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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors has debuted a new feature for Front Office subscribers with our Trade Deadline Outlook series.  In advance of the July 31 trade deadline, we’re looking at what each of the 30 teams may have in store for their roster construction plans.  This entails buying, selling, or something in between as teams vary between all-in pushes for the 2025 World Series or more long-term looks towards building for the future.

We’ve started by writing about the most clear-cut buyers and sellers, and we’ll turn our attention to the more borderline teams in the mix as July develops.  This landing page will contain the links to every Trade Deadline Outlook post, so be sure to keep checking to see when your favorite team has been featured.

NL West

NL Central

NL East

AL West

AL Central

  • Chicago White Sox
  • Cleveland Guardians
  • Detroit Tigers
  • Kansas City Royals
  • Minnesota Twins

AL East

Reds Place Jake Fraley On 10-Day Injured List

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The Reds activated outfielder Austin Hays from the 10-day injured list yesterday, and placed Jake Fraley on the 10-day IL (retroactive to June 24) in the corresponding move.  Fraley may be facing an extended or even season-ending absence, as the outfielder told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters that he has a partial right labrum tear, even though the Reds officially listed a right shoulder sprain as the reason for his IL placement.

Surgery might be required to fix Fraley’s shoulder, though he is in the process of seeking out what Sheldon describes as a third opinion for what has apparently been a longstanding shoulder problem.  Fraley spent a couple of weeks on the IL due to right shoulder soreness late in the 2021 season when he was still with the Mariners, and he has been dealing with “some achiness” ever since, and that lingering soreness went up a level during a play last season.

“I had a play going into the wall that I jammed up the shoulder,” Fraley said.  “I never went on the IL.  I played through it, still had a good season and it was fine but it was excruciating.”

Fraley hasn’t played since Monday, when he made a diving attempt to try and catch what ended up being a Cody Bellinger double.  He felt the tear might have occurred during that particular play, even though he felt good enough to stay on the field and finish the last two innings of the Reds’ 6-1 win over the Yankees.

“We’re just trying to figure out if it’s something that’s just an old injury that kind of showed its face again,” Fraley said.  “This is something new with the tear in the front.  We’re just trying to figure out the best option for, obviously, me and this season on this team and then as well trying to gauge what is the best thing for me in my career.  Just because it is something that has been chronic and now you’re throwing a tear on top of it.”

This is the second IL stint of the year for Fraley, who missed a little over three weeks dealing with a calf injury in May.  The outfielder is hitting .224/.331/.376 with five home runs over 145 plate appearances, translating to a 96 wRC+ that is virtually identical to the 95 wRC+ that Fraley posted over 382 PA in 2024.  His walk and hard-contact numbers are way up from last year’s stats, yet Fraley only has a .250 BABIP this season, as opposed to the .331 BABIP he enjoyed last season.

Injuries have long been a subplot of Fraley’s career, and it could be that these varied health issues (headlined by this recurring shoulder problem) have limited his production over the last two years.  The Reds have primarily used the left-handed hitting Fraley in a platoon role in their outfield since acquiring the outfielder from Seattle in March 2022, and Fraley’s solid numbers against right-handed pitching have declined since the start of the 2024 campaign.

If a season-ending shoulder surgery is in the cards for Fraley, Cincinnati would still have TJ Friedl, Will Benson, and Gavin Lux as left-handed hitting options for the outfield, with Lux perhaps getting even more time in left field as opposed to playing second or third base.  While the Reds aren’t hurting for depth in terms of pure players available, the club hasn’t gotten much offense from its outfield as a whole this season.  Getting Hays back can help, but since Hays has been on and off the IL himself all year and might see a lot of DH time.

In short, the outfield was already looking like a need for the Reds at the trade deadline, as Cincinnati is looking to boost what has been an overall middling offense.  While the team sits in fourth place in the competitive NL Central, the 43-39 Reds are only five games back of the division-leading Cubs and two games out of the final NL wild card berth, so Cincinnati projects to be a buyer to some extent before the July 31 deadline.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.

Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez

Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Athletics, a team that has been rebuilding for a few years now. They had an aggressive winter ahead of the 2025 campaign and showed some promise early in the season but they have since fallen back and are clearly not out of the rebuild yet.

Record: 33-50 (0.2% playoff probability)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Luis Urías, Sean Newcomb, Gio Urshela, T.J. McFarland, Miguel Andujar, José Leclerc

These guys should all be very much available in the next few weeks, though it's unlikely the A's get a massive return from any of them. Luis Urías should be the most appealing of the bunch. The A's signed him to a one-year, $1.1MM deal in the offseason. He has appeared in 66 games so far this year with seven home runs, a 10% walk rate and 13.3% strikeout rate. His .244/.328/.378 batting line translates to a 102 wRC+. He has mostly played second base in 2025 but has also spent some time at third and has extensive experience at both positions. He's not a superstar, but he's a solid option in a market without a ton of others available, so he should be able to net the A's a prospect or two. Last year, infielders like Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Amed Rosario were flipped for modest returns and Urías could be somewhat similar.

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Arizona Officials Approve Public Funding For Chase Field Renovations

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Arizona governor Katie Hobbs has signed off on legislation committing up to $500MM (plus an annual inflation adjustment) in sales tax revenue over the next 30 years towards Chase Field renovations (link via The Associated Press). The bill had passed the state legislature on Tuesday. Hobbs has been a longtime supporter of the project, so her approval was largely a formality.

The next step is for the organization to agree to a lease extension with Maricopa County. Their current lease at Chase Field runs through 2027. “This could all be for naught if we don’t have a new lease extension, and we’re going to start negotiating that,” D-Backs CEO Derrick Hall told Arizona Sports this week. “I don’t see any issue there.”

The public funding will go towards infrastructure upgrades to the stadium. Hall told Craig Harris of 12 News that improving the air conditioning system and installing a new video board are among the initial priorities. The team has stated that they’ll commit $250MM to the project.

As noted by Arizona Sports’ Alex Weiner, the legislation includes financial penalties if the D-Backs leave Chase Field before 2050. They’d face a $10MM fine for leaving before 2035 with lesser penalties if they leave between 2036-50. In February 2024, when the team was encountering resistance in their pursuit of public funding, owner Ken Kendrick had remarked that they “may run out of time in Phoenix.” They still need to finalize the lease extension but now seem likely to stay for the long haul. Phoenix had lost its NHL team, the Coyotes, in a relocation to Salt Lake City before the 2024-25 NHL season.

Red Sox Evaluating Rotation, First Base Markets

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The Red Sox’s miserable week continued tonight, as they dropped the first game of their weekend set against the Blue Jays by a 9-0 score. The Sox have lost seven of 10 since trading Rafael Devers and are riding a six-game losing streak — tied with Kansas City for the longest active mark in MLB. They’ve fallen three games below .500 at 40-43.

Poorly as they’ve played of late, the Sox are only three games out of a playoff spot. They’re one of six teams within five games of the Mariners, who currently hold the final Wild Card position. The muddled American League leaves every team aside from the White Sox and A’s with at least some hope of getting hot and playing their way out of selling at the deadline. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow maintained immediately after the Devers trade that the front office still expected to operate as buyers. He took a similar approach this evening.

“I think we’ve talked a lot about looking to the future, (but) at some point, the future has to be now,” Breslow told Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “We went into 2025 expecting to compete for the division and expecting to make it to the playoffs. We haven’t played as well as we’re capable of, but that goal still exists, and we’re not so far away that we should be thinking about 2026 or 2027.”

Breslow added that the front office is focused on “(identifying) the needs that we have” over the next month. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that Boston was in the market for both a first baseman and rotation help. Neither is surprising. Their first base plans have been up in the air since Triston Casas sustained a season-ending knee injury. Kristian Campbell has begun playing there in Triple-A, but it’s an unfamiliar position and he hadn’t hit for two months before he was optioned. Journeyman Abraham Toro is holding the role for now. He’s hitting .278/.307/.459 with five homers across 140 trips to the plate while posting below-average defensive grades.

The rotation has been an issue outside of Garrett Crochet’s starts. Brayan Bello has managed a decent ERA despite a poor strikeout/walk profile, which continued tonight. Every other Sox starter has posted an earned run average of 4.21 or higher. Richard Fitts has an ERA pushing 5.00, while Lucas Giolito has yet to post a sub-4.00 mark in any month. Signing Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05MM free agent deal has proven a major misstep. Opponents have teed off on the longtime Dodger for a 6.29 ERA across 13 starts. Buehler has allowed five or more runs in four of his past five appearances.

Kyle Harrison has begun his organizational tenure on optional assignment in Triple-A. Kutter Crawford probably won’t be back this season. Hunter Dobbins recently went down with an elbow strain. Tanner Houck had an ERA north of 8.00 over nine starts before landing on the injured list with a flexor pronator strain. He began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Worcester last week. Houck didn’t complete two innings in either of his first two minor league starts. He gave up a combined five runs on as many hits and four free passes (three walks and a hit batter) while recording just two strikeouts.

The Sox announced today that Houck’s next rehab appearance will come out of the bullpen following an opener. Breslow told WEEI’s Rob Bradford that the decision doesn’t signify a long-term role change, saying they’re simply hoping to “(change) the situation a little bit, (change) his mentality a little bit.” Regardless, it has hardly been an encouraging start to the righty’s rehab work and only increases the urgency to add to the rotation as long as they still feel they’re viable contenders.

Phillies Notes: Kepler, Crawford, Harper

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The Phillies scored just one run over a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros this week. They’re still in strong position at 47-34 but have had a poor month offensively, ranking 25th in scoring. Max Kepler has been among those struggling, as he’s hitting .167/.265/.350 over 68 plate appearances in June.

Kepler was out of the lineup for three consecutive games between June 22-25. The Phils faced left-handed starting pitchers in each contest and wanted to shield the lefty hitter from an unfavorable platoon matchup. That didn’t sit well with Kepler, who told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb on Thursday that he was told he “was going to be the starting left fielder” when he signed a $10MM free agent deal with Philadelphia. He added that not playing every day has impacted his rhythm.

The veteran outfielder doubled down on those comments today. “I signed here being told that I was going to be the starting everyday left fielder,” he told reporters before tonight’s series opener in Atlanta (link via Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer). “That’s why I came here.” Manager Rob Thomson pushed back somewhat about Kepler’s gripe, noting that he’s been in the starting lineup for 60 of the team’s 81 games. He’s making his 61st start tonight, hitting fifth and playing left field against Atlanta righty Bryce Elder.

To be clear, there’s nothing to suggest the relationship between Kepler and Thomson has become untenable. The outfielder said today that if he were pushed into a bench role, he’d “take it on and hope to make the most of it.” It’s nevertheless apparent that he wants more playing time against southpaws. A career .221/.291/.362 hitter against lefty pitching, he has hit .222 with one home run in 49 plate appearances against lefties this year.

The greater concern is that Kepler hasn’t produced with the platoon advantage either. He took a .205/.307/.389 slash against righties into tonight’s contest. Kepler had a solid April but owns a .179/.270/.364 line since the start of May. It’s not all that surprising that Thomson would prefer to get another righty bat into the lineup against left-handers when Kepler isn’t performing. Otto Kemp moved from first base to left field for all three of those appearances, which drew utility infielders Buddy Kennedy or Edmundo Sosa into the lineup.

Kepler’s struggles come at a time when outfield prospect Justin Crawford is hitting in Triple-A. The 21-year-old Crawford, a former first-round pick, has a .332/.408/.435 mark at the top minor league level. The son of Carl Crawford, Justin has minimal power but has excellent speed and has shown improved plate discipline. Gelb writes that the organization is bullish on Crawford despite some other teams questioning his offensive approach. He has a 63% ground-ball rate in the minors, a rate that only Jose Iglesias has topped at the MLB level (minimum 100 plate appearances). Thomson told reporters on Thursday that Crawford has “absolutely” put himself on the radar for a big league call.

It leaves the front office with some interesting decisions a month out from the trade deadline. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said this week that the bullpen was understandably their top priority. He downplayed the possibility of adding to the offense. At the same time, the Phillies have gotten minimal production from both corner outfield spots. Kepler and company haven’t hit well in left; Nick Castellanos has been a solid hitter but remains a defensive liability in right.

They could turn to Crawford, but that’d probably require benching one of Kepler or Castellanos. (Crawford can play center field, but Brandon Marsh has been one of the team’s better hitters following a dismal April.) There’s obviously no guarantee that Crawford would produce in his first look at MLB pitching. The Phillies are in a tight battle with the Mets in the NL East and can’t afford to be too patient if he were to struggle.

The lineup should get a major boost with Bryce Harper’s forthcoming return from a wrist injury. Harper hasn’t played since June 6 but told reporters this afternoon that a return next week is “definitely in play” (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). He took on-field batting practice at Truist Park and is scheduled to hit off a pair of Phils minor league pitchers tomorrow. That could result in a little more outfield playing time for Kemp, their preferred fill-in at first. The 25-year-old rookie hasn’t hit a ton in 17 MLB games — though he did just take Elder deep for his first career home run — but he mashed at a .313/.416/.594 clip in Triple-A.

Blue Jays Release Spencer Turnbull

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The Blue Jays released Spencer Turnbull, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Assuming he clears release waivers, he’ll return to free agency. Toronto had designated the veteran righty for assignment on Wednesday.

Turnbull has over five years of MLB service time and had the right to refuse an outright assignment while retaining his prorated (approximate) $1.27MM salary. The Jays didn’t get much from that modest investment. They were shuttling through fifth starters after losing Max Scherzer to the injured list when they signed Turnbull in early May. He had gone unsigned all winter and wasn’t ready for MLB action, so he spent a little over a month on optional assignment building into game shape in the minors.

By the time Turnbull was ready to be called up, Eric Lauer had impressed the club in a swing role. Lauer subsequently took hold of the fifth starter job and remains in the rotation even after Scherzer’s activation, as Bowden Francis landed on the injured list. Turnbull only made three appearances — two in relief and one abbreviated start — and gave up five runs in 6 1/3 innings. He surrendered 12 hits with four walks and strikeouts apiece.

Despite the shorter stints, Turnbull’s fastball speed was down a tick. He averaged roughly 91 MPH after sitting at 92 as a swingman for the Phillies last season. He pitched well for Philadelphia, working to a 2.65 ERA while striking out 26% of batters faced in 54 1/3 innings. His 2024 season ended when he sustained a lat strain in late June.

Cody Bradford Undergoes Internal Brace Surgery

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June 27: Bradford underwent the internal brace surgery, which comes with a slightly briefer timeline than a full Tommy John repair (relayed by Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports). He’ll still miss a good chunk of the ’26 campaign.

June 24: Left-hander Cody Bradford is going to undergo season-ending elbow surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young informed reporters, including Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports. It’s still not clear if the lefty will require a full Tommy John surgery or the internal brace alternative, but in either case, he’s done for 2025 and will miss most or all of 2026 as well.

It’s obviously an unfortunate blow for the southpaw and the Rangers. The lefty has shown flashes of being a capable big league starter. He debuted in 2023 and posted a 5.30 earned run average over 56 innings in a swing role. Last year, he missed significant time due to a low back strain but still managed to log 76 1/3 innings with a 3.54 ERA, 22.7% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate.

That put him in a good spot to earn a rotation gig in 2025, but that has not come to pass. In the middle of March, he had an MRI due to some elbow soreness, though the imaging came back clean at that time. Nonetheless, the club decided to be cautious and shut him down for four weeks to see how his arm responded. Over the past six weeks, he has been ramping up with bullpens and live batting practice. One week ago, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News relayed that Bradford was on the cusp of a rehab assignment.

Presumably, some renewed soreness or discomfort has popped up in the past week, which then led to further testing and the discovery that surgery will be required. For Bradford personally, that means he won’t get to pitch at all in his age-27 season. Returning in his age-28 campaign is possible but won’t be guaranteed.

He came into 2025 with one year and 86 days of service time. He’s already on the 60-day injured list and will stay there the rest of the year, getting his service clock to 2.086 days in the process. He’ll still be shy of arbitration this winter, so the Rangers will probably keep him on the roster for his rehab, but he’ll need to retake a 40-man spot in the offseason since there’s no IL between the World Series and spring training.

For the Rangers, it’s a hit to their rotation depth for the rest of this year and for 2026 as well. They currently have a starting group consisting of Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, with both Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle having hit the IL this month. Jacob Latz has been working a multi-inning role and is making a spot start today. The club is expecting Eovaldi back on this weekend, which could push Latz or Dane Dunning to the minors, with the other in a long relief role.

Going into the deadline, it’s possible the club looks to add to that group. Corbin is more of a serviceable back-end guy these days than the type of arm a club would want starting a playoff game. Leiter and Rocker are both fairly inexperienced with middling results in the big leagues thus far. deGrom and Eovaldi each have great numbers on the year but each has a checkered injury history and is north of 35 years old.

Mahle and Jon Gray could get back in the mix if they recover from their current ailments, though it’s doesn’t appear either is especially close. Mahle has been out for over a week due to shoulder fatigue and will get a follow-up MRI soon, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Gray has been out all season with a wrist fracture and still has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

The health and performance of the group will naturally impact the deadline plans. The club’s record will certainly be a factor as well. They are currently 38-41, which puts them just three games back of a playoff spot, but with several teams bunched together in the American League Wild Card race. The club has also been trying to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, though Leody Taveras getting claimed off waivers by the Mariners earlier this year gave them some notable wiggle room there.

Looking ahead to 2026, Corbin, Mahle and Gray are both impending free agents. That leaves the on-paper rotation as deGrom, Eovaldi, Rocker and Leiter. Prior to today’s news, Bradford could have been in that mix though he now won’t be a factor until partway through the season even in a best-case scenario.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Outright Aramis Garcia

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June 27: Garcia was outrighted back to Reno, per the MLB.com transaction log. He’ll have the right to elect free agency but may decide to accept the assignment as he did earlier in the year.

June 23: The Diamondbacks have announced their signing of catcher James McCann, which was reported yesterday. Fellow backstop Aramis Garcia has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Garcia, 32, went 0-for-4 in his limited time with the D-backs. Arizona selected him to the 40-man roster last week after Gabriel Moreno was placed on the injured list due to a broken finger. It appeared as though he might get a bit of runtime with Jose Herrera — typically Moreno’s backup — struggling in an increased role since Moreno was first banged up. Instead, the D-backs scooped up the veteran McCann, who’s been playing with Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate but had a rolling opt-out/upward mobility clause in his minor league deal there.

Garcia has played in parts of six major league seasons and carries a career .208/.245/.321 batting line in 331 trips to the plate. He hit well with the Diamondbacks’ top minor league affiliate in Reno this year, slashing .250/.399/.524 in 38 games. Garcia is a lifetime .235/.306/.430 hitter in parts of seven Triple-A seasons.

This is the second time the D-backs have designated Garcia for assignment this year. He cleared waivers the first time and accepted an outright assignment back to Reno. Arizona will have five days to trade him before he has to be placed on waivers, although he can be placed on waivers at any point prior to that as well. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so we’ll know within a week’s time how his latest DFA will play out. If Garcia again passes through waivers unclaimed, he’ll have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency (although he also had that right last time around and opted to stick with the D-backs).

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