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Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2015 at 2:46pm CDT

The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Astros Make Qualifying Offer To Colby Rasmus

By Jeff Todd | November 6, 2015 at 2:44pm CDT

The Astros have announced that they made a qualifying offer to outfielder Colby Rasmus. The 29-year-old will have a week to decide whether to take the one-year, $15.8MM offer or instead hit the open market with draft compensation weighing him down.

Rasmus joined Houston on a one-year, $8MM pact last winter and obviously boosted his stock over the course of the season. Working in a semi-regular capacity, he slashed .238/.314/.475 with 25 home runs over 485 plate appearances.

Truth be told, Rasmus wasn’t that bad in 2014 with the Blue Jays. Though his on-base percentage fell below .300, he still contributed plenty of pop and carried an above-average overall batting line. A three-year look-back on Rasmus reveals a cumulative 116 OPS+ and 65 long balls spread over 1,319 plate appearances.

Better still, Rasmus seemingly remains young and mobile enough to play center field. He rated as a roughly average player there after posting poor metrics in an injury-plagued 2014. And both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR felt that Rasmus played a capable left and right field, adding to his versatility.

All told, that blend of youth, power, and defensive capability makes Rasmus seem like a good bet to receive a three or four-year deal as a free agent. (And it doesn’t hurt that he had a monster post-season run.) If the takes that route, though, the need for a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick could hurt his market. It’s certainly possible to imagine him (and other mid-tier free agents) landing with clubs that have already punted their top pick for a bigger fish.

Blue Jays Make Qualifying Offer To Marco Estrada

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2015 at 11:18am CDT

The Blue Jays will make the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Marco Estrada, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). Estrada, like all other free agents to receive the QO, will have one week to accept or decline the offer. Should he reject the offer, any club would have to forfeit its top unprotected draft pick to sign him as a free agent. Additionally, the Blue Jays would net a compensatory pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft.

A qualifying offer for Estrada wasn’t even a consideration heading into the season, especially considering the fact that the 32-year-old opened the year in the bullpen. However, Estrada joined the Toronto rotation in early May and proceeded to deliver the best performance of his career, logging a 3.13 ERA in 180 innings and continuing with an outstanding postseason that saw him surrender just five runs with an 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings.

Estrada will now be faced with an interesting decision. He’s banked a relatively modest $10MM in his career, so the qualifying offer alone could pay him one-and-a-half times his career earnings in just one season. However, Estrada has also never been on a multi-year deal and enjoyed the security that such a pact would afford him, and it’s likely that he’d have received significant multi-year interest without the QO.

The draft pick forfeiture will add to what was already an air of uncertainty surrounding Estrada. Prior to the 2015 season, he’d enjoyed a few quality seasons, but his strikeout and walk rates had trended in the wrong direction — and they did again in 2015 — as he bounced back and forth between the Milwaukee bullpen and rotation. Estrada unquestionably benefited from a minuscule .218 BABIP this season, but it’s also not fair to assume that mark will regress toward the league-average of about .300. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Estrada naturally has a lower BABIP (fly-balls are easier to convert into outs but also beget more home runs) and has maintained a .261 career mark in that regard.

A team that believes it can find a way to restore Estrada’s strikeouts while also maintaining a bit of the improved home-run prevention he displayed in 2015 may well think he’s worth the forfeiture of a draft pick — especially if the team has a protected (or late) first-round pick and/or plays in a spacious ball park. Ultimately, the bet here is that he turns the offer down in search of a long-term pact. It’s also possible that Estrada and the Blue Jays compromise and work out a long-term pact in the coming week as he weighs the decision.

Mariners, Rays Swap Miller, Morrison, Farquhar For Karns

By Jeff Todd | November 5, 2015 at 7:49pm CDT

The Mariners and Rays have announced a three-for-three trade that sends infielder/outfielder Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison, and reliever Danny Farquhar from Seattle to Tampa in exchange for righty Nate Karns, lefty C.J. Riefenhauser, and minor league outfielder Boog Powell.

With the trade, new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has made a striking first major move. The key piece, of course, is the 27-year-old Karns, who put up a solid 147-inning campaign last year, working to a 3.67 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’ll bring ample, cheap control with him to the Mariners, even if he regresses (and/or fails to progress). Evaluative statistics such as SIERA (3.90) were not terribly high on his first complete big league season, though he’d still be quite a productive asset if he pitches at that level. It’s worth noting that Karns was shut down late in the year with a mild forearm strain, though he also obviously passed a medical exam since the trade is now official.

Seattle also gets Riefenhauser, a 25-year-old southpaw. He has yet to do much of use in the big leagues (6.30 ERA in twenty innings), but has put up stellar run prevention numbers in the upper minors.

And Powell is not an inconsequential piece of the deal, either. He had been rated 13th on MLB.com’s list of the best Tampa Bay prospects. That publication credited him for excellent plate discipline and on-base skills, as well as solid defensive versatility across all three outfield positions. Powell, 22, slashed a productive .295/.385/.392 while splitting time evenly between Double-A and Triple-A (though he was better at the lower-level stop).

Prying Karns loose required Dipoto to part with some appealing assets. Miller, a talented 26-year-old, won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season. He had been unable to hold down the everyday shortstop job with the M’s but did product an above-average (when park-adjusted) batting line of .258/.329/.402 last year. He also contributed 11 home runs and 13 steals. Miller has some experience in the outfield (as well as at second and third), and figures to be a versatile piece for Tampa. Defensive metrics are not fond of his work in center field, though they have viewed him as an average (1.9 career UZR) to slightly below-average (-9 career Defensive Runs Saved) fielder at short.

Morrison has had his ups and downs, and didn’t exactly light the world on fire at the plate last year with a .225/.302/.383 slash and 17 home runs over 511 plate appearances. But he has shown more at times, including in 2014, and ought to provide a first base/DH option for the Rays. He is projected by MLBTR to earn $4.1MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Farquhar, 28, is another interesting player. He has shown the ability to put up big strikeout totals out of the pen, racking up double-digit K-per-nine tallies in both 2013 and 2014 and contributing 71 innings of 2.66 ERA ball in the latter of those seasons. But he struggled badly last season, dropping back to 8.5 K/9 while permitting 5.12 earned runs per nine in his 51 frames. Farquhar was more effective in Triple-A, though he tallied 38 innings at that level, making for rather a heavy usage over the course of the year.

For the Mariners, Karns will obviously slot into a rotation that figured to be in need of at least one or two more arms with Hisashi Iwakuma hitting the open market. He fits the profile — young, controllable, power arm — of the pitchers that Dipoto had been busy adding with the Angels. It’s unclear as of yet whether the addition of Karns will impact the team’s efforts to bring back Iwakuma.

Meanwhile, parting with Miller and LoMo takes away two regular contributors from last year’s Seattle roster, though it also frees up the payroll commitment that the latter would have required. The team could go with highly-regarded prospect Ketel Marte and/or the still-young Chris Taylor at short. Slugger Mark Trumbo sits atop the first base depth chart for now, but he’s projected to take home a $9.1MM arb payday before hitting the open market after the season. The resurgent Jesus Montero, who also hits from the right side, represents another option at the position. And it’s still possible to imagine the club exploring the free agent and trade markets for an upgrade.

On the Tampa Bay side of things, Karns was one of several quality young starters on the staff, which can still run out Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, and Erasmo Ramirez. (Ramirez, of course, came to the Rays in yet another trade with the Mariners last winter.) Alex Cobb will eventually re-join that group, which will ultimately be supplemented by other promising pitchers who are rising through the ranks.

Miller joins Logan Forsythe and another former Mariner, Nick Franklin, in the middle infield mix. (While Forsythe thrived last year, Franklin scuffled in the majors — though he put up good numbers during his time at Triple-A.) It’s certainly possible that Miller will step in at short for the departing Asdrubal Cabrera, though Tim Beckham and (eventually) Daniel Robertson could also factor there.

Adding Morrison is certainly an interesting element of this trade. He’s not exactly cheap for the budget-conscious Rays, who are losing DH John Jaso to free agency. But he could be a better value proposition than the team might’ve found on the open market. It’s also possible to imagine him stepping in at first base if the club tries to find a taker for James Loney and some of his $8MM salary.

This was not the first trade for several of the names involved in tonight’s deal. Karns went to the Rays from the Nationals before the 2014 season in exchange for a package that included Jose Lobaton, Felipe Rivero, and Drew Vettleson. That same winter, the Mariners added Morrison from the Marlins in a swap for righty Carter Capps. Powell was a part of last winter’s Ben Zobrist/Yunel Escobar deal. And Riefenhauser has changed hands several times, by way of trade and waiver claim.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alex Gordon Declines Player Option, Will Receive Qualifying Offer

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2015 at 2:44pm CDT

NOV. 5: The Royals announced on Thursday that Gordon, unsurprisingly, will receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer. Gordon is a virtual lock to reject that one-year offer in favor of a multi-year deal on the open market, but the QO ensures that the Royals will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft, should Gordon sign elsewhere. Any team that signs Gordon will have to forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The first 10 picks of next year’s draft are protected.)

NOV. 4: Royals left fielder Alex Gordon has declined his $14MM player option and is now officially a free agent, the team announced today. The 31-year-old Gordon, a client of Excel Sports Management, will now be able to test the open market for the first time in his career.

For now, the Royals have a couple of days of exclusive negotiation rights with Gordon, as teams are granted those exclusive rights for five days following the World Series. It’d be surprising if a contract of this magnitude were able to be hammered out in such a small window, and it’d also be unusual for Gordon to accept an offer without at least gauging his value on the open market, so he seems likely to solicit interest from other clubs beginning Saturday. That means the Royals will at least be able to extend Gordon a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer, which would net the team a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft, should Gordon ultimately sign with another club.

Gordon missed nearly two months with a strained groin this season but enjoyed a characteristically strong overall campaign both at the plate and in the field. The lifetime Royal hit .271/.377.432 with 13 home runs and was seven runs above average in left field despite the layoff, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.

The former No. 3 overall draft pick arrived on the scene with big expectations in 2007, with many hoping Gordon to become the team’s third baseman of the future. His infield work didn’t pan out, and for awhile, his swing didn’t, either. Gordon hit just .229/.319/.365 in 470 plate appearances from 2009-10, leading many to apply the dreaded “bust” label when referencing him. However, Gordon moved to the outfield full-time in 2011 and broke out with an outstanding .303/.376/.502 batting line and 23 homers.

Since that time, Gordon has batted .281/.359/.450 despite his spacious home environs, leading park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ to peg his offense at about 20 percent better than a league-average hitter. Over that incredible stretch, Andrelton Simmons and Jason Heyward are the only players in baseball who have carried more defensive value, according to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved.

With a strong track record at the plate, in the field and on the basepaths, Gordon will be one of the most in-demand free agents this offseason and could command a five-year deal worth roughly $20MM annually. That would shatter the Royals’ franchise record for largest contract, which currently stands at five years and $55MM. While that type of spending is far beyond Kansas City’s typical capacity, one has to wonder if the team would make an exception for Gordon, who has become the face of the Royals franchise and whom fans would undoubtedly like to see in Royals blue for the entirety of his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Aramis Ramirez Announces Retirement From MLB

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2015 at 12:42pm CDT

Veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez has formally announced his retirement from baseball today, as was expected (Ramirez announced prior to the season that this year would be his final in the Majors). Ramirez told Dominican media outlet Grandes en los Deportes (Twitter links 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7 all in Spanish) that his career will come to an end beginning in Spring Training, but he’s going to try to remain in good enough shape to take one more tour through the Dominican Winter League with los Tigres del Licey.

Ramirez also said that his plan is to remain involved in baseball, but he’s not sure entirely in which capacity. He doesn’t see himself as a coach or manager but is open to the idea of doing some front office work, specifically referencing the role Moises Alou recently occupied with the Padres, serving as a special assistant to the team’s player development staff. It’s also unclear as to when Ramirez would have his sights set on that type of work, as one of the key reasons he cited behind his decision to retire was a desire to spend more time with his family after an 18-year Major League career.

The 37-year-old Ramirez signed as an amateur free agent with the Pirates back in 1994 at the age of 16 and quickly earned a reputation as one of the top prospects in the game. Baseball America rated him as the No. 5 prospect in all of the minors prior to the 1998 season when he debuted with the Buccos as a 20-year-old. It took three years of back-and-forth trips between the Majors and minors for Ramirez to break out, but he did so in a huge way in 2001 when he hit .300/.350/.536 with 34 home runs as the Pirates’ everyday third baseman.

From that point forth, Ramirez was a regular player in the Majors. Though he struggled quite a bitin the 2002 season that followed, he rebounded to some extent in 2003 and found himself traded, alongside Kenny Lofton, to the division-rival Cubs, where he would spend nine years of his Major League career. Ramirez was a two-time All-Star with the Cubs and received MVP votes in four of his nine seasons with Chicago. His overall batting line of .294/.356/.531 and average of 27 homers per season with the Cubs set the stage for a free-agent deal with the Brewers that would carry on through this past summer, when Milwaukee traded him back to where it all began — Pittsburgh — in exchange for minor league righty Yhonathan Barrios.

All told, Ramirez will retire from the Major Leagues as a .283/.341/.492 hitter with 386 home runs, 495 doubles, 1098 runs scored and 1417 RBIs. While he was never a great defender at third base, he managed to play the position through his final season and enjoyed some nice years there, often outperforming his reputation as a sub-par defensive player. Fangraphs values Ramirez’s career at 38.3 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference has him at 32.1 WAR. Ramirez’s significant power and ability to handle the hot corner adequately earned him just shy of $148MM over the life of a very strong career that spanned parts of 18 years in the Majors and saw him accumulate 16 years, 111 days of Major League service time.

Whatever is next for Ramirez in his post-playing days, we at MLBTR wish happiness for both him and his family.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Decline Options On Nori Aoki, Marlon Byrd

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2015 at 11:47pm CDT

The Giants have declined their club options over outfielders Nori Aoki and Marlon Byrd, according to tweets from Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News (link) and CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic (link). Aoki’s $5.5MM option will be bought out for $700K, while Byrd’s option did not come with a buyout.

San Francisco is open to re-signing Aoki, Baggarly notes, also adding in a second tweet that Aoki was completely cleared of the concussion symptoms that cut his 2015 season short. Pavlovic quotes Giants GM Bobby Evans as saying that right now, the club’s focus is on “keeping our options open in a number of areas.”

While the Giants can maintain interest in bringing Aoki back into the fold, that strikes me as an unlikely scenario, as it’s difficult to envision Aoki receiving a smaller guarantee than the $5.5MM base rejected by the team. Though the concussion symptoms are cause for concern, Aoki enjoyed a productive season with the Giants, batting .287/.353/.380 with five homers and 14 stolen bases in 93 games (392 plate appearances). Defensive Runs Saved pegged Aoki’s work in left field as roughly average, whereas Ultimate Zone Rating felt he saved between three and four runs with his glove. While that adds up to more of a useful regular than a star outfielder, Aoki certainly produced a good deal of value and would figure to be a candidate for either a multi-year deal or a one-year pact with a bigger guarantee, health permitting.

Admittedly, we saw last winter that the market didn’t necessarily place full value on Aoki’s low-power, high-contact skill set (hence the $4.7MM guarantee with the Giants), and perhaps that will be the case again this year. Even if that’s true to some extent, I’d imagine that the five homers hit by Aoki quieted at least some of the concerns over his dip in power after he homered just once in 132 games with the Royals in 2014.

Plus, the large amounts of success the Royals have experienced by deploying a contact-oriented lineup — of which Aoki was a part in 2014 — would seem to help the 33-year-old’s case. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, Aoki’s 6.4 strikeout rate was easily the lowest in baseball, with Daniel Murphy checking in second-lowest at 7.1 percent. It’s probably not surprising, in light of that stat, to see that Aoki ranked third in contact percentage, connecting in some regard on 91.6 percent of his swings this past season.

In the end, though, Baggarly writes that the Giants simply weren’t comfortable committing to Aoki as their regular left fielder this early in the offseason. Evans explained to Baggarly: “The timing is bad because we have a lot of things to address this winter and a lot of things we want to look at, and it’s about keeping our options open. To predetermine left field today is just premature.” That’s a valid stance. Aoki is a nice player, but it’s not as if he cannot be upgraded upon, and with the team expected to pursue pitching upgrades, all the payroll space they can get is important. I can’t help but wonder if the option could’ve been exercised with the intention of trading Aoki, but the team didn’t have much time to explore that market before making the final call on the option, and Aoki’s concussion probably did make that more difficult.

Byrd, meanwhile, began the year in a huge slump with the Reds and found himself hitting just .169/.188/.273 at the end of April. The 38-year-old turned things around from that point on, however, batting .261/.308/.485 with 21 homers over his final 114 games. Byrd suffered a minor fracture in his wrist early this summer but returned quicker than expected and without a stint on the disabled list. To the surprise of many (myself included), Byrd showed little to no ill effect from the injury and continued producing at a solid clip.

Cincinnati traded Byrd to the Giants in an August waiver deal, receiving minor league right-hander Stephen Johnson in return. While the thought at the time of the acquisition was that Byrd would hold down the fort until Aoki and/or Hunter Pence were healthy enough to step into more regular roles, their injuries kept them on shelf longer than expected, leading to regular playing time for Byrd until the season’s final week.

That led to some drama surrounding the veteran Byrd, whose contract had an $8MM vesting option that came extraordinarily close to triggering. Byrd needed to reach 550 plate appearances in the 2015 season to lock in that $8MM payday, but he ultimately fell six plate appearances shy after the Giants decided not to start him in the final few games of the year. Evans was up-front with both Byrd and the media, explaining that as long as the team had a theoretical shot at the postseason, Byrd would continue to play. However, once the Dodgers eliminated the Giants from playoff contention, the Giants turned to younger options such as Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson in order to get a look at the pair of prospects in game action.

San Francisco was said at the time to be open to bringing Byrd back next season, but I’d imagine that the rather uncomfortable end to the season will lead Byrd to explore his options on the open market, where he should draw plenty of interest as a platoon outfield bat, albeit probably at a guarantee that falls shy of the $8MM value of his option. Byrd fared quite well against left-handed pitching in 2015, as he typically does, posting a strong .271/.324/.476 line against southpaws.

J.P. Howell To Exercise Player Option

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2015 at 11:13pm CDT

Left-hander J.P. Howell will exercise his $6.25MM player option with the Dodgers, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The 32-year-old Legacy Agency client will forgo free agency this offseason in order to return to the L.A. bullpen for a fourth consecutive season.

Howell is coming off an excellent season in the Dodgers’ bullpen, having logged a 1.43 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 60.3 percent ground-ball rate in 44 innings of work. His strong production continued what has been a dominant run since joining the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season, as Howell has compiled a brilliant 1.97 ERA in his 155 innings with Los Angeles.

That strong track track record makes it at least worth wondering if Howell could’ve landed a multi-year deal in a market that is thin on left-handed relievers with lengthy track records of success — Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp were likely his top competition — but it’s also probably fair to assume that he wouldn’t have received as large of an annual salary. And, there’s something to be said for returning to a familiar situation that has led to personal success and three consecutive division titles for the team.

Howell did have his struggles in 2015, specifically when it came to facing right-handed hitters. While he hadn’t dealt with platoon issues in his two prior years with the Dodgers, right-handed hitters knocked Howell around to the tune of a .318/.368/.455 batting line. Perhaps that split played a role in his decision to accept the option, although there’s certainly a case to be made that it was more a function of poor luck than anything skill-related. Right-handed hitters posted a sky-high .368 BABIP against Howell in 2015 that was worlds higher than his career mark of .293.

Howell’s return to Los Angeles means that he’ll again help serve as a bridge to one of the game’s best closers in the form of Kenley Jansen. Exactly which other names will constitute the back end of the Dodger bullpen is unclear, as the team has myriad options in the late innings. Luis Avilan and Ian Thomas serve as left-handed options to potentially complement Howell, while right-handers such as Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Juan Nicasio and Yimi Garcia, among others, could constitute the right-handed setup crew. Of course, given the active nature of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi, it certainly won’t be surprising to see the Dodgers shuffle their relief corps, to some extent, by dealing some of those arms and possibly bringing in external help in order to solidify a bullpen that is deep in options but lacking in proven arms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals Hire Dusty Baker As Manager

By Jeff Todd | November 4, 2015 at 7:15pm CDT

NOV. 4: Baker’s contract is a two-year, $4MM contract that comes along with $3MM worth of incentives, Nightengale now reports (via Twitter).

NOV. 3, 9:48am: Baker will be paid “less than half” of his old salary (reportedly around $3.5MM) with the Reds, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. His contract does, however, contain “substantial incentives.”

7:05am: The Nationals have officially announced the hiring of Dusty Baker to “a multi-year contract.” It will reportedly guarantee two seasons of salary.

While Baker had been considered one of two finalists to take over the Nats dugout, the club was reportedly set to go instead with Bud Black. Indeed, Black and the Nats are said to have agreed to move forward with a relationship before contract negotiations stalled. Black was reportedly shocked at Washington’s first offer, which was for one year and $1.6MM. Washington then increased its offer to two years at a “lowball” salary, but talks never gained traction.

In Baker, 66, the Nationals are getting an amply experienced skipper — as they said they hoped to do in undertaking the search. Baker has previously been in charge of the field operations of the Giants (1993 to 2002), Cubs (2003 to 2006), and Reds (2008 to 2013). With three National League manager of the year awards already in his trophy case, Baker will look to guide D.C. to his first-ever World Series crown as a skipper.

Baker has piloted his teams to an overall record of 1,671 wins against 1,504 losses. He secured division championships at each stop, five in total, and led teams into the post-season seven times. Baker was at the helm of the Giants for their 2002 run to the World Series, which the club dropped in seven games.

Long before he became one of the league’s higher-profile skippers, Baker was an accomplished outfielder in the majors. He played 19 total seasons, spending time with the Braves, Dodgers, Giants, and Athletics while compiling a lifetime .278/.347/.432 batting line with 242 home runs. Baker compiled just under forty wins above replacement in his playing career and appeared in the World Series three times.

“We were looking for a manager to help us achieve our ultimate goal of competing for a World Series championship,” managing owner Ted Lerner said in a prepared statement. “During our broad search process we met with many qualified candidates, and ultimately it was clear that Dusty’s deep experience was the best fit for our ballclub.”

President and GM Mike Rizzo also put his name to a statement in the release. “In getting to know Dusty and identifying what we wanted in the next on-field leader of our team,” he said, “we are excited to have him on board. Dusty’s experience, as a winning player, coach, and manager, is vast and varied. We are excited to bring him to Washington and put his steady demeanor, knowledge and many years in the game to work in our favor. I think I speak for the entire organization when I say I am very much looking forward to working with him.”

While the organization was said to have been impressed with Baker from the start, the very public breakdown with Black marks an ugly start to the offseason. Rizzo and the Nats have had some issues in the dugout in recent years. Jim Rigglemen resigned in the middle of the 2011 season in protest over his lack of an extension. The club had a fairly smooth run with Davey Johnson, though even in his case there was a long delay in reaching a new deal after the breakout 2012 season. And the team’s most recent skipper, Matt Williams, was roundly criticized before being fired at the end of 2015.

The Nats can be hopeful that Baker will help to stabilize things after the organization endured a messy 2015. He is, after all, deeply experienced and comes with a reputation as a first-class players’ manager. Motivating players and managing clubhouse personalities is a key part of the job, of course, and arguably one where Williams failed.

On the other hand, Baker has long been a prime analytical example of in-game decisionmaking problems. As Neil Weinberg wrote near the end of Baker’s tenure in Cincinnati, his lineup construction, bullpen management, and proclivity to bunt all can and have been questioned. And Baker was blamed in many quarters for over-using young arms with the Cubs, though it’s hard to imagine that becoming an issue in D.C., which drew fire for its late-season shutdown of Stephen Strasburg.

It’s not clear yet whether Baker’s approach has evolved as he takes up his fourth big league managerial position. There have been suggestions that he’s worked to learn more about modern analytical thinking, though we’ll need to await his comments and actions to know more. Rizzo has never hired a sabermetric darling as his club’s skipper, though it’s worth wondering whether he and Baker will work to correct some of the late-inning pen usage issues that cropped up this year under Williams.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that Baker would be offered the job last night, and said early this morning that agreement appeared imminent. Nightengale tweeted that it was a two-year deal. The TalkNats.com blog first reported issues in the contract negotiations. Heyman reported that Baker was back in the mix. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (via Twitter), Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter and in this post), and Scott Miller of Bleacher Report (in a tweet) all reported on the details of talks with Black.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Joaquin Benoit, Adam Lind Available In Trade Talks

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2015 at 4:13pm CDT

Though each player just had his option exercised yesterday, Padres right-hander Joaquin Benoit and Brewers first baseman Adam Lind are both available in trade talks right now, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney.

While the news isn’t necessarily unexpected, especially in Lind’s case, it could certainly have an impact on the offseason direction of multiple clubs. A team that acquires Lind in the near future — and it’s worth keeping in mind that he was traded from Toronto to Milwaukee on Nov. 1 last year, making a near-future deal plenty possible — would likely be plugging a hole at first base or designated hitter, thereby removing them from the free agent market at said positions. Clubs in possible need of first base/DH help could include the Pirates, Orioles, Rockies, Mariners, White Sox, Astros and A’s, depending on roster decisions made by each club early in the offseason.

Olney further tweets that catcher Jonathan Lucroy and closer Francisco Rodriguez “are available for trade talks” as well, as new Milwaukee GM David Stearns aims to make his team younger and build for the future. Any of the three Brewers players mentioned by Olney would have value to another team, with Lind controlled for one year at $8MM, Rodriguez owed $7.5MM this coming season (plus a $2MM buyout or $6MM club option for 2017) and Lucroy owed $4MM in 2016 (plus a $5.25MM club option for 2017).

As for Benoit, the Padres exercised a $7.5MM club option over him yesterday rather than paying a $1MM buyout. The 38-year-old is coming off three exceptionally strong seasons split between the Tigers and Padres, having worked to a 1.98 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 41.7 percent ground-ball rate. Although metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA feel that Benoit has overperformed, he’s been able to sustain abnormally low BABIP levels and high strand rates, suggesting that there’s some degree of skill involved in those atypical marks. While there’s been a good deal of talk about the Padres potentially trading Craig Kimbrel this winter, and Benoit then closing for the team next season, it appears that Benoit will be marketed prior to any theoretical Kimbrel talks. A trade of Benoit wouldn’t rule out the possibility of dealing Kimbrel, of course, but moving both would create quite a bit of work for the Padres in the bullpen, as right-hander Shawn Kelley is also up for free agency this winter.

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