Details On Dylan Cease Trade Talks Between White Sox, Reds
There hasn’t been much on the Dylan Cease front since early December, when reports suggested that the White Sox were going to wait until the free agent pitching market had become a bit clearer before again weighing offers for the right-hander. The Reds were known to be one of the clubs interested in Cease, though 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reported that the Sox had asked for a four-player trade package — pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, as well as two position-player prospects.
Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer sheds some more light on Chicago’s demands, writing that the White Sox wanted Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, “and at least one more prospect.” This could mean that the Sox wanted a five-player return, with Petty and an unknown position player comprising the other two names involved. MLB Pipeline ranks Lowder, Arroyo, and Phillips within the top 68 prospects in all of baseball, while Lowder (45th) and Phillips (86th) also ranked within Baseball America’s last top 100 ranking from September.
New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been open about the fact that he is willing to discuss any player on his team’s roster in trade negotiations, though some obviously come at a much higher price tag than others. Luis Robert Jr. may be the only player close to truly untouchable, and Cease might not be far off, though the two have differing levels of team control. Robert’s contract contains two club options that control his services through the 2027 season, while Cease has only two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he can hit free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.
Still, two years of a frontline pitcher like Cease is still quite an asset — either for a White Sox team trying to get on track after a disastrous season, or as a trade chip the Sox can use to reload the roster for both now and the future. The Reds are a natural trade partner on paper, given how Cincinnati is in sore need of pitching help and is also deep in position-player prospects. Cincinnati was known to have interest in Chicago’s pitching even prior to the All-Star break, so it is safe to assume Cease has been on the Reds’ radar for a while, at least in some fashion.
Because the White Sox are known to be targeting pitching, however, the Sox and Reds might not quite line up as smoothly on a Cease trade as it might seem. Obviously any team would be hesitant about moving three of its top-rated pitching prospects, and in particular, the Reds would be wary about cleaning out their pitching assets when they have so much of an surplus in another area (the infield) in their farm system. Speculatively speaking, the Reds might be more willing to consider a package of Arroyo, another position player, and one pitcher for Cease, yet it isn’t surprising why Cincinnati would balk at moving at least two of Phillips, Lowder, and Petty on top of what is already a substantial return of infield talent.
There isn’t really any harm in aiming high, of course, as Getz has plenty of offseason left to continue to explore other potential trade packages involving Cease. The fact that the Dodgers have already nabbed two of the top free agent (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and trade (Tyler Glasnow) targets on the market has left a lot of other teams still in sore need of rotation help, so it certainly seems possible that Cease might be wearing another uniform by Opening Day.
It is also too early to rule the Reds out of any further Cease talks, even if that rumored four-for-one or five-for-one seems like a bridge too far. Cincinnati has been aggressive in adding to its rotation and bullpen by signing Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan, and bolstered its infield picture even further by signing Jeimer Candelario. The addition of Candelario seemingly makes it more likely that the Reds could move an infielder in some manner of trade, whether for Cease or another pitcher.
Red Sox, Angels Reportedly Interested In Teoscar Hernandez
TODAY: Hernandez and the Red Sox have “been discussing potential contract parameters” but no formal offer has been made, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. The team’s “engagement with Hernandez picked up” after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers, as the Sox had been one of the other suitors monitoring Yamamoto’s market.
DECEMBER 22: The Red Sox and Angels are both showing interest in outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Hernandez’s market has been fairly quiet since the offseason started last month, as slugger Shohei Ohtani dominated the positional market for much of the offseason to this point while the outfield market has seen most of its activity come from trades, with players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Jarred Kelenic changing hands.
Hernandez, 31, is coming off a down season at the plate during which he slashed just .258/.305/.435 (105 wRC+) as a member of the Mariners. With that being said, the slugger still managed to crush 26 home runs last season and entered 2023 with a whopping .283/.333/.519 slash line since the start of the 2020 campaign. That slash line is good for a 133 wRC+, tied with Austin Riley for the 20th best figure in the majors across the 2020-22 seasons. With a stable, above-average offensive floor and a tantalizing, All Star-caliber ceiling, Hernandez ranked 12th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract.
Either team is a fairly plausible fit for Hernandez. The Angels have a fairly healthy outfield mix that features superstar Mike Trout in center field with Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak as the club’s top corner options, backed up by the likes of Jo Adell and Luis Rengifo. That being said, Rosenthal also reports that Rengifo, Ward, and Moniak are all garnering trade interest from other clubs. Moving even one of those players could provide an open for Hernandez to take a corner outfield spot on an everyday basis. Even if the club decides not to move on from any of the bats currently in its outfield mix, the addition of Hernandez and his reliable 25 to 30 home run power would go a long way to replacing the 44 dingers Ohtani smacked this past season.
As for Boston, the club shipped Verdugo to the Bronx earlier in the offseason before replacing him with Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals. That leaves the club with O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Rob Refsnyder to mix-and-match with alongside Masataka Yoshida, who figures to split time between left field and DH on a daily basis next season. While O’Neill and Duran both have everyday potential and a youngster such as Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela could emerge as a quality option, adding a reliable bat to the outfield could provide a major boost to a Red Sox offense that lost Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to free agency last month. Boston’s hitting corps posted a middle-of-the-pack 99 wRC+ last season and Hernandez’s power potential could be a catalyst for a club that generated just 63 home runs from its outfield mix in 2023, the seventh-worst figure in the majors.
As Rosenthal notes, Boston appears to be focused on acquiring a front-of-the-rotation starter at the moment. The Angels, meanwhile, were connected to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell recently and have reportedly been aggressive on the trade market in hopes of upgrading their pitching staff. Even as run prevention appears to be the priority of both clubs headed into 2024, that’s unlikely to preclude either club from adding a bat of Hernandez’s caliber. Roster Resource projects the Angels for a 2024 payroll $62MM lower than their 2023 figure, while the Red Sox project for a payroll $67MM under their all-time high payroll (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) of just over $236MM. That should leave both organizations with plenty of payroll room for both Hernandez (whose aforementioned contract projection from MLBTR carries an average annual value of $20MM) and a front-end starter such as Snell or Jordan Montgomery, to say nothing of the availability of cheaper options like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market.
Of course, Hernandez is hardly the only right-handed bat of note who either club could look to add this offseason. That being said, other options such as Turner, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins all seem likely to require regular use of the DH slot. While that doesn’t appear to be a problem for the Angels, who have previously been connected to Martinez this offseason, the Red Sox seem poised to rotate between bat-first players like Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas at DH. The acquisition of any of these alternative bats would likely force Boston to play all three of those players in the field on a nearly everyday basis, complicating their defensive outlook significantly.
2023-24 MLB Free Agents
The following players are currently free agents. Each player’s 2024 age is in parentheses. The cutoff for this list is typically 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors in 2023.
For a free agent list that can be filtered to signed or unsigned players, position, age, handedness, and much more, check out our MLB Contract Tracker. The Contract Tracker is only available to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
Updated 3-27-24
Catchers
Manny Piña (37)
First Basemen
Brandon Belt (36)
Wil Myers (33)
Darin Ruf (37)
Donovan Solano (36)
Second Basemen
Hanser Alberto (31)
Jonathan Schoop (32)
Jean Segura (34)
Donovan Solano (36)
Shortstops
Adalberto Mondesi (28)
Third Basemen
Evan Longoria (38)
Jean Segura (34)
Left Fielders
Corey Dickerson (35)
Austin Meadows (29)
Tommy Pham (36)
AJ Pollock (36)
Raimel Tapia (30)
Center Fielders
None
Right Fielders
Wil Myers (33)
Designated Hitters
Kyle Lewis (28)
Austin Meadows (29)
Starting Pitchers
Matthew Boyd (33)
Mike Clevinger (33)
Johnny Cueto (38)
Zack Greinke (40)
Rich Hill (44)
Noah Syndergaard (31)
Julio Urias (27)
Vince Velasquez (32)
Right-Handed Relievers
Anthony Bass (36)
Brad Boxberger (36)
Codi Heuer (27)
Mark Melancon (39)
Zach Neal (35)
Alex Reyes (29)
Nick Wittgren (33)
Left-Handed Relievers
Jarlin Garcia (31)
Brad Hand (34)
Aaron Loup (36)
Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot
Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before retiring in July 2021. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong southern New Jersey resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Once again, Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot. I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers. Here’s Marc…
This was an extremely difficult baseball Hall of Fame ballot because it causes debate over those who prioritize longevity over others who place emphasis on shorter-term excellence.
Before going into the ballot, a little bit about the philosophy of this voter.
First off, I won’t criticize anybody’s ballot. There are many different opinions on what a Hall of Fame player should be and that is fine.
As stated last year at MLBtraderumors.com and in also in 2021, I have not voted for those associated with steroids.
As one can see from the comments sections, there are many of you who have disagreed and that’s fine. I’m not here to try to convince anybody to change his or her mind. This is just the way I feel, how the steroid era put such a stain on the game.
I have also not voted for Carlos Beltran, who admittedly was the mastermind of the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. Those actions cost him his job as a manager and for now, this vote.
Again, I can see people who think this is crazy to keep such an accomplished player off the ballot. I’m not here to attempt to convince anybody either way, just to say this is what went into my voting.
I don’t think all the Astros should be punished, but that’s another story for another day.
Now, for the ballot.
There are two holdovers who I voted for last year and we will start there.
Helton, now in his sixth year on the ballot, is close to the finish line. He received 72.2% of the votes. Just a refresher, a player needs 75% of the votes. For those who didn’t see last year’s story, we’ll reiterate his case.
The negative perception is that he was a product of playing his entire career at Coors Field. The splits were significant home and away.
Yet his .287/.386/.469 slash line on the road was impressive, but it did pale in comparison to his numbers at Coors – .345/441/.607.
His career line was .316/414/.539.
While the sabermetrics community may scoff at batting average, it takes a lot to hit .300 for a season, let alone a career. Last season just nine players with the required 502 plate appearance hit .300.
In 2000, Helton won a batting title hitting .372.
Here were his splits that season – home: .391/.484/.758. Away: .353/.441/633.
He was a first baseman who wasn’t known for his power, but he still hit 369 home runs and had 1,406 RBI, while playing all 17 seasons for the Rockies.
Helton was a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a three-time Gold Glove recipient.
It’s more than enough to put him on this ballot.
Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot and keeps moving closer. (How a person fares on other ballots doesn’t impact this vote, but it is good to note how close or far somebody is from being elected).
Wagner last year earned 68.1% of the votes.
The two knocks against Wagner are his low innings total and his postseason struggles.
Both are valid points.
Wagner pitched just 903 innings. His postseason production, even though it only consisted of 11 1/3 innings over 14 appearances, was poor to say the least. He had a 10.03 ERA, although Wagne did convert all three save opportunities.
His positives outweigh the negatives.
In looking for a HOF player, I like to see excellence. Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum of 750 innings pitched) is the best in MLB history.
Wagner had 422 saves, and an impressive save percentage (86%). His career 2.31 ERA and 187 ERA+ are second best among HOF relievers. Only Mariano Rivera (2.21 ERA, and 205 ERA+) is better in both categories.
The newcomers
There won’t be much convincing to do here. Beltre’s career 93.5 rWAR is surpassed by just two HOF third basemen – Mike Schmidt (106.8) and Eddie Matthews (96.0).
Here were Beltre’s career numbers – .286/339/.480 for his career with 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1707 RBI and a 116 OPS+. One thing that is interesting is that he was just a four-time All-Star. He won five Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers and was a Top 10 MVP finisher six times.
The only question with Beltre is whether he will be a unanimous choice.
Here is where the debate starts. The knock against Mauer is that while he was an excellent catcher, he only played the position for a decade. Due to concussions from catching, he moved to first base for the final five seasons. He caught 70 or more games eight times. In total he caught 921 games, making 885 starts as a catcher.
In those 10 seasons he hit .323/405/.469 with a 135 OPS+.
When somebody does something historical, the feeling here is that it should add to his HOF candidacy. Mauer is the only catcher to win three batting titles, in 2006, 2008 and 2009. In those three years, he caught 120, 139 and 109 games respectively. He batted .347 in 2006, .328 in 2008 and .365 in 2009.
During those first 10 seasons, he was a six-time All-Star, won an MVP (in 2009) and finished in the Top 10 four times. Mauer also earned five Silver Slugger awards and three Gold Gloves.
Is that enough production in a decade of work?
Due to the demands of the position, we think so.
Plus, how much did the toll of catching and the injuries contribute to the decline after he switched positions?
His final five seasons were well below HOF worthy – .278/.359/.388 with a 105 OPS+. Never a big home run hitter, he hit 38 of his career 143 home runs in the final five seasons.
Still, even with the decline, here are his career statistics – .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+.
Only eight HOF catchers have a higher career rWAR than Mauer (55.2).
He certainly did enough in his years as a catcher to make this ballot.
The longevity issue is what hurts Utley. Utley had a five-year stretch that was definitely HOF standard. From 2005-2009, he hit .301/.388/535 and averaged 29.2 home runs. 110.6 runs, 101.4 RBI, 151 games and 675 plate appearances. His fWAR average for those five years was an astonishing 7.7.
During this span Utley earned four of his six All-Star appearances.
The Phillies made the playoffs the final three of those seasons, winning the World Series in 2008 and losing to the NY Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Utley hit five home runs in the 2009 series, which is tied for the most in MLB history. Reggie Jackson in 1977 and George Springer in 2017 also hit five.
He had other strong seasons, but none to match this five-year average.
His career numbers, especially for a second baseman were strong – .275/.358/.465 and a 117 OPS+. He had 1,103 runs and 1,025 RBI. Will the fact that he had fewer than 2,000 hits (1,885) hurt Utley?
Probably in the eyes of some, but he ended up being a six-time All-Star and earning four Silver Slugger Awards.
Only 10 HOF second basemen have a higher rWAR than Utley (64.5). Only four HOF second basemen have more home runs than Utley (259).
Injuries caught up to Utley, but he was more than a five-year wonder. Even after 2009, he would make two other All-Star teams and from 2010-2014 had an average OPS+ of 116.
Utley played the game hard, was a quiet leader of during the greatest run in Phillies history when they qualified for the playoffs five consecutive seasons 2007-2011.
It is understandable for those who feel he didn’t perform at a top level long enough, but he did enough to get on this ballot.
New York Mets third baseman David Wright was on a HOF trajectory before spinal stenosis ended his career. Wright’s last full-time year was his age-31 season in 2014.
His counting stats, which included 1,777 career hits and 242 home runs, will be used against him, but Wright had an impressive nine-year peak, where he earned seven All-Star berths. The seven all-star games matched last year’s HOF inductee Scott Rolen.
From 2005-2013, Wright hit .302/.384./.505 with a 138 OPS+. Wright averaged 23 home runs, 90 runs and 93 RBI. During this time, he won two Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting four times. After this period, he would play just one more full season, 2014 when the decline began.
His final career numbers were .296/376/.491 and a 133 OPS+. Only seven HOF third baseman have a higher OPS+ than Wright.
Should Wright be penalized for suffering what turned out to be a career-ending injury, that ended his full-time status after his age 31 season?
It can be argued that durability is part of being a HOF player and that is a good case, but Wright was the face of the franchise, a perennial All-Star and a strong two-way performer.
We can see both sides of this argument, just as we can for Utley and to a degree Mauer, but these players did enough to make it onto this ballot, even if their excellence was shorter than some would like.
Braxton Garrett’s Rotation Emergence
Braxton Garrett did not begin the 2023 season in the Marlins’ rotation. His first appearance was a three-inning relief outing on April 1. The Fish optioned him two days later but recalled him within a day as Johnny Cueto went on the injured list.
Cueto’s injury opened a spot for Garrett to assume the #5 starting job behind Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. The left-hander was a quality depth option, a former #7 overall pick who had turned in a 3.58 ERA over 17 starts in 2022. That the Marlins nevertheless brought in Cueto and began with Garrett sixth on the depth chart suggests the front office had trepidation about his ability to repeat those results.
Once injury pushed Garrett back into the starting mix, he didn’t look back. The 26-year-old made 30 starts from that point forward, ultimately logging 159 2/3 innings. He finished third on the team in workload while allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. That came with above-average peripherals across the board. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect.
It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. The well-rounded arsenal allowed him to avoid significant platoon issues. Garrett’s strikeout and walk profile was better than average regardless of the opponent’s handedness. Right-handed hitters made more authoritative contact than southpaws, but neither side produced much overall.
Garrett’s development into a mid-rotation arm has taken on extra importance given other setbacks in the starting staff. Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October, knocking him out of the mix for 2024. Rogers injured his left biceps and right (non-throwing shoulder), limiting him to four starts. Cabrera, a former top pitching prospect, has shown promising stuff but continues to issue plenty of free passes. The Cueto signing didn’t work.
Miami’s rotation was productive overall. Luzardo also took a step forward, while 20-year-old Eury Pérez posted a 3.15 ERA over 19 starts as a rookie. That the Fish turned to Garrett in the second game of their Wild Card series with the Phillies still hints at both the strength of his ’23 campaign and some of the hits Miami took above him on the season-opening depth chart.
Garrett has just under two years of major league service. He’ll surely qualify for early arbitration next offseason as a Super Two player but remains under club control for five additional seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote in late November the Fish were receiving trade interest in their young starters but were likely to consider Garrett off limits. There’s no question of his place in the rotation heading into 2024.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Padres Sign Yuki Matsui To Five-Year Deal
The Padres have signed left-hander Yuki Matsui to a five-year contract, the club has announced. Matsui and the Padres were reportedly close to a deal earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Matsui will receive $28MM guaranteed over the life of the contract, which includes opt-outs after the third and fourth seasons of the deal as well as an injury clause that can convert the fifth year of the contract into a club option worth $7MM if Matsui suffers a “serious” elbow injury during the life of the contract.
The deal represents San Diego’s first significant buy-side move of the offseason, and their first major move since trading star slugger Juan Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees earlier this month for a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe. It’s a somewhat unusual deal for a reliever; right-hander Robert Suarez‘s agreement with the Padres and the record-breaking deal between star closer Edwin Diaz and the Mets, both of which were signed last offseason, are the only contracts for free agent relievers to surpass five years.
Matsui landed at #43 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $16MM deal. Matsui nearly doubled that guarantee, though the average annual value of his deal comes in at just $5.6MM, well below the $8MM MLBTR projected him for over a two-year apct. Despite the unusual length of the deal, the gamble is an understandable one for the Padres to make. The deal covers Matsui’s age-28 through -32 seasons, with his first opt-out opportunity coming after Matsui’s age-30 campaign in 2026. The lowered AAV of the deal was surely particularly appealing to the Padres, who are reportedly hoping to stay under the luxury tax in 2024. Given those financial constraints, Matsui’s deal represents a more cost-effective alternative to reuniting with relief ace Josh Hader, who MLBTR projected for a whopping six-year, $110MM guarantee on the heels of a dominant season as San Diego’s closer.
While Matsui can’t be reasonably expected to match Hader’s incredible production last season (1.28 ERA and 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings), the lefty has put together an excellent career overseas in his own right. Matsui’s spent the past ten seasons pitching for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Tohuku Rakuten Golden Eagles. During his NPB career, Matsui has racked up 236 saves in 501 appearances while earning five All Star nods. In 659 2/3 innings of work during his career, Matsui sports a sterling 2.40 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate. He’s been even more impressive over the past three seasons, a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time.
Matsui was a frequent subject of MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series throughout the 2023 season, where Dai Takegami Podziewski discussed Matsui’s four-pitch mix that includes a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96 along with a splitter, slider, and curveball while also noting that Matsui reportedly struggled to adjust to the MLB ball while participating in the World Baseball Classic last spring. Clearly, the Padres were more enticed by Matsui’s deep pitch mix and impressive velocity for a lefty who is listed at just 5’8” and 167 pounds than they were concerned by his struggles to adjust to the ball used in the majors earlier this year.
While the addition of Matsui shores up a Padres bullpen lacking in certainty, there’s plenty left for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office to do if they hope to return to contention in 2024. Another set-up arm to pair with Matsui and Suarez at the back of the bullpen would be helpful, and at least one more starting pitcher who can step into the void left by the departures of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez this offseason alongside King appears to be all but necessary.
On the hitting side of things, the Padres have just two outfielders on their 40-man roster at the moment in Fernando Tatis Jr. and fourth outfielder Jose Azocar, meaning they’ll need to make multiple additions to the lineup to cover the two vacant outfield spots and DH, which lacks a clear starter following the deal that sent Matt Carpenter and his salary to Atlanta earlier in the month.
That’s a hefty shopping list for any club, but it’s especially daunting for a Padres club that projects for a $210MM luxury tax payroll per RosterResource. If the Padres are indeed intent on staying under the first tax threshold of $237MM in 2024, that gives them just under $27MM of payroll space left to work with this offseason as they look to fill the remaining holes in the lineup and pitching staff. While the addition of Matsui is a step in the right direction that didn’t eat into the club’s financial capabilities too excessively, the Padres clearly still have plenty of work to do before they’re ready to contend in an ever-improving NL West next year.
Padres Release Michel Baez, Jorge Ona
The Padres released right-hander Michel Baez and outfielder Jorge Ona earlier this week according to the transaction section of each player’s MLB.com player page. Neither of the two former big leaguers were still on the club’s 40-man roster and had been in the organization on minor league contracts.
Baez, 28 next month, signed with the Padres out of Cuba prior to the 2017 season and quickly impressed prospect evaluators. Prior to the 2018 season, Baez was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport with some publications even ranking him in the top 30. While Baez was moved to the bullpen in 2019, when he made his big league debut later that year the right-hander appeared to be on track to live up to his potential with an impressive 3.03 ERA in 29 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, that’s not how things worked out as Baez has made just five appearances in the majors since, most recently in 2022.
While injuries, including Tommy John surgery during the 2021 season, have played a role in Baez’s fall from promising prospect to released from the Padres organization entirely, the right-hander has largely struggled at the upper levels of the minors even when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. He’s pitched just 35 innings at the Triple-A level in his career with a brutal 8.23 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, while he owns a career 4.47 ERA in 86 2/3 innings of work at the Double-A level.
Ona, 27 next week, signed out of Cuba as part of the same class as Baez, though he didn’t receive the same fanfare as a prospect. Ona has been dogged by injuries all throughout his career, last reaching even 70 games played in a single season back in 2018. When on the field, however, Ona occasionally showed flashes of potentially including a 25-game stint at the Double-A level back in 2019 where he slashed an impressive .348/.418/.539 in 103 plate appearances.
That strong performance earned Ona a brief cup of coffee at the big league level during the shortened 2020 season, where he managed to hit .250/.400/.583 in 15 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Ona has scarcely taken the field since then with just 422 plate appearances across all levels in the past three seasons, almost all of which have come at the Double-A level. In 2023, Ona managed to get into just 35 games and when on the field slashed a lackluster .218/.301/.391 in 123 trips to the plate.
Now on the open market for the first time in their careers, both Ona and Baez will have the opportunity to either attempt to catch on with another organization at the minor league level or else depart affiliated ball for an independent league or potential overseas opportunities. Baez’s brief flashes of success at the big league level and prospect pedigree could give him better odds of securing another role in affiliated ball than Ona, though its possible the outfielder could be of interest to a team as well if he can prove himself to be healthy enough to handle a full professional season.
Blue Jays Reportedly Sign Paolo Espino
The Blue Jays and right-hander Paolo Espino are in agreement on a contract, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. There are no details on the specifics of the deal, though it’s presumably a minor league pact with an invite to major league Spring Training.
Espino, 37 next month, started his professional career all the way back in 2006 when he was drafted by Cleveland in the 10th round of that year’s draft. He first broke into the big leagues more than a decade later with a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings of work split between the Brewers and Rangers during the 2017 season. Espino was then relegated to the minors for the next two seasons before eventually resurfacing with the Nationals during the 2020 season. Though he pitched just six innings for the club during the shortened season, the performance went reasonably well as he posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.02 FIP with seven strikeouts across two appearances.
That cup of coffee with the Nationals in 2020 kicked off a four-year stint in D.C. that saw Espino relied upon as a swingman for the rebuilding club. Espino appeared in 77 games for the Nationals between 2021 and 2022, drawing 38 starts and pitching 223 innings during that time. While his numbers, while unimpressive, were more or less that which would be expected of a club’s #5 or #6 starter: a 4.56 ERA (88 ERA+) and a 4.70 FIP despite a meager 19.5% strikeout rate thanks in large part to a walk rate of just 5.2%.
Things took a turn for the worse for Espino in 2023. The veteran righty pitched just four innings for the big league club this past season, and was lit up for 11 runs on 14 hits and three walks while striking out just three in that limited time on the mound. Though Espino’s 13 starts at the Triple-A level went better as he posted a 4.33 ERA across 60 1/3 innings of work, Espino’s season came to an end in July when the righty was placed on the injured list due to a flexor strain. The end of his time in the Nationals organization came shortly thereafter, as the club placed Espino on release waivers in early August.
Since then, Espino has made nine starts in the Dominican Winter League, pitching to a strong 2.40 ERA in 48 2/3 innings of work while striking out 25.8% of batters faced. That strong performance clearly caught the attention of the Blue Jays, who decided to take a chance on Espino as a depth option headed into the 2024 season. The club appears set in the rotation with a quintet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Alek Manoah penciled in while the club prepares for the arrival of top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, but Espino could act as a depth option alongside the likes of Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons or perhaps provide competition for Mitch White as the club’s long relief option out of the bullpen.
West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto
The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.
According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.
If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.
More from around MLB’s West divisions…
- While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
- Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
- While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.
Red Sox Reportedly Showing “Strong Interest” In James Paxton
The Red Sox are showing “strong interest” in a reunion with left-hander James Paxton, according Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 35-year-old lefty signed with Boston prior to the 2021 season while rehabbing Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2022 season before making 19 starts for the club in 2023.
Ever since Paxton made his major league debut in 2013, he’s been dogged by injuries throughout his career. In recent years, Paxton has had back surgery in addition to the aforementioned UCL procedure while also spending time on the shelf due to knee, hamstring, and forearm issues. Even in the earlier days of his career, Paxton ranging from a strained pectoral muscle to a left lat strain. Despite those injury concerns, however, Paxton has flashed the potential to be a quality #2 starter when fully healthy. From 2016 to 2019, Paxton made 101 starts and posted a 3.60 ERA and 3.16 FIP with a 28.5% strikeout rate across 568 innings of work.
In the first half of the 2023 season, Paxton appeared to have recaptured that dominant form from earlier in his career. In his first nine starts of the season, Paxton struck out a whopping 31.1% of batters faced while posting a 2.70 ERA and 3.22 FIP over 50 innings of work. Unfortunately, that dominant form did not last throughout the remainder of the season as Paxton’s final ten starts saw him post a 6.46 ERA while he struck out just 18.6% of batters faced in 46 innings of work.
While it’s fair to point out that the veteran lefty’s overall numbers are skewed by a 9 2/3 inning stint that saw him give up a whopping 17 runs (16 earned) before going on the injured list with knee inflammation, even his full-season ERA of 4.50 and strikeout rate of 24.6% paint Paxton as more of a back-end starter than anything else. While it’s certainly possible he could improve upon those numbers with better health in 2024, it seems unwise for the Red Sox to expect him to revert to ace-level production in his age-35 season.
With that being said, Boston would surely benefit from adding more than one starter to its rotation this offseason, which could help to take pressure off young arms like Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock while also helping to reinforce the club’s depth in the event of additional injury woes for Chris Sale. Paxton could therefore be a desirable secondary addition for a Red Sox club that figures to continue its focus on adding a front-end starting pitcher even after missing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this week, particularly considering the left-hander’s previously expressed desire to return to Boston in 2024.