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NPB’s Yokohama BayStars To Sign J.B. Wendelken

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The Yokohama BayStars have signed right-hander J.B. Wendelken, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The contract is a one-year deal with an option for 2024, and Wendelken can earn up to $3.05MM, including incentives.

Wendleken elected free agency after the season, ending a stint with the Diamondbacks that began in August 2021 when Arizona claimed him off waivers from the A’s.  The Diamondbacks agreed to an arbitration-avoiding one-year, $835K deal with Wendelken last winter, but he posted only a 5.29 ERA over 29 innings in 2022.  Arizona designated the righty for assignment in July and then outrighted him off the 40-man roster, with Wendelken then spending the remainder of the season at Triple-A Reno.

Beginning his career in Oakland, Wendelken had a solid 2.30 ERA over 74 1/3 relief innings from 2018-20, though his 3.74 SIERA was perhaps more reflective of his overall work.  Wendelken benefited from a very low .218 BABIP in those three seasons, but his fortune changed with a .310 BABIP in 2021 and a dropoff in his strikeout rate.  The right-hander has only a 19% strikeout rate and a unimpressive 11.4% walk rate over 72 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 season, as well as a 4.71 ERA.

With this recent performance, Wendelken might have been hard-pressed to find anything beyond than a minor league deal with an MLB team this winter, so he has instead opted for some guaranteed money and a fresh start in Japan.  Wendelken’s Triple-A numbers are worth noting, as he had a strong 2.63 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate over the small sample size of 24 innings with Reno.  This provides some hope that Wendelken can perhaps get on track with the BayStars, and either continue in NPB or perhaps eventually explore a return to North American baseball.

Marlins To Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach

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The Marlins have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach, as per SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  Brown was one of the Dodgers’ two hitting coaches, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported earlier today that Miami was looking at Brown as the newest member of its staff.

Under new manager Skip Schumaker, the Marlins’ coaching staff will naturally look quite different in 2023.  Brown replaces Marcus Thames (who was hired by the Angels) in the hitting coach position, while Luis Urueta is the new bench coach, Jon Jay is the new first base coach, Jody Reed is the new third base coach, and Rod Barajas is joining the staff as a quality assurance coach.  Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. is staying put, after signing a new multi-year deal back in October.

This isn’t Brown’s first time in a Marlins uniform, as he played 41 games for the Fish back in 2000.  Brown played at the MLB level with the Marlins, Pirates, and (mostly) Cubs over five seasons, and then began his coaching career in 2007.  After a decade as a coach in the Rangers’ and Mariners’ farm system, Brown’s first MLB coaching assignment came prior to the 2018 season, when he joined the Dodgers as an assistant hitting coach.  While some of the specifics of Brown’s title have changed, he and Robert Van Scoyoc have shared the hitting coach duties since 2019.

A powerful and versatile lineup has been one of the keys to the Dodgers’ recent success, but the 51-year-old Brown will now face a new challenge in trying to jumpstart Miami’s lineup.  The Marlins have one of baseball’s more enviable cores of young pitching, yet the team has been unable to pair that pitching with even average offense.  The additions of Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Jacob Stallings, and Joey Wendle last offseason didn’t help matters, and the Marlins are now hoping to have more of a focus on speed and contact hitting heading into 2023.

It remains to be seen how the Dodgers will replace Brown on the coaching staff, but Rosenthal cites assistant coach Aaron Bates as a logical candidate for a promotion, if L.A. sticks to the dual-hitting coach approach.  Bates has been the Dodgers’ assistant hitting coach for the last four seasons, and previously worked as a coach and coordinator from 2015-18 in the Dodgers’ minor league system.

Roberto Osuna To Re-Sign With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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Reliever Roberto Osuna is close to agreeing to a one-year contract with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines for the 2023 season, per Enrique Rojas of ESPN.

Osuna began the 2022 season playing in the Mexican League for the Diablos Rojos del México, tossing 13 1/3 innings of three-run ball while striking out 15 batters and earning six saves, before joining the Marines for the second half of the season. Once in Japan, he threw 32 2/3 innings of 1.37 ERA ball, posting a 37:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, earning sixteen saves, and allowing only a single home run.

Osuna, who will be 28-years-old during the 2023 season, hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2020, when he was outrighted off the Astros’ roster. Osuna had missed much of that season with an elbow injury that limited him to only four appearances. The injury initially came with a recommendation of Tommy John surgery, but a second opinion led him to rebab instead. Now, with two consecutive years of pitching more than 45 innings, Osuna appears fully recovered.

Osuna served a 75-game suspension in 2018 for violating the MLB – MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy. A member of the Blue Jays at that time, he was arrested in Canada and charged with the assault of his then-girlfriend. He later agreed to a one-year peace bond, with the alleged victim withdrawing the charges to resolve the criminal case.

Per the Canadian Department of Justice’s website, peace bonds are generally used when “an individual (the defendant) appears likely to commit a criminal offence, but there are no reasonable grounds to believe that an offence has actually been committed.” The Canadian Department of Justice further adds that peace bonds are obtainable by “any person who fears that another person may injure them, their spouse or common-law partner, or a child, or may damage their property.”

It’s unclear if any major league club has shown interest in bringing Osuna back state-side this offseason. There’s little question of his on-field effectiveness when he is healthy, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll get another MLB opportunity at any point down the line.

Dodgers Have Interest In Xander Bogaerts, Alex Reyes

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The Dodgers have joined the growing list of suitors for four-time All-Star and two-time World Series Champion Xander Bogaerts, according to reporter Marino Pepén. Pepén adds that the Cubs and Twins have also joined Bogaerts’ market, adding to a list that also houses the Phillies, Red Sox, and Padres.

With the departure of Trea Turner, the Dodgers are among the teams looking to secure a shortstop this winter, having recently been connected to the Brewers’ Willy Adames. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts will receive a seven-year, $189MM deal this offseason.

The 30-year-old hit a strong .307/.377/.456 in 2022, witnessing a noticeable drop in power compared to 2021 (23 HRs, .493 slugging in 2021; 15 HRS, .456 slugging in 2022). Nevertheless, Bogaerts posted his fifth-straight season with a wRC+ over 125 and kept his strikeout rate below 19% for the eighth season in a row. Additionally, the nine-year vet posted his strongest defensive season of his career by measure of every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Bogaerts’ glove had been discussed as his primary flaw, having been rated as a below-average defender and a candidate for an eventual position change. His strong defensive 2022 season will likely aid his ability to remain at the premium shortstop position, positioning him for a contract near $200MM.

From a financial standpoint, Bogaerts, along with Dansby Swanson, represent cheaper alternatives to Carlos Correa and Turner (both projected to sign contracts worth more than $250MM by MLBTR). Nevertheless, with the recent non-tendering of Cody Bellinger and the decision to decline Justin Turner’s 2023 club option, the Dodgers currently have only $152MM committed to their 2023 payroll, per RosterResource (after finishing the 2022 season with more than $260MM on their books). A Dodgers/Bogaerts deal would push the team up to $179MM — leaving ample room for another potential blockbuster signing.

The Dodgers have also been linked to free agent reliever Alex Reyes, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the two-time All-Star to receive $2.85MM in his penultimate trip through the arbitration process, but the Cardinals opted to non-tender the flamethrower.

Reyes, who was once ranked as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, has dealt with ailments his entire career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, tore a tendon in his lat in 2018, and underwent shoulder surgery in 2020. After a healthy 2021 season where Reyes earned All-Star honors while pitching to a 3.24 ERA in 72 1/3 innings with a robust 30.0% strikeout rate, albeit with an extremely high 16.4% walk rate, injuries returned. Reyes would be forced to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery in May, wiping out his entire 2022 season.

Despite Reyes having an unclear timetable to return, the Dodgers have earned a reputation for signing injured relievers to multi-year contracts, with the expectation that the player will perform in the later years of the deal. Additionally, Dodgers’ pitching coach Mark Prior has been highly regarded in recent years for his work, with Los Angeles’ bullpen pitching to the second-lowest ERA (2.87), fourth-highest strikeout percentage (26.7%), and second-lowest walk percentage (7.5%) in the entire league.

Padres Sign Julio Teheran To Minor League Deal

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Veteran right-hander Julio Teherán has signed with the Padres on a minor league deal, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The contract could pay Teherán up to $6MM if he reaches the majors and maxes out the incentives on the deal. Teherán is represented by Mato Sports Management. 

A two-time All-Star, Teherán returns to the National League, where he had previously spent nine seasons with the Braves, pitching to a 3.67 ERA in 1360 innings, before departing to join the Angels in 2020 and the Tigers in 2021. His tenure with the Angels was less successful, as the righty pitched to a 10.05 ERA in 31 1/3 innings with a poor 13.4% strikeout rate and a high 10.7% walk rate. Despite these substandard results, Detroit signed the hurler to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Teherán would eventually join the major league roster but would be shut down for the season with a right shoulder strain after a single start. 

The 31-year-old, joined the Staten Island FerryHawkes of the Atlantic League for the 2022 season before having his contract purchased by the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League. The Toros de Tijuana released Teherán in August, but he would soon latch on with the Sultanes de Monterrey, also of the Mexican League. Over the 2022 season, Teherán pitched 68 innings across 13 starts, posting a 3.57 ERA with a 56:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  

The 11-year MLB vet will look to find a spot on San Diego’s staff, who have seen starters Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea depart to free agency. However, Nick Martinez figures to earn some starts with his new contract and the Friars have been connected to highly sought-after free agent pitcher Koudai Senga, potentially leaving Teherán as a Triple-A depth piece. 

Aristides Aquino Signs With NPB’s Chunichi Dragons

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10:30 AM: Hector Gomez of Z101 Digital adds that Aquino’s deal is one-year, $1.2MM with an additional $300K of possible incentives.

10:20 AM: Outfielder Aristides Aquino has signed with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. It’s Aquino’s first stint overseas, who had previously spent parts of the last five seasons with the Cincinnati Reds.

Aquino, 28, made his debut during the 2018 season, earning a single at-bat, before reaching free agency and re-signing on a minor league deal with the Reds. He would eventually join the team in a more permanent role during the 2019 season, slashing .259/.316/.576 with 19 homers in 205 at-bats while posting serviceable strikeouts (26.7%) and walk (7.1%) rates. During that stretch, the right-handed hitter hit 13 homers in his first 100 plate appearances, setting an MLB record.

His success soon faded, and Aquino would spend the 2020 season bouncing between the major league club and the Reds’ alternative training site. More recently, Aquino hit a weak .194/.269/.381 with 20 homers across the 2021 and 2022 seasons (433 at-bats) with a poor 36.7% strikeout rate and a strong 9.2% walk rate. He was designated for assignment two weeks ago, as the Reds adjusted their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 Draft.

It’s possible that Aquino has a strong enough performance in Japan to draw some new major league interest in the future, for it was only a few seasons ago that he showcased his immense power. Nevertheless, he will now turn to the Dragons as an outfield option with a career .300/.374/.644 line at the Triple-A level.

Looking For A Match For Joey Gallo

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After one and a half poor seasons with the Yankees (.159/.291/.368 in 421 at-bats) and the Dodgers (.162/.277/.393 in 117 at-bats), former All-Star Joey Gallo enters free agency looking to reset his career and rediscover his bat. It was only a few years ago that Gallo was one of the most feared hitters in the entire league, mashing .253/.389/.589 with 22 homers in 2019 and hitting a strong .223/.379/.490 with 25 homers in 2021 before being traded to the Yankees. However, instead of earning a lucrative long-term contract this offseason, Gallo will likely be forced to sign a one- or two-year deal as he looks to re-establish himself as a premier outfielder.

Following a weak 2022 season (.160/.280/.357 in 350 at-bats), Gallo will probably be passed over by the more-competitive clubs. However, there are several less-competitive teams that may take a flier on the former All-Star in the hopes that he rekindles his offensive production.

With no guaranteed contracts and amidst a rebuild, the Athletics may view Gallo as a potential mid-season trade chip that will net them some prospects. As mentioned in MLBTR’s Athletics’ Offseason Outlook, at the surface, Oakland only has catcher Sean Murphy and centerfielder Roman Laureano penciled in as starters, with the former being the subject of constant trade rumors this offseason. Cristian Pache also figures to see some time in the outfield, as he is out of minor league options in 2023, and Seth Brown can play first base or a corner outfield position.

But, as best put by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, “Oakland is going to need someone to fill out the lineup.” Laureano (.211/.287/.376) and Pache (.166/.218/.241) were regulars in 2022, but neither provided above-average production. Gallo represents a free agent signing that, if he regains his form in a less stressful environment, may net the As a solid return in a likely non-competitive season.

The Reds are another rebuilding team that may take a flier on the former All-Star. Cincinnati had a revolving-door outfield in 2022, with seven different outfielders coming to the plate at least 200 times. Two of those players, Tommy Pham and Tyler Naquin, were traded away and another two, Aristides Aquino and Albert Almora, have already been designated for assignment (DFA).

That leaves three outfielders who had at least 200 at-bats during the 2022 season on the Reds’ 40-Man roster at this point in the offseason. Nick Senzel (.231/.296/.306) had a below-average season and was a potential DFA candidate ahead of the 40-Man roster deadline. Senzel has had a challenging time remaining on the field, being limited to only 110 games in 2022 and 35 games in 2022. The other two outfielders, TJ Friedl (.240/.314/.436) and Jake Fraley (.259/.344/.468) have limited MLB experience, with Friedl having under one year of service time and Fraley having just over two years.

Perhaps with these circumstances in mind, the Reds recently acquired Nick Solak from the Rangers. Solak, who can play left field and second base, had a strong 2019 season, .293/.393/.491 in 33 games (135 at-bats), but has struggled since then. Most recently during the 2022 season, the soon-to-be 28-year-old hit a measly .207/.309/.329 and was optioned on and off the major league club, only getting into 35 games with the Rangers.

With a lack of health and experience, Cincinnati may look to Gallo as a veteran option. However, both Friedl and Fraley are left-handed hitters and with Gallo also a lefty bat, the Reds may be cautious in trotting out a trio of lefty outfielders.

Turning to the NL East, the Marlins are another team that suffered from a poor outfield during the 2022 season, slashing a collective .216/.284/.365. Miami has already been rumored to be active in the trade market for centerfield help this offseason but may also test the free-agent market. Nevertheless, with Jorge Soler ($24MM through 2023) and Avisail Garcia ($41MM through 2025) manning the corner outfield positions, general manager Kim Ng will likely opt to forgo adding another boom-or-bust outfielder in Gallo.

Staying in the NL East, after finishing the 2022 season at the bottom of the division, trading their All-World talent in Juan Soto, and undergoing a sale, the Nationals are firmly in a rebuild. However, unlike Oakland, Washington is in a state of limbo without direction from ownership. Trades involving Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Josh Bell have netted the organization a plethora of young talent in Robert Hassell, Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, and James Wood, among others, but the organization has stated an intention to upgrade the corner outfield spots.

Victor Robles was Washington’s primary centerfielder in 2022 but slashed a weak .224/.273/.311. Corner outfielder Lane Thomas (.241/.301/.404) had a solid second season with the Nats and will likely continue to have an everyday role with the team. That leaves one open corner outfield spot that can potentially be filled by Gallo. By signing Gallo to a short-term deal, Washington can bridge the gap until top prospects Hassell and Wood reach the majors. Additionally, from a midseason potential trade chip standpoint, the Nats can flip Gallo if the veteran regains his offensive spark, with Hassell (who earned a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg near the end of the 2022 season) projected to join the major league team sometime during the 2023 season.

Lastly, the team that had the worst wRC+ (83) and Gallo’s starting point, the Texas Rangers. Despite signing Corey Seager ($287.5MM through 2031) Marcus Semien ($150MM through 2028), and Jon Gray ($41MM through 2025) to long-term contracts in the 2021-2022 offseason, the Rangers failed to make the playoffs for the sixth straight season, finishing with a 68-94 record. Part of the blame can be attributed to a weak outfield that collectively slashed .226/.287/.353 in 2022.

As discussed in MLBTR’s Rangers’ Offseason Outlook, aside from Adolis Garcia (.250/.300/.456), the Rangers’ outfield utilized Leody Taveras (.261/.309/.366) and Bubba Thompson (.265/.302/.312), along with contributions from Eli White, Josh Smith, and Nick Solak, who has since been traded. Despite Gallo’s weak showing as of late, over parts of seven seasons with the Rangers he has a .211/.336/.497 line with 145 homers. Nevertheless, as touched upon in the Rangers’ Offseason Outlook, general manager Chris Young has already publicly stated that owner Ray Davis has given the green light to increase payroll, albeit with a focus on improving the pitching staff. For a team with considerable financial resources and a hunger to return to postseason competition, the Rangers will likely heavily pursue more prominent free agents, leaving Gallo as an afterthought.

Pivoting to a more general discussion, Gallo will almost surely find himself a spot on a major league roster for the 2023 season. The slugger, who pulls the ball 54.8% of the time, will likely benefit from the removal of the shift, leading to more interest from teams across the league. Nevertheless, Gallo’s recent history of offensive ruin may sour potential suitors and leave him in search of a “prove-it” deal as he looks to rescue his career.

Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley

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Matt Brash’s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness.  Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old.  If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.

Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact.  On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates.  There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player.  Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo.  Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece.  Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances.  It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
  • The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox).  Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter.  Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.

Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Explored Deadline Trade Involving Marco Gonzales, Joey Gallo

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Prior to the August 2 trade deadline, the Mariners, Phillies, and Yankees had some negotiations about a potential three-team swap, according to The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish.  Left-hander Marco Gonzales would’ve headed to Philadelphia and outfielder Joey Gallo “possibly” would’ve been dealt to the Mariners, though it isn’t known what player or players New York would’ve acquired in this proposed deal.

As it turned out, the Yankees instead moved Gallo to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter, with Los Angeles absorbing the roughly $3.7MM remaining on Gallo’s 2022 salary at the time of the deadline.  The Phillies added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation rather than Gonzales, who stayed put in the Pacific Northwest.  Rather than move Gonzales or any other starters, the Mariners instead added to their rotation depth with a blockbuster trade to pry Luis Castillo away from the Reds.

Teams routinely discuss all manner of trades in the days and months prior to deadline day, and it isn’t known if this particular three-team deal (or even some permutation of a deal) was anywhere close to becoming a reality.  However, this floated trade certainly carries plenty of “what if?” consideration given that the three connected teams all made deep playoff runs, with the Phillies in particular reaching the World Series.  Also, given that Gallo is a free agent and Gonzales is still drawing trade interest, it’s worth wondering if those past summer trade talks could influence some moves yet to come this winter.

Let’s begin with Gallo, who struggled through a rough 2022 season but still had some value for a Mariners team that was looking for outfield depth.  In the lead-up to the deadline, Julio Rodriguez was battling wrist problems and Mitch Haniger was still on the 60-day injured list recovering from a high ankle sprain.  Utility options Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also banged up, and the M’s weren’t satisfied with what Jesse Winker or Jarred Kelenic were bringing to the table.  As Divish noted both in this piece and back in July, the M’s were actually exploring trading either Winker or Kelenic.

The two remain trade candidates in the offseason, and the Mariners are still looking for outfield help in general.  However, the M’s have already landed one new everyday corner outfielder in Teoscar Hernandez, and dealt Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks in another trade, so the Seattle outfield picture is quite different than it was back in July and early August.  It isn’t out of the question that the M’s could still make a play to land Gallo, though he might be more of a backup plan if such higher-tier free agents (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi) couldn’t be signed.  Winker, Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell are all left-handed hitters, so it could also be possible Seattle would trade from this surplus before looking into signing Gallo.

Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park might not be the ideal spot for a power-centric player like Gallo to rebuild his value, and the slugger has only a .190/275/.372 slash line over 153 plate appearances at T-Mobile as a visiting player.  That said, Gallo had a 4.2 fWAR season as recently as 2021, and could regain some of his old form simply with another change of scenery after his lackluster showings in New York and Los Angeles.

It was an odd season for Gallo, who had some of the game’s best walk, hard-hit ball, and barrel rates.  He also had a 39.8% strikeout rate (far and away the worst of any player with at least 400 plate appearances), as Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach was carried to absurd extremes.  Unfortunately for Gallo, the third outcome wasn’t quite as extreme, as he hit 19 homers in 401 PA and his .197 Isolated Power metric was well below the .283 career IP he posted from 2015-21.

Gallo struggled whether or not he faced defensive shifts in 2022, and he actually had a better wOBA against the shift than without facing shifts (.350 to .323) in 2021.  That said, the new rules limiting the use of shifts might have at least some impact on improving Gallo’s numbers, given opposing teams regularly deployed the shift against Gallo over 90% of the time.

There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not Seattle could trade at least one of Gonzales or Chris Flexen this winter, since the M’s have been connected to Kodai Senga and Matt Brash is also on hand as a potential fifth starter.  The rest of the rotation is set, with Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby forming an impressive quartet of arms.  Gonzales (who turns 31 in February) is over two years older than Flexen, and is more expensive — Gonzales is owed $6.5MM in 2023 and $12MM in 2024, while Flexen is only under contract through the 2023 season on an $8MM salary.

Given Gonzales’ longer-term contract, the Phillies seemingly had interest in the left-hander as more than just a rental player, so it would stand to reason that he might still be on their radar heading into 2023.  With Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson hitting free agency, the Phillies could use a durable veteran like Gonzales to reinforce the back end of their rotation.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are Philadelphia’s two aces, Ranger Suarez has emerged as a solid starter, and the inexperienced Bailey Falter and Michael Plassmeyer are penciled into the final two rotation spots at the moment.  Top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could both enter the Major League picture before 2023 is out, but with the Phillies in clear win-now mode, relying on Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, and Abel for as many as two rotation spots probably isn’t ideal.  It wouldn’t even be a shock to see the Phils acquire one big-ticket arm to join Nola and Wheeler at the front of the rotation, and then a more moderately-priced hurler like Gonzales as a fifth starter.

Dodgers “Have Shown Interest” In Willy Adames

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The Dodgers “have shown interest” in Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio reports.  The depth of the interest isn’t known, though it does reflect how Los Angeles is keeping tabs on the shortstop market beyond incumbent free agent Trea Turner.

Of course, there also isn’t any guarantee that the Brewers are even open to trading Adames, given how the club has had at least some interest in retaining the slugger on a long-term extension.  However, such an extension would be quite costly for the Brew Crew, and for a lower-payroll team, trading Adames for a bounty of younger players might be a more efficient way for Milwaukee to reload its roster.  The Dodgers have one of the sport’s better farm system, and could offer the Brewers some prospects who could contribute at the MLB level as early as 2023.

Adames has two years of arbitration control remaining, and he is projected to earn $9.2MM in 2023.  Another good season would push his 2024 price tag up into the $13MM range, unless an extension was worked out to overwrite what Adames might earn in his final arb-eligible year.  Since Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are also going to be free agents after the 2024 campaign, it seems likely that the Brewers will be moving at least one of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames before they hit the open market, barring a huge change to their spending approach.

In fact, the Brewers have already increased spending in recent years, as their Opening Day payroll of just under $132MM was the largest in club history.  However, with Christian Yelich’s salary taking up a big chunk of that payroll, the Brewers have largely stuck to their usual tactic of moving on from certain players once their arbitration numbers get too high.  For recent examples, Milwaukee just traded Hunter Renfroe to the Angels earlier this week, and Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres just prior to the August trade deadline.

As former president of baseball operations David Stearns noted in a statement announcing the Hader deal, “this mix of present Major League talent and high-level prospects furthers our aim to get as many bites of the apple as possible and, ultimately, to bring a World Series to Milwaukee….We also recognize that to give our organization the best chance for sustained competitiveness, to avoid the extended down periods that so many organizations experience, we must make decisions that are not easy.”

Moving Adames could be a similarly tough decision for the Brewers and GM Matt Arnold, who is now the top decision-maker in Milwaukee’s front office.  On the one hand, the Brew Crew are surely hopeful of returning to contention in 2023, and having Adames in the lineup (as well as Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation) would give the team a clearer “bite of the apple,” so to speak.  On the flip side, it could be argued that Adames might be just about at the peak of his trade value this offseason, and given how the Hader deal left several Brewers players openly disappointed at the club’s direction, the front office might want to avoid another midseason trade of a key player if the Brewers are anywhere close to contention.

Though the Dodgers will keep talking to Turner’s camp, Toribio feels that “the more realistic option…is that the Dodgers don’t sign any of the top four free-agent shortstops,” referring to Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.  This would either put Gavin Lux in line for the everyday shortstop job in 2023, or L.A. could address the shortstop position via trade, whether for Adames or another player.

Since Adames is only controlled through 2024, he might not necessarily be a longer-term answer either in Los Angeles, though he should still have some prime years remaining since he only turned 27 in September.  The Dodgers could conceivably look into extending Adames themselves, or perhaps instead use him as something of a high-level placeholder.  That would give L.A. time to decide on Lux’s ideal role, or more time to evaluate whether or not shortstop prospects Jacob Amaya or Eddys Leonard can be MLB-caliber players.

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