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Dombrowski Staying With Nashville Group, Not A Candidate For Current Front Office Openings

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Former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox baseball operations lead Dave Dombrowski has been regularly mentioned as a possible candidate for the Angels’ GM vacancy, but Dombrowski went on record with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to explain that he is committed to his current role with Music City Baseball and is not pursuing other opportunities in the sport.

Dombrowski, former D-backs GM Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa joined Music City Baseball, LLC back in July — an organization endeavoring to bring Major League Baseball to Nashville, Tenn. While La Russa was clearly open to other opportunities — he’s since been the surprise managerial pick of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf — Dombrowski tells Rosenthal that he signed a four-year contract and has no plans to change course.

“I’m staying in Nashville,” Dombrowski plainly stated, adding that he made “…a commitment when I moved here that as we continue to pursue a new team — expansion, relocation or if it goes nowhere — that I would stay here with them.”

For now, the Nashville group will continue its efforts to bring a team to Tennessee and Dombrowski will remain a major part of that effort. It’s likely, per Rosenthal, that if Dombrowski’s group is ultimately able to succeed in bringing an expansion club to the city, that he would head up that new club’s baseball ops department. Of course, that’s a rather long-term goal that likely won’t come to fruition at any point in the immediate future, if at all. Dombrowski did leave the door open for him to explore new MLB opportunities before the end of his current contract if eventually “there’s nothing at the end of the road” and “we don’t have an organization” any longer.

It’s clear, though, that Dombrowski’s name can be removed from speculation surrounding not only the Angels but the Marlins, Phillies and, if a change is made in New York under new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets.

Nationals To Re-Sign Aaron Barrett

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The Nationals have re-signed righty Aaron Barrett to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic reports (Twitter thread). The club has also re-signed infielders Adrian Sanchez and Brandon Snyder to minor league deals with camp invites.

Of the three, only Barrett logged time at the Major League level for the Nats in 2020. The 32-year-old righty (33 in January) looked to be emerging as a mainstay in the D.C. bullpen from 2014-15 before a torn UCL required Tommy John surgery. He fractured his elbow near the completion of that rehab stint, further derailing his return.

The Nats captured Double-A skipper Matthew LeCroy informing Barrett of his return to the Majors on video in 2019. That, coupled with Barrett becoming overwhelmed with emotion following his first big league appearance after close to a half decade of rehab, served as one of many feel-good stories in a magical campaign for the Nats.

Barrett has pitched just four innings in the Majors since that 2019 return, and he’ll now look for another opportunity to carve out a larger role in the Nationals’ relief corps. He’s been tagged for six runs in those four innings, but Barrett carried a 3.47 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 70 frames prior to running into his injury troubles.

Turning to the 30-year-old Sanchez, he spent parts of the 2017-19 seasons with the Nats, serving primarily as a utility infield piece. He’s appeared in a total of 90 big league games, all with the Nats, and posted a .263/.280/.331 batting line in 166 trips to the plate.

Snyder, 34 in a few weeks, spent the 2019 season with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate and returned on another minor league deal last winter. He hasn’t gotten to the Majors with the Nats and has only appeared in two MLB games since the conclusion of the 2016 season. A former first-round pick, Snyder has seen MLB action in parts of six seasons, during which time he’s batted .240/.276/.455 with nine homers, five doubles and a triple in 211 plate appearances. The corner infielder/outfielder belted 31 home runs for the Nats’ Triple-A club during that 2019 stint and has a career .773 OPS in parts of 10 seasons at that level.

Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

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There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Justin Turner

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The coda to an unforgettably weird 2020 baseball season came when Justin Turner celebrated with his Dodgers teammates in the wake of a mid-World Series COVID-19 diagnosis. That incident led Major League Baseball announce a “full investigation into this matter” in a statement that flatly panned Turner for his recklessness.

Now, the league and MLB Players Union are “moving closer to a resolution” of the case from a disciplinary perspective, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Just when we’ll learn of the outcome isn’t known; neither is it clear what range of punishment is under contemplation.

The league and union typically interact regarding disciplinary matters. There’s a reason that most PED or domestic violence-related suspensions are announced alongside the player’s decision not to challenge the result.

That was all the more necessary here. The league’s coronavirus protocols were jointly developed and obviously required significant buy-in from union officials and the players they represent. And Turner’s covid-shedding celebration presents a situation without any obvious precedent.

It seems we’ll have a final determination — and an opportunity for Turner to make some amends — before free agency begins in earnest (whenever that may be). Turner is one of the top available players on the open market this winter. It’s an open question whether and how the surreal scene will impact his free agency.

Looking For A Match In A Kris Bryant Trade

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As the Cubs look to shake up their offense and trim salary this winter, longtime third baseman Kris Bryant is likely to be on the trading block.  Bryant, drafted second overall in 2013, has one more year of control remaining following the worst season of his career.  Bryant managed just a 76 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances this year, battling a series of injuries.  In the five years prior, Bryant posted a 139 wRC+ and averaged over five wins above replacement per season, though his best production was concentrated at the beginning of his career.

Bryant has spent over 80% of his career defensive innings at third base, and metrics suggest he’s roughly average at the position.  The bulk of his remaining innings have come at the outfield corners.  It’s fair to say that Bryant can probably play all three of these positions capably, but he fits best as a third baseman.

Bryant was set to earn $18.6MM in 2020 before the season was cut short, and he’s arbitration eligible one last time before entering free agency after the 2021 season.  While a small raise looks likely, I expect his ’21 salary to fall short of $20MM.

In at least four different seasons in Bryant’s career, $20MM would have been a bargain.  But in the uncertain climate of the 2020-21 MLB offseason, the list of teams willing to spend that amount on a player coming off a bad year is likely to be short.  With demand low, the Cubs might receive a minimal return in trade this winter.  That could be a reason to keep Bryant for one last run in 2021, or at least hold him until the July trade deadline.

On the other hand, maybe the Cubs really want to reboot their offense this winter, and crave payroll flexibility.  At the least, they’ll listen to offers.  Keep in mind that Bryant is not actually under contract for 2021, and if the Cubs want sheer relief from the prospect of paying him, they could non-tender him on December 2nd and get nothing in return.  That seems unlikely for a player who was a star just a year ago.  As to the shape of a possible trade return, the Cubs probably can’t be too picky.  They could choose a return geared toward winning in 2021, or seek players with multiple years of control remaining.  They could look for players earning the league minimum, or accept someone making millions but still less than Bryant.  They could fill rotation or outfield holes, or just take the best available offer.  With that in mind, let’s dig into possible suitors.

We’ll begin by eliminating the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and White Sox.  It seems highly unlikely to me that the Cubs, who are assumed to be trying to win in 2021, would trade Bryant to a division or crosstown rival with the same goal.  We’ll also strike the Orioles and Rangers, who do not seem positioned for a push toward contention in 2021.  We’ll cross off the Pirates for both reasons.

Here’s what we have left.

Teams That Could Afford Bryant And Could Make Room At Third Base

  • Blue Jays: The Jays’ primary third baseman in 2020 was Travis Shaw, and he’s a non-tender candidate.  As GM Ross Atkins put it, “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  Bryant fits the bill.
  • Nationals: Carter Kieboom struggled mightily for the Nats this year, and sliding Bryant in at third base for a year would be an easy fit.
  • Braves: Austin Riley is the Braves’ incumbent at the hot corner, and his career has begun with an 87 wRC+ over 503 plate appearances.  Bryant would fit with GM Alex Anthopoulos’ recent strategy of high-dollar one-year deals for Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna.
  • Dodgers: Replacing free agent Justin Turner with Bryant would be a bold move, but if that’s the Dodgers’ preference it’s a viable option.
  • Tigers: The Tigers don’t seem close enough to contending to acquire a one-year rental like Bryant.  But they could afford him, and primary third baseman Isaac Paredes did not play well this year.  If the Tigers go on a spending spree with an eye on contending in 2021, Bryant could theoretically be a part of that.

Teams That Could Afford Bryant But Would Have To Use Him In An Outfield Corner

  • Astros: The Astros have Alex Bregman locked in at third base, so Bryant would have to spend 2021 mostly playing right field.  It’s not a crazy idea.
  • Giants: Bryant offers more upside than incumbent third baseman Evan Longoria, but Longoria is under contract through 2022.  Bryant would probably have to slot in at left field for the Giants over Alex Dickerson.  It’s not an ideal fit for a team seeking a left-handed-hitting infielder.
  • Marlins: Whether the Marlins could afford Bryant is up for debate, but I think it’s somewhat possible.  They’ve got Brian Anderson at third base, but didn’t get much at the outfield corners in 2020.  JJ Bleday isn’t quite ready, while Jesus Sanchez and Monte Harrison have Triple-A experience.  Making room for Bryant for one year isn’t out of the question.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox don’t seem primed to go all-in on 2021, and they have Rafael Devers at third base.  But if they do decide to make a push, they could trade or demote Andrew Benintendi and use Bryant in left field.

Teams That Don’t Seem To Have A Spot For Bryant

  • Angels: The Halos have Anthony Rendon at third, Justin Upton in left, and Jo Adell in right.  Upton hasn’t been great the last two seasons, but he’s signed through 2022.  Adell struggled in his 38-game debut and could theoretically be held off for most of 2021, but doing that to accommodate Bryant seems unlikely for a team focused on pitching.
  • Phillies: It’d be fun to see old friends Bryce Harper and Bryant finally unite in Philly.  But the Phils have Alec Bohm slated for third, Andrew McCutchen in left, and Harper in right.  If the NL adds the DH for ’21, then there could be room for Bryant.
  • Mariners: They’ve got Kyle Seager locked in at third base for 2021, and by June should have an outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, and Mitch Haniger in place.  It’s hard to see where Bryant would fit in.
  • Twins: The Twins are set with Josh Donaldson at third base, Eddie Rosario in left field, and Max Kepler in right.  Unloading Rosario to acquire Bryant is technically possible, though.
  • Yankees: The Yankees are in good shape with Gio Urshela at third base, and figure to use Clint Frazier in left field and Aaron Judge in right.
  • Mets: J.D. Davis served as the Mets’ primary third baseman in 2020, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith handled left field.  All of these players, including Bryant, can play multiple positions.  All three Mets players hit well in 2020, and I can’t think of a good reason they would replace an affordable player with Bryant.  Maybe there’s some combination of trades that gets Bryant to the Mets, but it’d be a lot of moving parts.  Or, as with the Phillies, the addition of an NL DH for 2021 could open up a spot.

Teams That Could Find A Spot For Bryant, But Probably Can’t Afford Him

  • Padres: The Padres have pushed their payroll pretty far, but it’s never wise to count out A.J. Preller.  University of San Diego alum Kris Bryant would be a fun addition, but they’re already expected to shop Wil Myers due to his salary.  Perhaps if they succeed on that front, and/or they non-tender Tommy Pham, the Padres could pull it off.
  • Diamondbacks: Demoting Eduardo Escobar and plugging Bryant in at third as their big right-handed bat addition would be intriguing for the Diamondbacks, but with the club looking at a reduced payroll I can’t see how they’d add a $20MM player.
  • Rays: The Rays could find a spot for Bryant, maybe in right field, but with one of the game’s smallest payrolls it’s difficult to picture a $20MM addition.
  • Royals: The Royals don’t have much in the way of contracts, but after you add in their arbitration eligible players, paying for Bryant could be a reach.  They are one team in this bracket that could make it work if they really wanted to.
  • Athletics: The A’s could be aggressive in cuts with other aspects of the team and fit Bryant into an outfield corner, but it doesn’t seem likely.
  • Indians: Bryant would make for a solid corner outfield rental for the Indians, but they’re not going to add Bryant in an offseason where they’re expected to trade Francisco Lindor.
  • Rockies: The Rockies are generally expected to shed payroll, entertaining offers for Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story.  I can’t see how Bryant fits there.

In my opinion, the teams best-suited to trade for Bryant are the Blue Jays, Nationals, Braves, Dodgers, and Astros.  Of course, that’s without knowing the motivations of those clubs and whether they’d offer something the Cubs would consider worthwhile.

MLBTR Poll: NL Rookie of the Year

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National League Rookie of the Year Award finalists have been announced. The voting will come down to Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams, Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth. Here’s a look at what they did this year…

  • Williams was likely the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2020. The 26-year-old wasn’t the hardest-throwing pitcher in the sport – though he did average an impressive 96.5 mph mean on his fastball – but how do you beat a .33 ERA/.86 FIP over 27 innings? By the way, Williams posted 17.87 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Bohm didn’t join the Phillies until the middle of August, but he quickly solidified his spot in their lineup. The 24-year-old slashed an outstanding .338/.440/.481 (138 wRC+) with four home runs in 181 plate appearances.
  • Cronenworth, whom San Diego acquired from Tampa Bay last winter, proved to be a gem for the Padres in 2020. He played all four infield positions and batted .285/.354/.477 (125 wRC+) with four HRs over 192 PA during his first MLB season.

Who’s the NL Rookie of the Year? (Poll link for app users)

Mets Sign Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, Arodys Vizcaino

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The Mets have signed 11 minor league free agents, including outfielder Mallex Smith, infielder/outfielder Jose Peraza and reliever Arodys Vizcaino, according to Tim Britton of The Athletic.

The speedy Smith was a 3.5-fWAR and 40-steal player with the Rays as recently as 2018, but his production has gone downhill since then. While Smith did steal 46 bases with the Mariners the next season, he didn’t hit much then, and his offensive issues continued this year. He’s the owner of a terrible .220/.290/.323 line across 613 plate appearances in the past two seasons. Nevertheless, Smith could now succeed free agent Jake Marisnick as the Mets’ backup for Brandon Nimmo in center field.

The Red Sox signed Peraza, previously a Red, to a $3MM guarantee last offseason. That deal didn’t work out for Boston, as Peraza recorded a meek .225/.275/.342 line over 120 PA. It was the latest below-average season at the plate for Peraza, who has historically been an underwhelming option at the plate.

Vizcaino, 29, has had some enormously successful seasons with the Braves in the past, but injuries have destroyed his career of late. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched since April 7, 2019, after which he underwent shoulder surgery. He hasn’t taken the mound in the majors since then, but perhaps he’ll recover and emerge as a buy-low steal for the Mets next season.

Latest On Red Sox, Alex Cora

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One year after his ouster in Boston, former Red Sox manager Alex Cora continues to look like a serious candidate for their current opening in the dugout. Cora had an in-person meeting with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran last Friday as they seek a replacement for fired manager Ron Roenicke, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. They met in Cora’s native Puerto Rico, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

This could set up a second Red Sox stint for Cora, who managed the team from 2018-19 and led it to a World Series title (’18) and a 192-132 regular-season record. Despite the success the Red Sox had under Cora, the two sides parted ways last winter after Major League Baseball gave him a one-year suspension him for his role in Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal (Cora was the Astros’ bench coach then). Cora’s now eligible to return.

Along with Cora, the Red Sox have narrowed their search to Marlins bench coach James Rowson, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Phillies player information coordinator Sam Fuld. Cora’s the only member of the group with major league managerial experience. Industry sources view him as the favorite for the Boston job, per Cotillo.

Brewers Add Quintin Berry To Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced their 2021 coaching staff Wednesday, which includes a new but familiar name: former big league outfielder Quintin Berry. He’ll take the place of longtime third base coach Ed Sedar, who is transitioning from the dugout to a new role as an advisor to the Major League coaching staff.

Berry, 35, recently wrapped up a 13-year career as an outfielder — one that included parts of five seasons in the Majors. The speedster was a frequent late-season pickup for playoff hopefuls seeking a pinch-running specialist. He logged 94 games with the 2012 Tigers as a rookie but never came close to that mark again, ultimately wrapping up his time in the Majors with a .262/.333/.364 slash with 29 steals in 31 tries over the course of 132 games.

Berry also played in parts of 13 minor league seasons, hitting .257/.350/.327 with a whopping 399 steals. The last of those 13 seasons came in the Brewers organization in 2018, and he’s since been working as a minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator with the Brewers organization.

The rest of the coaching staff will look familiar to Brewers fans. Pat Murphy returns for a sixth season as Craig Counsell’s bench coach. Jason Lane will be one of the two base coaches along with Berry — their specific base designation has not yet been specified. Hitting coach Andy Haines, pitching coach Chris Hook and bullpen coach Steve Karsay are all returning for their third years on the staff. Assistant hitting coach Jacob Cruz is back for a second season, and the Brewers are also returning Walker McKinven as their associate pitching, catching and strategy coach.

Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer

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In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.

Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.

It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.

As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.

That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.

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