On-Base Problems And Possible Solutions
As a group, MLB players tend to reach base approximately one third of the time, but this year has been different. It has been more than a decade since hitters posted an on-base percentage as low as .319, the current MLB mark.
That means the Rockies’ .319 mark isn’t as bad as it seems and makes the Cardinals’ .360 mark doubly impressive (especially when you consider how mediocre their best player has been).
There’s more to offense than on-base percentage, but there’s something to be said for not making outs, so teams with poor OBPs may look to fortify their respective offenses this summer. Here’s a look at which potential contenders may look to acquire on-base help and which players they could target to boost scoring (all stats are entering the day's action):
Oakland Athletics (27th in MLB with a .303 OBP)
The A’s, a team many of associate with high-OBP hitters, aren’t doing much better than the tepid offenses in Minnesota and San Diego when it comes to getting on base. Mark Ellis (.243 OBP), Kevin Kouzmanoff (.238) and Andy LaRoche (.295) have been Oakland’s primary culprits. Ellis’ career mark of .332 gives the A’s some hope at second, but LaRoche hasn’t done much better than Kouzmanoff since taking over at third, so GM Billy Beane may have to consider some other possible solutions. Wilson Betemit (.383 OBP), Chase Headley (.381) and the surprising and versatile Ryan Roberts (.395) are potential third base targets for the A’s, whose offensive woes aren’t limited to OBP.
San Francisco Giants (25th in MLB with a .308 OBP)
No team in baseball has scored fewer runs than the Giants (164) and their low OBP doesn’t help. The primary culprits so far? Aubrey Huff (.280 OBP) and Miguel Tejada (.241). Brandon Belt (.484 OBP at Triple-A) awaits another shot at big league pitching, but improving the offensive output at shortstop won’t be so easy or cheap. Possible solutions include Stephen Drew (.352 OBP) and, of course, Jose Reyes (.365).
Atlanta Braves (T-24th in MLB with a .309 OBP)
Dan Uggla (.256 OBP) and Alex Gonzalez (.295) are the primary culprits, but they appear to be entrenched as everyday players. Perhaps the Braves would have interest in a middle infielder out of the Eric Hinske mold – someone who can play multiple positions and get on base at a decent clip. Possible solutions include Roberts, Jamey Carroll (.371 OBP), Robert Andino (.368) and Marco Scutaro (.316).
Tampa Bay Rays (T-24th in MLB with a .309 OBP)
Rays shortstops have combined for a .244 OBP and the team’s catchers have combined for a .256 mark. Reid Brignac (.210 OBP), Elliot Johnson (.306), John Jaso (.279) and Kelly Shoppach (.247) are the primary culprits. If the Rays decide Jaso and Shoppach aren’t going to return to their respectable career levels, they could explore a deal for Miguel Montero (.358 OBP), Wilson Ramos (.339) or Ryan Doumit (.354). The shortstops listed above also represent possible solutions, though OBP is just one of many considerations for such a demanding defensive position.
Philadelphia Phillies (19th in MLB with a .314 OBP)
It seems weird to say so, but the Phillies have had a below-average offense so far this year (20th in MLB with 189 runs scored). Phillies second basemen (.264 OBP) and center fielders (.305) have been the primary culprits so far. But Chase Utley (.380 career OBP) has returned from the disabled list and Shane Victorino (.343 OBP in 2011) could be back as soon as next Friday, so the Phillies may not have to explore the trade market for possible solutions.
Heyman On Reyes, Rodriguez, A’s, Minaya
We know that Mets owner Fred Wilpon doesn’t think Jose Reyes is a $142MM player, but how do other insiders see it? Jon Heyman of SI.com hears from five MLB executives who estimate Reyes will sign for somewhere between $45-108MM after the season when he hits free agency. Here’s the latest from around the majors, with a focus on Reyes’ Mets:
- Francisco Rodriguez, who can veto trades to ten teams, told Heyman that he understands baseball is “a business” and deals happen.
- There’s no chance the Mariners trade Felix Hernandez now that they’re playing better, according to Heyman.
- If the White Sox make a starter available, Edwin Jackson could be the one to hit the trade market, as he’s eligible for free agency after the season.
- Over the weekend, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk weighed in on what a “bad” season would mean for Albert Pujols. Heyman says Pujols will surely do well even if his off-year continues, since the Cardinals “aren't going to lower their offer of nine years and more than $200MM.”
- Ivan Rodriguez repeated that he wants to play three more years.
- Despite the recent controversy involving A’s manager Bob Geren and relievers Brian Fuentes and Huston Street, Heyman says the skipper “isn't going anywhere.”
- The Indians are one of a few teams that has shown interest in former Mets and Expos GM Omar Minaya.
Olney On Reyes, Crisp, Braves
The latest from ESPN's Buster Olney…
- The Mets must avoid diminishing or marginalizing GM Sandy Alderson, writes Olney. A source told the ESPN scribe, "If he gets some space, there is a lot of potential for great things to happen."
- The Mets have not engaged Jose Reyes' agent Peter Greenberg in contract talks, reports Olney. Mets owner Fred Wilpon told Jeffrey Toobin of The New Yorker on April 20th that Reyes "thinks he's going to get Carl Crawford money," but Olney's source says Wilpon isn't in a position to know what Reyes wants. Perhaps Wilpon simply heard the Crawford comparison via the rumor mill.
- Olney feels that center fielder Coco Crisp "would be in the shop window" if the Athletics look to move pieces. Crisp, 31, is hitting .278/.308/.420 in 170 plate appearances on the season and earns $5.75MM. Still, even after dropping six in a row the A's are only three games back in their division.
- Olney speculates that Crisp would be a natural fit for the Braves, who will employ Jordan Schafer in center field while Nate McLouth is on the DL. Right fielder Jason Heyward is also on the DL. Olney says the Braves would love to add a leadoff hitter, something Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote about on May 16th.
Quick Hits: Herrera, Bautista, Blevins
Today the Brewers claimed Danny Herrera from Cincinnati, the Reds optioned Edinson Volquez to the minors and Josh Hamilton homered in his return from the disabled list. The connection? Back in December of 2007, the Rangers sent Herrera and Volquez to Cincinnati for Hamilton. Here are the latest links from around the league…
- The Brewers optioned Herrera to Triple-A Nashville and moved left-hander Manny Parra to the 60-day DL, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (on Twitter).
- One Blue Jays person told Danny Knobler of CBSSports that Jose Bautista is “our Derek Jeter.” Bautista hit homer #19 today as the Blue Jays defeated Jeter’s Yankees.
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues points out that recently-designated southpaw Jerry Blevins could be an appealing option for the Yankees if they're looking for more upside than Randy Flores offers.
- Earlier today, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes suggested that the Yankees are one of many contenders that could look for lefty relief.
Athletics Designate Jerry Blevins For Assignment
The Athletics designated lefty reliever Jerry Blevins for assignment, tweets the team. The move opens a spot on the active roster for Josh Outman, who is scheduled to make his first Major League appearance in nearly two years tonight.
Blevins, 27, appeared in 15 games for the A's this year. He struck out 13 but walked 13 in 14 1/3 innings. In his career, he's handled lefties very well: a 10.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.83 HR/9 in 54 innings. The A's should be able to find a trade partner within the next ten days.
Athletics Sign Lenny DiNardo
The Athletics have signed Lenny DiNardo according to Mike Ashmore of The Hunterdon County Democrat (on Twitter). He will report to Triple-A.
DiNardo, 31, had been pitching with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League after the Red Sox released him from his minor league contract at the end of Spring Training. He had a 5.09 ERA in 17 2/3 innings with the Ducks before catching back on with the A's, with whom he spent 2007-2008. DiNardo last appeared in the big leagues in 2009 and owns a 5.36 ERA in 257 MLB innings.
The A's are dealing with injuries to Dallas Braden (shoulder), Rich Harden (lat), Brandon McCarthy (shoulder), and Tyson Ross (oblique), so DiNardo will serve as rotation depth in Triple-A.
AL West Notes: Ross, Lee, Faulkner
Craig Breslow has a 3.02 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 146 innings with the Athletics. It was on this date two years ago that the A's claimed the left-hander off of waivers from the Twins. Here's the latest on the A's and their division…
- Tyson Ross is injured and Dallas Braden is out for most or all of the season, so the A’s could use rotation help. Assistant GM David Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that the A’s are likely to fill the void in their rotation internally. "I don't know a lot of teams that'll give away starting pitchers this time of year," Forst said.
- As much as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports likes Cliff Lee, he thinks the Rangers are better off long-term without the left-hander. GM Jon Daniels tells Rosenthal that the Rangers still have depth, though they weren't happy to miss out on Lee last winter.
- The Rangers are interested in high school left-hander Andrew Faulkner for the MLB draft, MLBTR has learned. The 6’4” southpaw has an 88-92 mph fastball and a commitment to the University of South Carolina.
AL West Notes: Ackley, Braden, Weaver
It's still a little early to be thinking about trades, but the Mariners are contemplating a big mid-season addition nonetheless. Here's the latest…
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times hears that the Mariners aren't in a rush to promote Dustin Ackley, though they like what they've seen from him at the plate. Baker says the Mariners don't want to risk paying Ackley for four years of arbitration when his glove isn't ready. Despite Ackley's hitting, they don't feel he's ready defensively.
- Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner hears that the Mariners could call on Ackley as soon as tomorrow. The hot-hitting prospect homered today and the Mariners aren't worried about the possibility that Ackley will qualify for super two status, according to Cameron. Ackley would have a good chance at qualifying for arbitration four times if he gets the call tomorrow and stays in the Majors.
- Dallas Braden underwent successful surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, the A’s announced. The left-hander is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- As Tom Verducci of SI.com explains, Angels ace Jered Weaver has become a strikeout pitcher in spite of his "pipe cleaner legs" and 90 mph fastball. Weaver could double his $7.365MM salary in 2012 thanks to those strikeout numbers, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in detail earlier this month.
Gammons On A’s, Pirates, Royals, Rays
Starting pitching is one of the most valuable assets in the game and, as Peter Gammons explains at MLB.com, small-market teams usually have to rely on the draft to obtain it. Here are Gammons’ latest notes from around the league…
- A's GM Billy Beane says his current rotation, a group that’s more or less untouchable, could be as good as Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito were. Trevor Cahill has “become one of the best pitchers in the game,” according to Beane.
- "Let's face it, no small-market team can afford to go into the market to get starting pitching," Beane told Gammons. "To survive and compete, you have to draft and develop pitching, or go out and get it before it's on the Major League radar screen."
- Gammons reports that some expect the Pirates to take Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen with the first overall pick this June. Click here for MLBTR's Q&A with Hultzen.
- Georgia Tech Lefty Jed Bradley will likely disappear within the first ten picks of the draft, and Connecticut righty Matt Barnes will likely be a top-15 selection.
- The Royals are looking for a college starter who can arrive in the Major Leagues and make an impact in the rotation soon.
- Royals GM Dayton Moore agrees that you need pitching to go along with premium position players. “They're not going to win if we don't find young, affordable pitching," Moore said.
- The D’Backs, who hold two of the first seven picks this year (#3, #7), will take at least one arm early on and the Rays are also likely to take a number of pitchers with some of their many high picks.
Heyman On Blue Jays, Royals, Bradley, Reyes
The trade that sent Vernon Wells from Toronto to Anaheim was the “Holy Grail” of deals for the Blue Jays and the best move of the winter, writes Jon Heyman of SI.com. Jose Bautista's five-year, $65MM contract places second on Heyman's list of teams' top offseason moves. As Heyman says, Bautista could have been in position to earn $100MM or more as a free agent after the season if the Blue Jays hadn't signed him long-term. Here are the rest of Heyman's rumors:
- Royals GM Dayton Moore is pleased with Jeff Francoeur's production so far and says the outfielder does a lot of things well, though he “doesn't have a knack for getting on base.” As I showed last week, the Royals are getting lots out of their free agent acquisitions so far in 2011.
- Can Milton Bradley find another job? Five MLB executives expressed at least strong doubt about Bradley's future job prospects in the Major Leagues. His fading offense and poor defense don't make up for the distractions he creates, which led one exec to predict that the outfielder's “career is over” now that Seattle designated him for assignment. Others expect Bradley to get one last chance.
- It's early, but Heyman suggests the White Sox, Tigers and A's look like possibilities for Carlos Beltran this summer. Beltran has a no-trade clause and is impressing scouts early on this season.
- The Red Sox and Blue Jays could be interested in catcher Jordan Weems, a high schooler who is moving up some draft boards.
- Heyman hears that it's “highly unlikely” that the Red Sox would be willing to meet the Mets' asking price for Jose Reyes this summer.