Trevor Kelley Accepts Outright Assignment From Rays
Rays right-hander Trevor Kelley has cleared waivers and been outrighted off the team’s 40-man roster, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link). Kelley will report to Triple-A Durham and remain in the organization, as he has chosen to pass on his right to reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency — Kelley has previously been outrighted in his career, giving him the right to turn down future outright assignments.
Back in January, Kelley exercised this right by entering the free agent market after the Brewers designated him for assignment and outrighted him off their 40-man. The righty reliever signed a minor league deal with Tampa shortly thereafter, and Kelley has been up and down from Durham a few times this season, totaling 15 1/3 innings over 10 games at the Major League level before the Rays designated him for assignment last week.
This majors-to-minors shuttle has been a frequent element of Kelley’s career over his four MLB seasons, and may have contributed to his 6.75 ERA over 50 2/3 frames of work in the big leagues. Debuting with the Red Sox in 2019, Kelley has also pitched with Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay in the majors, and he was a member of the Cubs and Braves organizations in 2021 without seeing any time on their active rosters.
Despite the lack of success in the majors, Kelley’s Triple-A numbers are the easy explanation as to why the 30-year-old keeps getting chances with multiple teams. Kelley has a 2.38 ERA over 197 innings at Triple-A, as well as decent strikeout (24.42%) and walk (8.47%) rates. However, Kelley didn’t perform as well with Durham this year, as he allowed seven homers over 32 2/3 innings en route to posting a 5.23 ERA.
AL Notes: Brantley, Robert, Montas, Diaz
As relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic, Astros GM Dana Brown went on the club’s pregame radio show to discuss the status of veteran outfielder Michael Brantley, who has battled a shoulder injury throughout the year and only appeared in 12 games for the club to this point as a result. According to Brown, Brantley has been dealing with renewed soreness but has been “battling trying to get back” and that he felt “a little better” after taking batting practice today. Brown hopes that he’ll be able to return to the lineup for the club’s series against Seattle, which begins tomorrow.
With Brantley sidelined, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the left-handed hitting regulars on the Astros, with righty bats Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon having spent time in center field while Chas McCormick moves to left to cover for Brantley. With Alvarez working through an ailment of his own, it’s possible that Brantley won’t return to the lineup until he’s ready to play the outfield, with manager Dusty Baker having recently stated that the club is looking to avoid playing Alvarez on the field due to his elbow issue. Brantley has slashed .262/.273/.429 to this point in the season, though that stat line only represents a tiny sample size of 44 trips to the plate thanks to Brantley’s injury woes.
More from around the American League…
- Star White Sox slugger Luis Robert Jr. exited today’s game against the Red Sox due to knee soreness after stealing his 20th base of the season. He was replaced in the game by outfielder Trayce Thompson. According to Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Robert will be evaluated further tomorrow in Chicago. Robert has been a rare bright spot in what has been an otherwise brutal White Sox season, with a .264/.314/.542 slash line and 38 home runs through 144 games this season while playing quality defense in center field. If Robert requires a stay on the shelf to end the season, Thompson, Oscar Colas, and Adam Haseley figure to be the club’s options in center field going forward.
- The Yankees have been without right-hander Frankie Montas all season, though it’s possible that could change before he departs for free agency this offseason. As noted by Greg Joyce of the New York Post, manager Aaron Boone told reporters this afternoon that it’s “possible” Montas could make his way back to the big leagues before the end of the year, as the club and player are still talking about next steps for the 30-year-old. Montas made his second rehab start at the Triple-A level yesterday, tossing two scoreless innings on 25 pitches with two strikeouts.
- Rays infielder Yandy Diaz exited today’s game against the Blue Jays due to what what the club has termed right hamstring tightness, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While the severity of the injury is not currently known, with the postseason creeping ever closer an injury of any significance would be a significant blow to the Rays. The club has already lost Brandon Lowe and Luke Raley to injury, and Diaz has been the club’s top offensive performer with a .327/.407/.515 slash line in 594 trips to the plate. Fortunately for the Rays, the club has a deep bench of quality youngsters including Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Curtis Mead who can help cover for injuries, though the hole Diaz would leave in the lineup headed into the postseason would be difficult to fill. [UPDATE: Rays manager Kevin Cash told Topkin and other reporters postgame that Diaz’s removal was “more precautionary” in nature than a serious injury concern, and that Diaz is now feeling better.]
Guardians Activate Triston McKenzie From 60-Day IL
The Guardians activated right-hander Triston McKenzie from the 60-day IL earlier today, per the MLB.com transactions log. McKenzie will take the 40-man roster spot of Tanner Bibee, who was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move, and the active roster spot of Michael Kelly, who was optioned to Triple-A Columbus.
McKenzie, 26, help to power the Guardians to a AL Central crown in 2022 with a breakout campaign. He posted a 2.96 ERA, 29% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.59 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings of work. After that impressive season, McKenzie figured to slot in alongside Shane Bieber at the front of Cleveland’s rotation entering 2023. Unfortunately, McKenzie has been limited to just ten innings of 4.50 ERA ball across two starts this season due to injuries. After missing the first two months of the season with a shoulder strain, McKenzie went back on the shelf shortly thereafter thanks to a UCL sprain and hasn’t pitched in the majors since. That’s set to change today, however, as McKenzie is poised to take the ball for today’s game against the Orioles.
Looking ahead to the offseason, McKenzie will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time in his career this winter and in 2024 figures to join Bieber and youngsters Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen in the club’s starting rotation as the club hopes to rebound from a difficult 2023 campaign that’s seen them post a record of just 74-82 to this point in the season. As for Bibee, the news hardly comes as a surprise as his season had already come to a close due to hip inflammation. Kelly, meanwhile, has provided solid innings for the Guardians while shuttling between Triple-A and the majors this year, with a 3.78 ERA and a 2.96 FIP in 14 appearances.
Angels Select Carson Fulmer, Place Mike Trout On 60-Day IL
The Angels are calling up right-hander Carson Fulmer, as noted by Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. He’ll take the active roster spot of lefty Tyler Anderson, who was placed on the injured list yesterday with left knee soreness. A 40-man roster spot was cleared for Fulmer by placing outfielder Mike Trout on the 60-day IL, with manager Phil Nevin confirming to reporters (including Bollinger) that the veteran star’s season is over. The club also announced that infielder Mike Moustakas has been reinstated from the 10-day IL, with first baseman C.J. Cron going on the injured list to clear space on the active roster.
Fulmer was selected eighth overall in the 2015 draft by the White Sox and made his major league debut back in 2016, though he was never able to full establish himself in the majors. He posted a 6.56 ERA across 94 2/3 innings of work between 2016 and 2019 with Chicago before making brief cameos in Detroit, Baltimore, and Cincinnati over the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In those two seasons, Fulmer combined for a 6.00 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 36 innings of work.
Fulmer didn’t pitch in the majors in 2022, instead spending the season with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City. He posted a 2.86 ERA in 56 2/3 innings at that level last year, strong enough numbers that the Angels opted to offer him a minor league deal back in May. Things didn’t go as smoothly for Fulmer this year, however, as he posted a 5.27 ERA in 41 innings of work with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate in Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, Fulmer will get his first taste of big league action since 2021 with the Angels as they look toward what remains of their depth to help cover innings for the season’s final stretch.
The addition of Fulmer to the roster officially brings the season to an end for Trout, who appeared in just one game after landing on the injured list with a left hamate fracture in early July. It was a relative down season for Trout when he was on the field, as the superstar slashed .263/.367/.490 in 362 trips to the plate with the Angels this year. Of course, those numbers still clock in at 34% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and really only constitute a down season by Trout’s incredibly lofty standards. Trout will look toward a return to the field in 2024, where better health hopefully awaits him after averaging just 79 games a season since the start of the 2021 campaign.
Also done for the year is Cron, who slashed a decent .260/.304/.476 in 224 trips to the plate with Colorado this year but saw his performance take a nosedive following a trade to Anaheim. In 15 games with the Angels, Cron posted a brutal .200/.259/.260 slash line that was good for a wRC+ of just 42. A pending free agent this offseason, Cron will face stiff competition from players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper and Brandon Belt who are also primarily limited to first base defensively. Cron’s placement on the IL makes way for the return of Moustakas, who similarly posted solid numbers in Colorado before suffering a downturn in performance upon heading to Anaheim. Overall, Moustakas has slashed .252/.300/.404 in 370 trips to the plate this season.
Twins Activate Chris Paddack
The Twins announced this morning that the club had activated right-hander Chris Paddack from the 60-day IL. Left-hander Jovani Moran was recalled and placed on the 60-day IL to make way for Paddack on the 40-man roster, while right-hander Josh Winder was optioned to Triple-A to clear space on the active roster.
Paddack, 27, is returning from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. An eighth-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft, he was shipped to the Padres in exchange for closer Fernando Rodney just one year later. Paddack eventually made his big league debut in 2019 and made a strong impression during his rookie campaign. The youngster posted a 3.33 ERA across 140 2/3 innings of work with a 26.9% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.5%. Things took a turn for a worse during the shortened 2020 season, however, as his ERA shot up to 4.73 across 12 starts, thanks in large part to an unbelievable 25% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs.
While Paddack’s home run rate came back down to Earth in 2021, his results remained less than stellar. His 5.07 ERA was 23% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and while his career-best 3.78 FIP and a career-low 60.7% strand rate indicated that misfortune could be plaguing Paddack, the righty’s strikeout rate had dipped to just 21.6%, a far cry from the highs of his rookie season. Paddack also dealt with injuries throughout the 2021 campaign, with three trips to the injured list costing him a total of two months.
The struggles led the Padres to move on from Paddack, shipping him to Minnesota ahead of the 2022 season alongside right-hander Emilio Pagan in exchange for lefty Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker. Paddack looked to have better days on the horizon through five starts with his new club, as he posted a 4.03 ERA and 3.18 FIP across 22 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for both Paddack and the Twins, the righty would subsequently require surgery that would wipe out the remainder of his 2022 season and the entire 2023 campaign to this point. Of course, the injury woes didn’t stop the sides from coming together on a three-year pact this offseason that bought out what otherwise would have been his first free agent year.
Now back on the mound in the big leagues, Paddack is expected to work out of the bullpen for the Twins down the stretch and into the postseason, though after stretching out to 60 pitches in the minors, it’s certainly plausible that he could provide Minnesota with rotation depth or a piggyback starter in the playoffs, should the club wind up in a pinch at some point. Looking ahead to 2024, Paddack seems poised to be in the mix for the club’s rotation alongside Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan following the impending departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda via free agency.
Moran, 26, posted a 5.31 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work for the Twins this season but hasn’t appeared in the majors since early August. He was placed on the IL in the minor leagues at the end of August with a forearm strain, and evidently will not pitch again this season. As for Winder, the righty has posted a solid 4.15 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work as a long reliever for the Twins this year, his first since converting to the bullpen full time. He could provide the Twins with starting depth throughout their postseason run, but won’t be eligible to return to the regular season roster this year unless he replaces an injured player.
Red Sox Designate Kyle Barraclough For Assignment
The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves this morning. The club activated right-hander Zack Kelly from the 60-day injured list, and in corresponding moves optioned righty Nick Robertson to Triple-A while designating fellow right-hander Kyle Barraclough for assignment.
Kelly’s return, while not necessarily unexpected, is surely a major relief for both the Red Sox and Kelly himself. The 28-year-old righty has been on the 60-day injured list for most of the season to this point thanks to an ulnar nerve transposition revision in his throwing elbow he underwent at the beginning of May. Despite battling injuries to this point in his big league career, Kelly has been effective on the mound when healthy, with a career 3.86 ERA in 21 innings of work that includes a 3.68 ERA across six appearances this season. In returning for the final games of the season, Kelly should have the opportunity to test his arm ahead of the offseason and prepare himself for a typical offseason regimen with an eye on returning to the club’s bullpen in 2024.
The move spells the end of Barraclough’s tenure with the Red Sox. Once a quality reliever with the Marlins who posted a 3.21 ERA (122 ERA+) and 3.45 FIP to go with a 29.8% strikeout rate from 2015-18, Barraclough has struggled in limited big league opportunities ever since. In 63 1/3 innings of work since the start of the 2019 season, Barraclough has seen his strikeout rate dip to 23.1% despite an elevated 12.7% walk rate. As a result, his ERA has ballooned to 6.11 with a 6.45 FIP during that time. To make matters worse, Barraclough’s strikeouts have all but evaporated this year: he’s punched out just four of the 46 batters he’s faced with Boston.
While Barraclough’s results at the big league level have been rough for several seasons at this point, he figures to look ahead to the offseason with a solid chance of landing a minor league deal somewhere, should he choose to do so. After all, the veteran righty has a track record of past success in Miami and has never stopped performing at the Triple-A level, with a career 3.44 ERA in 170 innings of work at the level. Robertson also figures to look toward translating success in the minors to big league production headed into 2024, as the 24-year-old hurler sports a brutal 6.33 ERA in 21 1/3 career innings as a major leaguer despite a sterling 2.98 ERA in 51 games at the Triple-A level.
AL East Notes: Belt, Mountcastle, Adam, Arozarena
Blue Jays slugger Brandon Belt has been on the shelf for the past two weeks with low back spasms, but could be nearing a return per MLB.com. The veteran has joined the club on their current road trip and has been progressing well. Toronto intends to “simulate game situations” today as a final step before his impending activation from the injured list.
It’s welcome news for the Blue Jays, as Belt’s 134 wRC+ this year is only bested by small-sample size efforts by Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement. In 382 trips to the plate this season, Belt has slashed a solid .251/.369/.470 in his shift to a part time role with Toronto. That production comes in spite of a career-high 35.1% strikeout rate, though his whiffs are offset somewhat by a 15.7% walk rate that’s excellent even by Belt’s own lofty standards. The return of Belt figures to push utility player Cavan Biggio back to the bench and could provide a spark for the Blue Jays as they find themselves in the second AL Wild Card spot with just seven games left in the regular season, one game up on the Astros and 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) yesterday that first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is progressing well in his rehab from a shoulder injury that sidelined him just over a week ago. Mountcastle hasn’t returned to hitting yet but stood in the batter’s box to track pitches during injured closer Felix Bautista‘s most recent bullpen session. Though Bautista’s timetable for return still appears to be up in the air, Mountcastle is expected to be ready to come off the injured list in time for Wednesday’s game against the Nationals. Mountcastle is hitting a respectable .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season and has been covered for by Ryan O’Hearn at first base in recent days.
- Rays reliever Jason Adam was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a strained oblique yesterday, just one day after returning from a three-week IL stint for a separate oblique strain. While Adam’s injury will sideline him into the postseason, the 31-year-old is nonetheless hopeful that he’ll be able to return this season if the Rays make a deep postseason run, as he told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he wants to return despite being “more sore this time than last time.” Adam’s 2023 regular season comes to a close with a 2.98 ERA, 4.00 FIP and 31.1% strikeout rate over 56 appearances.
- Sticking with the Rays, outfielder Randy Arozarena is still day-to-day with tightness in his right quad. Despite manager Kevin Cash telling reporters (including MLB.com) that the 28-year-old could have been available off the bench during yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays, he didn’t make an appearance. Still, Arozarena told reporters through an interpreter that he was feeling “pretty good” and hoping to return in the near future. Arozarena’s return figures to provide a boost to the Rays lineup, as the first-time All Star has slashed .255/.363/.427 in 640 trips to the plate this year while acting as the club’s regular left fielder.
Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Lefty Relievers
We’ve been covering the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. After covering the starters yesterday, we’re on to the relief group. We’ll begin with the southpaws.
Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.
Top of the Class
- Josh Hader (30)
Long one of the game’s most dominant relievers, Hader now finds himself on the precipice of free agency, where he’ll be among the most sought-after talents on the market this winter. He’s no longer the premier strikeout arm in baseball but still sports the fifth-best strikeout rate of any qualified reliever in 2023 at 36.7%. The dip from his days of fanning around 45% of his opponents hasn’t made him any less effective, however. Hader boasts a sensational 1.21 ERA and has allowed all of three earned runs since Memorial Day.
There was some hand-wringing about the lefty’s struggles in the run-up to the 2022 trade deadline and about his early performance following a trade to the Padres. Hader quieted those concerns with a dominant showing both in September and in the postseason. Since being blown up for six runs on Aug. 28, 2022, Hader’s numbers look like this (postseason included): 68 2/3 innings, 1.05 ERA, 37.3% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, two home runs allowed (0.26 HR/9).
Hader has been a veritable bullpen cheat code this season and for much of his career. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he’ll reach free agency with his sights set on topping Edwin Diaz‘s $102MM guarantee — the largest ever for any reliever — and should have a legitimate chance to do so.
High-Leverage Relievers
- Aroldis Chapman (36)
It’s been a resurgent year for Chapman both in terms of velocity and overall results. His heater’s 99.1 mph average is at its highest point since the 2017 season, and Chapman has unsurprisingly seen notable improvement in his strikeout rate (42.9%) and swinging-strike rate (17.6%). Among 439 relievers who’ve pitched at least 10 innings this year, Chapman trails only Baltimore’s Felix Bautista in terms of strikeout rate.
Overall, the former Reds, Yankees and Cubs closer has pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. Chapman’s command is always going to be shaky, and this year has been no exception; he’s allowed a free pass to 14.2% of his opponents. His sky-high strikeout rate has offset that, however, as he’s found success working primarily in a setup role between Kansas City and Texas. Chapman signed a one-year, make-good deal with the Royals this past offseason that guaranteed him $3.75MM. He’ll be in line for a considerably heavier payday this time around — quite possibly on a multi-year deal. He should have closing opportunities available to him.
- Matt Moore (35)
It’s been quite the career arc for Moore. A top prospect and burgeoning star with the Rays early in his career, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, returned looking more like a fourth starter and, after being traded two different times, eventually settled into journeyman status. Moore had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers in 2022, but he’s found new life as a bona fide late-inning reliever over the past two seasons.
Moore’s 2022 breakout in Texas (1.95 ERA in 74 innings) led to a one-year, $7.55MM deal with the Angels in 2023, and he’s continued to demonstrate his efficacy in leverage situations. In 48 2/3 frames between the Angels and Guardians, the southpaw has a 2.77 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He’s picked up 21 holds as well.
Claimed off waivers by the Marlins this week, he’ll spend the final week-plus of the season in Miami and hope to help push them to a postseason spot, even though he won’t be eligible for the playoff roster. Dating back to 2022, Moore has a 2.27 ERA and 35 holds in 122 2/3 innings with a well above-average strikeout rate. He’s shown that his 2022 season wasn’t a fluke, and there ought to be multi-year offers waiting for him in free agency.
- Wandy Peralta (32)
Acquired in an April 2021 trade that sent 2019 cult hero Mike Tauchman to the Giants, Peralta wound up providing the Yankees with two and a half seasons of quality bullpen innings. In 153 innings with the Yankees dating back to that ’21 trade, Peralta has turned in a sharp 2.83 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He’s overwhelmed left-handed opponents, held his own against righties, and kept the ball on the ground at a roughly 55% clip — all while sporting a heater that averages better than 95 mph.
Peralta isn’t a household name, but he’s been a quietly solid big league reliever dating back to his 2020 season with the Giants — evidenced by a 3.01 ERA over 188 2/3 innings in that time. He could find a two-year deal in free agency this winter.
- Will Smith (34)
After an up-and-down tenure in Atlanta over the course of his prior three-year deal, Smith lingered on the free agent market into March this past offseason. He’d turned things around following a trade to the Astros but still seemed to be met with skepticism, as he commanded a modest one-year, $2MM deal in free agency.
Through late August, the deal looked to be a bargain. Smith pitched to a 2.96 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates, but he’s hit a rocky stretch in the 2023 campaign’s final two months. Over his past 18 1/3 innings, Smith has been charged with 17 earned runs on 22 hits (three homers) and eight walks with 15 strikeouts. It’s ballooned his ERA from 2.96 all the way to 4.55. The veteran lefty’s 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and 35.4% chase rate are all strong marks, but this recent rough patch could result in him settling for another one-year deal in his return to the market this winter.
Middle Relievers
- Scott Alexander (34)
A ground-ball machine with good command who doesn’t miss many bats, Alexander has tossed 48 1/3 innings of 4.66 ERA ball for the Giants this year. San Francisco has used him as an opener on eight occasions as well. From 2016-22, Alexander notched 216 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA and mammoth 70.1% ground-ball rate. This year’s results aren’t great, but he should get a big league deal this winter.
- Jake Diekman (37)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the veteran Diekman struggled through rough showings with the White Sox in both 2022 and early 2023 before bouncing back upon signing with the Rays. In 42 1/3 innings, the Diekman has pitched to a 2.34 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate. Command has been a problem for Diekman throughout his career, but he still throws hard and still misses bats at a high level. Tampa Bay hasn’t used him in high-leverage spots, but he’s had success more often than not there and should be in line for another big league deal this winter.
- Brent Suter (34)
A waiver claim out of the Brewers organization early in the 2022-23 offseason, Suter hasn’t been fazed by pitching at altitude. In 64 2/3 innings with the Rox, he’s pitched to a 3.48 ERA — a near mirror image of the career 3.51 mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. Suter’s 18% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 8.8% walk rate is a career-high. However, the soft-tossing lefty has long been one of the game’s best at avoiding hard contact, and that’s true again in 2023: 83.6 mph average exit velocity, 3% barrel rate, 25.9% hard-hit rate. Opponents just don’t square the ball up against Suter, and he’s made a fine career out of that knack for weak contact.
Club Options
- Andrew Chafin (34)
Chafin posted big strikeout numbers with the D-backs but has struggled since being traded to the Brewers, for whom he has a 7.82 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. The veteran southpaw was sporting a 3.06 ERA and matching FIP at the All-Star break — a number that falls right in line with the collective 3.05 ERA he posted in 289 innings from 2017-22. The recent rough patch stems from a small-sample spike in homers (three) and walks (eight) in his short time with Milwaukee. The poor results seem like they’ll lead to the Brewers opting for a $725K buyout rather than Chafin’s $7.25MM option price, but he should get a big league deal again in free agency this winter.
- Jarlin Garcia (31)
Garcia didn’t wind up pitching at all with the Pirates after signing a one-year deal, as a biceps injury incurred in spring training ended up shelving him for the season. The Bucs will surely buy out his $3.25MM option.
- Brad Hand (34)
Hand’s $7MM club option actually converted to a mutual option when he was traded from the Rockies to the Braves, but that’s a moot point. The former All-Star has limped to a 6.00 ERA with Atlanta, and the team will likely pay a $500K buyout.
- Aaron Loup (36)
Loup pitched decently in 2022 — the first season of a two-year, $17MM free agent contract. He’s been roughed up to tune of a 6.10 ERA in 2023, however. A bloated .373 average on balls in play has surely played a role in that, but his strikeout, walk and grounder rates have all also continued to trend in the wrong direction since his career year with the Mets in 2021 (0.95 ERA in 56 2/3 innings). The Halos figure to pay the $2MM buyout on his $7.5MM option.
- Brooks Raley (36)
Raley parlayed a successful three-year KBO run into a big league return in 2020, and he’s since solidified himself as a quality reliever. He’s sporting a 2.94 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate this season, albeit against a questionable 10.3% walk rate. Given Raley’s 2.81 ERA, nine saves and 46 holds in his past 105 2/3 innings, his $6.5MM club option seems like a good value. That’s especially true given that it comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a net $5.25MM call. Even if the Mets don’t want to pay that price plus the associated luxury tax fees, he should have trade value.
- Joely Rodriguez (32)
Injuries have limited Rodriguez to only 11 innings this year, during which time he has a 6.55 ERA. The Red Sox shut him down from throwing due to a hip injury back in August. They’re a virtual lock to pay the $500K buyout rather than pick up Rodriguez’s $4.25MM option.
- Justin Wilson (36)
Wilson signed a big league deal last winter while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Brewers were likely intrigued by the new slider he’d unveiled with the Reds in a tiny sample of 3 2/3 innings during the 2022 season. Wilson whiffed seven of his 13 opponents with a mammoth 18.5% swinging-strike rate before hitting the injured list and requiring surgery. Wilson completed a 14-month rehab only to suffer a lat strain while warming up in the bullpen for his return to a big league mound. That injury ended his season, and it’s likely the Brewers will decline his $2.5MM option in favor of a $150K buyout.
Veteran Depth and Bounceback Hopefuls
- Fernando Abad (37), Richard Bleier (37), Amir Garrett (32), T.J. McFarland (35), Daniel Norris (31), Drew Pomeranz (34), Chasen Shreve (33)
All of these 30-something hurlers have had big league experience in the past. Abad was a quality middle reliever from 2013-17 but has just 37 big league innings since (6 1/3 coming with the Rockies this year). The soft-tossing Bleier was rocked in Boston this year but had a 3.09 ERA with the O’s and Marlins from 2020-22. Garrett has a history of missing bats for the Reds, but his longstanding command issues worsened with the Royals over the past two seasons. McFarland is a ground-ball specialist with good command but one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. Norris has missed bats in the past but also been quite homer-prone. Pomeranz was one of the game’s best lefty relievers but hasn’t pitched since 2021 due to injury. Shreve’s career 3.97 ERA is solid, but he’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis recently.
This group figures to draw plenty of interest in minor league free agency over the winter but might have a hard time finding a guaranteed deal due to recent struggles and/or health woes.
Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher.
All stats through play Thursday.
Giants Notes: Alexander, Junis, Bailey
Prior to tonight’s game against the Dodgers, the Giants announced that they had placed left-hander Scott Alexander on the 15-day injured list with a strained left hamstring, with MLB.com noting that the veteran reliever will be sidelined for the remainder of the 2023 season, not just the minimum 15 days that would allow Alexander to return in time for the NLDS should the Giants manage to sneak into a postseason spot. Replacing Alexander on the club’s active roster is outfielder Heliot Ramos, who has slashed .208/.269/.354 in 20 games with the Giants this year.
After posting a dominant 1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work during his first season in San Francisco last year, the 33-year-old lefty returned to less impressive results, with a 4.66 ERA in 48 1/3 innings this year. That being said, his 3.26 FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA, indicating that there may be some bad luck baked into his below average (92 ERA+) run prevention numbers. Overall, Alexander sports a 3.70 ERA and 3.16 FIP in 72 career appearances with the Giants. A free agent at the end of the season, Alexander figures to be one of the more reliable left-handed relief options on the open market this offseason.
Alexander isn’t the only Giants arm dealing with injury woes of late, however, as right-hander Jakob Junis exited tonight’s game due to what the club has described as neck tightness, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. After an uneven first season in San Francisco last year during which he posted a 4.42 ERA with a 3.65 FIP over 112 innings of work, Junis has settled into a versatile relief role where he mixes between long relief and single-inning appearances. In this role, he’s posted a 3.93 ERA across 84 2/3 innings with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.8%. Like Alexander, Junis figures to hit the open market this offseason, and could receive interest as both a starter and a reliever.
As discussed by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, injury situations aren’t the only issues plaguing the Giants this late in the season. Catcher Patrick Bailey, who has caught more games this season than ever before in his career, told Slusser that at this point in the season that he is “experiencing more fatigue than [he’s] ever felt before,” a situation that’s surely factoring into the 24-year-old rookie’s downturn in performance in recent weeks. Dating back to the middle of August, Bailey has slashed a meager .174/.245/.244 with a 34% strikeout rate in his last 94 trips to the plate. Slusser adds that Bailey’s typically strong defense has also taken a hit recently, as he’s committed three errors and allowed four passed balls in the month of September.
Looking ahead to 2024, the backup catcher position figures to be something of a question mark for the Giants, with Bailey having caught 82% of the club’s games since being called up back in May. Former top prospect Joey Bart and Rule 5 draft pick Blake Sabol both figure to be internal options available to San Francisco, though it would hardly be a surprise to see the club pursue a more established back-up option like Victor Caratini or Tom Murphy in free agency to help ease Bailey into the workload of a wire-to-wire big league season.
Kyle Hendricks’s Return To Form
When thinking about bounceback seasons on the 2023 Chicago Cubs, you’d be forgiven for seeing the excellent season Cody Bellinger is putting together giving it your full attention. After all, the former NL MVP was one of the worst regulars in baseball over the past two seasons and has bounced back to not only be an above-average regular but the best hitter set to hit the free agent market this side of Shohei Ohtani. If you look a little further down the club’s WAR leaderboard, however, you’ll find there’s another player on the team who received award voting recognition early in his career for whom things seemingly started to come apart at the seams over the past two seasons, only for him to rebound in a big way in 2023 with a unexpectedly strong season. That player is right-handed veteran Kyle Hendricks.
The lone remaining player of Chicago’s 2016 World Series core, Hendricks was once one of the best starters in the majors in terms of sheer run prevention. Between the years of 2016 and 2020, only five pitchers with at least 500 innings of work posted a lower ERA than Hendricks: Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber. Unlike the five multi-time Cy Young winners ahead of him, Hendricks has never been looked at as on the shortlist of the best pitchers in the league. While Hendricks finished third in Cy Young award voting in 2016 behind Scherzer and teammate Jon Lester, he’s only received votes one other time in his career and has never made an All Star game.
The main culprit for that is his lack of strikeouts. Even during his 2016-20 peak he ranked among the league’s bottom 20 hurlers in terms of strikeout rate, and his fastball hasn’t average 90 mph since his sophomore season as a big league regular back in 2016. Hendricks made up for that during his peak years with pinpoint control (5.3% walk rate), a strong 46.6% groundball rate, and a penchant for suppressing the long ball (11.5% HR/FB). Still, those positive traits couldn’t completely outweigh his lack of strikeouts and left him with a 3.60 FIP that, while strong, was more in the realm of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell than Kershaw and deGrom.
Unfortunately for Hendricks, his dominance in terms of run prevention wouldn’t last. The 2021 and 2022 seasons proved to be brutal ones for Hendricks, as he not only was a below average starting pitcher for the first time in his career but dealt with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder during 2022 that left him shut down partway through the year. Across his 265 1/3 innings of work those two seasons, the results were nothing short of ugly: his 4.78 ERA with a 4.87 FIP in that time were 16% and 18% worse than the league average, respectively. Meanwhile, his peripheral numbers declined across the board his strikeout rate dipped from the 21.1% of his peak years to just 17.3%, his walk rate climbed to 6%, his groundball rate dropped to 41%, and he began to allow home runs on 14.8% of his fly balls.
Heading into the 2023 season, it was fair to wonder if the tightrope act of Hendricks’s early career, where he managed to get elite results despite a fastball that would’ve been slower than average 20 years ago thanks to excellent command and quality of contact numbers, was over. After all, he was pairing a bottom ten strikeout rate in the majors with a 8.8% barrel rate that was lower than only 26 other players with at least 200 innings of work between those years, figures that put him in the same conversation as Zach Plesac and Dallas Keuchel. Chicago’s $14.5MM decision on Hendricks’s $16MM club option for 2024 figured to be declined without as much as a second thought.
Ever since making his season debut in May, however, Hendricks appears to have climbed right back up on the tightrope. The now 33-year-old righty has posted a 3.66 ERA that’s 24% better than league average with a 3.80 FIP across 23 starts (132 2/3 innings of work) this season. Those top level numbers put him in the same conversation as quality mid-rotation arms like Charlie Morton, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez. A look at his peripheral numbers mostly backs up the veteran’s return to form, as well: his 4.3% walk rate this season is the best of his career in a 162-game season, and his 45.2% groundball rate is a top-25 figure in the majors that appears in the same conversation as players like Ohtani and Corbin Burnes.
That said, there are still some potential red flags. Most obviously, Hendricks is striking out less batters than ever before this year, even by his own standards. His strikeout rate is ninth-worst among pitchers with at least 130 innings this year, and no other pitcher in the bottom ten is above average by both ERA- and FIP-. Meanwhile, his 8.7% HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career, indicating that some regression should be expected in that regard. His barrel rate has dropped from the 8.8% figure he posted the last two years, which is a positive sign, but 6.4% figure is still a far cry from the 4.3% he posted in his prime.
Between Hendricks’s quality mid-rotation production in 2023, his track record as something of a unicorn in the modern game, and these potential red flags when digging into his profile, that aforementioned $14.5MM decision the Cubs face on his 2024 option figures to be one of the more interesting decisions a club will be faced with this offseason. Should his option be declined, the veteran righty figures to add another intriguing arm to what’s already an unusually deep free agent class when it comes to starting pitching. Regardless of what the future holds for Hendricks, though, his rebound has been one of the biggest surprises for a Cubs team that has surpassed expectations across the board this season.