The Opener: NLCS, ALCS, Scherzer
With a couple of postseason games on the docket, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:
1. NLCS Game 3:
After a rough couple of games at Citizens Bank Park, the Diamondbacks are headed home to Chase Field. The change of scenery could be just what they need to regain their momentum and slow down the red-hot Phillies. Across the regular season and the playoffs, Philadelphia has gone 55-32 (.632) at home this season. However, they’ve been far more vulnerable on the road, with a 42-41 (.506) record.
The rookie Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona, while Ranger Suárez takes the hill for Philadelphia. Pfaadt has looked capable in his first two postseason outings, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in seven innings of work. Suárez, however, is starting to look like a playoff legend in the making, with a career 1.16 ERA in 23 1/3 innings over the past two postseasons.
While D-backs manager Torey Lovullo has kept Pfaadt on a short leash thus far, he might have to ride his no. 3 starter a little harder this time around. The team is planning a bullpen game for Game 4, so Lovullo would surely like to give his relievers a little rest today. At the same time, he will need to be aggressive to avoid putting his team in a 3-0 hole. It will be a difficult balancing act for the longtime Diamondbacks skipper.
First pitch is set for 4:07 pm CT.
2. ALCS Game 4:
Following a momentum-shifting 8-5 victory in Game 3, the Astros will look to even up the series with the Rangers tonight at Globe Life Field. Meanwhile, the Rangers will look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the postseason.
Andrew Heaney will take the mound for Texas against José Urquidy of Houston in a battle between two starters who have moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this season. Neither looked as sharp in 2023 as he did the year before, but both pitched well in their first postseason outings. Heaney held the Orioles to one run in 3 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS, while Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a series-clinching Game 4 victory over the Twins.
The game begins at 7:03 pm CT.
3. Scherzer struggles in his return:
Max Scherzer wasn’t exactly sharp in his return to the mound on Wednesday, giving up five runs in four innings against the Astros. The veteran starter had not pitched in over a month, and he made a remarkably speedy return from a teres major strain, so one can hardly blame him for looking a little rusty. Still, the Rangers need more from the eight-time All-Star if they’re going to hand him the ball in a potential ALCS Game 7.
On a positive note, manager Bruce Bochy had enough confidence in Scherzer to let him finish four innings despite his struggles. After the game, Scherzer told reporters (including Julia Kreuz of MLB.com) that his arm felt “really good” and that it “responded well.” However, the Rangers will surely keep close tabs on the future Hall of Famer in the coming days, before Bochy makes any decisions about his potential Game 7 starter.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Red Sox continue their search for a general manager (1:05)
- Kim Ng and the Marlins part ways (4:10)
- Brandon Woodruff might miss all of 2024 with shoulder injury (9:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What is one team you anticipate will aggressively attempt to contend this season but believe should focus on rebuilding, and one club you expect to act passively during the offseason but think should make a more concerted effort to contend? (15:45)
- The Pirates’ competitive window should start to open in 2024 but they badly need to address 1B and SP this winter. I’ve talked myself into Ty France (if Dipoto feels the need to upgrade there) and Patrick Sandoval (if the Angels decide to blow it up) as being great fits. Do you like those options or have any other names that could wind up in Pittsburgh? (20:00)
- To me it seems to be very futile to have great success in the 162 game grind, win your division (by a large margin often) and lose to a lesser team. I get it that baseball is all about who’s hot at the moment but when the best all get upset in the beginning of the playoffs it does give one pause. There surely should be more advantage/reward for regular season achievements. (22:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
- Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here
- Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild — listen here
Reds Notes: Graupe, Coaching Staff, Deadline Approach, Fraley
The Reds are promoting Jeff Graupe from vice president of player acquisition/strategy to assistant general manager, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic (X link). He joins Sam Grossman as holders of the AGM title. Graupe receives the bump a few weeks after the promotion of Brad Meador from AGM to general manager, a move that solidified Meador as the #2 in the front office hierarchy behind president of baseball operations Nick Krall.
Graupe has been working in the organization in one role or another for the past 18 years. He’d also served as senior director of player personnel and senior director of player development before holding his VP title.
The continuity in leadership extends to the coaching staff. Krall told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via X) that all of their coaches will return in 2024. David Bell will be back for a sixth season as manager. The 51-year-old skipper signed a midseason extension that keeps him under contract through 2026.
Krall also revisited the club’s quiet trade deadline. Asked by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer whether he feels in retrospect the front office should have done more to aid their playoff push, the front office head said he “(doesn’t) have any regrets not doing anything.” Krall added that he felt the asking price on impending free agents and/or “shorter-term assets” wasn’t prudent.
With a couple of Wild Card clubs playing in the NLCS, one can question the Reds’ deadline approach. Sitting in the top Wild Card spot at the end of July, Cincinnati only made one move, acquiring left-handed reliever Sam Moll from the A’s for right-hander Joe Boyle. It was surprising the front office didn’t add to the rotation, in particular, as Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo were injured and the team was largely reliant on an inexperienced starting staff.
Cincinnati went 23-31 after the deadline, finishing two games out of a postseason berth. Whether the team’s fortunes would have been different had the Reds been more aggressive in July obviously can’t be known. (The D-Backs succeeded despite also coming up empty in their search for rotation help, although they did add closer Paul Sewald.) Krall and his staff are hopeful the progress shown this year lays the foundation for sustained success in 2024 and beyond.
In on-field news, left fielder Jake Fraley underwent surgery last week to repair a fractured toe on his left foot, relays Sheldon. Fraley had played through the injury and told reporters in August that he was going to require an offseason procedure. He’s expected to be full-go for Spring Training. The left-handed hitter put up a .256/.339/.443 line in 380 plate appearances this past season.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
A relatively quiet offseason a year ago didn’t stop the Dodgers from continuing their incredible run of regular season success. But after another disappointing playoff performance, perhaps they will be more aggressive this winter. There are many ways to do that, but the big question is whether or not they land the most unique free agent in history.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mookie Betts, IF/OF: $295MM through 2032
- Freddie Freeman, 1B: $108MM through 2027
- Chris Taylor, 1B/OF: $30MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option)
- Miguel Rojas, IF: $6MM through 2024 (includes buyout on ’25 option)
- Tony Gonsolin, RHP: $5.4MM through 2024 (eligible for two more arbitration years after that)
- Austin Barnes, C: $3.5MM through 2024 (includes ’25 option with no buyout)
Option Decisions
- Club holds $18MM option on RHP Lance Lynn with $1MM buyout
- Club holds $14MM option on IF Max Muncy with no buyout
- Club holds $9.5MM option on RHP Joe Kelly with $1MM buyout
- Club holds $6.5MM option on RHP Daniel Hudson with no buyout
- Club holds $3MM buyout on RHP Alex Reyes with $100K buyout
- Club holds option between $1MM and $7MM on Blake Treinen, depending on health
2024 financial commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $98.9MM
Total future commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $461.9MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Walker Buehler (5.168): $8.03MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (5.117): $3.8MM
- Caleb Ferguson (5.093): $2.3MM
- Yency Almonte (4.143): $1.9MM
- Will Smith (4.090): $9.3MM
- Dustin May (4.059): $2.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (3.167): $2.5MM
- Wander Suero (3.144): $900K
- Evan Phillips (3.136): $3.4MM
- Gavin Lux (3.114): $1.1MM
- J.P. Feyereisen (3.108): $1MM
- Alex Vesia (3.078): $1.2MM
- Victor González (3.058): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Yarbrough, Almonte, Suero
Free Agents
- Clayton Kershaw, Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez, Julio Urías, Ryan Brasier, Shelby Miller, Jake Marisnick, Amed Rosario, David Peralta, Kolten Wong, Enrique Hernández, Jimmy Nelson
The Dodgers had a fairly quiet offseason after 2022, limiting themselves to one-year free agents like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez. That led some observers to predict that they could be dethroned in the West by the Padres, who had a far louder winter, or perhaps an upstart Diamondbacks club. But the Dodgers had yet another excellent season, winning 100 games for the fourth straight full season and fifth out of the last six. They won the West division title for the 10th time out of the last 11 seasons, with their only second-place finish being the 106-win club in 2021 getting edged out by the 107-win Giants.
There’s no question they’ve been the most consistently good regular season club over the past decade-plus, but the postseason is another matter. All of those playoff berths have resulted in just one title, which was in the shortened 2020 season, and they’ve been quickly bounced out of the NLDS in each of their past two trips.
Perhaps that will lead the club to make some more noise this winter, which they have the ability to do. They’ve been one of the top spenders in the past decade but have generally avoided long-term commitments. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players under contract beyond 2025 and each of those two are continuing to play at MVP-caliber levels, meaning there’s almost no dead money on the books.
In terms of 2024, Roster Resource estimates their current payroll around $126MM, which includes the MLBTR arbitration projections. A few non-tenders could drop that closer to $120MM, particularly if they let go of Yarbrough, who was cut by the Rays at this time a year ago. Their luxury tax figure would be under $140MM if they did indeed cut Yarbrough. That gives the Dodgers plenty of room to be aggressive this winter, as they have frequently run Opening Day payrolls in the $240-280MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to reset their luxury tax status after paying the tax in the past two years, they could add about $100MM before getting near this year’s $237MM base threshold.
The Dodgers are likely to be one of many teams drawing up two distinct offseason plans, one that involves signing Shohei Ohtani and one that doesn’t. The most unique player in baseball history is about to become the most unique free agent in baseball history, with many pegging the Dodgers the most likely landing spot. Ohtani has frequently mentioned a desire to win as a priority and the Dodgers would have a compelling case in that department.
Of course, Ohtani will surely want to be compensated at a fair rate as well, but there’s nothing preventing the Dodgers from doing that. As mentioned, they have plenty of spending room both for the coming year and well into the future. It has been speculated that Ohtani might lean towards a West Coast club, since that was his preference when first coming over from Japan. At that time, he was limited by the amateur bonus pool system and was only going to be able to pull in a few million bucks, meaning that such a preference wouldn’t impact his earning power. Now he will be motivated to express an interest in any club, as expanding his market will help him secure the biggest possible guarantee. But if he privately holds onto that West Coast preference, it would only help the Dodgers.
It’s possible there are other factors that could work against them, at least speculatively. Ohtani hasn’t interacted with English-language media very much during his time as an Angel, at least compared to other superstars in the game. It has been speculated that moving to a bigger market club would make it harder for him to maintain that relative spotlight reluctance. Whether that’s something that actually matters to him can’t really be known.
There’s also the question of Ohtani’s leash to continue pitching deeper into his career. There’s no precedent for anything Ohtani does and different clubs will probably have different ideas about how long they want him to continue with the full two-way workload. Now that he’s coming off a second career Tommy John surgery, or something close to it, that only raises further questions about how he will hold up into his 30s. Some clubs may want to give him free rein to start for as long as he wants, others might have ideas about when a move to the bullpen will be warranted or when it would be time to stop pitching altogether. If the pitching eventually needs to stop, some clubs may view him as a viable outfielder, a position he played in Japan. Others might prefer to just keep him as a designated hitter as he ages.
It’s can’t really be known how the Dodgers view these matters, but these are things that will likely come up in offseason discussions with Ohtani and his reps. Ohtani is hitting free agency ahead of his age-29 season, two years younger than Aaron Judge was before his free agency. Since Judge was able to secure a nine-year deal, Ohtani will very likely be able to get into the double digits. Even though he’ll be a DH only in 2024, teams will undoubtedly be enticed by his potential return to being a two-way player, as well as the international marketing opportunities he can provide. But in the short-term, the free agency of Martinez means that the Dodgers have an open DH spot they can easily slot Ohtani into.
Gauging Ohtani’s interest in being a Dodger figures to be the number one priority for the club, with everything else following from there. But there will be some formalities that have to come first, with a large number of club options on the table. Each of Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes missed all or most of 2023 due to injuries and should have their options declined. The Dodgers are generally unafraid of banking on their injured players but would likely work out new deals with any of this group they wanted to take another chance on.
The net $8.5MM decision on Joe Kelly is borderline, but the club would likely prefer to keep that powder dry for now, with the ability to circle back to Kelly or someone similar later in the winter. Max Muncy is a lock to have his option picked up, despite the low batting average and high strikeouts. He launched 36 home runs this year and walked in 14.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and 2.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. Though he was able to nudge the option price up to $14MM by reaching plate appearance escalators, it’s still a bargain. Lance Lynn is likely to be bought out after posting a 5.73 earned run average this year.
The Dodgers will be looking to replace some thump in their lineup, whether they sign Ohtani or not, even though Betts and Freeman will each be back. Martinez and Jason Heyward each had solid bounceback years, but both are now set to return to free agency. Martinez has yet to receive a qualifying offer in his career and the Dodgers could offer him one, but there are reasons they may not do so. Martinez settled for a one-year, $10MM to join the Dodgers a year ago and this year’s qualifying offer is expected to go over $20MM. That kind of pay raise might be tempting for a 36-year-old designated hitter. But the Dodgers may not want to risk that since players who accept a qualifying offer can’t be traded until June 15. Having both Martinez and Ohtani on the same club isn’t possible with just one DH slot, so the Dodgers probably can’t take a chance by putting the offer in front of Martinez.
But Martinez will likely want to wait on Ohtani before deciding where to sign, since many clubs may have him as a backup option. That means the Dodgers may be able to circle back to him if they don’t end up landing Ohtani. Other players who may be in a similar boat include Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt or old friends Justin Turner and Joc Pederson.
Replacing Heyward may not be as necessary. Betts spent a lot of time on the infield this year with Gavin Lux suffering a season-ending knee injury in Spring Training. If Lux is healthy enough to rejoin the middle infield next year, Betts can go back to being a primary right fielder next to center fielder James Outman. Left field will still be a question mark, but the club would have some internal options there with Chris Taylor, Andy Pages and Jonny Deluca some of them. It might be possible to fit Heyward in there, but he may have cleaner paths to playing time elsewhere.
On the infield, Freeman and Muncy should have the corners largely spoken for. The middle infield is a bit less certain, with the aforementioned Lux situation the major unanswered question. The club was planning to give him a shot to be an everyday shortstop before his injury. Whether that plan is back on the table remains to be seen. If he is able to secure the shortstop job, he could push Miguel Rojas to second base or perhaps into a depth role. Or perhaps Lux sticks at the less-demanding second base spot going forward. There are also prospects looming, with Michael Busch and Jorbit Vivas some of those potentially in the mix for the keystone. Since the free agent market doesn’t have too much to offer anyway, the Dodgers might stick with internal candidates here as well, though the trade market theoretically offers players like Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan.
The catching spot seems fine with Will Smith having another strong season in 2023. Austin Barnes wasn’t great at the plate in 2023 but is already under contract and still got good marks for his framing. Cutting him loose and signing a veteran backup wouldn’t be shocking, but it wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources when the club has bigger priorities elsewhere.
Outside of the Ohtani question, the big focus for the Dodgers this winter will be the starting pitching. This year saw the pitching injuries pile up, and Julio Urías become unavailable due to a domestic violence situation, with the diminished rotation arguably serving as the club’s unraveling. They tried to patch things together by trading for Lynn, Yarbrough and Eduardo Rodriguez, but E-Rod used his no-trade clause to stay with the Tigers while Lynn wasn’t able to salvage his rough season as hoped. The club can keep Lynn around but $17MM for the age-37 season of a pitcher who just allowed 44 homers is fairly steep.
Both Urías and Clayton Kershaw are set to become free agents, and some of the pitching injuries will carry over into next year. Dustin May will likely miss the first half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in July. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John later in the year and will likely miss the entire 2024 season. That leaves the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own Tommy John, atop their depth chart. Bobby Miller likely earned a spot after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2023. Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone could compete for jobs as well but it’s arguable that none of them did enough to be guaranteed a gig.
That could position the Dodgers to seek out as many as three starting pitchers this offseason. One of them could be Kershaw coming back, though that’s become an annual question in recent years. The two most recent offseasons have seen him deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. Though he eventually returned to the Dodgers in each instance, it seems there’s less confidence in that path this year. His velocity dipped as he battled shoulder issues this year and he indicated he might take a few months before making his choice about 2024.
Even if the Dodgers land Ohtani, he won’t help the rotation since he won’t be pitching in 2024. The Dodgers have the spending capacity to play at any level of free agency, but it’s possible that their level of spending in this aisle is contingent on what happens with Ohtani and Kershaw. The top of the market will feature guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola, with each of them looking at nine-figure deals. Then there’s also solid guys at a lower tier, such as Seth Lugo or old friend Kenta Maeda, as well as bounceback candidates like Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas.
The trade market is another area the club could explore, though this path is a little trickier. Brandon Woodruff is out for most or perhaps all of 2024, which might mean the Brewers take Corbin Burnes off the market. Other theoretical trade candidates may be hard to pry loose as well, with the White Sox seemingly hoping to contend and therefore likely holding Dylan Cease. Perhaps Shane Bieber can be freed from Cleveland, but his stock is down after a bit of an uninspiring year and a late-season battle with elbow inflammation. The Pirates are probably looking to hold Mitch Keller as they try to build off some encouraging performances in 2023.
The bullpen is likely less of a priority, with plenty of strong arms still under club control next year. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzálezand Alex Vesia all had good results in one way or another and each can be retained via affordable arbitration salaries. Adding a couple of veteran free agents to the group should be on the table, but the level of aggressiveness will likely be dictated by how the other priorities are addressed.
All signs point towards a bigger offseason for the Dodgers this year, though that could take a few different shapes. Maybe they can sign Ohtani or maybe they can’t. Maybe Kershaw comes back or maybe he doesn’t. Whether those guys are involved or not, the club will need to add to the rotation and the lineup. But there may not be any club with as much spending capacity this winter, meaning there’s a good chance this offseason looks very different from the last one.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Dodgers-centric chat on 10-19-23. Click here to read the transcript.
Nationals Outright Blake Rutherford, Michael Chavis
The Nationals have taken a trio of players off the 40-man roster. Infielder Michael Chavis, outfielder Blake Rutherford and reliever Hobie Harris all cleared outright waivers, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (X link). Rutherford and Chavis have elected minor league free agency, as is their right as players who have been outrighted multiple times in their careers.
Chavis signed a minor league pact with the Nats last offseason. He made the Opening Day roster and ultimately in 48 games as a depth infielder. Over 96 plate appearances, the former highly-regarded Red Sox prospect hit .242/.281/.341 with a pair of home runs. He struck out at a 34.4% clip.
The 28-year-old has appeared in parts of five seasons at the highest level. He logged 129 games with the Pirates a year ago, his heaviest workload to date. Chavis is a career .238/.283/.401 hitter in a little under 1200 trips to the dish. He can play any of first, second or third base. He would have been eligible for arbitration had the Nats kept him on the roster. Now that he’s back on the open market, he could find minor league interest this winter.
Rutherford is a former Yankees first-round draftee who reached the big leagues this past season. The lefty-swinging outfielder had hit .336/.393/.571 in 74 games between Washington’s top two affiliates after singing an offseason minor league deal. The 26-year-old was selected to the majors for the first time in early August. He got into 16 games, hitting .171/.194/.171 across 36 plate appearances.
Harris is also a one-time Yankee draft choice who debuted with Washington in 2023. The 30-year-old righty pitched in 16 games, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) through 19 1/3 innings. He walked 13 while striking out nine. Harris had a 5.57 ERA while striking out 15.2% of batters faced across 32 1/3 frames at Triple-A Rochester. This is his first career outright, but he has sufficient minor league service time to become a free agent at the start of the offseason.
Washington needed to clear three 40-man spots within five days of the end of the World Series to clear space for players returning from the 60-day injured list. They’ll go into the winter with the roster at capacity.
Reds Outright Ben Lively
Right-handed pitcher Ben Lively has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A, the Reds announced on Wednesday. He does not have the necessary service time to reject the outright assignment immediately, but he will have the opportunity to elect minor league free agency following the conclusion of the World Series.
Lively is the sixth player the Reds have outrighted this offseason, following Vladimir Gutierrez, Alan Busenitz, Justin Dunn, Brett Kennedy, and Connor Overton. However, he is the most noteworthy of the outright decisions, having played a significant role for the major league club in 2023. The 31-year-old ranked sixth on the team with 88 2/3 innings pitched. Appearing in his first MLB season since 2019, Lively pitched in 19 games (12 starts), posting a poor 5.38 ERA but a more respectable 4.33 SIERA.
After three seasons in the KBO, Lively returned to MLB in 2022 on a minor-league deal with the Reds – the team that first drafted him back in 2014. He spent the season at Triple-A and re-upped with Cincinnati the following winter. Finally, in mid-May 2023, more than four years since he last threw a pitch in the majors, Lively had his contract selected by the big league team. Unfortunately, a couple of stints on the injured list interrupted his comeback season, and as evidenced by his inflated ERA, the righty never quite found his groove.
While his 2023 stat line isn’t overly impressive, Lively proved he can still eat innings at the major league level. On top of that, a few of his underlying metrics (3.16 K/BB, 4.42 xFIP) suggest he might be capable of a little more. Thus, he should have some suitors this winter, although he may have to settle for another minor league deal.
AL East Notes: Ryu, Wells, Yankees
Hyun Jin Ryu isn’t ready to say goodbye to Major League Baseball. Speaking with Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, the 36-year-old pitcher didn’t offer much insight about his impending free agency, saying, “I don’t know what to tell you at this point. I think we’ll have to wait and see. Only time will tell.” However, while his comments weren’t very revealing, they make it sound like he isn’t planning to retire, at least without testing the waters of free agency first.
To that end, Ryu reconfirmed that when he is ready to leave MLB, he will return to the KBO to finish his career with the Hanwha Eagles. He played for the Eagles from ages 19 to 25. “I haven’t changed my mind on that,” he said. “I will absolutely make that happen.” Once again, his response implies that retirement isn’t on his mind quite yet.
Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract with the Blue Jays ahead of the 2020 season. The southpaw excelled during the first year of the deal, pitching to a 2.69 ERA and finishing third in voting for the AL Cy Young. He was solid but hardly ace-like the following season, posting a 4.37 ERA in 31 starts. Unfortunately, his next two campaigns were marred by injury. Ryu needed Tommy John surgery last summer, and he made just 17 starts from 2022-23. He was serviceable upon his return, rejoining the Blue Jays rotation for August and September, but his underlying numbers were worrisome (17% strikeout rate, 4.70 SIERA), and he failed to make the roster for the AL Wild Card Series.
Ryu will be 37 next season, but given his long track record of success and his dominant run from 2018-20, he should draw some interest this winter. If he doesn’t receive any offers to his liking, perhaps he’ll consider heading back to the KBO, but at least for now, it seems like he’s planning to pitch another MLB season in 2024.
In other news from the AL East…
- Tyler Wells lost his job in the Orioles’ rotation this summer. He was optioned just ahead of the trade deadline, and he transitioned to a relief role at Triple-A. About eight weeks later, the towering right-hander earned a call-up back to the big leagues, where he made four scoreless appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen. He made three more scoreless appearances in the playoffs, taking the mound in all three of Baltimore’s ALDS games. Yet in spite of his success out of the ‘pen, the Orioles are expecting Wells to rejoin the starting rotation in 2024, according to Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com. In 20 starts last year, the 29-year-old pitched to a 3.98 ERA and a 4.28 SIERA. However, he looked much stronger over the first three months of the season before he ran out of gas in July. With another year of big league experience under his belt, the Orioles will hope he can stick around for a full season in the rotation.
- In the latest edition of his Yankees Beat newsletter, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com touched on the team’s surplus of options in the middle infield. He suggests the Yankees could look to trade Gleyber Torres, but the possibility of dealing Oswald Peraza is not up for discussion. Torres is a talented second baseman, but he’s a known quantity at this point, whereas Peraza has untapped potential at the plate and in the field. What’s more, the Yankees only have one year of team control remaining over Torres, while Peraza won’t even be eligible for arbitration for at least three more seasons.
Kim Ng Preferred Justin Turner To Jean Segura Last Offseason
Former Marlins GM Kim Ng remains a popular topic of conversation around baseball, following her surprise departure from the organization earlier this week. This morning, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provided some insight into one of Ng’s worst errors of judgment during her tenure in Miami: signing Jean Segura to a two-year, $17MM deal last winter. According to Jackson, the executive wanted Justin Turner to play third base for the Marlins in 2023, but she was forced to change gears and pursue Segura after Turner signed with the Red Sox.
From 2020-22, Segura was an above-average hitter and a capable infield defender for the Phillies. However, the 33-year-old struggled tremendously in 2023, hitting .219 with a 52 wRC+ in 85 games for the Marlins. He also had trouble on the other side of the ball, committing 10 errors and compiling -9 Defensive Runs Saved and -4 Outs Above Average. With -1.3 FanGraphs WAR, the former All-Star was one of the least valuable players in the National League. Ultimately, the Marlins dealt Segura to the Guardians at the deadline, and Cleveland released him the same day. He has not played professional baseball since.
Turner, on the other hand, played a solid campaign for the Red Sox. His 114 wRC+ was his lowest since 2013, but he set a new career-high in plate appearances and RBI. In 146 games, he smacked 23 home runs and put the ball in play at an elite rate, finishing with the seventh-highest contact rate in the American League. That said, it’s worth mentioning that he took most of his reps at DH and first base. The 38-year-old played just 58 games in the field and only seven at the hot corner. He made three errors in 57 innings at third base, so it’s fair to wonder if he could have handled the position on a full-time basis for Miami.
It isn’t news that the Marlins were interested in Turner last winter, but Jackson’s report clarifies why they wound up with Segura instead. This new information paints Ng’s decision to sign Segura in a more positive light – he wasn’t her first choice, after all – although if she so strongly preferred Turner, it’s hard to imagine she couldn’t have beat Boston’s offer. Turner signed for two years and $21.7MM guaranteed, only $2.35MM more per year than Segura would command.
More to the point, while signing Turner might have gotten the Marlins more bang for their buck, Ng would eventually find a way to right her wrongs. She flipped Segura to the Guardians for Josh Bell, who played an instrumental role in Miami’s run to the playoffs. Moreover, she traded for Jake Burger of the White Sox, who now looks like the Marlins’ third baseman of the future. All front office executives sign bad contracts from time to time, and to her credit, Ng did an excellent job turning things around. Indeed, if the Marlins had signed Turner instead of Segura, they might not have traded for Bell or Burger, and their improbable postseason run might never have happened.
Mets Will Pursue External Candidates for Managerial Opening
Once David Stearns was officially in place as the president of baseball operations for the Mets, it wasn’t long before he had to answer questions about the team’s managerial opening. After all, firing manager Buck Showalter was the executive’s first major decision in his new role.
During his introductory press conference, Stearns told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that he didn’t have anyone in mind just yet, and the team would “cast a wide net” in search of a new manager. In recent days, however, he has begun to narrow the field. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Mets will only look outside the organization to hire a replacement for Showalter. That takes candidates like bench coach Eric Chavez and third base coach Joey Cora out of the running. As Sammon notes, Carlos Beltrán is another name to come off the table. Beltrán, who briefly served as the Mets manager during the 2019-20 offseason, re-signed with the team as a special assistant to the GM earlier this year.
It’s not surprising that Stearns wants to hire from outside the organization. Other than Beltrán, there aren’t any obvious internal candidates, and what’s more, it’s quite common for a new executive to bring in a manager of his choosing.
The name most frequently mentioned in speculation thus far has been Brewers manager Craig Counsell, although the Mets cannot formally consider Counsell until his contract with Milwaukee expires at the end of October. Still, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Monday that the Mets have “a reasonable chance” to sign the long-time Brewers manager this offseason. It’s more than a reasonable fit; Counsell worked under Stearns in Milwaukee for seven years. What’s more, Heyman cites a source who claims Counsell is looking to be paid “what he believes is fair.” Either team could afford to pay Counsell the salary he’s looking for, but recent history suggests the Mets are far more willing to spend.
Other potential contenders include Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Brewers bench coach Pat Murphy, and Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski. Two years ago, Espada was a candidate for the job that eventually went to Showalter, and he has interviewed for numerous other managerial openings around baseball. Meanwhile, Murphy worked with Stearns in Milwaukee for seven seasons, and he interviewed for the Mets managerial position back in 2019. He could be a consolation prize of sorts if the Mets cannot tempt Counsell away from the Brewers. Finally, Budzinski doesn’t have as clear a connection to New York, but Scott Mitchell of TSN reports that he is in consideration for the job.
While Stearns previously claimed he was open to hiring a first-time manager, the fact that he’s limiting the search to external candidates might suggest he prefers someone with more experience. If that is true, several options will be available, including Counsell, former Giants and Phillies manager Gabe Kapler, and Astros manager Dusty Baker, whose contract expires at the end of the season. Ultimately, however, the Mets remain tight-lipped about any and all candidates they’re considering for the position.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Atlanta Braves
In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a Braves-specific chat. Click here to read the transcript.