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Dodgers Announce World Series Roster

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With Game 1 of the Fall Classic set to begin tonight at 7:08 pm CT, the Dodgers officially revealed their World Series roster. While 23 of the 26 players from the NLCS roster are sticking around for the World Series, the team made three substitutions. Right-handed pitcher Brusdar Graterol, left-handed pitcher Alex Vesia, and infielder Miguel Rojas have been added to the roster, while right-handed pitchers Evan Phillips and Edgardo Henriquez and outfielder Kevin Kiermaier have been left off.

Rojas had an excellent regular season for the Dodgers, but he has been nursing a partially torn adductor muscle since late September. He played in the NLDS, going 2-for-8 across three games, but was left off the NLCS roster after re-aggravating his injury. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Rojas was likely to make the World Series roster. With Rojas back in action, Roberts will have more flexibility to use Tommy Edman, Chris Taylor, and Enrique Hernández in the outfield, therefore leaving Kiermaier as the odd man out. Kiermaier was not on the NLDS roster but joined the team in the NLCS in place of Rojas.

As for Graterol and Vesia, their inclusions on the roster come as a bit more of a pleasant surprise. Roberts was less certain about their status when he spoke to the media on Thursday, but clearly, the team has since decided they’re both ready to return.

Graterol has dealt with injuries almost all year and was unable to pitch in either the NLDS or NLCS. However, he was one of L.A.’s best relievers from 2022-23, and he has a career 1.64 ERA in 22 postseason games. If he is back at full strength, he should represent a huge upgrade to the Dodgers’ arm barn. The same is true of Vesia, who has quietly been one of the best relievers in baseball since joining the Dodgers. Over 227 appearances with the club, he has a 2.57 ERA – plus a 1.50 ERA in 15 postseason games. Vesia pitched in the NLDS against the Padres but suffered a minor intercostal injury during Game 5. His return will be especially important considering the Dodgers were down to just one left-handed pitcher on their entire pitching staff during the NLCS. He is sure to play a vital role against some of the dangerous lefties in the Yankees’ lineup.

Subbing out for Graterol and Vesia are Phillips and Henríquez. Phillips struggled at times in the second half, seemingly losing his job as the Dodgers’ primary closer in the process. Nonetheless, losing the right-hander is a big blow for L.A. Even in an up-and-down season, Phillips finished with a 3.62 and 3.15 SIERA over 61 games. He also made five scoreless appearances in this year’s playoffs; he has yet to allow a run in 15 1/3 career postseason innings. Unfortunately, it seems as if the arm fatigue he felt in Game 6 of the NLCS (per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) continues to be a problem. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic also notes that Phillips has been pushing through “lat, biceps and triceps tightness” for about a month, so it is not hard to see why the Dodgers would exercise caution. It’s also worth noting, as POBO Andrew Friedman told reporters, that the Dodgers would not have been able to remove Phillips from the roster mid-series if his injury worsened, because it was a pre-existing condition (per Harris).

As for Henriquez, the hard-throwing rookie was lucky enough to make the NLDS and NLCS rosters after pitching just 3 1/3 innings in the regular season. He gave up four earned runs on eight hits over five innings of work in his first taste of October baseball. It’s hardly surprising to see him bumped off the roster now that Graterol and Vesia are available once again.

The full roster:

Fernando Valenzuela Passes Away

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Fernando Valenzuela passed away on Tuesday evening, a little more than a week shy of his 64th birthday. Major League Baseball will honor his memory with the World Series beginning at Dodger Stadium this weekend.

“On behalf of the Dodger organization, we profoundly mourn the passing of Fernando,” team president and CEO Stan Kasten said in a statement. “He is one of the most influential Dodgers ever and belongs on the Mount Rushmore of franchise heroes. He galvanized the fan base with the Fernandomania season of 1981 and has remained close to our hearts ever since, not only as a player but also as a broadcaster. He has left us all too soon. Our deepest condolences go out to his wife Linda and his family.”

Commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement of his own. “Fernando Valenzuela was one of the most impactful players of his generation. With his distinctive pitching style, the Dodger left-hander’s rookie season generated so much excitement in the U.S. and his native Mexico that it became commonly referred to as ‘Fernandomania.’ His 1981 season ranks among the most decorated pitching years of all-time as Fernando was the National League Rookie of the Year, the NL Cy Young Award winner, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series Champion.”

As both Kasten and Manfred referenced, Valenzuela was best known for his electric rookie season. The Mexican-born hurler signed with the Dodgers in 1979. While he was just 18 at the time, it didn’t take long before he pitched his way to Dodger Stadium. Valenzuela made all of 30 appearances in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut as a September call-up in 1980. Pitching out of the bullpen, the 19-year-old fired 17 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run to close the season. It was a preview of the phenomenon to come.

The Dodgers tabbed Valenzuela as their Opening Day starter in 1981 after Jerry Reuss suffered an injury. Valenzuela tossed a five-hit shutout against the Astros in his first career start. He followed up with a 10-strikeout complete game in a 7-1 victory over the Giants. He’d rattle off three straight shutouts thereafter, recording two more double-digit strikeout performances in the process. He closed out April with a 5-0 record and one run allowed in 45 innings.

Valenzuela’s shutout streak was snapped when he “merely” threw a one-run complete game win over the Expos during his first appearance of May. He blanked the Mets with 11 strikeouts in his next appearance, then tossed another complete game win (this time with two earned runs) against Montreal. Valenzuela completed and won each of his first eight big league starts while running a cumulative 0.50 earned run average — all at age 20.

That sheer dominance, which came on the back of a wiffle ball-style screwball, was only a part of Valenzuela’s immense popularity. A young Mexican pitcher performing at an historic level in Southern California made him an icon among Latin American fans, in particular. Valenzuela’s rookie year quickly became the stuff of legend, and the “Fernandomania” moniker that it took on remains a key chapter in MLB history more than four decades later. It was a captivating performance the likes of which will probably never be seen again with teams keeping a much closer eye on young pitchers’ workloads.

Of course, Valenzuela’s career stretched well beyond those magical two months. His rookie year was interrupted by the player’s strike that stopped play between the middle of June and the second week of August. The Dodgers, who were 36-21 at the time of the work stoppage, were declared the first-half winners of the NL West title. They knocked off the second-half NL West champion Astros in a hastily implemented Division Series — the Wild Card wouldn’t be introduced until more than a decade later — before toppling Montreal in the NLCS.

That set up a World Series showdown with the Yankees. Los Angeles defeated New York in what had been the most recent Fall Classic matchup between the behemoths. Valenzuela got the win with a four-run complete game in Game 3, the first of four straight victories for the Dodgers after they dropped the first two in the Bronx.

It was an ideal ending to one of the greatest rookie seasons the game has ever seen. Valenzuela turned in a 2.48 ERA across an NL-leading 192 1/3 innings. His eight shutouts and 180 strikeouts both led all major league pitchers. He topped future Hall of Famer Tim Raines for Rookie of the Year and edged out two more legends — Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton — to win the Cy Young. He finished fifth in MVP balloting and picked up a Silver Slugger for good measure. Valenzuela tossed 40 2/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball over his five postseason starts.

The rookie season was so exceptional that it necessarily represented the peak of his career. Yet that in no way diminishes what he achieved throughout the 1980s. The southpaw remained a force atop the L.A. rotation for most of the decade. Valenzuela made the All-Star team in each of his first six full seasons. He topped 250 innings every year between 1982-87.

He fired 285 innings of 2.87 ERA ball in his second year, tying for third in Cy Young balloting in the process. He’d earn two more top-five finishes in the middle of the decade — including a runner-up placement behind Mike Scott during an ’86 season in which he struck out 242 hitters and led the Senior Circuit with 21 wins. The Dodgers made the postseason in 1983 and ’85, losing in the NLCS both times. They returned to the World Series in 1988 and defeated the A’s in five games. Valenzuela missed that series due to injury but collected a second ring after throwing 142 1/3 regular season innings.

Valenzuela remained with the Dodgers for another few seasons, but his production waned. The Dodgers moved on after he allowed an NL-most 104 earned runs in 1990. It wasn’t a good year overall, though Valenzuela had his final highlight in a Dodger uniform when he no-hit the Cardinals that June. He bounced around between the Mexican League and MLB for another few seasons, most notably spending three years with the Padres. He made one final trip to the postseason with San Diego in 1996 and finished his MLB playing career the following season. Valenzuela made a brief return to the mound in his home country in the mid-2000s.

All told, he pitched in parts of 17 MLB seasons. Valenzuela suited up for six teams, though he’ll obviously be remembered most for his time in Dodger blue. He finished his career with a 3.54 ERA in nearly 3000 innings. He won 173 games, struck out more than 2000 hitters, and tossed 113 complete games (31 of which were shutouts). His rate stats, while still impressive, are diminished somewhat by his late-career struggles. During his 1981-86 peak, he turned in a 2.97 ERA with 1258 strikeouts and 84 complete games in exactly 200 regular season starts. He was also a solid hitter for a pitcher, running a career .200 average with 10 home runs while winning a pair of Silver Sluggers.

Valenzuela’s peak might have been Hall of Fame worthy, but he didn’t maintain it long enough to garner serious consideration from the BBWAA. He fell off the ballot in his second year of eligibility in 2004. Valenzuela was inducted into the Dodgers’ Ring of Honor. The franchise officially retired his #34 last year. He remained a key figure in the organization as a Spanish-language broadcaster through this season.

The news will cast a shadow over the upcoming World Series, though the Dodgers’ presence provides an opportunity for the organization to honor Valenzuela’s legacy on the biggest stage. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, former teammates and the countless fans whose lives he impacted.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

NPB’s Chunichi Dragons To Post Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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The Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have granted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara’s request to be posted for MLB teams, per a report from Yahoo Japan. He’ll be available to big league clubs in free agency this winter and is being represented by WME. A formal date for his posting has not yet been determined, but he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with MLB clubs once posted. If no deal is reached, Ogasawara will return to the Dragons for the 2025 season.

Ogasawara just turned 27 years old earlier this month. He’s already a veteran of parts of nine NPB seasons, having made his Central League debut as an 18-year-old back in 2016. Listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds, he’s of slighter frame than the typical big league starter but has started at least 23 games and topped 140 innings in each of the past four seasons. That includes a career-high 160 2/3 innings with the Dragons in 2023.

This past season, Ogasawara tossed 144 1/3 innings and notched a solid 3.12 ERA with an outstanding 3.7% walk rate — the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, that pinpoint command came with a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate that will limit Ogasawara’s appeal. To his credit, Ogasawara has missed far more bats in the past, punching out 24% of opponents as recently as 2022 and fanning 20.1% of opponents in 2023. In both instances, he had higher but nevertheless strong walk rates (6.7% and 6.1%, respectively).

Video of Ogasawara reveals a pitcher who sits in the 91-93 mph range with his four-seamer, complementing the pitch with a low-80s changeup and a slow knuckle curve that sits in the low 70s. Neither Ogasawara’s frame nor velocity stand out, but both are relatively comparable to those of 5’10”, 175-pound Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. Ogasawara’s camp may try to make that comparison, but Imanaga consistently posted lower earned run averages and far superior strikeout rates in NPB (29.5% in his final season with the BayStars). That said, Ogasawara is three years younger than Imanaga was at the time of posting. A multi-year deal seems plausible, though likely not at the same levels as Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee (which can grow to $79MM based on club/player options).

For those in need of a reminder or an introduction to the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB clubs are allowed to “post” players for MLB teams to bid on prior to those players reaching free agency for the first time (nine years of service, under NPB rules). Any major league team can negotiate with the player and his representatives to negotiate a contract for any amount — provided the player is at least 25 years old and has at least six seasons of professional experience. (Players under 25 and/or with fewer than six years of experience are deemed “amateurs” by MLB and restricted to minor league deals and hard-capped signing bonuses.)

The posting window lasts 45 days but can reach a conclusion earlier, depending on when the player in question strikes a deal to his liking. In addition to paying the player the agreed-upon guarantees in the contract, the MLB team will also be on the hook for a release fee to the player’s former team. That fee is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Contractual factors like club options, incentives based on innings/plate appearances, awards bonuses, etc. are all subject to being included in the release fee as well, once those earnings are unlocked.

Nico Hoerner Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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The Cubs announced that infielder Nico Hoerner underwent right flexor tendon surgery on October 11, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay the news on X. The club hasn’t yet provided an estimated timeline for his recovery.

The news comes out of nowhere, as there was no prior indication there was anything wrong with Hoerner’s throwing arm. He didn’t go on the injured list at any point in 2024, playing in 151 games. He did miss a bit of time with hamstring tightness in May and he also suffered a hand fracture from a hit-by-pitch in June, but was back in the lineup after a few days off.

His arm strength has tailed off in recent years, however, which was perhaps a warning sign. In the 2020-22 seasons, he averaged between 81 and 83 miles per hour on his throws from second base. That dropped to 78.1 mph last year and 75.1 mph in 2024.

Hoerner is coming off his third straight season of fairly consistent production, with above-average contributions on offense, defense and on the basepaths. At the plate, he doesn’t provide a lot of power but is very tough to strike out and gets on-base enough to get above par overall. In each of the past three seasons, his home run total has finished between seven and ten while his wRC+ has been between 103 and 108.

In 2022, he stole 20 bases in 22 tries. That seems to have prompted a more aggressive approach, which led to a few more steals but also a few more outs. In 2023, he made 50 steal attempts, succeeding 43 times. In 2024, it was 31 steals in 37 tries.

Defensively, he has received strong grades at his primary position of second base, as well as filling in at shortstop. If it weren’t for the presence of Dansby Swanson on the roster, Hoerner likely could have provided strong glovework at short on a regular basis. FanGraphs has considered Hoerner to be worth between 3.9 and 4.6 wins above replacement in each of those three campaigns, reflecting his steady performance.

Prior to this news, there was a speculative case for the Cubs to make Hoerner available in trades. He and the Cubs signed an extension in 2023, a three-year pact that guaranteed him $35MM over the 2024-26 seasons. There are still two years remaining on that deal, with Hoerner to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026.

This winter’s shortstop free agent class is pretty thin. Willy Adames is the top guy and he was to be followed by Ha-Seong Kim, but Kim recently underwent shoulder surgery and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Opening Day 2025. For clubs that miss out on Adames, their best bets will be guys who are likely viewed as a tier below an everyday option, with names like Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Kyle Farmer in this group.

There likely would have been some clubs interested in acquiring Hoerner and moving him back to shortstop. The Cubs could have entertained the idea since they have a strong farm system. The current top 100 list at MLB Pipeline features eight Cubs, including six that have reached the Triple-A level. Two of those are infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos, both of whom are capable of playing second base.

There are only so many ways that the Cubs can open space for those prospects, as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Swanson all have full no-trade protection. Hoerner doesn’t have such a clause. Making him available in trades could have allowed the Cubs to upgrade their pitching staff in a trade, with Shaw and/or Triantos filling the void.

Perhaps that plan will now be less viable with the news of this surgery, as clubs will naturally have some hesitation about acquiring Hoerner until his prognosis is more clear. If Hoerner ends up staying with the Cubs and missing some of the 2025 season, perhaps guys like Shaw or Triantos will have a path to Opening Day roles. Third baseman Isaac Paredes also has second base experience and could slide over, opening up the hot corner.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Jerry Reinsdorf Reportedly Discussing Sale Of White Sox

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White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is open to selling the club and is in “active discussions” with a group led by Dave Stewart, reports Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic. It’s unclear how possible a sale is or how much progress the talks have made, but it would be a seismic shift for the franchise if it comes to fruition.

Reinsdorf, now 88 years old, is one of the more controversial owners in the sport. He bought the club in 1981 for about $20MM and has since developed a reputation for being on the meddlesome side, leading to reports of tumult from within the organization. Reinsdorf only owns an estimated 19% stake in the club, according to Forbes, but is nonetheless the principal owner of the club.

The club has had some success during his tenure as owner, including winning the 2005 World Series, but the Sox are at a very low ebb right now. They didn’t make the playoffs from 2009 to 2019, finishing below .500 during the majority of that stretch. A new core seemed to emerge and helped them make the postseason in 2020 and 2021, but that quickly proved to be unsustainable. They dropped to .500 in 2022 and lost 101 games last year before things got even worse in 2024. They lost 121 games this year, setting a new record for losses in the modern era.

Amid that downward slide, plenty of changes have taken place. In August of 2023, president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn were fired after many years with the club. However, that shakeup was followed by the club promoting Chris Getz to general manager from within, seemingly not undertaking an extensive search for external candidates. Manager Pedro Grifol and some coaches were fired in August of 2024. Grady Sizemore took over as interim manager and it’s not yet clear who will be the club’s bench boss for 2025.

Those changes were arguable merited, but as the Sox were nearing their dishonorable place in history this year, Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal put the franchise under the microscope in a lengthy piece for The Athletic last month. In it, various sources traced the club’s misfortunes to Reinsdorf. His slow embrace of analytics, his refusal to invest in amenities or player payroll and his insular loyalty were among the various complaints cited in the piece.

While many of the club’s fans have been clamoring for Reinsdorf to sell the club, it’s possible their wish is being granted in monkey-paw fashion, given who the buyer could be. Stewart is well-known in the baseball world for his playing career and also his post-playing ventures as a coach, executive, agent and stint as general manager of the Diamondbacks. In recent years, he has been involved with a group that has been trying to get an MLB franchise in Nashville, Tennessee. Stewart parted ways with Music City Baseball/the Nashville Stars but told Paul Skrbina of the Nashville Tennessean in May that he still had designs on getting a team to Nashville someday. Per today’s report from Ghiroli, he is now part of a group called Smoke34, a reference to his nickname and jersey number from his playing days. Ghiroli also mentions that Stewart and partner Lonnie Murray are trying to bring a National Women’s Soccer League team to Nashville.

Back in August of 2023, Greg Hinz of Crain’s Chicago Business reported that the Sox were exploring relocating within Chicago but that moving to Nashville was also under consideration. “Ever since the article came out, I’ve been reading about I’ve been threatening to move to Nashville,” Reinsdorf said in response, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “That article didn’t come from me. But if we have six years left, we’ve got to decide what’s the future going to be? We’ll get to it, but I never threatened to move out. We haven’t even begun to have discussions with the Sports Authority, which we’ll have to do soon.” In December, multiple sources (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times) reported that Reinsdorf met with Nashville mayor Freddie O’Connell.

There are still plenty of unknowns with this story and the next steps will require more details to come out. The talks between Reinsdorf and Stewart could in early/exploratory stages or they could be further along. It’s also possible that Stewart’s group is just one of several that Reinsdorf has spoken with or will eventually speak with. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that Reinsdorf is using the threat of relocation to help get a new stadium built in Chicago. As covered previously at MLBTR, the Sox have discussed plans about a new stadium in Chicago’s South Loop on a parcel of land known as “The 78.” It’s not uncommon for owners of sports franchises to dangle the threat of relocation in an attempt to extract public money for real estate investments. The Sox, who have a lease at Guaranteed Rate Field through 2029, were reportedly looking to get a billion dollars in public money for their new stadium as of February.

Exploring a sale of the club also doesn’t mean it will ultimately come to pass. In recent years, teams like the Nationals and Angels announced plans to explore the possibility of selling, only to later pull back from those declarations. This situation appears to be somewhat different, in that some discussions have already taken place. Though as mentioned, it’s unclear how extensive those talks have been.

This is the second report this month of a club considering a sale. The Twins, divisional rival of the White Sox, are also on the block. The Pohlad family announced last week that they will explore the possibility of a sale. Reinsdorf is the second-longest active owner in Major League Baseball, trailing only the Steinbrenner family, who have owned the Yankees since 1973.

Luis Arraez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.

Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.

With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.

Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.

Masataka Yoshida Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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12:46 pm: According to Ian Browne of MLB.com, the Red Sox are hoping Yoshida will be back in the lineup and ready to play on Opening Day.

11:44 am: Masataka Yoshida had surgery to repair the labrum in his right shoulder earlier this month, the Red Sox announced. The 31-year-old sat out the final two games of the regular season as he contemplated how to address the shoulder soreness that had bothered him for most of the year. He underwent an MRI after the season, and evidently, the results convinced him and the Red Sox that surgery was the best course of action.

The Red Sox described the procedure as “successful,” though it’s unclear what that means regarding Yoshida’s timeline to return. The usual recovery period for position players who undergo a labrum repair is somewhere between four to six months. Reds infielder Matt McLain had labral repair surgery this past March and initially hoped to return in August before suffering a setback. Meanwhile, Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim had a labrum repair of his own this offseason, and he is hoping to return sometime between mid-April and early May. Kim’s anticipated timeline is slightly longer than McLain’s, but it’s worth noting that Kim’s injury was in his throwing shoulder while McLain’s was not. Yoshida’s injury is also in his throwing shoulder, but as a designated hitter and a left-handed batter, perhaps his recovery timeline will be on the shorter end of the spectrum. If his timeline is similar to McLain’s original goal, he could be ready to return to game action sometime next March.

The 2024 season was complicated for Yoshida in terms of both his injury status and playing time. There was reportedly tension throughout the year between Yoshida and the Red Sox, both because he sought outside opinions regarding a thumb injury against the team’s wishes and because he was unhappy to be limited to a platoon DH role when healthy. Thus, between his injury troubles, defensive shortcomings, and poor performance against left-handed pitching, not to mention any behind-the-scenes tension, Yoshida’s tenure in Boston hasn’t gotten off to the strongest start. It’s fair to wonder if a change of scenery would do him some good, although his recent surgery and the $55.8MM remaining on his contract through 2027 could make a trade difficult to put together.

If Yoshida remains with the Red Sox next season, it’s hard to imagine his role changing all that much. Boston has two of the best defensive corner outfielders in the league, with Jarren Duran manning left field and Wilyer Abreu covering right. Duran can play center as well, but former top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela is far more valuable as an elite defensive center fielder than a stopgap shortstop, and he needs regular playing time if he’s going to improve at the plate. On the offensive side of things, Yoshida is going to need to slowly earn back playing time against left-handed pitchers; he put up a 103 wRC+ against lefties in 2023 but a dreadful 58 wRC+ against southpaws in 2024. Considering the Red Sox will already have at least four lefty batters in the everyday lineup next year – Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Duran, and Abreu – it’s understandable why Cora might prefer to sub out Yoshida for a right-handed bat at DH. Thus, if Yoshida wants to be an everyday player for the Red Sox in 2025, he’ll need to make a quick recovery over the offseason and come to camp ready to address his weaknesses at the plate and in the field.

Alex Cobb Replaced By Ben Lively On Guardians’ ALCS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster change for the Guardians, with right-hander Alex Cobb replaced by fellow righty Ben Lively. MLB didn’t announce the specific nature of Cobb’s injury but the Guards announced it as an acute left low back strain. Per MLB playoff roster rules, a player removed with an injury is not eligible to return during that series nor in the subsequent series. That means that Cobb won’t be available for the World Series if Cleveland makes it, so his season is now over.

It’s an unfortunate development both for Cobb and the Guardians. The club acquired him prior to the deadline a few months ago in the hopes of bolstering their rotation, which had been slowed down both by injuries and underperformance. But Cobb had been having his own injury issues prior to the trade and struggled to stay healthy after it, which will impact his earning power as he heads into free agency this winter.

Cobb, 37, has a lengthy track record that includes a 3.84 earned run average in 233 starts dating back to his 2011 debut. He signed a two-year deal with the Giants for the 2022 and 2023 seasons and pitched rather well. He made 28 starts in each of those seasons, with his ERA coming in a bit below 4.00 in each of them. He tossed 301 innings in those two years with a 3.80 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 59.4% ground ball rate.

He underwent hip surgery in October of 2023 with a six-month recovery estimate but the Giants still felt good enough about his prognosis to exercise a $10MM club option for the 2024 season. The news of his recovery was fairly positive throughout the winter and it seemed there was a chance that he could be pitching in the majors early in 2024, but he got transferred to the 60-day injured list in mid-April after he was slowed by shoulder inflammation. Even at that point, the Giants were hoping for a late-May return but his shoulder discomfort lingered.

He was still on the IL as the trade deadline was approaching but he was rehabbing at the time and the Guardians decided to take a shot on him, sending minor league left-hander Jacob Bresnahan and a player to be named later (later announced as minor league infielder Nate Furman) to San Francisco. The Guards had lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery while hurlers like Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco had struggled badly. Despite the challenges in the rotation, the Cleveland bullpen was the best in baseball in 2024, helping them lead the American League Central for most of the way.

Cobb made his debut for the Guards on August 9 but only made two starts before going back on the IL, this time due to a fractured nail on his right hand. He was reinstated from the IL and made another start for Cleveland in early September but returned to the IL after that, this time due to blisters on his pitching hand.

Though he missed the final few weeks of the season, the Guards added Cobb to their roster for the ALDS against the Tigers. He started the third game of that series but was pulled after three innings, having thrown 41 pitches while allowing two earned runs. He then started the first game of the ALCS against the Yankees last night, tossing 65 pitches but without making it out of the third inning and with three earned runs on his ledger.

Now it seems this back injury will add to a very frustrating season for the veteran, as it’s evidently serious enough that they felt compelled to remove him. As mentioned, he won’t be eligible to return in the ALCS. If they make it to the World Series, he won’t be an option there either.

He’ll be heading into free agency having just turned 37 years old and without much of a platform season. Around the hip recovery, the shoulder problems, the hand issues and now this back strain, he only made the three regular season starts and two more in the postseason, logging a total of 22 innings.

For the Guardians, they will have to try to stay alive with their pitching depth thinned out even further. Without Cobb, they have Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams as their top three starters, with those three able to start the next three contests. By game five, scheduled for Saturday, they may have to consider a bullpen game, with guys like Joey Cantillo or Lively possibilities for bulk innings.

Lively, 32, had a solid year for the Guards in terms of surface-level results but less in terms of underlying numbers. He made 29 starts and logged 159 innings with a 3.81 ERA, but his 18.7% strikeout rate and 41.9% ground ball rate were both subpar. He did keep his walks down to a 7.8% clip and his 6.5% barrel rate was considered by Statcast to be in the 73rd percentile, but his 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest his ERA could be at least slightly misleading. Game two of the ALCS kicks off in the Bronx tonight at 7:38pm local time.

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