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Junior Guerra Out At Least Six Weeks With Strained Calf

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 4:15pm CDT

4:15pm: Brewers manager Craig Counsell offered a more pessimistic timeline, tweets MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. The Milwaukee skipper said that Guerra will miss a minimum of six weeks and added that Guerra’s calf injury is “significant.” Left-hander Tommy Milone will step into the rotation and start in Guerra’s place on Saturday.

April 4, 3:48pm: Guerra tells Todd Rosiak of the Journal-Sentinel the early prognosis following an MRI calls for an absence of four to six weeks (Twitter link).

April 3: Brewers righty Junior Guerra exited his Opening Day start after suffering a right calf strain running the bases, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (links to Twitter). He will require a stint on the 10-day DL.

It’s not yet clear how severe the injury is, but manager Craig Counsell indicated that he’ll need more than the minimum time away, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets, the skipper says. Indeed, Guerra required crutches after undergoing his preliminary testing and treatment.

Even if it’s a relatively mild injury, it would be impossible to guess at the duration of Guerra’s absence. Milwaukee will surely exercise caution in bringing him back, and the timeline will no doubt be dictated by how he feels. Depending upon how well Guerra is able to maintain his arm strength while the calf heels, he may also require a rehab stint.

All said, there’s little in the way of long-term concern here, but it’s obviously disappointing to lose an Opening Day starter on the first game of the season. Guerra will remain one of the game’s most interest players to watch upon his return, when he’ll seek to continue the form that allowed him to compile 121 2/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball last year as a 31-year-old rookie.

Seth Lugo Diagnosed With Slight UCL Tear

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 3:25pm CDT

3:25pm: The Mets have issued a statement on Lugo’s injury, noting that he will be shut down for the next two weeks before beginning a throwing program. “Surgical repair of the UCL is still a possibility, depending on the results of the PRP, rest and throwing program,” the Mets add at the conclusion of the release.

11:39am: Mets righty Seth Lugo has been diagnosed with a “slight” tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow, according to Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). He is, however, not expected to require surgery. Instead, the current plan calls for a platelet-rich plasma injection followed by rest.

While a more significant tear to the UCL would obviously represent much worse news, it’s still a major loss for the Mets. Lugo had figured to represent a top-quality swingman after his excellent work in 2016. Instead, he’ll join Steven Matz on the shelf for at least a significant chunk of the season’s first half.

Lugo, 27, had gone largely without note until breaking through to the majors last year. He ended up providing 64 innings of 2.67 ERA pitching in 17 appearances — eight of them starts — while allowing just 49 base hits to go with 6.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. Despite allowing hard contact at a 38.4% clip, Lugo managed to hold opposing hitters to a .230 batting average on balls in play.

Whether Lugo’s 2016 success is sustainable remains to be seen, but the Mets had hoped to find out by having him on hand to help out. Particularly with Matz also battling injury issues, the club’s depth has taken a hit early on.

Obviously, any UCL injury immediately raises the specter of a Tommy John procedure, but that’s not always the case. For one thing, many pitchers rest and then pitch through sprains (which are themselves slight tears). For another, there are a variety of alternative treatments and procedures currently rising in popularity. Given the preliminary diagnosis that has been reported thus far, it’s impossible to know how long Lugo might be sidelined.

It’s worth noting, too, that it’s not clear whether Lugo has actually suffered a recent injury. As James Wagner of the New York Times notes (Twitter links), it hasn’t yet been determined (if it’s possible to at all) whether Lugo has simply experienced inflammation from a preexisting issue. While the distinction may not matter much for his rehab course, it could conceivably change the way the medical staff assesses his susceptibility to further injury moving forward.

Cardinals Extend Stephen Piscotty

By Steve Adams | April 3, 2017 at 1:00pm CDT

The Cardinals have formally announced a new long-term pact with another key contributor: outfielder Stephen Piscotty has signed a six-year extension with an option for a seventh season.

Piscotty, who is represented by CAA Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $33.5MM on the deal. That includes a $2MM signing bonus, salaries of $1MM in 2017-18, $7MM in 2019-20 and $7.25MM in 2021-22. There’s also a $1MM buyout on a $15MM option for the 2023 season. Furthermore, Piscotty will earn $500K if traded prior to the completion of the 2021 season and $1MM if he is traded thereafter. Performance escalators can boost the value of the option, giving him a chance to top out at $50.5MM over seven years.

The Piscotty contract marks the third notable extension since the end of the 2016 campaign for Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak and his staff. St. Louis has also extended burgeoning ace Carlos Martinez this winter, and franchise icon Yadier Molina wrapped up a three-year contract extension of his own over the weekend.

The 26-year-old Piscotty was the 36th overall selection in the 2012 draft and has blossomed from one of the Redbirds’ top prospects to their everyday right fielder over the past two seasons. In that time, Stanford product has established himself as a well-above-average bat, hitting a combined .282/.348/.467 with 29 home runs through his first 216 MLB games (905 plate appearances).

From a defensive standpoint, Piscotty has been four runs above average in right field per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating to this point in his young career. He’s also demonstrated a bit of versatility, logging 76 innings in center field and 57 at first base over his first two seasons. While he’s probably not going to see much time in center field moving forward — Dexter Fowler is signed to a five-year deal, and left fielder Randal Grichuk would probably slide over in the event of a Fowler injury — the ability to occasionally spot Piscotty there or at first base certainly carries a bit of value for the Cards.

Piscotty has just one year, 76 days of Major League service time, meaning he wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until the completion of the 2018 season and wouldn’t have been a free agent until the 2021-22 offseason. Piscotty falls shy of the current record for a player in the one-plus service class, which is held by Andrelton Simmons at seven years and $58MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). Christian Yelich’s seven-year, $49.57MM pact is tops among all one-plus outfielders. Piscotty falls shy of both of those marks, though he’s also two to three years older than either of those players were when they inked their respective deals.

Today’s extension means that Piscotty can’t become a free agent until the completion of his age-31 season and, if he remains productive, that he likely won’t reach the open market until he is entering his age-33 campaign. That certainly limits his future earning power, though one can hardly fault a 26-year-old that is still five full years from reaching the open market and two years from reaching arbitration for electing to lock in his first eight-figure payday. Piscotty’s deal is the eighth-largest ever signed by a player with one-plus years of service, so while he didn’t establish any new sort of precedent, the deal falls within the range of reasonably plausible outcomes.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the two sides were progressing on a deal (Twitter link). FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the two sides had reached an agreement and also tweeted the guaranteed portion of the contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first suggested the six-year term (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal provided the year-to-year breakdown (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Extend Roberto Perez

By Connor Byrne | April 2, 2017 at 12:04pm CDT

The Indians have signed catcher Roberto Perez to a four-year extension worth a guaranteed $9MM, reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter links). The deal includes club options for the 2021 and ’22 seasons. A client of MDR Sports Management, Perez will make $550K in 2017, $1.5MM in 2018, $2.5MM in 2019 and $3.5MM in 2020. The options are for $5.5MM and $7MM, respectively, and come with $450K buyouts.

Cleveland has made a habit of extending players in recent years, having reached deals with Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer and Josh Tomlin. Gomes, who shares the catcher position with Perez, is controllable through the 2021 campaign, and the club has a top behind-the-plate prospect on the way in Francisco Mejia, as Bastian notes (Twitter link).

The 26-year-old Perez, who would have been eligible for arbitration next winter, is now potentially in position to remain with the Indians through his age-31 season. The Puerto Rico native joined the Indians as a 33th-round pick in 2008 and made his major league debut in 2014. Since then, Perez has hit .220/.318/.355 in 505 plate appearances, though a .183/.285/.294 showing last season weighs down his overall line. Perez’s walk and strikeout rates (12.5 percent and 23.9 percent, respectively) were in line with career norms last season, but his hard contact dropped and his infield fly rate rose, helping lead to a .229 batting average on balls in play and a lack of production.

Despite his offensive struggles in 2016, Perez managed to provide value behind the plate, where he graded as one of Baseball Prospectus’ best pitch-framing catchers. That has typically been the case for Perez, who also threw out an incredible 50 percent of would-be base stealers and earned plus marks as a blocker last year. Thus far in his career, Perez has halted 43 percent of attempted base thieves. Given his defensive brilliance, it’s no surprise that the Tribe jumped at the chance to lock Perez up through his prime to a bargain deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Release Melvin Upton Jr., Designate Mike Bolsinger

By Connor Byrne | April 2, 2017 at 11:05am CDT

The Blue Jays have released outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. and designated right-hander Mike Bolsinger for assignment, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (Twitter link). The team has also placed closer Roberto Osuna on the 10-day disabled list. Meanwhile, infielder Ryan Goins, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and righties Ryan Tepera and Dominic Leone have earned roster spots.

The fact that Toronto has moved on from Upton is no surprise, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported Saturday that he wouldn’t crack the club’s 25-man roster. The Blue Jays had been working to trade Upton, whom they acquired in a deal with the Padres last summer, but weren’t able to find a taker, leading to his release. This is certainly a fall from grace for the 32-year-old Upton, who looked like a good bet to serve as a platoon left fielder with Ezequiel Carrera at the outset of camp. But a rough spring training and, more importantly, a .196/.261/.318 showing in 165 PAs with the Blue Jays led the club to bail on him.

Upton will make $16.45MM this season, the final year of the $75.5MM deal he signed with the Braves in 2012, but the Padres are on the hook for most of that. San Diego ate all but $5MM of the remaining $22MM left on Upton’s contract when it traded him. Upton was a useful player as a member of the Padres, with whom he slashed .257/.313/.435 with 21 home runs and 29 steals in 602 PAs and earned positive marks in the field (nine Defensive Runs Saved, 2.9 Ultimate Zone Rating). Not far removed from that production, he could catch on elsewhere as a low-cost option for an outfielder-needy team.

The 29-year-old Bolsinger came to the Blue Jays from the Dodgers last summer in a one-for-one swap involving righty Jesse Chavez. Bolsinger didn’t reach the majors with Toronto, instead throwing 25 1/3 innings with Triple-A Buffalo. He amassed 189 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers from 2014-16, almost exclusively from the rotation (37 appearances, 36 starts), and posted a 4.61 ERA, 8.13 K/9, 3.38 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate.

Osuna, whose DL placement is retroactive to Saturday, is on the shelf thanks to a cervical spasm. The star reliever’s loss, even if it’s brief, should be a notable one for a Toronto club that’s lacking in high-end bullpen weapons. Osuna has been just that during his career, having pitched to a 2.63 ERA and registered 9.84 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9 in 143 2/3 frames over the previous two seasons. The 22-year-old has also combined for 56 saves, 36 of which came last season. Either Jason Grilli, who has plenty of ninth-inning experience, or Joe Biagini will take over the ninth inning in Osuna’s absence, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

Cardinals Extend Yadier Molina

By Steve Adams | April 2, 2017 at 10:34am CDT

The Cardinals and catcher Yadier Molina have finalized a three-year extension that will guarantee the seven-time All-Star $60MM, making him the majors’ highest-paid catcher by average annual value. Molina will collect $20MM in each season of the deal, which doesn’t include any deferred money.

St. Louis and Molina were reportedly in serious talks over the duration of Spring Training, with an update last weekend suggesting that the two sides had “made progress” on a deal. Molina is represented by MDR Sports Management.

The new contract will keep the franchise icon in St. Louis through the 2020 campaign rather than allowing him to hit free agency at season’s end. Though he’s set to turn 35 years of age in July, Molina remained a productive backstop in 2016, hitting .307/.360/.427 with eight homers and 38 doubles in 581 plate appearances.

Molina also retained well above-average marks in terms of pitch-framing — a trend that has followed him throughout a career that has seen him earn eight Gold Glove nods, four Platinum Glove Awards and a Silver Slugger. He’s garnered MVP votes on five occasions, including a pair of Top 4 finishes in 2012 and 2013.

Of course, Molina is hardly without his red flags. He’s already 34 years of age and will turn 35 this July, meaning he’ll be 38 years of age for the final three months or so of this contract in 2020. Beyond that, Molina has seen his power numbers dip since his 2011-13 peak.

While some of that could potentially be attributed to a surgeries to repair torn ulnar collateral ligaments in each of his thumbs, and he did demonstrate an uptick in pop last year, there’s no guarantee that he’ll return to his previous levels of power output. And, if his power production trends in the other direction, as it did in 2015, Molina’s limited on-base skills (6.2 percent walk rate since 2013) create the possibility that he could be a decidedly below-average hitter. In fact, dating back to 1900, only nine qualified catchers have turned in even a league-average batting line between their age-35 and age-37 seasons (hat tip: Fangraphs leaderboards).

On the defensive side of the coin, though his framing marks remained excellent, Molina threw out a career-worst 21 percent of attempted base thieves during the 2016 campaign. His career 42 percent caught-stealing rate lends plenty of reason to expect a rebound, but the surprising dip in effectiveness is nonetheless worth monitoring.

Molina joins Buster Posey, Brian McCann and Russell Martin as catchers with average annual values of more than $16MM on their respective contracts. Molina suggested last week that there are “too many” catchers earning more than him. Posey’s $18.56MM annual rate had been tops among backstops, but he’ll slide to second in the wake of the Molina extension.

From a bigger-picture perspective, the move to extend Molina effectively blocks top catching prospect Carson Kelly for another three seasons, which will inevitably lead to some degree of trade speculation surrounding the talented 22-year-old. Kelly rates as a consensus Top 100 prospect, with MLB.com rating him 39th overall in the game. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him 51st on his Top 100 this offseason, while Baseball America tabbed him at No. 65 overall and Baseball Prospectus placed him 81st in the game.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal first reported the two sides were nearing a deal. FanRag’s Jon Heyman first reported an agreement was in place, and he reported the exact value. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the yearly salaries. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Extend Manager John Gibbons

By Jeff Todd | April 1, 2017 at 8:25am CDT

APRIL 1: The deal is now complete, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweets.

MARCH 22, 7:54am: An agreement is in place, with the full deal “basically finished,” according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

MARCH 21, 4:23pm: The extension would cover the 2018 and 2019 seasons, according to the MLB Network Radio Twitter feed. The Jays would also have a club option on Gibbons for 2020.

11:58am: The Blue Jays are “finalizing” a new contract with skipper John Gibbons that will keep him in Toronto for multiple future seasons, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun reported last week on Twitter that the club believed it would likely strike such a deal with the manager.

Gibbons, 54, is in his second stint as the head of the Jays’ field staff. He has delivered three consecutive winning campaigns and guided the club to the postseason in each of the past two seasons, both of which ended with ALCS losses. All said, Gibbons carries a 644-614 record over parts of nine seasons as the Toronto skipper.

When the Jays changed front-office leadership last winter, the organization renegotiated its agreement with Gibbons to eliminate the anti-lame duck provision that had previously governed. Under the earlier deal, the team faced a decision on January 1st of each year. If Gibbons was still in his position at that point, the following year’s option would be picked up automatically and a new option year would arise.

With that new arrangement in place, 2016 figured to represent an important campaign as president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins assessed the organization and Gibbons’s leadership. As it turned out, the skipper drew high praise from Shapiro at the close of the campaign, when it was announced that Gibbons would return. Now, it seems there’ll be a lengthier commitment binding Gibbons to the Jays.

Drew Smyly Out Six To Eight Weeks With Flexor Strain

By Steve Adams | March 31, 2017 at 2:10pm CDT

Mariners left-hander Drew Smyly has been diagnosed with a flexor strain in his left arm and will miss the first six to eight weeks of the regular season, tweets Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. In his place, left-hander Ariel Miranda will step into the Seattle rotation and start the team’s fourth game of the year, Dutton adds.

Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes that Seattle doesn’t think surgery will ultimately be necessary for Smyly, but the left-hander will head out for second and third opinions on the injury from different doctors in order to be sure (Twitter links).

The loss is, obviously, a dreadful blow for the Mariners to suffer so close to Opening Day. Smyly was utterly dominant when pitching for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and was expected to play a significant role in the Mariners’ rotation in 2017.

While he’s coming off a dismal 4.88 ERA in 175 1/3 innings with the Rays last season, Smyly averaged 8.6 strikeouts and just 2.5 walks per nine innings pitched in that time as well. He’s demonstrated improved strikeout and walk rates with Tampa Bay over the past two seasons and, as an extreme fly-ball pitcher moving to the spacious Safeco Field with what looks to be a terrific outfield defense, was viewed by many (myself included) as a potential breakout candidate this year.

With Smyly on the shelf, the Mariners’ rotation will consist of Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Miranda and offseason acquisition Yovani Gallardo (who, like Smyly, is hoping for a rebound campaign in his new environs). Seattle picked up Miranda in the trade that sent Wade Miley to the Orioles last season, and Miranda enjoyed success down the stretch with the M’s (3.88 ERA in 58 innings — albeit with less-encourgaing peripheral stats). As such, they won’t be plugging a complete unknown into the starting five, but Miranda is nonetheless a step down in terms of what can be reasonably expected out of that rotation slot.

Miranda is hardly the only depth option the Mariners have, however. On the contrary, GM Jerry Dipoto made a point of adding a number of starters with big league experience to the 40-man roster this winter, picking up Dillon Overton, Rob Whalen and Chris Heston on the trade market. Should Miranda falter, or should another starter fall to an injury, any of that bunch could conceivably step into the Seattle rotation as well.

Will Smith Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Connor Byrne | March 30, 2017 at 6:41pm CDT

MARCH 30: Smith had his surgery this week, tweets Pavlovic. The initial read of the doctors is now that Smith can be back in the big leagues by next May, Pavlovic adds.

MARCH 24, 1:23pm: Smith will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, per Pavlovic. His doctors are optimistic that he’ll be healthy by the start of next season (Twitter links).

7:08am: Giants left-hander Will Smith will decide Friday whether to undergo Tommy John surgery on his ailing elbow, but it doesn’t appear he’ll avoid the procedure. Both doctors who examined the reliever’s elbow this week have recommended the surgery, manager Bruce Bochy announced Thursday (via Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area).

Smith’s elbow has been an issue since the outset of spring training in late February, when the Giants had to shut him down for a week on account of inflammation. The injury didn’t look serious at the time, but the discomfort returned Monday and is likely to yield surgery. If he does go under the knife, Smith will still accrue service time for the next year-plus that he misses. The 27-year-old is in his second of four arbitration-eligible seasons and will make $2.5MM in 2017.

This would have been the first full season in San Francisco for Smith, whom the Giants acquired from the Brewers at last year’s trade deadline. Playoff-bound San Francisco gave up right-hander Phil Bickford, who’s now suspended but was among Baseball America’s top 50 prospects prior to the deal, and catcher Andrew Susac in an effort to bolster its bullpen. Smith warranted that return thanks to his quality output in Kansas City and Milwaukee from 2013 through the first half of last season, and he also fared nicely in his first action with the Giants. Over an 18 1/3-inning span, he recorded a 2.95 ERA ball with 12.8 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9. All told, Smith logged a 3.13 ERA, 11.91 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 198 2/3 frames over the previous four years.

The loss of Smith will clearly be a significant one for the Giants, whose bullpen was a mediocre group last year that suffered no shortage of late-game meltdowns. Smith would have been San Francisco’s top lefty option in relief this season, but the bullpen will instead have to rely on Josh Osich, Steven Okert and perhaps fifth starter candidate Ty Blach as its primary southpaws.

Rangers Extend Rougned Odor

By Mark Polishuk | March 30, 2017 at 10:18am CDT

MARCH 30, 10:18am: Texas will announce the deal today, per Rangers executive VP of communication John Blake (via Twitter). He also confirmed the six-year term, beginning in 2017, and presence of a single club option.

Jon Heyman of Fan Rag has the full breakdown: Odor receives a $2MM signing bonus, with salaries of $1MM, $3MM, $7.5MM, and $9MM before the would-be free-agent years, which are valued at $12MM apiece.

8:15am: The deal is official, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets. The option year is valued at $13.5MM, with a $3MM buyout.

MARCH 25: The Rangers are “increasingly optimistic” of finalizing a contract extension with second baseman Rougned Odor before Spring Training is over, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The deal “may only be lacking formalities” at this point. Grant reports the deal is six years in length, while FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that Odor will earn $49.5MM and the contract also contains a club option year. Odor is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

The two sides have discussed a long-term deal at various points over the last year, and Odor may have helped his case delivering a 33-homer season in 2016, albeit with a unimpressive on-base percentage (Odor hit .271/.296/.502 over 632 PA). Odor’s defense at second base has also drawn consistently below-average grades. While some deficiencies exist, however, Odor did generate 4.4 fWAR over the last two seasons and he just celebrated his 23rd birthday last month.

Odor is already slated to earn $563, 180 this season in his final year as a pre-arbitration player. Assuming the extension overwrites that salary, then the six-year agreement will cover 2017, Odor’s three arbitration-eligible seasons and his first two free agent years. Should Texas exercise that club option for 2023, that will extend the Rangers’ control through Odor’s third free agent year, though he’d still be just 30 years old when he’d be eligible for the open market.

The deal is only slightly less expensive than the six-year, $52.5MM extension Jason Kipnis signed with the Indians prior to the 2014 season, which was a deal often used as a comparable during Odor’s extension talks (and also negotiated by the Beverly Hills Sports Council). Kipnis signed his deal entering his age-27 season but also had a more solidly established track record as a star player, so those two factors could have weighed out to deliver Odor roughly the same amount of money.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels has long sought to lock up star players (both young and old) throughout his tenure in the Texas front office, with Odor joining the likes of Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Martin Perez, and Derek Holland as notable Rangers who inked long-term deals with the team. The Rangers could face a somewhat more difficult challenge in reaching extensions with two veteran stars (Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy) before the two hit free agency next winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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