Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, Bloom, Payroll, Injuries
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to reporters at the club’s Winter Warm-up fan event today about a variety of topics, including the future of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in St. Louis. Beyond those discussions, Mozeliak also addressed his own future as the head of the club’s baseball operations department as noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.
When asked if he still intended to step back from running baseball operations in St. Louis by the end of his current contract with the club in 2025 as he indicated last winter, Mozeliak stood by those previous comments. “I would imagine that’s going to stay pretty true,” he told Jones and other reporters. “I don’t want to sit up here on January 13 and retire, but I think having a succession plan and uncoupling some of the things I’ve been involved in at such a high level…it’s probably reasonable to think that having a different voice at some point would make a lot of sense.”
As Jones notes, the comments from Mozeliak serve to highlight the club’s recent hiring of former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom in an advisory role. While the hire was only announced earlier this week, Mozeliak indicated today that Bloom has been advising the several months and that the club’s acquisitions this offseason have been “bounce(d) off” the club’s new hire. Mozeliak went as far as to note that Bloom has factored into discussions with chairman Bill DeWitt III regarding the future of the baseball operations department following Mozeliak’s eventual move away from leading the club, though he went on to note GM Mike Girsch and scouting director Randy Flores as other potential candidates.
Mozeliak also discussed the club’s payroll in a way that seemingly leaves the door more widely open to the club making additional moves this winter than previously thought. Though DeWitt indicated recently that the club was close to reaching the limits of its budget, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out that Mozeliak left the door open to further roster additions with comments to reporters earlier today.
“The budget question always comes up. Payroll question. It’s probably not as black and white as people would like to think it is,” Mozeliak said (as relayed by Frederickson), “Depending on what the type of investment might look like, it’s something we can always take to ownership if we feel like it’s important or a good value. But do I think there is some room in the payroll if we needed to? Yes.”
The comments largely track with those Mozeliak made early in the offseason, stating that the club needed to add “at least two” high-leverage relief arms to its bullpen mix this offseason. While the addition of veteran right-hander Andrew Kittredge surely accounts for one of those additions, the club’s other bullpen additions have been less impactful. Right-handers Nick Robertson, Wilking Rodriguez, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez all add depth to the St. Louis bullpen, the quartet has just 26 2/3 innings of combined big league experience. Plenty of quality bullpen arms who could bolster the Cardinals’ late-inning mix remain, though they’ve previously been connected to right-hander Phil Maton and left-hander Matt Moore.
In addition to those comments, Mozeliak provided updates on a trio of injured position players, noting (per Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that shortstop Tommy Edman is recovering well from the wrist surgery he underwent back in October while also adding that both outfielder Dylan Carlson and utilityman Brendan Donovan are expected to be ready for Spring Training next month. Carlson underwent ankle surgery back in September, while Donovan underwent surgery on his elbow on August 2.
The healthy return of that trio of players figures to be crucial for the Cardinals as they look to rebound from a 71-91 record that saw them finish last in the NL Central last season. Edman provides the club with valuable versatility thanks to his ability to capably handle both shortstop and center field on an everyday basis, while Donovan’s .365 on-base percentage in 95 games last year trailed only Lars Nootbaar‘s .367 figure among qualified Cardinals. Carlson, meanwhile, struggled badly in 2023 but could join Nootbaar and Jordan Walker as one of the club’s regular outfielders entering 2024 as he looks to recapture the form he flashed in 2021, when hit .266/.343/.437 in 619 trips to the plate while roving between all three outfield spots.
Cubs Notes: Suter, Imanaga, Shaw
The Cubs were among several teams with interest in left-hander Brent Suter prior to his decision to sign in Cincinnati on a one-year deal earlier this week, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Wittenmyer adds that Chicago remained interested in Suter’s services “down to the end” of his time as a free agent.
That the Cubs would have interest in Suter is hardly a surprise. The 34-year-old was among the lefty relievers the club was reportedly interested in prior to last summer’s trade deadline, and the club has found itself connected to the relief market frequently with this winter, with Ryan Braiser and Robert Stephenson among the names rumored as potential Cubs targets. Suter also spent seven seasons in Milwaukee under new Cubs manager Craig Counsell prior to joining the Rockies prior to the 2023 campaign.
The relief market has seen the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith and Chris Stratton sign over the past month in addition to Chafin, with right-hander Jordan Hicks also recently coming off the board after signing with the Giants as a starting pitcher. Even so, the Cubs nonetheless figure to have plenty of options available to them as they search to upgrade their bullpen this winter. In addition to Stephenson and Brasier, the likes of left-hander Matt Moore and right-hander David Robertson could provide some veteran stability to the late innings for Chicago, where they currently project to utilize Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather.
More from the north side of Chicago…
- The Cubs made their first big move of the offseason last week by landing left-hander Shota Imanaga on a four-year, $53MM deal. While Imanaga was posted for MLB teams to sign less than two months ago, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times recently detailed the club’s efforts to land the southpaw, which date back to the club beginning to scout the southpaw back in 2018, the third season of Imanaga’s career in Nippon Professional Baseball. Lee notes that Imanaga caught Chicago’s attention in a more significant way during the World Baseball Softball Confederation’s 2019 Premiere12 tournament, the same tournament where they first identified outfielder Seiya Suzuki as a possible future target. That lengthy time spent scouting the duo has paid off as Imanaga figures to slot behind Justin Steele in the middle of the club’s rotation this year, while Suzuki slashed an impressive .285/.357/.485 in 138 games as the club’s everyday right fielder in the second year of his five-year pact with the Cubs last year.
- Chicago’s first-round pick in the 2023 draft, shortstop Matt Shaw, made a big first impression during his first professional campaign with a .357/.400/.618 slash line in 170 trips to the plate across three levels last summer, including a stop at Double-A where he slashed a strong .292/.329/.523 in 15 games. With that performance, the 22-year-old has put himself on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point during the 2024 campaign. Gold glove fielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are locked into the middle infielder positions at Wrigley, however, and that’s led Shaw to explore new defensive positions this winter. Shaw himself told Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports at this weekend’s Cubs Convention that “probably 99%” of his defensive reps this winter have come at third base. Prospect evaluators questioned Shaw’s arm strength when he was selected last summer, making the hot corner an unusual fit for the youngster. On the other hand, the Cubs found success in moving Nick Madrigal to third base last year despite similar questions about arm strength with Madrigal posting +10 Outs Above Average at the position in 2023.
Dodgers Sign Brendon Davis, Chris Okey To Minor League Deals
The Dodgers have inked infielder Brendon Davis and catcher Chris Okey to minor league deals, according to the transaction logs and each player’s MLB.com profile page. It’s unclear if either deal comes with an invitation to MLB Spring Training next month.
It’s a reunion for Davis, 26, who was selected by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. His first stint in the organization was a short one, however, as Davis was among the prospects L.A. shipped to the Rangers to acquire right-hander Yu Darvish at the 2017 trade deadline just two years after he had been drafted. Davis’s stay in the Rangers organization was only slightly longer. He played in the club’s organization in the 2017-19 seasons and reached the Double-A level during that time before missing the 2020 season due to the cancelled minor league season. The following offseason, Davis was plucked from the Rangers organization by the Angels in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.
Davis’s return to southern California was a successful one, as he slashed .290/.362/.561 across three levels during the 2021 season, including a .333/.409/.641 slash line in a 33-game taste of the Triple-A level. 2022 saw him get a full season of experience in Triple-A, though his numbers fell back down to Earth a bit as he slashed just .235/.340/.424. Most of that production came in the Tigers organization, as Detroit claimed him off waivers from the Angels in May of that year. Davis even saw his first taste of big league action during the 2022 season thanks to a brief late-season call-up from the Tigers, though he collected just two hits, a walk, and a stolen base while striking out three times in 11 trips to the plate during his three-game stint in the majors.
Davis remained in Detroit for the 2023 season but struggled badly at Triple-A early in the season, slashing .178/.289/.363 and making it into just 43 games before the club released him back in June. Now back with the team that drafted him nearly a decade ago, Davis figures to provide the Dodgers with a depth option in the upper minors going forward. The 26-year-old boasts experience at all four infield spots and all three outfield spots, though he’s spent most of his time on the left side of the infield to this point in his career.
As for Okey, the 29-year-old was a second-round pick by the Reds back in 2016 and slowly worked his way up the minor league ladder, eventually reaching Triple-A in 2019. After the aforementioned layoff in 2020, Okey managed a respectable .237/.330/.379 slash line in 2021 before making his big league debut the following June. Okey’s time in the majors that season lasted just seven games, however, before he was designated for assignment and spent the rest of the season back at Triple-A.
After electing minor league free agency that winter, Okey caught on with the Angels on a minor league deal. An early-season injury to Logan O’Hoppe provided a potential opportunity for Okey at the big league level but the club ultimately relied primarily on the services of Matt Thaiss and Chad Wallach until O’Hoppe returned in August, with Okey appearing in just two games at the big league level. He struck out in both of his plate appearances in the majors last year, though he did manage to hit a respectable .281/.345/.414 in 235 trips to the plate with the club’s Triple-A affiliate last year.
Going forward, Okey will remain in southern California with the Halos’ geographic rival in L.A. as a depth option behind the plate. The club seems largely set behind the plate thanks to the long-standing tandem of Will Smith and Austin Barnes, but the presence of Okey could allow the club to avoid rushing a prospect like Diego Cartaya, Hunter Feduccia, or Dalton Rushing to the majors in the event of an injury.
Cardinals May Wait On Goldschmidt Extension Talks Until Season Begins
Paul Goldschmidt is entering the last season of the five-year, $130MM extension he signed with the Cardinals back in March 2019, so the star first baseman is on pace to hit agency at age 37. Team president of baseball operations John Mozeliak addressed Goldschmidt’s future when talking with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X) and other reporters today at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-up fan event, and Mozeliak indicated that contract talks might be held off until beyond Opening Day.
“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts. You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.
Reports surfaced last month about the Cards’ interest in retaining Goldschmidt, with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noting that talks might well last into the season, even if the team’s preference was to have Goldschmidt locked up in advance of Opening Day. In that sense, Mozeliak’s comments today don’t represent a huge shift in the Cardinals’ overall plan to keep Goldschmidt, yet as Jones notes, a lack of talks at all during Spring Training is perhaps “telling” about both the club’s long-term belief in Goldschmidt and/or the Cards’ own ability to contend.
Goldschmidt hit .268/.363/.447 with 25 home runs over 687 plate appearances last season, translating to a 122 wRC+. These are obviously still very solid numbers, particularly for a player in his age-35 season, yet it did represent a dropoff from Goldschmidt’s NL MVP production (.317/.404/.578 with 35 homers, 176 wRC+) in 2022. The 122 mark is actually the third-lowest wRC+ Goldschmidt has posted in his 13 Major League seasons, which might be more of a sign of how great he has been over a Cooperstown-level career than a sign of any true regression.
That said, if a player is even able to keep playing at a high level until his late 30’s, sharp and sudden declines aren’t uncommon. It could be that the Cardinals are just exercising a bit more caution in seeing how Goldschmidt proceeds over the first couple of months before deciding whether or not to make another pricey commitment, even if the first baseman’s next deal will be shorter than five years in length.
The other financial element involved is the Cardinals’ broadcasting contract with Bally Sports Midwest, and parent company Diamond Sports. While the Cards’ deal runs through the 2032 season, Diamond Sports’ declaration of bankruptcy last year has left the Cardinals as one of the many teams in a state of uncertainty about their TV futures, and the Bally Sports broadcasts might cease once the 2024 campaign is complete.
Discussions about the situation remain ongoing between Diamond Sports and Major League Baseball, though until some resolution is in sight, St. Louis might be keeping spending in check. Club president Bill DeWitt III said earlier this week that might not have much or any remaining payroll space for any significant moves this offseason, and it stands to reason that those restraints might stretch into any big expenditures on Goldschmidt or others beyond 2024.
The Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing 71-91 record last season is also certainly a factor, and it seems possible that the wait-and-see approach to an extension is shared by both the team and Goldschmidt himself. If he has any doubts about St. Louis’ ability to quickly return to contention, Goldschmidt might prefer to enter free agency and seek out a new deal with a more clear-cut contender for 2025. From the front office’s perspective, if the Cardinals get off to a rough start and might look to again sell at the trade deadline, Goldschmidt would stand out as a big trade chip that could be dealt. Goldschmidt holds full no-trade protection, though if St. Louis is indeed out of the pennant race by midseason, he might welcome a deadline move to a contender.
St. Louis has around $178MM on the books for 2024 and around $102.7MM currently projected for the 2025 payroll, according to Roster Resource. Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras, and Steven Matz are the only Cardinals on guaranteed deals through at least 2025, as Goldschmidt can be a free agent, and Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Giovanny Gallegos are signed through 2024 with club options for 2025.
Reds Designate Daniel Duarte For Assignment
The Reds announced that right-hander Daniel Duarte has been designated for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Brent Suter, whose one-year deal with Cincinnati is now official.
Duarte spent most of the 2022 season battling elbow problems, but he still managed to make his big league debut by tossing 2 2/3 innings over three appearances with the Reds that year. With better health this past season, Duarte split the year between the big leagues (31 2/3 innings) and Triple-A Louisville (35 innings) before going on the Major League injured list in late September due to shoulder tightness.
The results were good on the whole for Duarte in 2023, as he had a 3.34 ERA in the minors and a 3.69 ERA during his time in Cincinnati. However, control has been an issue for the righty over the last seasons, as he had an 11.3% walk rate at Lousiville and then a 14.7% walk rate in the big leagues. Duarte had a respectable 25.8% strikeout rate in the minors but struck out only 16.9% of Major League batters, and he had almost as many walks (20) as strikeouts (23).
Over three years with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, Duarte had a 4.05 ERA, 26.76% strikeout rate, and a 11.61% walk rate. While respectable numbers, they also didn’t stand out to the extent that the Reds felt compelled to keep Duarte on their 40-man, and he now might be a candidate to be claimed by another team looking for bullpen depth. If he clears waivers, Cincinnati might opt to keep Duarte on hand as a relief option who can be frequently shuttled up and down from the minors as circumstances warrant.
Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions
Craig Breslow‘s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito‘s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park. With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.
Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control. Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects. It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers. Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.
Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster. However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency. Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”
This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance. Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.
One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023. That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.
This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga. Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations. However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.
The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.” Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.
There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023. That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.
Orioles Interested In James Paxton
The Orioles have shown some interest in free agent left-hander James Paxton, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Paxton is the latest of many pitchers linked to the O’s on the rumor mill this offseason, largely in the middle tier of the free agent market — as Heyman phrases it, “every starter from Marcus Stroman on down.”
Paxton is theoretically a familiar AL East opponent for the Orioles given his recent time with the Red Sox and Yankees, though Paxton hasn’t actually faced Baltimore since 2019 when he was part of New York’s pitching staff. This speaks to both a quirk of the schedule and the simple fact that injuries have largely kept the southpaw on the shelf for most of the last four seasons. After pitching just 21 2/3 innings total from 2020-22, Paxton was healthy enough to toss 96 innings for the Red Sox last year, posting a 4.50 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and an eight percent walk rate.
This 2023 work was bookended by two stints on the injured list. A hamstring strain delayed Paxton’s season debut until May 12, and his last outing came on September 1 before right knee inflammation shut him down for the remainder of the campaign. It is worth noting that Paxton had a 3.34 ERA over his first 86 1/3 innings and 16 starts, before getting tagged for a 14.90 ERA in 9 2/3 frames in his last three outings.
If the sour ending can be attributed to his knee problem or perhaps just fatigue from his first significant workload in years, Paxton’s 2023 results indicate that he can still find success against big league batters. Naturally injuries are always going to be a lingering concern for Paxton and he won’t be counted on as an innings-eater, but he could be an interesting fit on a young Orioles team.
Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and John Means seem locked in as the top four members of the Orioles rotation, and Paxton would therefore be the primary fifth starter. In order to preserve Paxton’s health, the O’s could manage his innings and usage by having any of Cole Irvin, Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, DL Hall, or Jonathan Heasley either take spot starts, or work in some kind of non-“starting” capacity (i.e. as piggyback starters or opener/bulk pitcher combinations) to cover innings.
Signing Paxton wouldn’t necessarily raise the ceiling of the rotation, yet if a frontline ace isn’t available in the Orioles’ price range (whether financially or in trade costs), a relatively smaller outlay for Paxton might at least help raise the floor of what the O’s could expect from their pitching. It would also leave some flexibility for Baltimore to perhaps pursue another starting option closer to the trade deadline.
Baltimore has seemed unwilling to make a splashy move in the free agent pitching market, as a source tells Heyman that such top available hurlers as Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell aren’t realistic options on the Orioles’ radar “unless the market collapsed.” However, the O’s did at least check in on Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and they have reportedly had interest in such trade targets as Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes. The team also looked into such upper-tier relievers as Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, and Robert Stephenson before inking Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13MM deal.
Nationals Re-Sign Travis Blankenhorn
In a move that flew under our radar last month, the Nationals re-signed first baseman/outfielder Travis Blankenhorn to a minor league contract, according to Blankenhorn’s MLB.com profile page. The Nats outrighted Blankenhorn off their 40-man roster in October, and he chose to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, as is his right as a player who has previously been outrighted off a 40-man roster during his career.
Blankenhorn signed a minors deal with Washington last winter and spent most of 2023 at the Triple-A level, where he hit an impressive .262/.360/.517 and 23 homers over 455 plate appearances for the Rochester Red Wings. He didn’t receive a callup to the big league roster until the start of September, and he amassed 37 PA over 10 games for the Nationals before his season was prematurely ended by a bout of plantar fasciitis.
Originally a third-round pick for the Twins in the 2015 draft, Blankenhorn made his MLB debut in 2020 by appearing in a single game for Minnesota. He also made a one-game cameo in the 2022 season with the Mets, and overall, the 27-year-old has 36 games and 68 PA as a big leaguer with Washington, New York, and Minnesota. Over 1053 career PA at Triple-A, Blankenhorn has hit .261/.353/.485 with 48 home runs.
The bulk of Blankenhorn’s minor league playing time has come as a second and third baseman, though he hasn’t played the hot corner at any level since 2019, and he played only as a first baseman and corner outfielder in 2023. That still gives him a fair amount of defensive versatility, and Blankenhorn’s left-handed bat makes him an interesting possible depth complement since Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett, and Lane Thomas are all right-handed hitters. An injury or trade might be required for Blankenhorn to really get an opportunity on the Nationals’ active roster, but he’ll return to the organization as a familiar depth piece for Rochester’s team.
Giants Sign Jordan Hicks
The Giants announced that they have signed a four-year, $44MM contract with free agent right-hander Jordan Hicks. The righty will get a one-time signing bonus of $2MM, a $6MM salary in 2024, followed by a $12MM salary in the three subsequent years. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the deal and added that the Giants plan to utilize Hicks as a starter rather than a reliever. Hicks, who is represented by the Ballengee Group, can also earn an additional $2MM of annual incentives based on innings pitched, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Those incentives begin kicking in at the 100-inning mark, she adds.
A move back to the rotation is surprising, but it won’t be an entirely unfamiliar role for the flamethrowing 27-year-old. Hicks worked as a starter in the minors before debuting in the Cardinals’ bullpen during the 2018 season, and St. Louis briefly experimented with a move back to the rotation early in the 2022 campaign. That didn’t pan out — he yielded 16 runs in 24 2/3 innings before moving back to a relief role — but the Giants will try their hand at maximizing Hicks’ explosive arsenal out of their own rotation. The Giants have indeed shown a knack for helping pitchers break out — Kevin Gausman chief among them — and Hicks clearly has the type of raw stuff to intrigue clubs in a larger role.
Few pitchers can rival Hicks in terms of sheer velocity. He’s averaged 100.8 mph on his four-seamer and 100.2 mph on his two-seamer to this point in his career and has topped out at borderline comical 105 mph. The former third-round pick couples that blistering velocity with a slider that sits at 86.5 mph, and he’s thrown very occasional “changeups” in the past (never higher than at a 4% clip) — sitting 91.8 mph on that pitch overall.
Given the uncommonly young age at which he reached the open market and the overpowering nature of his raw arsenal, Hicks has long felt like a pitcher who’d command substantial interest despite a more modest track record. MLBTR ranked him 21st on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year, $40MM contract from a club believing it could unlock another gear in the righty.
As one might expect for a pitcher with this type of superhuman velocity, durability has been an issue. Hicks has never pitched more than 105 innings between the big leagues and minors combined in any season of his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, had a 60-day IL stint due to inflammation in that same elbow in 2021, and missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to a flexor strain. Hicks returned from that injury in early July and was placed back on the injured list in mid-September due to arm fatigue.
Of course, when he’s healthy and at his best, Hicks can be flat-out overpowering. He sports a career 3.85 ERA, but that’s skewed by 10 ugly innings prior to his UCL tear in 2019 and by his rough work as a starter in 2022. In 2023, Hicks turned in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and a 58.3% ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, who acquired him from St. Louis at the trade deadline in exchange for minor league pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. That ground-ball rate is nothing new; Hicks boasts a sensational 60.4% grounder rate in his career. Unfortunately, last year’s command troubles aren’t new either. He’s issued a free pass to an unsightly 12.8% of his opponents in the Majors.
Given last year’s innings count — and totals of 66 1/3 and 13 frames in the two preceding seasons — it’s difficult to imagine Hicks simply stepping into a rotation and firing off 30-plus starts, even if he’s able to remain healthy. The Giants figure to place him on some kind of innings limit in 2024, whether that means capping him at five innings per start, using him to piggyback with another starter, or simply giving him some occasional spells in the bullpen to keep his arm fresh.
An ideal setting might see Hicks move to the bullpen late in the season right as recent trade acquisition Robbie Ray returns from Tommy John surgery, though a lot needs to go right before that’s a legitimate consideration. If Hicks is able to both remain healthy and pitch effectively as a starter this coming season, the team could give him a larger workload come 2025. At that point, plugging Hicks and Ray into the rotation behind ace Logan Webb could give San Francisco a formidable trio. That’s a major “if,” but the upside is intriguing.
For the time being, Hicks will add another question mark to a rotation that’s teeming with uncertainty behind Webb, a 2023 Cy Young Award finalist. Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched last year, but Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to reach even 100 innings. Manaea has since signed with the Mets in free agency, and Cobb will open the 2024 season on the injured list while he recovers from hip surgery.
Hicks joins veteran swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and young righties Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck as candidates to fill out the rotation behind Webb. Twenty-five-year-old righty Kai-Wei Teng, who walked nearly 14% of his opponents in Triple-A last year, is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is surely viewed as a potential rotation mainstay by Giants brass, but he’s pitched just 19 2/3 innings above A-ball and in all likelihood won’t be an option until the 2025 campaign.
It seems fair to envision the Giants making further additions to their rotation, given all that instability, although with both Cobb and Ray on the mend, there will be veteran reinforcements filtering in as the season wears on. Still, the Giants entered the offseason with question marks on the pitching staff and throughout the lineup, and many of those needs remain unaddressed. Adding a more established arm — be it a mid-tier arm in the Mike Clevinger/Michael Lorenzen/Hyun Jin Ryu vein or a top-tier starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — still seems both prudent and well within the Giants’ budgetary capacity.
As it stands, the Giants’ payroll currently projects to about $167MM, per Roster Resource, while their luxury-tax ledger sits nearly $30MM shy of the $237MM first-tier threshold. San Francisco opened the 2023 season with a $188MM payroll and has previously put forth a $200MM roster in the past, so there ought to be considerable room for further augmentation on the free agent and/or trade markets.
White Sox Sign Rafael Ortega To Minor League Deal
The White Sox signed Rafael Ortega to a minor league contract last week, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log and the outfielder’s Instagram page. It’s likely he’ll be in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.
Ortega is looking to get back to the majors for a fourth straight season and an eighth campaign overall. The left-handed hitter has appeared for six different teams. The only time he spanned multiple seasons with the same club came on the other side of Chicago. Ortega was a Cub between 2021-22, operating as their starting center fielder and leadoff hitter for a time.
Those years on the North Side have been Ortega’s most productive to date. He combined for a solid .265/.344/.408 batting line in just over 700 plate appearances. That made it moderately surprising both that the Cubs non-tendered him last offseason and that he was forced to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees.
Ortega didn’t secure an outfield spot in the Bronx, kicking off a nomadic 2023. He was granted his release from the Yankees. A minor league pact with the Rangers also didn’t get Ortega back to the majors. He signed another non-roster pact, this time with the Mets, in mid-June. After New York fell out of contention and traded Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the deadline, they brought Ortega to the majors.
He didn’t hit at the level he had with the Cubs. Ortega reached base at a solid .341 clip but only hit one home run over 136 plate appearances. His .213/.341/.272 slash was well below average. New York outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the end of the year, the equivalent of an early non-tender.
For the second straight spring, Ortega will try to secure a roster spot in Spring Training. The 32-year-old can play all three outfield spots but is a better fit in a corner than in center field. Chicago has Luis Robert Jr. locked into center and Andrew Benintendi set for a bounceback opportunity in left. Right field, where the Sox got a .219/.271/.344 showing last year, is wide open. As thing stand, Óscar Colás and Gavin Sheets project to split time.
General manager Chris Getz acknowledged on Tuesday the front office could add a more established option. Ortega shouldn’t stand in the way of that pursuit. The transaction tracker indicates his deal was signed on January 5, even if it wasn’t officially logged until yesterday. Getz was surely aware Ortega was part of the organization before Tuesday’s comments about a potential right field acquisition. Brett Phillips, Wynton Bernard and Mark Payton are also in the organization as non-roster players.