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Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Posting

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It was already known that left-hander Shota Imanaga would be posted this offseason, and reports out of Japan yesterday indicated that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars have officially agreed to the left-hander’s request to explore the North American market.  “If someone has a dream he wants to realize, and we think he has the ability to achieve it, we want to support that,” DeNA executive Tatsuhiro Hagiwara told the Kyodo News and other outlets.

To be clear, the Baystars have only agreed to post Imanaga, and haven’t yet officially posted the southpaw for MLB teams.  Once Imanaga’s posting window properly opens, he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with Major League clubs.  If no deal is reached within the 45 days, Imanaga will return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season, and he’d have to wait until next offseason to again vie for a North American contract.

The 30-year-old Imanaga is one of the more intriguing players available this winter, and MLBTR ranked him 10th on our list of the top 50 free agents of the 2023-24 class.  We’re projecting a five-year, $85MM pact for Imanaga, befitting his status as one of Japan’s top pitchers of recent years.  Imanaga is a two-time NPB All-Star, has a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 career innings with the Baystars, and he won a gold medal with Japan’s championship team at this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Imanaga is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, so a big league team would have to give the Baystars a posting fee on top of whatever they end up paying Imanaga.  The posting fee is worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Imanaga’s contract, with the Baystars receiving more money depending on the total value.  For instance, if Imanaga did sign for that projected $85MM, his new Major League club would owe the Baystars $14.65MM.

Despite this impressive resume, Imanaga is only the second-best NPB starter on the market, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  MLBTR ranks Yamamoto third on our top 50 list and in line for a nine-year, $225MM commitment, based on Yamamoto’s ability and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  Yamamoto is also tied to the posting system via the Orix Buffaloes, and interestingly, Imanaga’s reps at Octagon might be aiming to keep their client out of Yamamoto’s shadow.  According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Baystars might not officially post Imanaga until after Yamamoto has already signed.

This strategy carries some risk.  For one, Yamamoto’s own posting window has yet to begin, though he is expected to be made available to MLB teams relatively soon.  Even if the Buffaloes posted Yamamoto tomorrow, he would still have until December 26 to land a contract, and it seems possible he might take closer to the 45-day maximum to finalize what will likely be one of the winter’s larger contracts.  For example, since many of the same big-market clubs are pursuing both Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto’s camp might see if Ohtani could sign first, thus providing more clarity on Yamamoto’s market.

Should this scenario occur, Imanaga might not be posted until sometime in January, creating a bit of a time crunch.  A 45-day window would put Imanaga close to the start of Spring Training, if Imanaga and Octagon also needed time to negotiate with clubs to find an acceptable contract.  This would leave Imanaga with less time to not just find a new team, but to acclimate himself to his new continent, new city, and new coaching staff prior to Spring Training, and it would make sense that Imanaga would want time to properly ramp up for his debut MLB debut.

On the other hand, it isn’t an uncommon tactic for an upper-tier free agent to wait until later into the offseason to sign.  If Yamamoto and some other free agent pitchers and trade candidates are off the board by the time Imanaga is available to be posted, he might have fewer suitors in general, but the remaining suitors might be more desperate (and thus more willing to get into a bidding war) to land one of the few top-tier rotation options still unsigned.

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Approve Posting Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Shortly after losing Game 7 of the Japan Series to the Hanshin Tigers, the Orix Buffaloes announced this morning that they have approved the posting of ace right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to MLB. As noted by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the next step in the process is the formal declaration of a posting window, which will last 45 days upon being announced. Morosi suggests that the announcement could occur in the coming days. Yamamoto has long been expected to enter MLB free agency via the posting system this offseason, though today’s news marks the first official confirmation from the Buffaloes that Yamamoto will be posted.

Yamamoto, 25, has established himself as the clear best pitcher in Japan in recent years. Since making his NPB debut as an 18-year-old in 2017, Yamamoto has posted a career ERA of just 1.72 with a 26.4% strikeout rate. Incredible as those career numbers are, Yamamoto has been even more impressive over the last three seasons: from 2021-23, Yamamoto has posted an eye-popping 1.42 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.1% across 557 2/3 innings of work. His most recent performance saw him record 14 strikeouts while allowing one run on nine hits and zero walks in a complete game for the Buffaloes in Game 6 of the Japan Series.

Scouts have widely regarded Yamamoto as a starter with top-of-the-rotation potential in MLB. Prior to the 2023 season, scouts suggested to Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Yamamoto could be considered a “full grade” ahead of right-hander Kodai Senga, who landed with the Mets on a five-year, $75MM pact last offseason in his first foray into stateside ball. Senga’s age-30 rookie season in MLB proved to be an excellent one, as he posted a 2.98 ERA and 3.63 FIP while striking out 202 batters in 166 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, the idea of an ace nearly six years Senga’s junior widely regarded as the better pitcher of the two being available via free agency this offseason has to be nothing short of tantalizing for MLB clubs.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski took a look at Yamamoto in the latest installment of his NPB Players To Watch series back in September, shortly after Yamamoto threw the second no-hitter of his career in front of several MLB scouts. Yamamoto’s unusual youth for a free agent and incredible upside figure to make him one of the most coveted free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. In MLBTR’s most recent Free Agent Power Rankings back in August, we had Yamamoto as the third ranked free agent to be on the board, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger. The market for Yamamoto is expected to be among the most competitive of the offseason, with the Giants, Mets, and Cardinals among the reported suitors in addition to the Phillies, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Tigers, and Diamondbacks, all of whom he’s been publicly connected to on some level or other throughout his final season before moving stateside.

Naoyuki Uwasawa To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Winter

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Japanese right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa is planning a move to North American baseball, as the Nippon Ham-Fighters starter told reporters (including the Kyodo News) at a press conference.  Uwasawa isn’t yet a full agent, so he will be made available to Major League via the posting system.  Uwasawa turns 30 in February, and has a 3.19 ERA over 1118 1/3 career innings with the Fighters, along with a 7.5% walk rate and a modest 19.67% strikeout rate.

Making his NPB debut in 2014, Uwasawa is a three-time All-Star (including this season) and has developed into a reliable starter in terms of both results and durability, apart from a freak injury that shortened his 2019 season.  Uwasawa had his left knee fractured by a line drive that year, but has returned in good health, tossing 102 innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then throwing at least 152 innings in each of the last three full NPB seasons.

MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly featured Uwasawa in his NPB Players To Watch feature, as Uwasawa has made his intentions clear for some time that he wanted to test himself against North American competition.  There are some concerns over Uwasawa’s ability to transition to the big leagues, as Dai wrote that “Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that [Kohei] Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure).”  The mention of Arihara isn’t a promising comp, as Arihara had a 7.57 ERA over 60 2/3 innings with Texas in 2021-22 before returning to Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 campaign.

Nonetheless, MLB teams are gauging for themselves how well they think Uwasawa might fare against big league competition.  A Sports Hochi report from September indicated that scouts from the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, Royals, Cubs, and Angels all saw Uwasawa in action, so the righty is drawing a fair amount of interest.  While Uwasawa doesn’t have the high profile of NPB stars like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and others this winter, he does represent an interesting mid-level entry into the pitching market who probably won’t require a particularly large contract.

As a reminder about the MLB/NPB posting system, any players with less than nine full years of experience must first be posted by his Japanese team before negotiating with Major League clubs.  Once posted, Uwasawa has 45 days to talk with any MLB team he wishes, and he would return to the Fighters after those 45 days if no contract agreement is reached.  The Fighters would receive a posting fee if Uwasawa did sign with a Major League team, with the fee being worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Uwasawa’s contract.  Should Uwasawa sign for more than $25MM in guaranteed money, the Fighters would receive a higher fee.

Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Yuki Matsui

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The Cardinals are interested in left-hander Yuki Matsui, per a report from Natsuki Une of Yahoo! Japan.

Matsui, 28 next week, is a left-handed reliever who has been pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the past 10 years. He’s appeared in 501 games in that time, posting an earned run average of 2.40 while recording 236 saves. Here in 2023, he’s been even more impressive, with a 1.57 ERA in 59 appearances while recording 39 saves. He struck out 32.4% of batters faced this year while walking just 5.9%. In addition to his excellent results, Matsui is notable for his size, listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds.

Though his frame may be atypical, it’s hard to argue with the results. It was reported a couple of weeks back that Matsui would explore signing with major league clubs and it seems like he is already garnering interest. Due to debuting at a young age, he is going to be a full free agent this winter and any signing club wouldn’t be required to pay a posting fee to the Rakuten Golden Eagles, the club he has played with for his entire career thus far.

Matsui has been a mainstay of MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series this year, with Dai Takegami Podziewski highlighting Matsui’s four-pitch arsenal, featuring a fastball, splitter, slider and curveball. The lefty reportedly had some trouble adapting to the ball in the World Baseball Classic, which is closer to the ball used in MLB. There’s always some uncertainty with foreign players since they are unproven in North America. Matsui’s size and issues with the WBC ball perhaps add to that, but clubs are often intrigued by the possibility of unearthing a hidden gem.

It seems the Cardinals are one such club, based on this report. That isn’t terribly surprising, since pitching was a notable weak spot for the 2023 club. The bullpen as a whole posted an ERA of 4.47 on the year, putting them 23rd in the league. They also traded impending free agents Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton at the deadline. In terms of left-handers specifically, they have JoJo Romero, John King and Andrew Suárez on the roster. Romero finished the season strong but still has just 67 career games at the major league level. King has posted good results by keeping the ball on the ground but doesn’t get many strikeouts. Suarez had an ERA of 7.16 in the majors this year.

The Cardinals have plenty of work to do this winter, looking to add three starters to their rotation, but adding another lefty to their bullpen would be a sensible upgrade as well. They will reportedly make Matsui a formal offer after the Japan Series, the NPB equivalent of the World Series, which is scheduled for October 28 to November 5. Like the World Series, it’s a best-of-seven, meaning it could end earlier if it doesn’t go the full seven. But given Matsui’s excellent season in Japan, the Cardinals surely won’t be the only club interested. The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Padres have also been scouting him, per the report. Matsui also reportedly has a four-year offer to stay with the Golden Eagles.

Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams

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Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.

Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles.  His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.

It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold.  However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer.  Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees.  It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage.  Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.

Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold.  He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season.  Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure.  With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.

Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season.  Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.

However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors.  More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.

This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader.  Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.

Rintaro Sasaki To Pass On NPB Draft, Play U.S. College Ball

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Japanese high schooler Rintaro Sasaki is planning to attend college and play baseball in the United States rather than take part in the Nippon Professional Baseball draft, according to reports out of Japan.  ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Baseball America’s Peter Flaherty both shed some more light on the situation, including just how unusual it is for a highly-touted Japanese prospect to opt for the American college system (and subsequently, eventually being eligible for the MLB draft) rather than staying in NPB.

Sasaki was one of the favorites as the first pick in the upcoming NPB draft, so there’s certainly some risk for the 17-year-old in betting on himself and instead heading to college.  He isn’t eligible for an NIL deal due to his international student status, but McDaniel writes that “industry chatter and a Japanese report have pegged Vanderbilt as an early leader” among what is sure to be quite a few suitors for the first baseman.  McDaniel also adds in a follow-up tweet that Sasaki will likely start playing college ball in 2025, not in the coming season.

At 6’0″ and 250 pounds, Sasaki carries plenty of thunder in his bat, with Flaherty and McDaniel both giving him a 70 grade for power on the 20-80 scouting scale.  “While his power is his premier tool, Sasaki also has a knack for consistently finding the barrel and has a great feel to hit,” Flaherty writes.  “He has plenty of bat speed as well as big time ’buggy whip’ in his hands.  Sasaki has also shown an advanced approach and has walked twice as many times as he has struck out.”

How this potential might translate to the NCAA ranks is yet to be determined, given the differences between Japanese and American high-school competition.  Even with this in mind, McDaniel notes that the “scouting consensus is that Sasaki currently is roughly a third-round draft prospect.”

If Sasaki had been drafted by a NPB team and gone on to a regular career in Japanese ball, he wouldn’t have been a full free agent (and thus allowed to explore interest from MLB clubs) until after he’d completed nine full seasons of pro ball.  It is possible Sasaki could have had a shorter wait than nine years if his team had agreed to post him, though perhaps only a shorter wait of a year or two at most, plus some NPB teams insist on their players fulfilling the entire nine-year minimum.

Since playing in Major League Baseball seems to be Sasaki’s ultimately goal, his decision to bypass the NPB draft system puts him in position to join an MLB organization much earlier.  Of course, actually reaching the majors might still be some years away (if ever) since Sasaki still has to play college ball and then likely get through at least a few minor league seasons before getting consideration for a big league roster.  That said, it is a bold move by a young player who clearly believes in his ability, and who might also start a new trend for Japanese high school prospects willing to forego NPB for a quicker shot at the majors.

Chunichi Dragons Reportedly Release Cuban Right-Hander Yariel Rodriguez

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Per reporter Francys Romero, Cuban right-handed reliever Yariel Rodriguez has been granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. Rodriguez figures to apply for MLB free agency in the near future, which could put him on the radar to sign with a big league club ahead of the 2024 season. The Dragons have not confirmed the report.

Rodriguez, 26, pitched in Cuba from his debut during the 2015-16 season until joining the Dragons in 2020. He was mostly a starter in Cuba, pitching to a 3.30 ERA with a 17.6% strikeout rate in 464 1/3 innings of work across six seasons, and maintained that role early in his NPB tenure. Overall, Rodriguez sports a 3.03 ERA and 25.4% strikeout rate since the start of the 2020 campaign, though he reached a whole new level of success in 2022, when he converted to full-time relief. In 54 2/3 innings of work with the Dragons that season, Rodriguez posted a microscopic 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate that was far and away the best of his career.

Most recently, Rodriguez started for Team Cuba during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. In two appearances for the team, Rodriguez allowed just two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work while notching ten strikeouts. Rodriguez did not otherwise play professionally during the 2023 season after leaving the Dragons back in March to work toward signing with a major league club. The Dragons maintained at the time that Rodriguez was still under contract with the club before placing him on the restricted list.

If Rodriguez does indeed get the opportunity to sign in the big leagues this offseason, he’ll be one of the more interesting relief options on the open market thanks to his youth and strong numbers in Japan. This offseason’s free agent relief class is headlined by southpaw Josh Hader, with fellow lefties Matt Moore and Aroldis Chapman also representing some of the best available, while the right-handed market features the likes of Jordan Hicks, David Robertson, and Joe Jimenez.

NPB Players To Watch: September

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The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

MLB Teams Scouting Kazuma Okamoto

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9:52pm: Morosi now reports that Okamoto isn’t on track to surpass the nine-year NPB service threshold for international free agency until the 2026-27 offseason. While the Giants could ostensibly still make him available via the posting system, there’s not much incentive for them to do so until after the ’25 campaign.

9:48pm: Yomiuri Giants corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto is on the radar of major league clubs, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi doesn’t cite any specific MLB teams with interest but notes that clubs have been evaluating the 27-year-old in case he becomes available during the upcoming offseason.

Okamoto has played parts of nine seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He wasn’t established at the NPB level until 2018, however, so he’ll still have less than nine full seasons of NPB service time. As a result, he won’t be eligible for unrestricted international free agency until the 2024-25 offseason.

It’s not uncommon for NPB teams to make a player available to MLB clubs the winter before their free agent year via the posting system. That’d entitle the NPB club to compensation, as a signing MLB organization has to pay a release fee to the NPB team to sign a player who’d been posted. If the NPB team waits until the player hits international free agency, they’d receive no money if he departs.

The Giants previously posted Shun Yamaguchi, paving the way for him to sign with the Blue Jays during the 2019-20 offseason. They made Tomoyuki Sugano available via the posting system the ensuing offseason, though he eventually re-signed with Yomiuri and has never made the jump to MLB. Whether they’d be willing to make Okamoto available is unclear.

If he hits the market, Okamoto would be an intriguing upside play in a class light on bats. He’s raking at a .301/.393/.627 clip over 504 plate appearances this season. He has already connected on 37 home runs, leading qualified NPB hitters by 11 longballs. He unsurprisingly also tops the league in slugging and ranks fifth in on-base percentage.

Okamoto has established himself as one of Japan’s more consistent power bats. He has eclipsed 30 homers in six straight seasons. This is trending as a career year — he had a comparatively modest .252/.336/.469 slash a season ago — but he clearly brings right-handed power. Okamoto represented Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic, connecting on a homer off Kyle Freeland in an eventual 3-2 win in the championship.

Yokohama DeNa Baystars To Post Shota Imanaga

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The Yokohama DeNa Baystars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post left-hander Shota Imanaga this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The southpaw will be eligible to explore opportunities with clubs in Major League Baseball as a free agent, though any club that signs him would owe a posting fee to the Baystars.

Imanaga is a veteran in Japan, having just turned 30 years old on September 1. Over eight seasons, he has tossed 977 innings with a 3.18 earned run average while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 6.9%. He’s been ever better this year, with a 2.72 ERA over 122 1/3 innings, along with a 29.1% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. He also pitched for Japan in the World Baseball Classic earlier this year, allowing two earned runs over six innings.

Here at MLBTR, Imanaga has been featured on all four editions of our NPB Players To Watch series, coming in at #3 in the first edition but #2 on each subsequent update. As noted by MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski in the first of that series, Imanaga doesn’t have an overpowering fastball but finds success thanks to his command and gets strikeouts with his changeup, which is close to a splitter. He also has a cutter, a curveball and a slider. He signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason.

Once Imanaga is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Baystars, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Baystars a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Baystars for 2024.

When he hits the market, Imanaga will add another interesting arm to a free agent class that is heavy on pitching. Another NPB star, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is expected to be in the mix, alongside other pitchers like Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery and Sonny Gray, while pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman have opt-outs and could jump into the mix as well.

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