Nico Hoerner Is Already Making His Extension Look Good
When the Cubs announced that they had agreed to terms with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a three-year contract extension on the eve of Opening Day back in March, the deal was regarded as a somewhat surprising one around the league. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco at the time of the deal, it’s unusual for a player to sign an extension that buys out just one free agent year once eligible for arbitration. The deal that Hoerner and the Cubs agreed upon did just that, however: the deal covers the 2024-26 campaigns, buying out Hoerner’s final two years of arbitration and his first year as a free agent for a total guarantee of $35MM.
That’s a fairly hefty sum for a player who was making just over $2.5MM for the 2023 season after his first trip through arbitration. Hoerner was coming off a strong season as the club’s starting shortstop in 2022, where he accumulated 4.0 fWAR thanks to strong defense at short combined with offense that was just a touch above league average (106 wRC+). Impressive as that season was, there were plenty of questions about whether or not he would be able to replicate his 2022. Hoerner had struggled badly with injuries in 2021, missing three months with forearm, hamstring, and oblique issues. What’s more, the club’s offseason signing of Dansby Swanson pushed Hoerner to second base, where his strong defense would be less valuable. Given those question marks, it was fair to wonder if the Cubs were overvaluing their former first-round pick.
Fortunately for both sides, Hoerner’s 2023 campaign was a major step toward quieting any doubts regarding the decision to extend him. Concerns about Hoerner as an injury-prone player were surely quieted by him following up a 135-game campaign last year by spending just eleven days of the season on the IL with 150 games played and a whopping 688 plate appearances, one more than his 2021 and ’22 seasons combined.
The similar sample sizes demonstrate how consistent Hoerner’s production with the bat has been. After slashing .286/.341/.400 (106 wRC+) in 2021-22, Hoerner’s 2023 season was virtually identical with a slash line of .283/.346/.383 with a wRC+ of 102. Though his power dipped slightly, he made up for it by walking at an improved 7.1% clip while posting a phenomenal 12.1% strikeout rate. Only seven qualified hitters struck out less often than Hoerner in 2023, and of them only Luis Arraez, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Alex Bregman posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+. His 88.6% contact rate was third best in baseball this year, behind only Arraez and Steven Kwan.
Hoerner’s defense has been similarly consistent. His glovework at shortstop last year was strong in 2022, with +10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fielding Bible and +13 Outs Above Average per Statcast. After moving to second this year, however, his defense has received even stronger marks. His +14 DRS in 2023 is the ninth-best figure among all infielders this season, while his +15 OAA ranks eighth among qualified infielders. Only Swanson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andres Gimenez posted better marks than Hoerner according to both metrics this year.
In addition to repeating the elite strikeout rate and middle infield defense that made the Cubs want to extend him in the first place, Hoerner’s added another dimension to his game this year by becoming one of the top base stealing threats in the majors. After stealing 20 bases in 2022, the 26-year-old took his baserunning to another level this season by swiping 43 bags, fifth-most in the majors, in just 50 attempts. According to Fangraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, Hoerner’s 9.7 figure was second best in all of the major leagues behind only rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who became just the sixth player this century to steal 50 bases in his rookie season.
Taking Hoerner’s defense, contract ability, and baserunning together, his 2023 campaign was worth 4.7 fWAR, tied with Yandy Diaz and Cal Raleigh for the 22nd-best figure in the sport. If Hoerner is able to keep up anything close to this level of production over the life of his extension, a deal that left many scratching their heads at the start of the season will look like an excellent gamble by Chicago’s front office, and Hoerner could find himself in line for a much larger payday following the 2026 season, when he’ll still be just 29 years old.
Injury Notes: Scherzer, Kirilloff, Moreno
Rangers ace Max Scherzer was thought to be done for the season as recently as last month due to a teres major strain, but the veteran righty has spent the postseason to this point rehabbing the injury with the hope of returning in time to impact the pennant chase in Texas. With the Rangers now poised to face the Astros in the ALCS starting this weekend, Scherzer’s rehab appears to be in the best place its been to this point. In conversation with reporters, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that Scherzer’s 60-pitch simulated game yesterday left him feeling “real encouraged” regarding the future Hall of Famer’s health entering the upcoming series. Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today adds that Bochy indicated Scherzer would be a starting pitcher for the club if he is well enough to make the roster.
The news is surely encouraging for fans in Arlington. In winning five straight games to advance to the ALCS, the club’s starting and multi-inning options in Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford have pitched exceptionally well, with a combined 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work. A healthy Scherzer would allow Texas more flexibility regarding the usage of Heaney, Dunning, and Bradford with Montgomery and Eovaldi joining the team ace as the club’s three main starters for the series. Scherzer sports a 3.77 ERA in 152 1/3 innings of work this season, though that figure drops to a more impressive 3.20 (140 ERA+) since joining the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline.
More injury news from around the league…
- Alex Kirilloff was replaced by Byron Buxton on the ALDS roster for the Twins yesterday due to a shoulder injury, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes adds that Kirilloff spoke to reporters following last night’s game regarding the issue. Kirilloff revealed that surgery is on the table regarding his shoulder as he’s dealt with issues regarding it dating back to June. Fortunately, Hayes notes that the injury is in Kirilloff’s non-throwing shoulder and the 25-year-old isn’t concerned about a potential procedure’s rehab process. Kirilloff appeared in 88 games for the Twins this year while battling through wrist and shoulder issues, slashing .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate. Kirilloff figures to enter Spring Training in the mix for regular starts, with experience both at first base and in the corner outfield spots.
- The Diamondbacks removed catcher Gabriel Moreno from yesterday’s win over the Dodgers due to a hand contusion, sparking concern about the health of the club’s young catcher for the second time this postseason. He had previously been struck in the head by a backswing during the club’s Wild Card series against the Brewers. Fortunately, the club provided an update on Moreno this afternoon via Twitter. Arizona quoted Moreno as saying he “should be available for the rest of the playoffs” after tests on his hand came back negative. Moreno’s had an impressive postseason with a .250/.294/.813 slash line and three home runs in 17 trips to the plate. It’s an excellent capstone to a solid rookie season that saw the 23-year-old slash .284/.339/.408 in 111 games as the primary catcher for the DBacks.
Sonny Gray Discusses Impending Free Agency
The Twins were eliminated from the playoffs yesterday following their loss at the hands of the Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS. The club’s elimination brings to a close the 2023 campaign for a club that won 87 games, returned to the top of the AL Central standings for the first time since 2020, and won its first playoff series since 2002. Now, Minnesota will turn its attention to the impending offseason, where a handful of the club’s players figure to test free agency.
Chief among that group is veteran right-hander Sonny Gray, who led the club’s rotation with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings of work with an MLB-best 2.84 FIP. That performance put Gray squarely in contention for the AL Cy Young award in 2023, and sets him up to be one of the league’s top free agents this offseason. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke with Gray following last night’s loss regarding his future, and the righty made clear that his top priority as he heads into free agency isn’t necessarily securing the highest guarantee he can.
“I don’t know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I’ll say it because it’s honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been,” Gray said. “Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.” Gray went on to speaking glowingly of his time with the Twins. He noted that he “loves it” in Minnesota, adding that his time as a Twin has been an “incredible experience” and that “there is something special going on in this clubhouse.”
Though Gray’s interest in remaining with the Twins is evident, that hardly guarantees a return. Hayes goes on to indicate that the club figures to extend a one-year qualifying offer of roughly $20.5MM to Gray, though it’s unclear whether or not the Twins are interested in a longer term deal. While Gray and fellow rotation arm Kenta Maeda are headed for free agency, right-handers Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are each under long term club control. Meanwhile, righty Chris Paddack is expected to rejoin the rotation next year. That still leaves an open spot in this club’s rotation, though Hayes suggests the club could give a look to righty Louie Varland, who posted a 4.63 ERA in 68 innings of work at the big league level as a swingman for the Twins.
If Gray doesn’t return to Minnesota, he’s sure to find plenty of interest elsewhere. The Cardinals are already known to have interest in Gray’s services, while the Dodgers, Cubs and Reds are among the many other clubs who could potentially be on the lookout for rotation help this offseason. While the interest in Gray figures to be strong, it’s unlikely the veteran hurler will receive a top-of-the-market offer in terms of years, given he’ll be celebrating his 34th birthday next month. Gray’s comments hardly disputed that likelihood, with the righty suggesting that his decision this offseason will decide “where are the next three to four years of our lives” will be. A deal in that range certainly seems feasible on the heels of right-hander Chris Bassitt receiving a three-year, $62MM deal covering his age 34-36 seasons last offseason.
Mike Elias Discusses Upcoming Orioles Offseason
Orioles GM Mike Elias spoke to reporters this afternoon in an end-of-season press conference on the heels of the club being swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers on Tuesday. As relayed by reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner), Elias discussed an array of topics during the presser, including the club’s plans for the offseason and the upcoming 2024 campaign.
Following a 101-win campaign during which the club spent just $66MM on player payroll per RosterResource, Elias notably was noncommittal when asked whether or not the club planned to increase payroll this offseason. The Orioles GM simply noted that it’s still “day one” of Baltimore’s offseason, rather than providing a concrete answer about the club’s payroll expectations. Despite Elias demurring regarding the club’s 2024 payroll, he did note that the club has missed out on some preferred free agent and trade targets this year, and that “those pursuits will be on the menu again” this offseason.
Though Elias wouldn’t commit to increasing payroll next year, it’s worth noting that it would be difficult for the club to avoid increasing it’s payroll at least somewhat. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the club’s sixteen arbitration-eligible players to command a combined $55MM in salary for the 2024 season. That would leave the Orioles just $11MM in salary to pay existing commitments to Felix Bautista and James McCann and round out the rest of the club’s roster, which will see both second baseman Adam Frazier and right-hander Kyle Gibson head back to free agency after signing one-year deals with the club this past offseason.
While Elias did not reveal the club’s contract situations regarding either himself or manager Brandon Hyde, he confirmed both of them would return to the club for the 2024 campaign in their current roles. Elias spoke glowingly of Hyde during the presser, saying that the 50-year-old skipper “had an unbelievable season” in 2023 and that he expects Hyde to follow up his runner-up finish in AL Manager of the Year voting last season with a win this year.
The Orioles also offered a handful of updates regarding their players during the presser. Left-hander John Means missed most of the 2023 campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery before returning in September with a strong 2.66 ERA across four starts. Despite that performance, Means was left off the club’s ALDS roster due to elbow soreness, an ominous sign for an player coming off UCL surgery. Fortunately for both Means and the Orioles, the issue appears to have been very minor. Elias told reporters that Means is in “good shape” and should be fully ready for Spring Training come February. Means figures to factor into a 2024 rotation mix that also seems likely to feature Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer.
One other potential entrant into the club’s 2024 rotation mix is left-hander DL Hall. A consensus top-100 prospect entering the season even after his uneven big league debut in 2022, Hall has been a starter for 81 of his 96 career appearances in the minors despite being used primarily out of the bullpen in the big leagues. He was impressive in 19 1/3 innings of relief this year at the big league level, with a 3.26 ERA and 3.00 FIP, though he made just one appearance that lasted longer than two innings.
While Hyde praised Hall’s work with the club during the regular season last month out of the bullpen, he also noted that the club hasn’t discussed what his role next year will be, though Hyde emphasized that Hall will play a significant part in the club’s plans for 2024 regardless of his role. If Hall doesn’t wind up stretched back out for a shot at a rotation job in Spring Training, he could be given the opportunity to work as a high-leverage relief arm aside Yennier Cano in the absence of Bautista, who acted as the club’s main closer this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Perhaps most excitingly for Orioles fans, Elias did not push back against suggestions that top prospect Jackson Holliday could be in play for the big league roster next spring.
“I think when you are 19 and then you’re 20, that’s one year but that’s a lot of aging and physical development,” Elias said of Holiday, who turns 20 in December. “I can’t wait to see what he looks like in spring training.”
Holliday certainly made an impact during his first full professional season, slashing .323/.442/.499 with a 17.4% walk rate against a 20.3% strikeout rate in 581 trips to the plate across four levels of the minor leagues. That being said, Holliday’s experience at Triple-A didn’t go quite as smoothly as his overall numbers might suggest. In 91 plate appearances at the highest level of the minor leagues, the youngster slashed .267/.396/.400, though he did maintain his impressive walk (17.6%) and strikeout (18.9%) rates from the lower levels of the minors.
If Holliday manages to make the club’s Opening Day roster, Baltimore would be faced with a serious infield logjam. Both Holliday and Gunnar Henderson would presumably be in line for regular starts, and with first base likely dominated by some combination of Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn the club would have just one infield spot to dedicate to a group that includes Ramon Urias, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo, and Terrin Vavra, not to mention additional youngsters like Coby Mayo.
Offseason Chat Transcript: New York Mets
In conjunction with the Mets’ offseason outlook, Darragh McDonald held a Mets-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.
Mark Shapiro Discusses Upcoming Blue Jays Offseason
The Blue Jays made the playoffs for the third time in the past four years but each trip resulted in a hasty 2-0 playoff sweep. The club’s president/CEO Mark Shapiro spoke to the media today, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet among those to relay the information. While Shapiro touched on a number of topics, the key takeaways broadly involve continuity, with the club planning to retain Ross Atkins as general manager and keep the 2024 payroll at a similar level to 2023.
The 2023 Jays club was constructed differently than the 2022 version. Offensive outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were traded as glove-first players Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho were brought in. This had the expected result of the club faring better at run prevention but often struggling to score runs. In 2022, they finished fourth out of the 30 clubs in terms of plating runs but fell to a tie for 14th this year. But in terms of keeping runs off the board, they went from 13th to fifth. The overall effect was close to net neutral, as the club’s win tally fell from 92 to 89 but was still strong enough to get them back to the postseason, with the aforementioned quick exit.
It seems the club is satisfied enough with the regular season results to allow Atkins to continue in his role as general manager, a job he has held since the end of 2015. The club made the playoffs in 2016, advancing as far as the ALCS, before undergoing a quick rebuild with three losing seasons from 2017 to 2019. They started pushing their top prospects to the majors in that time, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette the most highly touted.
That led to the club making the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season, narrowly missing in 2021 despite winning 91 games, before getting back to the playoffs in the two most recent years. The lack of postseason success is surely frustrating for some fans, but the regular season results have been quite strong for four straight years in arguably the toughest division in the league, making it fairly logical that the club isn’t leaning towards huge changes.
“Ross needs to get better, but he’s done a good job,” Shapiro said today, adding that offense and baserunning are areas for potential improvement, as well as “communication of transparency” with players and staff.
Adding offense this winter will be a challenge since the free agent class is heavy on pitching and generally lighter on impact bats, but it sounds like the Jays should have some resources to attack the problem. Roster Resource calculates their 2023 payroll at $214MM and their competitive balance tax number at $248MM, their first time paying the luxury tax. There are some notable contracts coming off the books, including those of Hyun Jin Ryu, Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Kiermaier, with Whit Merrifield likely to be departing as well since mutual options are rarely picked up by both sides.
RR estimates the club’s 2024 payroll at $115MM right now, though a hefty arbitration class could add about $60MM to that and put them in the $175MM range. If they are willing to spend at similar levels nest year as Shapiro suggested, that should give them roughly $40MM or so to spend, perhaps a bit more if they end up non-tendering a couple of players from their arb class.
That money gives them some the potential to pursue various avenues this winter but, as mentioned, the free agent class skews towards pitching. The Jays are in good position in that department, with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi all still under contract next year and the departure of Ryu opening one spot. The giant unknown right now is how much the Jays believe in Alek Manoah‘s ability to bounce back next year, though they also have top prospect Ricky Tiedemann knocking on the door of the majors. The bullpen was also a strength this year and the club figures to retain Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Génesis Cabrera and others.
But more offense is certainly required and the club will have to replace the production of Chapman, Kiermaier, Belt and Merrifield just to break even in that regard. Belt had a wRC+ of 138 this year, though in a part-time/platoon role. The other three finished with a wRC+ between 110 and 93 but each brought some speed and/or defense to the table. The Jays could get some internal help from key prospects like Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger but it’s fair to expect them to pursue external options as well.
Chapman is the top free agent third baseman and could be brought back to man the hot corner, but they could also pursue someone like Jeimer Candelario at a lower price point. Merrifield is one of the best second baseman available but the club could perhaps give Davis Schneider and Cavan Biggio some run there after some encouraging results this year.
Varsho could perhaps slide over to take Kiermaier’s spot in center, allowing the club to pursue a bat-first corner outfielder like Michael Conforto or Jorge Soler, or perhaps reuniting with an old friend like Gurriel or Hernández. Belt was in the designated hitter spot most days, so there’s any number of ways the club could go with that spot. Time will tell what specific targets the club has in mind but it seems they will have the ability to reload for what should be another fiercely competitive year in the American League East.
Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
The Mets endured one of the most disappointing seasons in history and now change is the name of the game. There’s a new front office regime in place, which will hopefully lead to better results going forward. It’s expected that they will be less aggressive this winter, but by how much?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Francisco Lindor, SS: $256MM through 2031
- Brandon Nimmo, OF: $141.75MM through 2030
- Edwin Díaz, RHP: $72.75MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option, also has opt-out after ’25)
- Kodai Senga, RHP: $56MM through 2027
- Jeff McNeil, IF/OF: $43.75MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option)
- Starling Marte, OF: $39MM through 2025
- José Quintana, LHP: $13MM through 2024
- Omar Narváez, C: $7MM player option
- Adam Ottavino, RHP: $6.75MM player option
- Tomás Nido, C: $2.1MM through 2024
Option Decisions
- C Omar Narváez holds $7MM player option
- RHP Adam Ottavino holds $6.75MM player option
- Club holds $6.5MM club option on LHP Brooks Raley with $1.25MM buyout
Other Financial Commitments
- Paying $30.83MM to Rangers for Max Scherzer‘s salary
- Paying $31.3MM to Astros for Justin Verlander‘s salary (plus half of $35MM vesting option in ’25, if triggered)
- Paying $8MM to Orioles for James McCann
- $250K buyout on 2024 club option for IF/OF Darin Ruf
2024 financial commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are all picked up): $218.98MM
Total future commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are picked up, not including Verlander’s ’25 option): $714.98MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
- Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
- Elieser Hernández (5.044): $1.6MM
- Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
- Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
- Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
- Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
- Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
- Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
- Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
- John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
- Michael Pérez (3.095): $800K
- David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
- Danny Mendick (3.058): $1.1MM
- Rafael Ortega (3.035): $1.4MM
- DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
Non-tender candidates: Vogelbach, Hernández, Smith, Guillorme, Locastro, Coonrod, Brigham, Curtiss, Pérez, Mendick, Ortega
Free Agents
The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and then ran up the highest payroll in baseball history for 2023, going into the season with the greatest of expectations. Unfortunately, a rash of pitcher injuries put them behind the eight ball early on and they fell out of contention. As the summer wore on and the plane continued its descent towards the ocean, they had no choice but to reach for the emergency floatation devices. They traded Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and David Robertson, often eating substantial amounts of money in order to improve their prospect returns.
After that fire sale, Scherzer told the media that he was informed the Mets planned to take a sort of step back in 2024. Owner Steve Cohen and then-general manager Billy Eppler sort of confirmed those remarks, with each adding that the club hopes to compete in ’24 but with a greater focus on ’25 and ’26. “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think ’25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact,” Cohen said at the time. “Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24. More payroll flexibility in ’25. Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”
That makes it unclear exactly how the club will approach the upcoming winter, but it won’t be Eppler calling the shots. David Stearns was hired to be the new president of baseball operations, leaving the Brewers and coming over to run the team he grew up cheering for. Since Milwaukee was generally quite competitive under Stearns despite limited payrolls, it’s hoped that he can bring even more success to Queens now that he will have Cohen’s resources at his disposal.
It was originally expected that Eppler would stay on as GM and work under Stearns, but he recently stepped aside amid a strange league investigation into the club’s use of the injured list. Stearns also fired manager Buck Showalter, leaving that position vacant as well. Presumably, replacing Showalter will be the higher priority, as Stearns should be capable of steering the front office without a GM for the time being.
Though the Mets ended up saving some money by selling at the deadline, they still have a payroll of $346MM for the year, per Roster Resource. That translates to a competitive balance tax figure of roughly $359MM, still well beyond the highest luxury tax threshold of $293MM, leading to a tax bill of over $88MM.
It seems they want to dial things back in the year to come, though there’s already plenty on the books, with RR pegging their 2024 payroll at $204MM and their CBT number at $219MM. That’s before factoring in estimated arbitration salaries. Pete Alonso alone will add over $20MM to both of those figures, putting them above next year’s $237MM base threshold for the luxury tax before the offseason even begins. They could move some money around if dipping under than line is a priority, but it doesn’t seem to be. Stearns has said the club plans to retain Alonso, while Cohen’s comments suggest the club is looking to bring in free agent pitchers this winter.
How aggressive they will be in that market remains to be seen, but there is definitely work to be done. With Scherzer and Verlander both out of the picture, the rotation is now headlined by Kodai Senga, who posted an excellent 2.98 earned run average in his first major league season. José Quintana missed much of 2023 due to injury but should be able to serve as a solid mid-rotation arm. After that is where things get murky. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, Peyton Battenfield and José Butto but the Mets likely don’t want to be relying on that group for anything more than depth.
That means they could realistically add two or three starters this winter. Given they are thinking of 2024 as a kind of transitional season, they probably won’t be aiming for top-of-the-market names like Blake Snell or Aaron Nola. Perhaps they would still consider Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he’s just 25 years old and would still line up with their future plans. But it’s also possible they target a lower level of free agency, perhaps taking fliers on bouncebacks from Frankie Montas or Luis Severino. Veterans like Kenta Maeda or Hyun Jin Ryu could eat some innings on short-term deals, with the knowledge that they may end up traded if the club is out of contention by next summer.
In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz will be back after a season lost to a fluke knee injury. Adam Ottavino seems likely to trigger his player option and come back for another season. Brooks Raley posted an ERA under 3.00 for a second straight year and the club should pick up his option, given the reasonable $5.25MM net decision. Trevor Gott should be in the mix after his decent season, especially after the club ate Chris Flexen‘s contract to acquire him. But beyond that group, the bullpen core is a host of waiver claim types such as Phil Bickford and Anthony Kay.
A run at an expensive arm like Josh Hader or Robert Stephenson seems unlikely, but a few veterans on one-year deals would be sensible to strengthen the relief corps and also perhaps turn into deadline trade fodder. Craig Kimbrel, Matt Moore and John Brebbia are some of the many options there.
On the position player side, there should be less work to do. Francisco Álvarez took the catching job and ran with it this year. He received strong marks for his glovework while also popping 25 home runs. His offense was around league average on the whole thanks to a .209 batting average and .284 on-base percentage, but his .222 batting average on balls in play figures to improve going forward. Omar Narváez missed much of the year due to a calf strain and struggled after getting healthy but should be capable of serving as a solid backup.
Alonso figures to have first base spoken for, assuming he sticks around. His name was apparently discussed in trade rumors at the deadline but no deal came together. He’s entering his final arbitration season before he’s slated to reach free agency. As mentioned, Stearns has indicated the club plans to keep him for 2024 but he could wind up back on the trading block next summer if no extension is reached and the Mets aren’t in contention.
Francisco Lindor had yet another excellent season and should be back anchoring shortstop next year. He underwent surgery this week to remove a bone spur from his elbow but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. His double play partner will likely be Jeff McNeil, who started slow in 2023 but recovered in the second half. The Mets could theoretically add a second baseman and move McNeil to the outfield, but given the poor free agent market for middle infielders, it makes more sense to him to man the keystone. Middle infield prospect Luisangel Acuña could be a factor at some point next year, at which point McNeil could move to the grass.
Third base is a bit less certain, though there are internal options. Each of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio were highly-touted prospects on their way up but none of them have established themselves at the big league level yet. The club could consider a veteran stopgap here but it could also roll with a spring competition, leaving room for one of this group to break out and take the job.
The outfield will be anchored by Brandon Nimmo, who had a second straight healthy and productive season. The corners are a bit more questionable, especially with Starling Marte‘s ongoing groin problems. He only played 86 games this year and had the worst showing of his career when healthy enough to play. With his injury absences and Canha being traded, DJ Stewart got a lengthy showing to finish the year. He struck out in 30.3% of his plate appearances but also hit 11 home runs in just 58 games. The power has been there before but he’s a poor fielder, which could perhaps lead the club to non-tender Daniel Vogelbach and make Stewart their left-handed DH.
There should be room for a veteran corner outfielder, or perhaps two if Marte remains a question mark. Assuming the club doesn’t go to the top available free agents like Teoscar Hernández or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., they could reunite with Tommy Pham or perhaps reach out to someone like Jason Heyward, Robbie Grossman or David Peralta.
It’s also possible the Mets throw their hat into the Shohei Ohtani bidding. It would be slightly incongruous to give out a record-setting contract in what’s supposed to be a quieter offseason, but it’s an unprecedented opportunity and Cohen can’t really be ruled out on anyone. Ohtani reportedly had a West Coast preference when he first came over from Japan but it’s in his best interest to entertain all suitors this time in order to maximize his earning power. He won’t be able to pitch in 2024 but could theoretically join the Mets’ rotation in 2025 while also adding a potent bat to the lineup right away.
The club is still a bit of a mystery this winter, especially with Cohen constantly deviating from standard operating procedure. Last winter’s aggression was unprecedented so it remains to be seen what his definition of a more modest offseason looks like. But with the division featuring a couple of powerhouse teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia as well as a Marlins club that’s coming off a strong campaign, it seems fair to expect the Mets play things somewhat cautiously for now, keeping their eyes on a future that will hopefully have plenty to be excited about with the Stearns-Cohen pairing.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-specific chat on 10-12-23. Click here to view the transcript.
14 Players Elect Free Agency
As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.
Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR, including a list of 29 players last week. The next group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:
Catchers
- Chris Okey (Angels)
Outfielders
- Henry Ramos (Reds)
Pitchers
- Kyle Barraclough (Red Sox)
- Silvino Bracho (Reds)
- Daniel Castano (Marlins)
- Diego Castillo (Mariners)
- Nabil Crismatt (D-Backs)
- Justin Dunn (Reds)
- Javy Guerra (Rays)
- Brent Honeywell Jr. (White Sox)
- Brett Kennedy (Reds)
- Jake Reed (Dodgers)
- José Rodríguez (Mariners)
- César Valdez (Angels)
The Opener: Braves/Phillies, Moreno, Mets Outlook
Two more Division Series concluded last night. The Diamondbacks finished off a sweep of the Dodgers with a 4-2 win, while the Astros held on to beat the Twins 3-2. Houston clinched a remarkable seventh consecutive trip to the AL Championship Series, where they’ll match up against their in-state rivals. The Rangers head to Houston this weekend.
The D-Backs, who are into the final four for the first time since 2007, join the rest of us in watching tonight’s matchup.
1. Braves/Phillies, Game 4
The Phillies went ahead in the remaining Division Series with a resounding 10-2 home victory yesterday. They hit six home runs — including two apiece from Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos — to secure a 2-1 lead in the series. They’ll try to clinch a second straight NLCS berth tonight at 7:07 CDT. It’s a rematch of the pitching matchup from Game 1, with Philadelphia lefty Ranger Suárez against Atlanta ace Spencer Strider. Suárez got the better of a pitcher’s duel on Saturday. If Strider and the Braves can fend off elimination, they’d head back to Truist Park for a decider on Saturday. The D-Backs await the winner next Monday.
2. Moreno update
In a celebratory night for Arizona, the only minor concern was an injury to catcher Gabriel Moreno. For the second straight series, Moreno was forced out early of the clinching game by injury. He left the Brewers series after being hit in the head on a backswing but passed concussion protocol and returned against L.A. Yesterday’s issue was a right hand injury that the D-Backs diagnosed as a contusion. Initial x-rays came back negative, Moreno told reporters during the postgame celebration (relayed by Sam Blum of the Athletic). He seems on track to return for the NLCS, although the club will surely monitor his progress over the next few days.
3. Mets Outlook
For all but five teams, we’re into offseason mode. MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series is nearly halfway complete. Darragh McDonald takes a look at what could be in store for the Mets in a post that’ll hit the website this afternoon.
Rays Open To Increased Payroll In 2024
The Rays have a challenging offseason ahead, as they often do. Even after successful seasons, they usually find themselves looking for financial cuts given their low-spending ways. That could be the case again this winter though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that the club is open to running a higher payroll in order to keep much of the club intact.
“We have the ability to do that,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander says. “And that’s a nice starting point to have — 99 wins with contributions from as many players as we did this year, players that established themselves, young players getting their first opportunities. It puts us at a really strong position.”
The Rays usually run a payroll near the bottom of the league, with the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts never having them above $85MM on Opening Day and they haven’t been higher than 25th in the league since 2010. Topkin’s report says the $78.245MM Opening Day figure from last year is actually the franchise high, which is even lower than the listing at Cot’s. But with raises due to various players on the team, running out a similar roster for 2024 would involve getting way up into the $120MM range.
Part of that is Tyler Glasnow, who made just $5.35MM this year but is set to jump to $25MM next year as part of the extension he signed with the club. Lesser raises are also due to other players who signed extensions like Manuel Margot, Yandy Díaz, Jeffrey Springs and Brandon Lowe. Then there’s the arbitration class, which features 16 players. Some of those are non-tender candidates but projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz show that Randy Arozarena will likely earn around $9MM, more than double this year’s $4.125MM salary, among many other notable jumps.
Roster Resource estimates that the club already had about $74MM committed for next year, without those arbitration estimates taken into account. The class is projected as a whole for $46.3MM, which lines up with Topkin’s $120MM figure for keeping the whole gang together.
In the past, the Rays have often dealt with this situation by moving on from notable players like Tommy Pham, Blake Snell and many others. The willingness to trade established big leaguers for cheaper and less-proven ones has allowed the club to continually compete even with their budgetary limitations. 2023 saw them reach the postseason for a fifth straight year, despite sharing a division with many bigger spenders. Though they were quickly eliminated in their last three postseason trips, it’s nonetheless been an impressive tightrope walk.
Perhaps they can proceed with a bit more continuity next year, if Neander’s words prove to be true. Skeptics would be forgiven for rolling their eyes, but the club has hinted at some greater spending capacity in the past. As Topkin points out, the club made an offer of $150MM over six years to Freddie Freeman before he ended up with the Dodgers.
Sticking with the same roster would still leave issues, given how the 2023 club started out red hot and faded as the season went along. But it’s possible that the reverse trajectory could be in store next year. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be ready to go for Spring Training. Springs required the same procedure in April and could rejoin the club next summer. Drew Rasmussen could also be a midseason returnee after undergoing an internal brace procedure in July. Continued development from younger players like Taj Bradley, Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead could also give them some more momentum.
The Freeman offer from a few years ago shows that the willingness to change course doesn’t necessarily lead to it actually happening. But as Topkin points out, the club had increased attendance this year and has a funding agreement for a new stadium, perhaps giving principal owner Stuart Sternberg some extra incentive to sign off on a different spending level, though it seems it may not be permanent even if it does happen.
“If the timing’s right — right player, right team, right time — there’s always that ability to push,” Neander says. “It’s probably going to come from somewhere at a later date. But there is a fluidity to our payrolls and things, there’s a freedom to it, that allow us to be more competitive if the right circumstances suggest we should make that run.”
Still, there are many who won’t believe in the higher payroll potential until it comes to fruition. It will likely also depend on what discussions happen in the winter with free agents or potential trade partners, something Neander acknowledges. “Every offseason is unique,” he says. “A lot of it will depend on what the other 29 teams are looking to do in addition to what we think is best for us. So, very TBD. Not much of an answer, but a lot of it is you’ve got to be ready to go in whatever direction the winter takes us. But we can run this group back. And it’s a good starting position.”