Lee Jung-hoo

Outfielder Lee Jung-hoo of the Kiwoom Heroes in the KBO League will miss the next three months due to an ankle injury that requires surgery, reports Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News Agency. There’s less than two months remaining in the KBO regular season schedule, meaning this will effectively end his season.

Lee, 24, has already established himself as one of the better players in the KBO League despite his young age. He won Rookie of the Year in 2017 after hitting .324/.395/.417 when he was just 18 years old for much of the year. He continued to improve his game in subsequent seasons, including last year. He hit 23 home runs and produced a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175. He struck out in just 5.1% of his plate appearances while walking in 10.5% of them. He also stole five bases and won a Gold Glove for a fifth straight year, with his combined efforts leading to a Most Valuable Player award.

He was surely hoping for another strong season here in 2023, since the Heroes announced in January that he will be posted for major league clubs afterwards, allowing him to attempt to make the move to North America at the age of 25. But it’s not going to end up playing out in ideal fashion for Lee. In 85 games this year, he still played well, but at a level below his MVP campaign last year. His walk rate ticked up to 12.7% but he hit just six home runs, leading to a .319/.407/.456 batting line. His 142 wRC+ indicates he’s still been way above average but not quite as outrageously as last year.

On top of that relatively diminished output, he’ll now have to miss the final few months of the season and will likely go into the winter with uncertainty surrounding his health status. It’s obviously an ill-timed development for Lee, who was surely hoping to earn a significant contract in making the jump to Major League Baseball. Since he turns 25 in August, he will no longer be considered an “amateur” by MLB rules and won’t be subject to the bonus pool system.

He will therefore be free to sign a contract of any length or dollar amount, with the signing club also responsible for paying a posting fee to the Heroes. That’s tied to the size of the contract itself, with the MLB team owing the KBO club 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. That fee is on top of any dollars guaranteed to the player himself, and subsequent earning (e.g. performance incentives, contract options) are also subject to the posting system once they become guaranteed to the player.

Lee seemed to be set up to be one of the more intriguing free agents this winter, especially since the class seems heavy on pitchers and light on position players. That might still be the case, though it’s possible that this injury situation has an impact on things, depending on how he progresses between now and the winter.

The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they will post outfielder and reigning league MVP Lee Jung-hoo after the upcoming season, per Yoo Jee-ho of the Yonhap News Agency.

“After some internal discussions, we agreed to respect the player’s intent to play in Major League Baseball,” the team said in a statement. “We will provide whatever support necessary for the player.” Lee also provided a quote in the statement. “The team has been giving me so much support since I was a rookie, and I was able to start dreaming about playing overseas because the team has helped me grow as a player,” he said. “First and foremost, I will concentrate on the upcoming season. I will put aside personal ambitions and try to help the team win the Korean Series.”

Lee is only 24 years old but already has already played six seasons in the KBO, bursting onto the scene in 2017 when he was only 18 years old. He played 144 games that season and only hit a couple of home runs but showed a great ability at the plate otherwise. He walked in 9.6 percent of his plate appearances while striking out in just 10.8 percent of them and produced a batting line of .324/.395/.417. That production was 12 percent better than league average, as evidenced by his 112 wRC+.

He was given Rookie of the Year honors for that performance and has only continued to get better at the plate in subsequent seasons. His excellent plate discipline has only improved as he’s settled into the league, resulting in a 10.5 percent walk rate and tiny 5.1 percent strikeout rate in 2022. That was the fourth straight season in which he walked more than he struck out. His power has also ticked up over time, with Lee launching 23 home runs in the most recent season. He finished with a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175, indicating he was 75 percent better than league average. He was awarded Most Valuable Player for that excellent work. It’s not just at the plate where Lee shines either. He has stolen 63 bases over his six seasons in the KBO and has won Golden Glove awards for his outfield work in each of the past five campaigns.

After the upcoming campaign, Lee will have the seven seasons of experience necessary for KBO players to be posted. He will also turn 25 in August, a significant milestone for his move to MLB. International players under 25 years of age and/or with fewer than six years of professional experience are considered “amateurs” rather than professionals under MLB’s international free agency rules and are thus subject to the “bonus pool” system, where each team has an MLB-mandated cap on how much it can spend on signing bonuses.

International “amateurs” can only agree to minor league deals and signing bonuses, whereas “professionals” like former NPB players Seiya Suzuki, Masataka Yoshida and Kodai Senga (i.e. players 25 and older with six-plus years of pro experience) are free to sign Major League contracts for any length and dollar amount; for example, Shohei Ohtani came over to the Angels prior to his age-23 season, settling for a $2.3MM signing bonus and was unable to reach free agency until after 2023. Had he waited two more years, he could have immediately signed a nine-figure contract.

Lee will thus be able to sign a contract of any length or dollar amount once he reaches the open market. FanGraphs gives him a 50 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, giving high praise for his work at the plate. They have a little bit of concern about his ground ball rate being near 60 percent and that he has struggled a bit against high velocity, but they still believe him to be a very exciting player.

If Lee does sign with a major league team next year, the club would owe a fee to the Heroes under the MLB – KBO posting agreement. That’s tied to the size of the contract itself, with the MLB team owing the KBO club 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. That fee is on top of any dollars guaranteed to the player himself, and subsequent earning (e.g. performance incentives, contract options) are also subject to the posting system once they become guaranteed to the player.