MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?
Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.
During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.
One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.
Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.
Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.
For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?
(poll link for app users)
Assuming He Signs With An MLB Team, Where Will Seiya Suzuki Land?
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Red Sox 15% (2,665)
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Mariners 14% (2,390)
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Giants 13% (2,311)
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Yankees 8% (1,464)
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Rangers 6% (1,107)
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Blue Jays 6% (1,061)
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Mets 4% (679)
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Dodgers 3% (522)
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Padres 3% (495)
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Braves 3% (484)
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Cubs 3% (480)
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Angels 3% (477)
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Phillies 3% (452)
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White Sox 2% (318)
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Tigers 2% (278)
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Pirates 2% (278)
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Cardinals 1% (217)
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Guardians 1% (196)
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Orioles 1% (173)
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Brewers 1% (158)
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Astros 1% (154)
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Twins 1% (137)
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Rays 1% (133)
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Reds 1% (125)
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Nationals 1% (114)
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Royals 1% (112)
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A's 1% (105)
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Marlins 1% (97)
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Rockies 0% (57)
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D-Backs 0% (52)
Total votes: 17,291
Coco Crisp, Bill Mueller To Join Nationals’ Player Development Staff
Former big leaguers Coco Crisp and Bill Mueller are taking on roles in the Nationals player development department, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (on Twitter). Crisp is joining the organization as an outfield/baserunning coordinator, while Mueller will serve as the club’s quality control coordinator.
It’ll be the first affiliated ball post-playing gig for the 42-year-old Crisp. A switch-hitting outfielder, he suited up for the Indians, Red Sox, Royals and A’s over the course of a 15-year MLB playing career. He last appeared in the bigs with Cleveland during their 2016 pennant-winning season. The following July, Crisp signed on to coach high school baseball in Southern California, a role he’d hold for two seasons. He later worked on the A’s radio broadcast and managed in the inaugural season of the MLB draft league last year.
Mueller, meanwhile, played 11 seasons in the big leagues. He suited up with the Giants, Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers between 1996-2006, claiming a Silver Slugger award and winning the American League batting title with Boston in 2003. In his post-playing days, he spent some time as a scout, hitting coach and front office assistant with a few organizations — most recently working as the Cardinals’ assistant hitting coach between 2015-18.
In the wake of last summer’s sell-off, Nationals’ brass has spoken about their desire to bolster the scouting and player development realms amidst an organizational reset. (Dougherty covered the situation in a full piece last month). To further that effort, general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff are bringing aboard a pair of well-known longtime major leaguers to work with the club’s prospects.
CPBL’s Uni-President Lions Sign Wilin Rosario
Earlier this month, the Uni-President Lions of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League announced an agreement with catcher Wilin Rosario (h/t to the Taipei Times). The 32-year-old (33 in February) is best known in the United States for his five-year MLB run with the Rockies.
A right-handed hitter, Rosario broke into the majors as a September call-up in 2011. He assumed the primary role behind the dish in Colorado the following season, tallying 400+ plate appearances in each of the next three years. A bat-first backstop, Rosario provided above-average offensive numbers (even after accounting for Coors Field’s hitter-friendly nature), popping 20+ homers in each of his first two full campaigns.
By 2014, however, Rosario’s productivity at the plate tailed off, at which point his longstanding issues as a pitch framer and ball blocker became more notable. No other backstop was charged with more passed balls than Rosario (42) between 2012 and 2014. After a second consecutive subpar campaign with the bat as well, Colorado outrighted the Dominican Republic native off their 40-man roster.
Rosario hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since being cut loose by the Rox. He signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2016, re-signing there for 2017 as well. After a two-year stint with a monstrous .330/.390/.625 line, Rosario made the jump to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2018. He struggled to a .242/.285/.374 mark there but returned to affiliated ball on a minor league deal with the Twins in advance of the 2019 campaign.
Despite a decent showing at the plate with Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate, Rosario didn’t get a call to the majors that year. He didn’t play in 2020 but spent a bit of last season in the Mexican League. He’ll now make his first foray to playing in Taiwan, which will give him experience at the highest levels in each of MLB, the KBO, NPB, the Mexican League and the CPBL.
Brian DeLunas Passes Away
The University of Missouri announced this afternoon that pitching coach Brian DeLunas passed away last night at the age of 46. He had been battling kidney disease.
A Missouri native and co-founder of St. Louis-based training facility Premier Pitching and Performance, DeLunas returned to Columbia for his second stint as Tigers pitching coach last June. In between those two runs, he worked for parts of four seasons in the major leagues. Most notably, he spent the 2018-20 seasons with the Mariners. He served as Seattle’s bullpen coach in both 2018 and 2020 (working remotely during the latter season due to concerns regarding COVID-19 and his preexisting kidney condition), while he spent the 2019 campaign as the M’s director of pitching development/strategies. After DeLunas and the Mariners parted ways at the end of 2020, he spent some time with the Mets as a special projects coordinator before being hired by Mizzou.
“Words cannot describe how heartbroken we are in the loss of our friend, Brian DeLunas,” Tigers head baseball coach Steve Bieser said in a statement. “In the months since his return to Mizzou, he has made an indelible impact on our team through his love of the game and his players along with his inspirational courage off the field. Brian was a tremendous husband, father, brother and coach, and our hearts go out to Johannah, Rory, Maren and the entire DeLunas family as we ask everyone to keep them in your thoughts and prayers.”
MLBTR joins many others throughout the game in sending our condolences to DeLunas’ family, friends and loved ones.
Cubs Eschewing Power In New Ways
Last season, as most of Major League Baseball moved incontrovertibly towards a high velocity, strikeout-forward approach, the Cubs put together a soft-tossing rotation not at all focused on missing bats. Headlined by Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, perhaps the two preeminent control artists in the sport, the Cubs unique approach aimed–quite literally–to induce weak contact rather than avoid it. If success was a long shot, there was at least a strategy, even if their zag to the league’s zig was prompted by need.
Chicago’s pipeline of pitching talent had gone dry. The Jon Lester– Jake Arrieta-Hendricks triumvirate was the engine of the 2015-2017 peak Cubs. When they came to power in 2015, Cubs’ starters finished third overall in the Majors with a 3.36 ERA. They topped the sport by measure of ERA in 2016 with a 2.96 mark. By 2017, they had begun to slip, down to seventh overall with a 4.04 mark.
The magic was gone. As Arrieta’s superhuman years faded into the background, the Cubs let him walk in free agency. They made moves to replace him–trading for Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, and Jose Quintana–some moves came before he left and some came after, but none could stand up to Arrieta in his short, but astronomical peak. Lester began to age, Darvish’s return to frontline status was a slow burn, and the Cubs settled into a groove of good, but unremarkable rotations, finishing 10th overall by ERA in 2018 and 2019.
David Ross‘ squad sprinted to a sixth overall finish in 2020 by ERA as Darvish and Hendricks gave them a semblance of the staffs from the peak Cubs. Maybe their success emboldened the front office to give the offensive core one more opportunity to recapture the magic of the 2016 title run. But as we now know, the Cubs were at their best when driven by a top-notch rotation, and in 2021, they were stuck in the slow lane.
Only Hendricks and Davies made all 32 starts, but both posted the worst seasons of their careers as the Cubs lost 91 games. The rotation ranked 26th overall with a 5.27 team ERA, easily the worst performance since the Cubs took off in 2015. A power pitching game isn’t strictly necessary to field a competitive squad, but the Cubs do need something more.
They’ve already made strides, putting together a less gimmicky rotation than last year, scooping Wade Miley off the waiver wire and signing one of the top free agent arms in Marcus Stroman.
On the offensive end, the speculation continues that they might make a bid for Carlos Correa. If not, the Cubs would roll out a starting middle infield of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. While the young pair is promising, one could also argue that they represent the hitter version of last year’s rotation gambit. While the rest of the baseball world hunts dingers, a Hoerner/Madrigal combo boasts turn-of-the-century talent – and not this century.
Hoerner has hit three home runs in 378 career plate appearances, while Madrigal has two over 324 plate appearances. Steamer suggests a whopping 14 combined home runs between the two of them if given regular playing time. Home runs aren’t everything, so we can check their isolated power: Madrigal owns a .089 ISO and Hoerner a .078 ISO. Where .167 ISO is league-average, Nico and Nick are decidedly punch-less. Granted, neither has played even a full season in the Majors, so their numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but neither has shown much power in the minor leagues either.
Signing of Correa or Trevor Story changes the calculus, but either way, the Cubs expect Hoerner and Madrigal to be regular cogs in the lineup. There’s upside there for Chicago, but whether it’s enough to charge this new era of Cubs baseball remains to be seen. The Cubs have long had a strikeout problem from a team perspective, and getting 500+ at-bats from Hoerner and Madrigal would definitely see more balls put in play. Neither walks a ton, however, so there’s heavy lifting to do in other parts of the lineup, as well as for manager David Ross in putting together a lineup with two contact-first bats who don’t walk or hit for power. (As a counterpoint, Hoerner posted a 10.0 walk rate in 2021, which is better than the league-average rate of 8.7 percent, and a 9.5 percent walk rate the year before.)
Of course, the Cubs don’t like Madrigal and Hoerner because of what they don’t do.
Both are regarded as strong defenders, making them necessary supports for the new-look rotation. Stroman and Miley finished in the top 10 among qualified pitchers for groundball rate, and though Hendricks’ 43.1 percent groundball rate wasn’t as high as many years, he still finished 20th in the Majors by that metric. Infield defense will have to be a plus for the Cubs new rotation to succeed, and their young, contact-oriented duo will be key.
For that to work, however, their infield duo needs to be on the field, and both have struggled in that regard. More than a lack of power, poor health will doom the potential of the Nico and Nick show.
If they do stay healthy, they are the beginning of a movement underway in Chicago. We can even add first baseman Frank Schwindel to the list of Cubs infielders who excel at making contact. Of course, Patrick Wisdom strikes out enough for the whole infield (40.8 percent strikeout rate over 375 plate appearances in 2021). That certainly helped land the Cubs the highest strikeout rate in baseball last season at 26.7 percent. They finished 27th-ranked in 2020.
Strikeouts are a death knell for an offense, killing momentum and vaporizing the potential favor of BABIP good luck. It’s not “the answer,” but it’s certainly a piece of what could be a winning strategy. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. And believe it or not, the Cubs’ brass still wants good things to happen for this ballclub. The peak era Cubs boasted big-time power, so they could weather higher strikeout rates, but that team is gone, and this team is still forming its identity.
The Cubs tried putting together a pitching staff that didn’t strike anybody out, so it’s only natural that when that failed, they should try an offense that puts the ball in play. After all, they know it works because they’ve seen it work. With Nico and Nick leading the way, if nothing else, these new Cubs should put the ball in play, just to give themselves a chance.
Read The Transcript Of Brad Johnson’s Fantasy Baseball Chat
Brad Johnson has been writing about fantasy baseball for more than a decade and has considerable experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and this website, and he’s presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.
In other words, the dude knows fantasy baseball. If you play, we welcome you to read the transcript of today’s live chat. Brad will be chatting on Mondays at noon central time every other week here at MLBTR from now until the regular season begins. You can find Brad on Twitter @BaseballATeam.
Francisco Liriano Announces Retirement
Left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano has announced his retirement, agent Mike Maulini tells Robert Murray of FanSided. Liriano debuted in 2005 with the Twins as a 21-year-old, and he last toed the rubber with the Pirates in 2019. All in all, Liriano appeared in 14 big-league seasons with the Twins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, and Pirates. MLBTR sends our sincere congratulations to Liriano on a long and successful career.
Liriano originally signed with the Giants as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic on September 9, 2000. He would spend his first three professional seasons in San Francisco’s minor league system, reaching High-A in 2003 before being traded to the Twins in November. The deal would prove a good one for Minnesota, who received Liriano with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan in exchange for catcher A.J. Pierzynski and cash. The deal marked the first of four times that Liriano would be traded throughout his professional career.
With the Twins, Liriano became a star. He burst onto the scene for a 96-win club in 2006, immediately crowned as the perfect sidekick/successor for ace Johan Santana. The 22-year-old threw 121 innings with a 2.16 ERA/2.55 FIP. Liriano was so impressive that he made the All-Star team, his only such appearance. Just as Liriano tantalized Minnesota’s fanbase with his electric arsenal, disaster ended the dream before it really even began: Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery in early November, knocking him out of the entirety of 2007.
He returned in 2008 to make 14 starts, posting a 3.91 ERA/3.87 FIP over 76 innings. Unfortunately, the electricity was gone from his game as his 30.4 percent strikeout rate from 2006 fell to 20.4 percent in his return season. Though some thump may have been gone from Liriano’s game, he proved to be an extremely resourceful and resilient professional, twice winning the Comeback Player of the Year award.
The first time came in 2010 when he rebounded from a difficult 2009 seasons to start 31 games and toss 191 2/3 innings with a 3.62 ERA/2.66 FIP, striking out more than 200 batters for the first time in his career. Liriano helped the Twins to 94 wins and a division title. He made just one postseason start as the Twins were bounced from the playoffs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. That club was the third division winner of the past five years, but all three were swept out of the playoffs, and they tumbled to fifth place in 2011.
They stayed there in 2012, which helped lay the groundwork for the second trade of Liriano’s career. The Twins traded Liriano to the White Sox on August 1, 2012 for Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez.
Liriano signed a somewhat surprising deal with the Pirates that offseason that turned out to be a prescient move for the Buccos. Liriano made 26 starts in his first season with the Pirates, tossing 161 innings with a 3.02 ERA/2.93 FIP, a remarkable effort that won Liriano his second Comeback Player of the Year award. Liriano proved the perfect avatar for the Pirates’ own turnaround, who won 94 games and ended a 20-season playoff drought.
Not only did Liriano help get the Pirates to the postseason, he was the winning pitcher of a one-game playoff against the Reds, tossing seven innings of one-run baseball en route to a 6-2 win. That win might be the single greatest moment in the last 30 years of Pirates baseball. Remarkably, that team boasted a rotation that included a young(er) Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, but Liriano was the ace of that staff, and he pitched like it in the postseason.
The Pirates would go up 2-1 in the NLDS before ultimately falling in a five-game loss to the Cardinals. Liriano started a game three win as well, pitching six solid innings and giving up just three hits and two runs. Liriano even walked and drove in a run with a sacrifice in that game.
Liriano and the Pirates would return to the playoffs a wild card team in each of the next two seasons, running into a pair of buzzsaws in Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta, both of whom threw complete game shutouts in their respective wild card contests. Liriano’s run in Pittsburgh was no less remarkable, however, as he posted a 3.65 ERA over 693 2/3 innings in parts of five seasons with the Pirates.
The 2016 season would mark the end of the second phase of Liriano’s career and begin the third. After a subpar start to the season for both player and team, Liriano was traded for the third time in his career. This time saw him shipped to the Blue Jays along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez in exchange for Drew Hutchison.
He was traded for the last time at the deadline the next season. The Astros acquired Liriano for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez. He shifted to the bullpen, becoming a lefty specialist and winning a World Series with the 2017 Astros. He recorded a valuable out in each of game six and game seven, retiring Cody Bellinger on both occasions.
Because of the speed at which Liriano burst onto the scene, he probably ended up being slightly underrated throughout his career, one marked by reinvention. No matter the trial, Liriano pushed through it, making 300 career starts and appearing in 419 career games, tossing 1,813 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.15 career ERA and 3.88 career FIP. He was an All-Star, a World Series winner, and he even tossed a no-hitter while a member of the Twins back in 2011. Congratulations to Liriano on a truly remarkable career.
Can The White Sox Make The Most Of Andrew Vaughn?
The White Sox have one of the best closers of his generation burning a hole in their pocket. Craig Kimbrel‘s trade availability is no secret, so much so that speculation has reached the what-happens-if-they-don’t-trade-him part of the trade rumors life cycle, as explored yesterday by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk. That said, when GM Rick Hahn picks up the phone to talk shop with one of the other 29 general managers, Kimbrel’s not likely the sole topic of conversation.
After all, determining value for a player like Kimbrel can often be accomplished by touching on a number of evaluative points, i.e. players, before circling back to the original focus. And of course, sometimes those conversation never return to the original player of focus at all. Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports speculates on who some of those other players are that the White Sox might bandy about in trade talks. This practice mostly amounts to a listing of the White Sox prospects and young players who haven’t yet established themselves in full-time roles, and sure enough, for Chicago’s Southsiders, they are the type of win-now club that must consider moving prospects.
The top player on Duber’s list (after Kimbrel), is Andrew Vaughn, the third overall pick of the 2019 draft. After an explosive season with the California Golden Bears, Vaughn was seen as a potential fast-riser, but it was still surprising to see the White Sox take a first baseman third overall, behind only superstars-in-waiting Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Impressive though his bat was, first baseman simply don’t usually go that high in the draft.
What’s more, the White Sox already had a first baseman in Jose Abreu. Abreu hadn’t yet put up his 2020 MVP season, but internally, the organization has always held him in high regard. Drafting for positional need isn’t exactly the rule of thumb for the MLB draft, of course. Regardless, at the time, Abreu was a potential free agent at the end of the year. So Vaughn, besides being a high-end college bat, benefited the White Sox as an insurance policy and negotiating tactic even before he donned a uniform.
Vaughn being blocked at first by Abreu was an easy can to kick down the road for Chicago’s draft team, but the hypothetical quandary actualized in 2021 as Vaughn approached big-league readiness. Though 2019 was his only season of minor league experience because of the pandemic, the White Sox nevertheless deemed Vaughn ready for the show in 2021, and they didn’t let the fact that there wasn’t an avenue to regular playing time stop them from placing Vaughn on the opening day roster. Of course, injuries cleared a path: all Vaughn had to do was learn a new position on the fly at the highest level of the sport.
All things considered, Vaughn held his own rather well in his rookie season, slashing .235/.309/.396 across 469 plate appearances while spending time at first base, left field, right field, second base, and third base. His performance at the plate was a touch disappointing as he finished six percent worse than average with a 94 wRC+, but if anyone deserves a little grace, it’s Vaughn.
Again, let’s consider the circumstances. Vaughn played his age-23 season not having played organized baseball in more than a year, never having appeared above High-A while adjusting to life as a part-time player and learning not one, but four new positions. He did so for a team with postseason expectations that absolutely did not have time to wait for Vaughn to “grow up.” He did so while taking the place of not one, but two injured outfielders in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert who had quickly become the faces of the rising power in Armour Square. Even to be roughly the value of a replacement player under those circumstances (0.2 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR) has to be counted as a win for the ChiSox. The future is bright for Vaughn, with Steamer projecting Vaughn to become a 114 wRC+ hitter by next season.
For a high draft pick debuting for a championship contender, Vaughn’s national spotlight was surprisingly dim. His low profile can be partially attributed to the other stars on the team that pull attention their way, it could be partially attributed to the fact that the White Sox ran away with the division, but most of all, it’s probably attributable to the fact that part-time players rarely take center stage. And as Gavin Sheets, another rookie bat, crushed righty after righty, Vaughn was more-and-more relegated to the short-side platoon duties for which he was probably best suited.
Vaughn’s platoon splits are hard to ignore. The young slugger mauled southpaws to the tune of a 156 wRC+ with a .269/.383/.555 line. Against right-handers, Vaughn shrunk to a .221/.277/.332 triple slash, a mere 68 wRC+. Based on that production, Vaughn is already an elite short-side platoon bat. The question is whether he can grow to be more than that if he’s not getting those at-bats against same-handed hurlers. The White Sox will be heavy favorites in the AL Central, but the Royals and Tigers are rising, and the Twins and Guardians were formidable foes not long ago. It’s fair to question whether they can give him that time and space to develop.
We have to ask the question: should the White Sox trade Vaughn? For as much as Chicago will be favorited, they have holes to fill at second base, right field, and potentially in the rotation. It would hurt to move Vaughn, but to Duber’s point, we need only return to the Kimbrel trade to see Hahn’s willingness to shuffle pieces around to meet positional need – even when that means sacrificing young players. Last year’s trade of Nick Madrigal was a particular circumstance, of course, where Madrigal’s injury rendered him a zero in 2021. Hahn saw the potential to turn Madrigal’s zero into positive points on the ledger as they made a bid to be World Series contenders.
Of course, given how that turned out for Chicago, Hahn might think twice about making a similar move. That said, moving Vaughn would be a similar move if Vaughn is going to continue as a part-time player. Turning part-time production into full-time production would be a similar capitalization of resources, but that assumes that Chicago won’t find a way to get Vaughn into the lineup on a regular basis. Besides, his long-term potential coupled with his elite production against lefties might be enough for Hahn to tighten his grip on Vaughn, regardless of what kind of player he could get in return.
There’s also the matter of Vaughn’s “versatility,” which Chicago certainly utilized in 2021. Vaughn didn’t embarrass himself defensively at any position, but he also wasn’t a positive in any spot. Sure, they can continue to move him around the diamond as needs arise, but that might not be the best way to maximize Vaughn as a resource.
There are basically two avenues that the White Sox will want to consider for Vaughn as a resource. How can they maximize his value to help this team right now, and how can they best develop Vaughn as a player to reach his substantial ceiling? If they feel confident in aligning those tracks, then there’s no reason to consider moving Vaughn, not when alternatives to fill those roster holes remain. If the White Sox have doubts about their ability to multi-task Vaughn’s development, then it’s worth considering his value on the market.
Then again, what exactly would they be targeting in a deal? A regular second baseman or right fielder with similar team control and potential. Say, a Nick Madrigal type? I kid. But maybe they could pair Vaughn with Kimbrel to get a true in-their-prime superstar in return? Unfortunately, Kimbrel and Vaughn together offer the wrong blend of win-now and build-to-the-future potential for a team that might be willing to subtract a “true superstar.” Besides, there are only so many young players who have proven themselves to be Major League players that a team wants to surrender, even if they have holes to fill.
These deals happen, of course, and they’re rarely easy to spot before the trades are delivered to the league office. The Brewers and Rays excel at these types of deals, but they typically avoid any preciousness about their young players. The White Sox don’t have quite that history. Therefore, more than likely, Vaughn will continue his development as a member of the 2022 White Sox, sometimes playing right field, sometimes playing first base, always crushing lefties, and hopefully beginning to find his way to holding down an everyday spot in the lineup – and that much is true no matter what uniform he wears.
What If The White Sox Don’t Trade Craig Kimbrel?
While the White Sox exercised their $16MM club option on Craig Kimbrel back in November, Chicago GM’s Rick Hahn hinted that the veteran closer could very well be in a different uniform come Opening Day 2022. “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?” Hahn told reporters, thus setting the stage for weeks of trade rumors before the lockout halted all big league trade activity. The signing of Kendall Graveman prior to the transactions freeze also seemed to indicate that Kimbrel would be moved, as the White Sox now had his replacement readied.
Kimbrel’s salary, age (he turns 34 in May), his lack of success in 2019 and 2020, and his struggles after joining the Sox at the trade deadline are all notable obstacles to any deal. The clearest avenue towards a trade might be some kind of swap of unfavorable contracts, with the White Sox moving Kimbrel for another high-salaried player that could be a fit for second base, right field, or another of Chicago’s positions of need. Or, in a longer shot, there might be a bullpen-needy team out there willing to cover most or all of Kimbrel’s contract, with this team less focused on Kimbrel’s aforementioned red flags and more on the incredible numbers he posted for the Cubs during the first four months of the 2021 campaign.
As much as Kimbrel didn’t pitch well post-trade, his early-season dominance can’t be written off. Kimbrel posted a 0.49 ERA, 46.7% strikeout rate, and a 37.2% strikeout-to-walk rate, looking all the world like he’d bounced back to his early-career star form. This performance was why the Cubs were able to command a high price for Kimbrel at the deadline, resulting in the acquisition of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer from their Windy City rivals.
Declining Kimbrel’s option would’ve meant the White Sox would’ve gotten nothing at all for that big trade outlay. So, as risky as it may seem, exercising Kimbrel’s option and dealing him now might allow the Sox salvage a good return (if obviously not a Madrigal/Heuer return) and get a new player who can help them take that next step forward in the postseason.
But, for all of the Kimbrel trade speculation, there has been far less buzz over the other portion of Hahn’s statement. While it can be assumed that the team’s preference is to work out a trade, what if such an acceptable deal can’t be found, and thus “it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward“?
NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber recently explored the challenges of a Kimbrel trade, and floated the possibility that Kimbrel might wind up returning to the White Sox bullpen. “Yes, it would seem quite strange for Hahn to take the seemingly significant step of talking about a Kimbrel trade in the open only to not make a deal,” Duber notes, and yet it isn’t exactly a worst-case scenario for the Sox to have what might be a potentially loaded bullpen.
With closer Liam Hendriks headlining a group of Kimbrel, Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Jose Ruiz, and (depending on how he is deployed) Garrett Crochet, there’s a lot of talent in that relief corps. This type of depth might also be a necessity given the questions in Chicago’s rotation — Carlos Rodon seems likely to sign elsewhere in free agency, Dallas Keuchel struggled in 2021, and Michael Kopech might not yet be ready to assume a full starters’ workload. If the White Sox bullpen can consistently eat three or more innings per game, however, that significantly reduces what is required of the starters, and helps keep them fresh for the playoffs.
This assumes that Kimbrel will be a solid contributor himself in 2022, rather than the homer-prone reliever who allowed five home runs and posted a 5.09 ERA over 23 innings with the ChiSox. As small as that sample size is, Kimbrel’s 36 2/3 innings with the Cubs last season isn’t much larger, so it remains to be seen exactly which Kimbrel might show up next year.
Breaking down Kimbrel’s Sox tenure, it is worth noting that a lot of his problems were contained to two brutal games — ironically, both against the Cubs. Kimbrel allowed three runs over two-thirds of an inning against the Cubs on August 6, and then three more runs against his former team in an inning of work on August 27. Subtract those two outings from the equation, and Kimbrel suddenly has a much more impressive 2.95 ERA over 21 1/3 frames with the White Sox, and only two home runs allowed.
There might also be a more basic reason why Kimbrel didn’t pitch well with the White Sox. The right-hander tossed only 36 total regular-season innings over the 2019-20 seasons, before jumping back up to 59 2/3 IP in 2021. As Jordan Lazowski of the Sox On 35th blog observed, Kimbrel’s fastball velocity declined by 1.7 mph from June to September, leading to a natural decrease in the quality of his fastball, and some mechanical issues that seemed to develop as Kimbrel tried to adjust and compensate.
In theory, if the 2021 season helped get Kimbrel’s arm re-acclimated to an increased workload, it could bode well for the righty to keep things going for all six months of the next regular season (and, the White Sox hope, into October). This is another instance where a deep Chicago bullpen can come in handy, as if Tony La Russa can pick and choose from several quality options for close late-game situations, Kimbrel’s innings can be managed to some extent.
Keeping Kimbrel’s $16MM on the books gives the White Sox less flexibility for other moves this winter, as the Pale Hose are already projected for a team-record high number of roughly $180MM in 2022. Yet, if Hahn and company can move some other money around to get that second baseman or right fielder, or if ownership green-lights more spending, a Kimbrel deal wouldn’t be so critical to Chicago’s post-lockout plans.
AL East Notes: Guerrero, Bichette, LeMahieu, Camden Yards
The futures of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are “the most pivotal bigger-picture personnel matter facing the Blue Jays,” Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes, and it remains to be see if both young stars will remain in Toronto over the long term. Guerrero and Bichette are both controlled via arbitration through the 2025 season, and since their price tags will only rise (Guerrero is already arb-eligible as a Super Two player and projected for $7.9MM in 2022), locking them up sooner rather than later would be beneficial for the Jays. That said, the two players have already done enough to ensure any long-term extensions would cost the Blue Jays a sizeable amount, certainly far more than $200MM and maybe even nearer the $300MM mark depending on the number of years involved.
As Davidi notes, Jose Berrios is the only Toronto player under contract beyond 2026, so the Jays have somewhat kept their long-term ledger clear in the event that Guerrero and/or Bichette are indeed extended to major deals. Speaking of the “and/or” usage, the Blue Jays might opt to just extend one of the two, “and the relationship dynamic between team and player could be impacted if there’s only one extension.” It will make for a fascinating topic for the coming years in Toronto, as Guerrero and Bichette’s contract situations weigh heavily on both the Jays, and on other players and teams around baseball looking to those two as possible precedents and comps.
More from around the AL East…
- Yankees officials believe DJ LeMahieu‘s lackluster 2021 could be traced to a sports hernia that the infielder tried to play through before finally getting surgery after the season, The New York Post’s Dan Martin writes. A healthy LeMahieu that could return to his 2019-20 form would be an enormous help for the Bronx Bombers as they continue to figure out their infield picture, as LeMahieu’s position next season is still up in the air. Presuming New York does acquire a regular shortstop, LeMahieu seems set to toggle between third, second, and first base, with Gleyber Torres set for regular duty at the keystone and Gio Urshela and Luke Voit penciled into at least part-time duty at the corner spots.
- Renovations to Camden Yards’ left field area are intended to make the ballpark a little less treacherous for Orioles pitchers, and also to any future pitchers the team might be looking to eventually sign. As GM Mike Elias told The Athletic’s Dan Connolly and other reporters, the Orioles’ ability to attract free agent pitchers was “definitely a significant factor in” the decision to renovate. “The conditions here have been very extreme, towards the very most extreme in the league….It has been the case for decades and part of having a winning program is the ability to recruit free-agent pitchers, and that has been a historical challenge for this franchise,” Elias said. While Connolly doesn’t believe the team will ever be a true destination for ace-level free agent hurlers, changing the dimensions might at least help the O’s land some mid-level veterans or bounce-back candidates, who might’ve been normally wary about working at such a hitter-friendly venue.