Arbitration Breakdown: Jeff Samardzija
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Jeff Samardzija enters his third year of arbitration eligibility this winter following an excellent season in which he struggled to get run support. Samardzija threw a total of 219 2/3 innings with a 2.99 ERA and 202 strikeouts, but the Cubs and Athletics each failed to score runs behind him, and he finished with a 7-13 record (and remember that for all the problems with the Win statistic, it’s still a notable component of arbitration valuation).
It is rare that a player has a sub-3.00 ERA in over 200 innings yet fails to win more than seven games. However, that type of odd case is what my arbitration model is designed to handle. By putting the right weight on the right statistics, the model strives to match players like Samardzija up with the comparable players that are likely to come up in a potential arbitration hearing. The model has projected a $3.85MM raise for Samardzija in 2015 to take him from a $5.35MM salary up to a $9.2MM salary.
Trying to find actual comparables for Samardzija was tricky. There were no Arb 3 starters with an ERA under 3.50 who had single-digit wins at all in the last eight years, at least among those with 180 innings pitched. There were also no pitchers under a 3.30 ERA with under 13 wins either with that number of innings either. No one with an ERA under 3.50 with less than 13 wins had more than 210 innings. However, three pitchers were close to these criteria.
David Price got a $3.89MM raise last year with a 10-8 record and a 3.33 ERA in 186 2/3 innings. Homer Bailey had an 11-12 record with a 3.49 ERA in 209 innings last year too, which got him a $3.65MM raise. A couple years earlier, Matt Garza had a 10-10 record with a 3.32 ERA in 198 innings, which got him a $3.55MM raise. Each of these three guys had more wins than Samardzija’s seven, but they also had fewer innings and higher ERAs. Samardzija also passed 200 strikeouts, something that none of those three did (though Bailey had 199 and Garza had 197). With the extra innings and lower ERA, it seems likely that Samardzija could pass this group. One potential roadblock is that Price’s track record and the fact that he was over .500.
In cases like these, it can be helpful to try to establish a floor and a ceiling player. In other words, players that are likely worse than/better than the player in question, whose salaries are close enough together that you can find a solid range for the player.
One reasonable floor for Samardzija could be Brandon McCarthy from 2012. He had just a 9-9 record with a 3.32 ERA in 170 2/3 innings and struck out only 123 batters. Although he did have two more wins that Samardzija, it’s unlikely that a 9-9 record bests a 7-13 record by enough to offset the 49 extra innings and 79 extra strikeouts. McCarthy got a $3.28MM raise that year.
A potential ceiling for Samardzija could be a pitcher with a sub-3 ERA with a similar number of innings, but double digit wins. However, finding such players was tricky. Max Scherzer went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 214.1 innings last year, which is obviously better. It did net him an $8.8MM raise. Carlos Zambrano way back in 2007 got a $5.9MM raise after a 16-7 season with a 3.41 ERA in 214 innings. But his case was obviously better than Samardzija’s, so he does not look like a useful comparable.
Justin Masterson’s case last year could be appropriate to establish a ceiling, but he falls short of Samardzija’s case in a few ways. He had a 14-10 record with a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings, and he struck out 195 batters. Masterson got a $4.07MM raise. Doubling up Samardzija’s win total is probably enough to offset to extra innings and lower ERA after Samardzija, but he doesn’t quite work like a typical ceiling.
Using McCarthy and Masterson as a floor and a ceiling leaves a pretty wide window between a $3.2MM and $4.07MM raise for Samardzija to fit in. All three of the aforementioned comparables (Price, Bailey, Garza) fell in that window. In the end, there’s a strong case for Samardzija to get a raise somewhere in the $3.55MM to $3.89MM raise range from those three players, and the $3.85MM that the model projected fits in there as well. It’s possible that Samardzija’s record hurts him enough that he ends up with a good deal less, or that his ERA and innings place him above this group, but a safe midpoint is probably the model’s projection.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Pushing For Torii Hunter; Decision Expected Soon
9:21am: The Orioles, Royals and Twins remain in the mix for Hunter, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). However, he too hears that the Rangers are making a push to sign Hunter. It’s perhaps worth noting that Hunter resides in Texas in the offseason.
9:08am: The Rangers have been making a push to sign free agent outfielder Torii Hunter, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Olney tweeted yesterday that the Rangers were continuing their talks with the Reynolds Sports Management client, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote last night that the Rangers were aggressively pursuing Hunter.
The 39-year-old Hunter would presumably fill the space that has been vacated by Alex Rios and join an outfield mix that also features Shin-Soo Choo and Leonys Martin. As Olney points out, Hunter’s right-handed bat would help to balance out a Rangers lineup that currently leans pretty heavily to the left side. Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Robinson Chirinos are the only projected regulars that bat from the right side. Andrus offers little in the way of power, and Chirinos has little track record as a 30-year-old with just one full season under his belt.
Hunter has been linked to a large number of teams, including the Orioles, Mariners, Royals and Twins of late. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Hunter plans to make his decision soon, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that Hunter’s preference is still to sign with a contender.
Braves, Medlen Have Discussed Two-Year Deal
With tonight’s non-tender deadline looming, the Braves have discussed a two-year deal with non-tender candidate Kris Medlen, reports MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (Twitter links). Bowman also notes that a one-year deal with a team option for 2016 could make some degree of sense for both sides.
Medlen is a non-tender candidate through no fault of his own; he recently enjoyed an excellent 2013 campaign, but a torn ulnar collateral ligament in Spring Training led to his second career Tommy John surgery. We’ve projected Medlen to earn the same $5.8MM in 2015 that he did in 2014, though it’s possible he could have his salary cut by as much as 20 percent (the maximum allowed), meaning he’d cost at least $4.65MM next year. For a player who may not be ready for Opening Day (his Tommy John surgery came on March 18 of last year) and could potentially miss months of the 2015 campaign, that’s a somewhat risky notion.
By signing a two-year deal, the Braves could back-load the contract and remove some of the risk from Medlen’s recovery season — a season that historically isn’t as sharp for a pitcher as the subsequent seasons. Medlen, meanwhile, could guarantee himself more money than the $4.65MM to $5.8MM he stands to earn in 2015. An increased guarantee would hardly be insignificant for the 29-year-old Medlen, who has banked about $9.7MM in his career to this point.
When healthy, Medlen has been nothing short of excellent in his career. The former 10th-round pick has a lifetime 2.95 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 46.2 percent ground-ball rate in 512 2/3 innings at the Major League level. Based on that success, it’s not surprising to see the Braves trying to get a bit creative to keep Medlen in the fold.
Markakis No Longer Likely To Re-Sign With Orioles
The Orioles now appear to have less than an even shot of re-signing outfielder Nick Markakis, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. No progress has been made since negotiations stalled, re-opened, and quieted again, Connolly writes.
One possible hold-up, per Connolly, is the length of the deal. Though the sides were operating on the premise of a four-year term in the early run of negotiations, now there are rumblings from the team side that it is not comfortable with that length.
With Baltimore fading somewhat, other teams have entered the picture more firmly. Connolly says that the long-time Bird is now setting his sights toward finding a new landing spot at the upcoming Winter Meetings. The Giants and Blue Jays are among the clubs that have been noted as potential alternatives for Markakis.
Braves Have Not Made Offer To Jon Lester
Jon Lester, the top free agent without a qualifying offer attached to his name, continues to be one of the most talked-about players on the market. He’s been linked to the Cubs, Red Sox, Braves, Giants and Cardinals of late, and things only figure to pick up for Lester as next week’s Winter Meetings approach.
We’ll keep track of Monday’s Lester rumors here in this post…
- The Braves did not make Lester an offer after their recent meeting, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The team did not believe it would be able to make a competitive offer given the strength of Lester’s market, O’Brien explains. It would appear that Atlanta is not in the running to land the lefty at this point.
Earlier Updates
- Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Cubs have offered Lester $138MM over six years, while the Red Sox have expressed a willingness to go up to $130MM following their initial offer in the $110-120MM range. Lester is meeting with the Giants today and is set to talk to two more clubs this week, per Heyman, who adds that it seems like a long shot that Lester will sign anywhere but Boston, Chicago (Cubs), Atlanta or San Francisco. Heyman adds that Lester would probably need to be willing to take a hometown discount to sign with the Braves (which is where he lives in the offseason).
- The Giants appear to be the last serious team to meet with Lester, tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. A $25MM AAV remains very possible for him at this point, Levine adds. Heyman also noted in his piece that Lester could top that milestone.
- The Giants are meeting with Lester today, reports ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (on Twitter). San Francisco’s final offer to Pablo Sandoval was said to be for at least $95MM over five years, so it stands to reason that the $95-100MM they were willing to spend on Sandoval could be in play for Lester. Of course, that figure is expected to be well shy of Lester’s eventual contract, but the Giants undoubtedly have additional funds beyond the sum that was set aside for Sandoval, especially coming off another World Series victory.
- WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that Lester’s camp would like all of its visits to interested teams to be completed prior to the Winter Meetings (Twitter link).
- In a second tweet, Olney speculatively handicaps the Lester market with the following ranking: 1. Cubs; 2. Red Sox; 3. Everyone else.
Marlins Make Long-Term Offers To Fernandez, Yelich, Hechavarria
The Marlins have already locked up Giancarlo Stanton to a record-setting 13-year deal, and they’re now focusing on extending the rest of their young core. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Fish have made long-term offers to ace Jose Fernandez, left fielder Christian Yelich and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, with an offer to center fielder Marcell Ozuna expected to come this week.
Heyman doesn’t have specifics on all four of the deals, but he reports that the Fernandez proposal is said to be for six years and about $40MM. It also contains two club options. While that payday may seem light in comparison to Stanton’s contract, it’s worth noting how different the situations of Fernandez and Stanton are. Both are cornerstone players, but Stanton signed his deal with just two years of team control remaining when he was due to earn roughly $13MM in 2015 already. Fernandez is not yet even arbitration eligible (he’ll earn close to the league minimum next year) and is also coming off a season cut short by Tommy John surgery. Stanton, on the other hand, was coming off a second-place MVP finish.
According to Heyman, the offer to Fernandez would be the largest ever for a pitcher with his service time, though there appears to be a bit of disconnect there. Heyman notes that the offer is for “close to” $40MM. Fernandez currently has exactly two years of MLB service, and Gio Gonzalez‘s six-year, $42MM contract is the biggest extension ever signed by a pitcher with two to three years of MLB service (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). It’s possible that Heyman is simply referring to a player with exactly two years of service or even a player in the low two-year range, but in terms of service class, anything short of $42MM in guaranteed money would fall a bit shy of a record.
The offer to Yelich, according to Heyman, is said to be modeled after Starling Marte‘s six-year, $31.5MM contract, but it contains a smaller guarantee than that deal. There’s still some work to do before the two sides are close to an agreement, he notes. Yelich, who quietly posted roughly a four-WAR season, has just one year and 69 days of MLB service time. Marte’s contract is the second-largest ever for an outfielder with one to two years of service (Ryan Braun‘s $45MM deal is king), but as the Extension Tracker shows, recent extensions for Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $32MM), Jedd Gyorko (five years, $35MM), Anthony Rizzo (seven years, $41MM) and Andrelton Simmons (seven years, $58MM) have all topped the Marte deal in terms of guarantee.
General manager Dan Jennings wouldn’t comment on specific situations, but he expressed confidence to Heyman in locking up his young stars, even Fernandez, who is represented by Scott Boras. “We’ll get it done,” said Jennings. “We’ll get it done with Scott, too; we’ll just have to rassle a little harder.” Boras, of course, is typically averse to advising his young talents to accept extensions before hitting free agency, though there are notable exceptions (including recent cases of Carlos Gonzalez and Carlos Gomez).
To this point, Heyman writes, there’s yet to be an inclination that Fernandez is amenable to a long-term contract with such little experience under his belt and given his injury status. The pair of proposed club options, in particular, would seem to go against Boras’ typical philosophy. However, Jennings maintained optimism and felt that extension talks with all four of his young players are going well: “We’ve had some great exchanges. I feel like we’re moving in the right direction.”
Mariners Still Seeking Right Fielder
Earlier today, news broke that the Mariners and Nelson Cruz had agreed to a four-year deal. While some assumed that he would serve in an outfield capacity, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports that the M’s prefer to use Cruz in a DH role and will still seek a right fielder from outside the organization. According to Dutton, two possibilities are free agents Torii Hunter and Alex Rios.
Dutton also reports that the Mariners still have interest in acquiring Matt Kemp from the Dodgers, but those talks have stalled due to Los Angeles’ insistence that one of Taijuan Walker or James Paxton be included in the deal. Additionally, he adds, the Orioles have shown increased interest in Kemp, presenting Seattle with competition to acquire his services.
One player whose name has surfaced in trade speculation is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, as many feel he could be a fit for the Red Sox in a potential swap for Yoenis Cespedes. However, ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that Iwakuma is firmly unavailable, as the Mariners are looking to add to the club rather than subtract (Twitter link).
The Mariners feel they have the payroll flexibility to add Kemp (and thereby Hunter or Rios as well, of course) even after signing Cruz and working out a seven-year, $100MM extension for Kyle Seager. Kemp is owed $107MM over the next five seasons — a hefty investment for a power bat whose defensive skills appear to be diminishing as well.
Dutton’s report makes no mention of Justin Upton, although it would stand to reason that if Kemp is still in play, there would be continued interest in Upton as well, to whom the Mariners have been linked on multiple occasions. However, as Andy Martino of the New York Daily News tweeted after Cruz’s agreement, the Braves “almost certainly” would ask for Walker in exchange for Upton, so Seattle’s interest there figures to be limited until the asking price changes.
Both Hunter and Rios would provide a veteran right-handed bat to bring further balance to a lineup that was extremely left-handed in 2014. Hunter has recently been said to be considering the Mariners as well as the Rangers, Orioles, Royals and, to a lesser extent, the Twins. Rios, meanwhile, has yet to see his name surface in too many rumors, perhaps due to a down season at the plate (.280/.311/.398). The Mariners were said to consider him a fallback option earlier this month. Should the Mariners think on a larger scale, Melky Cabrera remains a free agent, and the price for parting with him is now slightly diminished, as Seattle would only need part with its second pick after forfeiting the No. 19 pick to sign Cruz.
In addition to the names listed, the Mariners do have a fairly strong in-house candidate in the form of Michael Saunders. However, Saunders is a left-handed bat and his relationship with the organization was strained after some postseason comments from GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Lloyd McClendon. The Mariners were said to be shopping Saunders as recently as last month’s GM Meetings, and those talks could of course be revisited at next week’s Winter Meetings.
Carlos Pena Joins MLB Network
The MLB Network announced today that veteran first baseman Carlos Pena will join its team as a studio analyst. While the release doesn’t make a specific mention that Pena has officially retired, it does begin with the phrase, “…after a 14-year career…” which of course suggests that the slugger’s playing career is coming to a close.
Pena, 36, has a lifetime .232./.346/.462 batting line with 286 homers and 818 RBIs in 5893 Major League plate appearances. Pena’s best seasons came with the Rays from 2007-09, during which time he batted .252/.382/.553 with 116 homers. His single-season homer totals in that time were 46, 31 and 39, and he nabbed a pair of ninth-place MVP finishes to go along with a Gold Glove award, a Silver Slugger award and the lone All-Star nod of his career.
Pena is widely respected and has a reputation for being a well-liked teammate, and some reporters who covered him in his playing days have already expressed that they feel his articulate nature will make him a good TV personality. If his playing days are done, he’ll hang it up having earned just over $48MM in a career that Baseball-Reference rated at 25 wins above replacement. MLBTR wishes Pena the best of luck in the next phase of his career.
Padres Marketing Grandal More Aggressively
The Padres are becoming more aggressive in marketing catcher Yasmani Grandal on the trade market, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Previous reports have indicated that the interest in San Diego catchers is strong, with Grandal, Rene Rivera and top prospect Austin Hedges all said to be generating calls.
The 26-year-old Grandal had a slow start to his 2014 campaign but finished quite strong with a .242/.356/.440 batting line in 222 second-half plate appearances. Despite playing his home games in the pitchers’ haven that is Petco Park, Grandal swatted 15 homers, tying him for eighth in the league among backstops. He also rates as a solid pitch-framer, though ESPN’s Keith Law (who also hears that San Diego has become more aggressive in trying to move Grandal) tweets that he still has work to do on his receiving skills, as Padres pitchers preferred throwing to Rivera.
Grandal is controllable through the 2018 season. The switch-hitting former top prospect has yet to string together a consistent run of success in the Majors, but he has the talent to do so and should be an attractive trade chip in an offseason environment that is exceptionally thin on catching options. While Hedges isn’t ready to take over as the everyday catcher just yet, Rivera’s surprising emergence last season likely makes it easier to shop Grandal. The team doesn’t necessarily need to move him, but it’s possible that the Friars feel Grandal’s value is near its peak due to his strong finish, his remaining team control and the dearth of available catching options. Moving Grandal appears to be be a more palatable option than entertaining offers for controllable arms such as Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner.
Some teams that have been linked to catching upgrades include the White Sox, Dodgers and Cubs, and the Rockies are known to have been looking for improved catcher defense as well. The Cubs do have Welington Castillo behind the dish, and I’m personally of the mind that they were interested in Russell Martin specifically rather than catching upgrades in general
Yankees, Dodgers In “Serious Pursuit” Of Andrew Miller
10:53am: The Dodgers are also in serious pursuit of Miller, tweets Olney.
8:37am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that he just spoke with Miller’s agent, who confirmed the Yankees’ interest but said New York is one of multiple teams still in the mix and wouldn’t classify a front-runner.
7:47am: The Yankees are in “serious pursuit” of lefty Andrew Miller, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Olney adds that given the teams that are showing the most interest in Miller, a four-year deal is likely, as others have indicated.
Miller was said last week to have multiple three-year offers already in hand, leading to further speculation that four years was the likely outcome. Over the weekend, reports indicated that he’d pared his list of possible destinations down to eight clubs, with AL East rivals Boston and Baltimore among the teams to have shown interest. On Saturday, Miller’s agent, Mark Rodgers, told the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that the lefty was advancing toward a decision.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pegged Miller for a four-year, $32MM contract in his free agent profile back in mid-October, but given the significant interest in Miller, it seems possible he tops that average annual value. If the Yankees are indeed the team to pay that premium, it could serve as an unofficial means of closing the book on their long relationship with David Robertson — the top reliever on this year’s open market. Robertson is known to be looking for a contract that tops Jonathan Papelbon‘s record-setting four-year, $50MM contract, and he reportedly already has received a three-year, $39MM offer. By signing Miller, the Yankees could add a premium high-leverage lefty to pair with breakout rookie right-hander Dellin Betances and collect a draft pick when Robertson signs elsewhere.