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Ryon Healy Elects Free Agency

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Brewers infielder Ryon Healy has rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A and has elected to become a free agent, the team announced.  This is the second straight winter that Healy has made such a decision, opting to enter free agency last offseason when the Mariners outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

Healy signed a one-year deal with Milwaukee last December and ended up playing four big league games during the 2020 regular season, though Healy was also the Brewers’ starting designated hitter in Game 2 of their wild card series against the Dodgers.  Injuries (most notably to Ryan Braun) and a lack of hitting depth on the Brewers’ roster led to Healy’s unexpected playoff duty, and he went 0-for-3 in what ended up being Milwaukee’s last game of 2020.

It wasn’t long ago that Healy was a potential building block piece by the Mariners, who acquired him from the A’s in the 2017-18 offseason.  He couldn’t build on the promising numbers he posted in Oakland, however, and simply couldn’t consistently get on base against Major League pitching.  Over 1606 career plate appearances in the big leagues, Healy has hit .261/.298/.450 with 69 home runs.  He was also significantly hampered by injuries in 2019, undergoing hip surgery in August of that year.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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What was supposed to be a win-now Rangers club finished with one of MLB’s worst records, so 2021 is now looking like a re-evaluation and rebuilding year in Arlington.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $28MM through 2022
  • Rougned Odor, 2B: $27MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of 2023 club option)
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP: $17MM through 2022
  • Jose Leclerc, RHP: $9.5MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of 2023 club option; contract also contains 2024 option)
  • Lance Lynn, RHP: $8MM through 2021
  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $7MM through 2021
  • Joely Rodriguez, LHP: $3MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of 2022 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $18MM club option on RHP Corey Kluber (Paid $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Emboldened by big 2019 performances from Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as well as the ostensible promise of heightened revenue from a new stadium, the Rangers had an active 2019-20 offseason, headlined by their acquisition of Corey Kluber. The idea was that the trio of Kluber, Lynn and Minor could headline a rotation also featuring breakout hopefuls Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, propelling the Rangers back to contention in the American League West.

Murphy’s Law had other ideas. Not only did the organization — like every other club — not get the revenue boost on which it had banked, but many key parts of the Texas roster were waylaid by injuries. Kluber pitched just one inning before being sidelined by a Grade 2 teres major strain and his club option was bought out, likely ending his tenure in Arlington. Days after Kluber went down, the Rangers lost closer Jose Leclerc to the exact same injury, ending Leclerc’s season after just two innings. Meanwhile, Minor battled shoulder fatigue early in the year and saw his results deteriorate as his velocity dipped by two miles per hour.

The Rangers struck gold on their three-year deals for Minor and Lynn, the latter of which registered as a surprise at the time. The hope was that multi-year deals for Gibson and Lyles would reap similar benefits, but both pitchers were shelled in their first seasons with Texas. To his credit, Gibson at least soaked up 67 1/3 innings (tying him for 23rd among all big league pitchers), but a 5.35 ERA and fielding-independent metrics to match weren’t what the front office had in mind when signing him. Lyles’ 7.02 ERA was the worst in baseball among the 111 pitchers to throw at least 40 innings.

Injuries persisted up and down the Texas lineup, where only three players — Nick Solak, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Joey Gallo — even managed to top 40 games played and 150 plate appearances.

Twenty-five-year-old Willie Calhoun looked to be on the cusp of a breakout following a strong half-season to close the 2019 campaign, but he suffered a broken jaw after being hit by a pitch in the face during the original Spring Training, and then battled hamstring troubles once play finally commenced. The resulting .190/.231/.260 slash could be attributable to Calhoun’s issues, but it probably doesn’t fill the club with confidence. The Rangers had similar hopes for a Solak breakout, but his power completely evaporated en route to a .268/.326/.344 output. Ronald Guzman again was unable to seize the everyday job at first base.

Most problematic of all for the Rangers, though, is the continued Rougned Odor dilemma and the 2020 decline of his double play partner, Elvis Andrus. Odor has become a focal point for frustrated fans in recent years — understandably so — but tested the organization’s patience even more in 2020 with a career-worst .167/.209/.413 slash. Andrus, too, had the worst season of his career: .194/.252/.330. Both are signed through 2022 still, with Odor guaranteed $27MM and Andrus guaranteed $28MM.

There’s perhaps still some hope for Andrus, who was dogged by a .200 BABIP in a tiny 111-plate appearance sample this year and has generally been an above-average defender and baserunner. A back injury sent Andrus to the IL on multiple occasions in 2020 as well, so there’s a physical reason for his downturn at the plate. If he can rebound to his previous offensive output in 2021-22, his glove and baserunning should allow him to be a serviceable option at shortstop.

Odor carries less reason for optimism. He’s been below-average at the plate for four years running now, his two 30-homer campaigns overshadowed by a combined .279 OBP, and has seen his strikeout troubles soar to new heights since 2019. This year’s 31.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and Odor also pops up to the infield at one of the highest rates in the game. In the past, strong exit velocities have given some hope for improved future performance, but Odor’s exit velocity plummeted by a whopping five miles per hour in 2020.

With all the Rangers’ struggles and their inability to develop talent of late — consider that they entered the season without a single homegrown rotation member — it’s no wonder that Daniels has spoken of a step back to focus on youth while owner Ray Davis has cautioned that payroll will drop.

One clear means of working toward those ends would be to aggressively shop Odor, even if it meant paying down a large portion of his salary to facilitate a trade. Given the scope of his struggles and the current economic landscape of the game, though, it’s quite possible that the Rangers won’t find a trade and need to simply move on. That could come in the form of a release or simply relegating him to a seldom-used bench piece, but continuing to give Odor regular playing time only compounds the mistake that was his six-year, $49.5MM extension.

The Rangers’ other problem is that Odor isn’t exactly blocking many quality second base options. If the club isn’t convinced of the aforementioned Solak’s ability to play second base and prefers to keep both him and Calhoun in the outfield/designated hitter mix, immediate alternatives are sparse. Prospect Anderson Tejeda got his feet wet in 2020, but he struggled through 77 plate appearances, as one would expect from a 22-year-old who made the jump from Class-A Advanced to the Majors thanks to the lack of a minor league season. The 25-year-old Kiner-Falefa could conceivably play some second base, but he thrived defensively at third base this year, so the club may wish to leave him there until top prospect Josh Jung is ready for a big league look — likely in 2022.

The lack of immediate infield depth should spur the Rangers to bring in some potential long-term fits. The most straightforward path to doing so could very well be in free agency. Most of the domestic free agents who are hitting the market are well into or even beyond their primes, but some controllable players could hit the market after the non-tender deadline.

More interesting, though, is 25-year-old Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim. Arguably the best player in the KBO, Kim will be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this winter. Signing Kim is akin to simply purchasing a Top 100 prospect for any big league club, and the Rangers could offer him regular playing time at second base or third base, with a combination of Kiner-Falefa, Solak and Odor (if he’s still in the picture) manning the other spot. Daniels has cautioned against viewing free agency as a “shortcut” to build the roster back up, although Kim’s age makes him a unique entrant into the market that could align with the organization’s vision.

Beyond that, however, comments from Daniels and Davis suggest that free-agent activity will be limited. Texas could look to broker some affordable deals on the margins of the market, offering bullpen innings late in the offseason to relievers who’ve struggled to find a home and perhaps poking around the market of non-tendered players. But, trades and waiver claims figure to be a greater focus for the organization.

With that in mind, it could be that Lynn has thrown his final pitch as a Ranger. Daniels held off on trading him at the Aug. 31 deadline, implying after the fact that moving Lynn would have simply been making a trade just to make a trade. “I would not have been proud of some of those deals if we made them,” Daniels told reporters following the deadline (link via Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News). “I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.” If the offers for Lynn were indeed that weak, it’s sensible to have waited until the winter.

There’s an argument, of course, that Lynn’s value has only gone down because he’s controlled only for one playoff run and didn’t pitch as well post-deadline. At the same time, there’s a greater number of clubs now looking to fortify their rotations. The Reds, for instance, weren’t in the market for rotation help in August but could be now if Trevor Bauer walks. Other teams may have been maxed out from a budgetary standpoint in August but could now more capably absorb Lynn’s reasonable $8MM salary for the 2021 campaign. The market for Lynn should still be robust, with some speculative suitors including the Braves, Reds, Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

If the Rangers aren’t intent on making a win-now push in 2021, then it also stands to reason that they should be open to offers on slugger Joey Gallo. He’s coming off a down season at the plate after a huge 2019 campaign, but Gallo has as much power as anyone in the game and has emerged as a top-notch defender in the outfield. With two seasons of club control left and his 27th birthday still two weeks away as of this writing, Gallo could tempt clubs with a 40-homer bat and Gold Glove potential.

The bullpen might offer another handful of trade options. Leclerc, 27 next month, would be appealing given that he’s owed $9.75MM through 2022 and can be controlled through 2024 via a pair of club options ($6MM in 2023, $6.25MM in 2024). Texas may not want to sell low on Leclerc after an injury-shortened season, but clubs figure to come calling. The Rangers’ more likely trade candidates, however, could be lesser-noticed names.

Southpaw Joely Rodriguez received a two-year deal that seemed to come out of the blue for many onlookers, but he was quite effective in his return from Japan. He’s owed a $2.5MM salary next season and controlled through 2022 via a similarly affordable $3MM club option. At a time when it looks like clubs will be rather conservative with their bullpen expenditures, two years of a 29-year-old lefty who throws 95 mph at a total of $5.5MM is a nice player to peddle on the trade market.

Similarly, many fans may not even be aware of Rafael Montero’s resurgence since signing with the Rangers. The former Mets top prospect missed 2018 due to injury but has bounced back with a 3.09 ERA and a terrific 53-to-11 K/BB ratio in 46 2/3 innings as a Ranger. Montero, who notched eight saves in 2020 and is now averaging better than 96 mph on his heater, is controlled via arbitration through 2022.

Overall, the Rangers are in a tough spot. Their current MLB roster isn’t good enough to contend, but their farm system ranks among the game’s weakest thanks to some injuries to high draft picks and stalled development of others. With the possible exception of promising young catcher Sam Huff and outfielder Leody Taveras, reinforcements aren’t on the immediate horizon.

All that said, the Rangers only have $39MM on the books in 2022 and don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the 2023 payroll. It’s also important to note that this is an ownership group that has shown a prior willingness to spend and does still have the allure of a new stadium to draw fans once attendance levels are green-lit to return to full capacity. As such, an arduous, multi-year rebuild isn’t a foregone conclusion. The upcoming offseason will likely be focused on acquiring controllable young talent, but if the club can convert on some young talent, we could see Texas jump back into a more aggressive offseason approach a year or two from now.

Pirates Re-Sign Andrew Susac

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The Pirates have signed catcher Andrew Susac to a new minor league deal, Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle reports.  Susac initially signed a minors contract with the Bucs last January and was outrighted off Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster following the season.

Susac ended up appearing in a single game for the Pirates in 2020, marking his first big league action since the 2018 season (he spent 2019 with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate).  In 304 plate appearances over parts of six MLB seasons, Susac has hit .219/.286/.371 with seven home runs.

With Susac back in the fold, the Pirates have retained some veteran catching depth as they go through that could be a semi-overhaul of their options behind the plate.  Pittsburgh already claimed Michael Perez from the Rays earlier this week and the arbitration-eligible John Ryan Murphy and Luke Maile both look like non-tender candidates.  Jacob Stallings (also eligible for arbitration for the first time) was the Pirates’ starting catcher in 2020 and looks like the favorite for regular duty next year.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves won the National League East for the third straight year in 2020, but they fell to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in the LCS. Atlanta is now at risk of losing some important contributors to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Braves have managed to pull off highly successful position players signings in each of the previous two offseasons. Heading into 2019, they added third baseman Josh Donaldson on a one-year, $23MM contract. The former MVP proceeded to rebound as a Brave, but they let him go last winter in lieu of giving him a longer deal. To replace Donaldson’s punch in their lineup, the Braves took the one-year route again when they inked outfielder Marcell Ozuna for $18MM. Like the Donaldson signing, the Ozuna pact couldn’t have gone much better for Atlanta. An above-average hitter throughout his career, the 29-year-old Ozuna found another gear in 2020 with an all-world .338/.431/.636 line and an NL-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances.

While the Braves have benefited greatly from Ozuna, it’s possible his time in their uniform is up. The club has to decide in the coming weeks how far they’re willing to go to re-sign Ozuna, who MLBTR predicts will land a four-year, $72MM payday in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos couldn’t issue Ozuna a qualifying offer after the Cardinals gave him one last year, so he may end up walking for nothing. Naturally, Anthopoulos has said he’d like to retain Ozuna. However, he didn’t make it sound like a slam dunk, and Anthopoulos also pointed out that it would be nice to have clarity on a potential 2021 DH. Ozuna spent most of his season there, lining up in the outfield 21 times.

In the event Ozuna leaves, the Braves will have several possible paths they could take to try to replace him. George Springer is the best outfielder in free agency, but the Braves could instead opt for another short-term play with someone like Michael Brantley or Joc Pederson if they want a proven hitter capable of playing left field to replace Ozuna.

Alternatively, the Braves could re-sign Nick Markakis — though that seems doubtful after his rough year — and/or simply stick with their in-house options as they wait for prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to take on major league roles. They do have several options with Ronald Acuna Jr., Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Ender Inciarte, Abraham Almonte and Johan Camargo on hand. The problem is that Acuna is the only player there who’s truly capable of striking fear into teams. In an ideal world, the Braves will be able to shed Inciarte’s $9.025MM in a trade, but that will be a challenge . Inciarte endured a terrible 2020, which will make teams even less likely to take on his money in today’s economic climate. The Braves would likely need to pay down a notable portion of the deal or take another bad contract back in return.

Moving elsewhere in the Braves’ lineup, the team has serious questions at third base. Riley is their main option there, but he had a disappointing year. So did Camargo, who now looks like a potential non-tender candidate. If the Braves are dissatisfied with them, they won’t be able to find much on the market after Justin Turner. He could make sense as another of Anthopoulos’ one- or two-year signings, though it remains to be seen whether he’d leave Los Angeles.

Another name to watch could be Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, a prime trade candidate in whom the Braves have shown interest in the past. Bryant had a poor year in 2020 and will come with a salary in the $19MM range, meaning his value is depressed. That could give the Braves an opportunity to strike for a reasonable cost and hope the former MVP can regain his usual form in his final year of team control. He’d fit the Anthopoulos mold of a high-upside, one-year commitment to a star-caliber player.

The Braves are also going to have to address their pitching staff to some extent. They received brutal injury blows this year with Mike Soroka blowing out his Achilles tendon and Cole Hamels dealing with persistent arm issues. Hamels, whom the Braves signed to a one-year, $18MM contract last offseason, was a bust due to those injuries and should be expected to land elsewhere in free agency. Soroka will be back to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson, though, which will give the Braves an elite-looking trio at the helm of their rotation. That means they don’t necessarily have to shop at the absolute top of the market for Trevor Bauer, but it’s worth noting they don’t have any established hurlers behind Soroka, Fried and Anderson.

With the Braves likely to add at least one starter, Anthopoulos could look to reunite with one of the other top names available, Marcus Stroman. There’s a clear connection between the two, as Anthopoulos was the Blue Jays’ GM when they drafted Stroman in 2012. Less expensive possibilities in free agency could include ex-Brave Charlie Morton (who wants to stay on the East Coast), Adam Wainwright (whom the Braves have already contacted), Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, J.A. Happ, Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Taijuan Walker and Atlanta resident Jon Lester, among others. The Rangers’ Lance Lynn should be popular in trade talks, as he’s due an ultra-affordable $8MM in 2021 and may appeal to Atlanta as another one-year fit.

As is the case with their rotation, the Braves’ bullpen will undergo changes in the coming months. There has already been one significant development with the team’s choice to decline its $3.5MM option over Darren O’Day. The move saved the Braves $3MM, but it still came as a surprise to see them part with O’Day in the wake of an outstanding season. He’s now a free agent along with Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Josh Tomlin, who joined O’Day in providing effective production in 2020.

While Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Chris Martin and A.J. Minter will again be in the fold next season, the Braves will have to replace at least some of their departing relievers. There won’t be any shortage of options on the market, which is led by Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal and Blake Treinen. Alex Colome, Greg Holland, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee are also among those looking for work.

Along with handling outside business, it’s possible the Braves will attempt to extend superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman before next season. The franchise icon and career-long Brave is coming off his best season yet, one that should earn him NL MVP honors, and will enter a contract year in 2021. Freeman has said he’d like to remain a Brave (the feeling is surely mutual), though it’ll be costly for the club to keep him. The 31-year-old wouldn’t be out of line asking for a comparable extension to the five-year, $130MM guarantee the Cardinals gave first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in 2019. Of course, that was before the pandemic hit and damaged the game’s economy.

Locking up Freeman could certainly be on the Braves’ to-do list. He’ll be back in 2021 regardless, though, and it’s clear Anthopoulos has other work to do this offseason if he’s going to build a fourth straight division winner and a World Series-caliber roster.

Ben Cherington On Archer, Neverauskas, Cruz

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Pirates general manager Ben Cherington spoke with reporters Monday as the team gears up for the offseason. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights…

  • Although the Pirates declined right-hander Chris Archer’s $11MM option over the weekend, his time with the franchise may not be up. Cherington said the Pirates are open to re-signing Archer at a lower cost, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette tweets. “Our relationship with Chris is in a good enough spot where we can keep that door cracked,” Cherington stated. “Certainly, he’ll want to listen and see what’s out there.” Archer had a well-documented disastrous run in Pittsburgh, which paid a fortune for him in a 2018 trade with Tampa Bay. He didn’t pitch at all this season after undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June, though the 32-year-old could be an intriguing buy-low candidate.
  • The Pirates may have also moved on from righty Dovydas Neverauskas this past weekend when they designated him for assignment. The soon-to-be 28-year-old’s next destination could be overseas, according to Cherington, who revealed that there’s mutual interest between Neverauskas and “a team in Asia” (via Mackey). Neverauskas began with the Pirates organization in 2010, made his big league debut in 2017 and went on to log a 6.81 ERA/5.94 FIP with 8.59 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 80 2/3 innings with the club.
  • Infield prospect Oneil Cruz was arraigned in his native Dominican Republic in September as a result of a car crash that took the lives of three people. Cherington was unable to provide an update on Cruz’s legal situation, per Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. For now, the 22-year-old is slated to play Dominican winter ball for Gigantes del Cibao, the team announced.

MLBTR Poll: NL Cy Young Finalists

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With voting season in full swing, the The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced finalists for several high-profile awards on Monday. The National League Cy Young was among them, leaving this year’s voters to decide among the Reds’ Trevor Bauer, the Cubs’ Yu Darvish and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom. The question is: Which right-hander do you think they should choose?

When it came to preventing runs in 2020, no qualified NL starter was superior to Bauer, now a free agent whose platform year came at an ideal time. The 29-year-old easily paced his league in ERA (1.73). He also ranked second in the NL in strikeouts per nine (12.33), third in K/BB ratio (5.88) and fWAR (2.5), fourth in bWAR (2.7), fifth in FIP (2.88) and sixth in innings (73).

Darvish equaled Bauer’s bWAR, but he upended him in the fWAR category (3.0; first). The resurgent 34-year-old also finished No. 1 in his league in FIP (2.23) while placing near the top in ERA (2.01; second), BB/9 (1.66; second), innings (76; third) and K/9 (11.01; eighth).

And there’s simply no slowing down deGrom, who’s the back-to-back winner of this award. The 32-year-old didn’t have the quite workload of Bauer or Darvish, as deGrom dealt with some injuries and wound up with 68 innings. As always, though, he was dominant. DeGrom finished first in K/9 (13.76), second in FIP (2.23) and fWAR (2.26), fourth in ERA (2.38) and K/BB ratio (5.78), and seventh in bWAR (2.6).

Looking at the exemplary numbers these three posted in 2020, it appears voters are going to have a hard time settling on a pick. There’s no wrong answer among the three, but which one do you prefer? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020.  Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series.  That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.

It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend.  More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity.  The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.

Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending.  The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.

Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards?  Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.

Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season.  Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation.  Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021.  Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff.  Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.

Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.”  This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.  A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.

Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer.  Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays.  Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.

Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out.  If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent.  A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier.  If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.

Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting.  Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past.  The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.

Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position.  Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present.  The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.

Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez.  Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.

As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season.  Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.

The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020.  Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.

It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher.  But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience.  As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.

There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.

Mike Foltynewicz, Jorge Bonifacio, Domingo Santana, Tyler Heineman Become Free Agents

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According to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America, 422 players became minor league free agents Monday. Hilburn-Trenkle provides the full list, but right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, outfielders Jorge Bonifacio and Domingo Santana, and catcher Tyler Heineman are among the notables.

Foltynewicz spent the previous six seasons with the Braves, and he looked like a front-line starter at times. During his best season, 2018, Foltynewicz threw 183 innings of 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP ball with 9.93 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. His career began coming off track the next season, though, as the Braves demoted him to Triple-A during the summer. While Foltynewicz did return to the majors and finish on a positive note, he wasn’t able to carry that momentum into 2020. The 29-year-old made just one appearance – on July 27 – gave up six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings and experienced an alarming drop in velocity, going from the 95 mph range to 90.5. The Braves then designated Foltynewicz for assignment, but no one claimed him and he spent the remainder of the year at their alternate training site.

The Indians took a $1.5MM gamble on Santana last winter after a 21-home run season with the Mariners, though he struggled in the second half of the 2019 campaign and hasn’t recovered since. He amassed 84 plate appearances as an Indian and hit a nonthreatening .157/.298/.286 with a pair of home runs. To no one’s surprise, the Indians declined the 28-year-old’s $5MM option for 2021.

Bonifacio was once a top 100 prospect with the Royals, but he has fallen on hard times since a promising start in 2017. An 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs limited him in 2018, during which he offered subpar production over 270 PA, and Bonifacio took only 21 trips to the plate the next season. The Royals then released Bonifacio, who signed a minors deal with the division-rival Tigers. Though he did get back to the majors with the Tigers, the 27-year-old logged the worst production of his career, hitting .221/.277/.326 line and two homers across 94 PA.

Heineman, an ex-Marlin, became a Giant on a minors pact in January. He cracked their season-opening roster, started Game 1 and was a regular into mid-August, but he lost almost all of his playing time to Joey Bart and Chadwick Tromp from there. Heineman ended the campaign with a .190/.292/.214 line and no homers in 50 attempts.

Giants Notes: Gausman, Righetti, Dunston

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Thanks to Kevin Gausman’s enormous rebound effort in San Francisco this year, the Giants decided over the weekend to issue the free-agent right-hander an $18.9MM qualifying offer. It’s possible Gausman will accept it by the Nov. 11 deadline, which Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic writes would be palatable for the Giants. However, the Giants are also interested in re-signing Gausman to a multiyear contract, according to Baggarly.

As a soon-to-be 30-year-old fresh off an excellent season, Gausman may be the second-most appealing starter on the open market. Indeed, the Giants do have him ranked as the No. 2 option available, trailing only ace Trevor Bauer, per Baggarly. While Gausman won’t do nearly as well as Bauer this winter, a deal in the three-year, $40MM to four-year, $50MM range isn’t out of the question, Baggarly notes. If the hard-throwing Gausman’s breakout continues, a contract along those lines could be a bargain.

Gausman has already given the Giants plenty of bang for their buck since they signed him to a $9MM guarantee last December. In what may go down as his only year as a Giant, he provided the club 59 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball with the National League’s seventh-best K/BB ratio (4.94; 11.92 K/9 against 2.41 BB/9) and its ninth-ranked FIP (3.09).

In other Giants news, the club has made a pair of noteworthy cuts behind the scenes, Baggarly relays. Longtime major league lefty and former Giant Dave Righetti is out after 21 years as an assistant. Righetti was the Giants’ pitch coach for 18 years, a span in which he helped the team to three World Series titles, before moving into a special assistant role prior to 2018. Along with Righetti, the Giants waved goodbye to Shawon Dunston, who held coaching roles with the organization for 12 years. Dunston had a long big league career as an infielder/outfielder and spent four seasons with the Giants.

Cardinals, Three Other Clubs In Touch With Yadier Molina

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Cardinals icon Yadier Molina has heard from three non-Cardinals clubs since free agency has begun, agent Melvin Roman tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, Roman did not specify which clubs have reached out to this point in the very young offseason. So far, this is shaping up to be something of a public-facing free agency for Molina, as Roman has already been willing to put his name on record in stating his client’s hope for a two-year deal as well.

It’s difficult to picture Molina in the uniform of any club other than the Cardinals after the 38-year-old has spent the past 17 years in St. Louis. But Molina raised some eyebrows among Cardinals fans earlier this year when he declared that he wanted to continue playing and was willing to do so even if it meant signing with a new club. Roman previously indicated that Molina is seeking a two-year deal that would carry him through age 40 and, perhaps, through the end of his likely Hall of Fame career.

While we don’t know yet — and may not know — which clubs plan to seriously pursue Molina, it’s not hard to look around the league and pick out some potential landing spots. There’s already speculation about the Yankees moving on from Gary Sanchez, for instance, and there would be few more dramatic ways to flip the narrative in the Bronx than to move from the free-swinging, defensively challenged Sanchez to the high-contact, defensively revered Molina.

Elsewhere, the Mets are on the lookout for a new backstop with Wilson Ramos hitting free agency. The Phillies could lose J.T. Realmuto this winter, and the Marlins are also expected to explore catching upgrades on the heels of their surprising playoff berth. The Angels could use an upgrade, too. Wherever Molina does go, it’s logical to expect him to sign with a club that has clear postseason aspirations — one that can offer him regular playing time. The nine-time Gold Glover and four-time Platinum Glover already has a pair of rings on his resume and surely would like to add another in the waning stages of his career.

Molina’s bat has tailed off since a solid 2018 showing, but he’s put together a respectable .268/.310/.388 batting line with 14 home runs and a lowly 13 percent strikeout rate through 608 plate appearances over the past two seasons. That level of production — an 86 wRC+ — is well south of the league average hitter but isn’t far off the mark of the performance of the average catcher. And Molina still has well-regarded defensive numbers, including above-average framing marks, a 31.7 percent caught-stealing rate since 2019 and his reputation as one of the game’s premier game callers.

One of the more intriguing storylines — or, for Cardinals fans, more unsettling storylines — to follow this winter will be the future of Molina and fellow Cardinals icon Adam Wainwright. Both aim to continue playing in 2021, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last month that the longtime teammates have even discussed the possibility of signing elsewhere as a pair in free agency. All else equal, both would prefer to return to St. Louis, it seems. However, the Cards do have a younger option behind the plate in Andrew Knizner, and there’s already been plenty of talk about the financial limitations the front office might face this offseason.

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