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Reds Promote Dick Williams To GM; Jocketty To Serve As President Of Baseball Ops

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4:00pm: Williams signed a three-year deal to serve as GM, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Jocketty will remain with the Reds for two years beyond the 2016 season in an advisory capacity (Twitter link).

1:55pm: The Reds have announced that Dick Williams has been promoted to the general managerial role. Prior GM Walt Jocketty will remain with the club as its president of baseball operations.

Williams, not to be confused with the long-time big league ballplayer of the same name, had served previously as the organization’s assistant GM. In other words, it appears that this move largely tracks other recent promotional trends around the game.

It’s not always easy to determine whether and when title changes come with shifts in job responsibilities, of course, and it remains to be seen what the case will be in Cincinnati. Per the team’s announcement, though, it does appear that the 44-year-old Williams will take on more day-to-day duties even as Jocketty “continue[s] to oversee the department.”

Jocketty indicated in his comments that there would be a tangible change in the organization’s structure. “As is the case with any business,” he said, “it’s critical to have a succession plan in place. Dick has been here for 10 years, he’s learned the business, and we are confident he is ready to take on the GM responsibilities.“

But that handoff won’t be dramatic, at least at first, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports in a series of tweets (links: 1; 2; 3; 4). Jocketty said that he organization has been “grooming” Williams for the role for some time, so much so that it was part of the discussion when he reached an extension with the team a few seasons back. Jocketty said he’ll only be taking and making phone calls for another year and will shift to an advisory role next year.

Notably, Williams is not the only person by that surname on the upper reaches of the Cincinnati front office chart. As this article from the passing of former club owner William J. Williams Sr. indicates, the new GM is intimately related with the organization’s key family.

He’ll be tasked with continuing to help guide the organization through a tough stretch on the ballfield. The Reds have already begun cashing in veteran assets, though the focus has been on moving pending free agents. This winter will pose a difficult test, with opportunities and risks that are magnified by the club’s major commitments (e.g., Joey Votto, Homer Bailey) and lower-middle-class spending capacity.

Judge Rules In Orioles’ Favor In MASN Dispute

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New York Supreme Court Judge Lawrence Marks has ruled in favor of the Orioles and against the Nationals in a long-running dispute relating to the rights fees owed to the latter team by the jointly-owned Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN). (Hat tip to James Wagner of the Washington Post, on Twitter.) MASN, which is controlled and majority-owned by the Orioles, brought the lawsuit to challenge an arbitration award that purported to settle the annual television broadcast fees owed by the network to the Nationals (who own a minority share of MASN).

Today’s ruling vacates that award. If the decision is upheld on appeal, it would require the parties to renegotiate and/or re-arbitrate the rights fees. Importantly, the decision does not address the underlying substantive dispute, let alone decide that in favor of the Orioles/MASN.

The root of the dispute dates back to the dealmaking that paved the way for the Expos-turned-Nationals organization to move to D.C. The Orioles opposed the intrusion on their market, of course, and the compromise ultimately included a deal in which the O’s would maintain a significant ownership percentage of MASN.

Annual fees for the Nationals’ broadcast rights were also covered in the resulting set of contracts, with the first several seasons’ fees pre-established at fairly low rates. Pursuant to the agreement, the annual rights value was to be re-negotiated after 2011 (and every five years thereafter) to arrive at a fair market value of those rights.

When that negotiation failed, the arbitration was initiated, with the Orioles proposing a $34MM payout for 2012 and the Nationals requesting $109MM. The panel hearing the case was a league committee known as the Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee (RSDC). Its members, at the time, were Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, Pirates president Frank Coonelly, and Mets COO Jeff Wilpon. MLB itself, including now-commissioner Rob Manfred, also played a major role in the arbitration.

The panel ultimately decided upon a $53MM rights fee value for the 2012 season, which would rise steadily to $66MM in 2016 (thus covering the five-year period in question). But it held off on formally issuing its decision for about two years, allowing then-commissioner Bud Selig to attempt to work out a compromise, which (per the ruling) would have involved a $1B+ sale of MASN to Comcast (which obviously never occurred). In the meantime, MLB fronted the Nationals the difference between the fees they were receiving from MASN and the value that the panel had determined.

A formal decision was issued on June 30 of last year, and the Orioles instituted the present litigation shortly thereafter. Baltimore challenged a number of aspects of the arbitration, including the involvement of the league at the time and its decision to advance money to the Nationals.

Though overturning an arbitration award is an exceedingly difficult task, the court sided with MASN and the Orioles. Interestingly, though, none of the above factors played into the decision, which focused on the highly deferential standard of review and noted that the agreement had contemplated an “inside baseball” arbitration panel.

The ultimate basis cited by the court in vacating the award — and the issue that will presumably be tested on appeal — is the involvement of the law firm Proskauer Rose LLP. Not only was Proskauer representing the Nationals in the arbitration, the court explained, it was currently representing Major League Baseball in numerous other matters — with four particular attorneys sharing responsibility for both clients. Though MASN and the Orioles repeatedly raised this issue, the panel didn’t take “any step at all” to deal with the potential bias that resulted.

Applying the relevant standard of “evident partiality,” the court determined there was sufficient cause to overturn the decision of the panel. Judge Marks explained (quoting a prior case): “[T]his complete inaction objectively demonstrates an utter lack of concern for fairness of the proceeding that is ’so inconsistent with basic principles of justice’ that the award must be vacated.” 

The actual basis for the ruling is important in several regards. For one, it narrows the issues to be addressed on appeal, though the Orioles could attempt to challenge the judge’s refusal to offer relief on the other grounds argued. (Notably, the court noted in its ruling that the factual setting it considered was without precedent, making this case ripe for consideration in an appellate proceeding.) And it also leaves open the possibility that the parties could return to the same panel that decided the dispute in the first place in a second arbitration.

All said, the ruling represents a significant victory for the Orioles’ side of things — in large part because of the leverage it gives the organization in negotiations. Continued litigation and re-arbitration will, obviously, be quite expensive. And the Nationals now have no argument to demand immediate payment of a vacated award, keeping the cash in Baltimore’s pocket. It’s notable, also, that the original five-year rights fee period is now almost up, meaning the parties will soon need to sort out fees for the 2017-2021 time frame as well.

White Sox Decline Option On Alexei Ramirez

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The White Sox have declined their $10MM club option on shortstop Alexei Ramirez, the team announced. Instead, Chicago will pay him a $1MM buyout.

Ramirez represented one of the most difficult option decisions in this year’s market. The 34-year-old veteran has been a solid contributor for years in Chicago, and the organization has needs all over its infield. Now, Chicago figures to be in the market for a shortstop to help bridge the gap to top prospect Tim Anderson.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club, Ramirez may not be worth the $9MM spread between his value and the option price, but he could earn something close to it as a free agent. He’s coming off of a disappointing, .249/.285/.357 season, with declining defensive metrics. But he had been a consistent two-to-four WAR performer for many seasons before (even while generally carrying slightly below-average batting lines).

Teams looking for additions at short can now consider Ramirez alongside the rest of a market that isn’t exactly bursting with sure things. Ian Desmond will no doubt draw the most interest, with Asdrubal Cabrera also a reasonably young option. Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins figure to be the most appealing options among the older players available.

MLB Trade Rumors Turns 10

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Back in June 2005, I worked at a search engine marketing company in Chicago.  It was about the coolest job a kid fresh out of college could hope to have.  I remember being impressed that it was normal to be on the Internet all day at work, and that people communicated with each other using AOL Instant Messenger.  I had been at the company for about a year and it was a fun and interesting job.  I became friends with a consultant named Jeff, and naturally we chatted about baseball.  I had a lot of ideas, and he suggested I start a blog.  I barely knew what that was, but he had one.

So I fired up a free blog using Blogger.  The next day, I registered my own domain, rotoauthority.com, and soon moved to a more serious platform, TypePad.  RotoAuthority would be where I would write a bunch of fantasy baseball posts.  I was all over the forums promoting my blog, and I remember my future wife waiting patiently as I chalked the name of it all over the quad at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign when we visited our alma mater.  I also had the novel idea of mailing out packages of Big League Chew to baseball reporters I liked, to get RotoAuthority on their radar.  I sent out a bunch of them, to Peter Gammons, Jerry Crasnick, Rob Neyer, and the like.  Years later, Rob told me he chewed the gum immediately.

I mentioned to Jeff that I was thinking about naming my new company The Roto Authority, and he told me I should think bigger, I may want to start a second site at some point.  The 2005 MLB season was over, and I found myself writing a bunch of stuff on RotoAuthority that had only a loose connection to fantasy baseball, including my first-ever Top 50 Free Agents list.

I still thought RotoAuthority was my meal ticket to becoming self-employed, as I used it as a vehicle to sell self-created projection spreadsheets for $9.99.  I was also making a few bucks writing the Waiver Wired column for RotoWorld.  Nonetheless, I was drawn to all the rumors and deals of the 2005-06 MLB offseason, and wanted to write about Bobby Abreu, Billy Wagner, and Juan Pierre without the constraints of fantasy baseball.  So, so many posts about Juan Pierre.  So, ten years ago on this date, I registered a new site, mlbtraderumors.com, and wrote this post about the Yankees potentially pursuing Torii Hunter.  The site’s design looked like this.  Raise your hand if you remember it!

mlbtr-v1

MLB Trade Rumors quickly passed up RotoAuthority in traffic, and started to take up more of my time.  During busy times like the July trade deadline or the Winter Meetings, our posts went viral in an old school way, with links on forums and perhaps carrier pigeons.  It certainly wasn’t succeeding because of my journalistic integrity.  In the early years of MLBTR I was completely naive about the hard work and years of trust-building that goes into getting most baseball scoops.  So, if someone emailed about having the same barber as Octavio Dotel and therefore knowing where he might sign, I believed it and printed it.

A major turning point came during the 2007 Winter Meetings.  Someone pretended to be a Mets beat reporter (one I knew of but had not interacted with) and sent me a whopper of a trade rumor.  He was happy to let me write an exclusive post on MLBTR about the potential three-team deal sending Johan Santana and Bobby Crosby to the Mets, Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey to the A’s, and Dan Haren to the Twins.  I was not present at those Winter Meetings, but this bogus rumor spread like wildfire after I posted it, and of course was shot down.

Shot down is an understatement, actually.  Here are the choice quotes from A’s GM Billy Beane:

“There’s a better chance of me breeding unicorns than there is of that deal happening.” – ESPN

“It’s ridiculous.  All-time most ridiculous. Of all the trade rumors the whole time I’ve been coming here, because of the genesis and how quickly it went around, that was the finest, or the worst, whatever you like.” – San Francisco Chronicle

“I’m on the bike, and (Zaidi) is on the treadmill, and he figures out a way to get on the Internet, and he says, ’Hey look at this.’  Of all the trade rumors in all my career, that one’s the furthest from the truth.” – Contra Costa Times

I was mortified at what I’d done and that it was on Beane’s radar to that degree.  I finally realized that I had to take sourcing much more seriously, and also stop worrying about trying to break stories.

Soon after, I quit my job to focus on MLBTR full-time.  A parade of great writers and friends joined me on our team and helped make the site better each year.  The core of what we do hasn’t really changed since 2008.  We collect, organize, and analyze everything related to MLB transactions in a timely manner, filtering out anything lacking in credibility.  The format and means of sharing the information have changed, but the idea remains the same.

Thank you for indulging my trip down memory lane.  I am forever grateful for the opportunity to run MLBTR for a living, and I don’t intend to stop anytime soon.  I would like to express my gratitude to our many contributors over the years, and to the journalists on the beat.  And of course, thanks to our readers, whether you were here for the black background days or you just discovered the site this week.  Here’s to the next ten years!

Mets, Terry Collins Agree To Extension

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TODAY: The team has announced the deal, making it official.

YESTERDAY, 6:37pm: Collins’ will earn roughly $3MM over the life of the contract, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link).

3:42pm: The Mets have agreed to a two-year contract extension with manager Terry Collins, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Collins’ new contract, which provides the skipper with a raise, will be formally announced tomorrow, Ackert adds. Collins’ previous contract expired at the end of the 2015 season, but he’ll now have job security through the 2017 season. Collins reportedly doesn’t want to manage too much longer but was said to be open to continuing for at least the next two seasons.

The 66-year-old Collins is an oft-mentioned NL Manager of the Year candidate after leading the Mets to a surprising 90-win season and World Series run. He’s been managing the Mets since the 2011 campaign, though the 2015 season marked his first winning campaign. Collins dealt with a number of injuries early in the season plus questions as to when top prospects Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Michael Conforto would be promoted, and he was also tasked with keeping the club focused during the Matt Harvey innings limit saga late in the season.

Collins has a lifetime managerial record of 838-850 and has seen time at the helm with both the Astros and Angels, though the Mets represent his longest stint as a big-league manager. Collins’ job security has been called into security many times over the past few seasons, but New York’s unlikely World Series run and his handling of the pressures of managing in a major market have earned him additional time to attempt to finish what he started in 2015.

Zack Greinke Opts Out Of Contract

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Dodgers righty Zack Greinke has officially opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. The widely-expected move puts him onto the open market as one of the league’s most appealing free agents.

Greinke signed with Los Angeles as a free agent before the 2013 season, locking up a $147MM guarantee over six seasons. That was a nice enough payday as it was, but his representatives at Excel Sports Management were also wise to negotiate a provision allowing the veteran to opt out after the 2015 season. He’ll give up a guarantee of three years and $71MM, but Greinke figures to earn quite a bit more than that on the open market.

While Greinke is now 32 years of age, he’s also coming off of a sublime 2015 campaign. He led the league with a 1.66 ERA over 222 2/3 frames. Greinke retired 8.1 batters per nine via strikeout and induced a 48.0% groundball rate while permitting only 1.6 BB/9 and a league-low 0.844 WHIP.

There were some fortunate elements to Greinke’s campaign, to be sure. He allowed a .228 BABIP, 86.5% strand rate, and 7.3% HR/FB rate, all of which were on the beneficial side as against his career norms. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators did not quite support the incredible run prevention that resulted.

That’s not to take away from Greinke’s accomplishment or his value. He’s long been one of the league’s better pitchers, and always seemed destined to opt out and cash in. But it’s fair to say, too, that he timed his career-best season perfectly.

Padres Exercise Option On Benoit, Decline Barmes’ Option

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7:42pm: Benoit’s option is actually for $7.5MM and carried a $1MM buyout as opposed to $8MM with a $1.5MM buyout, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that the buyout on the option could’ve escalated based on games finished, but the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel, of course, kept that from happening.

6:17pm: The Padres announced (Twitter link) that they’ve exercised their $8MM club option on right-hander Joaquin Benoit and declined their $2MM club option on Clint Barmes. Benoit’s option came with a $1.5MM buyout, meaning the decision essentially boiled down to whether or not the club valued him on a one-year, $6.5MM contract. Barmes will be paid a $200K buyout instead of the $2MM value of his option. I explored both situations recently while previewing the Padres’ offseason, noting that these outcomes were likely.

Benoit, 38, posted a stellar 2.34 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings for the Friars in 2015. Detractors will note that both his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction, and his velocity declined a bit, while ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that Benoit’s ERA is due to rise into the mid-3.00s. However, Benoit’s been able to maintain better-than-average marks in BABIP and strand rate, helping him to continually outperform said metrics.

As I noted in the above-linked offseason outlook, by exercising Benoit’s option, the Padres are effectively raising their payroll north of their 2015 Opening Day mark despite the fact that they have quite a bit of work to do this winter. Between Benoit, Matt Kemp, James Shields, Jedd Gyorko, Melvin Upton and Alexi Amarista, the team already has $82.25MM committed to the 2016 payroll. That doesn’t include significant arbitration raises to Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks and league-minimum players to round out the roster, which could bring the total to as much as $112MM.

Barmes, on the other hand, batted .232/.281/.353 in 224 plate appearances with the Padres in 2015. Of course, offense has never been Barmes’ calling card; he’s been best-known for his defensive prowess at shortstop for much of his career. Defensive metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating indicated that the 36-year-old’s glovework took a step backward this year, but his strong track record in that regard should lead to some interest on the free agent market this winter as Barmes prepares for his age-37 season.

Phillies Decline Club Option On Cliff Lee

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As had been expected, the Phillies have declined their club option on lefty Cliff Lee, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports on Twitter. The veteran will receive a $12.5MM buyout on the option, which was valued at $27.5MM.

At one point, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Lee’s option would be exercised, both because of its unusually robust buyout price and his consistent excellence. But Lee has experienced significant left elbow issues, with a tear in his flexor tendon keeping him out of action all year. He decided against surgery in favor of a rehab route, though it’s been a while since we’ve heard an update on his progress.

All in all, there’s little question that the $15MM spread on the option was too steep a price for Philadelphia to pay. It’s not even entirely clear whether Lee will look to return, as there have been suggestions that he’ll instead retire.

In the event that Lee does look for a new contract, he’ll represent an intriguing free agent. After all, there’s good reason to believe a healthy Lee could still be a force, even at 37 years of age.

The 37-year-old southpaw put up 666 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA pitching in the first three years of his deal with Philly. He did drop back to a 3.65 earned run average over the 81 1/3 frames that he managed in 2014. But ERA estimators were still just as enamored of his work, he maintained an excellent 6.00 K:BB rate, and a .358 BABIP-against could explain the run prevention numbers.

Nexen Heroes Post Byung-ho Park

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NOVEMBER 3: Nexen indeed posted Park yesterday, as expected, Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap reports. As explained further below, bids are due this Friday.

By timing the move as they did, Nexen has moved Park up into the front of the free agent period. By comparison, the Kang posting and signing process took place in late December. While that strategy may carry some risk, as teams pursuing significant free agents may prefer not to be bound, it could reflect a hope or expectation that MLB teams will view Park as a major addition around whom their offseason plans could be structured.

OCTOBER 28: The Nexen Heroes have announced that they will post first baseman Byung-ho Park on Monday, November 2nd, as So-jung Park of the Yonhap News Agency reports (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net).

The Korean star is a former teammate of Pirates infielder Jung-ho Kang. Both put up gaudy numbers in the hitter-friendly KBO, but Park has actually been a more consistently stratospheric offensive performer.

In each of the last three seasons, the 29-year-old has registered a 1.000+ OPS. And he’s continued to improve: last season, Park posted career-best numbers in each of the triple-slash categories (.343/.436/.714) and blasted 53 home runs in 622 plate appearances (one year after swatting 52 long balls). There will be questions asked of his strikeouts, though, as Park went down on strikes in about a quarter of his plate appearances in each of the last two seasons.

Park will now test his earning power through the traditional posting system that still governs the flow of players from the KBO to the majors. (A modified set of rules now applies to Japan’s NPB, where there is a $20MM cap on posting fees and the potential for multiple MLB clubs to negotiate with a player.) Major league organizations will participate in a blind bidding process in which the high bidder earns exclusive negotiating rights.

By posting Park on Monday, the bidding window will stay open until 5pm EST on Friday, November 6th. Then, Nexen says, the club will determine whether to take the top offer and announce its decision on Monday, November 9th. At that point, assuming the KBO club moves forward, the winning MLB team will have thirty days to reach agreement with Park (with the posting fee refunded if it cannot).

It’s always tough to predict the international market, but Kang’s huge year in Pittsburgh certainly seems likely to have elevated perceptions of Park’s ability to transition to the majors. (Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune explores that idea in more depth in an interesting piece.) To be fair, players like Eric Thames can look like Barry Bonds playing in Korea — he’s fresh off of a .381/.497/.790, 47 home run campaign — but that doesn’t mean the numbers are without any value. Acquired for just a $5MM posting fee and a four-year, $11MM contract, Kang proved an excellent value after moving to North America. While he obviously didn’t match his monster KBO stat line, he adapted quite well to the majors and put up an excellent .287/.355/.461 batting line.

Park will, of course, have quite a different market. Scouts will have opinions on how his bat will translate, and it will obviously matter that he appears to be limited to first base. But plenty of teams will be intrigued at the possibility of adding a reasonably youthful power hitter at a relatively affordable price. There will be several veteran first basemen available in free agency, but the only premier, younger talent on this year’s market is Chris Davis, who MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts to land a six-year, $144MM contract.

Orioles Intend To Make Qualifying Offer To Matt Wieters

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The Orioles intend to make a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to catcher Matt Wieters, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Olney further notes (Twitter link) that the Braves, on paper, seem to be a good fit with Wieters, given their protected first-round pick and lack of certainty behind the plate. Wieters, of course, played his college ball at Georgia Tech and saw longtime teammate Nick Markakis head from Baltimore to Atlanta on last year’s free agent market.

The Orioles, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of next year’s draft in the event that Wieters rejects the offer and signs with another team. A rival club would have to surrender its top unprotected draft pick (the first 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected) in order to sign Wieters. And, of course, the Orioles are free to pursue Wieters as a free agent even if rejects the offer.

Recent reports have indicated that the Orioles weren’t certain whether or not they’d make the offer to Wieters, but they’ve apparently now made up their minds. The thinking at MLBTR has long been that it’s a logical course of option for the O’s, as a prime-aged catcher that’s represented by one of the more outspoken critics of the QO system Scott Boras, never figured to be the first to accept such an offer. (And if he did, a healthier Wieters at $15.8MM on a one-year deal is probably a good value, anyway.) MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored the scenario in further detail in recent Offseason Outlook on the Orioles.

Wieters, 29, struggled to some extent in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. As MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes explained in Wieters’ free agent profile, elbow tendinitis kept him on the DL to open the season and delayed his season debut until June. Additionally, he only caught on back-to-back days four times this season as he re-acclimated  himself to the rigors of the position. Nonetheless, Wieters’ 31 percent caught-stealing rate was right in line with his career norm and the surprisingly high league average in 2015 (both 32 percent).

At the plate, Wieters was solid, albeit unspectacular, slashing .267/.319/.422 with eight homers in 282 plate appearances. That batting line translates to a park-adjusted OPS of 100 — exactly league average — which is in line with Wieters’ career marks. (He was off to a much better start in 2014 before tearing the UCL in his throwing elbow.) While league-average production isn’t the most exciting concept in the world, it’s extremely valuable when coming from behind the plate; the league-average catcher in 2015, for instance, hit just .232/.295/.383, leaving them about 14 percent below league-average production.

While Boras and his team could theoretically eye something in the Brian McCann/Russell Martin mold for Wieters this winter, Tim predicted that Wieters can land a four-year commitment worth somewhere in the vicinity of $16MM on an annual basis in a weak market where he looks to be the only reasonably young starting option with a track record of success at the Major League level.

Wieters figures to be one of three Baltimore free agents to receive and reject a qualifying offer, with fellow Boras clients Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen serving as much more concrete cases. Other Orioles free agents such as Darren O’Day and Steve Pearce won’t receive the QO, while Gerardo Parra is ineligible to receive one after coming over via trade from the Brewers midseason (though he probably wouldn’t command one anyhow).

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