Zack Greinke Market Beginning To Heat Up
The market for free-agent ace Zack Greinke is “quietly heating up,” tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Both the Dodgers and Giants are looking for some clarity in regards to their pursuit of the right-hander, according to Crasnick, who hears that the Excel Sports client is seeking $30MM annually.
As Crasnick notes, that annual target is a challenge for teams interested in Greinke not only due to its own enormity but also due to the fact that Greinke is older than the typical free-agent starter, set to embark on his age-32 campaign in 2016. Most recent multi-year deals of the magnitude Greinke is expected to command conclude in the pitcher’s age-36 season (at least in terms of guaranteed money), but that would cap Greinke at five years. Considering the historically excellent season he just delivered in 2015, however, it’s easy to envision Greinke’s camp seeking six or more years on a free-agent deal.
After all, Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the lowest single-season mark by a qualified starting pitcher in the past two decades. He logged 222 2/3 innings in the regular season, averaging 8.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 and went on to toss 13 2/3 very solid innings in the playoffs as well. Greinke has been nothing short of brilliant in his three years with the Dodgers, compiling a 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 regular-season innings, plus a strikingly similar 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 postseason innings.
Greinke’s age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer are both knocks against him when compared to his primary competitors — David Price and Johnny Cueto — but Greinke is also coming off the best season of the three. Beyond that, the general consensus among scouts seems to be that Greinke will age better than many of his elite peers, somewhat lessening the sting of committing a contract of significant length. In addition to the Dodgers and Giants, Greinke has also been linked to the Red Sox and Cubs, though other large-market, high-payroll teams figure to have privately expressed some interest as well.
Marc Anthony Launches Agency, Will Represent Aroldis Chapman
Singer/actor Marc Anthony announced in a press release today that his entertainment company, Magnus Media, has launched a sports division and has signed Reds closer Aroldis Chapman as a new client. Anthony’s group announced the launch as a joint venture with veteran agents Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro, who will team with Magnus Media CEO Michel Vega to oversee the operations of the newly formed Magnus Sports.
Praver/Shapiro has a long history of representing Hispanic players, which is one element which attracted Anthony to partnering with the duo. “Baseball, like music, is an ingrained cultural passion for many Latinos throughout the world and there’s no shortage of amazing stars of Hispanic origin,” said Anthony in the press release. “Despite that, until now there hasn’t been an enterprise specifically designed to meet their needs. With MAGNUS Sports, we are changing the existing dynamics and building a new kind of Management Company that understands the culture and knows how to build big media. Beyond the cultural connection, social media is also bringing fans closer to their heroes than ever before. That means that athletes, like other entertainers, need management that can help them with both, managing their career and building their brand.”
Pairing with Praver/Shapiro will bring a lengthy list of Major League clients onto the newly formed Magnus Sports’ client roster. Praver and Shapiro represent players such as Jorge Soler, Adeiny Hechavarria, Raisel Iglesias, Eduardo Escobar, Tommy Milone, Juan Uribe and Alejandro De Aza, to name a few. Their joint venture with Anthony and Magnus Media has been updated within the MLBTR Agency Database.
The addition of Chapman to that already sizable list is well-timed, as the 27-year-old (28 in February) will be a free agent next offseason. Assuming another characteristically dominant season, Chapman seems well-positioned to secure what will be a record-breaking contract for a relief pitcher on next year’s market. Five-year pacts for relief pitchers are more or less unheard of — B.J. Ryan’s five-year, $47MM pact was notoriously ill-fated — but heading into his age-29 season in 2017, Chapman will have a case for such a deal at a premium annual rate that should allow him to surpass Jonathan Papelbon‘s four-year, $50MM contract.
Twins’ Deal For Byung-Ho Park Likely To Be Completed Soon
NOVEMBER 28, 4:24pm: The Twins expect Park’s deal to be completed “soon,” a source tells Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. Park and the Twins have until December 8 to complete their deal, but Miller’s source believes it will be complete well in advance of that deadline.
9:23am: Park will head to Minneapolis on Sunday, with a brief stop in Chicago, Naver Sports reports (link in Korean; via Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press). In Minnesota, Park will meet with the Twins and take a physical. The Twins could potentially then announce Park’s signing next week. As Berardino notes, that suggests that, if Park and the Twins haven’t reached an agreement already, they appear to at least be fairly close.
NOVEMBER 9: In what has to be considered a surprise, the Twins were the team to submit the $12.85MM winning bid on Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, reports Daniel Kim of KBS Sports in Korea (Twitter link). Minnesota will now have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Park and his agent, Octagon’s Alan Nero. If a contract cannot be reached, the Twins would be refunded the $12.85MM fee, and Park would return to Korea’s Nexen Heroes for the 2016 season.
Park, 29, is one of the top hitters in all of KBO, having slugged 105 homers over the past two seasons. He hit 53 homers in 2015 to go along with a batting line of .343/.436/.714, though it should be noted that the Korea Baseball Organization is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. That didn’t stop Park’s former Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang, from posting strong numbers in his jump from KBO to MLB, however. Kang is the lone point of reference in terms of position players jumping from Korea to the Majors, and he went from a .356/.459/.739 triple-slash in Korea to an impressive .287/.355/.461 in his Major League debut (while playing in Pittsburgh, where PNC Park is a disadvantageous environment for right-handed power).
Park isn’t a perfect fit on the Twins’ roster, as Minnesota currently has Joe Mauer at first base and Trevor Plouffe at third base, which has relegated the highly impressive Miguel Sano (a third baseman in his own right) to designated hitter for much of his young career. However, Sano has recently worked out in left field, and there’s always the possibility that the Twins could trade Plouffe, whose salary is rising through arbitration and who has just two years of club control remaining before he hits free agency. That would leave third base open for Sano, freeing the Twins to rotate Park and Mauer (who has a full no-trade clause) between DH and first base.
Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote over the weekend that Park was unimpressive when facing Cuban pitching in the Premier 12 tournament this weekend despite the fact that he wasn’t facing plus stuff. That was a sample of just nine plate appearances, though the 1-for-7 result (plus a walk and a HBP) wasn’t as concerning for Badler as the fact that Park swung and missed eight times. Badler does praise Park’s defense at first base, suggesting that he looks capable of providing good defense there. Strikeouts figure to be a part of Park’s game if and when he jumps to the Majors, as he punched out in about a quarter of his plate appearances over the past two seasons in Korea.
Nonetheless, there are plenty of scouts who expect Park’s power to carry over to the Major Leagues. Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets that he spoke to an evaluator who rated Park’s power an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), though he did note that the right-handed hitter might struggle with inside fastballs (Twitter link). I recently spoke to a non-Twins scout that said there’s “no doubt” the power will play and called Park surprisingly athletic, suggesting that Park could deliver something along the lines of Mitch Moreland‘s 2015 production in the Majors. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also tweets that he spoke to one team that pursued Park due to encouraging marks in his exit velocity and home run distances, which led the club to believe he could succeed in the Majors. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince spoke to a scout that saw Park in Korea and graded his power a 70 and his defense at first base a 55 (Twitter link).
If Park ultimately lands with the Twins, he’ll add to a growing core of controllable position players. Sano burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .269/.385/.530 with 18 homers in just 335 plate appearances. Minnesota no doubt would like to pencil Park and Sano into the middle of its lineup as a pair of formidable right-handed sluggers to anchor the lineup for years to come. That pairing would be complemented by Brian Dozier, who looks to be an annual source of 20+ homers at second base as well as the emergent Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario in the outfield. None of that includes top prospect Byron Buxton, who is of course widely believed to be the center fielder of the future in Minneapolis.
The larger question for the Twins this offseason will be whether or not they can sufficiently upgrade their starting rotation and bullpen in the same manner they’ve upgraded the lineup in recent years. While catching and shortstop are potential areas for upgrade this winter, the Twins will also certainly keep their eyes out for pitching upgrades. Their surprise win for Park’s negotiation rights figure to be just the first step in a heavily active offseason.
Blue Jays Sign J.A. Happ
7:48pm: Happ will receive $10MM in 2016 and $13MM apiece for the next two years of the deal, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter.
6:46pm: The Blue Jays have announced the signing of lefty J.A. Happ to a three-year, $36MM contract. Happ, 33, is represented by Dave Rogers.
With the signing, Toronto has brought back a pitcher who spent about two-and-a-half seasons with the club before he was traded away last winter. (That swap returned outfielder Michael Saunders.) During his first 291 frames with the Jays, from 2012 through 2014, Happ worked to a 4.39 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.
Things did not go terribly well for the veteran at the start of 2015. In his twenty-one outings with the Mariners, Happ posted a 4.64 ERA and carried a 6.8 strikeout-per-nine rate that fell below his career average.
But that all changed when the Pirates added Happ in one of the least-discussed moves of the trade deadline. In his final 63 1/3 innings of the season, the southpaw allowed just 13 earned runs, three home runs, and 13 walks while striking out 69 opposing hitters.
While the Blue Jays obviously won’t be expecting Happ to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA rate, it’s fair to wonder whether to what extent that mid-season turnaround will stick. Happ did not seem to benefit from a leap in velocity or major change in his offerings. Instead, the most obvious apparent differences before and after the trade were that he began relying much more heavily on his fastball, threw slightly more strikes, and lucked into somewhat more favorable matchups, as Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs explained late in the season. Happ hasn’t had any significant arm issues since 2010, and has mostly been healthy except for freak injuries, but he has never thrown more innings than the 172 he totaled last year.
Happ joins Marco Estrada (re-signed before the qualifying offer decision deadline) and Jesse Chavez (acquired via trade) as key pitching additions. President Mark Shapiro, interim GM Tony LaCava, and their staff seem to have preferred shorter-term commitments to veteran arms. Toronto obviously chose its targets and moved swiftly, as those represent three of the most significant moves of the still-early offseason.
It remains to be seen precisely how the Jays staff will be put together. Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey seem locks, along with Estrada and now Happ. It certainly seemed that Chavez would also take a rotation spot, given that the club parted with a cheaper, more controllable reliever in Liam Hendriks to add him. Drew Hutchison remains an option despite a rough 2015, as do youngsters Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez — both of whom were quality late-inning pen arms last year.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Happ would land a three year deal, but saw him as more likely to land a $10MM annual guarantee. By signing early, though, Happ was able to maximize his price — aided, no doubt, by the fact that many other quality, mid-range starters came with lengthier contract requests and/or the need to sacrifice a draft pick.
Happ becomes the highest-rated player on that top fifty list (30th) to sign. It certainly bodes well for the rest of the pitching market that he was able to secure such a healthy deal. Hurlers such as Hisashi Iwakuma, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, and Yovani Gallardo will all surely point to that contract as a floor.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLB To Investigate Yasiel Puig For Role In Bar Incident
11:29pm: A police spokesman says that the department is not aware of any allegation that Puig was involved in any physical altercation with his sister, Hernandez reports (Twitter links). If that holds true, then it certainly seems that any domestic violence-related inquiry will be short-lived. Of course, it remains possible that other disciplinary measures could be considered.
9:09pm: The MLB commissioner’s office will investigate Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig under its new domestic violence policy for his role in a reported barroom altercation on Wednesday night, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. Renato Bermudez of ESPN Deportes first reported the incident on Twitter.
A report from TMZ Sports suggested that Puig “pushed” his sister at the bar, precipitating a larger conflict and apparently bringing the matter within the purview of the investigatory provisions of the still-untested policy. The account given by a Miami police spokesperson, via the Associated Press, refers only to an “argument” between Puig and his sister and a scuffle between the outfielder and a bouncer. Commissioner Rob Manfred is tasked with investigating “all allegations of domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse in the Baseball community.”
Puig will not be charged in relation to the incident, though that fact would not insulate him from action by the commissioner’s office. The domestic violence policy specifically provides that punishment may be levied regardless of whether criminal charges are brought or a conviction achieved. (Specifically, it says that “the Commissioner can issue the discipline he believes is appropriate in light of the severity of the conduct.”)
It’s far from clear at this point how the investigation will proceed, let alone what kinds of repercussions could be expected. The domestic violence policy has yet to be applied, though the league recently opened an investigation into Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes after he was arrested and later charged with assaulting his wife.
Orioles Interested In Yovani Gallardo
The Orioles have made contact with the representatives of Yovani Gallardo to express interest in the free agent righty, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. Encina cautions that it is still early in the process and there does not appear to be any likelihood of near-term movement. Indeed, we heard recently that Gallardo’s agent expects it to take some time for his market to develop.
Gallardo, 29, took the twentieth spot on the top fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. While he no longer profiles as a top-of-the-rotation arm, Gallardo fits in the mold of other recent free agent hurlers who have commanded four-year deals at better than $12MM annually. Dierkes predicts that he can achieve a $52MM guarantee on the open market.
Of course, one of those recent comparables — Ubaldo Jimenez — signed his deal with Baltimore two years ago. That contract was, and still is, the richest pitching contract ever given out by the club.
The O’s needed to give up a draft pick to sign Jimenez, and the same would be required to add Gallardo, who declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers. Baltimore owns the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft and stands to add two more top selections if and when Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen sign with new teams.
Baltimore’s staff certainly appears to be in need of supplementation, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club. Gallardo comes with his share of risk — metrics suggest that his sub-3.50 ERA over the last two seasons has been about half a run per nine lucky — but he has been exceedingly durable and has a a nice overall track record of production.
Braves Sign Bud Norris
The Braves have agreed to a one-year major league deal with free agent righty Bud Norris, the club announced. He’ll earn $2.5MM for 2016, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).
Norris, 30, will look for redemption in Atlanta after suffering through a rough 2015 season. On the year, he allowed 6.72 earned runs per nine over 83 innings with 7.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. Along the way, Norris lost his rotation spot and ultimately his roster spot with the Orioles before landing in the Padres’ bullpen.
The Braves will plug Norris into the rotation, GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). He has been useful in such a role previously, of course: in 955 2/3 career innings as a starter, Norris owns a 4.38 ERA. And that’s skewed somewhat by his early-career results.
Atlanta obviously needed another depth piece in its rotation. While there are a number of young players at or near the majors, the staff has a fair bit of uncertainty. The only sure things, arguably, are Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if either or both ended up being traded.
If the righty doesn’t transition well back to the starting staff, he could always turn into a useful reliever. Norris did manage a career-best 11.3 K/9 rate while working in the San Diego pen last season.
Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox Showing Most Interest In Price
The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox are showing the most interest in left-hander David Price, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal adds that while Price enjoyed his time in Toronto, the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise considering the team’s previous reluctance to commit the type of expenditure Price will command to any player. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported today that there’s a “high expectation” among executives involved in the Price bidding that the Red Sox will make the highest offer (links to Twitter). Tom Verducci also said in a recent MLB Network appearance that Boston will aggressively pursue Price.
Other clubs will naturally show interest in Price and presumably already have. However, the common belief that Price is capable of approaching or exceeding Max Scherzer‘s seven-year, $210MM contract from last offseason suggests that many teams will be priced out of serious consideration.
Each of the clubs listed by Rosenthal has a need in the rotation, though some to a greater extent than others. The Cardinals recently lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and saw several of their promising young arms slowed by injuries in 2015 (including Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales). The Dodgers could potentially lose Zack Greinke to free agency and don’t know what to expect from either Hyun-jin Ryu or Brandon McCarthy in 2016. The Giants’ rotation was highly unstable in 2015 behind ace Madison Bumgarner, and the Red Sox struggled through 2015 with one of the game’s worst performances from their rotation. The need for the Cubs is less glaring on paper, as Chicago ranked third in rotation ERA in 2015. However, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wilted down the stretch, and adding another top-tier starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation would give Chicago a highly formidable postseason rotation.
Price is coming off a dominant season split between Detroit and Toronto in which he logged a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 ground-ball rate in 220 1/3 innings. Because he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to this summer’s trade, Price won’t require a new club to forfeit a draft pick upon signing him.
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Athletics Acquire Jed Lowrie
The Athletics announced on Wednesday that they have re-acquired infielder Jed Lowrie from the division-rival Astros in exchange for minor league right-hander Brendan McCurry.
Lowrie, 32 in April, signed a three-year, $23MM contract with the Astros last offseason. He’s been with Oakland or Houston each season dating back to 2012, although the circumstances are certainly unique. The Astros acquired Lowrie in a trade with the Red Sox prior to the 2012 season, and Houston sent him to Oakland that winter in exchange for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock and Max Stassi. After a nice two years in Oakland, Lowrie signed the three-year deal with Houston last winter, but the emergence of Carlos Correa made him a bit superfluous for the Astros, thus leading to today’s trade.
Lowrie is owed $15MM over the next two seasons, including a $7.5MM salary in 2016 and a $6.5MM salary in 2017. His contract comes with a $6MM team option for the 2018 season that includes a $1MM buyout.
In 2015, Lowrie batted .222/.312/.400 with nine home runs, playing mostly third base but also logging some time at shortstop as well. Lowrie got off to a blistering start in 2015, hitting .300/.432/.567 through April 27 before suffering a torn ligament in his right thumb that required surgery. That injury kept Lowrie out of action through July 30, and while it wasn’t reasonable to expect him to maintain his April production, the injury likely sapped his production over the final two months. Lowrie hit just .194/.265/.341 after being activated, and the immediate impact made by Correa cost him his role as the team’s everyday shortstop, hence the shift to third base. With an offseason of rest under his belt, better 2016 production could be expected from Lowrie, who can help the A’s at any of the four infield positions.
The capacity in which Lowrie will be deployed by the A’s is unclear. Marcus Semien was the team’s primary shortstop in 2015, but his 35 errors were the most in the Major Leagues by a player at any position. Danny Valencia hit well enough in 2015 (.284/.356/.530) that Oakland seems likely to want to get him regular at-bats. Third base is probably the best spot for Valencia, but the A’s also have Brett Lawrie as an option at the hot corner. Lawrie, of course, has plenty of experience at second base (thus raising the possibility of a Lawrie/Lowrie double-play tandem), but some feel that Semien may ultimately end up playing second base. Lowrie could serve as a left-handed complement to Mark Canha at first base as well, considering that Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently tweeted that Ike Davis is likely to be non-tendered by Oakland.
McCurry, 23, was Oakland’s 22nd-round pick in the 2014 draft and rode a strong showing in 2015 to the No. 30 rank on MLB.com’s list of top Athletics prospects. The Oklahoma State product split the year between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, compiling a 1.86 ERA with 11.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. In total, McCurry has a 1.37 ERA in 91 2/3 innings as a pro (all coming out of the bullpen), although it should be noted that he hasn’t been moved through the system all that aggressively and has been more experienced than much of the competition that he’s faced. MLB.com notes that McCurry can spot a fastball that tops out at 93 mph on either side of the plate. His best pitch is a curveball, and while his upside is probably only that of a middle reliever, he has a high probability of realizing that potential due to his control and ability to succeed regardless of opponent handedness.
MLB.com’s Jane Lee was the first to report that Lowrie was headed back to the A’s (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.