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Dodgers Place Gavin Stone On Injured List

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The Dodgers announced they have recalled right-hander Landon Knack and left-hander Justin Wrobleski. In corresponding moves, they have optioned righty Michael Petersen and placed righty Gavin Stone on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation.

At this point, it’s the path forward for Stone is fairly unclear. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says the young righty will be shut down for about ten days and the plan from there will depend on how he feels at that point, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X. It’s likely to be a notable development regardless of how that plays out, both due to Stone’s strong performance this year and the other injuries in the club’s rotation.

Stone made his major league debut last year, making eight appearances, including four starts. He didn’t find immediate success, as he allowed 31 earned runs in his 31 innings last year, meaning he came into 2024 with his earned run average at an even 9.00.

But he has taken a significant step forward so far this year. He has made 25 starts for the Dodgers and logged 140 1/3 innings with a 3.53 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate are all fairly close to average for a starting pitcher this year.

Subtracting that kind of solid performance would be unwelcome for any club but it’s especially notable for the Dodgers, who have been suffering through a huge slate of rotation injuries this year and in the past as well.

Stone is actually the only pitcher on the club currently qualified for the ERA title, as he leads the team in both starts and innings pitched. That’s due to just about every other pitcher on the staff spending at least some time on the IL. Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan are all currently on the IL. Now that Stone is joining them, that gives the club eight viable starters currently on the shelf.

May, Ryan and Sheehan are done for the year due to major surgeries. Yamamoto is going to be reinstated next week but isn’t fully stretched out, having thrown 53 pitches in his most recent rehab outing. Glasnow is a few steps behind Yamamoto, as he’s playing catch but hasn’t yet taken the mound, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link). Kershaw hit the IL a week ago due to a bone spur in his toe and has an uncertain timeline. Gonsolin is trying to come back from last year’s Tommy John surgery but will be limited to relief work, at best.

For now, the rotation consists of Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Knack and Wrobleski. That group will be welcoming back Yamamoto soon but, as mentioned, he isn’t fully ramped up and might need a piggyback. Flaherty has some injury questions of his own, as he had back issues earlier this year with the Tigers, which reportedly scuttled a trade with the Yankees and led to him landing with the Dodgers instead. Buehler has a 5.67 ERA this year and Miller is at 7.79. Knack and Wrobleski each have less than 50 major league innings pitched.

It’s a less than ideal situation for a club that is still playing meaningful games. The club’s 84-56 record is tied with the Phillies for the best in baseball, but the Central-leading Brewers are just three games back, meaning a bye through the Wild Card round is no guarantee. The division isn’t totally sewn up either, as the Padres are just five games back of the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks 5.5.

Even if the Dodgers cruise into the postseason, having a banged-up rotation can cause trouble in a short playoff series, as the Dodgers know well. They won 100 games last year but their rotation was in shambles by the time the postseason rolled around, which led to them being quickly swept by the Diamondbacks.

At this point, it’s still technically possible that the Dodgers could have a postseason rotation consisting of Flaherty, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Stone and Kershaw, but there are question marks with each of them. That could perhaps lead to someone like Buehler, Miller or Knack sliding into the mix simply due to a lack of other options.

Jerry Dipoto Expected To Continue As Mariners Baseball Ops President In 2025

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The Mariners’ second-half collapse led to a managerial change, but it doesn’t seem it’ll spur a shakeup at the top of the front office. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that Mariners’ ownership decided earlier this summer to retain president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto. The report indicates that general manager Justin Hollander — the #2 in baseball operations — will also return.

It seems ownership made the decision not to change the front office at a time when the Mariners looked to be on their way to an AL West title. They got out to a strong start as the Astros and Rangers were struggling and jumped out to a big lead in the American League West. As of June 18, they had a ten-game lead, but things have turned sour since then. They have cooled as the Astros caught fire, so that Seattle now sits 4.5 games behind Houston in the division. It was amid this free fall that Servais was dismissed and replaced by Dan Wilson.

While the circumstances have changed for the worse, Divish and Jude write that Dipoto’s job status is not contingent on the team salvaging a now unlikely playoff berth. The Mariners have never been forthcoming with details on Dipoto’s contract. Divish and Jude suggest the sides might have quietly worked out an extension earlier in the year without announcing it publicly. According to the report, Hollander signed a multi-year extension when he was promoted to GM back in October 2022.

The upcoming season will be Dipoto’s 10th at the helm in Seattle. The M’s have made the playoffs once during his tenure. They snapped a 21-year playoff drought in 2022 and knocked out the Blue Jays in the Wild Card series. They were swept by the Astros in the Division Series. Seattle narrowly missed the postseason last year, ending just behind Houston and the Rangers in a tightly-contested AL West. They finished the season at 88-74.

While the M’s missed the postseason in two of the past three years, they won between 88 and 90 games in each. Expectations were understandably high coming into this season. Seattle has arguably the best starting rotation in the majors. While the front office was seemingly hamstrung by ownership’s payroll constraints that prevented them from making a huge free agent splash, the Mariners acquired Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley in an effort to reshape the offense.

None of Garver, Polanco or Haniger have played up to expectations. Julio Rodríguez has slumped through the worst season of his career. Despite bringing in Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner at the deadline, Seattle’s offense has fallen flat. They entered play Thursday with a .217/.304/.365 team batting line. That’s unacceptable production even in MLB’s toughest home park for hitters. Their fortunes haven’t changed since the deadline. The M’s own a .213/.319/.350 slash going back to July 30.

Today’s win over Oakland pushed the Mariners back above .500 at 71-70. There’s a good chance they land above .500 for the fourth straight season, but a win total in the mid-80s would be an obvious disappointment. They’d need a huge 17-4 finish to match last season’s record. Winning 88 games again would probably have been enough to take the AL West in what has been a down year for the division. They’re very unlikely to get there, though, and they’d need a major slump from the Astros to avoid missing the playoffs again.

To Dipoto’s credit, there are plenty of positives to his tenure. Seattle has been one of the best pitching development organizations in the game. They hit on first-round selections of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, while mid-round picks Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have blossomed into high-quality arms. The M’s acquired and extended Luis Castillo while locking up Rodríguez as the face of the franchise on a deal that could span the better part of two decades. Even with Rodríguez’s down year, that’s probably not one the organization regrets.

Nevertheless, the bottom line results have not gotten the team into October with any kind of regularity. They rebuilt early in Dipoto’s tenure — probably the right call considering the team’s payroll outlook and thin farm system at the time — but they’ve been in win-now mode for at least the last four seasons. Barring a late push, they’ll only have one playoff appearance in that stretch.

Dipoto has been the sport’s most aggressive executive on the trade front. They’ll again head into the offseason needing to reshape the lineup. That should portend another trade-heavy winter in Seattle, one they hope will get them past Houston in Wilson’s first full season as manager.

Giants Extend Matt Chapman

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The Giants made a major splash overnight, announcing that they’ve extended the contract of third baseman Matt Chapman. The deal guarantees Chapman $151MM over six years and runs from 2025 to 2030, with a $25MM annual salary and a $1MM signing bonus paid out in 2025. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Chapman’s deal contains a no-trade clause.

Chapman, 31, signed with the Giants on a three-year deal worth $54MM with opt outs after each season over the offseason when his market didn’t develop to expected levels last winter. In the months since then, it’s become apparent that the first of those opt-out opportunities would be exercised as the infielder has largely quelled his doubters with his best season in half a decade. His first season in a Giants uniform has seen him post a strong .247/.343/.445 slash line, good for a 118 wRC+, in 136 games. In addition to a strong season at the plate, he’s also put together his most impressive defensive season in years with +7 OAA and +13 DRS, his best showing in either metric since 2021.

With Chapman poised to return to free agency in search of a bigger contract elsewhere, the Giants have now made sure that he’ll remain with the club for the foreseeable future. The third baseman’s deal figures to keep him in San Francisco through the end of his age-37 season, and matches the six-year, $150MM prediction we at MLBTR made regarding Chapman’s contract ahead of the 2023-24 offseason almost exactly. The contract is representative of the potential upside that players who take opt-out laden deals can find if their initial foray into free agency doesn’t go according to plan; Chapman now figures to ultimately walk away from his time with the Giants having pocketed $169MM over seven years, though of course this outcome required not only a healthy season from the 31-year-old but his best season overall since 2019.

By staying in San Francisco long-term, Chapman ensures that he will spend the majority of his playing career in the Bay Area. The longtime Athletic was selected 25th overall by Oakland in the 2014 draft and made his debut with the club back in 2017.  He’d ultimately spend the first five seasons of his career in an A’s uniform, earning three Gold Glove awards, finishing in the top 10 of AL MVP voting twice, and making his first and so far only career All-Star game during that time. When the A’s began a total rebuild following the 2021 season, however, he was shipped to Toronto just before the 2022 campaign began and spend two years in Toronto. Now that Chapman is on a long-term deal with the Bay Area’s other MLB team, one of the stars of the Athletics’ final playoff team in Oakland will outlast the team itself in the community as the club stands poised to relocate following the 2024 campaign.

As for the Giants, the deal represents the second largest financial outlay in the club’s history and is dwarfed only by Buster Posey’s $166.5MM guarantee in his early-career extension with the team. By keeping Chapman in the fold, San Francisco locks up a potential cornerstone after failing in multiple well-documented pursuits of star players in recent years, ranging from Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton to more recent pursuits of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. While Chapman doesn’t have the star power of any of those players, he’s a reliable defender and source of power at third base who offers a solid floor of 3 WAR on an annual basis, with upside much higher than that when he’s at his best.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Chapman’s reliability could decline on both sides of the ball as he enters his mid 30’s, a particularly notable caveat given the fact that he’ll play next season at 32 years old. At the same time, the deal makes Chapman the latest long-term piece put into place by a Giants club that has seemed somewhat listless in recent years as they search for an identity and struggle to contend in the era following the departures of Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford. Alongside Chapman, the club has Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison locked into the rotation, Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos in the outfield, and Patrick Bailey behind the plate through at least the end of the 2028 campaign. That’s a core of talent that could compete for a playoff spot in the coming years if properly supplemented, which is a clear step in the right direction for a franchise that appears to be trending towards its third consecutive sub-.500 finish this year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Drew Thorpe To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery To Remove Bone Spur

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White Sox right-hander Drew Thorpe is set to undergo season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow, as relayed by MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. Merkin adds that the club announcement details that Thorpe, who has been on the injured list the past month due to a flexor strain, is expected to be ready for Spring Training with no restrictions.

Thorpe made plenty of headlines this winter when he was included in not one but two separate blockbuster trades over the offseason. First, the Yankees swapped their second-round pick from the 2022 draft to the Padres as part of the package that brought Juan Soto to the Bronx. Just three months later, Thorpe was on the move yet again as he was shipped to Chicago in order to bring right-hander Dylan Cease to San Diego. The hype surrounding Thorpe that led him to be included in two of last winter’s biggest trades was based in his status as a consensus top-100 prospect who had just finished up a dominant 2023 season with the Yankees that saw him post a 1.48 ERA in his first taste of Double-A action down the stretch.

Upon suiting up for the White Sox for the first time back in April, Thorpe was sent back to the Double-A level and continued to display the dominance he had shown during his time with New York. In 60 innings of work across 11 starts, Thorpe posted a 1.35 ERA despite his strikeout rate dropping from the eye-popping 34% rate he flashed with the Yankees last year to a more pedestrian 25%, and by the time the calendar flipped to June the White Sox decided that Thorpe needed a bigger challenge. Rather than promote him to the Triple-A level and test him there, the club opted to promote him directly to Chicago. Thorpe impressed in his first big league start as he struck out four across five innings of one-run ball, though his second outing against the Diamondbacks saw the right-hander allow seven earned runs on six hits and five walks in 3 1/3 innings of work.

The ups and downs of Thorpe’s first two starts would continue throughout his first taste of big league action. He rattled off a stretch of five excellent starts throughout the end of June and start of July where he posted a microscopic 1.23 ERA despite a diminished 17.9% strikeout rate that stood out as a potential red flag. Those concerns promptly came to pass, as what would prove to be Thorpe’s final two starts of the year saw him lit up to the tune of a 22.24 ERA as he surrendered 14 runs on just 5 2/3 innings across the pair of outings. In that time, he allowed four walks and four home runs while striking out just one batter.

Given those deep struggles, it’s perhaps somewhat reassuring that the heralded prospect has been dealing with significant physical issues that could help to explain not only his lackluster 5.48 ERA in his first taste of big league action but also the diminished strikeout rates he posted throughout his first year in the White Sox organization. That relative lack of strikeouts was paired with a fastball that averaged just 91.1 mph in the majors this year, a noticeable decrease compared to scouting reports that noted his ability to routinely sit at 92 and touch 95 with his heater.

With the White Sox in the midst of a lost season in which they’re flirting with the worst record in major league history and Thorpe currently expected to be ready for action in time for Spring Training next year, perhaps the youngster’s upcoming surgery is a sign that fans on the south side have a healthy, more effective Thorpe to look forward to next year. In the meantime, the Sox figure to rely on a rotation featuring Garrett Crochet, Jonathan Cannon, Chris Flexen, Nick Nastrini, and Davis Martin down the stretch.

Royals Claim Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman

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The Royals are bolstering their outfield with a pair of veterans, as K.C. has claimed both Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers.  The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported (X link) that Pham was claimed off the Cardinals’ waiver wire after St. Louis designated him for assignment yesterday, and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (via X) reported that the Royals also claimed Grossman away from the Rangers.  Texas placed Grossman on outright waivers on Thursday.

Because these additions were made before September 1, Pham and Grossman would be eligible for the Royals’ postseason roster if K.C. makes it into the playoff bracket.  Coming off a dismal 106-loss season in 2023, the Royals have already far surpassed last year’s win total by posting a 75-61 record — Kansas City is in possession of the second AL wild card berth, and sit 2.5 games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central.

Despite this success, the outfield has been a clear weak link for K.C. for much of the season, and the ranks got even further thinned when Hunter Renfroe was placed on the injured list last week.  Beyond losing Renfroe, the Royals’ lineup took another big hit when Vinnie Pasquantino suffered a broken thumb Thursday and will likely miss the rest of the regular season.

The Royals were one of several teams who had interest in Pham prior to the trade deadline, when Pham was a very obvious trade candidate as a veteran rental on a rebuilding White Sox team.  The Cardinals ended up with Pham and Erick Fedde as part of a three-team trade involving the Dodgers and White Sox at the deadline, as St. Louis was hoping that Pham and right-hander Erick Fedde could boost both the lineup and rotation heading into the playoff stretch.

Unfortunately for Cards Nation, no surge materialized, as the Cardinals have an 11-16 record in August.  Pham himself didn’t provide much help, hitting .206/.286/.368 over 77 plate appearances during his brief stint in a St. Louis uniform.

Since Pham both wanted more playing time and wanted to join a contender, he discussed the possibility of a release with the Cardinals, and that wish has now been fully granted with the move across Missouri to the Royals.  From the Cardinals’ perspective, parting ways with Pham both created more outfield playing time for Jordan Walker, and saved a bit of payroll.  Pham has roughly $480K remaining on his original $3MM salary for the 2024 season, and Kansas City will now foot the rest of that bill.

The switch-hitting Grossman also began his season as a member of the White Sox, but was traded in May back to the Rangers, as Texas was thin on right-handed hitting.  Grossman was a known quantity in Arlington after being a regular for the 2023 World Series team, and he posted similar numbers in his second go-around as a Ranger, batting .238/.336/.362 over 122 PA for Texas this season.

The Rangers’ defense of their title has fallen far short of expectations, and thus the team put both Grossman and fellow outfielder Travis Jankowski on outright waivers to see if another team would clear a few dollars off the Rangers’ books.  Grossman has about $240K remaining of his $1.5MM base salary, so it makes for another inexpensive add for the Royals.

Grossman has continued to mash left-handed pitching and Pham has continued to post solid numbers against southpaws as well, giving Kansas City two new options to work within the lineup.  Either player could slot into Renfroe’s role as a regular right fielder who cedes some at-bats against righties to Adam Frazier, or either Pham or Grossman could spell MJ Melendez (another left-handed bat) in left field.  With the DH spot also up for grabs, it isn’t hard to imagine Pham or Grossman moving into more or less everyday roles, at least until Renfroe is able to return.

The Royals will be the ninth team Pham has suited up with at the MLB level over the course of his 11 big league seasons, while Grossman is joining his eighth team in a 12-year career in the Show.  The duo bring plenty of experience to a young Royals team, and we just need to look back to 2023 to see how Grossman and Pham (after he joined the Diamondbacks) can help out a playoff contender.

With a playoff berth hanging in the balance, general manager J.J. Picollo has now moved aggressively to try and address his team’s lineup needs before the September 1 cutoff date.  Depending on what happens in the pennant race, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Royals make other additions to try and just get into October, even if any newcomers after September 1 wouldn’t be part of any playoff rosters.

Royals To Acquire Yuli Gurriel

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4:49pm: While Gurriel has been on the minor league injured list with the Braves for just over a week now, Romero reports that the veteran is en route to Houston to report to the big league Royals amid their series against the Astros. The Royals did not need to add Gurriel to their 40-man roster upon acquiring him today due to the fact that he was on a minor league deal, but they’ll need to make corresponding moves to add him to the 40-man and active rosters in order to promote him to the majors.

4:19pm: The Royals are acquiring first baseman Yuli Gurriel, according to a report from Francys Romero. Gurriel, 40, has been with the Braves on a minor league contract this year. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Braves are receiving cash considerations in return for Gurriel’s services. Despite the trade deadline having passed last month, Gurriel was still eligible to be traded because he hasn’t played in the major leagues yet this season. The Royals subsequently announced the move.

Gurriel, 40, has played in the majors each of the last eight seasons after coming over following 15 years in Cuba’s Serie Nacional. Most of the veteran’s time in the majors was spent in Houston, for whom he played first base with occasional cameos at second and third. In seven years with the Astros, Gurriel slashed a solid .284/.328/.448 with a wRC+ of 111. That includes an excellent 2021 season with the club where he hit .319 en route to the AL batting title and earned his only career Gold Glove award. After a down 2022 season, Gurriel departed the Astros (who replaced him at first base with an ill-fated contract for Jose Abreu) but found a roster spot in Miami as a part-time first baseman and DH.

The veteran’s time in Miami did not produce the bounceback season he was surely hoping for, as Gurriel slashed just .245/.304/.359 (76 wRC+) with a career-high 13.4% strikeout rate and a career-worst .114 isolated slugging percentage. A second straight difficult season left Gurriel unable to find a roster spot ahead of his age-40 season, leaving him to catch on with Atlanta back in April. With the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett, Gurriel has looked impressive with a .292/.378/.495 slash line with 12 homers, 18 doubles, and a triple in just 333 trips to the plate this year.

Amid injuries around the Braves infield to Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies and that strong performance, the Braves even began to experiment with Gurriel at second and third base as they seemingly toyed with the possibility of a big league call-up for the veteran, though big league deals for Whit Merrifield and Gio Urshela closed the doors to joining the major league club in fairly short order. While Gurriel won’t make the majors with the Braves this year, another door has now opened up for the veteran as he searches for an opening to participate in his ninth major league season. Much like the Braves, the Royals also lost a key piece of their infield mix to injury recently when first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino suffered a broken thumb that Kansas City announced yesterday will sideline him for six to eight weeks.

That leaves a young Royals club that’s surging toward what would be their first playoff appearance since their World Series championship back in 2015 without one of their top hitters, and while the team added veterans Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman to their outfield mix earlier today those moves did little to shore up first base. Gurriel does just that by adding a longtime veteran at the position to the fold, offering them additional depth and a contact-oriented bat at the position down the stretch. The Royals have been relying on a combination of Nick Loftin and veteran backstop Salvador Perez on days where he isn’t behind the plate to take over for Pasquantino since he went on the shelf.

2024-25 Free Agent Power Rankings: Late August

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Since Opening Day, MLBTR has taken periodic looks at the upcoming free agent class. This is our third (and likely final) installment of our in-season power rankings. Players still have a month and potential postseason play to move things around, yet the class is coming into focus.

There’s no suspense at the top of the list. The 1-2 have remained unchanged from start to finish (although the gap between 2 and 3 has closed in the past few weeks). This is our attempt to capture a player’s earning power, so age is big factor. This is not strictly a list of the best players in the class, though talent is obviously the starting point.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. We worked with Darragh McDonald — with input from MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes — for this installment. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are eligible for the list. Stats are through play on August 29.

  1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees

Soto has been the clear top free agent in the class for years. He has been on track for a record-setting deal (in terms of total guarantee, AAV or both) for a while. To top it off, Soto is amidst arguably his best season during his platform year. He has already established a new career mark in home runs. He’s going to hit 40 for the first time and could top 45 by year’s end. Soto is hitting .291/.421/.590 on the season. This will be his fifth consecutive season with more walks than strikeouts.

Approaching his 26th birthday, Soto is ostensibly at the beginning of his prime. There’s not much room for him to get better, but a signing team could realistically expect another seven to 10 years of elite offensive production. Soto’s league-best strike zone awareness should age gracefully. It’s essentially unheard of for teams to be able to sign a player who is on an inner circle Hall of Fame trajectory with another four full seasons before he turns 30. Every high-payroll organization should be involved.

While Soto generally doesn’t provide a ton of defensive value, he’s having a decent season in that regard. He has a career-high five defensive runs saved in nearly 1100 innings. Statcast has him right around average. Soto could move to designated hitter in the latter half of a deal that exceeds a decade but shouldn’t have any issue sticking in right field for the foreseeable future.

Soto turned down a reported $440MM extension offer from the Nationals a few years ago. His camp subsequently rebuffed overtures from the Padres and Soto shut down any chatter about a potential midseason deal with the Yankees in June. He’ll be three years younger than Shohei Ohtani was during his free agency. Soto isn’t likely to accept a deal with the kind of deferrals that Ohtani took, but he should handily beat the approximate $461MM net present value of the Ohtani contract. He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t be surprising if his camp at the Boras Corporation were aiming for something close to or north of $600MM and/or multiple opt-out chances.

2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles

Burnes has been the #1 pitcher in the class throughout the summer. He has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in four straight years, highlighted by his ERA-leading 2021 season in Milwaukee. Burnes is having a good year, working to a 3.23 earned run average across 164 1/3 innings. His production has slipped coming out of the All-Star Break though. He carried a 2.43 ERA into the Break but is allowing more than five earned runs per nine in 45 2/3 innings in the second half.

The recent results are the continuation of a slightly alarming trend. Burnes was among the game’s top two or three strikeout artists a couple seasons ago. That has gone in the wrong direction over the last two years. After fanning north of 30% of opponents in each season from 2020-22, his strikeout rate dipped to 25.5% last year. It is down three more percentage points during his first (and potentially only) season in Baltimore. Burnes had a 23.3% strikeout rate before the Break and is fanning a slightly below-average 20% of batters faced within the past six weeks.

There hasn’t been an obvious corresponding downturn in his stuff. Burnes is averaging a personal-high 95.5 MPH on the cutter that serves as his primary pitch. The speed on his breaking pitches is in line with his career marks. Yet as his velocity has picked up throughout the season, the whiffs have dropped. Opponents have jumped all over his cutter and curveball in uncharacteristic fashion this month.

None of this means Burnes is no longer a good pitcher. He’s in the top 30 among pitchers (minimum 100 innings) in both ERA and swinging strike rate. Burnes is averaging over six innings per start. He hasn’t had a non-illness related stint on the injured list in four years. There’s some amount of concern with every pitcher in the class and Burnes provides the best combination of durability track record and ace upside. Still, teams will need to determine how concerned they are about his two-year dip in swinging strikes when considering whether to meet an asking price that’ll very likely remain north of $200MM.

3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros

Early this season, Bregman looked headed for a lost year. The former No. 2 overall pick was hitting .201/.270/.264 as deep into the season as May 12 — a span of 160 plate appearances. At that point, it was fair to wonder whether he’d be able to turn his season around.

Bregman has done that in spades. Over his past 388 plate appearances, he’s hitting .284/.335/.518 with 20 homers, 20 doubles, two triples and his typical above-average glovework at the hot corner. His overall season batting line is still skewed by that ugly start, but for the past 87 games, Bregman’s 3.6 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs) rank 15th in all of baseball.

It’s worth emphasizing that even throughout this turnaround, however, Bregman isn’t quite the same superstar-level hitter he once was. He’s been 42% better than average during this run, by measure of wRC+. That’s still great, but it’s a ways shy of the elite levels of offensive output he delivered in 2018-19, when he finished fifth and second in AL MVP voting, respectively. Bregman’s once outstanding plate discipline has faded this season as well. After walking in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018-23, he’s down to 6.8% in 2024. It’s the first time he’s had a below-average walk rate since his 49-game rookie season back in 2016.

Some teams might be turned off by Bregman’s batted-ball data as well — an issue that harmed Cody Bellinger’s free agency last offseason. Though Bregman has long been a plus hitter, he’s never made loads of hard contact. He’s sitting on an 89.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.4% hard-hit rate this year. Both marks are only a bit higher than the league average, but they’re higher than Bregman’s career 88.8 mph and 37.8% marks in those respective categories.

Some might think Bregman to be a product of Minute Maid Park’s friendly dimensions. The short left field porch, the Crawford Boxes, sits only 315 feet down the line. That’s surely benefited Bregman throughout his career and perhaps even informed his swing mechanics and approach at the plate. However, Bregman also flat-out hits wherever he is. The difference between his rate stats at home (.271/.371/.475) and on the road (.275/.363/.489) are negligible. If anything, he’s hit for slightly more power on the road than at home.

Even setting aside his ’18-’19 peak, Bregman has been a consistently standout player in the five seasons since. He’s batted .261/.352/.443 during that time, shown elite contact skills (12.6% strikeout rate) and played above-average defense at an important position. Bregman never settled in as a perennial MVP candidate, but he’s averaged 25 homers and better than four wins above replacement (4.4 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR) per 162 games since 2020. Teams are going to covet his hard-nosed personality as well; one general manager who’d like to sign Bregman told ESPN’s Jeff Passan that he would “completely change our clubhouse for the better.”

The MLBTR team is perhaps more divided on Bregman’s earning power than any other player on this list, but we generally agree there’s a clear nine-figure deal to be had here. Heading into his age-31 season significantly limits him, however. The question is whether the market views him with some trepidation and tries to stick in the low $100MMs or whether interest is bullish enough to push Bregman close to the $200MM range — despite minimal precedent for such a contract at his age. How he finishes the season will be a key factor.

4. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Adames has rebounded from his worst offensive showing in Milwaukee. He slumped to a .217 average with a .310 on-base mark a year ago, but he’s up to a .252/.337/.451 slash over 572 plate appearances this season. Adames has already matched last year’s total of 24 homers and has a shot to get to 30 longballs for the second time in his career. That’s not easy to find at the infield’s toughest positions. Among primary shortstops, only Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor have more homers than Adames’ 79 over the past three seasons.

He pairs that above-average power with a patient approach. Adames has walked in more than 11% of his plate appearances in consecutive seasons. He doesn’t have great pure contact skills and his strikeout rate has spiked over the past couple months. While the whiffs keep Adames a tier below the game’s elite infielders, he’s an above-average regular who routinely draws praise from teammates and coaches for his leadership and clubhouse presence.

Traditionally, Adames’ glove is one of his calling cards. He has been a plus defender for the bulk of his career. This year’s defensive performance has been erratic. Statcast has graded him as an average defender, while Defensive Runs Saved has been very down on his work (12 runs below average). It’ll be his first season with a subpar DRS since his 2018 rookie year.

Adames has committed 17 errors this year, fourth-most among shortstops. Statcast still credits him with plus range and arm strength. He’s not showing signs of physical decline. The walk year isn’t an ideal time for Adames’ defensive performance to crater, but this season’s poor numbers seem like more of an aberrant spike in errors than an indication that he’s losing athleticism that’ll force him off the position.

As he approaches his 29th birthday, Adames has pulled away from Ha-Seong Kim as the top shortstop in the class. He’s far better than anyone who was available in last winter’s group of shortstops. Adames should beat nine figures and has an argument for a six- or seven-year deal that puts him in the $150MM+ range. Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson all leveraged this general profile into strong contracts. None of those deals have worked out well, so perhaps teams will round down on Adames, but the market has thus far placed a lot of value in shortstops with power.

5. Blake Snell, SP, Giants *

Two months ago, Snell had fallen off this list. How things have changed. The two-time Cy Young winner is back. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored at greater length in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Snell has been the best pitcher in baseball for two months. Since the start of July, he carries a 1.30 ERA with an MLB-best 37.1% strikeout rate through 55 2/3 innings. His 18% swinging strike rate over that stretch easily leads all pitchers with 40+ innings. He has reached 10 strikeouts in four of his last six starts. He followed up a career-high 15 punchouts against the Rockies on July 27 with an 11-strikeout no-hitter of the Reds in his first appearance of August.

Snell’s disastrous start to the year feels like a distant memory. He signed late and allowed more than a run per inning through his first 23 2/3 frames. He had two stints on the injured list related to left groin issues. Snell’s sheer dominance since returning from his second IL stay makes it seem like he simply wasn’t healthy for the first couple months.

While Snell has been famously streaky throughout his career, few pitchers can match his highs. Over the last three seasons, he owns a 2.93 earned run average with a 32% strikeout rate over 387 innings. Even Burnes probably doesn’t have Snell’s ceiling at this point, though the left-hander has not been as consistent as the Baltimore ace.

Unless he suffers an injury in the next few weeks, Snell is a virtual lock to decline his $30MM player option for next season. He’ll return to free agency at age 32 and likely take another swing at the kind of deal that alluded him a year ago. Snell recently refuted (X link via Foul Territory) a report that the Yankees had offered him a six-year, $150MM deal last winter. It’s not clear what kind of money was on the table, but it wasn’t sufficient for Snell and his camp at the Boras Corporation to consider it preferable to the two-year guarantee that he ultimately signed with the Giants. He’ll try again without being tied to draft compensation and could take aim at a deal in the $150-200MM range.

6. Matt Chapman, 3B, Giants *

As with Snell, Chapman signed with the Giants late in the winter upon not finding a long-term deal to his liking. He started the year slowly, running a .266 on-base percentage through the season’s first month. Chapman has been fantastic since then, slashing .251/.349/.458 since the start of May. He’s up to a .244/.331/.440 mark with 21 homers across 562 plate appearances — offense that checks in 17 percentage points above league average, as measured by wRC+.

That’s par for the course for Chapman. While he’s been prone to significant swings in performance within seasons, his results at the end of the year tend to be consistent. He’ll hit around 25 homers with enough walks to offset a higher than average strikeout rate and middling batting average.

Chapman pairs that solid offense with some of the best third base defense in the majors. He’s a four-time Gold Glove winner who still rates as one of the game’s top glovemen. Chapman will play next season at 32, so his athleticism and defensive metrics might drop off within the next few seasons, but he’s one of the better all-around infielders in the majors right now.

The Giants have already opened extension talks with Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corp. He’s a Fullerton product who has a strong relationship with San Francisco manager Bob Melvin. Chapman looks likelier than anyone else on this list to sign an extension before free agency opens as a result. If he makes it to the open market, he could seek a five-year deal that exceeds $100MM.

7. Max Fried, SP, Braves

Fried established himself in the Atlanta rotation by 2019. He has been a consistent top-of-the-rotation presence since then. Over the past five-plus years, the 30-year-old southpaw has a 3.09 ERA over 139 starts. Fried hasn’t been quite as effective in the postseason, but he’s one of the biggest reasons for the Braves’ recent run of success.

The former seventh overall pick doesn’t miss bats at the level of a typical ace. He has a career 23.8% strikeout rate and has fanned 22.8% of batters faced this season. His 10.1% swinging strike rate is a hair below average. Fried excels in contact management. His 58.1% ground-ball rate is fourth among pitchers with 100+ innings. He has a five-year track record of suppressing hard contact. While Fried’s 93-94 MPH fastball isn’t overpowering, his secondary stuff (especially his curveball) is excellent.

The biggest concern with Fried is his recent injury history. A forearm strain cost him three months between May and August last summer. Fried spent a couple weeks on the injured list with ulnar neuritis coming out of the All-Star Break this season. He hasn’t pitched especially well since coming back, allowing a 5.26 ERA (albeit with a strong 27.7% strikeout rate) over his last 25 2/3 innings. It’s possible teams will have some trepidation about his arm health, but Fried has an argument for a deal in the Patrick Corbin ($140MM) or Carlos Rodón ($162MM) range if he finishes strong.

8. Jack Flaherty, SP, Dodgers *

If Fried offers consistency despite pedestrian strikeout totals, Flaherty is a more volatile upside play. The 28-year-old righty has some of the best bat-missing stuff in the majors. He has punched out 31.1% of batters faced behind a 13.6% swinging strike rate over 23 starts. He’s fifth in strikeout rate and 11th in whiffs among pitchers with 100+ innings. Flaherty has paired that with a career-low 4.8% walk rate, firing 135 frames of 3.07 ERA ball.

Excellent as his production has been this season, Flaherty is a year removed from posting a 4.99 earned run average between the Cardinals and Orioles. He has looked like a Game 1 starter at his best and a back-of-the-rotation arm at his worst.

Flaherty battled oblique and shoulder injuries between 2020-22, limiting him to 154 2/3 innings over that stretch. He has not been on the injured list in the last two years, yet that hasn’t silenced questions about his health. The Yankees reportedly pulled out of a preliminary deadline deal with the Tigers after identifying an undisclosed concern in his medical review. The Dodgers apparently didn’t share such concerns, as they sent prospects Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney to Detroit thereafter.

Entering his age-29 season, Flaherty is one of the younger pitchers in the class. He doesn’t have the consistency of a $200MM arm but could land in the lower nine figures on a deal similar to Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with Seattle.

9. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

The personification of the prototypical slugger, Alonso has been the second most consistent power hitter in the game since his 2019 debut. In that time, only Aaron Judge’s 225 home runs top Alonso’s 220 for the MLB lead. The Polar Bear simply mashes. He’s never hit fewer than 37 homers in a full 162-game season. He’s as durable as they come, never missing more than 10 games in a season since debuting, and the only two players with more plate appearances than Alonso since 2019 are Marcus Semien and Freddie Freeman. Teams know Alonso is likelier than most to be out there every day, and he’s assuredly going to hit for more power than nearly any of his peers.

On the other hand, Alonso will turn 30 in the offseason. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal. His defense at first base is not considered to be strong. Alonso walks at an above-average but not-elite clip. Paired with his low batting averages, that typically limits his on-base percentage to the .330 to .340 range.

None of those are glaring flaws on their own, but bundled together they could make for a concerning profile among today’s front offices. A 30-year-old slugger without defensive value who sports pedestrian OBP marks and is tied to draft pick compensation — that’s not a recipe for a mega-contract. Modern teams have been increasingly wary of paying a first-base-only profile late into their 30s — or even signing such players to truly long-term deals as well.

Freeman (six years, $162MM) and Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130MM) both inked long-term deals beginning with their age-32 seasons. Alonso is younger but also not considered as complete a hitter as those two were when they signed. It’s easy to imagine Alonso and Scott Boras wanting to top Freeman, but Alonso could have a hard time climbing to such heights.

10. Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles

Santander’s been a quality power hitter for the Orioles for years now, but he picked the right time to take his game to another level. The 29-year-old switch-hitter popped 33 home runs back in 2022 but surpassed that mark weeks ago. He’s currently sitting on a career-high 38 home runs. A 40-homer campaign seems like a lock, and Santander could finish with 45 to 50 homers if he enjoys a hot September.

Even if this is a career year in terms of power output, Santander has proven himself a perennial 30-homer threat. He does damage from both sides of the plate, though he’s a more pure lefty hitter. Santander draws more walks, strikes out less often and is a generally well-rounded hitter from the left side. From the right side, he morphs into more of a three-true-outcomes slugger. It all balances out for steady production that any club would be happy to plug into the middle of its lineup.

As is usually the case, the impressive power profile isn’t without its flaws. Santander is limited to the outfield corners (plus some briefer cameos at first base) and doesn’t grade out as a plus defender anywhere. He’s a passable enough right fielder, showing above-average arm strength to go along with plodding range, but no one’s ever going to claim Santander is an elite defender. He’s a bat-first player who figures to slow down as he enters his 30s. It’s reasonable to think that by the second half of a contract, he’ll be a clearly below-average defender in the outfield.

Even at the plate, Santander is a free-swinger who doesn’t walk like the quintessential slugger. He has a slightly above-average walk rate from the right side of the dish but is below-average from the left side. Overall, he’s walked in just 7.1% of his career plate appearances, including a below-average 8% in 2024. Santander doesn’t strike out much (20.7% career, 19.4% in 2024), but he’s still prone to low OBPs because he broadly lacks patience.

Much of what was said regarding Alonso applies here, too. Santander has more defensive value as a currently playable outfielder but a less consistent track record of 40-homer power. But like Alonso, he’ll reject a qualifying offer and head into free agency as a 30-year-old slugger with OBP questions and middling defensive contributions. While Alonso’s regular display of 40-homer pop makes him feel like a lock to reach five years, Santander could be hard-pressed to find that length. A high-AAV three- or four-year contract will likely be in play as one of the best non-Soto power bats on the market.

* Denotes ineligible for qualifying offer

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Cody Bellinger *, Gerrit Cole *^, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernández, Clay Holmes, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Manaea, Tyler O’Neill, Nick Pivetta, Jurickson Profar, Max Scherzer *, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander *, Christian Walker

^ Cole has the ability to opt out of the final four years and $144MM remaining on his deal at season’s end. If he triggers the opt-out, the Yankees can void it by exercising a $36MM option covering the 2029 season — bringing their commitment to five years and $180MM. MLBTR explored the Cole situation in detail in a post for Front Office subscribers this week.

Vinnie Pasquantino To Miss Six To Eight Weeks With Broken Thumb

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3:30pm: The Royals announced that Pasquantino has been placed on the 10-day injured list with Loftin recalled as the corresponding move.

10:30am: The Royals announced that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino has a broken right thumb. He is scheduled for further testing today but the club says he won’t be able to return for six to eight weeks. Given that timeline, he’ll miss the remainder of the regular season and would need the club to put together a deep postseason run to be a factor late in October.

During last night’s game against the Astros, Yainer Diaz hit a comebacker to right-hander Lucas Erceg, who attempted to field the ball with his bare hand. Erceg knocked the ball down, picked it up and fired to first. The ball arrived at the bag around the same time as Diaz, who made contact with Pasquantino as the first baseman attempted to field the throw (Video link from MLB.com). Both Erceg and Pasquantino were visibly injured and removed from the game after the play. Manager Matt Quatraro told reporters after the game that both players would undergo X-rays, per broadcaster Joel Goldberg on X.

The Royals haven’t yet provided an update on Erceg, but the news on Pasquantino is devastating. He’s been a key bat for the club this year, hitting 19 home runs while limiting his strikeout rate to 12.8%. His .262/.315/.446 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 106.

That’s only six percent better than league average but the Royals have had a fairly top-heavy offense this year. Bobby Witt Jr. has been elite and Salvador Perez has been great, but there’s a big drop-off without Pasquantino in the mix. The only others players on the team with an above-average wRC+ this year are Freddy Fermin, Michael Massey and Paul DeJong. Fermin’s output is fuelled by a .344 batting average on balls in play that he will struggle to maintain while DeJong has been a boom-and-bust players for years, alternating between home run surges and big strikeout woes.

The lineup looks a lot less imposing without Pasquantino in it and the Royals will now have to proceed in his absence. Despite that fairly middling offense, the club has been able to ride Witt’s amazing season and a strong rotation to a record of 75-60. They are in the middle of a three-way battle for the Central division, currently 1.5 games back of the Guardians but two ahead of the Twins. Both the Royals and Twins currently hold Wild Card spots, with Boston 3.5 games back of Minnesota for the final slot.

The club will now have to navigate the remainder of the regular season and at least the beginning of the playoffs while figuring out a solution at first base. Perez has gotten into 35 games there, including 31 starts, usually with Pasquantino slotting in as the designated hitter. Perhaps Perez will play first more often but Fermin won’t be able to catch every day, so Perez will have to be behind the plate from time to time.

Perhaps the club will turn to one of Nick Loftin or CJ Alexander, as both are multi-positional guys capable of playing first and each is having a good season in Triple-A. Loftin is slashing .331/.422/.509 for the Storm Chasers while Alexander is hitting .303/.352/.554. But neither player has hit in the majors yet, as Loftin has a line of .236/.316/.305 in 232 big league plate appearances while Alexander slashed .125/.125/.125 through his eight trips to the major league plate.

The Royals could look outside the organization for more offense, though their options will be limited now that the trade deadline has passed. Players like Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman have reportedly been put on waivers this week. Neither is a real first base solution but they could conceivably help with the DH spot. It’s likely there are other names on the wire that haven’t been reported. Any player claimed prior to September 1 is playoff-eligible with his new team.

The next few days should shed some light on how the Royals respond. For Pasquantino, it’ll be a second consecutive season marked by injury. His 2023 campaign was ended in June by shoulder surgery, limiting him to just 61 games. He got into 131 contests this year but he won’t be able to increase that number now. He is slated to qualify for arbitration after 2025 and free agency after 2028.

Cardinals Designate Tommy Pham For Assignment

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The Cardinals announced that they have recalled outfielder Jordan Walker from Triple-A Memphis, with fellow outfielder Tommy Pham designated for assignment in a corresponding move. It was reported yesterday that Pham had been placed on waivers, though without being removed from the roster. It seems the Cards are committed to moving on regardless of whether Pham is claimed off waivers or not.

Teams can place a player on waivers even while they are still on the roster and participating in games. We have seen this happen this year with players like Kevin Kiermaier back when he was with the Blue Jays, as well as guys like Michael A. Taylor of the Pirates, Drew Smyly of the Cubs, Robbie Grossman of the Rangers and others.

The Cards could have waited to see if Pham was claimed and then continued to play him if he passed through, but that won’t be the case now. Pham could still be claimed off waivers by tomorrow and would be postseason-eligible with his new club. But if he goes unclaimed, he will almost certainly end up a free agent. He has more than enough time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, so the Cards would probably just release him in that scenario.

Little by little, the Cards are signaling that they are moving on from 2024 and turning their attentions towards the future. Prior to last month’s trade deadline, they acted as buyers, grabbing Pham, Erick Fedde and Shawn Armstrong to bolster the roster for the stretch run. But they have gone 11-15 here in August, dropping them back in the crowded National League Wild Card race. They are currently six games out and would have to pass three different clubs to get in, while also holding off the Giants, who are just half a game behind the Cards. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 1.8% chance of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them at 1.9%.

Armstrong was designated for assignment earlier this week and is still in DFA limbo, with Pham now joining him there, so the Cards have quickly cut ties with two of their three deadline acquisitions. Fedde is still under contract for next year but Armstrong and Pham were rentals, so the club has little use for them as they have seemingly accepted that their chances in 2024 are low.

They will instead give Walker another crack at major league pitching. He has been up and down since the start of the 2023 season, showing occasional glimpses of his talents but also enduring periods of significant struggles. He hit .276/.342/.445 last year for a 115 wRC+ but his line is just .145/.228/.232 this season, wRC+ of 31. He’s spent most of his time at Triple-A this year, where the numbers have been better but not overwhelming. He has a .263/.326/.427 batting line for Memphis in 2024, which translates to a wRC+ of 94 in the strong offensive environment in the International League this year.

Though he hasn’t exactly been kicking the door down, the Cards have some motivation to get him regular run in the big leagues. Since they have been sending him back and forth between Memphis and St. Louis both last year and this year, he’s only going to have one option year remaining at the end of this season. He’s still just 22 years old and has lots of time to break out as a bonafide major leaguer, but his option status provides a little bit of a narrowing window.

During the offseason, the club could perhaps pursue offensive upgrades to try to compete in 2025. That could potentially make for a roster crunch that leads to Walker getting optioned again next year. For now, with the club outside contention, they have creating some breathing room for Walker to presumably get some significant playing time as the season winds down. Ideally, he can take some notable steps forward and solidify himself as part of the future, though he’ll be in an outfield mix that also includes Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, Michael Siani, Brendan Donovan and others.

2024-25 Qualifying Offer Projected To Be $21.2MM

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This winter’s qualifying offer is projected by the league to land around $21.2MM, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The number won’t be officially calculated until October but should be in that range. Around this time last year, Sherman relayed the 2023-24 QO was projected to be $20.5MM, though it eventually came in slightly lower at $20.325MM.

The qualifying offer value generally goes up each year since it is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. Salaries naturally trend up with inflation, so the QO moves up in kind. Here is how it has trended in recent history…

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM
  • 2022-23: $19.65MM
  • 2023-24: $20.325MM

A team can issue a qualifying offer, a one-year deal, to an impending free agent if the player just spent the entire season on its roster and has never received a QO in his career before. Here is a list of players who have previously received a QO and are therefore ineligible to receive another. Players traded midseason, such as Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers, are also ineligible.

Once the World Series is over, teams have five days to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Sherman, the players will have until 4pm Eastern on November 19 to decide whether to accept or reject. In the interim, they will be able to speak with other teams and assess their options before making a decision.

If a player rejects, then his previous team is eligible for draft pick compensation if he eventually signs elsewhere. That compensation will depend upon the size of the contract, the revenue-sharing status of the club and whether or not they paid the competitive balance tax. The signing club will be subject to draft pick forfeiture, which is also dependent on similar criteria.

Last year, seven players received qualifying offers and all of them rejected it, though Cody Bellinger and Aaron Nola eventually re-signed with the Cubs and Phillies respectively. This winter, players like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Max Fried and Anthony Santander are virtual locks to receive and reject a QO as long as they are healthy. Players like Ha-Seong Kim, Gleyber Torres, Teoscar Hernández, Christian Walker, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jurickson Profar will be tougher calls for their respective clubs.

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