Brewers Notes: Topa, Fisher, Cain, JBJ, Vogelbach
MARCH 29: Topa has a flexor tendon strain and is unlikely to pitch for at least the first half of the season, Counsell told Haudricourt and other reporters (Twitter link).
MARCH 28: Brewers manager Craig Counsell discussed some roster situations with MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (Twitter links) and other reporters today, and Counsell revealed that right-hander Justin Topa will begin the season on the injured list. Topa underwent an MRI last night after he felt elbow discomfort during a simulated game, and the club is still waiting on the results.
Any sort of elbow problem is of particular concern for Topa, who has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries. Despite these injury setbacks, Topa battled through five seasons in the affiliated minors and an indy ball stint before finally making his MLB debut in 2020. Though Topa only tossed 9 2/3 total innings over six regular-season outings and one postseason game, the righty opened some eyes by allowing just two earned runs and recording 12 strikeouts against just a single walk.
Topa and Derek Fisher (hamstring) will both be on the 10-day injured list, but Counsell doesn’t believe the IL will be necessary for either Lorenzo Cain or Jackie Bradley Jr. The two veteran outfielders had missed some time in camp with quad and wrist problems, respectively, though Counsell indicated that he wouldn’t push Cain or Bradley hard in the early stages of the season. The Brewers were already planning to deploy something of a timeshare in the outfield in order to keep everyone fresh, and beyond Cain, Bradley, Christian Yelich, and Avisail Garcia, Billy McKinney might yet make the team in a bench role for further depth.
Speaking of Milwaukee’s bench, Counsell also said that Daniel Vogelbach made the Opening Day roster. Though the Brewers tendered Vogelbach a contract over the winter, there was some thought that the team could still cut Vogelbach (whose $1.4MM deal isn’t guaranteed until Opening Day) because Vogelbach doesn’t offer much in the way of bench versatility. The slugger is blocked by Keston Hiura at first base, and since the NL won’t have the designated hitter spot available this season, Vogelbach is likely just limited to pinch-hit opportunities and DH duty in interleague games. Still, the Brewers decided Vogelbach was worth keeping in the fold, considering his .987 OPS in 67 PA for Milwaukee last season.
Jose Leclerc To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Rangers closer Jose Leclerc will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2021 season, general manager Chris Young announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry).
Leclerc has battled elbow soreness since last week, so this news isn’t surprising, but it will rob him of an entire season and the Rangers of their best reliever. The 27-year-old threw just two innings last season as he dealt with a strain of his right teres muscle, and this latest injury will continue to throw a once-promising career off course.
Between 2016-19, Leclerc threw 187 innings of 3.16 ERA ball, and though he walked almost 15 percent of batters during that span, he helped offset that with a 33 percent strikeout rate and a fastball that averaged upward of 95 mph. The Rangers were so impressed with Leclerc’s work that they signed him to a four-year, $14.75MM extension before 2019. It looked like a worthwhile gamble at the time, but it hasn’t worked out as hoped for Texas because of Leclerc’s arm troubles. His deal still includes one more guaranteed season, in which he’s also sure to miss time as he recovers from this surgery, and two years with club options for $6MM or more or buyouts worth $750K or less apiece.
With Leclerc done for the season, it’s unclear who will open the season as the Rangers’ closer. Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush look like the most logical candidates, as they have game-ending experience and the Rangers selected their contracts over the weekend. Taylor Hearn and Josh Sborz are also among those who could be in the mix. Regardless, the loss of Leclerc is a significant one for the Rangers.
Rangers To Designate Rougned Odor For Assignment, Select Charlie Culberson
The Rangers have informed infielder Rougned Odor that he will not make the team’s Opening Day roster, as NBC 5’s Pat Doney first reported (Twitter link). Odor will be designated for assignment, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets. Texas still owes him $27MM over the next two seasons, and because he has five-plus years of MLB service, he can still collect that salary even if he clears waivers and is released. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that the Rangers will select the contract of veteran infielder Charlie Culberson, who has made the roster.
Odor’s DFA further emphasizes the Rangers’ youth movement and closes the book on one of the more regrettable financial commitments in the franchise’s history. Nearly four years ago to the day, Odor inked a six-year, $49.5MM contract extension buying out his arbitration seasons and a handful of free-agent years. At the time, he was coming off a two-year run that saw him bat .267/.305/.487 with 49 home runs — including a 33-homer campaign in 2016.
Questionable on-base skills gave some reason for concern, but Odor was a former Top 50 overall prospect who looked the part of a slugging second baseman. Few could’ve reasonably forecast such a stark decline in such rapid fashion, however. Odor struck out at just a 19.4 percent clip from 2015-16 with the Rangers, but his whiff rate jumped to 25 percent in 2017 and has now climbed as high as 30.9 percent from 2019-20. Odor maintained much of his power, but his suddenly sky-high strikeout rates made it difficult to keep his average north of .200. His OBP, meanwhile has routinely been south of .300.
In all, since signing the extension, Odor has turned in an awful .215/.279/.418 batting line and fanned in about 27 percent of his plate appearances. His defensive ratings have tumbled in recent seasons as well, further shining a spotlight on his struggles.
With Odor now out of the picture and Elvis Andrus traded to Oakland, it looks to be a new era for the Rangers infield. They’ll task Isiah Kiner-Falefa with manning shortstop on the regular, and Odor’s departure should pave the way for Nick Solak to get everyday at-bats at second base. While Solak’s glovework draws questionable reviews itself, he’s a well-regarded offensive prospect — even if he struggled during last year’s shortened schedule.
The Rangers will have a week to trade Odor, place him on outright waivers or release him. That timeline is something of a moot point, however, as no team is going to agree to acquire the remainder of the contract either via trade or waivers. It’s perhaps possible that the Rangers will find some kind of bad contract swap, but the likeliest outcome is that Odor will simply be released and free to seek opportunities with other clubs. Should he sign elsewhere, his new club would only be required to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. That sum would be subtracted from the $27MM the Rangers still owe him.
Chacin Granted Release By Yankees; Dietrich, Chirinos Agree To New Contracts
The Yankees have granted veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacin so that he may explore options with other teams, general manager Brian Cashman announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Fellow veterans Derek Dietrich and Robinson Chirinos have agreed to new deals that will keep them with the Yankees, per the GM. They’ll head to the team’s alternate site to begin the season.
Chacin, 33, pitched just five big league innings with the Braves in 2020 and struggled considerably between Milwaukee and Boston through 103 1/3 frames in 2019. As recently as 2018, he was a solid member of the Brewers’ rotation, though, pitching to a 3.50 ERA through 192 2/3 innings. He’s spent parts of a dozen seasons in the Majors and carries a career 4.04 ERA in 1324 innings — despite many of those innings coming at the hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. Chacin has been solid in camp with the Yankees, allowing four runs on eight hits and four walks with nine strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings.
The 31-year-old Dietrich drew five walks in just 33 plate appearances, showing the type of discipline that he’s developed in recent years. However, he was just 4-for-24 with a homer overall and didn’t do enough to beat out fellow veteran Jay Bruce for a roster spot, even though Dietrich has more defensive versatility.
Dietrich, a lefty-hitting utility man, has ample experience at second base and all four corner spots, so he could be called upon in the event of a variety of injury scenarios at the MLB level. He’s morphed into a three-true-outcomes slugger over the past couple years, hitting .189/.332/.462 with 24 homers in just 381 plate appearances dating back to 2019.
The 36-year-old Chirinos, meanwhile, appeared in just five games and recorded seven plate appearances before suffering a fractured wrist that sidelined him for much of camp. The veteran catcher will continue his rehab with the Yankees at their alternate site and could eventually emerge as an option at the big league level depending on health and performance of top catchers Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka. Chirinos posted poor numbers in a small sample of 82 plate appearances between the Rangers and Mets in 2020, but he batted .238/.347/.443 with 17 homers in 114 games as recently as 2019.
Felix Hernandez Opts Out Of Orioles Contract
1:19pm: The Orioles announced that Hernandez has requested and been granted his release. He’s not expected to re-sign a new deal with the O’s, tweets Joe Trezza of MLB.com.
7:25am: Felix Hernandez has chosen to opt out of his contract with the Baltimore Orioles and become a free agent, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
For awhile this spring, it looked like King Felix would indeed win an opportunity to begin the season in the Orioles rotation, but an elbow injury knocked him out of action in mid-March and undermined his efforts. Had he made the roster, he would have been in line for a $1MM salary.
Prior to the injury, Hernandez made three starts, threw 5 2/3 innings, and allowed five earned runs, six hits, two walks, and a hit batsman. He also struck out five. But there simply wasn’t enough evidence that Hernandez would even be healthy enough to take a turn every five days.
Hernandez last pitched in the Majors in 2019. He has a 169-136 record in 2,729 2/3 innings over 418 career starts – all with the Mariners. The soon-to-be 35-year-old put up 50.3 bWAR/54.1 fWAR over 15 seasons in Seattle.
Reds Select Tyler Naquin, Cam Bedrosian
The Reds announced Monday that they’ve selected the contracts of outfielder Tyler Naquin and right-handed reliever Cam Bedrosian. Both were in camp on non-roster deals and have now formally made the Opening Day club.
The Reds already had one open 40-man roster spot, and right-hander Brandon Bailey, who had Tommy John surgery earlier this spring, was placed on the 60-day IL to create a second one. Meanwhile, infielder Mike Freeman and right-handers Heath Hembree and Braden Shipley were all reassigned to minor league camp and will not make the Opening Day squad.
It’s not hard to see why either Naquin or Bedrosian made the club. The 29-year-old Naquin, a former Indians first-rounder who spent the past five seasons in Cleveland, posted a terrific .310/.375/.667 batting line with three homers, four doubles and a triple in 48 plate appearances. He struck out a bit too much (14 times) but also drew five walks.
Naquin probably won’t draw starting duties in Cincinnati, where the Reds have Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Nick Castellanos ahead of him on the depth chart. However, with Shogo Akiyama still on the mend from a hamstring strain, Naquin gives the Reds a left-handed-hitting outfielder capable of playing all three spots.
Bedrosian, meanwhile, allowed three homers and yielded four total runs in 8 2/3 innings this spring (4.15 ERA). However, he also punched out half of the 32 batters he faced and issued just three walks. His K/BB numbers went the wrong direction in last year’s shortened season, but Bedrosian has a generally strong track record with the Angels, having compiled a 3.20 ERA with a 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 9.0 percent walk rate dating back to 2016.
Jonathan Lucroy Granted Release By White Sox
The White Sox have released veteran catcher Jonathan Lucroy from his minor league contract, reports FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). The decision leaves Zack Collins and Yermin Mercedes as backup catching options still in camp. The Sox have already optioned Seby Zavala, and Yasmani Grandal is of course slated to serve as the primary catcher again in 2021. The Athletic’s James Fegan tweets that Lucroy asked for his release after being informed that he would not crack the Opening Day roster.
Lucroy, 34, appeared in 14 games with the Sox during Spring Training but only tallied 23 trips to the plate. It’s a small sample of work, but he hit well in that time, going 6-for-18 with a double and drawing five walks against just one strikeout. He’d long looked like a very plausible backup option behind Grandal, but it seems the Sox will instead turn things over to younger, in-house alternatives.
Keeping Lucroy would’ve required opening another 40-man roster spot. They’ll already need to do so for Andrew Vaughn at the very least — assuming he makes the club, as expected — and could need to do so for Jake Lamb, depending on the terms of the agreement he reached with the South Siders earlier this morning. Eloy Jimenez can be moved to the 60-day IL to create one such opening, but the Sox may not be keen on finding ways to open too many additional spots.
Lucroy was arguably MLB’s premier catcher at one point, but that was back in 2016 and his subsequent decline has been precipitous, to say the least. Since Opening Day 2017, Lucroy has posted a combined .248/.315/.305 batting line that clocks in at 24 percent worse than league-average production by measure of both OPS+ and wRC+. His once-vaunted framing numbers have tumbled as well, as has his ability to catch opposing base thieves. Lucroy appeared in just one big league game last year, with the Red Sox, and did not tally a plate appearance.
Twins To Sign Randy Dobnak To Five-Year Extension
TODAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today provides the details on Dobnak’s extension. He’ll make $700K this season, $800K in 2022, $1.5MM in 2023, $2.25MM in 2024, and $3MM in 2025, his final year of initial team control. The three team options will be worth $6MM in 2026, $7MM in 2027, and $8.5MM in 2028 with buyouts of $1MM for 2026 and just $100K for both 2027 and 2028.
MARCH 29: The Minnesota Twins are in agreement with right-hander Randy Dobnak on a five-year, $9.25MM extension, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). The deal includes three club option years with escalators that can bring the total amount up to $29.75MM. The first option year in 2026 will include a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). That leaves $8.25MM to be spread out among the five seasons prior. For each of the three option years, escalators can add up to $1.8MM per season based on innings pitched thresholds. Dobnak is a client of Gaeta Sports Management.
This definitely rates as somewhat of a surprise, given that Dobnak, 26, will begin the year in the bullpen after spending all of last season in the rotation. While starting the year in a piggyback role might seem like a demotion, the Twins clearly feel compelled enough by Dobnak’s performance to guarantee his role in the organization for years to come. Further, with just 1.047 days of service time, he wasn’t likely to become arbitration-eligible until 2023.
The Twins, meanwhile, get three additional seasons of optional team control at what are likely to be reasonable rates. Both sides benefit from the financial certainty, though the escalators still provide Dobnak with a path to increasing his future earnings. Importantly, this is likely to be Dobnak’s primary source of career earnings: If the Twins choose to buy out the option years, it’s not likely to lead to a higher salary elsewhere, and if the Twins don’t buyout any of the option years, Dobnak will reach free agency for the first time prior to his age-34 season. Still, given his non-traditional path to professional baseball, it’s certainly understandable why a deal like this would appeal to Dobnak.
His rise, after all, certainly qualifies as one of the less likely origin stories in recent season. The Twins signed Dobnak with a mere $500 signing bonus in July 2017 after scouting him exclusively over YouTube, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. He supplemented his income by driving for Uber and excelled through the Twins’ system despite overwhelming velocity or a knock-out put-away pitch. For a 26-year-old who signed out of independent ball, this deal represents life-changing money.
On the hill, suffice it so say that Dobnak has repeatedly overcome his underdog status to provide valuable innings for Minnesota. He was a genuine revelation in making his debut during the 2019 season, posting a 1.59 ERA/3.92 SIERA in five starts and four relief appearances covering 28 1/3 innings. Dobnak’s sophomore season had more ups-and-downs, but he still managed a 4.05 ERA/4.56 SIERA in 10 starts covering 46 2/3 innings. In 75 total career innings, Dobnak has achieved an excellent 58.8 percent groundball rate with a similarly-encouraging 5.7 percent walk rate and less-than-thrilling 15.7 percent strikeout rate.
He certainly doesn’t fit the mold of today’s hurler. His fastball lands in the 31st percentile for velocity and 5th percentile for spin rate. He is in the 13th percentile for whiff rate and fourth percentile by strikeout rate. Nevertheless, he has been better than average at avoiding barrels and coaxing below-average exit velocity while burning worms and avoiding free passes.
The recipe has worked for Dobnak thus far and earned him a long-term home in Minnesota. His four-seam fastball/sinker averaged just 91.4 mph, but strong arm-side run has proved it particularly effective against righties. He re-worked his slider and increased its usage in 2020 to promising results. While he will begin the season in the bullpen, the Twins rotation features a number of veterans with a history of injuries. It’s highly unlikely that the Twins won’t need to access their depth behind Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and the oft-injured Matt Shoemaker. Chances are the Twins’ mustachioed, bespectacled, newly-wealthy right-hander will be called on for bulk innings in 2021 and beyond.
NL Notes: Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals
The Nationals will enter the season with Starlin Castro as their everyday third baseman. Josh Harrison will get most of the starts at second, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Veterans Jordy Mercer and Hernan Perez will back them up. The latter duo had just 28 plate appearances between them in 2020. This wasn’t exactly the plan as designed for how to replace Anthony Rendon, who is finally recognized as one of the best in the game at the hot corner.
Unfortunately, Carter Kieboom hasn’t totally turned the corner after tying for the 10-lowest ISO mark (.010 ISO) among batters with at least 100 plate appearances in the past twenty seasons. Among those in the bottom-10, three promptly retired, while others continued on as rarely-used bench players. Take it for what you will, then, that a Kieboom resurgence still likely presents the highest possible ceiling of the options available. For now, the Nats will trudge forward with their cadre of veterans. This might not be a short-term solution, however. Manager Dave Martinez said he wants Castro at third because he’s going to play everyday and he doesn’t want to move him around, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Martinez prefers Harrison’s range at second. Meanwhile, we’re just three days from opening day…
- Former Nationals Wilmer Difo and Brian Goodwin were reassigned to minor league camp along with right-hander Steven Wright, the Pirates announced today. Right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has also been optioned to the minors. That means Anthony Alford likely starts the year as the starting centerfielder, notes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with Dustin Fowler backing up all three outfield spots. Alford, 26, jumps right into a regular role after experiencing mere cups of coffee in the four years prior. Going back to his debut with the Blue Jays in 2017, here are Alford’s season totals for plate appearances: 8, 21, 30, and 29.
- Tommy Edman will be the Cardinals’ backup centerfielder to start the season, per Jeff Jones of MLB.com (via Twitter). Tyler O’Neill will line up after him. Harrison Bader‘s injury has certainly thrown a bit of a wrench into the Cardinals defensive alignment. With Bader, St. Louis was preparing an otherworldly defensive unit: Paul Goldschmidt is a three-time Gold Glove winner at first; Yadier Molina is a nine-time winner and the consensus best defensive catcher of his generation; Paul DeJong has been frozen out of award season, but he’s been easily among the NL’s best defensive shortstops in recent seasons; ditto for Bader in center, while O’Neill posted 9 DRS in left last season; Nolan Arenado, of course, has never not won the Gold Glove. Not mentioned there, Carlson and Edman, who are, apparently, capable of shifting to centerfield at a moment’s notice. No matter who mans center, it seems, the Cards plan on catching the baseball.
NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Widener, Closer, Ahmed, Dodgers, McKinstry
Taylor Widener will open the season as a member of the Diamondbacks rotation, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (via Twitter). Widener beat out Taylor Clarke to take Zac Gallen’s spot in the rotation. Widener has been a highly-regarded prospect, first in the Yankees’ system and then with the Diamondbacks. He made 12 appearances out of the Dbacks’ pen in 2020 with a 4.50 ERA/6.49 FIP across 20 innings. Clarke, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen. Elsewhere in the desert…
- The Diamondbacks are going with a closer-by-committee approach to start the season, per Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). Joakim Soria has been the presumptive closer given his past experience in the role compared to the other options on the roster. Soria’s 223 career saves easily set the pace. Tyler Clippard is second with 68 career saves, and Stefan Crichton comes in third with just five career saves. Nevertheless, Crichton is one of the guys manager Torey Lovullo may turn to late in game. The Diamondbacks might simply want to push some of their less proven bullpen arms to see what exactly they have in someone like Crichton or Kevin Ginkel.
- Nick Ahmed‘s been experiencing knee pain, an issue that he has dealt with in the past. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection as treatment and plans to be ready for opening day, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Arizona doesn’t have a perfect solution to replace Ahmed, were he to miss time. Josh Rojas would likely slide to short with Asdrubal Cabrera seeing more regular time at the keystone. For now, however, they’ll assume good health and move ahead with Ahmed. While he’s not among the elite at his position, Ahmed has put together a quality three-year stretch, pairing gold glove defense with an acceptable 89 wRC+.
- Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed that none of the non-roster invitees are still in the running to make their opening day roster, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Presumably, that means Zach McKinstry has made the roster as a utility option off the bench. There is still one roster decision pending for the champs, however, as Roberts says they are not yet decided about their fifth starter. David Price, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin are all still under consideration for the role. Price was scratched from his recent start because of illness. He plans to pitch today in a simulated game. (Twitter links). Gonsolin struggled through 3 2/3 innings against the Angels on Sunday night.