A’s Young Starters Basically Untouchable
The A's will explore ways of upgrading their roster this season, but the youngest members of their rotation are 'basically untouchable,' according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Tyson Ross are likely staying put this summer, Olney reports.
Dallas Braden, now on the 15-day DL and Brandon McCarthy round out Oakland's rotation, which could be a constant for years to come. The A's have Anderson and Cahill under team control through 2015 and 2017, respectively. Ross isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2016 season, Gonzalez isn't eligible until after 2015 and Braden is under team control for 2012-13.
A's starters are first in the majors in ERA (2.59), second in innings pitched (236) and third in BB/9 (2.48) and xFIP (3.29). The early results are good and it wouldn't be hard to argue that Gonzalez (25), Ross (24), Cahill (23) and Anderson (23) have yet to reach their prime.
MLBTR's Luke Adams recently looked at Gonzalez as an extension candidate and I explained why the A's may choose to go year-to-year with Gonzalez and Braden instead of extending the left-handers.
2012 Contract Issues: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (7)
- David DeJesus, Mark Ellis, Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, Hideki Matsui, and Conor Jackson have accounted for 729 plate appearances this year, about 54% of the team's total. Throw in non-tender candidate Kevin Kouzmanoff and that rises past 60%, so the offense could see huge turnover. Jackson is getting on base, and Willingham is showing some pop, but so far this large group of position players is failing offensively. There is plenty of time to turn things around, and players such as Ellis, Crisp, and DeJesus are also valued for their defense. Still, the team's top outfield prospects are not ready to make an impact in 2012, so offense could again be a problem.
- Rich Harden is also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (1)
- Michael Wuertz: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout. Wuertz missed time with shoulder and hamstring injuries, but he's been sharp in the early going. The A's will probably pick up his option.
Arbitration Eligible (14)
- First time: Andrew Bailey, Daric Barton, Adam Rosales, Jerry Blevins, Gio Gonzalez, Landon Powell
- Second time: Dallas Braden, Ryan Sweeney, Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler, Andy LaRoche
- Third time: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Brandon McCarthy, Joey Devine
There might be a few non-tenders here, such as Kouzmanoff, but this is a huge arbitration class for Oakland. Bailey will not have the 100 career saves that Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon did, but he could still get $3MM+. Barton may also be in that range, Braden should stay there, and Gonzalez could reach $4MM. Sweeney, Breslow, and Ziegler could get close to $2MM each. McCarthy is tough to predict, and keep in mind that these are just rough estimates in all cases. Assuming only Kouzmanoff is cut loose I'll put this group in the $25MM range.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Athletics' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $24.238MM if Wuertz is retained. Double that number to account for the arbitration eligibles, and the A's are about $17MM below this year's payroll. Jemile Weeks could take over at second base, but the team would need to figure out third base, DH, and all three outfield spots. GM Billy Beane will probably have to work the trade market to find affordable, useful players for some of those openings.
AL West Notes: Barton, Angels, Wilhelmsen
Happy birthday to Rangers manager Ron Washington, who turns 59 years old today. Let's celebrate by taking a look at some items from Washington's division…
- Daric Barton admits that he has been thinking about his multiyear contract negotiations with the Athletics, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. "It's always in the back of your mind," Barton said. "It's not something you like to think about, but realistically, it happens." We heard about these negotiations last month, with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noting that Barton's walk-heavy production could make him a bargain for the A's if they choose to go to arbitration with the first baseman.
- The Angels are integrating young players into their lineup while still remaining competitive in the AL West, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
- Mike Trout is having a nice season at Double-A Arkansas, but ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill predicts Trout will only reach the majors in 2011 if the Angels want to give him a few token at-bats in September. Churchill speculates that Trout might skip Triple-A altogether and potentially make the Angels out of Spring Training next year, or at least be in the majors by May 2012 (or after next year's Super Two cutoff date).
- Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports profiles Mariners right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen, who made his improbable Major League debut this season after spending five years away from the sport.
Gabe Gross Retires
Gabe Gross has decided to retire, reports Jon Johnson of The Enterprise Ledger. Said Gross:
"I just felt like my heart wasn’t into it. This and quitting football are the two hardest decisions I’ve ever made."
Gross signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in February, and after a March release he was ready to hang up his cleats. But then he took the Marlins up on an offer last week. When his Sunday physical was delayed, he thought about it for an extra day and decided to retire to spend time with his wife and two kids.
The 31-year-old finishes his career having earned approximately $5MM, including his signing bonus as the 15th overall pick out of Auburn by the Blue Jays in 2001. He posted a .239/.330/.385 line in seven seasons for the Jays, Brewers, Rays, and Athletics. Gross was involved in the 2005 deal in which the Jays also sent Dave Bush to the Brewers for Lyle Overbay.
Dodgers Takeover Links: Thursday
Yesterday MLB made a move to wrest ownership of the Dodgers from Frank McCourt, taking over financial operations for the club. Ramona Shelburne of ESPN Los Angeles wrote, "Never in the modern history of professional sports has there been such a hostile takeover." The decision was an accumulation of all of McCourt's missteps, writes Yahoo's Tim Brown. The takeover is a hot topic today, so we'll be adding the latest links in the top bullets.
- Bud Selig said the Dodgers' ownership problems are "not similar" to the Mets' financial situation, reports John Cherwa of the Los Angeles Times. Selig made a slight comparison between Major League Baseball's takeover of the Dodgers and when the league stepped in to handle the Rangers' sale last year.
- History isn't on McCourt's side, as the courts have traditionally upheld the commissioner's jurisdiction over the sport, reports Victoria Kim, Chris Goffard and Dan Weikel for the L.A. Times.
- Brewers owner Mark Attanasio "dismissed…completely" any interest in buying the Dodgers, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- Athletics owner Lew Wolff is also not interested in the Dodgers, reports Shaikin.
- A rival executive doubts McCourt will sue, talking to ESPN's Buster Olney. The owner seems to have little chance at winning and is already short on cash.
- This link is from yesterday, but Jonah Keri's article for FanGraphs on what it was like when MLB owned the Expos is a good read. Meanwhile, Keri's colleague Dave Cameron notes that the Dodgers were already notorious for making payroll-neutral deals, so GM Ned Colletti can probably keep doing that this summer.
- Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times says Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and White Sox executive Dennis Gilbert are "the two parties most often mentioned as interested buyers," assuming MLB tries to force a sale. Tom Werner, part of Boston's ownership group, is not interested, learned Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Shaikin notes that Selig "has anticipated the possibility of a legal challenge by McCourt, which could delay any ownership change."
- MLB "will now have approval rights over every significant expenditure by the team, including a trade or contract extension," write David Wharton and Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. Former Braves and Nationals executive Stan Kasten is a candidate to be Selig's point man in charge of the Dodgers, according to ESPN Los Angeles. John McHale Jr. and Corey Busch are other possibilities.
- Dodgers outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier reiterated to Dylan Hernandez that they want to remain with the team. Both players are looking at eight-figure arbitration rewards for 2012, after which they can become free agents.
Should They Have Been Non-Tendered?
On November 2nd of last year I listed 85 non-tender candidates, most of whom were indeed cut loose. Almost five months have passed since the December non-tender deadline, and I'd like to revisit five of those decisions.
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, tendered a contract by the Athletics. The A's certainly shopped around for third base alternatives after tendering a contract to Kouzmanoff, which ended up being for $4.75MM. So far the third baseman has again been part of the problem, though he's not alone as the team ranks 11th in the AL with 3.63 runs scored per game. There weren't many alternatives for the A's this offseason, but they probably should have saved Kouzmanoff's money for a trade deadline addition. They'll still be able to pursue someone, though.
- James Loney, tendered a contract by the Dodgers. Loney is already on notice with the Dodgers given the arrival of Jerry Sands. Loney settled for a predictable $4.875MM salary for 2011. Sands doesn't actually project to do any better than Loney, but the two are close enough that the Dodgers probably should have traded Loney and used the money elsewhere.
- Russell Martin, non-tendered by the Dodgers. According to Yahoo's Steve Henson, Martin wanted a guaranteed $5.5MM rather than the Dodgers' offer of $4.2MM. GM Ned Colletti made the difficult decision to non-tender Martin, but kept the offer on the table while suggesting a possible super-utility role. Martin ended up taking less guaranteed money to start at catcher for the Yankees, and he's off to a great start. The Dodgers could have forced Martin's hand by tendering a contract and arguing for a pay cut through arbitration. That would have been a risky choice, and Martin's health was a concern at the time, so I can't fault the Dodgers for non-tendering him.
- Bobby Jenks, non-tendered by the White Sox. Non-tendering Jenks was the right move given his $7.5MM salary, and the pitcher understood that decision according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. However, Jenks and the Sox were not on the same page about the team's desire to retain him and confidence in his abilities, so he signed with Boston. The White Sox lead baseball with six blown saves, but it was still best for them to part ways with Jenks.
- Brandon McCarthy, outrighted by the Rangers in November. If they had retained McCarthy, the Rangers probably would have had to pay him something similar to last year's $1.3MM salary rather than the $1MM he received from the A's. McCarthy has looked good so far, though it's only been three starts. The Rangers are second in the AL in starter ERA without McCarthy. Still, given the strong offseason interest in him I think it would have been best to tender a contract and shop him around.
Athletics Acquire David Purcey
The Athletics acquired lefty David Purcey from the Blue Jays for minor league reliever Danny Farquhar, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The deal is now official. The A's cleared a space on the 25-man roster by putting Dallas Braden on the DL, and gained a spot on the 40-man by transferring Rich Harden to the 60-day DL, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
Purcey, 29 in a few days, was designated for assignment by the Jays last week. He drew "very strong" interest, according to GM Alex Anthopoulos. The former first-rounder is out of options, so the A's must keep him in the Majors or attempt to pass him through waivers. Purcey, who switched to the bullpen to start the 2010 season, has battled control problems for much of his career. He's always posted strong strikeout rates, averaging 92-93 miles per hour on his fastball since converting to the bullpen.
Though they sandwiched an elbow strain, Purcey's '07 and '08 stints in the minors did include good control. Purcey seemed to be on to something in '08, finishing the season in the Majors and tossing a couple of eight-inning gems. MLB.com's Jane Lee has a bit more on Purcey, after talking to A's assistant GM David Forst.
Farquhar, 24, returns to his old organization after a brief stint this year as a Sacramento River Cat. The A's had acquired him in November as part of the Rajai Davis deal with Toronto. He posted a 3.52 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9 in 76 2/3 Double-A relief innings last year. Baseball America ranked him 22nd among A's prospects, noting that his "defining characteristic is his use of two different arm angles."
Quick Hits: Guillen, Royals, Harden, Tribe
The Nationals have announced the passing of shortstop prospect Yewri Guillen due to bacterial meningitis. Guillen, 18, was signed by Washington in February and was playing at the club's Dominican Republic academy. He was honored with a moment of silence before tonight's Brewers/Nationals game. MLBTR sends our condolences to Guillen's friends and family.
Some news from around the majors…
- Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star discussed potential call-ups and other roster moves for the Royals in a chat with fans this afternoon.
- Rich Harden has suffered an injury to his teres major muscle that will likely elongate his stay on the disabled list, reports MLB.com's Eric Gilmore. Harden, who signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Athletics in December, has been on the DL with an injury to his throwing shoulder.
- Are the surprising Indians for real? Probably not, says Fangraphs' Steve Slowinski, but the Tribe has so many young players on the roster that it's hard to calculate if these players will drastically fall off or if some are just developing. Slowinski also notes that Cleveland is winning despite slow starts from expected stars like Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana.
- The White Sox closer will be "whoever is there in the ninth inning," Ozzie Guillen tells Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune. We didn't get a chance to see a save situation tonight as Chicago lost to the Angels, but keep following @CloserNews (MLBTR's sister Twitter feed) for the latest on who will be finishing games for the Pale Hose.
Olney On The Bullpen Market
Teams like the Yankees and White Sox are already encountering bullpen problems and it won’t be long before other clubs are looking for relief help as well. The Yankees aren’t optimistic about the current relief market, while Chicago’s search for an effective closer has manager Ozzie Guillen dreaming of Bobby Thigpen. As one GM points out to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, lots of teams will be looking for bullpen help this summer and lots of effective pitchers should eventually become available.
Unless Heath Bell takes a massive discount to stay in San Diego, Olney suggests the Padres will deal him. The White Sox should be considered the early favorites to land Bell, Olney says.
Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Rodriguez and the Blue Jays and Rays relievers could also become available this summer. Jose Valverde will probably stay in Detroit unless the Tigers fall far out of the race, but Michael Wuertz (now on the disabled list) could be on the block even if Oakland contends.
A’s Have Team Control Without Extensions
It’s no secret that the A’s have extended starting pitchers aggressively over the course of the past decade. Oakland GM Billy Beane says it’s a blueprint for success for teams with limited revenue and he has put that theory to the test. Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Brett Anderson and, now, Trevor Cahill have all signed long-term deals early on in their MLB careers.
Naturally, fans, reporters and players themselves are wondering which starter is next in line for an extension. It could be Dallas Braden, author of a perfect game and many a memorable quote. It could be Gio Gonzalez, the promising left-hander who reached the 200 inning plateau last year, posting a 3.23 ERA with 171 strikeouts. Or, for a while at least, it could be no one at all.
Technically speaking, Braden and Gonzalez (both pictured) aren’t under contract beyond 2011. The urge to extend them and solidify the rotation for the foreseeable future is understandable. In a way, the Athletics’ current rotation is a successor to the big three of Hudson, Zito and Mulder. Locking a number of starters up before free agency seems like the logical course of action for a team like the A’s, which embraces these extensions.
But in practice, Braden and Gonzalez are A’s property through at least 2013 even though they don’t have formal extensions. Braden is under control for 2012-13 (estimated $14.5MM total cost through arbitration) and Gonzalez is under control for 2012-15 (estimated $26MM total cost through arbitration).
Essentially the A’s have two club options for Braden and four club options for Gonzalez without guaranteeing either pitcher a dime beyond 2011. Beane can release or non-tender either starter at his convenience if he determines they’re no longer worth what they’d make through arbitration. As is usually the case with players who have yet to hit free agency, the team has most of the power.
There are potential advantages to signing Braden or Gonzalez to an extension. Long-term deals cap arbitration earnings, often provide the team with extremely valuable options for free agent years and allow the players to focus on performing, rather than earning.
At some point, however the risks associated with extensions outweigh those advantages. Extensions usually provide players with guaranteed money through their arbitration years, instead of rewarding them according to their performance. As a result, the deals can backfire when players get injured or perform poorly.
The A’s could emerge with more team-friendly contracts by signing Braden or Gonzalez to the right long-term deal. But they are no doubt aware that there’s no pressing need for extensions, since their rotation is already under long-term control.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.