension of his own over the weekend.

The 26-year-old Piscotty was the 36th overall selection in the 2012 draft and has blossomed from one of the Redbirds’ top prospects to their everyday right fielder over the past two seasons. In that time, Stanford product has established himself as a well-above-average bat, hitting a combined .282/.348/.467 with 29 home runs through his first 216 MLB games (905 plate appearances).

From a defensive standpoint, Piscotty has been four runs above average in right field per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating to this point in his young career. He’s also demonstrated a bit of versatility, logging 76 innings in center field and 57 at first base over his first two seasons. While he’s probably not going to see much time in center field moving forward — Dexter Fowler is signed to a five-year deal, and left fielder Randal Grichuk would probably slide over in the event of a Fowler injury — the ability to occasionally spot Piscotty there or at first base certainly carries a bit of value for the Cards.

Piscotty has just one year, 76 days of Major League service time, meaning he wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until the completion of the 2018 season and wouldn’t have been a free agent until the 2021-22 offseason. Piscotty falls shy of the current record for a player in the one-plus service class, which is held by Andrelton Simmons at seven years and $58MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). Christian Yelich’s seven-year, $49.57MM pact is tops among all one-plus outfielders. Piscotty falls shy of both of those marks, though he’s also two to three years older than either of those players were when they inked their respective deals.

Today’s extension means that Piscotty can’t become a free agent until the completion of his age-31 season and, if he remains productive, that he likely won’t reach the open market until he is entering his age-33 campaign. That certainly limits his future earning power, though one can hardly fault a 26-year-old that is still five full years from reaching the open market and two years from reaching arbitration for electing to lock in his first eight-figure payday. Piscotty’s deal is the eighth-largest ever signed by a player with one-plus years of service, so while he didn’t establish any new sort of precedent, the deal falls within the range of reasonably plausible outcomes.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the two sides were progressing on a deal (Twitter link). FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the two sides had reached an agreement and also tweeted the guaranteed portion of the contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first suggested the six-year term (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal provided the year-to-year breakdown (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Extend Roberto Perez

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The Indians have signed catcher Roberto Perez to a four-year extension worth a guaranteed $9MM, reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter links). The deal includes club options for the 2021 and ’22 seasons. A client of MDR Sports Management, Perez will make $550K in 2017, $1.5MM in 2018, $2.5MM in 2019 and $3.5MM in 2020. The options are for $5.5MM and $7MM, respectively, and come with $450K buyouts.

Roberto Perez

Cleveland has made a habit of extending players in recent years, having reached deals with Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer and Josh Tomlin. Gomes, who shares the catcher position with Perez, is controllable through the 2021 campaign, and the club has a top behind-the-plate prospect on the way in Francisco Mejia, as Bastian notes (Twitter link).

The 26-year-old Perez, who would have been eligible for arbitration next winter, is now potentially in position to remain with the Indians through his age-31 season. The Puerto Rico native joined the Indians as a 33th-round pick in 2008 and made his major league debut in 2014. Since then, Perez has hit .220/.318/.355 in 505 plate appearances, though a .183/.285/.294 showing last season weighs down his overall line. Perez’s walk and strikeout rates (12.5 percent and 23.9 percent, respectively) were in line with career norms last season, but his hard contact dropped and his infield fly rate rose, helping lead to a .229 batting average on balls in play and a lack of production.

Despite his offensive struggles in 2016, Perez managed to provide value behind the plate, where he graded as one of Baseball Prospectus’ best pitch-framing catchers. That has typically been the case for Perez, who also threw out an incredible 50 percent of would-be base stealers and earned plus marks as a blocker last year. Thus far in his career, Perez has halted 43 percent of attempted base thieves. Given his defensive brilliance, it’s no surprise that the Tribe jumped at the chance to lock Perez up through his prime to a bargain deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Release Melvin Upton Jr., Designate Mike Bolsinger

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The Blue Jays have released outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. and designated right-hander Mike Bolsinger for assignment, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (Twitter link). The team has also placed closer Roberto Osuna on the 10-day disabled list. Meanwhile, infielder Ryan Goins, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and righties Ryan Tepera and Dominic Leone have earned roster spots.

The fact that Toronto has moved on from Upton is no surprise, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported Saturday that he wouldn’t crack the club’s 25-man roster. The Blue Jays had been working to trade Upton, whom they acquired in a deal with the Padres last summer, but weren’t able to find a taker, leading to his release. This is certainly a fall from grace for the 32-year-old Upton, who looked like a good bet to serve as a platoon left fielder with Ezequiel Carrera at the outset of camp. But a rough spring training and, more importantly, a .196/.261/.318 showing in 165 PAs with the Blue Jays led the club to bail on him.

Upton will make $16.45MM this season, the final year of the $75.5MM deal he signed with the Braves in 2012, but the Padres are on the hook for most of that. San Diego ate all but $5MM of the remaining $22MM left on Upton’s contract when it traded him. Upton was a useful player as a member of the Padres, with whom he slashed .257/.313/.435 with 21 home runs and 29 steals in 602 PAs and earned positive marks in the field (nine Defensive Runs Saved, 2.9 Ultimate Zone Rating). Not far removed from that production, he could catch on elsewhere as a low-cost option for an outfielder-needy team.

The 29-year-old Bolsinger came to the Blue Jays from the Dodgers last summer in a one-for-one swap involving righty Jesse Chavez. Bolsinger didn’t reach the majors with Toronto, instead throwing 25 1/3 innings with Triple-A Buffalo. He amassed 189 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers from 2014-16, almost exclusively from the rotation (37 appearances, 36 starts), and posted a 4.61 ERA, 8.13 K/9, 3.38 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate.

Osuna, whose DL placement is retroactive to Saturday, is on the shelf thanks to a cervical spasm. The star reliever’s loss, even if it’s brief, should be a notable one for a Toronto club that’s lacking in high-end bullpen weapons. Osuna has been just that during his career, having pitched to a 2.63 ERA and registered 9.84 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9 in 143 2/3 frames over the previous two seasons. The 22-year-old has also combined for 56 saves, 36 of which came last season. Either Jason Grilli, who has plenty of ninth-inning experience, or Joe Biagini will take over the ninth inning in Osuna’s absence, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

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