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Guardians Sign Josh Bell

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December 12: The Guardians have made it official, announcing that they have signed Bell to a two-year deal.

December 6: The Guardians have agreed to a two-year, $33MM contract with free-agent first baseman Josh Bell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Bell, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be able to opt out of the contract after the first season of the deal.

Josh Bell

It’s a short-term but lucrative annual deal for the 30-year-old Bell, who looked poised for a long-term commitment in free agency before a sluggish finish to the season following a trade to the Padres. The veteran switch-hitter opened the season on a tear with the Nationals and maintained that production into late July, but after slashing .301/.384/.493 with the Nats (143 wRC+), Bell hit just .192/.316/.271 in San Diego.

Ups and downs are nothing new for Bell, who at multiple points in his career has appeared on the cusp of solidifying himself as a star-caliber slugger, only to fall into a prolonged slump. Back in the first half of the 2019 season, for instance, the former No. 61 overall draft pick erupted with a .302/.376/.648 batting line and 27 home runs. That netted him what remains the only All-Star nomination of his career, but following the Midsummer Classic, Bell backtracked with a solid but unspectacular .233/.351/.429 slash.

His offensive doldrums spiraled out of control in 2020, when he turned in a career-worst .226/.305/.364 slash in the shortened 2020 season. Following that disappointing campaign, the Pirates sold low on the former top prospect by flipping his final two years of club control to the Nationals in exchange for righty Wil Crowe and minor leaguer Eddy Yean.

A month into Bell’s Nationals tenure, it looked to be more of the same, but he righted the ship in May. From May 1, 2021 through this year’s trade deadline, Bell came to the plate 945 times and recorded a stout .289/.373/.489 slash with 39 big flies, 46 doubles, an 11.5% walk rate and a 15.3% strikeout rate that’s far lower than many would expect from a 6’4″, 255-pound first baseman with 30-homer power.

In spite of that sizable frame and the clear raw power Bell possesses, however, he’s never really been a consistent power threat — at least not to the extent one would expect. The juiced-ball season in 2019 was his lone 30-homer campaign (37, to be exact), and his season-to-season home run totals have otherwise ranged between 12 (2018) and 27 (2021).

It’s hard not to wonder what might happen were Bell to commit to elevating the ball more, but that’s easier said than done for any hitter. Bell’s enormous 49.9% ground-ball rate is far higher than one would expect for a slugger of his stature, and he’s taken that mark north of 50% in each of the past three seasons, topping out with a mammoth 55.7% grounder rate in 2022. Since 2020, only five hitters in baseball have put the ball on the ground more frequently than Bell — a confounding trait for a switch-hitter with plus raw power. Three different teams have been unable to coax consistent power production from Bell, but the Guardians will give their best effort to unlock his maximum potential.

To be clear, Bell remains a well above-average hitter in the aggregate, even with the glut of grounders and a career punctuated thus far by peaks and valleys. Dating back to 2019, he’s been 20% better than the average hitter by measure of wRC+, and his career mark in that regard sits at 116 (16% better than average). Bell is a lifetime .262/.351/.459 hitter whose only below-average season at the plate came in the shortened 2020 season.

Also appealing to the Guardians was surely the fact that Bell, like so much of their team, is exceedingly difficult to strike out. No team in baseball fanned at a lower clip than the Guardians’ 18.2% last year — nor was anyone particularly close. Bell, who struck out at just a 15.8% rate in 2022, should fit right in. He’s kept his strikeout rate at 19% or lower each season other than that grisly 2020 campaign, and he’s also drawn walks in an excellent 11.8% of his 3406 career plate appearances.

All of that aligns well with Cleveland’s general offensive philosophy, and while it seems that Jose Abreu was the Guards’ first choice — Cleveland reportedly made him a three-year offer before he signed in Houston — Bell still adds some needed thump who can join Josh Naylor in splitting time at designated hitter and first base. Bell isn’t an all-world defender at first, but he’s improved his defensive ratings from sub-par to slightly above average in recent seasons, and the Guardians surely feel confident that he’s a reliable source of at least 15 to 20 homers with a robust on-base percentage. He’ll join Jose Ramirez as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order threat, continuing to give the Cleveland lineup plenty of balance.

If things go according to plan and Bell can ward off another prolonged slump to close out the season, he’ll be a strong candidate to exercise that opt-out provision and return to the open market a year from now. As previously laid out, the overall offensive track record for Bell is quite strong; had he not fallen into that San Diego swoon, he and Boras might have had a case for a contract upwards of five years in length. Depending on the extent of Bell’s success, the Guardians could even issue him a qualifying offer upon opting out.

We predicted that Bell would still be able to command a four-year deal around this AAV on our Top 50 free agent rankings, but the two-year term and opt-out provides some of the best of both worlds. If Bell performs well, he can collect a hearty salary in 2022 and try again for a lengthier deal a year from now. If not, he’ll at least have a second season around the going rate for a bat-first slugger of this nature. And, even if he forgoes the opt-out next offseason, a strong 2024 showing could position him for a multi-year deal.

From a payroll vantage point, Cleveland had ample room to plug him into the mix — history of low payrolls notwithstanding. Bell, assuming an even distribution of his $33MM guarantee, pushes the Guardians to just $35.3MM in guaranteed salary next season. Add in another $35.7MM in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players (tip of the cap to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Guardians will sit around the $87MM mark next season — at least as things currently stand.

The Guardians opened the 2021 season with just a $49.6MM payroll and were at $68.2MM to begin the 2022 campaign, but they won the AL Central in ’22 and are only five years removed from trotting out an Opening Day payroll of nearly $135MM. At least on paper, there should be room to make further additions, though that’ll depend on ownership’s willingness to further ramp up payroll as they look to repeat in a weak division.

Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski

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My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.

With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.

Five BHPs In The News

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA

The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.

Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA

The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.

Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394

Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344

No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.

Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.

Five More

Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.

Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.

Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.

Giants Continuing Rodon Pursuit Even After Manaea Deal

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The Giants’ agreement with lefty Sean Manaea appeared to give them a full rotation, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that even after guaranteeing Manaea $25MM over the next two years (with an opt-out after year one), San Francisco remains engaged with Rodon and agent Scott Boras about a potential reunion.

Manaea, 31 in February, can join Logan Webb, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani in comprising a prototypical five-man rotation, but there ought to be room for Rodon on the roster even with that quintet in place. That’s true both because Rodon is a clear upgrade over the majority (arguably all five) of those in-house arms, and also because the internal group comes with a fair bit of injury risk and health uncertainty.

DeSclafani, for instance, was limited to just 19 innings this past season, thanks to a tendon injury in his ankle that eventually required surgical repair. Each of Wood, Cobb and Webb made at least 26 starts, but Cobb and Wood also have lengthy injury histories. Cobb pitched just 158 total innings from 2019-21, owing to groin, back and wrist strains. Wood has made 26 starts in consecutive seasons now, but he pitched just 12 2/3 innings in 2020 and just 35 2/3 innings in 2019 due to back and shoulder injuries. Even Webb, who worked a team-high 192 1/3 innings in 2022, missed a few weeks in 2021 while battling a minor shoulder strain.

No team can be realistically expected to navigate an entire 162-game season with only five starters. While the Giants have some depth with swingman Jakob Junis and minor leaguers Sean Hjelle, Thomas Szapucki, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn all on the 40-man roster, they also have ample payroll space to make a Rodon-sized splash and figure out the allotment of innings at a later date. Roster Resource projects a $151MM payroll for the upcoming season and a luxury-tax ledger that’s a bit higher ($168.3MM) but nowhere near the first tier of penalization, which begins at $233MM in 2023.

Rodon was reported earlier in the offseason to be seeking a six-year deal worth more $30MM-plus on an annual basis, and Slusser more recently reported that he and Boras have been seeking at least seven years. What’s not clear is whether that shift in length of desired contract comes with a shift in the per-year asking price. We’ve seen teams this offseason increasingly show a willingness to stretch contracts to greater lengths as a means of tamping down AAV. Clubs had been moving away from longer-term, lower-AAV deals for some time — Bryce Harper being a notable exception — instead showing a preference for shorter-term deals at high annual values. That hasn’t been the case this winter, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo and Jacob deGrom all signing lengthier deals than expected but at lesser annual rates of pay than their highest-paid peers at their respective positions.

Put more simply, if Rodon and Boras set out seeking $180-200MM in total guarantees this winter but were having difficulty finding that, it’s at least possible that the shift toward a deal of seven-plus years in length might be more about reaching that $180MM-plus benchmark than about now seeking seven years at $30MM-plus per season. A seven-year deal worth $185MM, as a purely speculative example, wouldn’t line up with the previously reported AAV target for Rodon but would ensure his place among the ten highest-compensated free agent pitchers in MLB history.

Of course, anything in that vicinity would still shatter most industry expectations heading into the offseason. Two months ago, the most common question regarding Rodon was if he’d done enough to secure a sixth guaranteed year or would need to “settle” for a five-year contract. While reports of Rodon pursuing six, seven or even more years at or near the $30MM AAV threshold don’t serve as a guarantee that he’ll eventually reach those heights, they still represent a departure from where his market was expected to land.

In many ways, that’s a microcosm of the free-agent market at large since the offseason ended. Teams have been willing to spend far more freely than in recent winters, as last March’s collective bargaining agreement assured five years of labor peace and also gave front offices and owners clarity on where the luxury-tax thresholds will sit for the foreseeable future.

Beyond Rodon, the Giants are also known to be keenly interested in shortstop Carlos Correa — their top target after missing on free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge. Whether they’re willing to pony up and make commitments to both Rodon and Correa isn’t clear, though it’d certainly register as a surprise, as that pairing could wind up costing something in the range of $450-500MM combined.

The Opener: Correa, Rodon, Trade Market

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Fresh off the heels of an overnight signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. When will the Correa market heat up?

Now that Xander Bogaerts is in San Diego and Trea Turner is in Philadelphia — both on 11-year contracts — Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last two stars standing on the free agent shortstop market. With Swanson’s market potentially held up due to Correa’s lingering presence on the market, it begs the question of when Correa will sign. So far, the Giants, Cubs, and incumbent Twins appear to be Correa’s top suitors, while the Dodgers are known to be out of the Correa market. Correa’s market was likely being held up, to some extent, by San Francisco’s pursuit of Aaron Judge, but his market has remained fairly quiet since Judge agreed to a nine-year deal with the Yankees last week. It’s worth noting that in previous offseasons, agent Scott Boras has frequently been willing to allow negotiations for his top clients to stretch well into the new year in order to ensure they receive the best possible offer.

2. Rodon stands alone

With Kodai Senga set to pitch in Queens next season, the top pitcher on the market, Carlos Rodon, stands as not only the last remaining ace on the free agent market, but also the youngest option available, having just celebrated his 30th birthday over the weekend. The incumbent Giants could be moving on from Rodon, based on their late-night deal with Sean Manaea. Rodon, who is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal, still has plenty of rumored options available. The Yankees, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, and Blue Jays have all been mentioned as having interest in Rodon, while the Cardinals may be entering the market for the ace as well. The Mets and Rangers were previously known to have interest in Rodon, as well. However, the Mets have agreed to deals with three starters (Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Senga), while the Rangers have since signed both Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. It’s possible neither is aggressively pursuing Rodon at this point. With the rest of the top pitching market largely decided, Rodon may be the next domino to fall at the top of the free agent market this offseason. Chris Bassitt and Nathan Eovaldi are among the best alternative options available for teams in need of pitching who don’t land Rodon.

3. How long will the trade market stay dormant?

This year’s Winter Meetings saw a bonanza of activity on the free agent market, with over $2 billion in spending on free agents. That activity masked a trade market that’s been very quiet this offseason, and figures to heat up now that so many free agents have come off the board. The trade market is particularly flush with catchers, as Oakland has made Sean Murphy available while Toronto has fielded interest on their catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. There’s also a fair number of rumors on the outfield market, with Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade from the Pirates, the Twins drawing some interest in Max Kepler, and the Diamondbacks listening on their surplus of outfield talent. Elsewhere on the market, the Reds are reportedly interested in dealing some of their surplus of infield prospects for outfield prospects, while the Marlins are known to be entertaining offers on much of their pitching staff, including Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers. As teams begin to exhaust payroll space and as the supply of impact free agents continues to dwindle, trade talks figure to escalate.

Reds Looking To Trade Shortstop Prospects For Outfield Prospects

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Reds general manager Nick Krall has said that his team has at least looked into some trades that would involve the Reds and another club swapping young, controllable players.  Providing further detail to Krall’s comments, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears from a rival executive that Cincinnati is looking to acquire a young outfielder in exchange for a younger shortstop prospect, and that the Reds “are aggressively pursuing” such deals.

Over the last year, the Reds turned into rebuild mode by trading multiple veteran players (i.e. Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley) in order to reduce payroll and restock the system with minor league talent.  On paper, the early steps of this plan have worked quite nicely — back in August, Baseball America placed the Reds fifth in their rankings of each organization’s minor league talent depth.  Both BA and MLB Pipeline have five Cincinnati prospects listed in their current top-100 rankings, with shortstop Elly De La Cruz sitting at the top of the pile.  Pipeline has De La Cruz as the 14th-best prospect in the sport, with Baseball America placing De La Cruz 20th.

With De La Cruz as the crown jewel, the Reds already had a good amount of infield prospect depth even before their moves at this past summer’s trade deadline.  Cincy landed Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo from the Mariners in the Castillo trade, and Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were then acquired from the Twins as part of the Mahle deal.  Marte and Arroyo both sit firmly within the top 100 rankings (Pipeline has Marte 17th, not far behind De La Cruz), while Steer already made his MLB last season and is likely headed for more regular playing time in 2023.

Steer is more of a second baseman or third baseman than a shortstop, and Encarnacion-Strand is more firmly a corner infielder.  It also remains to be seen if Marte will necessarily remain at shortstop, or if De La Cruz might even be moved to a outfield role — as Rosenthal notes, the Reds have been experimenting with several of their young infielders at various positions around the diamond and on the grass to try and find playing time for everyone.

That said, while some of these prospects may eventually wind up in the outfield in the future, the Reds seem interested in simplifying the matter and dealing from their infield surplus to find some true outfielders.  Adding to the intrigue is that many of Cincinnati’s prospects are knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, as De La Cruz, Encarnacion-Strand, and 2021 first-rounder Matt McLain could all get their first cup of coffee in the Show in 2023.

With high-caliber prospects to offer, the Reds can explore plenty of possible trade options around the league.  In regards to their focus on outfielders, the Diamondbacks seem like a logical trade partner, and Cincinnati is naturally one of the many clubs interested in the group of Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, and Dominic Fletcher.  All of these players except Fletcher have already debuted in the majors, and since the D’Backs are prioritizing players who can help them immediately, Arizona might prefer a more established player rather than another up-and-comer from Cincy’s farm system.

It is probably safe to assume that whatever trades the Reds consider, their blue chip prospects are less likely to be on the move, and a burgeoning star like De La Cruz is virtually untouchable.  A month away from his 21st birthday, De La Cruz has quickly gone from being an anonymous international signing to one of baseball’s top prospects over the last two seasons, and even a possible five-tool talent.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently spoke with minor league players, coaches, broadcasters and scouts about De La Cruz, and the shortstop garnered rave reviews across the board.  According to one AL scout, “He’s the most athletic player I’ve ever seen.  I could throw out some legendary names of athletes, but I’d rather not because I don’t want to put extra pressure on a kid.  But I’ve never seen anybody even close with his athleticism to be quite honest.”

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Sign Addison Russell, Eric Jokisch

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The Kiwoom Heroes of the KBO League have signed shortstop Addison Russell and re-signed left-hander Eric Jokisch to contracts for the 2023 season, according to reports out of South Korea.  (Hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net).  Jokisch will receive $1.5MM, while Russell receives $700K.

This is Russell’s second KBO stint, after previously playing 65 games with the Heroes during the 2020 season.  Russell hit .254/.317/.336 over 271 plate appearances that year, and the Heroes didn’t renew Russell’s contract after the season was up.  Russell has spent the last two seasons posting big numbers with Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League.

Once one of baseball’s top prospects, Russell spent five seasons with the Cubs (2015-19) and was an important part of the team’s 2016 World Series championship club.  However, in 2018, Russell was issued a 40-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Join Domestic Violence Policy, in the wake of the league’s investigation into accusations made by Russell’s ex-wife of physical and verbal abuse during their marriage.  The Cubs chose to tender Russell a contract following the 2018 season, but non-tendered the shortstop following the 2019 campaign.

Jokisch’s Major League resume consists of four games and 14 1/3 innings with the Cubs back in 2014, and he also pitched in the minors with the Marlins, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Athletics over the course of his nine seasons in affiliated baseball.  The southpaw then signed with the Heroes prior to the 2019 season, and has become a staple for the Seoul-based club, posting a 2.72 ERA over 701 2/3 innings and 117 starts for the Heroes over the last four seasons.

Jokisch turns 34 in July, and with such a comfortable niche carved out for himself in the KBO League, it remains to be seen if he’ll ever explore a return to North American baseball.  There was some indication that MLB teams were interested in the lefty during the 2020-21 offseason, but he ended up returning to the Heroes.

Latest On Tigers’ Offseason Targets

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The Tigers have a lot of upgrades to make following a 96-loss season, and the club is exploring several veteran options on the free agent market.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that such players as Seth Lugo, Adam Frazier, Brian Anderson, and Edwin Rios have all drawn interest from the Tigers, and Wil Myers is also on the radar, but “the Tigers aren’t viewed as a frontrunner for Myers.”  As for players who have already landed elsewhere, Detroit also had interest in Jace Peterson before he signed with the Athletics during the Winter Meetings.

Signing any of the available players would add some experience to the lineup and address at least one position on a roster with plenty of uncertainty.  Third base is open after Jeimer Candelario was non-tendered, and Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told Petzold and other reporters during the Winter Meetings that second base playing time may also be available, depending on where Jonathan Schoop is utilized.  Hinch suggested that Schoop could also see time at first base or third base, apart from just the keystone.

Realistically, Schoop is more likely to spend most of his time on the right side of the diamond, given that his big league third base experience consists of 133 2/3 innings with the Orioles back in 2014, and a single inning at the hot corner in 2021.  Schoop (like many Detroit hitters) is also coming off a dismal year at the plate, and since he is only under contract through 2023, might not be in the long-term plans of new president of baseball operations Scott Harris.

Frazier has mostly played second base throughout his career, but he has also bounced around to both corner outfield positions, and a smattering of games at third base, shortstop, and center field.  Signing Frazier would allow the Tigers some flexibility in planning the lineup, as Frazier or Schoop or rookie Ryan Kreidler could be shuffled around the infield as matchups dictate, and Frazier could also chip in as part of the outfield mix.

Of course, Frazier also didn’t hit much in 2022, batting .238/.301/.311 with three homers over 602 plate appearances with the Mariners.  Since the start of the 2020 season, Frazier has a 95 wRC+ and a .266/.329/.362 slash line over 1471 PA with the Pirates, Padres, and Mariners, and much of his production in that stretch was concentrated within a fantastic three-month stretch with Pittsburgh early in the 2021 campaign (which helped Frazier earn an All-Star nod).

Despite these struggles, Frazier is looking for a two-year contract, according to Petzold.  An argument can be made that Frazier (who turns 31 later this week) might still be worth such a commitment since he is a strong defender, and he has consistently been one of baseball’s tougher hitters to strike out.  While Frazier’s extreme contact doesn’t result in many hard-hit balls, the potential is there for Frazier to become a very productive hitter if he can just barrel the ball with more consistency.  Given how the Tigers had one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball in 2022, simply getting a contact hitter of any ilk might also help Detroit’s offensive woes.

Anderson and Rios were respectively non-tendered by the Marlins and Dodgers, and while both players have experience at other positions (Anderson mostly in right field, Rios at first base), the Tigers would probably view either as candidates to take over from Candelario at third base.  Like Frazier, these two are also looking to bounce back from underwhelming seasons, as Anderson and Rios both missed time to injury.

After posting solid numbers in 2018-20, it seemed like Anderson was on his way to becoming a building block in Miami before injuries cut into his playing time in each of the last two seasons.  Anderson hit .266/.350/.436 (115 wRC+) over 1419 PA from 2018-20, but those numbers dropped to a 93 wRC+ and a .233/.321/.359 slash line over 647 PA in 2021-22.

Rios is an intriguing wild card option, as he owns a career 112 wRC+ but only over 291 career PA in the majors.  The Dodgers used Rios as a part-time player for four seasons, and while it is quite possible he might’ve earned more playing time on a less star-studded team, Los Angeles seemingly never saw Rios as more than a spare part.  Injuries also played a factor, as Rios missed most of the 2021 campaign due to shoulder surgery, and a hamstring tear last season resulted in a trip to the 60-day injured list.

While it doesn’t seem like Myers will be arriving in Detroit, he is an on-paper fit for playing time as a right fielder, DH, and first baseman.  Spencer Torkelson will naturally get every opportunity for regular at-bats at first base next season, but Schoop might also get some first-base time, and Miguel Cabrera and Austin Meadows will get DH at-bats.  A player like Myers would be an option for right field when Meadows is getting a DH day, plus Myers could also shift over to left field.

The Tigers are the latest of many teams linked to Lugo’s market, and Detroit is one of the clubs with interest in Lugo as a starting pitcher.  The right-hander has worked exclusively as a reliever in three of the last four seasons with the Mets, and he hasn’t been a true full-time starter since 2017.  However, Lugo has kept his arm relatively loose as a swingman and multi-inning reliever, and naturally a move back to rotation work could be very lucrative as he enters free agency for the first time.

Given how the Tigers were crushed by pitching injuries in 2022, the club can offer plenty of opportunity to Lugo as it looks to rebuild its rotation.  With so much interest in his services, it isn’t hard to imagine that Lugo could land a two-year contract, as a team could view him as a starting candidate for 2023 and (if things don’t go well) at worst a reliever for 2024.  If Lugo succeeds as a starter and the Tigers’ younger arms all return healthy down the road, such a crowded-rotation scenario counts as a nice problem to have for the team in the future.

Detroit already brought back Matt Boyd on a one-year contract, with Boyd also looking for a move back to starting pitching.  The Tigers’ current rotation lines up as Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull, and Boyd, with Joey Wentz, Tyler Alexander, Alex Faedo, and Beau Brieske all in competition for that fifth starter’s job.

In the bigger picture, none of Detroit’s free agent targets look to receive more than a one- or perhaps a two-year deal at most.  This speaks to Harris’ apparent strategy (or ownership’s preference) of avoiding any big immediate expenditures, as the Tigers flopped after last winter’s major spending spree.  The plan for 2023 might be for Harris and the Tigers to patch holes with some veteran additions, and then see how the roster — both the younger core and veteran stars like Rodriguez or Javier Baez — can collectively regroup after the disastrous 2022 season.

KBO’s LG Twins Walk Away From Deal With Abraham Almonte

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TODAY: According to reports out of South Korea, the LG Twins have pulled out of the contract, due to an issue following Almonte’s physical.

DECEMBER 5: The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization have announced a one-year contract with outfielder Abraham Almonte.  (Hat tip to reporter Sung Min Kim.)  Almonte will receive $400K in salary, a $100K signing bonus, and up to $300K in incentive bonuses.

The 33-year-old Almonte is a veteran of the last 10 Major League seasons, suiting up with seven different teams at the MLB level and also spending some time in the minors with the Brewers’ and Yankees’ farm systems.  Of Almonte’s 455 career games in the Show, 187 were played with Cleveland from 2015-17, and his next highest total was 70 games with the Padres over parts of three seasons.

Almonte consistently found work as a backup or part-time outfielder during his journeyman career, due more to his ability to play all three outfield positions than his bat.  While the switch-hitter has a few flashes at the plate, Almonte hit a modest .235/.302/.374 over 1363 Major League plate appearances.  He entered the 2022 season on a minor league deal with the Brewers, but didn’t reach the majors until after he was dealt to the Red Sox in July.

Heading overseas for the first time in his pro career, Almonte now joins the Twins.  Each KBO League team has up to three roster spots dedicated to non-Korean players, and international players can only sign for a $1MM maximum.  An international player’s first KBO contract can also be only one year in length.

Giants Not Currently Considering Chris Bassitt

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TODAY: Bassitt isn’t currently in the Giants’ plans, as Slusser tweets that a pursuit of the right-hander is “not in the cards at the moment.”

DECEMBER 10: The Giants “appear to have interest in” free agent right-hander Chris Bassitt, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Checking in on Bassitt would track with the Giants’ general interest in starting pitching this winter, as they have also been linked to Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and Shintaro Fujinami this winter, and plus Andrew Heaney before Heaney with the Rangers.

There haven’t been too many rumblings on Bassitt to date, though he entered the offseason as one of the top pitching options on the market.  MLBTR rated Bassitt as the fifth-best starter available this winter (and 13th overall on our Top 50 Free Agents list), and of the four pitchers placed ahead of Bassitt, only Rodon and Senga remain, while Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers and Justin Verlander joined the Mets.

In signing Verlander and Jose Quintana, the Mets have already found rotation replacements for deGrom and Taijuan Walker.  Bassitt and the Mets had some mutual interest in a reunion before the offseason began, and given how aggressive New York has been in adding free agents and building payroll, it wouldn’t count as a surprise if the team splurged again to bring Bassitt back to Queens.

That said, recent reports suggest that the Mets don’t have interest in giving Bassitt anything more than three guaranteed years, and the right-hander is still looking for at least a four-year contract.  Bassitt’s desire for such a lengthy commitment might also be a reason why the pitching-needy Blue Jays have only limited interest for now.  The qualifying offer is also surely a factor, as Bassitt rejected the Mets’ QO, and thus any team who signs the righty will have to give up draft compensation.

The Mets and Blue Jays have been the only teams known to have any interest in Bassitt, but it’s probably fair to guess that several other teams in need of pitching have at least made some calls to Bassitt’s reps at Meister Sports Management.  After all, Bassitt did post a 3.42 ERA/3.75 SIERA over 181 2/3 innings with New York last season, with an above-average 6.6% walk rate, a career-best 48.8% grounder rate, and excellent hard-contact numbers.

With top-ten finishes in AL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the Athletics in 2020-21, Bassitt is also from a one-year wonder, and he still projects as a solid starter heading into his age-34 season.  Just based on age alone, however, teams may be a little wary of going beyond a three-year deal, especially a Giants team that has traditionally looked to sign players (especially pitchers) to shorter-term contracts.  Under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco has yet to sign a player to a deal beyond three years.

That said, the Giants did make a concerted effort to sign Aaron Judge this winter, and naturally that contract would’ve gone well beyond three years.  Judge and Bassitt represent very different free agents, yet if San Francisco is getting more aggressive in its pursuits this offseason, it is possible the club might be willing to consider a four-year deal if it’ll clinch a Bassitt signing.

With Logan Webb as the ace, Bassitt could slide into the No. 2 starter role, ahead of Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani.  Adding another starter would allow the Giants to move Jakob Junis back into the preferred role of swingman, and Bassitt in particular would bring durability.  DeSclafani is a bit of a wild card after spending much of the 2022 season on the injured list, and Wood also has a long injury history.  Signing Bassitt would probably take San Francisco out of the running for Rodon, but since Rodon also turned down a qualifying offer, the Giants would get a compensatory pick back if Rodon signed elsewhere, somewhat offsetting the penalty they’d incur for signing Bassitt.

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