Cafardo On Hamels, Astros, Howard, Craig
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that teams second guessing themselves is just a regular part of the offseason. A lot of folks are second guessing the A’s, but manager Bob Melvin has confidence in GM Billy Beane.
“We’re looking to get a little bit younger, yet if you want to look back to the end of 2011 and leading into 2012, we traded our last three All-Stars in [Trevor] Cahill, [Andrew] Bailey, and [Gio] Gonzalez and we ended up winning the division,” said Melvin. “We’re looking to compete again. This isn’t something where we’re breaking it down and moving in a different direction. The players that we’re getting back we like. There’s always a balance here for us in that we have to look down the road. We lost quite a bit of talent the last couple of years, making some trades. Billy is about as good as it gets as far as being able to handle that balance and keep us competitive currently, yet also having to look down the road for the future.”
More from today’s column..
- The Astros are a sleeper team in the Cole Hamels chase, Cafardo writes. The Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, and Rangers are also interested in the Phillies left-hander, but Houston could join the bunch and the Giants may also be in if they can’t land James Shields.
- The Phillies are trying to get teams interested in Ryan Howard, and a team source indicated to Cafardo that they are willing to pay a great majority of his contract to move him. Howard is owed $60MM between 2015 and 2017, including a buyout. The Rays and Orioles have DH needs and he could theoretically fit the bill.
- Both the Marlins and the Brewers have active interest in Red Sox first baseman Allen Craig. Craig, 30, had some strong years with the Cardinals before joining the Red Sox at last year’s deadline.
- Agent John Boggs says that he’s having “discussions with several cubs” about client Ichiro Suzuki, though no deal is imminent at this time.
- Dan Uggla’s agent, Terry Bross, was trying to market his client for a comeback at the Winter Meetings. Cafardo hears that a lot of the 34-year-old’s decline may have had to do with an undetected concussion.
Jung-ho Kang Rumors: Sunday
Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang is set to be posted on Monday and is said to have interest from the Athletics, Giants, Mets, and several other clubs. The A’s and Mets would presumably be interested in Kang at shortstop. The Giants, meanwhile could use Kang at either third or they could shift Joe Panik to the hot corner and use Kang at second. We’ll keep track of the latest on the 27-year-old here..
- Many at the winter meetings felt that Kang is seeking a deal in the neighborhood of $24MM over three years, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Internally, the Mets appear to be split on Kang. Some scouts fear that Kang will not be able to play shortstop at the major league level and question whether his offense will translate. The Mets could use the kind of production that Kang put up in the KBO but they’ve also said that they’re willing to head into spring training with Wilmer Flores as their starting shortstop.
Top Ten Remaining Free Agents
Now that the smoke has cleared after an extremely busy Winter Meetings, here’s a look at the top ten remaining free agents available (based on Tim Dierkes’ early-November ranking of the top 50 free agents), with updates on each. We’ll assume here that Brandon McCarthy, whose pact with the Dodgers has is not yet confirmed, is off the market.
1. Max Scherzer — Six weeks into the offseason, it’s Jon Lester, and not Scherzer, who has dominated discussions, but that’s mostly because Scherzer’s agent, Scott Boras, often prefers to have his clients sign later in the offseason. A reunion with the Tigers appears possible for Scherzer, although a Tigers official recently said a new deal for Scherzer was “not happening.” The Yankees also appear to be a possibility for Scherzer, who is reportedly looking for at least $200MM.
3. James Shields — The Red Sox are an obvious match for Shields, despite all the starting pitching Boston has already added. The Giants also seem keenly interested in Shields. Shields has also met with the Rangers, although GM Jon Daniels has said the club was mostly just doing due diligence.
7. Melky Cabrera — The Mariners appear to be the clear favorites here, although reports indicate that neither the Mariners nor the Orioles are willing to go beyond three years. Cabrera is reportedly the Royals’ top priority to (re-)join their outfield as well.
12. Kenta Maeda — It still isn’t clear whether the Hiroshima Carp will post Maeda this winter. If they do, expect the Diamondbacks to have interest. Teams in the pitching market who lose out on Shields or Cole Hamels could be possibilities as well. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has flown to Japan to watch Maeda pitch.
16. Chase Headley — The Yankees continue to be connected to Headley, with the Giants (who, of course, lost Pablo Sandoval already this offseason) in the mix as well. Before the Winter Meetings, it was rumored that a mystery team had offered Headley four years and $65MM. (Another report had the Astros offering Headley five years and $65MM.) One would think the four-year, $65 offer (which went way over the four years and $48MM MLBTR projected) would have seemed like a good deal for Headley, but he remains on the market a week and a half later. Some within the industry reportedly doubted that offer was legitimate.
20. Colby Rasmus — The market for Rasmus has been fairly quiet, with the Orioles and Royals lurking as possibilities. And even there, the Royals reportedly only see Rasmus as a backup plan in case they’re unable to land Cabrera. Rasmus has talent and youth on his side, but his strikeout numbers and his benching by the Jays are concerns. Still, the lack of a clear market for Rasmus seems a little incongruous, given that he’s 28 and produced a 4.8-fWAR season in 2013.
21. Jed Lowrie — The Giants have asked about Lowrie as a potential addition at third base or second (in which case Joe Panik would move to third). Lowrie is reportedly looking for a three-year deal, with the Mets and Marlins as potential landing spots along with the Giants.
22. Asdrubal Cabrera — The Giants have inquired about Cabrera as a potential third baseman as well, only to be told that he would rather play up the middle. The Royals have shown interest in Cabrera, but they might not have much use for him unless they can move Omar Infante. The Mets, on the hunt for a shortstop, reportedly have more interest in Lowrie or Stephen Drew than in Cabrera. Given Cabrera’s recent defensive struggles, it’s hard to imagine a team signing him to start at shortstop at this point, so if he’s not willing to play third, he might be limited to second.
26. Jake Peavy — The market for Peavy has been rather quiet, which isn’t a surprise, given that the pitching market only recently broke open with Lester’s signing. The Marlins have been connected to Peavy, and Miami might be a possibility for him if Dan Haren retires, although the Marlins’ acquisition of Mat Latos probably makes a signing less likely. The Dodgers have also had discussions with Peavy, although that was reported before we learned they were deep in talks with Brandon McCarthy.
27. Hiroki Kuroda — At last check, Kuroda had reportedly not yet decided whether to pitch in the Majors next season (in which case he might return to the Yankees) to pitch in Japan, or to retire. He remained a durable and effective starter even at age 39 last season, so the Yankees could certainly still use him if he were to decide to return.
Pirates To Sign Radhames Liz To Major League Deal
DECEMBER 13: The Pirates have made the Liz deal official, and it’s not a two-year deal, but rather a one-year deal worth $1MM. Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review explains that the Pirates were uncomfortable with the results of Liz’s physical, which led to the lesser deal.
NOVEMBER 21: The Pirates have signed right-hander Radhames Liz to a Major League contract, tweets ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net was the first to report that he’d been signed to a big league deal, reporting it as a two-year, $3MM contract (Twitter link).
Some may remember the hard-throwing Liz from his days with the Orioles, with whom he pitched from 2007-09. Liz ranked as a Top 100 prospect per Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, but he struggled greatly in those three seasons, pitching to a 7.50 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 6.2 BB/9 in 110 1/3 innings. Following his time with Baltimore, the Dominican hurler spent a season with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate before heading overseas to pitch in Korea.
Liz reinvented himself as a member of the LG Twins in the Korea Baseball Organization, compiling a 3.51 ERA with 454 strikeouts against 240 walks in 518 2/3 innings over a three-year stint. Those numbers are no small feat in the hitter-friendly KBO, and Liz’s best season was his last in Korea — a 3.06 ERA with a league-leading 188 strikeouts in 202 2/3 innings.
The righty returned to pro ball in North America in 2014, notching a 2.95 ERA in 61 innings with the Blue Jays’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Liz was said to be mulling over multiple seven-figure offers to return to Japan or Korea, but the Pirates were able to convince him to stay, apparently with a two-year contract that comes with little financial risk.
Pittsburgh is known for revitalizing pitchers under coordinator Jim Benedict and pitching coach Ray Searage. The team has worked wonders with the likes of A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, Jason Grilli, Vance Worley and Edinson Volquez in recent seasons. Liz will be the next reclamation project, it seems. He averaged nearly 94 mph on his heater back in his Orioles days and has what one scout from the Dominican Republic described to Stark as “power stuff” and a “vicious curve.”
Blue Jays Interested In Rizzo To Replace Beeston
6:35pm: Rizzo says the Jays have not contacted him and that he remains focused on his job with the Nationals, Wagner tweets.
2:51pm: The Blue Jays are interested in Nationals GM and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo to replace president and CEO Paul Beeston, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports. The Jays have also been connected to Terry Ryan of the Twins, Kenny Williams of the White Sox and Dan Duquette of the Orioles to fill the position, although all have either been denied permission to interview for the job or have said they’re not interested. What will happen with Beeston isn’t yet entirely clear, with one report indicating that Beeston would remain on the job through 2015.
Rizzo’s level of interest, if any, in the Blue Jays job is unclear, and the Washington Post’s James Wagner tweets that the Nationals haven’t been contacted regarding Rizzo’s potential candidacy. Rizzo signed a new long-term deal with the Nationals in August 2013, which is when he was promoted to president of baseball operations.
Rizzo took over the Nationals’ GM job after Jim Bowden’s departure in 2009. Since then, the Nationals have made the playoffs twice, losing in the NLDS in both 2012 and 2014. He was named the BBWAA’s Executive of the Year following the 2012 season.
Arbitration Breakdown: Rick Porcello
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Rick Porcello enters his fourth and final arbitration year coming off of a career year — and heading to a new team. With a 3.43 ERA, he bested his career ERA by over a run, and he had personal records with 15 wins and 204 2/3 innings too. Porcello had never had an ERA better than 3.96—and that was his rookie year—and he had gotten 14 wins a couple times, although not since 2011. Porcello had also never thrown more than 182 innings, yet he beat that handily this year. After establishing himself as a slightly below average starter whose best characteristic was that he was durable, Porcello emerged as an important contributor in 2014.
Those three key statistics for which Porcello had a career record in 2014 (ERA, wins, innings) are by far the most important ones for starting pitchers in arbitration. Furthermore, in general only the most recent season counts towards a player’s arbitration raise once they have reached their second year of eligibility or later. The previous years’ performances only really matter in as much as they affect the salary base from which the player will earn a raise. As a result, Porcello is likely to get a healthy raise from his $8.5MM salary in 2014, and my model projects his raise to be $3.7MM, putting him at $12.2MM. By looking at other comparables, this looks like a reasonable estimate.
Shaun Marcum in 2012 received a $3.30MM raise after going 13-7 with a 3.54 ERA in 200.2 innings. Although strikeouts do appear to have some effect on starting pitchers’ arbitration cases, and Marcum had 158 to Porcello’s 129, the rest of Marcum’s case seems to be slightly worse across the board. His ERA is barely higher, his innings are barely lower, yet he won two fewer games. As a result, Marcum is likely to be seen as floor for Porcello. This means that Porcello is likely to be able to argue that any agreement should give him a raise of more than the $3.3MM than Marcum received.
A possible ceiling for Porcello could be Justin Masterson’s $4.07MM raise last year. Masteron had a 14-10 record, so he did win one fewer game than Porcello, and his 3.45 ERA was similar. Masterson also had 193 innings, which is less than Porcello’s 204.2. However, all of those numbers are similar and Masterson had 195 strikeouts, beating Porcello by 69. If strikeouts are given any real weight in Porcello’s process (which does not always seem to be the case), they are likely to make Masterson look like a ceiling because of the similarity of his case otherwise. However, if they are not considered strongly, then Masterson would look more like an even comparable for Porcello.
Another possible comparable could be Jason Vargas from 2013, who got a $3.65MM raise—just $50K less than my model predicts. Vargas went 14-11 with a 3.85 ERA, so he had one fewer win and an ERA 0.42 higher. But Vargas had 217.1 innings, topping Masterson by 12.2 innings, and he struck out twelve more batters. The case is definitely similar, with the extra win and better ERA not necessarily giving a better case because of the 12.2 fewer innings and twelve fewer strikeouts. As a result, the $3.65MM seems likely to be close to what Porcello earns.
I suspect that the model will nail this case based on these three comparable pitchers. This would put Porcello at $12.2MM in his last year before free agency.
Red Sox Acquire Wade Miley
The Red Sox have officially added lefty Wade Miley in a trade with the Diamondbacks, the teams announced today. Right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, along with infielder Raymel Flores, make up the return for the D’Backs.
Miley has been the source of several rumors during these Winter Meetings, with the Rangers, Marlins and Blue Jays all with varying levels of interest in the southpaw. Miley is projected to earn $4.3MM (by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) in his first time through the arbitration process this winter, and he’ll be under team control through 2017.
Over the last three seasons, Miley has posted a 3.74 ERA, 2.66 K/BB rate and 7.1 K/9 while averaging an even 200 innings per year. He has a 48.6% ground ball rate over his career, which will serve him as well at Fenway Park as it did at Chase Field. Miley posted a 3.98 FIP, 3.50 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA in 2014, so the advanced metrics suggest that he was somewhat unlucky to produce his 4.34 ERA.
While Miley isn’t the durable lefty the Red Sox were hoping to land during the Winter Meetings, Miley is at least younger and far cheaper than Jon Lester, and he’ll slot into the Boston rotation alongside Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly. Boston is undoubtedly still looking to acquire at least one or possibly two more starters for 2015, including a Lester-level ace in free agency or the trade market.
This is the second high-profile deal that De La Rosa and Webster have both been a part of, as the two righties were part of the trade package that Boston received as part of the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett blockbuster with the Dodgers in 2012. As Jack Magruder of FOX Sports Arizona points out, Diamondbacks senior VP De Jon Watson was in the Los Angeles front office when De La Rosa and Webster originally joined the Dodgers.
De La Rosa appeared in 30 games for the Sox (18 of them starts) in 2013-14, posting a 4.54 ERA, 2.16 K/BB and 6.4 K/9 in 113 innings. With Boston openly looking to add top-level starting pitching this offseason and a number of highly-regarded pitching prospects in the minors, it seems as if De La Rosa may have simply been squeezed out of a job with the Sox.
Webster also struggled at the Major League level (a 6.25 ERA over 89 1/3 innings over the last two seasons) but has a higher prospect pedigree than De La Rosa. Webster entered the year ranked as a top-100 prospect in the game, albeit over rather a wide range — he was ranked 46th by MLB.com, and 88th by Baseball America. The righty posted strong minor league numbers and was described by the 2014 Baseball America Prospect Handbook as having “outrageous” stuff “suggesting top-of-the-rotation potential” but there were big questions about his confidence and fastball command.
That brings us to Flores, a 20-year-old middle infielder who played at the low-A level last year in his age-19 season. Flores hit .282/.344/.354 over 233 plate appearances, adding 14 stolen bases and one long ball, but he is known primarily for his glove.
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi first reported the deal (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of FOX Sports reported on Twitter that it was finalized. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (via Twitter) reported the inclusion of Flores.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Among Teams With Offers Out To Brandon Morrow
The Padres have made a one-year offer to free agent righty Brandon Morrow, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). The offer includes significant incentives.
Other teams, too, have offers on the table for Morrow to weigh. Several teams are pursuing him as a reliever, while others would sign him as a starter, as is his preference.
Morrow, 30, became a free agent when the Blue Jays declined a $10MM option. Once one of the more promising young rotation pieces in the game, Morrow struggled badly with injury and performance over the last two seasons. In total, he managed only 87 2/3 frames of 5.65 ERA ball, with 7.4 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. But he remains an intriguing talent, and there is apparently a good deal of interest in seeing if he can work past his various arm issues.
Red Sox Acquire Zeke Spruill
The Red Sox have acquired righty Zeke Spruill from the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Myles Smith, Arizona announced. This move was separate from the other trade announced tonight between these two clubs.
Spruill, 25, has thrown 34 big league frames over the past two seasons, working to a 4.24 ERA over three starts and nine relief appearances. He had been a full-time starter in the minors until last year, when he transitioned to a swingman role. He also posted a 6.14 ERA at the Triple-A level — after previously landing in the mid-3.00 level in two seasons in the upper minors — but did see his strikeout rate skyrocket to 8.2 K/9 (with 2.3 BB/9).
Smith threw last year at the low-A level at age 22. He registered a 5.82 ERA over 103 2/3 frames, splitting time as a starter and reliever, and struck out 6.3 while walking 5.4 batters per nine. WEEI.com’s Alex Speier explains (Twitter links) that Smith is athletic and has a very live arm, but struggled with control and has not been pitching for very long.
Rays, Pirates Complete Sean Rodriguez Trade
DEC. 12: The Rays announced that they have acquired right-hander Buddy Borden from the Pirates to complete the trade (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).
The 22-year-old Borden was Pittsburgh’s seventh-round pick out of UNLV in 2013 and spent this past season in the Class-A South Atlantic League. There, he pitched to a 3.16 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 128 innings (26 starts, 27 appearances total). At the time of the draft, Baseball America (subscription required) praised his durable, athletic build and a 90-92 mph fastball that could touch 95. However, BA also noted that his secondary pitches were below average, which could point to relief work in the long-term.
DEC. 1: The Pirates announced that they have acquired infielder Sean Rodriguez from the Rays in exchange for a player to be named later and cash considerations. First baseman Gaby Sanchez has been designated for assignment to clear roster space.
Rodriguez was designated for assignment by the Rays last week. The 29-year-old, projected to earn $2MM via arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, posted a career-high 12 home runs in 2014 with a career-best .232 isolated power mark, but the rest of his stats took a tumble. Rodriguez batted .211/.258/.443 on the whole, walking at a career-low 3.9 percent clip while striking out in nearly 26 percent of his plate appearances.
Rodriguez is able to play all four infield positions as well the outfield corners, and he generally has posted plus defensive marks as an infielder. The Pirates are set to enter the season with Josh Harrison at third base, Jordy Mercer at shortstop, Neil Walker at second and Pedro Alvarez at first, and Rodriguez can back up all four of those positions at a reasonable price.
Sanchez, who turned 31 in September, struggled through one of the worst seasons of his career at the plate this past year, batting just .229/.293/.385 with seven homers. The right-handed hitting Sanchez is best served as a platoon bat, as evidenced by the 170-point differential between his career OPS marks versus lefties and righties. He did hit a respectable .256/.318/.429 against southpaws in 2014, so he’d make a good platoon partner for someone like Adam Lind in Milwaukee. However, with a projected arb salary of $2.7MM, interested teams may first hope that he can be claimed off waivers or even clears waivers rather than giving up a minor prospect in a trade.