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Odubel Herrera

NL Notes: Phillies, Cubs, Marlins

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The Phillies have done a good job of avoiding toxic contracts, but they also don’t have much in the way of homegrown stars in the upper levels of the minors, Matt Gelb of the Athletic notes. It seems obvious, then, that the route to improve this offseason is the free agent market, and they have been one of the teams with assumed interest in free agency’s biggest fishes, to wit, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That said, owner John Middleton once balked at a perceived lack of on-field hustle from former Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, which would seem at odds with a willingness to go all-in on Machado, given his growing reputation. Generational talents or not, it’s Middleton’s money, and it’ll ultimately be his decision whether or not Machado and Harper are worth the long-term investment. 

  • Regardless of what happens with Machado and Harper, the Phillies do not appear inclined to overreach in the secondary market, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, specifically as it pertains to their outfield, where in-house options Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, and Aaron Altherr are comparable-to and cheaper-than the middle class of talent available in free agency. GM Matt Klentak also says the Phillies are unlikely to explore the starting pitching market, despite potential interest in upgrading in that area. They are hypothetically interested in a left-handed starter, but Patrick Corbin, the top name on the market, figures to command more money than the Phillies are willing to spend on him. 
  • Cole Hamels is open to signing an extension with the Cubs, or at least that’s the impression 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine came away with after speaking with his agent, John Boggs. The Cubs have until Thursday to decide whether to pick up Hamels’ $20MM option for the 2019 season or let the Texas Rangers pay his $6MM buyout. His impressive turnaround with the Cubs (12 starts, 2.36 ERA, 3.59 xFIP) leads many to believe the team option will be exercised, but nothing official has come down from Chicago yet. If the Cubs do pick up the option, they could begin negotiating an extension as early as Friday with the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty. In theory, the Cubs could decline their option and negotiate a new contract with Hamels from there. This is unlikely, however, as the Rangers would be on the hook for the $6MM buyout, and they’d have grounds to file a grievance in that circumstance. However it happens, we should know by Thursday if Hamels will play his 2019 home games at Wrigley Field.
  • The Marlins are open to being active in free agency this offseason, albeit for moderately-priced, low-risk veterans, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. With six arbitration cases and only three hefty contracts on the books, the Marlins are better positioned than in recent seasons to bring in some reinforcements from the outside to help build culture and mentor their younger players. One of those arbitration cases, last year’s Opening Day starter Jose Urena, has been rumored to be available via trade, but according to Frisaro he is much more likely to be the Opening Day starter in Miami for the second consecutive season.

East Notes: Phillies, Quinn, Herrera, Yanks, CC, Rays, Jays, Estrada

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Thanks to the presence of rookie Roman Quinn, Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera has recently shifted from center field to right. It’s unclear whether that alignment will hold up in 2019, but manager Gabe Kapler said Saturday (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) that he wants both players to enter next season prepared to handle center. Kapler also suggested that Herrera hasn’t been at top physical condition this season, per Zolecki, saying: “I think he can come into camp in better shape in 2019 than he came in 2018. … This is something that he and I have discussed and will continue to discuss. I think he can be in incredible physical shape. We’ve seen it from him in the past. If you look back a couple years you see a version of him that is fast, athletic, explosive and I think that’s in there and I’m excited about helping him and supporting him to bring that out.”

Going by fWAR (1.1), this has been a dud of a season for Herrera, who posted between 2.9 and 3.8 in that category from 2015-17. Perhaps Herrera will be an offseason trade candidate, then, though the Phillies would be “selling low” on him, Zolecki points out. He also notes Quinn’s history of injuries could make it all the more difficult to part with Herrera, who’s set to turn 27 in December and has four guaranteed seasons left on the five-year, $30.5MM extension he signed prior to 2017.

Here’s more from the East Coast…

  • Major League Baseball has issued a five-game suspension to Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia and a three-game ban to Rays right-hander Andrew Kittredge, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com was among those to report. Both players will serve their suspensions at the beginning of the 2019 season, if they’re upheld through the appeals process. Sabathia was ejected from a win over the Rays on Thursday after throwing at catcher Jesus Sucre, a retaliatory move which served as a response to Kittredge nearly hitting Yankees backstop Austin Romine in the previous half-inning. Sabathia’s ejection may have cost him a significant amount of money, considering he was cruising through five innings and was only two frames away from notching 155 for the season. Had Sabathia reached that mark, he’d have secured a $500K bonus. It’s still possible the 38-year-old will earn that money, though, with George A. King III of the New York Post noting the Yankees could use him for a couple innings Sunday in Boston in a postseason tuneup. However, Sabathia told reporters on Saturday that he’s not interested in doing that (via Erik Boland of Newsday). “Nah, man, the season’s over for me. I’m ready for the lights to come on,” he said.
  • Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada won’t make his scheduled start Sunday on account of a sore back, per Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com, meaning the pending free agent may have thrown his last pitch as a member of the team. The 35-year-old Estrada, a Blue Jay since 2015, said he’d “love to hear from” the club again and is “comfortable” in Toronto, though he’s not sure whether the club’s interested in re-signing him. Thanks in part to the Jays’ youth movement, not to mention Estrada’s struggles this season, a parting of ways may be in order. Estrada had been a quality starter for the Jays from 2015-17, but he only managed a 5.64 ERA/5.44 FIP over 143 2/3 innings this year.

Looking Ahead To Phillies’ Offseason

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The Phillies fell to the NL East rival Braves on Saturday, enabling Atlanta to clinch the division and continuing a difficult few months for Philadelphia. While the Phillies have gone just 25-34 since the All-Star break to fall out of playoff contention, the team’s still 78-76 and on pace for its first .500 or better campaign since 2012. And with plenty of spending room and multiple superstars set to reach free agency over the winter, the Phillies are in for a “fascinating” offseason, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports observes (video link).

The Phillies will head into the offseason with just under $70MM in guaranteed money on their books, as Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates, but that number could decrease, per Rosenthal. Aside from ace Aaron Nola and slugger Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies will be “open to trading” just about everyone during the winter, Rosenthal reports, though he notes it’s “unlikely” they’ll end up moving first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana has come up as a speculative trade candidate, and moving him would open up first for Hoskins (who has struggled in the outfield), dealing the former “would be an admission by the Phils that they never should have signed Santana in the first place,” Rosenthal says. Santana was one of the prize pickups of last winter for the Phillies, who inked him to a three-year, $60MM deal and have since seen the longtime Indian, 32, turn in a respectable season.

Assuming both Santana and second baseman Cesar Hernandez return in 2019, the right side of the Phillies’ infield should be set. The left side may be another story, though, as the Phillies have gotten mediocre or worse production from their options at both shortstop and third base this year. That could put them in the market for pending free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado – a long-speculated target – and signing him or someone else could put the club in position to move third baseman Maikel Franco or another young infielder, Rosenthal observes.

Shifting to the outfield, Rosenthal floats the idea of the Phillies sending center fielder Odubel Herrera elsewhere to land a veteran for their rotation. After a terrific run from 2015-17, Herrera has taken steps backward this year. Nevertheless, as a soon-to-be 27-year-old with an appealing contract (he’s owed between $25.5MM to $46MM through 2023), Herrera would likely draw a fair amount of interest on the trade market. Parting with him would enable the Phillies to flip one of the younger members of their rotation “for something else they might need,” Rosenthal posits.

Whether the Phillies need to do anything of note with their starting staff is up for debate, though, as Nola, offseason signing Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta have each amassed at least 23 starts and 2.1 fWAR so far this season. Thanks largely to that quintet, Philly’s rotation ranks sixth in the majors in fWAR (15.3). Further, each member of that group is under control next season, with Arrieta’s $25MM representing the lone lofty salary of the group.

Dating back to the July All-Star break, the Phillies have fallen well out of contention in the NL East – a division they led at the midway point- and the wild-card hunt, but it still seems they’re on the right track. Indeed, general manager Matt Klentak indicated as much a week ago. He and the rest of the Phillies’ brain trust are now set to spend the coming months trying to put the club in position to snap its soon-to-be seven-year playoff drought. With a good amount talent on hand to build around, plenty of money to spend, and Machado, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw among the offseason’s potential free agents, the Phillies should be one of the majors’ most interesting teams to watch in the coming months.

NL Notes: Phillies, Hamels, Difo, Cubs

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Happy birthday to Sandy Koufax, as the legendary Dodgers southpaw turns 82 years old today.  Arm injuries forced Koufax into an early retirement after his age-30 season, bringing an end to arguably the most dominant four-year stretch of pitching in baseball history.  From 1963-66, Koufax posted a 1.86 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 4.74 K/BB rate over 1192 2/3 innings, capturing three Cy Young Awards and the 1963 NL MVP Award.

Some items from around the National League…

  • Nick Williams seems to be the likeliest of the Phillies outfielders to be used as a trade chip, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes, though there’s also a case to be made for the team to move one of Odubel Herrera or Aaron Altherr.  (Rhys Hoskins almost surely is staying put.)  Given that all three outfielders, and even Hoskins, have their share of question marks and can’t be entirely counted on as sure things going into 2018, Murphy notes that the Phillies might indeed stick to their stated plan of keeping all four players and juggling playing time based on matchups and situations.  Plans could change, of course, if the Phils are required to include one of the players in a trade for a young and controllable starting pitcher.
  • The Phillies are known to be looking for pitching, though NBCSports.com Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes that the team could wait until the July trade deadline to make a big addition to the rotation.  Asking prices could be lower for some pitchers by July, or the Phillies could have a better idea of what young players they’d be more comfortable giving up in a trade.  Interestingly, Salisbury notes that Cole Hamels could be targeted by the Phils if the Rangers fall out of contention, as both Hamels and the Phillies would have interest in the 2008 World Series hero returning to Philadelphia.
  • The Nationals rejected trade offers for Wilmer Difo last offseason, and now the young infielder is a key part of the team’s bench and potentially its second baseman of the future, the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo writes.  Difo held his own filling in for Trea Turner at shortstop last season, and if Difo continues to progress at the plate, the Nats might consider him as a possible second base option if Daniel Murphy leaves in free agency next winter.  If Murphy’s recovery from offseason knee surgery lingers past Opening Day, Difo could get an early audition at the keystone in April.
  • Since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs front office, pitchers drafted by the team have delivered just 30 innings in a Cubs uniform, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports (subscription required and recommended).  While Chicago has obviously excelled at acquiring undervalued starting pitching assets in trades, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve on its development of young pitchers, which was one reason Jim Benedict was recently hired as a special assistant within the baseball ops department.

NL East Notes: Fernandez, Phillies, Medlen, Braves

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Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald details the efforts by Major League Baseball and the Marlins to set up a fund for the infant daughter of deceased star Jose Fernandez. As Jackson explains, the money appears to have flowed from an insurance company to the league, then on to the team and into a trust for her benefit. Those interested in the specifics should read the exhaustively reported piece.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • Phillies GM Matt Klentak sat down for an interesting chat with Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, which you can watch or read about right here. It’s certainly worth a full look for Phils’ fans, as Klentak discusses the team’s woeful performance in May. He emphasized a need to remain patient and keep the focus on the future, but acknowledged the disappointment. As for two particularly important players, Klentak says the team wants to let them work things out at the major league level. There are “reasons to believe” that Maikel Franco will bust out of his slump, he says, and the organization is “committed to giving Maikel more time to get out of this.” And center fielder Odubel Herrera is still a valuable contributor in the field, Klentak notes, explaining that his struggles at the plate may be due to the fact that he is currently “not taking pitches as well as he used to.”
  • Righty Kris Medlen is still working on a comeback attempt with the Braves, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Medlen has moved up to the Double-A level and says he feels good physically after dealing with a host of arm problems and redeveloping his mechanics to compensate. The 31-year-old has allowed six earned runs on 16 hits while striking out ten batters and issuing six walks over 15 2/3 total innings through three starts. He last turned in a full and productive MLB season back in 2013 with the Braves.
  • Of more immediate concern to the Braves, the current big league club is struggling with its glovework, as O’Brien also reports. Even putting aside one horrific inning on Tuesday, Atlanta has allowed a ton of unearned runs. Metrics are split on the overall performance of the Braves fielders: UZR grades them rather well in spite of the miscues, while Defensive Runs Saved values the unit in the bottom ten leaguewide. Young shortstop Dansby Swanson has already racked up 11 errors, though both grading systems still see him as an average performer at short.

Phillies Notes: Roster, Herrera, Klentak, Burnett

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Some notes from The City Of Brotherly Love…

  • With a full 40-man roster, the Phillies have several tough choices to make before Opening Day, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes.  Chris Coghlan, Daniel Nava and Brock Stassi are in camp on minor league deals and, if any make the team, someone else would have to be displaced.  The Phils have two bench spots open, in Salisbury’s estimation, plus another bench spot for the backup catcher (either Andrew Knapp or Ryan Hanigan, the latter of whom isn’t on the 40-man).
  • The Phillies’ five-year, $30.5MM extension with Odubel Herrera is already looking like a shrewd move for the team compared to other extensions for center fielders, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer opines.  The Braves signed Ender Inciarte to a similar extension (five years and $30.525MM, with a sixth year option) while the Rays locked Kevin Kiermaier up for six years and an option for $53.5MM.  All three are strong-to-great defenders but Herrera is the best hitter of the trio, Murphy notes, plus a year younger.  The extension also allows the Phillies future flexibility under the luxury tax, making it especially valuable for a big-market club that aims to spending freely once it emerges from its rebuilding phase.
  • General manager Matt Klentak sat down with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand for an interview detailing how Klentak got his start in baseball, his path to becoming Philadelphia’s GM, some of the Phillies’ offseason moves and more.
  • Sean Burnett took a rather extreme measure to combat his elbow pain in 2013, the southpaw told PhillyVoice.com’s Ryan Lawrence last week.  Burnett was dealing with a damaged ligament that was not quite damaged enough to require Tommy John surgery (Burnett had already undergone a TJ operation in 2004), so he decided to force the issue.  “I would go back to my [hotel] room, set up some pillows on the headboard and would chuck balls at it hoping it would pop just so I could get it fixed,” Burnett said.  “The pain I was in was excruciating.  I knew it wasn’t going to get any better.  If you throw a ball long enough you know what it’s going to take and how your body feels.”  Burnett’s elbow finally gave out during a game against the Mariners in May 2014 and he underwent the surgery, which kept him out of action until this past September when he returned to the big leagues in the Nationals bullpen.  After signing a minor league deal with the Phillies this winter, Burnett is competing to be the second lefty in Philadelphia’s bullpen.

The Rule 5 Opportunity

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This is an original MLBTR article produced by contributor Dan Lumpkin and the MLBTR staff. To read more recent MLBTR originals, click here.

Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera will long be linked due to their status as division-rival center fielders who inked extremely similar five-year extensions within two weeks of one another. They’re also linked, however, by the Rule 5 Draft altering their career trajectories.

Oddly enough, it was the Phillies who selected Inciarte out of the Diamondbacks organization back in 2012. Although he didn’t stick with the team all season and was eventually shipped back to the D-backs, Inciarte tells MLBTR he’s not sure he’d be playing in the Majors today were it not for the Phillies’ show of faith.

“You know, I could say I was very under-the-radar in Arizona,” the 2016 Gold Glove winner said. “Not underrated but very under-the radar.”

Inciarte was not seen as a prospect for his organization initially but was invited to play in Winter Ball during the 2012 offseason, and that’s where Phillies scouts got a good look at him and determined that Inciarte might be able to cut it in the big leagues.

“As soon as [the Phillies] picked me it took me by surprise, to be honest,” Inciarte said. “Then I realized what [the Rule 5 Draft] was and what it meant. It really worked great for me. It doesn’t work the same for everybody because some people don’t get to play and others get to play a lot.”

Inciarte played with the Phillies in his first big league Spring Training and did well despite the Phillies’ manager mistaking him for a clubhouse employee on his first day with the team.

“When I got there on the first day, I got there at like 5:00am, and Charlie Manuel didn’t even know who I was,” Inciarte recalled. “He asked me to go get something like his shoes or his hat and I told him, ‘I’m not a clubbie, I’m the Rule 5 kid.”

Inciarte found his way with the big league club, and many of the Phillies veterans saw his ability and encouraged him throughout Spring Training. This, Inciarte said, is what made him play with confidence.

“When I was there, I was playing with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay,” Inciarte said. “I could see all those guys up close. I felt like I was living a dream, right there. All those guys got to talk to me and said, ‘Hey man, you are part of this team. Don’t think because you are a Rule 5 it isn’t going to happen.’ It gave me a lot of confidence. I had a great time there.’”

Inciarte had a good Spring Training and actually made the Opening Day roster for the Phillies as a bench player. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup, which would prove to be his only chance to suit up for the Phillies that year. Following the first game of the season, the Phillies signed Ezequiel Carrera, and it was Inciarte who lost his roster spot in a corresponding move. Inciarte was returned to the Diamondbacks.

Though some players might consider it a demotion and a disappointment to just barely sniff the Major Leagues in that manner, Inciarte views his brief stay in the Phillies organization as a turning point.

“For me, it was great because a lot of teams got to see me play and when I got back to Arizona they sent me to Double-A when I was supposed to go to Single-A,” he explained. “Everyone started paying more attention to me. I got more chances to play and prove myself. It was for the best but I know it’s not the same for everybody. When I got back Kevin Towers went to go see me play in Mobile, Alabama. He didn’t know who I was (before the draft). After the Rule 5 is when they started paying more attention to me. If it weren’t for the Phillies, I probably would not even have a chance to play in the big leagues so I’m very grateful for what happened to me.”

Inciarte’s experience with the Rule 5 process is typical — especially for position players. While it’s not uncommon to see a relief pitcher survive a season as the seventh man in a big league bullpen, there are fewer spots to stash position players on a Major League roster. That reality makes Odubel Herrera’s accomplishment of not only sticking on the Phillies’ roster all season but thriving and becoming a key long-term cog all the more impressive.

Herrera split the 2014 season between the Rangers’ Class-A Advanced and Double-A affiliates and put together a strong season. In 545 plate appearances as a 22-year-old, he batted a combined .315/.383/.388 with two home runs and 21 stolen bases. But it wasn’t enough to land him on the Rangers’ 40-man roster, and the Phillies reaped the benefits. Though Herrera had spent nearly his entire career playing second base, the Phils plucked him in the Rule 5 and shifted him to center field.

“I feel very blessed that the Rangers didn’t protect me because I am now in the big leagues and I have a long-term deal with the Phillies,” said Herrera through an interpreter. “Once I found out that the Rangers didn’t protect me, I knew in my heart that another team would pick me up through the Rule 5. … I went to Spring Training feeling a little strange but as soon as I arrived in Clearwater, the manager gave me a lot of cheers and confidence from day one.”

While Herrera’s five-year deal with the Phillies may closely mirror Inciarte’s deal with the Braves, Herrera’s Rule 5 experience in many ways is more closely aligned with that of former Marlins/Braves slugger Dan Uggla. Like Herrera, Uggla was the rare position player to be selected in the Rule 5 and plugged immediately into his new team’s Opening Day lineup despite the fact that he (like Herrera) had never played a game above the Double-A level in his career.

“I was thinking about [the Rule 5 Draft] a lot, yeah,” said Uggla when asked about being left off the Diamondbacks’ roster back in 2005. “I had a good fall league and they left me off the 40 man, so that’s obviously what I was hoping for. I found out in the morning that I had been drafted by the Marlins and it was one of the coolest moments of my career. The coolest moment up to that point.”

That moment, of course, would soon be joined by a great many more exciting moments, as Uggla went on to appear in three All-Star Games and hit 235 home runs in parts of 10 big league seasons from 2006-15. But the rarity of the chance he was given by the Marlins is not lost on him to this day.

“They gave me the everyday starting second base job in the big leagues,” Uggla said. “For a guy in my position, that was unheard of. It involves an extreme amount of luck and timing. I could have gotten called up with any team and there’s a good chance I wouldn’t have got to play. Maybe a couple pinch hits or a spot-start against a really tough pitcher, maybe I would have gotten sent back down. But to be in that situation and to make the team and they just let you play everyday, that was pretty amazing.”

Uggla also credited timing as a significant factor in his opportunity to start playing in the Majors. During the offseason he was picked up, the Marlins were in the midst of a fire sale in which they traded several starting players to build up their farm system. This flurry of trades opened up the Marlins’ depth chart and created an opportunity for Uggla to prove himself against big league pitchers.

“They had just made a bunch of trades and started from scratch with a bunch of younger guys and rookies,” Uggla said. “It was cool. I got to walk in and be at the team meeting and I found my place on the team.”

Rebuilding clubs indeed have an easier time carrying a Rule 5 pick over a marathon regular season, and that was a large factor in Joakim Soria’s emergence in the Majors, as his agent, Oscar Suarez points out.

“As a pitcher, you go in with a second-tier team, like Joakim did with Kansas City at the time — they are no longer a second-tier team by any stretch of the imagination — but going in, they had no closer,” Suarez recalled. “Joakim was a starter, but they had no closer so they put him in the pen, and he beat everyone else out and before you know it, he was their closer. As an agent, yeah, you want any of your players to be Rule Fived, but you need to be realistic. What team are they going to go to? Like, if you are an infielder and you get Rule Fived by the Seattle Mariners, you say, ‘thank you for bringing me to your big league camp,’ but you know they aren’t going to keep you.”

That’s the reality that faces a handful of players each year following their selection in the Rule 5, but the opportunity with which they’re presented is one that is the envy of other players and agents throughout the game. This year, there were 18 players selected in the Rule 5 Draft, and if history is any indication, the vast majority of them will be returned to their original organization. A few may be picked up by other clubs along the way before being offered back, but it’s rare for a player to survive the season and even more rare for them to then emerge as regulars. For the select few who do, however, the Rule 5 Draft will always be looked at as a watershed moment in their career.

“It is a good thing for players like me that don’t get protected and because of that rule now, I’m a big leaguer,” said Herrera. “…I feel very grateful and very humble for the Rule 5 draft.”

Special thanks to Leo Nunez and Estefany Palacio for translation assistance.

Phillies Extend Odubel Herrera

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SATURDAY: Heyman tweets that Herrera will receive a $1.75MM signing bonus, $1.25MM in 2017, $3MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, $7MM in 2020, and $10MM in 2021.

FRIDAY: The options come with $2.5MM and $1MM buyouts, respectively, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

THURSDAY: The Phillies have announced a five-year extension for center fielder Odubel Herrera, which comes with a $30.5MM guarantee, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). The deal includes club options for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, which are valued at $11.5MM and $12.5MM, respectively, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (on Twitter). Herrera is represented by Victor Tranquillo.

With the move, the Phils will add control over three projected free-agent seasons over their present and future center fielder. Herrera entered the year with two full years of MLB service, meaning he would have expected to qualify for arbitration next winter and hit the open market in advance of the 2021 season.

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Instead, Herrera — who’ll soon turn 25 — will be under contract through at least his age-29 season. As Gelb notes on Twitter, it appears to be the first significant contract extension the team has struck with a player of such little experience.

Taken as a Rule 5 pick from the Rangers under the former regime, led by much-maligned GM Ruben Amaro Jr., Herrera immediately blossomed into a quality regular. In his first season in the majors, Herrera slashed .297/.344/.418 and contributed eight home runs and 16 steals (though he was also gunned down on eight other attempts). With high-quality, up-the-middle glovework and strong overall baserunning contributions factored in, Herrera was a four-WAR player right out of the gates.

Though his overall offensive output remained at about 10% better than league average in 2016, it’s certainly arguable that Herrera took a big step forward at the plate. He not only trimmed his strikeouts to a 20.4% rate that falls just below league average, but nearly doubled his walk rate to a strong 9.6%. Herrera also jumped to 15 home runs, though he’s still below-average in overall power (.134 ISO), and stole 25 bags (against seven times caught stealing). While both UZR and DRS were somewhat less enamored of his glovework in the sophomore campaign, he still rated comfortably above average in the field and also on the bases.

Even if Herrera’s batting average on balls in play comes back down to earth a bit — he carried a .387 mark in his first year and .349 in his second — he seems a solid bet to deliver at least average offensive work for the foreseeable future. And there’s perhaps room to grow still in the power department after showing some strides, which was especially promising given that it occurred along with the step forward in his plate discipline.

Though Herrera was less productive in the second half — his power and K/BB numbers dipped — the total package is quite appealing. That made this a rather easy deal to make for the Phillies, an organization with massive untapped spending capacity in the future. Even in a true downside scenario, there’s little chance that Herrera’s contract (which is worth only $6.1MM on an average basis annually) will significantly harm the team’s ability to add major league talent.

While a team in the Phillies’ situation doesn’t need to strike early to lock up talent, as the organization can afford to do so later, that doesn’t mean that such a move can’t yield huge dividends. Indeed, as the pre-2015 Adam Eaton extension shows — particularly in light of his recent trade to the Nationals — it’s possible to add quite a bit of value to player control rights by buying out arb years and picking up some options. The Herrera pact is structured identically (five guaranteed years plus two options), though his guarantee handily beats the $23.5MM that Eaton received. Of course, it also fell well shy of the $50MM+ promised to 2+ players such as Matt Carpenter and Andrew McCutchen.

That’s certainly not to say that the deal isn’t a fair one from Herrera’s perspective. He was not a major bonus recipient as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela — various internet reports suggest he was inked for a modest $160K — and had only earned at (and then just over) the MLB minimum in each of the last two seasons. While his current trajectory suggests there would’ve been big earnings to come, none of that was guaranteed, and Herrera’s skillset would not have been particularly lucrative in the arbitration process.

It remains to be seen whether Philadelphia will move to negotiate with any of its other younger assets, though none are quite as established as Herrera. Third baseman Maikel Franco is the other most likely candidate, perhaps, though he may have already secured his downside protection by striking a deal with Fantex. Pitchers such as Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vince Velasquez could conceivably draw consideration as well, though there’s no rush in any of their cases and the club may allow things to play out before reaching any decisions. Looking further down the line, top talent J.P. Crawford and others could eventually be candidates for long-term deals — even, perhaps, before or just after they reach the majors — though we’ve heard nothing to suggest that any such aggressive moves are in the works.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outfield Notes: Fowler, Dyson, Soler, Herrera, Revere

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The latest in outfielder rumors…

  • The Blue Jays have offered Dexter Fowler a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  This falls short of the $18MM in average annual value that Fowler and his representatives are seeking, though it isn’t such an insurmountable gap that it would rule the Jays out of the running for the free agent outfielder.  The Cardinals continue to be interested in Fowler, Heyman notes, while the Giants and Nationals have also been linked to him in past reports and several other teams are speculative matches for Fowler in all three outfield positions.
  • Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson is another Cardinals target, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter).  Dyson has the benefit of coming at a much lower financial or trade cost than Fowler or Royals teammate Lorenzo Cain, plus he would be a good fit for a St. Louis team that has defensive upgrades as a stated offseason goal.
  • The Royals like Jorge Soler, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine tweets.  Rated as one of the game’s best prospects just two years ago, Soler has shown only a few glimpses of his potential at the MLB level and doesn’t have a clear path to regular playing time within the very crowded Cubs outfield.  The Cubs shopped Soler last offseason, and Levine speculates that a deal could be worked out involving K.C. closer Wade Davis, as Chicago is one of several teams interested in Davis.
  • There is some speculation that the Phillies would be open to trading Odubel Herrera, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets.  It would surely take quite a bit to make a deal happen, as Herrera has gone from Rule 5 pick to an everyday contributor for Philadelphia who has hit .291/.353/.419 and 23 homers over his two big league seasons.
  • With the Angels looking for a fourth outfielder who preferably hits from the left side of the plate, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register speculates that Ben Revere could be a good fit.  Revere had a brutal 2016 season and was non-tendered by the Nationals, but Fletcher notes that he has been an Angels target in the past and could be a potential bounce-back candidate.

Matt Klentak Discusses The Phillies’ Future

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At 65-82, the Phillies’ season may not stand out as a as one that many fans would consider a significant step forward. That Philadelphia is in the midst of a significant rebuild was a widely known fact entering the year, and few expected a major improvement in the standings this season. However, Phillies general manager Matt Klentak, hired to that post just last year, spoke to reporters (including Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com) before yesterday’s game to explain that the organization feels that there was plenty of progress made in 2016.

Among the players to draw praise from Klentak were catcher Cameron Rupp, first baseman Tommy Joseph, second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Freddy Galvis. While Klentak acknowledged that players like Galvis and Joseph (and really, most of the team) need to continue to work on developing their approach at the plate in order to work counts and boost on-base percentage at an individual and at a team level, he also noted the unexpected pop from each player — Joseph due to his status as a non-roster player entering the season and Galvis due to a lack of track record of power — has been a boon for the Phillies.

“Really for any position, but especially for a shortstop, to be approaching 20 homers in a season is pretty impressive,” said Klentak shortly after praising Galvis as “one of the most reliable, dependable shortstops in the league” from a defensive standpoint. While he didn’t directly state the fact, Klentak suggested that he’s cognizant of the fact that Galvis has never walked much and may never do so, explaining that lineups can contain such players as long as it’s not a trait from top to bottom. “The answer to that question may depend on what the rest of the lineup is doing,” the GM responded when asked if Galvis’ defense and power outweighed his .270 OBP.

Galvis’ future standing with the club, of course, has a direct impact on the team’s plans for top prospect J.P. Crawford — the former No. 16 overall draft pick that has risen to become one of the game’s consensus top 10 prospects. While Crawford is viewed as a potential franchise cornerstone at the position, Klentak didn’t shy away from stating that Galvis performed well enough in 2016 that, “Right now … he’s our shortstop.”

The first-year GM pointed to the fact that Crawford still has work to do to develop in the minors, even though he impressed as one of the youngest players at both the Double-A level and Triple-A level in 2016. “Even a 21-year-old at Double-A but certainly Triple-A is aggressive,” said Klentak. “I think he’s proven at both levels that he still has the ability to control the strike zone as well as anybody in our organization and probably the best in Minor League Baseball. I think his defense has taken a step forward. He’s still 21 years old. He still needs to get stronger. He still has some things he needs to work on.”

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