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David MacKinnon Agrees To Terms With NPB’s Seibu Lions

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Infielder David MacKinnon is signing with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 campaign, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old had been non-tendered by the A’s at the end of this past season.

MacKinnon entered the professional ranks with little fanfare, a 32nd-round draftee of the Angels in 2017. A University of Hartford product, he eventually played his way to the highest level with a .294/.412/.464 showing in parts of five minor league seasons. That included a massive .324/.429/.631 mark with 14 home runs through 273 plate appearances in his first crack with Triple-A Salt Lake this year. The Angels selected his contract in mid-June, and he broke into MLB with 16 games for the Halos.

On the day of the trade deadline, Anaheim lost MacKinnon to the A’s via waiver claim. He spent the rest of the season in a depth role, appearing six times in MLB and in 16 Triple-A games in the Oakland organization. MacKinnon hit .297/.370/.422 with their top affiliate in Las Vegas but didn’t make much of an impact in his brief big league look at either stop. Between the Angels and Athletics, he hit .140/.228/.140 in 57 trips to the plate.

While the Massachusetts native didn’t get much of a chance to establish himself in the majors, his very impressive Triple-A work caught the attention of evaluators in Japan. He’ll head to the Lions for at least one season, bringing a high-OBP bat to the mix. MacKinnon walked in an excellent 14.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances while striking out just 18.2% of the time. He’s a bat-first player who has spent the majority of his professional career at first base, although he also started 10 Triple-A games at the hot corner this year.

Mets Sign Kodai Senga

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Senga’s deal.

DECEMBER 10: The Mets have agreed to a five-year, $75MM deal with right-hander Kodai Senga, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter links).  Senga’s contract also has no-trade protection and an opt-out clause following the 2025 season, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).  The deal will become official when Senga passes a physical.  Senga is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract figure exactly matches the projection from MLBTR, as Senga ranked 11th on the list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  There is no further posting fee involved in the Mets’ costs, since Senga became a full free agent after exercising an opt-out clause in his contract with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga turns 30 in January, and he leaves the Hawks after 11 outstanding seasons.  The righty has a 2.59 ERA, 28.22% strikeout rate, and 9.33% walk rate over 1089 innings at Japan’s highest level.  Senga’s four-pitch arsenal is highlighted by an excellent splitter and a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s.  Scouting reports indicate that Senga’s control is sometimes inconsistent, but otherwise, many pundits feel his stuff can translate quite well to North American baseball.

It was just over a year ago that Senga signed a new five-year deal with the Hawks, but with the important proviso of the opt-out clause that he was widely expected to use, assuming he amassed the necessary service time needed for full free agency.  That was a key step in the process, as the Hawks (unlike several other NPB teams) don’t make their players available for the NPB/MLB posting system.  In discussing his plan to move to North American baseball, Senga said last year that “as a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher,” and it can be argued that he more than achieved his goals in Japanese baseball.  The right-hander’s resume includes five Japan Series titles with the Hawks, three NPB All-Star appearances, two placements on the Pacific League’s Best Nine team, and (outside of league play) an Olympic gold medal with Japan’s baseball team in 2021.

Between Senga’s potential and the overall demand for pitching this offseason, it isn’t surprising that multiple teams were monitoring his market.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres were the other clubs known to have interest, and agent Joel Wolfe implied that as many as a dozen MLB teams had checked in on his client.  Multiple five- and six-year offers were on the table for Senga, and while he elected for a five-year option from the Mets, the opt-out allows Senga the possibility of re-entering the market and possibly landing extra years and more money as he enters his age-33 season.

Heading into the offseason, the Mets faced the challenge of a large free agent class that included a star closer (Edwin Diaz) and most of the bullpen altogether, their starting center fielder (Brandon Nimmo), and the majority of their starting rotation in the form of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt.  However, with the Winter Meetings only just passed, New York has already addressed most of those holes by re-signing Diaz and Nimmo, and replacing that trio of starters with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and now Senga.  If that wasn’t enough, the Mets further bolstered the relief corps by signing David Robertson and acquiring Brooks Raley in a trade from the Rays.

There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders.  However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.

This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT.  The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll.  Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark.  This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.

With the Mets already in uncharted financial territory, even more big moves could possibly be in store for Cohen and GM Billy Eppler.  Since the luxury tax doesn’t appear to be any more than a speed bump to the Amazins’ plans, the club might continue to add high-priced talent, and not even bother with trying to get under the $293MM threshold for any kind of mild lessening of its CBT bill.

On paper, the bullpen looks like it could use some more reinforcement, and catcher also looks like a weaker position except top prospect Francisco Alvarez is expected to get more big league playing time in 2023.  The rotation now looks completely set with Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco making up the starting five.  Speculatively, the Mets might even feel comfortable enough in their depth to shop one of their backup starters (i.e. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez) in trade talks with a pitching-needy team.  Or, given the older ages and some of the injury uncertainty surrounding the Mets’ starters, New York might also simply opt to retain as much pitching depth as possible.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tyler Beede Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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The Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Friday that they’ve signed right-hander Tyler Beede to a one-year contract. Beede himself announced the deal as well in a video message to his new club’s fan base (Twitter link). It’ll be the first stint overseas for Beede, a former first-round pick and top prospect with MLB’s own San Francisco Giants.

Now 29 years old, Beede was actually a two-time first-round pick, declining to sign out of high school in 2011 after the Blue Jays selected him with the No. 21 pick and then ultimately signing with San Francisco, who selected him out of Vanderbilt with the 14th pick three years later.

Beede ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects after a strong 2016 showing in Double-A, and he made his big league debut in 2018, tossing 7 2/3 innings but yielding seven runs in that small sample. He received a lengthier look in 2019 but was uncharacteristically homer-prone (1.69 HR/9) — a common trend among pitchers that season due to changes to the composition of the baseball. Beede logged 117 innings with the Giants in 2019 but yielded a 5.08 ERA.

A flexor strain and UCL strain early in spring training 2020 served as a portent for eventual Tommy John surgery, and Beede was limited to just 49 1/3 innings in 2021 (just one in the Majors) while finishing off his rehab from that procedure. After a rocky start to his 2022 season — five runs on 14 hits and six walks with four strikeouts in 9 2/3 frames — the Giants designated the now-out-of-options Beede for assignment and lost him to the Pirates on a waiver claim.

Things didn’t go much better for Beede in Pittsburgh, where he stumbled to a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings, fanning just 14.8% of his opponents against a higher-than-average 9.7% walk rate. The Pirates designated Beede for assignment themselves in September and this time successfully passed him through waivers. The right-hander became a minor league free agent at season’s end, and he’ll now look to turn his fortunes around in Japan.

Though Beede doesn’t have much in the way of big league success, he was a clearly touted arm dating back to his days as an amateur and throughout the early portion of his professional career. He carries an unsightly 5.40 career ERA in parts of five Triple-A seasons, with particularly rough showings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in both 2018 and 2021. Beede won’t be 30 until May, so he’s still young enough to parlay some NPB success into a big league return, as we’ve seen plenty of pitchers do in recent years.

Munetaka Murakami To Be Posted After 2025

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Japanese slugger and third baseman Munetaka Murakami recently signed a three-year deal with his team, the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball. According to a report from The Mainichi out of Japan, as relayed by Nick Groke of The Athletic, the contract stipulates that Murakami will be posted after those three seasons.

Murakami is currently just 22 years old, turning 23 in February. Despite that young age, he’s already hit 160 home runs over his four-plus seasons in NPB. He made a brief debut in the 2018 season when he was only 18 years of age, but has been a mainstay for the Swallows over the past four campaigns. In 553 games to this point, he has hit .281/.405/.583. His home run totals in those four seasons are 36, 28, 39 and then an incredible 56 in 2022. That last number broke Sadaharu Oh’s record for most home runs hit by a Japanese-born player in the league, which he set back in 1964. (Curaçao-born Wladimir Balentien has the overall record, hitting 60 homers in 2013.)

Japanese players in NPB have to accrue nine years of professional experience before they reach international free agency, allowing them to pursue opportunities in North America. Players who wish to make the jump before that point must request to be posted by their club. Generally, NPB clubs hang onto their players until late in the nine-year window of control before posting, meaning that many Japanese players don’t join the majors until they are midway through their careers. Seiya Suzuki was posted last year going into his age-28 season. Masataka Yoshida was posted this offseason going into his age-29 campaign. Kodai Senga was never posted as his NPB club, the SoftBank Hawks, have a policy against it. He’s joining the Mets for 2023 after he will turn 30 in January.

By negotiating this posting into his contract, Murakami will be able to come over after his age-25 season, which is the youngest he could be while still being able to earn a Major League contract on the open market. International players under 25 years of age and/or with fewer than six years of professional experience are considered “amateurs” rather than professionals under MLB’s international free agency rules and are thus subject to the “bonus pool” system, where each team has an MLB-mandated cap on how much it can spend on signing bonuses.

International “amateurs” can only agree to minor league deals and signing bonuses, whereas “professionals” like Suzuki, Yoshida and Senga (i.e. players 25 and older with six-plus years of pro experience) are free to sign Major League contracts for any length and dollar amount; for example, Shohei Ohtani came over to the Angels prior to his age-23 season, settling for a $2.3MM signing bonus and was unable to reach free agency until after 2023. Had he waited two more years, he could have immediately signed a nine-figure contract.

Murakami will have no such restrictions and will be able to secure a deal of any length or dollar amount, similar to Suzuki or Yoshida. However, he will be considerably younger than those players and perhaps have an even more impressive track record of success. His 160 home runs are already close to the 182 Suzuki hit in his NPB time and more than Yoshida’s 133. His 24% strikeout rate is a bit on the high side, though that’s inflated by a 31% rate in 2019 when he was just 19 years old. It’s declined in the three subsequent seasons, getting under 21% in 2022. It’s a similar story with his walk rate, which has gone from 12.5% in 2019, increasing to 19.3% in 2022. His final batting line in 2022 was .318/.458/.711.

FanGraphs gives Murakami a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, giving high praise for his work at the plate but firmly declaring that he won’t be able to stick at third base. They give a 30-grade to his feet and range and say that he will have to be moved to either left field, first base or designated hitter. Nonetheless, they still say that he would be considered one of the top five prospects in the sport if he were already in a team’s system and is a future star.

If he does sign with a major league team, the club would owe a fee to the Swallows under the MLB – NPB posting agreement. That’s tied to the size of the contract itself, with the MLB team owing the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee is on top of any dollars guaranteed to the player himself, and subsequent earning (e.g. performance incentives, contract options) are also subject to the posting system once they become guaranteed to the player.

Red Sox Sign Masataka Yoshida To Five-Year Deal

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December 15: The Red Sox have officially announced the signing, designating infielder Jeter Downs for assignment in a corresponding move. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the breakdown of Yoshida’s deal, with features a $3MM signing bonus, $15MM salary in 2023 and $18MM salary in each subsequent season.

December 7: The Red Sox have made a big addition to their lineup, agreeing to terms with outfielder Masataka Yoshida. It’s reportedly a five-year, $90MM guarantee, and the deal does not contain any option provisions or opt-out clauses. The Japanese star had just been made available via the posting system this week, but the Sox struck quickly with a record-setting contract offer.

Yoshida lands the loftiest guarantee of any position player making the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors. The record was just set last spring by Seiya Suzuki, who inked a five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs. Perhaps not coincidentally, Yoshida will edge past that by a million dollars annually.

It’s a massive gamble for the Red Sox, but one they’re prepared to take to add much-needed outfield help. Yoshida has been one of the more accomplished hitters in Japan for the past few seasons. He’s appeared in NPB for the last seven years and carries a career .327/.421/.539 line. The left-handed hitter has reached base in more than 40% of his plate appearances in each of the past six seasons, and he topped a 1.000 OPS for the first time in 2022. Yoshida hit .335/.447/.561 through 508 trips to the dish this year.

The 29-year-old has shown exceptional bat-to-ball skills in Japan, walking more often than he’s struck out for four straight years. This past season’s marks were especially impressive, as he had nearly twice as many free passes as punchouts. Yoshida walked at a massive 15.7% clip while fanning in only 8.1% of his plate appearances. He surely won’t be expected to maintain rates quite that impressive in MLB, where the quality of pitchers’ repertoires is more consistent. Yet the Red Sox are confident he’ll carry over much of that elite on-base ability, presumably as a top-of-the-lineup option for skipper Alex Cora.

The plate discipline is Yoshida’s primary attribute, but he also brings a fair bit of extra-base pop. Despite being listed at just 5’8″, he’s topped 21 home runs in four of the last five years, and he’s collected over 20 doubles five years running. He’s never reached 30 longballs in a season, although he’s consistently been a threat for 20+ homers in Japan.

Suzuki had a stronger track record from a power perspective, twice topping 30 homers and blasting 38 during his final NPB season. Suzuki didn’t have Yoshida’s elite plate discipline metrics, though, posting roughly equal strikeout and walk numbers for his final two years. Yoshida brings a different profile than Suzuki will, but the Red Sox are clearly of the opinion he’ll immediately step in as an above-average offensive performer at the MLB level. Suzuki, for what it’s worth, did immediately find success — hitting .262/.332/.433 in his first season in Chicago.

Yoshida will have to perform at the plate to be productive, as he doesn’t offer much defensive value. He’s generally viewed as a left field-only player at the MLB level. That had been a key area of need for Boston, which entered today with Jarren Duran atop the depth chart. The former top prospect has only a .219/.269/.354 line in 335 MLB plate appearances over the past two years. He’ll be bumped into fourth outfield duty or back to Triple-A Worcester, and it stands to reason the Sox could at least consider the possibility of dealing Duran to add MLB help elsewhere on the roster.

Boston’s investment goes beyond the contract value, as they’ll also owe compensation to the Orix Buffaloes. Under the MLB – NPB agreement, an MLB team that signs a player who’d been posted owes a fee to the player’s former NPB team. That’s dependent on the value of the contract itself, with the posting fee coming out to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any additional dollars. On a $90MM guarantee, that comes out to a $15.375MM payment to the Buffaloes. Overall, the Red Sox’s investment tallies $105.375MM.

The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported. An even distribution of $18MM annually would bring the Sox’s estimated 2023 payroll commitments around $175MM, per Roster Resource. The $18MM average annual value brings the team’s luxury tax commitments to around $195MM. They’re still well shy of the $233MM base tax threshold and their estimated $207MM Opening Day payroll from this past season.

Boston’s certainly not done, and it’s possible they finalize another major contract in the coming days. Reports this morning suggest there’s growing momentum between the Sox and Xander Bogaerts, lending some optimism they could retain the four-time All-Star. Beyond the middle infield, areas like catcher and the back of the rotation stand out as potential targets for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff moving forward.

Yoshida’s signing subtracts another outfielder from the open market. Brandon Nimmo is the top player remaining, while Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar and Michael Conforto are options at lower tiers. Teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners reportedly had interest in Yoshida. All three have been searching for solutions in the corner outfield and will have to look elsewhere if they’re to land a lefty-swinging outfielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Red Sox and Yoshida had agreed to a five-year deal worth north of $85MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to peg the guarantee at $90MM. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the deal contained no options or opt-out clauses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Frank Schwindel Signs With NPB’s Orix Buffaloes

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Former Cub Frank Schwindel has reportedly signed a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s NPB. Schwindel had been playing for the Águilas Cibaeñas in the Dominican Winter League. Sung Min Kim had previously tweeted that the two parties were discussing a deal, and Cibaeñas general manager Ángel Ovalles recently told reporters that the 30-year-old had signed with the Buffaloes and was leaving the team.

Designated for assignment in July 2021 by Oakland, Schwindel was picked up by Chicago and immediately sent to Triple-A Iowa. However, after Anthony Rizzo was traded to the Yankees, Schwindel received a call-up and never looked back. During the second half of the 2021 season, he slashed a robust .342/.389/.613, with a strong 15% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 13 homers in 239 plate appearances. This tremendous output, albeit in a limited sample size, earned him minor consideration in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Schwindel opened the 2022 season with the Cubs but struggled and was shuffled between Iowa and Chicago. He also missed time with lower back strains in May and June. His poor performance led to the Cubs designating him for assignment in mid-September, and he was granted his unconditional release. Schwindel finished the 2022 season hitting .229/.277/.358 with eight homers in 292 plate appearances. Notably, his strikeout rate increased to 19.9%.

With a poor 2022, Schwindel might have been hard-pressed to find anything beyond a minor league deal with an MLB team this winter. Instead, the right-handed hitter will head to Japan in search of the magic he captured during the 2021 season. With the Buffaloes, he will likely earn more guaranteed money and ample opportunity to rediscover his swing, perhaps eventually exploring a return to North American baseball.

Diamondbacks Reportedly Showing Interest In Shintaro Fujinami

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The Diamondbacks have shown interest in Japanese pitcher Shintaro Fujinami, according to a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese-language link). The report also lists the Giants and Red Sox as other teams in the mix but suggests Arizona is emerging as one of the favorites to work out a deal with the right-hander.

Fujinami was made available to major league clubs via the posting system on December 1. That opened a 45-day window for MLB teams to negotiate a contract with the 28-year-old. If Fujinami doesn’t sign with an MLB team by January 15, he’d remain a member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hanshin Tigers in 2023. Reports of MLB interest and perhaps an early frontrunner just over a week after the posting window opens would seem to bode well for his chances of making the jump to the majors.

One of the more interesting wild cards in this year’s pitching market, Fujinami has already played parts of 10 seasons at Japan’s top level. A highly-regarded amateur talent a decade ago, he made his NPB debut at age 18 in 2013. Fujinami started with an excellent 2.75 ERA over 137 2/3 innings as a rookie, seemingly positioning him as a core piece of the Tigers future. By 2015, he’d posted a 2.40 ERA with 221 strikeouts through 199 innings in his age-21 season. Fujinami also performed well in 2016 but saw his production start to drop off by the ’17 campaign.

Increasingly, the 6’6″ righty battled control problems. That erratic strike-throwing led the Tigers to shuttle him back-and-forth between NPB and their minor league affiliate frequently through 2019. He spent the majority of his time at Japan’s top level in 2020-21 but posted respective ERA’s of 4.01 and 5.21. Fujinami again split his 2022 campaign between NPB and the minors, only throwing 66 2/3 innings at the highest level.

To his credit, he found more success in that relatively limited look than he has in a while. Fujinami managed a 3.38 ERA through 16 appearances. He struck out a strong 23.6% of opponents and importantly only doled out free passes to 7.6% of batters faced. Fujinami’s only a season removed from an untenable 16.8% walk rate in 2021, but he at least flashed more consistent strike-throwing ability this year. He’s long had an arsenal that intrigues scouts, with a fastball that usually sits in the mid-90’s and has topped triple-digits in the past.

The erratic strike-throwing track record could point towards Fujinami being a better fit for the bullpen, but he has an extensive workload as a starter in Japan. Each of the Diamondbacks, Giants and Red Sox could stand to use additional arms in both the rotation and relief unit, making Fujinami an interesting upside possibility for any of that group.

If he does sign with a major league team, the club would owe a fee to the Tigers under the MLB – NPB posting agreement. That’s tied to the size of the contract itself, with the MLB team owing the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. It’d be a major surprise if an MLB deal for Fujinami topped $25MM, so the posting fee is likely to end up at 20% of the contract value.

Wolfe: Senga Has Received Five-Plus Year Offers

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Star Japanese hurler Kodai Senga is one of the most intriguing entrants on this offseason’s free agent market. The right-hander is arguably the second-best pitcher remaining behind Carlos Rodón, and he’s already been tied to almost a third of the league in various reports.

Reflecting that wide interest, Senga’s agent Joel Wolfe told reporters at the Winter Meetings this afternoon his client has been offered deals of five and six years (via Kyle Glaser of Baseball America). Predictably, Wolfe didn’t divulge salary figures but suggested Senga’s prioritizing the opportunity to join a win-now club. Earlier in the offseason, Wolfe told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago the right-hander was hoping to land in a big market.

There’s certainly a risk in committing five or six seasons to a pitcher without any track record against big league hitters. At the same time, it’s not hard to understand how the bidding has apparently worked its way to that level. Senga has a fantastic track record at the highest level in Japan, working to a 2.59 ERA in parts of 11 NPB seasons. He’s coming off 144 frames of 1.94 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 27.5% of opponents. He walked batters at an average 8.6% clip.

According to scouting reports, Senga has a fastball that sits in the mid-upper 90’s and an excellent splitter that serves as his top secondary offering. Evaluators have raised some concerns about his breaking ball and the consistency of his strike-throwing effectiveness, but he bolsters a high-octane top two pitches and has a long track record of success at NPB’s highest level. Headed into his age-30 season, he’ll step right into an MLB rotation, with his signing team surely at least anticipating mid-rotation caliber production.

The starting pitching market has picked up in recent days, with Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Zach Eflin and Andrew Heaney all coming off the board on multi-year deals. Beyond Rodón, Senga leads a group with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon as the next tier of free agent starters. Senga is the youngest of that group and figures to land the longest deal; it’s quite possible he’ll secure the largest guarantee as a result, even if his annual salaries may check in a bit below those of Bassitt and Eovaldi.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted Senga to land a five-year, $75MM contract. He’s a true international free agent, so a signing team won’t owe any compensation to his former NPB club, the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, Mets, Giants, Yankees and Mariners are among the teams that have been linked to him this offseason. Wolfe told reporters there are currently between a half-dozen and a dozen teams still involved in the market (via Glaser).

NPB Posting Window Expanded From 30 To 45 Days

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The posting system that allows players to move from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball to the major leagues has been expanded from 30 days to 45 days, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

If a player in Japan wants to pursue a contract with an MLB club, the NPB team can “post” the player. In the past, this opened up a 30-day window where the player and his representatives could negotiate with all 30 major league teams. If they didn’t find a contract to their liking, the player would return to their NPB club. If they did find a deal, the signing team would also owe money to the NPB team, on top of what they pay the player. The amount of that fee would be relative to the size of the contract given, with 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.

It seems that this system is all still in place, just with the window being extended from 30 days to 45 days. This year, this will impact at least two players: Masataka Yoshida and Shintaro Fujinami. It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that this will not impact another NPB player in Kodai Senga, as he has accrued enough service time to become a proper free agent that is not subject to the posting system. Yoshida’s window will reportedly start tomorrow and go until January 20. Fujinami was posted on December 1, meaning his window should be closing around January 15.

Assuming this is a permanent change and not a temporary exception, it will also have a bearing on all future NPB players who are posted in the future.

Orix Buffaloes Officially Post Masataka Yoshida

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12:55pm: The posting window has actually been changed from 30 days to 45 days, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Feinsand adds that Yoshida’s window will officially open tomorrow at 8am Eastern and go until 5pm on January 20th.

12:20pm: The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have officially posted outfielder Masataka Yoshida, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll have 30 days to find a deal with a major league team or else return to the Buffaloes for 2023.

Yoshida, 29, made his NPB debut with the Buffaloes in 2016 and has since established himself as a key contributor at the plate. In 2022, he played in 119 games, hitting 21 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .335/.447/.561. That level of production and Yoshida’s age should lead to him garnering plenty of interest from North American teams. It was reported back in November that this posting was coming, but NPB contracts generally run until the start of December, which delayed the official move until now.

This year’s market for free agent outfielders isn’t huge in terms of quantity. MLBTR’s list of the top free agents featured Aaron Judge in the top spot and Brandon Nimmo at number nine. Those guys are both likely to receive nine-figure deals, but then there’s only a few guys capable of everyday jobs in the middle of the list. Joc Pederson accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Giants, leaving Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger and Jurickson Profar as some of the few mid-market options. Then there are some guys likely to require less cost but with injury risks, such as Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley.

Teams will likely have wide variance in how they evaluate Yoshida, but it’s unlikely he will earn a contract that rivals the top-market guys. Seiya Suzuki was another highly-touted slugger who was posted a year ago and he eventually signed with the Cubs for five years and $85MM. He was 27 years old at the time, two years younger than Yoshida is now. That likely makes it difficult for Yoshida to beat Suzuki’s guarantee, though it’s possible some team values him significantly higher than the Cubs valued Suzuki. For the teams that miss out on the top free agent outfielders, Yoshida should add an interesting new option for the next tier of the market.

There will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with Yoshida’s representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Buffaloes, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Buffaloes for 2023. Yoshida has already been connected to the Blue Jays, Mariners and Yankees, with plenty of other teams sure to emerge in the next few weeks.

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