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The Opener: Hall of Fame, Twins, Angels

By Nick Deeds | November 21, 2022 at 8:49am CDT

As Friday’s non-tender deadline enters the rear-view mirror and the offseason rolls along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

The official Hall of Fame ballot for 2023 is set to be released today, and for the first time in 10 years, it won’t have Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Curt Schilling on it. Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez will be eligible for the first time in 2023, while Jeff Kent enters his final year of eligibility. Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner each received over 50% of the vote last year, and could be names to watch this year in addition to the newcomers. While Alex Rodriguez will enter his second year of eligibility in 2023, he’ll need a massive showing on this year’s ballot to get on the radar for Cooperstown consideration after just a 34.3% showing in his inaugural year on the ballot. Although Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling won’t be on this year’s ballot, they could still join the Hall of Fame in 2023, as the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will consider the three of them (as well as five others) during the Winter Meetings in December.

2. Will The Twins Re-Sign Correa?

The Twins made a few major changes to their infield mix before Friday’s non-tender deadline, as they shipped Gio Urshela out in a trade with the Angels while swinging a deal to bring in Kyle Farmer from the Reds. If no further changes to the infield mix are made, Minnesota would likely start the season with Jose Miranda at third base, Jorge Polanco at second, and Luis Arraez at first, with Farmer set to hold down shortstop until Royce Lewis returns from injury. With Lewis set to return sometime next season and 2022 draftee Brooks Lee already at Double-A, the Twins could conceivably be content to hand Farmer the keys to the position, transitioning him to more of a utility role once one of the youngsters is ready to displace him. There’s been mutual interest in a Correa reunion, but with big-market teams such as the Dodgers, Cubs, and Giants rumored to be looking to land a shortstop, it’s easy to see how the Twins could lose a bidding war. Still, it seems unlikely that the acquisition of a possible stopgap at shortstop would change Minnesota’s plans much with regards to Correa. Darren Wolfson of KSTP and 1500 SKOR North chatted with Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter and center fielder Byron Buxton (video link) about the potential for a Correa reunion at last week’s event to unveil new Twins uniforms. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote earlier in the month that the Twins would likely pursue Xander Bogaerts in the event that Correa signs elsewhere.

3. What’s Next For Angels After Urshela?

On the other end of the Urshela deal, the Angels have a more stable infield mix following his acquisition. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh figure to get the lion’s share of starts at the corners, assuming their injury woes in 2022 don’t follow them into next season. That leaves Urshela, David Fletcher, and Luis Rengifo to mix and match between second base, shortstop, and filling in at the corners. A prominent shortstop addition still remains possible, but the Angels can also turn their attention to the outfield, where they currently project to send out Jo Adell in left, Mike Trout in center, and Taylor Ward in right. While such an outfield configuration would be far from a disaster, after a trade of Brandon Marsh to the Phillies, the Angels lack depth; currently, Mickey Moniak projects to be their fourth outfielder. Trout will lock up center when healthy, but adding a corner bat to provide protection against continued struggles from Adell would make sense. A lefty such as David Peralta would help the Angels balance their righty-heavy outfield mix, though speculatively speaking, Trey Mancini could be an interesting fit as a player who can play the outfield corners while also providing Walsh platoon protection at first base. Both the Urshela trade and the recent signing of Tyler Anderson have deepened the Angels’ roster while leaving the door open for further moves of note. Deepening the outfield mix in similar fashion would be a sensible next step.

Mets Interested In Jameson Taillon

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2022 at 9:20pm CDT

The Mets have already been linked to several available starters early in the offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jameson Taillon is one of the names the club has been in touch with during its ongoing pitching search. Taillon (who just turned 31 on November 18) is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he ranks 14th on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

The right-hander is no stranger to the Big Apple, having spent the last two seasons with the Yankees. Taillon missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he rebounded to post a 4.08 ERA over 321 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. Taillon has a below-average strikeout rate and he returned from that TJ recovery with below-average fastball velocity, but he has excellent spin rates and strong control. Taillon’s 4.4% walk rate ranked in the 94th percentile of all pitchers in 2022.

Perhaps most importantly, Taillon has been healthy over the last two seasons, apart from a three-week IL stint with an ankle injury in September 2021. Taillon has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and battled testicular cancer, so the Yankees certainly assumed some risk when they acquired Taillon in a deal with the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason. Fortunately, Taillon has avoided any further major heath problems, and now (if anything) looks like something of a reliable veteran innings-eater that could fit into any team’s rotation.

The Yankees opted against issuing a qualifying offer to Taillon, so he was able to hit the open market without any draft compensation attached to his services. MLBTR projected Taillon for a four-year, $56MM contract, but with the caveat that the righty’s Tommy John history could make it difficult for him to land that fourth guaranteed year.

Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, leaving the Mets with some major holes to fill in the rotation. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco will certainly fill two of the five spots, and David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and recent trade acquisition Elieser Hernandez could end up all battling for one available spot, or possibly all be depth options depending on how many pitchers are added or re-signed. As one might expect, the Mets have been aggressive in exploring the market, checking in on the top names (deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga), more second-tier starters like Taillon or Andrew Heaney, and back-of-the-rotation depth like Hernandez.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2022 at 8:05pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

Mets Considering Justin Verlander

By Simon Hampton | November 20, 2022 at 5:30pm CDT

TODAY: Verlander and the Mets spoke together in a Zoom meeting last week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

NOVEMBER 19: The Mets are hopeful of re-signing Jacob deGrom, but if they fail in that pursuit, reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has emerged as a “prominent possibility” for the team, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma cites a source that confirms the Mets are indeed considering the former Astros ace.

deGrom is still every chance to stay in New York of course, and the Mets already believe they are his preferred team, but it certainly shows the Mets’ intention to again be active at the top of the starting pitching market, be that deGrom or not.

Verlander, 39, showed no signs of age in 2022, making one of the more remarkable returns from Tommy John surgery to toss 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball for Houston, win the Cy Young award and take home a World Series ring. Though his strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since joining Houston (down to 27.85), his fastball velocity remained in tact (and actually improved on his last full season), and he accounted for the dip in strikeouts by posting the equal-best walk rate of his lengthy career (4.4%).

It’s a stunning turnaround for a pitcher that threw just six innings between 2020-21, and sets himself up nicely to add to his already illustrious career. He’s already got three Cy Young awards, one MVP, two World Series titles and is now 56 wins away from the 300-win milestone. That last one may seem like a stretch, but Verlander has averaged 18.33 wins a season over his last three full seasons, so it’s certainly not out of the question if he bags a three-year deal. It’s likely Verlander will seek deals from teams that give him the best chance to win, and a return to the Astros remains a strong possibility, while teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies could join the Mets in the race for his signature.

It speaks to the quality of Verlander’s output even as he’s aged that MLBTR recently predicted he’d take home a three-year, $120MM deal, even though he’ll turn 40 in February. While the performance remains elite, the thought of paying a pitcher $40MM into his age-42 season must give some owner’s pause though. Instead, perhaps the Mets might bump up Verlander’s AAV beyond the $43.3MM record that Max Scherzer takes home, and keep it to a more manageable two-year deal.

In any event, it shows the Mets are set to be aggressive in adding a frontline starter to partner Scherzer in 2023. Of course, deGrom and Verlander aren’t the only options either, and the Mets could be in on Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga as well to bolster their light rotation stocks. Currently Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are slated to start 2023, while David Peterson and Tylor Megill could also have roles at the back of the rotation, depending on how New York’s off-season unfolds.

AL Central Notes: Buxton, Jones, Guardians, Tigers

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2022 at 4:55pm CDT

After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in late September, Byron Buxton told reporters (including Michael Rand of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that he has now been cleared to run. The Twins outfielder won’t be entirely sure of his status until he starts running and can properly test his knee strength, but “I’m on a good plan to be prepared for Spring Training. For me it’s all about following and sticking to that plan, not trying to overdo it.”

The recovery process seems to be on pace with the 6-8 week timeline initially projected for the surgery in September. While the arthroscopic procedure was relatively minor, it marks yet another injury in Buxton’s lengthy health history. Knee and hip problems limited Buxton to 92 games in 2022, yet that still matched the second-highest games total of Buxton’s eight Major League seasons. His first-half performance (before the injuries really started to impact his play) still netted Buxton his first All-Star nod, and he hit .224/.306/.526 with 28 homers over his 382 plate appearances. It remains to be seen if Buxton can ever stay healthy enough to fully contribute over an entire season, but even a reduced version is still an important part of Minnesota’s plans to return to contention.

White Sox To Add Chris Johnson To Coaching Staff

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2022 at 3:53pm CDT

The White Sox are expected to promote Chris Johnson to the big league coaching staff, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter link). Johnson has been the hitting coach at Triple-A Charlotte for the last two seasons.

Johnson’s new role on the South Side isn’t yet known, though it would stand to reason that he’ll be moving into at least an assistant hitting-coach position on the overhauled Sox staff. Hitting coach Frank Menechino isn’t being retained for the 2023 season, and it doesn’t appear as though assistant hitting coach Howie Clark is coming back either, as Clark wasn’t one of the few names mentioned by GM Rick Hahn as part of next season’s staff. Pitching coach Ethan Katz and bullpen coach Curt Hasler look to be the only coaches returning under new manager Pedro Grifol, and the White Sox have already made a new bench coach hire in Charlie Montoyo.

It will be the first MLB coaching job for Johnson, who only joined the coaching ranks with his hire in Charlotte two seasons ago. Fans will remember Johnson from his eight-year (2009-16) playing career, as he appeared in 839 games and hit .275/.313/.404 with 63 homers in 2995 plate appearances. Most of Johnson’s career was spent with the Astros and Braves, though he also had brief stints in Arizona, Cleveland, and Miami.

Johnson also played in the Orioles’ minor league system in 2017, which marked his last on-field stop in pro ball. After not playing in 2018, he signed a minors deal with the White Sox during the 2018-19 offseason but was cut during Spring Training.

Free Agent Notes: Bellinger, Turner, Longoria

By Maury Ahram | November 20, 2022 at 2:29pm CDT

Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, Cody Bellinger has had no shortage of potential suitors, reports The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). Bowden adds that Bellinger had calls from at least five teams “within an hour of him being non-tendered” and that “several more have called since.”

Since slashing an impressive .305/.406/.629 with 47 homers in 2019, Bellinger has had a steep decline. Over the last two seasons, the former MVP has struggled to a .198/.256/.355 line with a high 27.1% strikeout rate and below-average 7.7% walk rate. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, Bellinger suffered a right shoulder injury celebrating during the 2020 NLCS, followed by unrelated leg and rib issues that seemingly zapped his offensive production.

Nevertheless, as Bellinger’s offensive production declined, he has taken on more of a defensive role. Reaching the majors as a first baseman, Bellinger has since transitioned to a full-time role in center field and has been rated favorably by both Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast. Without substantial offensive production over the past couple of years, Bellinger will likely earn less than the $18.1MM projected via arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but will almost surely remain on a Major League roster.

Elsewhere in the League:

In addition to the Mariners’ interest in Gleyber Torres and Kolten Wong, the club has also checked in on Trea Turner and “all the other free agent middle infielders,” per Bowden. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has previously stated that the organization would prefer to land a shortstop that would like to play second base, and that J.P. Crawford is the Mariners’ shortstop. While Torres and Wong are both primary second basemen, Turner has limited experience at the position, having played only 436 2/3 innings at second since 2017. Furthermore, all of those innings were in 2021 after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, who already had Corey Seager. Perhaps more importantly, shortstops are traditionally paid more than second basemen. MLBTR predicts Turner to receive an eight-year, $268MM contract, which would smash the record for the highest AAV contract for a second baseman.
15-year veteran Evan Longoria has adjusted his free agent wishes, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Longoria, “hopes to play one or two more years and is open to any competitive team.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today had previously reported that Longoria was only considering the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks as potential free agent landing spots. Longoria would be a nice addition to any contending team, with the 37-year-old hitting a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season. However, injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games over the past two seasons.

Vinny Capra Re-Signs With Blue Jays

By Maury Ahram | November 20, 2022 at 12:13pm CDT

Infielder Vinny Capra is re-signing with the Blue Jays on a Minor League deal, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. Capra had been non-tendered by the Jays on Friday and had received “strong interest elsewhere” before opting to remain with Toronto, per Murray.

Capra, a 20th-round pick in the 2018 draft, made his MLB debut in early May. He had one hit, two walks, and a strikeout in seven plate appearances before being sent down to Triple-A Buffalo near the end of the month. He had three separate stints on the 7-day IL before undergoing left middle finger tendon surgery in early October and being placed on the 60-day IL.

Despite several injuries, Capra had a productive season at Buffalo, hitting .283/.378/.403 with five homers and six doubles. Perhaps most impressive was his low strikeout rate (13.1%) and high walk rate (13.1%). Capra will likely receive an invite to Spring Training and attempt to earn a spot on the Blue Jays’ bench for the 2023 season.

Pirates Sign Nate Webb To Minor League Deal

By Maury Ahram | November 20, 2022 at 10:25am CDT

The Pirates are in agreement with righty Nate Webb on a Minor League deal with an invite to Spring Training, per Robert Murray of Fansided. Webb had previously been DFA’d and non-tendered by the Royals.

Webb, who had been DFA’d by the Royals on Tuesday before the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, was non-tendered on Friday, sending him straight to free agency. The 25-year-old was limited to 33 1/3 innings of 9.99 ERA ball across three minor league levels in 2022, missing two and a half months due to injuries. The bulk of his 2022 season was spent with Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where the former 34th-round pick pitched 26 1/3 innings to a 9.57 ERA with a low 21.1% strikeout rate and a solid 7.0% walk rate.

Despite this weak regular season performance, Webb had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League (5 2/3 innings pitched, zero earned runs, six strikeouts, and two walks). However, with only 28 2/3 innings at Double-A and Triple-A (both from this past season), Webb will likely start the 2023 season in the Minors.

Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm

By Maury Ahram | November 20, 2022 at 8:56am CDT

There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”

There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.

Elsewhere in the League:

White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.

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