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Free Agent Notes: Imanaga, Fedde, Barnes

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball late last month, kicking off a 45-day window during which he’ll be eligible to sign with major league clubs. While Imanaga only just officially joined the ranks of MLB’s free agents days ago, he’s long been expected to be posted this offseason. That’s allowed Imanaga’s free agency to develop considerable buzz in recent months.

While he’s largely been overshadowed by NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s widely considered the top starting pitcher on this offseason’s market, Imanaga is an impressive pitcher in his own right who is expected to be a potential mid-rotation arm in the big leagues with a low-nineties fastball as part of a deep pitch mix that Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions recently profiled. MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth (sixth among starting pitchers) on our annual top 50 free agents list and projected him for a five year, $85MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that Imanaga’s market may be even stronger than expected, noting in a recent article that while teams were initially hopeful the southpaw could be had on a deal similar to the five-year, $75MM pact Kodai Senga landed last offseason, his final deal figures to exceed that, potentially to the point of approaching a $100MM guarantee.

Should Imanaga’s contract ultimately reach the $100MM range suggested by Passan, it would be a major win not only for Imanaga but also the BayStars. Imanaga’s free agency is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, under which the team that signs the left-hander would owe the BayStars a posting fee worth as much as 20% of Imanaga’s total guarantee, with the percentage going down as the price of Imanaga’s contract goes up. If Imanaga were to sign for $100MM guaranteed, the BayStars would receive approximately $16.9MM, or just over $2MM more than they would receive if Imanaga signed an $85MM deal in line with MLBTR’s projections. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets have all been connected to Imanaga so far this offseason, though it’s certainly possible more teams are involved in the bidding for the 30-year-old’s services.

More free agent notes from around the league…

  • Former Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde is among the most interesting free agents on the market this offseason after a dominant season with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Previous reports have indicated that Fedde, who sports a career 5.41 ERA across six seasons in the majors but altered his repertoire before dominating to the tune of a 2.00 ERA across 30 starts with the Dinos this year, has garnered interest from both the Dinos and MLB clubs. Su-eun Jeon of Baseball Korea (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO) adds additional clarity to those reports, noting that Fedde has received interest from two MLB teams and a team in Japan’s NPB in addition to the offer he’s received to return to the Dinos. While it’s possible that Fedde could look to return to stateside ball this offseason, it’s worth noting that no former big leaguer returning from the KBO has secured a guarantee of even $10MM in the majors. That could lead Fedde to bet on himself by either remaining with the Dinos in hopes of a similarly dominant season in 2024 to further bolster his case for a more significant pact, or even consider a move to Japan in order to face NPB’s stiffer competition.
  • Fedde isn’t the only American-born player of note who could look to return to the majors this offseason, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests left-hander Charlie Barnes is expected to garner MLB interest in free agency this offseason. Barnes, 28, was a fourth-round pick by the Twins in the 2017 draft and made nine appearances with the big league club in 2021. He struggled to a 5.92 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 38 innings of work for Minnesota across nine appearances. He’s spent the two years since then pitching for the KBO’s Lotte Giants, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 61 starts. Looking just at his 2023 season, Barnes struck out 20% of batters faced with a 3.28 ERA in 170 1/3 innings of work. In addition to the aforementioned MLB interest, Morosi suggests that the Giants are expected to have strong interest in retaining Barnes, who served as the ace of their staff this season.

NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Sign Javy Guerra, Re-Sign Sheldon Neuse

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The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed right-hander Javy Guerra for the 2024 season (Japanese language link via Yahoo Japan). Hanshin has also re-signed infielder Sheldon Neuse and right-hander Jeremy Beasley, per the team’s web site. It’ll be the second season with the Tigers for both former big leaguers and Guerra’s first overseas.

Guerra, 28, once ranked as one of the top prospects in all of baseball while rising through the Red Sox and Padres systems as a shortstop. After struggling at the plate as he climbed the minor league ladder, however, he moved to the mound and has now appeared in each of the past five big league seasons, splitting time between the Padres, Rays and Brewers. Guerra is one of the game’s hardest throwers, averaging 98 mph on his heater and at times climbing into triple digits, but he’s battled significant command issues that have hampered his results.

In 63 MLB innings, Guerra has walked 14.3% of his opponents. He hasn’t balanced that out with the type of gaudy strikeout rate one might imagine either, setting down just 15% of his opponents on strikes. The poor command of his power repertoire has contributed to an ugly 6.43 ERA in the big leagues, but Guerra sports a career 2.87 ERA, 28% strikeout rate and far more palatable 9.6% walk rate in 78 1/3 Triple-A innings across two seasons. He’ll look to match that form more closely with the Tigers. And, at 28 years of age, if Guerra can harness his power arsenal in NPB and improve his command, he’s young enough to parlay this stint into a big league return down the road.

As for Neuse, he’ll be a familiar name for fans of the A’s, Dodgers and perhaps the Nationals (who selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft and traded him to Oakland alongside Jesus Luzardo for both Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle). The now-28-year-old infielder hit .212/.262/.296 in parts of three seasons between Oakland and Los Angeles (420 plate appearances) and turned in a .240/.295/.328 batting line with Hanshin last season.

As for Beasley, the 28-year-old pitched 24 2/3 innings of 5.84 ERA ball between the D-backs and Blue Jays from 2020-22. He tossed 41 innings for the Tigers’ top-level club in 2023 (plus 44 innings with their minor league squad) and handled himself quite nicely, logging a 2.20 ERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in that time.

NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters Post Naoyuki Uwasawa For MLB Clubs

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The Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have posted right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa for Major League teams, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Fighters announced in October that they would honor the 29-year-old righty’s wishes to be posted. Like Yokohama BayStars left-hander Shota Imanaga, who was also formally posted today, Uwasawa’s 45-day posting window will now kick off tomorrow morning.

Uwasawa, who’ll turn 30 in January, logged 170 innings of 2.96 ERA ball this past season, albeit with a sub-par 17.8% strikeout rate that could temper some enthusiasm. His career mark of 19.7% is a bit better but still not the type of rate that generally catches they eyes of MLB front offices in a market that heavily rewards power arms with swing-and-miss stuff. Uwasawa does sport a sharp 7.5% walk rate in his career, including a particularly impressive 5.9% mark this past season.

Back in September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that Uwasawa’s fastball velocity on the year was averaging 90.8 mph. Paired with his pedestrian strikeout rate, that lack of velocity will give Major League teams some trepidation about how he’ll stack up against MLB opposition. The average MLB fastball among starting pitchers in 2023 was 93.8 mph — 94.2 mph if focusing in solely on right-handed starters.

Of course, that doesn’t entirely rule out success. Kyle Hendricks sat at an average of 87.8 mph with his “heater” this past season, while fellow righties like Bryce Elder (90.7 mph), Dane Dunning (90.6 mph) and Kenta Maeda (91 mph) were all in the same general vicinity as Uwasawa over the course of generally successful seasons. The majority of right-handed starters who sat in this range struggled, but as with all rules, there are exceptions. Uwasawa could well prove to be such an exception, and his broader track record in Japan could still pique some team’s interest — particularly if (as is expected) his price tag is considerably lower than the other, higher-profile NPB arms who are being posted.

In parts of nine NPB seasons, Uwasawa has amassed 1118 1/3 innings of 3.19 ERA ball with a 19.7% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. He’s been particularly effective in recent years, compiling a 3.08 ERA over his past six NPB seasons. He made the NPB All-Star team in both 2021 and 2023. Uwasawa also tossed two shutouts and averaged better than seven innings per season this year.

If Uwasawa indeed finds a big league contract this offseason, any team signing him will owe a posting/release fee to the Fighters — his former club. The MLB/NPB posting system stipulates that in addition to the money paid to the player himself, his new team must pay a release fee to the former club that is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, plus 15% of any money thereafter.

NPB’s Yokohama BayStars Post Shota Imanaga

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The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball formally posted top left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League clubs on Monday, per the Kyodo News. It’s been known for months that Imanaga would be posted for big league clubs, but the timing of the move wasn’t clear until last Wednesday, when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Imanaga would be posted today.

Once MLB approves the posting and notifies teams that Imanaga is indeed available (a formality), that will kick off a 45-day negotiation window. One week ago today, NPB’s Orix Buffaloes posted ace and reigning three-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) Yoshinobu Yamamoto for MLB clubs. His negotiation window officially commenced the following morning. Imanaga will likely follow an identical pattern, with his negotiation window formally opening Tuesday morning.

Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, just wrapped up a second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and his third in the past five seasons. He tossed 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball for the BayStars in 2023, punching out 29.5% of his opponents against a sensational 3.8% walk rate. Since 2019, he’s posted a collective 2.79 earned run average, 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. A 2022 no-hitter headlines that five-year run of excellence.

While he may not bet the unusually young power arm that his countryman Yamamoto is, Imanaga is nonetheless viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter in MLB. Back in September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that he’d added some life to his fastball and was sitting in the 92-93 mph range. He also has a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider, as examined in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions

Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a posting/release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six-plus weeks.

Patrick Murphy Agrees To Deal With NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

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Right-hander Patrick Murphy has agreed to terms with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The deal, which is pending a physical, will be for one year with a 2025 option as well as performance bonuses and escalators.

Murphy, 29 in June, spent 2023 with the Twins on a minor league deal. He began the year in a fairly typical relief role but got stretched out for the final two months of the season. From the start of April to August 1, he tossed 44 2/3 innings over 33 appearances with an earned run average of 4.63. He struck out 25.3% of opponents but gave out walks at a 16.1% clip. He made nine more appearances from there and tacked on another 40 2/3 innings with a 2.66 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate.

Prior to this year, he was a third-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2013. He made it to the majors with that club and eventually went to the Nationals via a waiver claim. Between those two teams, he threw 39 2/3 major league innings from 2020 to 2022 with a 4.76 ERA, but he didn’t get to the big leagues in 2023.

Had he stayed in North America for 2024, he likely would have been limited to minor league offers but will instead head to Japan, where he should be in line for a larger salary and an opportunity to prove himself in what’s generally considered to be the strongest league outside of MLB. It’s unclear if the Fighters plan on using Murphy as a starter or reliever but he did both in 2023 and could perhaps provide them with some flexibility. If he fares well overseas, he could parlay that into a return to the majors down the road, a path taken by guys like Miles Mikolas, Chris Martin, Nick Martinez and others.

Shota Imanaga Likely To Be Posted By Monday

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The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are planning to post left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League teams sometime between now and Monday, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While prior reporting had indicated that Imanaga might not be posted until fellow NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already signed, it instead appears that Imanaga will be posted about a week after Yamamoto. That creates some overlap in the two posting periods but also gives Imanaga at least a few days for teams that miss out on Yamamoto to explore the possibility of instead signing him.

While both Imanaga and Yamamoto are highly regarded, Imanaga is widely expected to sign the lesser contract in terms of both years and dollars. That’s due partially to the fact that Yamamoto is regarded as the superior pitcher, of course, but the primary reason for Yamamoto being projected to sign a deal more than twice as lucrative as Imanaga is the age gap between the two. Yamamoto just turned 25 in August; Imanaga turned 30 in September.

As such, Imanaga’s age is more in line with that of standard Major League free agents, who tend to reach the open market around 30-31 years of age. There are exceptions, but particularly among pitchers, a player reaching the market in his mid-to-late 20s is quite rare.

Although Imanaga doesn’t have the bonus allure of being an atypically young free agent, he nonetheless figures to command a weighty long-term deal himself. The southpaw’s 2023 season featured 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball — his second straight sub-3.00 mark and his third in five years. (The two other seasons “only” saw Imanaga post marks of 3.08 and 3.23.) Imanaga fanned 29.5% of his opponents this past season against a superlative 3.8% walk rate.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He isn’t necessarily overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted late in the year that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 season. He pairs that heater with a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider hybrid, as noted in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions.

Whenever Imanaga is posted, it will mark the start of a 45-day window for him to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six to seven weeks.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes

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November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.

It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander.  Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.

Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings.  With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace.  Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.

Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system.  Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America.  Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.

The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself.  The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark.  Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.

The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities.  It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market.  Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors.  With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left.  Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

Kyle Keller Reportedly Drawing Interest From MLB Clubs

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Right-hander Kyle Keller is reportedly drawing interest from six major league teams, per Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that Keller, who pitched in Japan the past two seasons, is also drawing interest from NPB clubs.

Keller, 30, was an 18th-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft and pitched in the majors for parts of three seasons, from 2019-21. He recorded 46 1/3 innings of work across the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates organizations during that time, struggling to a 5.83 ERA with a 7.00 FIP. Control problems were the main culprit of Keller’s struggles, as evidenced by his 15% walk rate in the majors. Entering the 2022 campaign, Keller signed on with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers to become the club’s closer.

The righty impressed in that role over two seasons with the Tigers. After posting a strong 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work in Japan during the 2022 season, Keller put together an even more impressive season in 2023, with a sterling 1.71 ERA across 26 1/3 frames. He struck out 23.7% of batters faced on the year and has even managed to rein in his control issues during his time overseas, walking just 8.8% of batters faced over the past two seasons.

Given those strong numbers during his time in Japan, it’s easy to see why MLB clubs would have interest in Keller for the 2024 campaign. While a reliever on the wrong side of thirty with a fairly limited NPB track record and previous struggles at the major league level is unlikely to land a significant multi-year deal in the majors, it’s certainly feasible that Keller could find a team willing to roll the dice on a major league contract for his services. Free agent lefty Matt Moore and Diamondbacks right-hander Scott McGough are among the examples of big leaguers who departed MLB for the NPB before returning stateside in recent years.

Diamondbacks, Tigers Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto has garnered the attention of many clubs around the league and Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Tigers and Diamondbacks to the list.

The incredible popularity of Yamamoto is due to a couple of factors. Primarily, he has utterly dominated hitters in his career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He has an earned run average of 1.82 over his seven seasons, including a ridiculous 1.21 mark in 2023. He struck out 169 of the 636 batters he faced this year, a rate of 26.6%, while his 28 walks led to a rate of just 4.4%.

In addition to the results, teams will be incredibly interested in the fact that Yamamoto is just 25 years old. Players that come up through the affiliated ranks need to get six years of major league service time before reaching the open market, meaning they usually are close to or beyond their 30th birthday by the time they become free agents. That makes it extremely rare to have an opportunity to sign a player that is both this talented and this young. MLBTR predicted him for a contract of $225MM over nine years.

A projected contract of that size would normally restrict a player’s market to the top spenders but his age might open the door to some surprise bidders. Yamamoto has indeed been connected to plenty of moneyed clubs such as the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and others. But even teams that don’t usually come up in these rumors could perhaps be willing to stretch their usual spending habits and take a chance on Yamamoto since the chance of him suddenly succumbing to the aging curve would be far lower than other free agents.

The Diamondbacks clearly need starting pitching, despite having just gone on a run to the Fall Classic. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt give them three arms for next year’s rotation but they clearly have a drop-off after that, as demonstrated by the fact that they deployed a bullpen game in the fourth contest of the World Series, allowing 11 runs that night. Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry are on the roster as options for the back end but a rotation upgrade would surely help them build off the momentum of this year.

Their track record doesn’t give a lot of optimism of them getting this kind of deal done, however. They gave a mega deal to Zack Greinke going into 2016 but that was under a different front office and seems to be the exception more than the rule. Leaving that deal aside, their largest free agent contract is the $85MM they gave to Madison Bumgarner. They would likely have to more than double that to land Yamamoto. The Greinke deal was for $206.5MM, though, so landing Yamamoto wouldn’t be completely unprecedented. And as mentioned, some teams may be willing to go beyond their comfort zones for an exceptional case like this.

They are currently projected for a payroll of $104MM next year, per Roster Resource. They have gone a bit beyond that in the past, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts listing their franchise high as $132MM. Teams sometimes spend a little more after a strong postseason run, with some extra cash on hand after hosting some lucrative playoff games, perhaps giving the Snakes a bit of money to spend this winter.

The Tigers have struck plenty of big deals in the past but Scott Harris has kept things on the modest side since taking over as president of baseball operations a year ago. Last winter, they kept themselves to one-year deals for Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen.

There is perhaps an argument that the club is ready for more aggression, as they were above .500 after the All-Star break in 2023 and were able to climb into second place in the American League Central. With Miguel Cabrera’s onerous contract off the books, perhaps they could feel it’s time to make a splash. However, that was thinking a couple of years ago when the club tried to surge back into contention by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, which didn’t work out.

“This game has taught us time and time again,” Harris recently said, per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, “Sometimes, teams overestimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back.” He then said that the club is going in the right direction but “can’t do anything in free agency or in trades that sets us back. If we find an opportunity that’s going to push us forward and we’re confident of that, we’re going to do it.”

The club is only projected for a payroll of $79MM next year, per Roster Resource, with a couple of non-tenders likely dropping that even further. They have been way beyond that in past, per Cot’s, so there’s room for them to make a bold strike on Yamamoto financially. But given the comments from Harris, it seems there are things beyond the money that would have to align for something to come together.

As for the Yankees, there were reports this week that suggested that club’s chances of signing Yamamoto took a hit in a strange way. Cashman alluded to the injury history of Giancarlo Stanton in a manner that was apparently viewed as disrespectful. Since Stanton and Yamamoto both have Joel Wolfe as an agent, some worried that the kerfuffle with Stanton would have the domino effect of spilling into their pursuit of Yamamoto. However, Andy Martino of SNY recently reported that the Japanese righty wasn’t even aware of the squabble.

In addition to the sum guaranteed to the player, a signing team will have to send money to the Orix Buffaloes, his NPB club. The MLB team will pay a fee to the Buffaloes in proportion to the size of Yamamoto’s contract. They’ll owe the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Once he is officially posted, there will be a 45-day window for him to work out a deal.

Agent Joel Wolfe Responds To Brian Cashman’s Comments On Giancarlo Stanton

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman held a fiery session with the media at last week’s GM Meetings in Arizona, speaking with a level of candor that’s not typical for himself nor for baseball operations leaders at large in today’s game. A fired-up Cashman at times took a combative tone, defending his organization’s processes, his scouts, his baseball operations personnel and his analysts — all while pushing back on the notion that the Yankees are driven primarily by data and analytics at the expense of conventional means of scouting and player evaluation.

Cashman wasn’t shy about acknowledging blame for the state of the Yankees’ 2023 roster. “We lost way too many games last year,” he said (video link via SNY). “…That’s my fault. I’m responsible as the baseball operations GM. If the owner wants to tag me out at any time, he clearly can do that.”

Among the many contributing factors to the Yankees’ playoff miss in 2023 was an unusually weak season from Giancarlo Stanton at the plate. Injuries are nothing new for the towering slugger, but Stanton’s .191/.275/.420 batting line was uncharacteristically feeble. Cashman plainly acknowledged as much during his broad-reaching address with the media.

“We’ve got to get Stanton up and running again,” the GM said (link via Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News). “He’s injury-prone. We all have lived and known that, but he’s never not hit when he’s playing, and this year is the first time that that’s happened. … We try to limit the time he’s down, but I’m not gonna tell you he’s gonna play every game next year because he’s not. He’s going to wind up getting hurt again more likely than not because it seems to be part of his game. But I know that when he’s right and healthy — other than this past year — the guy’s a great hitter and has been for awhile.”

Given Stanton’s frequent trips to the injured list, nothing Cashman said stands out as especially unfair. Certainly, it’s uncommon for any top baseball ops exec to speak so candidly, but with the possible exception of calling injuries “a part of [Stanton’s] game,” it was a fairly measured characterization of the situation. Cashman noted that Stanton himself has been frustrated by his injuries and declining mobility and has worked to get some answers. On multiple occasions, he referenced what a typically productive hitter Stanton has been.

Nonetheless, it seems at least part of Cashman’s comments struck a chord with Stanton or his representatives at Wasserman — likely the characterization that future injuries are an inevitability. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic spoke with agent Joel Wolfe about the surprisingly frank comments from Cashman.

“I read the context of the entire interview,” Wolfe tells Rosenthal. “I think it’s a good reminder for all free agents considering signing in New York, both foreign and domestic, that to play for this team you’ve got to be made of Teflon, both mentally and physically because you can never let your guard down — even in the offseason.”

Wolfe slipping the “both foreign and domestic” qualifier into his quote surely piques the interest of Yankee fans — and not in a good way. Wolfe is the agent for star Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will be posted for MLB clubs in the near future. The Yankees are known to have interest in signing Yamamoto, who will be one of the most sought-after players to ever make the jump from NPB to MLB. The 25-year-old ace has won NPB’s Cy Young equivalent, the Sawamura Award, in each of the past three seasons and just wrapped up a season that saw him log a 1.21 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

Understandably, Wolfe’s comments have created some angst among an already frustrated Yankee fan base that has been hoping for broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. It’s already clear that there won’t be any sweeping changes to the organizational hierarchy, and any instance that comes with the perceived possibility of hindering the chances of augmenting the roster aren’t well received.

That said, it still seems unlikely that the comments regarding Stanton will ultimately present any real impact on the team’s negotiations with Yamamoto. The expectation has been and should continue to be that the right-hander will sign for the best offer. Perhaps if the Yankees’ best offer is identical or only narrowly separated from a competitor, something along the lines of the Stanton/Wolfe comments can tip the scales away from the Yankees, but there are numerous small factors that can sway negotiations when things are that close.

It’s hard to envision a scenario where Yamamoto leaves an extra year or significant per-annum dollars on the table over Cashman’s candid comments regarding a player who’s not even Yamamoto’s own teammate at present. Yankee fans will surely point back to the comments from Cashman and Wolfe’s reply if Yamamoto lands elsewhere — and perhaps that’s the true motivation behind making them, to increase pressure on Cashman — but the Yamamoto bidding was always going to be fiercely competitive. In the grand scheme of determining factors for where Yamamoto lands, this seems like little more than a footnote. Nevertheless, it also offers a glimpse at why so many executives defer to boilerplate speak and generalities in media sessions like the one held by Cashman last week.

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