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Non-Tender Candidates
More than 200 players are arbitration eligible and unsigned for 2016. Around 50 of those can be considered non-tender candidates. Players who are not tendered contracts become free agents. The deadline for teams to decide is tonight at 11pm central time. Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates. Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered — many are simply bubble players who at least merit consideration for a non-tender and could also find themselves traded. Click here for MLBTR’s projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts. Also, check out our handy non-tender tracker, which will chronicle today’s action and can be filtered by team.
Position Players
Pedro Alvarez
Peter Bourjos
Drew Butera
Chris Carter
Pedro Ciriaco
Collin Cowgill
Ike Davis
Ryan Flaherty
Sam Fuld
Paul Janish
Jose Lobaton
David Lough
Will Middlebrooks
Tyler Moore
Brandon Moss
Nolan Reimold
Ben Revere
Rene Rivera
Hector Sanchez
Michael Saunders
Eric Sogard
Ruben Tejada
Josh Thole
Brett Wallace
Pitchers
Al Alburquerque
Henderson Alvarez
Steve Cishek
Louis Coleman
Ryan Cook
Aaron Crow
Steve Delabar
Felix Doubront
Josh Edgin
Neftali Feliz
Charlie Furbush
Nick Hagadone
Greg Holland
Jeff Locke
Ryan Mattheus
Jenrry Mejia
Mike Minor
Addison Reed
Marc Rzepczynski
Tanner Scheppers
Craig Stammen
Carlos Torres
Jacob Turner
Vance Worley
Astros Shopping Chris Carter, Listening On Jake Marisnick
8:04pm: If the Astros tender a contract to Carter this week, they’ll only do so if they believe they can move him to another team, reports Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Carter’s time with the Astros “is probably done” one way or the other, per Drellich.
1:16pm: The Astros are shopping slugger Chris Carter as the non-tender deadline approaches, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (links to Twitter). Meanwhile, the club is willing at least to “listen” to offers on center fielder Jake Marisnick, who could be used as part of a package for pitching.
We heard earlier today that the Mariners were looking to move Mark Trumbo, and it seems that many of the same clubs could have interest in both players. Both offer thirty home run pop from the right side of the plate — along with lots of swings and misses and iffy on-base abilities.
Houston is focusing its trade efforts on fellow American League teams, per the report. That’s not terribly surprising, given that Carter is known as a terrible outfielder and may not have shown enough consistent production to warrant a regular first base job on a contending club. The lumbering slugger also hasn’t rated well with the glove at first.
If anything, Marisnick offers the opposite profile of Carter. The 24-year-old, who will likely qualify for arbitration next year as a Super Two, hit just .236/.281/.383 in 372 plate appearances last year. But he made up for that by contributing 24 stolen bases and quality defense up the middle, making him about a 2-win player even in part-time duty. Crasnick suggests that the Indians, Mariners, and Giants could potentially fit in a deal.
It’ll be interesting to see how things play out for Houston. The willingness to consider deals for Carter and possibly Marisnick could be related to the team’s somewhat unexpected retention of Colby Rasmus, who occupied an outfield job and $15.8MM of salary by accepting a qualifying offer.
Wilin Rosario Elects Free Agency
Rockies first baseman/catcher Wilin Rosario has elected free agency after clearing outright waivers, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter). As a player with more than three years of service time, Rosario had the right to reject his outright assignment.
Rosario owns a lifetime .273/.306/.473 batting line in parts of five big league seasons. That looks rather impressive at first glance, but represents roughly league-average production overall once his time at Coors Field is weighed in. Last year was Rosario’s worst at the big league level — excluding a short stint as a 22-year-old — as he managed only a 79 OPS+ in his 242 MLB plate appearances.
The 26-year-old was one of several arb-eligible players recently designated for assignment by Colorado. MLBTR projected him to earn $3.2MM through arbitration, and that pay rate obviously proved too steep both for the Rockies and the rest of the league.
It seems likely that Rosario will find a new home, though it remains to be seen whether any other organizations still believe there’s hope for the 26-year-old behind the plate. As a backstop, Rosario’s high-power bat holds quite a bit of appeal. But if he’s limited to first base or DH duties, there’s obviously much less upside.
Tigers Sign Jordan Zimmermann
TODAY, 11:33am: The deal is backloaded, per another Heyman tweet. Zimmermann will take home $18MM apiece in the first two years, then earn $24MM in 2018, and receive $25MM apiece over the contract’s last two campaigns.
7:30am: Zimmermann gets full no-trade protection for three years, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (Twitter links). In the final two years of the contract, Zimmermann will be able to name a ten-team pre-approval list but otherwise block any movement.
Heyman notes that this provision was “key” to getting a contract done. The righty is, of course, a native of Wisconsin, and was drawn by the chance to settle his young family in the broader midwest region without having to worry about being shipped elsewhere.
The contract’s hefty trade protection helps to explain its allure at this still-early stage of the winter. As explained below, there was some cause to believe that Zimmermann could achieve a sixth guaranteed year, but it appears he was willing to part with some pure earning upside to control his destiny (for the most part) over the life of the deal.
YESTERDAY: Having already bolstered their bullpen with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, the Tigers made a move to fortify their rotation on Monday, officially announcing the signing of Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year contract. The Relativity Sports client will reportedly receive $110MM over the life of the contract.
Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated Zimmermann as the seventh best free agent available this winter and predicted that he could net a six-year, $126MM contract. A reliable righty, Zimmermann’s stock fell slightly this season due to a decline in his strike out and whiff rates from 2014. He also reverted to a league average HR/FB ratio, leading to a higher-than-normal 3.66 ERA. The 29-year-old right-hander (30 in May), has a career 3.32 ERA with 7.43 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 in over 1,000 innings. His most recent campaign for the Nationals included similar numbers in 201 innings with the aforementioned regression in home run rate.
Zimmermann was shut down early in 2011, his first year back from Tommy John surgery, as the Nationals sought to build up his innings, but he has been quite durable ever since. In the last four years, Zimmermann has made at least 32 starts each season while compiling 810 1/3 total innings. Though he’s never put up gaudy single-season inning tallies, he is fifth in the game in total starts since the beginning of 2012 and ranks 12th in total frames over that span.
Zimmermann has also performed well in limiting platoon splits. He’s been slightly better against righties historically, of course, but has handle opposite-handed hitters in equivalent manner in most regards. Lefties do draw walks at a higher rate (2.3 vs. 1.4 BB/9), but their overall production has not been markedly greater (.310 vs. .286 wOBA).
There’s a lot to like, but 2015 undoubtedly represented a step back for the righty, and not just in the earned run department. Zimmermann’s 3.66 ERA was by far the highest full-season mark of his career, and his FIP (3.75), xFIP (3.82), and SIERA (3.83) marks all landed a fair sight over his career averages.
Detroit once boasted an elite rotation but after losing Max Scherzer and David Price in recent seasons, they’ve been in need of reinforcements. Additionally, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have become unreliable due to injuries and performance decline. Now, the Tigers figure to have a stronger rotation in 2016 and beyond thanks to the addition of Zimmermann, who becomes the first pitcher to receive a $100MM+ deal after having previously undergone Tommy John surgery. Adam Wainwright set the previous watermark with his five-year, $97.5MM extension signed in 2013.
Zimmermann rejected a qualifying offer from the Nationals, so the Tigers will have to sacrifice a draft pick in order to sign him. The Tigers select ninth overall – a protected pick – so they would surrender their second pick. Likewise, the Nationals will receive a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds of the 2016 draft.
Jon Morosi of FOX Sports first reported that the two sides were in talks. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that there was an agreement in place (on Twitter). Morosi reported the $110MM figure (on Twitter), and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick added that there were no options on the straight five-year pact (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Sox, Chris Young Agree To Two-Year Deal
TODAY: Boston will guarantee Young $13MM over the two years of the deal, Rosenthal tweets. That puts the contract right in line with recent paydays for strong free agent fourth outfielders. The pre-2014 David Murphy contract — two years and $12MM — represents the closest comp.
Young will earn $6.5MM in each year of the deal, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds on Twitter.
YESTERDAY, 5:43pm: Young will receive a two-year guarantee, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
12:29pm: The Red Sox and outfielder Chris Young are in agreement on a multi-year contract, pending a physical, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Young is represented by CAA Sports.
The 32-year-old Young has significantly rebuilt his stock after a dismal showing with the 2014 Mets in which he failed to live up to the club’s one-year, $7.25MM free-agent investment. Young latched on with the Yankees late that offseason and posted an impressive .282/.354/.521 batting line in 79 plate appearances. That showing led to a one-year, $2.5MM contract to return to the Bronx, and Young exceeded expectations on that deal by a fair margin.
In 2015, Young batted a healthy .252/.320/.453 in 356 trips to the plate spread across 140 contests for the Yankees. Young possesses decent pop against right-handed pitching but nearly all of his production comes against lefties at this point. Last season, he logged 175 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage and batted an incredible .327/.397/.575 with seven home runs. As such, he figures to be held to primarily a platoon role in Boston, though he clearly can deliver a good amount of value at the plate in said capacity.
While Young was at one time to be considered a sound defender in center field, he’s more or less limited to the corners now. He can handle center in a pinch — the Yankees gave him 90 innings there in 2015 –but the Red Sox have multiple options on the roster that project as better defenders in center. In fact, all three of the Sox’ projected starters — Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley — are capable of handling center (with Bradley likely to see much of the center-field action next season). Bradley is the only left-handed hitter of the bunch, so Young could slot into the lineup in his place against southpaws, with Betts sliding over to center field on those days.
Young is essentially a dead-pull hitter, which should mesh just fine with the Green Monster at Fenway Park. His signing gives the Red Sox a fourth outfield option and also lessens the potential blow if the Sox are to indeed trade one of Bradley or Castillo, as some have speculated. (The notion of a Betts trade teeters on the brink of unfathomable at this point.) In the event of a trade, the Sox could then pursue free-agent (or trade) upgrades in the outfield or simply platoon Young with the left-handed-hiting Brock Holt, who has more than his fair share of outfield experience.
Boston’s 40-man roster is full at this juncture, so the Sox will have to make a move in order to accommodate Young if and when he passes his physical exam to make the deal official.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Braves Sign Jim Johnson
5:28pm: The deal is for $2.5MM, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets.
5:04pm: The Braves have signed righty Jim Johnson to a one-year deal, the club announced via press release. Johnson, 32, is a client of Moye Sports Associates.
With the move, Atlanta has re-acquired one of the many players it traded away least year. Johnson was a part of the 13-player deadline swap between the Braves and Dodgers that also saw several more controllable assets change hands.
Johnson first joined the Braves on a fairly cheap, one-year deal after enduring a disastrous 2014 campaign. He bounced back nicely, tossing 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball with 6.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.
But things turned south again once Johnson reported to Los Angeles. He surrendered 21 earned runs in just 18 2/3 innings of work for the Dodgers. While he upped his strikeouts (to 8.2 K/9) and held his walk rate to under three free passes per nine, Johnson was done in by an over-.400 BABIP and 1.4 HR/9 rate in L.A.
The Braves will hope that Johnson can once again steer clear of the control problems that ruined his 2014 season while continuing to generate something close to the 58.3% groundball rate he owns for his career. Metrics tend to think his ultimate 4.46 ERA last season was somewhat unlucky. Another feather in his cap: Johnson continues to deliver about a 94 mph average fastball, and even trended up in velocity last year.
Atlanta has long been said to be targeting bullpen upgrades this winter. The team has relatively few sure things in the pen, though it received a promising campaign from Arodys Vizcaino and will eventually bring back the injured Jason Grilli. It’s not immediately clear whether the addition of Johnson means that the club will bow out of the higher-end pen market — where it’s been said to have at least done some window shopping — but Bowman adds on Twitter that “a setup man and another lefty reliever” remain on the organization’s shopping list.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cardinals Sign Brayan Pena To Two-Year Deal
3:37pm: Pena’s $5MM guarantee will be spread out evenly, paying him $2.5MM in each season of the contract, MLBTR has learned.
3:35pm: Pena’s contract guarantees him a total of $5MM, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link).
3:11pm: The Cardinals announced that they have signed catcher Brayan Pena to a two-year contract. Tom Ackerman of KMOX in St. Louis first reported the news shortly before the announcement (Twitter link).
Pena spent the past two seasons with the division-rival Reds, where he batted a combined .263/.313/.339 with five homers in 739 plate appearances. The soon-to-be 34-year-old walked at a 6.6 percent clip and struck out in just 10.2 percent of his plate appearances during his time with the Reds. Pena is a switch-hitter but is markedly better from the left side of the dish.
From a defensive standpoint, Pena has typically thrown out a respectable number of baserunners, though this past season’s uncharacteristic 18 percent caught-stealing rate was the lowest of his career. That dragged his career mark down a bit, to 28 percent, though it should be noted that the pendulum swung the other way in 2014, when Pena prevented an excellent 43 percent of attempted thefts. Framing metrics tell a similar story, as Pena graded out as one of the worst pitch-framers in the league this past season but had previously rated anywhere from average to slightly above-average in his limited time behind the dish. The Cardinals will hope that the 2015 season was an aberration in terms of Pena’s defense, and he’s instead able to replicate the solid, if unspectacular defensive skills he showed prior to the most recent campaign.
This signing figures to supplant the arbitration eligible Tony Cruz as Yadier Molina‘s primary backup for the next two seasons. That makes it likely that Cruz, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1MM next season, will be either traded or non-tendered before this Wednesday’s deadline, as the club probably won’t have interest in carrying three catchers on the roster.
Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest
Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
KBO’s Lotte Giants Post Third Baseman Jae-Gyun Hwang
NOV. 30: Hwang has now officially been posted. Clubs will have until 5:00pm ET on Friday to submit bids for the third baseman.
NOV. 25: Hwang will actually be posted on the 30th, Han Lee of Global Sporting Integration tweets. Lotte is pushing back the date to accommodate the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
NOV. 24: The Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization will post third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang tomorrow, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Major League teams will have one week to submit blind bids on Hwang, and Lotte will then have the right to accept the highest bid or retain Hwang for the 2016 season. Should the team accept a bid, Hwang’s representatives at ACES would have 30 days to negotiate a contract with the winning MLB club.
Hwang, 28, is coming off a breakout year in KBO that saw the right-handed hitter bat .290/.350/.521 with a career-best 26 home runs (plus a solid effort in the Premier 12 Tournament). While some of the uptick in homers is attributable to a recent increase in the number of games in the KBO’s regular season, Hwang’s per-plate-appearance rate still markedly outpaces his previous best. That he won this year’s KBO home run derby is another potential point in favor of his increased power.
Though KBO is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment, Hwang’s output does look to be solid on paper at least. Another factor he has working in his favor is that he’s played in every game dating back to the 2011 season, so his agents will attempt to market him as a durable player in the midst of his physical prime at a time when the domestic free-agent market for third basemen is thin. David Freese represents perhaps the lone option to serve as a regular third baseman, although the trade market bears potential candidates such as Trevor Plouffe, Luis Valbuena, Jed Lowrie and Jedd Gyorko, among others. Hwang is a converted shortstop, but he profiles strictly as a third base option at this point (Those interested in seeing some video footage of Hwang can refer to a pair of recent highlight reels compiled by the folks at Global Sporting Integration).
Hwang will be a true free agent next offseason, which would allow him to pursue a Major League opportunity without the restrictions of the posting system. That figures to add a bit of pressure to the Giants to accept a bid — assuming a reasonable one is submitted — as they’ll be left with no compensation if he enjoys another solid year and jumps to either Major League Baseball or Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball next offseason.
Lotte recently posted outfielder Ah-seop Son, but the 27-year-old didn’t draw a bid from MLB clubs, thereby allowing the team to post Hwang. (KBO only permits teams to post one player at a time and accept a bid on one player per offseason.) The Giants will again have the option of posting him next offseason should it see fit, as Son is not a free agent until after the 2017 campaign.
Passan recently noted that some execs prefer Hwang’s ceiling to Son’s more consistent track record, adding that Hwang bulked up to about 210 pounds from his previously listed weight of 195 pounds last winter, perhaps explaining some of the increase in power. It remains to be seen if that preference will lead to a notable bid on Hwang, though he’s at a much more scarce position than his teammate, Son, who was up against a reasonably well-stocked outfield market. The Braves, Indians, Angels, White Sox and Brewers are among the clubs that could be seeking some long-term help at the hot corner.
Photo courtesy of Ilgan Sports.