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Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Devers, Sale

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The five-year contract that the Red Sox signed with J.D. Martinez is now just a few months away from completion, as the slugger will be heading into free agency at the end of this season. He recently spoke with Rob Bradford of WEEI about the possibility of signing an extension and essentially said that it’s not something he thinks about much.

“That’s a Scott question. I trust Scott,” Martinez said, in reference to his agent, Scott Boras. “If Scott came to me and said, ‘Hey, this is a good deal, I think you should do it.’ I would say, ‘Let’s do it.’ If Scott says, ‘No, I think you should wait until free agency,’ then I will wait until free agency.”

Martinez is on pace to have the best season of his career at the age of 34, as he is currently hitting .380/.430/.599 (coming into tonight’s game). That production amounts to a wRC+ of 197, or 97% better than league average, easily eclipsing his career high 170 from 2018, his first year in Boston. That also places him third among qualified hitters in all of baseball going into tonight’s action, trailing only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge.

With that incredible level of production, it would be understandable for his eyes to turn into dollar signs, but that’s not where his head is at. “I don’t know if I’m the only person but I never think about any of this crap,” Martinez said. “I only think about what I have to do. I hired the best people to advise me in that situation. That’s it. You’ve known me for five years now and it’s the same answers after a good game or a bad game. It never changes. I’m the most boring interview. That’s just how my mind works.”

More notes from Beantown…

  • Another key member of the Red Sox lineup is Rafael Devers. Unlike Martinez, he’s just 25 years old and is still a year and a half away from free agency. Reportedly, he and the team were far apart in Spring Training extension talks, though that door doesn’t appear to be closed. “Growing up as a kid, this was my favorite team. To be able to sign with this club, it meant a lot,” Devers tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “We had those [contract] talks during spring training and they didn’t work out. But when the time is right, we’ll have those discussions after the season and see where it goes from there, because obviously I love this place. I want to be here and it’s just a matter of just finding the right formula.” Like Martinez, Devers is also on pace to have his best season yet, as he’s hitting .335/.366/.600 for a wRC+ of 176. He also might have improved on the other side of the ball, as the advanced defensive metrics aren’t quite as pessimistic on his work this year as last year. It’s been suggested that Devers might have to move off third base eventually due to poor glovework, with Outs Above Average giving him a -13 last year, while Defensive Runs Saved also gave him -13 and Ultimate Zone Rating landed at -5.5. This year, those numbers are currently at -1, -1 and +1, with over a quarter of the season in the books.
  • A big wildcard for the remainder of Boston’s season is what they will get from Chris Sale moving forward. The lefty has been out of action all year due to a stress fracture in his rib cage. Speier reports that the team still expects Sale to return as a starter, with the club hoping he can ramp up relatively quickly because his injuries aren’t related to his arm. Manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, that Sale threw a 25-pitch bullpen today. The next steps will be to throw a few more times before going out on a rehab assignment and building back up to game shape. Pitchers are allowed to rehab for 30 days, so it seems like Sale has a shot at returning by July, though that will depend on how things progress between now and then.

Orioles’ Jahmai Jones Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that second baseman Jahmai Jones underwent Tommy John surgery (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). While the team didn’t provide a timetable for his recovery, it seems likely he’ll miss the remainder of this season and hope to be ready for next Spring Training.

It’ll go down as a lost season for Jones, who didn’t play in the majors. He tallied 112 plate appearances with Triple-A Norfolk, hitting .212/.339/.343 with two home runs and stolen bases apiece. Jones walked at a strong 11.9% clip while only striking out in 19.5% of his plate appearances, but he didn’t make much impact on contact. The right-handed hitter posted just a .131 ISO (slugging minus batting average) with a .257 average on balls in play.

Jones was more effective during a longer run with Norfolk last season. He came to the plate just under 300 times and hit .243/.337/.431 with 11 homers, earning a late-season big league call. The 24-year-old didn’t play well in his brief MLB action, but he seemed to have a good chance to get back to the majors with a solid showing this year. Unfortunately, the elbow procedure will prevent that from happening.

A former second-round pick, Jones broke into the professional ranks as one of the better prospects in the Angels’ farm system. Regarded as a possible bat-first second baseman and top-of-the-lineup presence, he appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects entering the 2018 season. Jones started to struggle between High-A and Double-A that year, though, and his stock dipped. Los Angeles traded him to the Orioles over the 2020-21 offseason for starter Alex Cobb.

Jones will continue to occupy a spot on Baltimore’s 40-man roster so long as he’s on the minor league injured list. The O’s could clear a roster spot by recalling him and placing him on the 60-day IL, although doing so would require paying him at the prorated portion of the $700K MLB minimum salary. Baltimore could also release him entirely or merely keep him on the 40-man all season. This is Jones’ final minor league option year, so he’ll have to break camp with the team next season or be designated for assignment if he holds his place on the roster until then.

Yankees Place Josh Donaldson On IL With Shoulder Inflammation

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The Yankees announced today that third baseman Josh Donaldson has been transferred from the COVID-19 Injured List to the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 24, due to right shoulder inflammation. While he was on the COVID IL, he wasn’t counting against the team’s 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move was required in that department, which the club announced as Chad Green being transferred to the 60-day IL.

The news is surely something of a disappointment for the Yankees and their fans. Donaldson, 36, had been on the COVID list for the past few days due to experiencing symptoms. But since he continued to test negative, it seemed possible that he could make a quick return once those symptoms abated. Now it seems he will be out for at least another week due to this shoulder issue. This isn’t the first time that Donaldson has been held back by shoulder inflammation, as the same injury landed him on the injured list for about two weeks while with the Blue Jays in April 2018.

Acquired from the Twins in an offseason trade, Donaldson’s tenure in the Bronx is off to a good start. Through 37 games, he’s hitting .238/.349/.415 for a wRC+ of 130 as the club is currently sitting on a record of 32-13, the best in baseball. Donaldson’s contributions will now continue to be on hold while he recuperates. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including Lindsey Adler of The Athletic, that the injury has been bugging Donaldson for a while. He received a cortisone shot this week with the club hopeful he’s not facing an extended absence.

With Donaldson out of action, the logical backup plan would have been to use DJ LeMahieu at third base, though he’s been dealing with left wrist discomfort and hasn’t appeared in a game since Monday. Adler relays word from Boone that LeMahieu’s condition has improved enough that he could appear in the game at some point tonight, though he isn’t in the starting lineup. Marwin Gonzalez has been getting the starts at the hot corner lately and figures to do so until LeMahieu and/or Donaldson are eligible to return.

The transfer of Green to the 60-day IL is a mere formality, as it was announced earlier this week that he will require Tommy John surgery. That will keep him out of action for the remainder of this year and at least part of next season as well.

Mets’ Travis Jankowski Out 6-8 Weeks Following Hand Surgery

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The Mets announced to reporters, including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News, that outfielder Travis Jankowski underwent surgery today following a fracture of the fourth metacarpal on his left hand. He has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 26, with a recovery timeline of approximately 6-8 weeks. Thosar also relays word from manager Buck Showalter that the injury was sustained as Jankowski made a diving catch in Wednesday’s game. The club also optioned left-hander Thomas Szapucki, recalling right-handers Stephen Nogosek and Yoan Lopez to take the open spots on the active roster, per Tim Britton of The Athletic.

A veteran of eight MLB seasons now, Jankowski has never been a huge threat at the plate, but has continually been employed for his speed and defense. In 459 career games with the Padres, Reds, Phillies and Mets, he’s hit .238/.320/.314 for a wRC+ of 78. But thanks to 72 steals and good defensive numbers, he’s still produced 2.1 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Mets in the offseason, he had his contract selected to start the season and has gotten into 33 games so far, but starting just 13 of those, often entering games as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. He’s hit just .209/.292/.209 on the season but has swiped three bags and helped out with the glove.

With Jankowski on the shelf, the Mets will have a little less outfield depth. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Mark Canha will get the the lion’s share of time on the grass, with Jeff McNeil occasionally joining them while Luis Guillorme plays second. It’s possible that McNeil gets a bit more time in the outfield, though perhaps Dominic Smith could factor in as well. He played some outfield in each of the previous four seasons but has only played first base so far in this campaign. Britton relays that Showalter has mentioned Nick Plummer as someone who could come up from the minors, with Plummer not in tonight’s lineup for Triple-A Syracuse.

Reds Select Graham Ashcraft

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The Reds announced they’ve selected pitching prospect Graham Ashcraft onto the roster to make tonight’s start against the Giants. They also reinstated veteran lefty Ross Detwiler from bereavement leave, optioning corner infielder Colin Moran and reliever Jared Solomon to Triple-A Louisville in corresponding moves. To create space for Ashcraft on the 40-man roster, southpaw Justin Wilson has been transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

It’s the second time Ashcraft has been called to the majors, but he’ll be in line for a much longer stint this time around. The 24-year-old first came up as a designated COVID-19 substitute for a series in Toronto, as the Reds placed a handful of players on the restricted list due to their vaccination status. That designation allowed Cincinnati to send him back to the minor leagues and off the 40-man roster without passing through waivers after one start. Ashcraft worked 4 1/3 innings during his MLB debut, allowing two runs with a trio of strikeouts.

A sixth round selection in the 2019 draft, Ashcraft has been impressive enough in the minors to jump into Baseball America’s list of top Reds prospects, coming in at #30 last year and jumping all the way to #9 this year. Last year, he split his time between High-A and Double-A, throwing 111 combined innings with an even 3.00 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He got bumped up to Triple-A this year and has thrown 32 2/3 frames so far with a 1.65 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate are actually not that impressive, though he’s succeeding thanks to an incredible 71.4% ground ball rate.

Connor Overton recently landed on the injured list, joining Mike Minor, Nick Lodolo and Justin Dunn as the Reds’ starters out of action. Minor is on rehab and is expected back soon, joining Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Hunter Greene and Vladimir Gutierrez in the rotation. Despite that, it doesn’t seem like this is a mere spot start for Ashcraft, with manager David Bell telling reports (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he’ll stick in the rotation going forward. That means that the club either plans on carrying a six-man rotation for a while, or someone else will be getting the bump.

As for Wilson, he was placed on the injured list April 27 due to soreness in his left elbow. With this transfer, he’ll be ineligible to return to the big league club until 60 days from that original placement, which would be late June. The lefty exercised a $2.3MM player option for this year, which was a part of the deal he originally signed with the Yankees. He’s only been able to throw 3 2/3 innings so far this year and will now be out for at least another month.

Big Hype Prospects: Torkelson, Duran, Rodriguez, Pasquantino, Yepez

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This week, we check in on a number of prospects already in the Majors or on the cusp of promotion.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Spencer Torkelson, 22, 1B, DET (MLB)
144 PA, 4 HR, .179/.292/.309

Those hoping Torkelson would be the next great prospect debut have been sorely disappointed. Yet, lurking below his ugly surface level stats are promising peripherals. Tork has displayed above average plate discipline and is especially resistant to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He’s still struggled with strikeouts (28.5% K%), but there’s reason for optimism on that front. Since his 10.2 percent swinging strike rate is relatively tame, he should trim his strikeouts as he adjusts to the league. His primary scouting attributes – an above average hit tool backed by double-plus power – await an aha moment.

A week ago, a demotion to Triple-A looked increasingly likely. However, he’s now hit .265/.333/.441 over his last 39 plate appearances with three doubles, a homer, a 10.3 percent walk rate, and a 15.4 percent strikeout rate. The not-quite-hot-streak is sufficient cause for optimism, especially for a 16-28 Tigers club.

Jarren Duran, 25, OF, BOS (AAA)
142 PA, 4 HR, 10 SB, .315/.387/.543

Duran admitted to trying to do too much in the power department last year when he hit .215/.241/.336 in 112 big-league plate appearances. Thus far, he’s played just one game in the Majors this season. We’ll see him for more soon since he’s slaying Triple-A pitching and stands to considerably upgrade a 21-23 Red Sox roster.

Duran has returned to a line drive-oriented approach which might limit his ceiling but should also improve his floor. His batted ball profile is associated with high-BABIPs. Red Sox starting right fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t bringing anything with the bat (.213/.275/.331). He might be better deployed as a backup or defensive replacement.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
43.1 IP, 13.71 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 2.70 ERA

The Orioles have a doubleheader tomorrow. Jordan Lyles is set to start one half with the other belonging to a mystery pitcher. Baltimore has several options including Rodriguez. He’s due to start tonight so we’ll likely know by 7:05pm ET if he’ll get the call. 

Since appearing in the column last week, Rodriguez had a six-inning, nine-strikeout start. He allowed two runs on four hits and a walk. It marked the second consecutive start in which he faced 23 batters. That’s a fairly typical workload for a young Major League pitcher so it does appear he’s cleared all obvious development hurdles.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 24, 1B, KC (AAA)
182 PA, 12 HR, 3 SB, .296/.396/.638

If the 15-28 Royals intend to salvage their season, they don’t have any time left to pull their punches. The club is currently using Hunter Dozier and Carlos Santana between first base and designated hitter. Dozier is having a solid if unspectacular rebound season. Santana, despite again managing more walks than strikeouts, hasn’t brought any thump to the plate. Pasquantino, a lefty slugger, has comparable walk and strikeout rates to Santana, but he supports them with a fly ball-oriented swing and a high rate of contact. Had he arrived during the 2019 season, he’d be an instant threat to swat a 50-homer pace. Since his raw power doesn’t stand out, there’s risk he’ll run a low BABIP due to too many easy fly outs. I’m reminded Rhys Hoskins in his age 24 season (2017). Perhaps we’ll see the same homer binge too!

Juan Yepez, 24, 1B/OF, STL (MLB)
86 PA, 4 HR, .273/.337/.468

Yepez wasn’t a highly celebrated prospect until his excellent 2021 campaign. Even that performance drew lukewarm plaudits due to the lack of quality pitching in the upper-minors last season. Yepez delivered more power in Triple-A this April, popping nine home runs in 93 plate appearances. He’s followed up with four dingers in the Majors. An aggressive batter, Yepez has the makings of an above average offensive player who lacks a stable defensive home. The Cardinals are currently trying him in the outfield corners and first base. Since Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are sidelined, there’s plenty of room to play mix and match. When they return, St. Louis and Yepez will have to reckon with a roster crunch.

Five More

Bryson Stott (24): Shortstop Didi Gregorius is slowly working his way back from a knee injury. This was an excellent opportunity for Stott to claim the starting role, but he’s hitting just .108/.195/.108 in his second stint with the club. Strikeouts have plagued him all season, even in Triple-A. A second demotion looms if he doesn’t awaken immediately.

Nolan Gorman (22): When he was promoted last week, I figured Gorman would either struggle to make contact or succeed via home runs. Instead, he produced loud contact but didn’t clear a fence. His .263/.364/.368 batting line through 22 plate appearances is safely above average, but it relied upon a .417 BABIP. Whiffs could still sink him – his 31.8 percent strikeout rate and 17.7 percent swinging strike rate would rate among the 10-worst qualified hitters.

JP Sears (26): Among pitchers with at least 20 innings, Sears leads Triple-A with a 35.9 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate (K%-BB%). On Wednesday, he tossed five strong innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Sears largely leans on a fastball-slider combo which tends to indicate a future in the bullpen.

Kyle Muller (24): A former second-round pick, Muller hasn’t yet successfully transitioned to the Majors. He walked the world in his lone big-league start this season. In the minors, he’s posted a fine 3.68 ERA backed by a lovely 12.03 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9. Scouts have noted his fastball command tends to be transient.

Jordan Groshans (22): Since arriving in Triple-A, Groshans has recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. Although he’s yet to homer, his .381/.474/.429 triple-slash is plenty lovely. He’s a line drive machine who could reinforce the Blue Jays later this season. Scouts expect him to slide to third base.

Mariners Select Roenis Elias

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The Mariners announced they’ve selected left-hander Roenis Elías onto the big league roster. Seattle had optioned reliever Drew Steckenrider to Triple-A Tacoma last night to clear a spot on the active roster. In order to open space on the 40-man, righty Riley O’Brien has been designated for assignment.

It’s the second time Elías has gotten a major league call, although this stint figures to be more lasting. The 33-year-old was brought up for a series in Toronto when a handful of Seattle players went on the restricted list because of their vaccination status. Elías was a designated COVID-19 substitute for that weekend, however, and he was removed from the 40-man roster and returned to Triple-A after a few days. He made one appearance, allowing a run on a hit and two walks in one inning.

Elías has otherwise spent the season in Tacoma, making 14 appearances. He’s worked 17 1/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball, posting lower than average strikeout (17.6%) and walk (6.8%) marks. Elías has yet to allow a home run this year in spite of a fairly ordinary 44.6% ground-ball rate. He’ll offer manager Scott Servais a multi-inning arm out of the bullpen.

Steckenrider had been a key reliever for the M’s last season. An offseason minor league signee, the righty made the Opening Day roster and eventually pitched his way into high-leverage work. He wound up posting an even 2.00 ERA through 67 2/3 innings, an impact contributor to a bullpen that was among the reasons the M’s overperformed and won 90 games. Steckenrider’s below-average strikeout and grounder numbers suggested he wasn’t likely to be quite so dominant again, but he showed solid control and was generally reliable.

That hasn’t been the case in 2022, as his early performance has dipped more than anyone would’ve seen coming. Through 14 1/3 frames, he owns a 5.65 ERA. His already fringy 21.7% strikeout percentage has dropped to just 14.7%, and he’s surrendered a pair of homers. The M’s can only hope that a stint with the Rainiers can get Steckenrider more reasonably back on track, as Seattle has had one of the league’s least effective relief corps this year.

Seattle acquired O’Brien from the Reds in exchange for cash last month. The 27-year-old made just one big league appearance with his hometown club, spending the rest of his time on optional assignment to Tacoma. He’s allowed five runs in ten innings at the minors top level, striking out 14 but issuing 11 walks. O’Brien has worked exclusively in relief this year after starting 22 of his 23 outings with the Reds’ highest affiliate last season, where he pitched to a 4.55 ERA across 112 2/3 frames.

The Mariners will have a week to trade O’Brien or try to run him through outright waivers. The 27-year-old only has a pair of MLB appearances to his name. He’s had success missing bats at the Triple-A level but also dealt with some control concerns. O’Brien still has a couple minor league option years remaining and has already been traded twice in his career, so it’s certainly possible he changes hands again in the coming days.

Joe Ross Suffers Setback In Rehab From Elbow Injury

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Nationals starter Joe Ross left his first rehab start on Tuesday after just three innings, citing renewed elbow tightness. The righty went for an MRI on Wednesday he says revealed “more of a sprain” in an elbow ligament than had previously been believed (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post).

Ross will head for further testing before deciding on his next steps, but it seems likely he’ll at least be recalled from his rehab stint. It’s not clear whether surgery is on the table on this time, but it’s obviously an unfortunate development in light of his injury history. Ross underwent a Tommy John procedure in July 2017, and the recovery cost him almost all of the following season. He worked primarily out of the bullpen in 2019, then opted out of the 2020 season over COVID-19 concerns.

The former first-round pick returned to the rotation last year. He worked to a 4.17 ERA with solid strikeout and walk numbers through 108 innings before his season was cut short. Ross was diagnosed with a partial tear of the UCL in his elbow last August, and while he avoided another Tommy John procedure, he was shut down for the remainder of the season. He underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow this spring and has been on the injured list all year.

Last season’s innings tally narrowly mark a career-high. The 29-year-old has been in the big leagues since 2015, but injuries have never allowed him to assume a typical starter’s workload over a six-month stretch. This season was never going to afford Ross that possibility after he started the year on the IL, but it now remains to be seen whether he’s in for another extended absence.

It’s an important year for Ross personally, as he’s on track for free agency this winter. He and the Nationals agreed to a $2.4MM salary to avoid arbitration, and he’ll hit the open market for the first time in his career a few months from now.

Kris Bryant Expected To Miss 2-3 Weeks

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MAY 27: Colorado doesn’t seem particularly concerned about Bryant’s absence. General manager Bill Schmidt told Jon Heyman of the New York Post the former MVP is expected back in two-to-three weeks.

MAY 25: The Rockies announced Wednesday that left fielder Kris Bryant has once again been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back strain. The IL placement is retroactive to May 23. Bryant missed nearly a month after being placed on the IL with this same injury in late April. He’d only been active for two games before being scratched from Monday’s contest and will now be out until at least June 2. Right-hander Ryan Feltner is up from Triple-A Albuquerque to take Bryant’s spot on the active roster.

Clearly, this isn’t the way that either Bryant or the Rockies envisioned his seven-year, $182MM contract beginning. The former National League Rookie of the Year, National League MVP and four-time All-Star has appeared in just 17 of the Rockies’ 42 games thus far and has yet to connect on his first long ball with the Rox. He’s hitting .270/.342/.333 through his first 73 plate appearances — well above league average in the first two of those three slash stats — but the lack of power and lack of time on the field are both glaring.

There’s no indication from the team as to just how long Bryant is expected to be shelved in this latest stint. It’s worth noting, however, that when Bryant originally hit the injured list back in late April, the Rockies suggested that he could be back on the field in a couple weeks’ time. Instead, as first reported by Nick Groke of The Athletic, Bryant required a cortisone injection a couple weeks into that original IL placement and was ultimately out of action for nearly four weeks. The Rox have a daytime tilt against the Pirates coming up in just under three hours, and it stands to reason that manager Bud Black will offer more information prior to gametime.

Colorado raced out to a 10-5 start to the 2022 season, igniting some hope among the fanbase that perhaps a turnaround of the team’s woeful 2019-21 performance was at hand. They’ve gone 10-17 since that start, however, and have been in a particular funk of late (just four wins in their past 15 games). The resulting 20-22 record and their -28 run differential are both the worst marks in the National League West.

With Bryant back on the shelf into early June, the Rockies will likely to turn to a combination of Connor Joe, Yonathan Daza and Sam Hilliard to cover the workload in left field. Joe has been in the lineup regularly, often as a designated hitter, but could see some extra outfield work now. Daza and Hilliard, meanwhile, figure to see an increase in at-bats with Bryant out.

In a strict platoon deployment, the left-handed-hitting Hilliard would see the bulk of the work, but he’s hitting just .160/.255/.296 to Daza’s .350/.404/.400 thus far in 2022, so perhaps the latter will receive a larger look. Daza’s batting line is being propped up by a .384 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to sustain, but his minuscule 9.0% strikeout rate so far certainly gives him a chance to remain productive even as that BABIP trends back toward his career levels. Notably, Daza is starting in center field today against a right-handed opponent. Joe is in left field, with Hilliard available off the bench.

As for the 25-year-old Feltner, he’ll make his fourth career start later today when he takes the mound in Pittsburgh. His first three haven’t gone particularly well — he’s surrendered a dozen runs in 11 1/3 MLB innings to date — but the 2018 fourth-rounder is out to a solid start in Triple-A this year. Through 38 1/3 innings, Feltner carries a 3.76 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 38.9% ground-ball rate. With Antonio Senzatela on the injured list — also due to a back strain — Feltner could see an increase in his opportunities in the coming weeks, particularly if he shows well in today’s spot start.

Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Payroll, Simmons, Madrigal

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After a 15-run loss at the hands of the Reds yesterday, the Cubs dropped into fourth place in the NL Central at 18-26. Chicago’s early performance hasn’t been too far off preseason expectations. After the Cubs watched much of their previous core depart, the 2022 season looked likely to be a transitional year.

Particularly as playoff contention becomes more far-fetched, it makes sense for the organization to use this year as an opportunity to evaluate potential members of the next competitive Cubs’ team. To that end, manager David Ross indicated this week that Nico Hoerner will be the primary shortstop throughout the season (link via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). That’s in spite of the club’s offseason signing of Andrelton Simmons to a $4MM deal.

“Nico has proven that he can play big-league shortstop pretty consistently already in this season,” Ross said. “Let’s see what happens at the end of the year and assess there. It’s easy to say you can be a big-league shortstop long term, but you also have to do it. You have to prove it. … We’ll move them around a little bit, but Nico will be starting shortstop.”

It’s a sensible course for the organization, as the 25-year-old Hoerner is controllable for another three seasons via arbitration. A former first-round pick, the Stanford product has shown promise on both sides of the ball over the past couple years. Hoerner didn’t hit a single home run in 170 plate appearances last season, but he made contact at a plus rate and reached base at a strong .382 clip. He’s seen a dramatic dip in his walk and on-base numbers early in 2022, but he’s collected a trio of homers — his first since his 2019 rookie season. Hoerner owns a .292/.350/.392 slash line dating back to the start of the 2021 campaign.

Hoerner was a well-regarded prospect, but some evaluators questioned whether he’d eventually need to slide over to second base. He’s split his MLB time nearly evenly between the middle infield spots (with additional cameos at third base and in the outfield), and public defensive metrics have loved his work at both positions. Hoerner has never had a full season’s worth of reps of at shortstop, however, and the likely non-competitive 2022 campaign affords the Cubs an opportunity to give him that challenge.

The team’s evaluation is particularly meaningful when one considers the upcoming free agent class. Chicago elected not to make a major splash at shortstop last time, watching as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, old friend Javier Báez and Trevor Story signed elsewhere. The Cubs, meanwhile, took lower-cost shots on Simmons and Jonathan Villar while turning things over to their internal options.

Next winter’s shortstop class may not be quite as strong, but there’ll be a handful of high-end players yet again. Correa can opt out of his deal with the Twins, while Xander Bogaerts is a near-lock to do the same on his contract with the Red Sox. Trea Turner will hit free agency for the first time, as will Dansby Swanson. The Cubs could be a viable suitor for any of that group, particularly if they’re willing to push payroll upwards to reopen a contention window.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the organization could do just that, writing that they’re “expected to spend again next winter.” That’s not to say the Cubs sat out this past offseason. They signed a staggering 12 players to big league free agent deals, but only Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman commanded especially notable long-term investments. The bulk of the team’s moves were shorter, lower-risk additions on the margins of the roster.

The team’s long-term spending outlook leaves open the possibility for a more aggressive run at top-of-the-market talents a few months from now. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the Cubs have around $94MM in guaranteed commitments on the books for 2023. Ian Happ will be in line for a fairly significant arbitration salary — assuming he’s not traded this summer — but the team should otherwise have a fairly light class. That’d leave some room for additions even before reaching the approximate $145MM Opening Day player payrolls of the past two seasons, and the organization has spent north of $200MM on their rosters in the past.

Whether the Cubs dive into the top of the shortstop market could be determined by how Hoerner performs over the coming months. In the nearer term, Hoarder’s regular playing time means Simmons is set to take on an unfamiliar utility role. The 32-year-old has never played a big league inning outside of shortstop (aside from yesterday’s mop-up pitching performance), but Ross indicated he’s likely to see time at second base moving forward.

Simmons is generally regarded as the best defensive shortstop of his generation, and there’s little doubt he can handle second base with similar excellence. Yet he’s coming off a dismal offensive season with the Twins, and there probably won’t be room for him in the regular infield when the Cubs are at full strength. Patrick Wisdom is the primary third baseman, while Nick Madrigal is likely to play regularly at the keystone when he returns from the injured list.

Madrigal has been out for a couple weeks with a lower back issue, but the team announced that he’ll report to Triple-A Iowa for a rehab assignment this weekend (h/t to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Acquired from the White Sox in last summer’s Craig Kimbrel swap, Madrigal has hit just .203/.250/.241 through his first 23 games with his new club. Nevertheless, the contact-oriented infielder is controllable through 2026 and a potential core piece, so he’ll surely be in the everyday lineup once healthy.

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