Pirates Notes: Rotation, Contreras
Paul Skenes‘ promotion to the Pirates’ rotation brought came with plenty of fanfare, but beyond the simple arrival of perhaps the sport’s top pitching prospect, there are also broader implications for his addition to the roster. General manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton said this week that the Bucs will move to a six-man rotation now that Skenes is in the big leagues (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). With three young arms — Skenes, Jared Jones, Quinn Priester — helping to comprise the team’s starting staff, the goal of the six-man group will be to manage that trio’s workload and afford some extra rest.
“Big picture, we’re tracking volume and work volume for every pitcher on the team, no matter who they are,” Cherington told the Pirates beat over the weekend. He went on to add that while he understands Skenes’ workload management will get more attention because of his status as a recent No. 1 overall pick and top-10 prospect in the sport, the Pirates “look at it for every pitcher and it’s a part of the decision-making in terms of again, trying to win a game and also what happens after the game and getting them ready for the next start.”
Skenes joins a staff also including Jones, Priester, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Bailey Falter. Veteran lefty Marco Gonzales, currently out with a forearm strain, could factor in once healthy as well — though there’s no current timetable for his return. He’s still in the midst of a weekslong shutdown, though surgery was not a consideration as of late April.
Just how long the Buccos will stick to a six-person staff isn’t presently known. Health will be a prominent factor, as an injury anywhere in the current sextet could simply prompt a move to a more traditional five-man arrangement. The schedule also plays a role. Shelton pointed to a pair of days off in four-day span late this month that could throw a wrench into the six-man plan, noting that the team will “re-evaluate” at that point.
That certainly doesn’t sound like the six-man pivot will be permanent, but it’s of some note that the Pirates are comfortable and perhaps even prefer to use such an alignment when navigating lengthy stretches with little to no time off. Pirates fans will want to check out Gorman’s piece for more extensive quotes from both Cherington and Shelton, as well as some of the pitchers who are in the group. Perez, for instance, explained his rationale for preferring a more conventional five-man setup, while Falter noted that he “loves” the extra day of rest and provided his own explanation.
The other domino effect of Skenes’ big league arrival was the likely departure of a pitcher who once represented the same type of “future building-block” hope that Skenes does now. Certainly, Roansy Contreras was never regarded as well as Skenes is at the moment, but he was the headliner of the trade that sent righty Jameson Taillon to the Yankees.
Contreras was considered one of the game’s 100 best prospects at the time and held his own quite nicely through his first season-plus. In 2021-22, he gave the Bucs 98 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with slightly worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates — all before celebrating his 23rd birthday. The makings of a solid mid-rotation arm looked to be there.
However, Contreras has fallen into a swift decline, losing velocity and watching his strikeout rate drop despite a move to short relief. He’s been tagged for a 6.17 ERA since Opening Day 2023, fanning just under 19% of opponents against a rough 10.6% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options. The Pirates bit the bullet and designated him for assignment to open a 40-man spot for Skenes.
Cherington discussed the difficult decision to do so in an interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Cherington said following the DFA that the Pirates still believe Contreras can be “a good big leaguer.” The Pirates gave Contreras as much time as they felt they could, however, and Cherington noted that the “alternative moves we could have made to open up that spot were not going to be best for the team” in the short-term.
That’s a notable departure from the type of rebuilding mindset that has been prominent throughout much of Cherington’s tenure. He was hired following the dismissal of longtime GM Neal Huntington as the Pirates looked to a new voice to rebuild the organization from the ground up.
The Bucs still aren’t a division powerhouse by any means, but they’re five and a half games out in the Central and have the makings of an interesting rotation with Skenes, Jones, Keller and Priester all having risen through the system. Bats like Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes offer some optimism. Ownership may not have given the green light to spend much in the past couple offseasons — Reynolds’ extension notwithstanding — but it seems clear the Pirates are focusing on the here-and-now far more than in the past. It’s easy to argue that an earlier call to the big leagues for Skenes would’ve aligned more with that mentality, but on the same token it’s also fair to point out that the Bucs have typically waited until a player would be past Super Two status before calling up their top prospects. That definitely is not the case with Skenes.
Mackey suggests that another club is likely to trade for Contreras or at least claim him off waivers. I’m inclined to agree. A change of scenery wouldn’t surprise many and seems the likeliest outcome. That, however, also leaves the Bucs with little to show for their trade of Taillon. Mackey runs through several trades that have panned out that way, pointing out that while trades of Joe Musgrove and Jose Quintana have worked out reasonably well (I’d add Adam Frazier, who netted Jack Suwinski), Pittsburgh has come up empty on several notable swaps (Taillon, Starling Marte, Clay Holmes, Josh Bell).
For a front office with perennial payroll restrictions from ownership, converting on trades of big leaguers is exponentially more important. The Pirates surely hope that they won’t be in a position to be trading players away this summer, but if they are, they’ll need to improve over their recent track record.
Richard Bleier Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Nationals
Left-hander Richard Bleier has opted out of his minor league deal with the Nationals, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. He’ll head to the open market and will be free to pursue opportunities with all 30 clubs.
Bleier, 37, signed a minor league deal with the Nationals in February. He joined them in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and posted 1.69 earned run average over 10 2/3 innings. He didn’t get a roster spot out of camp and reported to Triple-A Rochester.
He threw 16 2/3 innings for that club with a 4.32 ERA. He only struck out 14.7% of batters faced but Bleier has always been a low-strikeout guy who succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding free passes. He walked just 2.9% of batters faced for the Red Wings and got grounders on 51.8% of balls in play.
Those numbers are all roughly in line with his career work in the majors as a journeyman grounder specialist. He has 330 1/3 innings of big league experience with the Yankees, Orioles, Marlins and Red Sox. Over that time, he has a 3.27 ERA, 13.6% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 60.9% ground ball rate.
The Nationals have selected the contracts of other veterans to their bullpen this year, such as Derek Law, Jacob Barnes and Matt Barnes. It seems that Bleier didn’t expect to be next in line, so he will look for opportunities elsewhere. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand and many clubs around the league are dealing with mounting injuries, which could open opportunities for Bleier elsewhere.
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Severino, Blue Jays, James Wood
Welcome to another edition of my subscriber mailbag! If you're wondering where this paywall thing came from, please read about that here. Today's mailbag gets into Luis Severino's solid start, the future of the Blue Jays, the trajectory of Nationals prospect James Wood, and assessing free agent mega-contracts.
Dmitry asks:
I noticed Luis Severino is doing much better this year. GB rates ticked up, along with his barrels % and overall FB runs value. What's different this year? Did the Mets unlock something Matt Blake couldn't? Better health? Just needed a change of scenery?
Severino has reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher. His 56% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among all qualified starters. In a sense it's good that he's done so, because as with last year's disaster season, his strikeout and walk rates have remained unimpressive. I usually start by looking at a pitcher's K-BB%, and Severino's 11.0% mark is pretty bad and basically the same as it was when he posted a 6.65 ERA last year.
Most of Severino's success came in 2017-18, when he put up 11 WAR across 384 2/3 innings for the Yankees. He missed almost all of 2019 due to a shoulder/lat injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in February 2020. His TJ recovery included a setback along the way due to a shoulder injury. Severino's layoff between MLB games was just shy of two years.
Severino's 2022 season gave hope that he could return to his pre-Tommy John form. Most of his velocity returned, and even though he missed more than two months due to another lat strain, his strikeout and walk rates were reminiscent of the Severino of old over a 102 inning span. It was enough to convince the Yankees to pick up his $15MM club option for 2023. Severino's 2023 season was so bad that he remarked last summer,"Right now, I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game, no doubt about it."
As you might expect, Severino tinkered with his repertoire heading into 2024. According to SNY's Andy Martino, Severino went to Driveline. Martino wrote, "There, he split his hard slider into a cutter and a sweeper. Neither was as powerful as his old slider, but the two offerings combined to show hitters different speeds and different looks." Martino added, "Severino has added ride to his velocity, creating a more powerful fastball. Played off his new cutter/sweeper mix, which features variances in speed, and a changeup and sinker that helps him get ground balls, and Severino looks like a more complete pitcher." Martino provided a third reason as well, suggesting that Severino tipped his pitches often as a Yankee and has cleaned that up with the Mets.
Indeed, Severino has started using a sinker often. He's using it 16.7% of the time so far this year, according to Brooks Baseball. His career high for sinkers was 2.6% last year. He explained to Tim Britton of The Athletic, "Just to have that pitch in my pocket that can help me get a groundball here, get a double play, get out of an inning with one pitch instead of striking out two guys. I was just thinking about how I can be more productive and save more pitches." An open-mindedness toward sinkers, which have gone out of style in baseball, is a conscious choice for the Mets, which pitching coach Jeremy Hefner explains in Britton's article.
Severino has a 3.00 ERA as of this writing, and if he stays healthy and lands under 4.00 for the season, his one-year deal will have been a big success for Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns. There's probably too much emphasis on that 3.00 ERA through these first 45 innings, though. I think a pretty big correction is coming, because a portion of Severino's success comes from a .250 BABIP and 8.3% home run per flyball rate. He's a bit less interesting with a league average strikeout rate and subpar walk rate, even as one of the league's best groundballers. Severino's SIERA sits at 4.11, though Statcast's expected ERA is solid at 3.59. So he's not allowing a lot of hard contact and could be a 2-3 WAR type moving forward. What Severino is doing this year seems a bit like what Marcus Stroman did last year, but with more velocity.
I took a look at recent starting pitcher seasons with a K-BB% of 12 or below and a groundball rate of 50% or better. There is a survivorship bias, because if that combo isn't working for a pitcher, he'll be removed from the rotation. But this is a weird combination, especially for a pitcher who throws 96. Here are a few comps other than Stroman's 2023:
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments
The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ‘pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.
In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.
Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.
Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.
Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants
Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.
As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.
Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.
The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.
Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves
Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.
The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.
When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.
Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.
The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.
Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.
A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins
On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.
In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).
Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.
If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.
Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.
Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.
In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.
Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels
The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.
Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.
The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.
Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024 season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.
Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays
The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.
Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.
Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.
Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers
Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.
Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.
Rays Sign Tyler Zuber To Minor League Deal
The Rays have purchased the contract of right-hander Tyler Zuber from the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks, the Ducks announced yesterday. Zuber will head to Tampa Bay on a minor league contract and is headed to Triple-A Durham.
Zuber, who’ll turn 29 next month, signed a minor league pact with the Guardians in the offseason and spent spring training with them but struggled in his brief look in the Cleveland organization. He served up 10 runs on 10 hits and eight walks in 5 1/3 frames this spring and unsurprisingly didn’t land an Opening Day roster spot. He was released and went on to sign with the Ducks, hoping a strong showing would bring about just this type of opportunity with another club.
Brief as his time with the Ducks was, it’s not hard to see why Zuber’s performance piqued some interest. The former Royals righty pitched just 5 2/3 innings of Atlantic League ball but held opponents to one run on five hits and one walk. He faced a total of 22 opponents and set 10 of them down on strikes (45.4%).
Zuber previously pitched for the Royals in 2020-21, debuting during the pandemic-shortened season with 22 innings of 4.09 ERA ball. He posted a gaudy 30.3% strikeout rate that year but coupled it with an alarming 20.2% walk rate. Overall, he’s pitched 49 1/3 big league innings with a 5.29 ERA, a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 16.7% walk rate.
Command was never an issue for Zuber in the lower minors, however. His overall minor league ERA sits at a tidy 3.20, and he’s paired that with a terrific 31.3% strikeout rate and a solid 8.5% walk rate. Zuber began to battle pronounced control struggles during that 2020 debut, and his penchant for walks carried over into subsequent seasons.
It’s likely that injuries played a part in the abrupt erosion of Zuber’s command. He had shoulder injuries in both 2021 and 2022, missing the entire ’22 season as a result. He was with the D-backs’ Triple-A Reno affiliate in 2023 but still walked 11.1% of his opponents in 20 2/3 innings. Given his recent struggles to locate the ball, Zuber’s impressive command in the Atlantic League is all the more notable, but time will tell whether he can carry that over in his return to affiliated ball.
Cardinals Release Josh James
The Cardinals announced Tuesday that right-handed reliever Josh James has been given his unconditional release. The former Astros reliever had been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate in Memphis after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.
James hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2021. The 31-year-old spent the the majority of the 2022 season on the injured list before eventually undergoing flexor surgery that cost him the whole 2023 campaign. He made for an intriguing minor league flier, given some prior success in Houston, but James displayed calamitous command issues during his brief time with the Redbirds. In 7 2/3 innings this season, he’s been shelled for 17 earned runs (19.96 ERA) on 13 hits and 15 walks with only five strikeouts. James faced 51 hitters and walked 15 of them (29.4%).
Before encountering his forearm injury, James spent four seasons in the Houston bullpen as a hard-throwing middle reliever with lofty strikeout and walk totals. In 106 1/3 innings at the MLB level, James has fanned 34.3% of his opponents but also issued walks at a 13.2% clip — all en route to a 4.64 earned run average.
It’s possible he’ll get another look elsewhere, but a near-30% walk rate in Triple-A on the heels of such a lengthy injury layoff underscores that James is a project at this point. He’s quite a ways removed from the impressive 2.35 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate he turned in as a rookie with the 2018 Astros.
Cubs Designate Richard Lovelady For Assignment
The Cubs designated left-hander Richard Lovelady for assignment Tuesday, per a team announcement. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to righty Tyson Miller, whose previously reported trade from Seattle to Chicago is now official.
Lovelady, 28, signed a minor league pact with the Cubs back in January and was selected to the big league roster in late April. He’s tossed 5 2/3 innings out of Craig Counsell’s bullpen and been tagged for five runs on nine hits and a pair of walks with six strikeouts. That marks the fifth big league season in which the southpaw has appeared; Lovelady made his MLB debut with the 2019 Royals and pitched in K.C. from 2019-21, and he logged 23 1/3 innings with the A’s last season. Overall, in 70 2/3 big league innings, he carries a 5.48 ERA but with a far more encouraging 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 49.8% ground-ball rate.
That blend of strikeouts, walks and grounders, coupled with a strong Triple-A track record, has made Lovelady appealing to MLB teams over the past year despite a history of success in the majors. The Cubs are his fourth organization since Opening Day 2023. Lovelady has been picked up by the Braves in a small trade, claimed off waivers by the A’s, and quickly selected to the big leagues with the Cubs.
In parts of six Triple-A seasons, Lovelady has a 2.95 ERA with a sharp strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 26.6%, 6.8% and 50.7%, respectively. He’s not a power arm, but he has added more than a mile per hour to both his four-seamer and sinker since last year’s showing with Oakland. He sat at 91 mph with both pitches last year but averaged 92.8 mph on the four-seam and 92.5 mph on his two-seam during his brief showing with Chicago.
Lovelady does have a minor league option remaining, so any club that picks him up via trade or waiver claim could send him to Triple-A without first passing him through waivers themselves. He’ll be traded, claimed off waivers or assigned outright to Triple-A Iowa within the next week (if he clears waivers). He’s been outrighted previously in his career, so Lovelady would have the right to reject a minor league assignment from the Cubs if he does go unclaimed.
The Opener: Hoskins, Lowe, MLBTR Chat
As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Hoskins to undergo MRI:
Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins exited yesterday’s game against the Pirates in the second inning after tweaking his right hamstring. As noted by Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the slugger will undergo an MRI today to determine the severity of the issue. Even a brief absence for Hoskins would be a brutal blow for the Brewers, as the 31-year-old has been among their top power hitters since signing a two-year deal with the club this past offseason. In 38 games as a Brewer, Hoskins has slashed .233/.340/.474 with nine homers. Gary Sanchez and Jake Bauers could be among the club’s options to handle first base if Hoskins ends up requiring time off. Sanchez has of course been a catcher for the bulk of his career but has already made four appearances at first base this season.
2. Lowe to visit specialist:
Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe has been on the shelf for over a month now due to a grade 1 oblique strain. In recent days, he’s begun a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level with solid results to show for it, slashing .300/.462/1.000 in four games. However, manager Kevin Cash revealed yesterday that Lowe “felt something” in his oblique over the weekend and is expected to see a specialist today to determine next steps (X link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario have split time at the keystone in recent weeks while Lowe is unavailable.
3. MLBTR Chat today:
The 2024 season is now in full swing, and trade season has begun to get underway as the likes of Luis Arraez, Robbie Grossman and Luis Guillorme have already changed clubs. If you have questions regarding your favorite club’s start to the campaign, or perhaps questions that look ahead to this summer’s trade deadline and the 2024-25 offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a live chat with readers today at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after it is completed.
Cubs To Acquire Tyson Miller
The Cubs are acquiring reliever Tyson Miller from the Mariners for minor league infielder Jake Slaughter, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Seattle had designated Miller for assignment last week.
Miller returns to the organization that selected him in the fourth round of the 2016 draft. The Cal Baptist product reached the majors for a very brief stint during the 2020 season. The Cubs lost him on waivers to the Rangers the following year. That kicked off a nomadic stretch of his career that has seen Miller suit up for five teams without reaching even 15 innings for any of them.
The right-hander played for three teams last year. He bounced via waivers between the Brewers, Mets and Dodgers. Miller combined for 15 1/3 innings of eight-run ball and cleared waivers in September. He hit minor league free agency and inked a non-roster deal with Seattle going into 2024. The M’s called him up two weeks into the regular season.
Miller had a productive month in the Pacific Northwest. He threw 11 2/3 frames over nine appearances, allowing four earned runs. Miller punched out 12 against one walk with a solid 12.6% swinging strike percentage. It was a little surprising that Seattle nevertheless took him off the roster, although he’d been in a low-leverage role in a solid bullpen.
The Cubs have a shakier relief corps than the Mariners do. Chicago’s bullpen entered play Monday ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.58 earned run average. Their 23.4% strikeout rate is fine, but they’ve issued walks at a huge 11% clip. Chicago also has five relievers on the injured list at present. Yency Almonte landed on the shelf over the weekend, while Adbert Alzolay just went down with a forearm strain this evening.
Miller is out of options, so he’ll step right into the major league bullpen. The Cubs need to create a 40-man roster spot to finalize his acquisition and will need to make an active roster move once he reports to the team.
In return for a middle reliever who had been squeezed off the depth chart, Seattle adds an upper minors infielder who is out to a strong start. Slaughter, 27, has a .297/.392/.486 slash line over 130 plate appearances for Chicago’s top affiliate in Iowa. He has connected on five homers, stolen 10 bases in 11 tries, and drawn walks at a strong 11.5% clip. His 24.6% strikeout rate is slightly higher than average but around three percentage points lower than last year’s 27.5% mark.
Slaughter was an 18th-round pick out of LSU back in 2018. He has never drawn much prospect fanfare and has gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft twice. His numbers this season are strong enough that he has a chance to reach the majors in a reserve capacity this year, though. He would qualify for minor league free agency at the start of next offseason if Seattle doesn’t add him to the 40-man roster before then.