Mets “Actively” Trying To Trade Veteran Pitching
The Mets are “actively” trying to trade Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee or Jon Niese, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. No specific trade appears imminent at this time, however. One issue is that the only significant free agent starting pitcher to sign so far has been A.J. Burnett, leaving a glut of starting pitching on the free agent market. The Mets hope that the upcoming Winter Meetings will help clear a path for starting pitching trades.
It comes as no surprise that the Mets are proactively trying to deal a pitcher. The Mets have a strong core of young pitching that includes Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard, and if everyone is healthy, there’s currently no room for those four, plus all the veterans, in the big-league rotation (although Syndergaard could start the season in Triple-A regardless). As Davidoff notes, Colon, Gee and Niese don’t have a ton of value on their own, but the Mets could use one of them to acquire a role player or a prospect, while also clearing salary.
Colon has one year and $11MM remaining on his contract. With an excellent walk rate of 1.3 BB/9, he remained effective last season as a 41-year-old, although his advanced age and diminished velocity limit his value. Gee is projected to make $5.1MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and had a solid but unspectacular 2014 season, with a 4.00 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 137 1/3 innings in the Mets’ rotation. Niese, who posted a 3.40 ERA in 187 2/3 innings, has two years and $16.5MM remaining on his five-year deal, which also includes options for 2017 and 2018.
None of the three have exorbitant contracts, but their trade value is, perhaps, limited in this market — as Davidoff’s colleague Joel Sherman recently noted, this offseason is a difficult one in which to trade pitching, not only because of the free agent options available, but because of more tantalizing trade possibilities, like Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels. Teams attempting to trade back-of-the-rotation types might have a tougher time, at least until some of the bigger-ticket players find teams.
Blue Jays Considering Signing Alberto Callaspo
The Blue Jays are considering signing free agent Alberto Callaspo to fill their hole at second base, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The Blue Jays have already added Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to their offense this offseason, but they’re still weak in left field and at second, where Ryan Goins currently tops their depth chart. The Jays also have Maicer Izturis, who will be returning from a significant knee injury.
Callaspo, 31, had a poor .223/.290/.290 season with Oakland in the last season of a two-year deal he originally signed with the Angels. He should therefore be available fairly cheaply, however, and Rosenthal notes that the Jays think Callaspo ought to rebound in 2015. Callaspo also ought not to require a multi-year deal, which means the Jays can keep second base clear for recently-acquired prospect Devon Travis in 2016 if Travis continues to hit.
Callaspo had back-to-back seasons of at least 2.9 WAR in Los Angeles in 2011 and 2012. At his best, the switch-hitter has generated value with an OBP-heavy offensive game and a good glove at both second base and third. He did, however, have negative UZR figures at second in both the last two seasons. Still, Toronto’s reported opinion that Callaspo is a good candidate to rebound appears to be well founded — Steamer projects he’ll hit .252/.326/.354 and be a win above replacement if given a full-time job next season.
Non-Tender Candidate: Alejandro De Aza
Halfway through the 2014 season, longtime White Sox outfielder Alejandro De Aza looked like a probable non-tender after hitting .243/.309/.354 and getting eaten alive by left-handed pitching in a lackluster age-30 season in Chicago. De Aza made $4.25MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and there was little indication he would be worth a raise on that heading into 2015 and his likely decline phase.
A late-August trade to Baltimore and a well timed hot streak might have earned De Aza another season in the arbitration system, however. He hit .293/.341/.537 in 89 plate appearances with the Orioles, bringing hit 2014 total to a more respectable .252/.314/.386, then kept hitting in the postseason. De Aza is also a slightly above average defender in an outfield corner and can play center field, so he has defensive value to fall back on. MLBTR projects he’ll make $5.9MM through the arbitration process this offseason, and for the right team, he’s probably worth it.
The only question is whether the Orioles are the right team. The O’s are trying to re-sign a fellow left-handed outfielder in Nick Markakis, as well as DH/OF Nelson Cruz. They’ve also reportedly discussed Matt Kemp with the Dodgers, and they’re in on Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera. How much worse De Aza is than someone like Markakis or Hunter could actually be debated, but any combination of Markakis, Cruz, Kemp, Hunter and Cabrera would make De Aza less useful to the Orioles.
On top of that, Baltimore faces a crunch of arbitration-eligible players, many of whom either are coming off very good seasons or have high salaries already. The Orioles’ 11 arbitration-eligibles (De Aza, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce, Bud Norris, Tommy Hunter, Chris Davis, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Ryan Flaherty and Zach Britton) are projected to make a combined $56.9MM, and the Orioles could decide De Aza is a luxury they can do without, particularly if they splurge on, say, Markakis and Cruz, or at least feel it’s likely they’ll re-sign. They already have a lefty backup outfielder in David Lough who had a similar season to De Aza with the bat and will make near the league minimum in 2015, so heading into the season with De Aza on their roster only makes sense for the Orioles if they have a starting spot available for him.
The good news for De Aza (assuming he wants to be tendered — he might actually get slightly more than one year and $5.9MM on the open market) is that there’s little time before Tuesday night’s tender deadline for the Orioles to settle their outfield picture. If the O’s do strike out on Markakis, Cruz, Kemp or anyone else they might pursue, De Aza should have significant value for them. If they do tender him and then acquire more players who might make him superfluous, they would probably still be able to trade him, even though they wouldn’t be likely to get much back. The best guess here, then, is that the Orioles tender De Aza, and that’s reportedly the direction they’re leaning anyway. The Praver/Shapiro client probably ought to plan on heading into the season with Baltimore.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Central Rumors: Hunter, Royals, Samardzija
The latest from the AL Central..
- Last night we learned that Torii Hunter is considering the Rangers, Orioles, Mariners, and, to a lesser extent, the Twins. Today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) adds the Royals to that mix and says others are in on the veteran.
- The White Sox‘s interest in A’s starter Jeff Samardzija is real, but whether they would meet a potential asking price of two or three of their top prospects remains to be seen, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Meanwhile, a White Sox source confirmed that they have explored trade talks with Oakland but wouldn’t categorize it as anything imminent.
- Whether or not the White Sox have the right pieces to acquire Samardzija is the big question, writes Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. The Red Sox, another Samardzija suitor, have plenty of flexibility after signing both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval last week and they’re desperate for starting pitching.
Cafardo On Lester, Cespedes, Porcello, Miller
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that some in the Red Sox organization see Xander Bogaerts as a young Hanley Ramirez. “They are both fun-loving kids who love playing the game,” Red Sox first base/outfield coach Arnie Beyeler said. “I didn’t see Hanley after the Dominican League, but I remember him as a kid who once he got his chance just did things better than everyone else. He ran better, threw better, hit better. It was easy to see that he was going to develop into a very good baseball player. And you see the same things with Xander.” More from today’s column..
- Major league sources tell Cafardo that the Cubs are very serious about Jon Lester while the Giants are becoming more serious about him. Meanwhile, the Yankees are thinking about getting serious about Lester but haven’t committed to doing so. The Red Sox remain interested but it remains to be seen how far they’ll go.
- If the Red Sox sign Jon Lester, Cafardo can see them moving Yoenis Cespedes for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter such as Reds hurlers Mat Latos or Mike Leake. The Reds would have a need for Cespedes’s bat, but they would also probably have a need for shortstop Deven Marrero. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto would cost Cespedes and maybe two top prospects, but it would be tempting for Boston.
- The Tigers could also be a match in a Cespedes deal. If those talks were to take place, the Red Sox would have more interest in Rick Porcello than Anibal Sanchez. David Price could be a possibility if the Red Sox whiff on Lester, but that would be costly.
- It’s strange to some that the Yankees haven’t re-signed closer David Robertson by now. One rival AL East GM wonders if the Yankees might change direction and go after someone like Andrew Miller, a power lefty, to go along with Dellin Betances.
- It’s hard to tell whether the Nationals are serious about trading Jordan Zimmermann because they have the resources to sign him and he’s their best pitcher. “It doesn’t hurt to listen,” said one NL executive about GM Mike Rizzo’s strategy. “If you get overwhelmed, you do it. If you don’t, you keep him. Pretty simple, actually.” Cafardo writes that the Red Sox, Rangers, and Cubs seem to have the pieces to get a deal done.
- There are teams interested in Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz. “There’s a lot of talent there that hasn’t come out,” one NL scout said.
Athletics, Braves Discussing Justin Upton, Evan Gattis
SUNDAY, 8:11am: There have not been any recent trade talks between the Braves and A’s, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). Meanwhile, a source close to the A’s tells John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (on Twitter) that Oakland will not be trading Jeff Samardzija to the Braves.
FRIDAY, 11:39pm: After pulling off a blockbuster earlier tonight, the Athletics are perhaps unsurprisingly exploring more deals. The team is in conversations with the Braves regarding outfielder Justin Upton and catcher Evan Gattis, reports John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter).
The precise nature, timing, and progress of these talks remains unclear; indeed, it is not even apparent that both players would be under consideration in the same deal. While it is not difficult to imagine that Oakland could make use of those players — particularly if still other moves are being contemplated — neither do they jump out as obvious fits.
The Athletics did sacrifice a good bit of right-handed power in the Jon Lester deal, of course. But the club just added an everyday right-handed bat in Billy Butler. (And with respect to Gattis, if he is viewed as a catching option, Oakland has Derek Norris behind the dish.) More to the point, perhaps, the addition of another bat that requires time in the corner outfield would raise the question of what the team will do with a mix that includes the right-handed-hitting Craig Gentry and lefties Brandon Moss and Josh Reddick.
Hickey notes that starter Jeff Samardzija could be involved in talks involving the aforementioned players. From my perspective, though, it makes little sense for Atlanta to chase after a one-year arm of that kind. Of course, a three-team scenario could be imagined that might make sense of that concept. It should also be remembered that the A’s have a stock of arms beyond their projected Opening Day rotation, with A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker readying to return and carrying plenty of excess value upside.
Non-Tender Candidate: Gordon Beckham
The Angels acquired infielder Gordon Beckham from the White Sox last August. Now the club has to decide if he will be tendered a contract. According to MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, he’s projected to earn $5MM in his final spin through arbitration. Coming off arguably the worst season of his career, the expense might outweigh the benefits.
Any discussion of Beckham inevitably digresses to 2009, when the then 22-year-old posted 2.5 WAR in two-thirds of a season. In parts of five seasons since his breakout, he’s managed just 2.8 total WAR over 2,528 plate appearances. Last year, he struggled to a .226/.271/.348 line and -0.2 WAR, although he was much better with the Angels (.286/.328/.429) during a brief 61 plate appearance audition.
Beckham, now 28, is best viewed as a utility fielder. While the Angels did use him a few times at shortstop, he’s most successful at second and third base. He’s maintained strong contact rates throughout his career, but he’s never managed to produce much power after his rookie season. It’s worth noting that Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field – where Beckham spent most of his career – is among the best offensive environments in baseball. In other words, the move to Los Angeles shouldn’t help his power.
Beckham’s performance in 2014 makes a trade unlikely. His $5MM projected salary is only affordable to a large market club in desperate need of middle infield depth. Incidentally, the Angels are perhaps the only team to fit that description. Howie Kendrick and David Freese have an intimate familiarity with the disabled list, which makes a player like Beckham a useful handcuff.
His presence on the roster, along with that of Grant Green, may give the Angels more confidence shopping Kendrick and Freese, both of whom have appeared in trade rumors. They’re free agents after 2015. Confidence should not be confused with reliance. While it’s possible Los Angeles could enter the season with Beckham, it’s unlikely they would plan to use him as a starter. The club is poised to contend in 2015, and Beckham’s bat would present a considerable hole in the lineup. If Kendrick or Freese are dealt, I expect the club to target infielders like Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, or Jed Lowrie.
Other infielders who offer similar versatility include Emilio Bonifacio, Kelly Johnson, Ed Lucas, and Alberto Callaspo. Since they should all cost less than Beckham’s $5MM projection, the most likely outcome appears to be a non-tender situation. The going rate for 0.0 to 1.0 WAR middle infielders appears to be between $500K and $3MM. The Angels do need a player like Beckham, so he could be re-signed at a lesser rate. His relative youth assures that some club will hand him a bench role.
White Sox, Athletics Discussing Samardzija Deal
The White Sox and Athletics are discussing a deal that would bring starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija back to Chicago, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. “I believe serious talks are going on,” an AL source told Van Schouwen. Yesterday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the A’s were in the midst of discussions regarding Samardzija.
The White Sox have already added first baseman Adam LaRoche and lefty reliever Zach Duke this offseason. As Van Schouwen notes, Samardzija would give them another strong starter to complement Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, and his acquisition would be another step toward building a competitive team around Sale and Jose Abreu. Samardzija pitched 219 2/3 innings while posting a 2.99 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in a terrific 2014. He’s projected to make $9.5MM in arbitration this offseason, and is eligible for free agency next winter.
Last night, the Athletics sent star third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays, so it makes sense that they would also consider trading Samardzija, since he only has one more more year of club control. They acquired Samardzija in another blockbuster trade last summer, sending top prospect Addison Russell, along with Dan Straily and Billy McKinney, to Chicago in exchange for Samardzija and Jason Hammel.
Van Schouwen speculates that the Athletics’ return for Samardzija could include shortstop Alexei Ramirez (although the actual terms of the trade discussions are unknown at this time). The Athletics have needs at both middle infield positions. Ramirez will make $10MM in 2015, and has a team option for 2016.
Reactions To The Josh Donaldson Trade
The Athletics’ trade of third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays last night came as a surprise, but A’s GM Billy Beane explains he felt he had to move forward, via MLB.com’s Jane Lee on Twitter. “[W]e had to take a look at where we are and where we’re headed,” says Beane. “[W]e were 11 games behind the Angels last season, and it took the last day to hold off the Mariners, and given the losses that we have … we didn’t think it was possible to add to the current group to make up an 11-game difference.” Beane goes on to say that he was trying to position the team to be in the process of improving, rather than deteriorating. Here are more notes on last night’s deal.
- The trade was a win for the Jays, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). The deal netted Toronto “one of the best players in baseball for a package of prospects that doesn’t quite add up.” In particular, Law feels it’s a future-oriented deal for the A’s, but the two pitchers involved (Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman) are only back-end starter types, and even though the A’s have a good record getting value out of such players, it will be hard Nolin, Graveman, Brett Lawrie and Franklin Barreto to produce enough value to compensate for four years of control of a great player. Also, Law suggests the Athletics’ motivations here aren’t yet clear in light of their recent signing of Billy Butler, which was a “win-now move.”
- The Blue Jays’ side of the trade suggests Toronto believes that it can win with offense in an era dominated by pitching, Drew Fairservice of Fangraphs writes. So far this offseason, the Jays have added Donaldson and Russell Martin to an offense that already featured Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
- The Athletics’ motivations for this deal aren’t yet completely clear, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs writes. Lawrie’s upside and youth could be the key to the deal from their perspective, but he has to stay healthy. One possibility could be that the A’s could move Lawrie to second base and pursue Chase Headley, who could turn out to be a bargain free agent. Cameron suggests that this trade might make more sense once we see what other moves the A’s make this offseason.
- Speaking of which, the Athletics have “at least one more significant trade brewing,” FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. That move could involve Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick or John Jaso — a report last week indicated that the A’s were shopping those players, and that their acquisition of Ike Davis could be seen as an insurance policy in case they traded one.
- The Athletics’ decision to trade Donaldson was a characteristic one, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports writes. The A’s acquired Donaldson in 2008 when they sent Rich Harden to the Cubs, and Donaldson only emerged years later as one of the game’s top third basemen. Now they’re acquiring four players in shipping Donaldson to Toronto, perhaps hoping one of Barreto, Nolin or Graveman blossoms years from now, just like Donaldson did. Passan writes that the deal makes sense from Toronto’s perspective, but the Jays still need help at left field, DH, second base and closer.
Blue Jays Acquire Josh Donaldson From Athletics For Brett Lawrie, Three Others
The Blue Jays have officially struck a deal to acquire third baseman Josh Donaldson from the Athletics. Heading back to Oakland are infielder Brett Lawrie, righty Kendall Graveman, shortstop Franklin Barreto, and lefty Sean Nolin.
This deal’s franchise-changing implications are evident on its face. Donaldson, 28, and Lawrie, 24, have each been viewed as cornerstone third basemen for their respective clubs.
Donaldson is, of course, the best piece moving in this swap and one of the more valuable commodities in all of baseball. A late bloomer, he had emerged as one of the game’s very best position players over the last two seasons. Collectively, he has slashed .277/.363/.477 with 53 home runs and 13 stolen bases over 1,262 plate appearances since the start of 2013. With stellar defense included, Donaldson has racked up 15.4 rWAR and 14.1 fWAR in that span.
Projected by Matt Swartz/MLBTR to earn $4.5MM in his Super Two season of arbitration eligibility, Donaldson was just starting off on a track to become rather pricey. But he comes with four seasons of control, and will unquestionably be paid less than his anticipated worth on the diamond.
Though significantly younger, Lawrie comes with one less year of control. He is, however, projected to take home just $1.8MM this season and will therefore also have a much lower starting point for his next two seasons of earnings. That element of the deal should not be ignored, as Lawrie will almost certainly be significantly cheaper than Donaldson over the next three campaigns.
On the other hand, he has yet to match Donaldson’s output in spite of his own, oft-noted ability. Over his first three-plus seasons in the bigs, Lawrie owns a .265/.323/.426 slash (good for a 104 OPS+) and has generally drawn solid-to-outstanding reviews on his defensive work. Injuries have limited his time on the field over each of the last two seasons, but Lawrie has generally performed at a well-above-average clip when healthy.
The other pieces involved are, of course, responsible for making up the gap in value between Donaldson and Lawrie. Barreto could be the hidden gem in the package, with Ben Badler of Baseball America noting on Twitter that the 18-year-old was the top July 2 prospect of two years prior and is probably at top-100 level prospect at this point. He came into the year as Toronto’s fifth-rated prospect, per Baseball America, and his .865 OPS with six home runs and 29 steals in just 328 low A plate appearances did nothing but improve upon that standing. Per BA, Barreto has several plus tools (hit, speed, arm) with decent power projection and room to improve on his footwork at the shortstop position.
Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Nolin, a lefty, placed tenth on that BA listing. He has been deemed ready enough to warrant one MLB appearance in each of the last two seasons, though he has spent most of his time in the upper minors. In 105 Triple-A innings thus far, Nolin has posted a 3.17 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9. BA credits him with a “true four-pitch mix” and calls him a fairly polished number four starter type.
Graveman, 23, sprinted through the Blue Jays’ system after going in the eighth round of the 2013 draft. He threw 172 innings across five levels of the organization the the last year alone, largely dominating at every level of the minors as a starter before earning a chance to make a handful of big league relief appearances. In total, he made 27 minor league starts, just seven of which came above the High-A level, carrying a cumulative 1.83 ERA with 6.2 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9.
It would not be surprising at all to see other moves in the works for both clubs after this swap. The Jays have clearly signaled their intention to challenge for the AL East crown, and remain in the market for outfield and bullpen help.
Oakland, meanwhile, is in the midst of something of a general roster churn, but is probably not merely looking to the future after promising $30MM to Billy Butler. With the team’s most recent rotation additions, it is possible to imagine the team dangling one of its expiring contracts (Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir) as it looks to fill out its largely open middle infield mix. Lawrie, of course, has spent some time at second in his career and creates some flexibility in that regard.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the deal (Twitter links), with Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeting Nolin’s inclusion. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier in the evening that a significant trade was in the works.
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