The Surprising Rock Of The Marlins’ Rotation
At last year’s trade deadline, the Marlins and Padres made a trade that largely flew under the radar at the time but is now proving to be fairly significant. The Fish sent Garrett Cooper and minor league pitcher Sean Reynolds to the Friars for left-hander Ryan Weathers.
Trades of star players like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer stole the headlines at the time, while other notable players like Paul Sewald, Jeimer Candelario and Mark Canha also changed teams. Even within Miami, the acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell garnered far more attention than the Weathers deal, and that was fairly understandable back then. Burger and Bell immediately joined the big league club and helped them reach the playoffs, their first full-season postseason appearance in 20 years.
Cooper has been a decent hitter at times but has also been frequently hurt and was an impending free agent at the time. Reynolds was a 25-year-old who had only recently converted to pitching after spending his earlier professional seasons as a first baseman and outfielder.
Weathers had been a big name a few years prior. The former No. 7 overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 84 prospect in the league going into 2021, but Weathers hadn’t been impressing prior to the deal. He had thrown 143 big league innings for the Padres before becoming a Marlin, allowing 5.73 earned runs per nine frames.
Even in the minors, Weathers wasn’t exactly mowing opponents down. He had a 6.73 ERA in 123 innings for Triple-A El Paso in 2022. That club plays in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but Weathers had subpar strikeout and walk rates of 15.6% and 10.1%. With El Paso in 2023, he lowered his ERA to 4.20 and struck out 29.2% of batters faced but was still giving out walks at an ugly 13.5% rate. The Padres called him up for 44 2/3 innings in the majors last year, but he had a 6.25 ERA in that time, striking out just 14.8% of opponents. The fact that the Padres were willing to let him go for a pretty limited package suggests that they considered his stock way down relative to when he was a top-10 pick and top-100 prospect.
Weathers was largely an afterthought coming into this year. Even with Sandy Alcántara undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Miami’s rotation mix projected to include Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers. Reliever A.J. Puk was going to be stretched out, giving the club another potential starter. Since Weathers still has an option year left, it seemed like he would have to start 2024 in the minors and earn his way into a big league job.
That’s not the way things have played out thus far. Garrett, Cabrera and Pérez all started the season on the injured list due to injuries, with Pérez ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Luzardo and Puk eventually hit the IL during the season, with the latter moved back to a relief role when the starting experiment failed. Meyer made three good starts but was optioned to the minors so the club could monitor his workload as he ramps back up from 2022 Tommy John surgery.
Amid all of that, Weathers has been the club’s best and most consistent starter this year. He has taken the ball 12 times and logged 68 2/3 innings, while no one else has topped 57. On top of the quantity, Weathers has also provided quality with a 3.41 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate is close to average, but his 6.9% walk rate is strong and his 51.5% ground ball rate is very good.
Manager Skip Schumaker recently appeared on MLB Network Radio and discussed the breakout from Weathers (X link, with audio). The skipper talked about how he had seen Weathers up close earlier in his career, as Schumaker was employed by the Padres through the 2021 season. Schumaker spoke about how Weathers managed to rise to the majors quickly due to his fastball but that hitters started to adjust. That prompted Weathers to spend the most recent offseason working to improve the other pitches in his arsenal, which seems to be paying off so far this year.
“He bought a TrackMan and different things and created kind of his own pitching lab back home,” Schumaker said, “and figured out how to spin the ball better and really manipulate the changeup into a way where he can throw it for strikes and to throw it strike-to-ball when he needed as well to get swing-and-miss.”
Weathers threw his four-seam fastball more than 50% of the time in each of his first three big league seasons, according to Statcast, but that number is down 40.2% in 2024. He’s going to the changeup 26.1% of the time but also throwing a sweeper at a 20.4% rate, a sinker at a 12.2% clip and a smattering of sliders as well. Opponents are hitting .174 against the changeup with a .349 slugging percentage, while those numbers are just .132 and .211 against the sweeper. The changeup has a 40.1% whiff rate and 36.8% hard hit rate, with the sweeper getting whiffs on 55.2% of swings and hit hard (95 mph or greater) just 11.8% of the time hitters make contact.
This is still a small sample size of just 12 starts, but Weathers was previously a touted prospect and has made a concerted effort to evolve. Since he charged so quickly to the majors, his struggles occurred at an age when many pitchers are still in college or climbing the minor league ladder. He’s still only 24 years old despite this technically being his fourth season in the majors.
Perhaps the Marlins have found a solid piece for their rotation from that small trade last year, which would be significant for them. Weathers came into this season with one year and 66 days of major league service time. That means he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and can be controlled through 2028.
Though they once seemed to be overloaded with starting pitching options, the group has been thinned out recently. They traded Pablo López and Jake Eder in recent years. Alcantara and Pere had Tommy John surgery this year. Well-regarded prospect Dax Fulton had a UCL repair (not a full Tommy John surgery) last summer and has yet to pitch this season. Sixto Sanchez has been consistently hobbled by shoulder injuries. And, Miami’s poor performance this year could lead to further selling, with Luzardo and Rogers speculative possibilities.
Even if those arms do end up being traded — Luzardo, in particular, seems likely — it’s possible to imagine the Marlins having a strong rotation consisting of Weathers, Alcántara, Pérez, Meyer, Cabrera and Garrett by late 2025, with all of those names controllable through at least 2027. Trades of Luzardo and others on the roster could bring in further rotation candidates as well. Plans rarely go that smoothly, as injuries and changes in performance will undoubtedly occur, but the continued evolution of Weathers is a huge bright spot during a season that’s otherwise been bleak in Miami.
Orioles Select Cade Povich
June 6: Baltimore has now formally selected Povich’s contract from Triple-A Norfolk, per a team announcement. Left-hander Nick Vespi was optioned to Norfolk in a corresponding 26-man roster move. The Orioles’ 40-man roster is now at capacity.
June 5: The Orioles are calling up pitching prospect Cade Povich to start tomorrow’s series finale with the Blue Jays, manager Brandon Hyde told the team’s beat (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported this morning (on X) that Povich was meeting the team in Toronto, initially as a member of the taxi squad.
It’s the first call for the 6’3″ left-hander. Povich, a University of Nebraska product, was a third-round pick of the Twins in 2021. He was in High-A in the Minnesota organization when the O’s acquired him at the ’22 deadline. Baltimore sent closer Jorge López, then in the midst of an All-Star season, to the Twin Cities for Yennier Cano, Povich, and two other minor league pitchers.
The move was an unpopular one among the clubhouse and with a large portion of the fanbase considering the O’s were on the fringe of playoff contention. Yet it has become an unquestioned win for Baltimore, as Cano almost immediately blossomed into one of the best relievers in the game. Povich, now 24, is one of the more talented pitchers in their system.
Povich split last season between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, logging 126 2/3 innings across 28 starts. A cumulative 5.04 earned run average isn’t particularly impressive, but Povich was one of the better strikeout pitchers in the minors. He fanned 171 hitters, behind only Drew Thorpe and Tobias Myers among all minor league pitchers. While that’s partially a reflection of Povich’s durability, his 31.1% strikeout rate was also well above average.
That has continued over 11 starts with Norfolk in 2024, this time leading to better run prevention. Povich has punched out 32.5% of batters faced en route to a 3.18 ERA in 56 2/3 innings. His 9.1% walk rate is a little higher than ideal for a starting pitcher, but it’s an encouraging overall showing just the same.
Povich isn’t the same caliber of prospect as Baltimore’s most touted position players (e.g. Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo). He’s generally viewed by evaluators as a potentially solid starting pitcher. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each slotted him in the back half of the O’s top 10 prospects over the offseason.
Law praised Povich’s changeup and curveball, while BA lauds the arm-side run on his fastball. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in the system and as the sport’s #92 prospect overall, with praise for the deception in his delivery and his collection of offspeed pitches. Povich will need to continue improving his strike-throwing, but there’s broad agreement that he has the repertoire to be a big league starter.
He steps into a rotation that lost John Means and swingman Tyler Wells to elbow surgery last week. Baltimore is operating with a starting five of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez. Righty Dean Kremer is shelved by a triceps strain but could return this month. It’s a strong top three, but the rotation depth is a relative question mark on a very good team that is off to a 39-21 start. The O’s will likely be linked to starting pitchers in trade rumors over the next two months.
Povich will look to make a good initial impression as the front office evaluates their back-end starters before the deadline. He is not on the 40-man roster, but the O’s already have an opening. They’re carrying the maximum 13 pitchers on the active roster, so they will need to send out another pitcher tomorrow.
The Opener: All-Star Voting, Povich, White Sox
As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. All-Star Voting begins:
The first phase of MLB’s All-Star fan voting opened yesterday. Phase one of voting will continue until June 27 at 11am CT. Fans are allowed to vote five times per day and, as per usual, vote for one infielder at each position per league, one DH per league, and three outfielders per league. Much like last year, the player who receives the most votes overall in each league will be automatically assured a starting spot at their position on their league’s All-Star roster, while the top two infielders at each position per league, top two DHs per league, and top six outfielders per league will all move on to the second phase of voting, which runs from June 30 to July 3. You can follow this link to cast a ballot for yourself.
2. Povich to debut:
The Orioles are promoting top pitching prospect Cade Povich for his major league debut later today, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters last night. Povich is not yet on the club’s 40-man roster, but a corresponding move won’t be necessary as Baltimore has had space available since right-hander Thyago Vieira was designated for assignment earlier this week.
Selected by the Twins in the third round of the 2021 draft, Povich came over to the Orioles alongside Yennier Cano in the trade that sent Jorge Lopez to Minnesota. His first full season in Baltimore was a difficult one (5.04 ERA in 126 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A), but he’s enjoyed plenty of success at Triple-A in 2024. In 56 2/3 innings, Povich has posted a 3.18 ERA with a fantastic 32.5% strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate from last year’s 12% to a more manageable 9.1%. Povich, who recently landed 99th on Baseball America’s updated top-100 prospect list, will take the mound opposite Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi (3.66 ERA) at 1:07pm local time.
3. White Sox’ historic skid continues:
It’s hardly a surprise that the 2024 campaign has been a brutal one for the White Sox after the club lost 101 games last year, made only token additions to the club’s roster during the offseason, and traded ace Dylan Cease to the Padres just before Opening Day. Even when considering those factors, however, the season has been a tough one for fans on the south side of Chicago. The club enters play today with a brutal 15-47 record, “good” for a whopping 26 games back in the AL Central. They’ve reached this low point as a result of an ongoing streak of 13 consecutive losses that includes series sweeps at the hands of the Cubs, Brewers, Blue Jays, and Orioles.
As noted by MLB.com’s Scott Merkin last night, those 13 consecutive losses tie a record from a century ago for the longest losing streak in franchise history. The White Sox will look to avoid breaking that record at 7:10pm local time this evening, when the visiting Red Sox come to town. That task won’t be easy for the club as they’re scheduled to face right-hander Tanner Houck (1.85 ERA), who has been one of the league’s most effective pitchers thus far. One silver lining for Chicago is the recent return of star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. who collected two hits (including a home run) against the Cubs in his first game back from the injured list on Tuesday.
MLBTR Podcast: Gambling Scandal, The State Of The Blue Jays And The Orioles’ Rotation Depth
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Tucupita Marcano of the Padres betting on baseball while with the Pirates (1:05)
- The Blue Jays are struggling but Ross Atkins says trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette doesn’t make sense (7:50)
- The Orioles lost John Means and Tyler Wells to surgery but also called up Connor Norby (17:45)
- While recording, we get the news of Marcano’s lifetime ban and find out the identities of the other players who were suspended (23:45)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Since the Brewers and Willy Adames didn’t reach an extension, is there any chance the Brewers consider trading him this summer? (24:25)
- It seems like there are more season-ending injuries, but is there any data to support that? If there is, is MLB taking a look at mitigating? (28:25)
- What will be the financial components of the deadline? Are there any teams that might have a surprising amount of payroll room? (33:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Ángel Hernández Retires, Ronald Acuña Jr. Out For The Season And Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting – listen here
- The Likelihood Of A Juan Soto Extension, What’s In Store For Pete Alonso, And Corbin Carroll’s Struggles – listen here
- Paul Skenes, The Prospect Hype Machine, Willson Contreras And Rising Catcher’s Interference Rates – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Rangers Notes: Carter, Mahle, Bradford, Foscue
The Rangers placed Evan Carter on the injured list last week, initially announcing the issue as back tightness. Manager Bruce Bochy provided more specifics yesterday, telling reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com) that the rookie left fielder is dealing with a stress reaction. Texas expects Carter to miss upwards of a month.
It has been a challenging first full MLB season for Carter. The 21-year-old top prospect debuted late in 2023 and immediately cemented himself as a key piece of the franchise’s first World Series run. Carter hit .300/.417/.500 in 17 postseason games, making him a popular Rookie of the Year pick in 2024. He has had a much tougher go through this season’s first couple months, running a .188/.272/.361 line with a 26.5% strikeout rate over 162 plate appearances.
Carter admitted he played through back discomfort for a couple weeks before the IL placement. That certainly could’ve played a role in his middling offense. He remains an integral piece of the Rangers’ plans for this season and beyond, but he’ll be down for a few weeks. Wyatt Langford has stepped into left field, opening some DH at-bats for Robbie Grossman and Ezequiel Duran.
Texas received better news on a few other injured players this week. Offseason signee Tyler Mahle threw to hitters on Wednesday for the first time in his recovery from Tommy John surgery (link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Mahle is ticketed for three more live sessions before he could head on a minor league rehab stint. If all goes smoothly, he should be on track for his Rangers debut a couple weeks after the All-Star Break.
Mahle is around 13 months removed from the elbow procedure that ended his tenure with the Twins. The right-hander was barely able to pitch for Minnesota. He was a mid-rotation starter with the Reds before that, pitching 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball while striking out more than 27% of opponents three years ago. The Rangers guaranteed him $22MM on a backloaded two-year deal in December.
Texas has a full rotation on the injured list. Jon Gray has had a fairly brief stint related to a groin strain, but the other four pitchers have faced long recovery timelines. Mahle, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are still rehabbing from 2023 surgeries. Cody Bradford has been out since mid-April with a stress fracture in his rib. The southpaw told reporters that he has progressed to throwing from 120 feet on flat ground (X link via Landry). Bradford opened the season as the fifth starter and turned in a 1.40 ERA over 19 1/3 innings in three appearances before the injury.
On the position player side, Texas has been without rookie infielder Justin Foscue for nearly the entire season. The Rangers called up the former first-round draftee on April 2. He took two plate appearances before sustaining a left oblique strain that pushed him to the 60-day injured list. Foscue will be eligible for reinstatement in the next few days and seems to be on track for a return. Texas assigned him to the Arizona complex league to begin a rehab assignment tonight. The Rangers might not have an immediate MLB roster spot for Foscue, as Josh Smith has played very well at third base while Josh Jung has been on the shelf.
Royals Sign Kevin Padlo To Minor League Deal
The Royals signed Kevin Padlo to a minor league contract. The deal was announced by Kansas City’s Double-A team in Northwest Arkansas, where the infielder will report in his new organization.
It’s a bit of a step down for Padlo, who had been in Triple-A after signing an offseason minor league deal with the Dodgers. Los Angeles released him last week following a middling .216/.340/.380 start to the season. The 27-year-old has had better Triple-A numbers in prior years. He went into 2024 with a career .251/.348/.461 line at the level.
Padlo has played in the majors for five different teams over parts of three seasons. His high in games played for any individual team is nine; he has appeared in 26 contests overall. He’s a .111/.158/.167 hitter in an exceedingly small sample of 57 MLB plate appearances. Padlo has shown a patient approach and decent raw power in the minors, though that’s always come with a fair number of strikeouts. He has fanned in 26.6% of his more than 1500 Triple-A plate appearances.
Rockies Planning To Place Kris Bryant On Injured List
The Rockies expect to send Kris Bryant back to the 10-day injured list, Bud Black told reporters after today’s loss to the Reds (video relayed on X by Patrick Lyons). The Colorado manager said Bryant’s rib soreness “didn’t really respond to treatment,” necessitating the IL trip. Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes that first baseman Michael Toglia is likely to be recalled in a corresponding move.
It’ll be Bryant’s second IL stint of 2024 and the seventh of the first two and a half seasons on his $182MM free agent deal. The former MVP was plagued by left foot injuries in 2022-23. He lost a month of this year to a lower back strain. This most recent injury occurred over the weekend as he caught a foul ball up against the wall.
Around the injury absences, Bryant has struggled to make an impact. He’s hitting .186/.307/.279 in 101 plate appearances this year. He has appeared in 146 games and tallied 617 trips to the plate in a Rockies uniform. In what essentially amounts to one full season’s worth of games, he has a .247/.331/.385 line in MLB’s most favorable hitter’s park. Bryant spent most of his defensive work in the corner outfield between 2022-23. The Rockies moved him primarily to first base this season in an effort to keep him healthy.
Elehuris Montero has drawn into the lineup at first base for the past few games. He and Toglia are set to split the position while Bryant is out of action. Montero hasn’t provided any kind of impact offensively, struggling to a .213/.279/.303 slash over 197 plate appearances.
The Rox have kept him on the MLB roster because he’s out of options, meaning they’d need to expose him to waivers before they could send him back to Triple-A. They have the leeway to continue giving Montero at-bats that a more competitive team wouldn’t be able to offer, but it stands to reason they’ll need to see more out of the 25-year-old fairly soon if they’re going to carry him all year.
White Sox, Michael Chavis Agree To Minor League Deal
The White Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder Michael Chavis, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). The CAA client opted out of a non-roster deal with the Mariners over the weekend.
Brian Anderson, who opted out of a contract with Seattle at the same time, found an immediate MLB opportunity with the Braves. Chavis will need to play his way back to the majors, though a rebuilding Sox team could afford him that chance. Chicago hasn’t gotten much out of Andrew Vaughn, Nicky Lopez or Lenyn Sosa throughout the infield. Chavis wouldn’t be an option to step in at shortstop if the Sox trade Paul DeJong, but he can play any of the other infield positions.
Chavis will try to build off a solid start to his year in Triple-A. Over 46 games with the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma, he hit 290/.366/.485 with seven homers. That’s slightly better than average production in the Pacific Coast League. Chavis now touts an impressive .276/.347/.528 batting line over 521 career plate appearances at the top minor league level.
As one would expect, he hasn’t managed the same caliber of performance against big league pitching. A former first-round pick of the Red Sox, Chavis has taken nearly 1200 MLB plate appearances between Boston, Pittsburgh and Washington. He’s a career .238/.283/.401 hitter. While he has hit 43 homers with roughly average power numbers, a modest 5.4% walk rate and a strikeout percentage pushing 32% have kept his on-base percentage down. He appeared in 48 games for the Nats last year as a sparsely-used depth infielder.
Danny Jansen Is Pulling Away From The Rest Of Next Winter’s Catching Class
Last offseason's free agent catching class was very weak. Only three players received a multi-year deal, all of which checked in at two years. Mitch Garver is more of a designated hitter, while Tom Murphy and Victor Caratini are backups. There wasn't a top target for teams looking to the open market for a #1 option.
Next winter's group looks similarly light, with one exception. It's comprised mostly by players in their mid-30s who are generally better suited for backup roles. Yet unlike last winter, there's one player emerging as the clear top of the class. Danny Jansen has been a very good player for the last three years. He has taken things up another level through this season's first couple months. If he can stay healthy, he'll be well-positioned for the top free agent catching contract since Willson Contreras topped $87MM two years ago.
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JP Sears Generating Trade Interest
The Athletics are getting plenty of trade interest in left-hander JP Sears, according to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN, though Passan adds that the A’s are unlikely to move him. It’s a similar situation with right-hander Mason Miller, as Passan relays that the A’s are willing to listen to offers but don’t appear likely to make a trade. That tracks with previous reporting on Miller, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said about a month ago that the A’s were willing to listen but had a massive asking price.
Sears came over to the A’s as part of the 2022 deadline deal that sent Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees. Since then, Sears has been the most reliable and consistent pitcher on the Oakland staff as other arms have either been hurt or underperformed. He made 32 starts last year and tossed 172 1/3 innings, leading the club in both of those categories by a decent margin. Ken Waldichuk was second in both columns with 22 starts and 141 innings.
Here in 2024, he’s been the rock of the rotation yet again. The A’s currently have Waldichuk, Paul Blackburn, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood all on the injured list. Sears is once again leading the staff with 12 starts and 67 1/3 innings pitched.
While the A’s surely appreciate that quantity of work, the quality has been more decent than it has been outstanding. Sears had a 4.54 earned run average last year along with a 21.9% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate, with all those numbers coming in fairly close to average.
Sears has dropped his ERA to 4.01 here in 2024 but that may be more due to luck than anything else. His 6.9% walk rate is a slight improvement over last year but his 16.3% strikeout rate is a significant drop. His batting average on balls in play is .239, which is well below the .278 mark he had last year and this season’s league-wide average of .286. His 35.6% ground ball rate is below average as well. His average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate are all in the 32nd percentile or worse among qualified pitchers, according to Statcast.
Even if a bit of regression is coming, he could still serve as a solid innings eater with good control. His 4.32 FIP and 4.75 SIERA on the year aren’t as nice as his ERA but aren’t disastrous either. That can have value to an Oakland club cycling through struggling pitching prospects and injured veterans.
Whether it will be valued enough by another club to get Sears away from the A’s remains to be seen, as they should be in no real rush to move him. He came into this season with one year and 81 days of service time. That means he won’t even qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If they don’t find any particularly enticing offers now, they can simply keep him around as part of the rotation core as they gradually try to emerge from this rebuilding process, which seems to be the most likely scenario at this point.
But the case for making him available could be his age. Sears was sort of a late bloomer, not reaching the big leagues until his age-26 season. Though the A’s can theoretically control him for years to come, he’s now 28 years old and will likely be in his early 30s by the time the club is competitive again. Perhaps that will compel them to consider pulling the trigger on a deal while his value is at its highest. With pitchers liable to suffer significant injuries at any time, there’s also a case for the club to proactively strike a deal before that happens to Sears.
Whether anything can come together will likely depend on the offers that are coming towards Oakland. Since Sears is cheap and controllable and fairly reliable, they will likely need a decent return to get a deal done. As mentioned, Sears is more a reliable mid- or back-of-rotation guy than an ace, but that could hold appeal to clubs with so many pitching injuries around the league.