Braves’ Bryse Wilson To Start Game 4 Of NLCS
The Braves will start right-hander Bryse Wilson in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. He’s likely to go up against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. In the meantime, it will be Kyle Wright for the Braves against Julio Urias of the Dodgers on Wednesday as Atlanta tries to take a 3-0 lead in the series.
If the Braves win Game 3, Wilson have a chance to close out the series against the legendary Kershaw and the Dodgers in what will be his playoff debut. A fourth-round pick in 2016 and a former top 100 prospect, Wilson has seen action with the Braves in each season since 2018. The 22-year-old has had difficulty in the majors, though, having posted a 5.91 ERA/5.42 FIP with 7.8 K/9 and 5.27 BB/9 in 42 2/3 innings.
Wilson has made 15 appearances in his MLB career, and he has lasted more than five innings just once. That suggests the Braves will have to heavily rely on their bullpen Thursday.
Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Position Players
We know that this year’s qualifying offer will be worth a hefty $18.9MM, though that is one of the few points of certainty we have heading into the most unpredictable offseason in baseball history. The revenue losses brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted every corner of the sport, and since there’s so much up in air about how the 2021 season will operate, it is widely expected that many free agents in this year’s market will feel a crunch.
Will that squeeze extend to the very top of the market? We did see Mookie Betts and the Dodgers agree to a massive extension, so there’s evidence teams are still willing to break the bank for superstar-level talent. Betts was rather a unique case, of course, and negotiating an extension is different than negotiating a free agent deal. Even the old mantra of “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal” might not necessarily apply this winter, as while there are certainly some players teams would love to have back for $18.9MM, a lot of clubs might hesitate at even making that kind of potential investment on anything less than a surefire star.
From a player’s perspective, a guaranteed $18.9MM might be preferable to testing an uncertain open market. This has been the reasoning for many free agents who chose to accept qualifying offers in the past, and that was during more normal offseasons. It makes for a tough decision for many players, who have worked their whole careers to get a chance at free agency only to see their opportunity come in the wake of a pandemic.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently published a refresher on how the qualifying offer system works, including the key details about draft pick compensation and how the QO is a one-time application. For the latter, this is why major free agents like Marcell Ozuna and Nelson Cruz aren’t included in this list, as both players have been tagged with the QO in past trips through the free agent market.
This post will focus on the position players who could be plausible candidates to receive qualifying offers…
Easy Calls: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), George Springer (Astros), DJ LeMahieu (Yankees)
Along with Reds ace Trevor Bauer, these are the clear-cut stars of the 2020-21 free agent class. All will receive qualifying offers from their respective teams, and all will reject the offers since lucrative long-term contracts surely await on the open market.
Of the players who could become free agents if their teams decline their 2021 club options, Anthony Rizzo seems like the only reasonable QO candidate, but the Cubs are almost a lock to exercise their $16.5MM option on his services.
Leaning Towards Yes: Didi Gregorius (Phillies)
There was speculation last winter that Gregorius might get issued a qualifying offer from the Yankees, but New York let him cleanly walk away into free agency and the shortstop inked a one-year, $14MM deal with Philadelphia. Gregorius was coming off an injury-shortened 2019 season and, though he and his representatives had some multi-year offers on the table, chose the one-year deal so he could rebuild his value and quickly re-enter free agency in search of a richer multi-year contract. The bounce-back did happen, as Gregorius hit .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs over 237 PA and played in all 60 of the Phillies’ game.
The only thing that makes Gregorius less than a QO lock is the question about how much the Phillies are willing or able to spend next season. With so many roster needs to address, and the possible need to save as much money as possible to bid on Realmuto, the Phillies might not want to risk a qualifying offer for Gregorius if they think he will accept. Going by Gregorius’ strategy last winter, however, it would seem unusual to see him take the short-term pillow contract for 2020, have his desired comeback year, and then take another one-year contract in the form of a qualifying offer. If Gregorius only signs for one year, he would then face heavy competition next winter when so many star shortstops will hit free agency after the 2021 season.
All this to be said, Gregorius seems less likely to accept a qualifying offer, so the Phils can probably feel safe in issuing the QO and lining themselves up for draft pick compensation if Gregorius leaves. There’s enough uncertainty here that I couldn’t make Gregorius an “easy call,” though there’s more evidence he might get a qualifying offer than the likes of…
Borderline Cases: Marcus Semien (Athletics), Michael Brantley (Astros)
For an Athletics team that has long relied on refreshing its system with young talent, it would be a tough blow to let Semien sign elsewhere and not even receive a draft pick in return. Yet, the A’s find themselves in a difficult decision given that Semien’s production dropped off significantly in 2020. He hit .223/.305/.374 with seven homers over 236 plate appearances, a far cry from his MVP-esque numbers in 2019.
That 2019 campaign remains the only true superstar-caliber year of Semien’s career, as he has otherwise been a steady player who provides solid pop for a shortstop and has worked hard to go from being a defensive question mark to a good defender. If Semien had been a free agent last winter, he certainly would have been looking at a nine-figure contract. This winter, however, there’s certainly a case to be made that he might accept a qualifying offer in the hopes of better numbers in 2021.
Even under non-pandemic circumstances, the A’s have never extended their payroll to spend $18.9MM on a single player. Given the possibility that Semien could accept a QO, it’s tough seeing Oakland taking that risk, especially when they have a similar qualifying offer choice to make with another notable free agent in Liam Hendriks.
Brantley has continued to mash through his age-33 season (.300/.364/.476 in 187 PA) and throughout Houston’s playoff run. This was despite battling quad problems for much of the season, and while there are questions about how much longer Brantley can hold up as a regular outfielder, he is still a very solid defensive left fielder when he plays on the grass. There’s a lot to like about Brantley’s chances of being a future contributor, so why is he a borderline QO case?
In short, Brantley might be the kind of veteran player who gets squeezed in an offseason where every free agent dollar will be heavily scrutinized. Teams will focus on Brantley’s age (he turns 34 in February), injury history, and lackluster hard-hit ball data as reasons to avoid paying him big money, while secretly hoping his price tag drops low enough to be signed at a bargain rate. It’s possible the Astros could use these marks in Brantley’s “cons” column as a reason to extend a qualifying offer — if Brantley also has draft pick compensation attached to his services, it could further dampen his market and allow the Astros a better chance at re-signing him for less than $18.9MM in average annual value. That said, if Brantley and his agents see a tough market coming, they could choose to accept the QO if Houston issues one.
The Astros also face a difficult payroll situation in 2021. $137.75MM has already been committed to eight players, one whom (Justin Verlander) is a non-factor due to Tommy John surgery. A big arbitration class could be trimmed by some non-tenders, but that still leaves the likes of Carlos Correa or Lance McCullers Jr. in line for significant raises. Adding Brantley at $18.9MM might be an added expenditure the team isn’t willing to make, especially if the Astros still have designs on re-signing Springer.
Probably Not: Andrelton Simmons (Angels)
We’ll end with yet another shortstop, arguably the best defensive shortstop (or player?) of all time. However, Simmons’ glovework actually seemed mortal in 2020 — he had a minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved and -1 Outs Above Average over 265 1/3 innings, though he was hampered by an ankle sprain that led to an injured list stint.
Simmons turned 31 in September and hit decently well (.297/.346/.356) over 127 plate appearances, though he only played in 30 games due to his IL trip and his decision to opt out of the season’s final five games. He might be apt to accept a qualifying offer under those circumstances, and the Angels aren’t likely to extend one since they have a shortstop replacement on hand in David Fletcher, and would probably prefer to put $18.9MM towards fixing the struggling rotation.
We’ll also place Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos in the “probably not” category, as Castellanos can become a free agent if he opts out of the three years and $48MM remaining on his contract. However, it is very doubtful Castellanos exercises that clause to become a free agent again, as he only hit .222/.298/.486 with 14 homers in 242 PA in 2020.
Yankees Will Evaluate Catcher Position
The Yankees have largely stuck by catcher Gary Sanchez during what has been an up-and-down career, but it’s possible that could change before next season. Asked Wednesday about Sanchez’s status, general manager Brian Cashman was not willing to commit to him as the team’s No. 1 catcher going forward. Cashman said (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) that it’s “certainly a fair question” whether Sanchez will remain the Yankees’ main backstop. The Yankees plan to evaluate the position during the offseason.
Sanchez began his career with a flourish in 2016, smacking 20 home runs and slashing .299/.376/.557 in 229 plate appearances, but his offense and defense have been inconsistent since then. Sanchez was a big-hitting catcher as recently as 2019, but the 27-year-old slumped to a .147/.253/.365 line with 10 homers over 178 PA during this past regular season. He also led the AL in passed balls and finished in the majors’ 37th percentile in framing (per Statcast), though he did throw out a respectable 27 percent of would-be base stealers.
While the Yankees may be souring on Sanchez, whom they sat in the playoffs on multiple occasions, alternatives aren’t easy to find. J.T. Realmuto would represent an upgrade and a major splash on the open market, but the only starting-caliber catcher available after him in free agency will be James McCann. The Yankees do have Kyle Higashioka, ace Gerrit Cole‘s personal catcher, on their roster, but he hasn’t shown he’s capable of an everyday role. So, barring a $100MM-plus Realmuto signing, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees keep Sanchez on their roster for 2021 in his second year of arbitration eligibility. He earned a prorated $5MM this season.
White Sox Managerial Rumors: Hinch, Cora, La Russa
TODAY: The Angels have granted the White Sox permission to interview La Russa, Nightengale tweets.
OCTOBER 12: Despite earning their first playoff berth since 2008 this season, the White Sox have decided to make major changes in their dugout. The team parted ways with manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper on Monday, leaving at least two significant holes in its coaching staff.
When discussing the White Sox’s vacancy at manager with reporters Monday, GM Rick Hahn said the club plans on finding someone with recent championship pedigree to replace Renteria, and that person’s likely to come from outside the organization, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, then, former Astros manager A.J. Hinch has emerged as a possibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
Hinch helped lead Houston to a championship in 2017, but that accomplishment has been marred by a sign-stealing scandal that caused Major League Baseball to suspend him for this season and Houston to part ways with him after last year. But Hinch’s suspension will expire after the World Series, and he has already drawn interest from Detroit – a Chicago AL Central rival that’s also looking for a manager – so he could get back in the game in short order.
It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Alex Cora – Hinch’s bench coach in ’17 – receive consideration, but the White Sox haven’t shown interest in Cora yet, according to Nightengale. Cora also had to sit out this season, but he is only two years removed from winning a title as Boston’s manager in 2018.
There also seems to be a possibility that the White Sox won’t opt for a recent major league manager to fill the role. Rather, one of their former skippers, 76-year-old Hall of Famer Tony La Russa, could be their answer. In an unexpected twist, the White Sox plan to reach out to La Russa, reports Nightengale, who adds that the position intrigues the four-time Manager of the Year. Since managing the White Sox, Cardinals and Athletics from 1979-2011 and combining for three World Series titles (one in Oakland, two in St. Louis), La Russa has worked in the front offices of the Diamondbacks, Red Sox and Angels. As Nightengale notes, La Russa is close friends with White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
Hyeon-Jong Yang Expected To Pursue MLB Opportunities This Winter
Kia Tigers lefty Hyeon-jong Yang is expected to explore offers from MLB teams this winter, Jeeho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency tweets. The former KBO MVP is wrapping up a two-year deal with the same Tigers club with which he’s spent the past 14 seasons.
If Yang’s name sounds familiar to MLBTR readers, it’s likely due to the fact that the Tigers posted the southpaw for big league clubs back in the 2014-15 offseason. That was in the days of a since restructured posting system between MLB and the KBO, wherein all 30 big league clubs had the option of submitting a blind bid on what release fee they’d pay a player’s club. Yang’s Tigers did not feel that the winning bid — believed to be submitted by the Rangers — was enticing enough to part with their top pitcher.
Yang returned to the KBO and even signed a pair of free-agent deals with the Kia organization, but he’ll now apparently gauge MLB interest this winter. As a 14-year pro, he’s exempt from international signing restrictions and can sign a Major League contract for any amount or length.
The 2020 season hasn’t been a strong one for Yang, however, as his 4.46 ERA is his highest mark since the 2012 season. That said, Yang also ranks 14th among KBO pitchers with a 4.02 FIP (min. 50 innings pitched), and this year’s 8.1 K/9 mark is his highest since the 2014 season that led to his original posting. Assuming he finishes out this season healthy, Yang will have averaged 30 starts per season over his past seven years. He’s pitched to a 3.52 ERA with a 1074-to-410 K/BB ratio in 1267 frames over that seven-year span.
Of course, clubs will be far more interested in what they project Yang to be in 2021 than in what he’s done since his age-26 season. He’ll turn 33 next March, meaning he’s on the wrong side of a player’s typical prime, but considering the perennial offseason demand for pitching, it’s easy to envision some big league clubs taking a speculative look at a durable, low-risk flier for the rotation. Yang’s countryman, Kwang Hyun Kim, signed a two-year, $8MM deal with the Cardinals last winter when he was two years younger and was coming off a better platform. It’ll obviously be a different market for pitching this year, but there’s little precedent for a pitcher of Yang’s age commanding a sizable Major League deal in his first bite at the apple.
Kevin Kiermaier Exits ALCS Game 3 After HBP
10:35 pm: X-rays on Kiermaier’s wrist came back negative, per Topkin and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). He has been diagnosed with a contusion.
10:30 pm: Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier exited tonight’s ALCS Game 3 in the sixth inning after being hit by a pitch, as first noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Right fielder Manuel Margot moved to center, with Hunter Renfroe coming off the bench to play right.
Kiermaier took a 99 MPH fastball from Enoli Paredes off his left wrist area, as Daren Willman of MLB.com noted. He ran for himself but was replaced defensively in the following half-inning. Kiermaier posted a .217/.321/.367 line in the regular season and hasn’t hit much this postseason. He’s an otherworldly outfielder, though, and has been a vital piece of a Rays’ defense that has shined during their playoff run.
Brandon Belt Undergoes Heel Surgery
Giants first baseman Brandon Belt underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his right heel last week, the team announced to reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). The team did not provide a timetable for his recovery, Schulman adds.
Belt’s 2020 debut was delayed by a right heel issue, as he opened the season on the injured list due to Achilles tendonitis. It didn’t seem to affect him when he returned, though. Belt hit a superlative .309/.425/.591 with nine home runs in 179 plate appearances, helping the Giants stay in playoff contention until the season’s final day.
The 32-year-old Belt will make $16MM in 2021, the final year of his contract. Assuming he’s healthy, he’ll likely be the primary option at first base for manager Gabe Kapler. The Giants do have Darin Ruf on hand as insurance, though, and may choose to incorporate Buster Posey somewhat frequently there as well.
AL Notes: White Sox, Renteria, Indians, Blue Jays
As the Rays and Astros battle for the American League pennant, let’s check in on a trio of teams whose offseasons have already started:
- On the heels of their first postseason berth since 2008, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly parted ways with manager Rick Renteria yesterday. Jim Margalus of Sox Machine digs into the likely motivations behind that decision. To some extent, Renteria was the victim of circumstances, Margalus feels; when the former Cubs skipper took over on the South Side entering the 2017 season, the Sox were amidst a rebuild. Margalus opines those first few years of losing, while expected, made it easier for the front office to move on from Renteria now if they weren’t convinced the 58-year-old was best equipped to guide the contending club to postseason success. (Indeed, the front office was displeased when Renteria pushed back a bit against the use of data in his in-game decision-making, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Another factor working against Renteria, according to Margalus: the Tigers’ own vacancy, which could have spurred GM Rick Hahn to launch a managerial search this offseason rather than risk losing an ideal potential candidate to a division rival.
- Sticking with the AL Central, the Indians face an offseason rife with uncertainty. The catching situation will be particularly interesting, Zack Meisel of the Athletic observes. Cleveland holds a $5MM club option on starter Roberto Pérez, while backup Austin Hedges would be in line for a raise on his $3MM salary in arbitration. That combination might prove too pricey for the low-payroll Indians, Meisel points out. That would seem to hint at Hedges being non-tendered, but Cleveland clearly liked him enough to acquire him from the Padres just over a month ago as part of the return for Mike Clevinger. Pérez had a dismal 2020 but is only a year removed from performing as one of the league’s best catchers; it’s hard to envisioning the Indians declining his option based upon a poor 100 plate appearances, although perhaps Pérez becomes a trade candidate himself if the club is comfortable turning to Hedges as their top option.
- The Blue Jays acquired Ross Stripling from the Dodgers at this year’s trade deadline, but the right-hander struggled in 15.2 innings after the deal. Nevertheless, he’s likely to be a key piece of the Toronto pitching staff in 2021, Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic believes. GM Ross Atkins specifically mentioned Stripling when discussing the team’s pitching options, McGrath notes, suggesting there’s not much of a chance he’ll be non-tendered this offseason. That’s not surprising, as Stripling is likely only in line for a small raise on this season’s modest $2.1MM salary.
NL East Notes: Anderson, Braves, Mets
Some notes from the National League East:
- The Braves turned to rookie right-hander Ian Anderson in tonight’s NLCS Game 2. The 22-year-old certainly earned the assignment, having turning in a 1.95 ERA/2.54 FIP in his first six major league starts. The former 3rd overall pick is now one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball, but he wasn’t seen as a lock to go in the top ten leading up to the 2016 draft. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com looks back at Atlanta’s pre-draft process, crediting area scout Greg Mohrhardt for his steadfast belief in the New York high schooler. Mayo’s piece is worth a full perusal for Braves’ fans or those interested in a look behind the curtain at the process for evaluating top draft prospects.
- Homegrown players like Anderson are the backbone of the current Braves club. Nevertheless, Atlanta has done an excellent job of supplementing the roster in free agency, points out Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet. The Braves’ one-year, $18MM deal with Marcell Ozuna was nothing short of a coup, as the 29-year-old was one of the top hitters in the National League this year. The Braves also hit on their two-year agreement with Travis d’Arnaud, who put together an elite season at the plate and has added a few key moments this postseason. Ashbourne runs through a few other instrumental additions that GM Alex Anthopolous and the rest of the front office have made to help push Atlanta to the NLCS.
- Mets‘ fans are hoping likely incoming owner Steve Cohen will green-light a higher payroll than has become customary under the Wilpon family. Precisely where spending on the roster will land remains to be seen, but Cohen is already taking steps to improve the franchise behind the scenes. He’s expected to invest heavily in building the organization’s analytics infrastructure, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets’ existing analytics and player development systems are “archaic,” hears Puma, who adds that the Wilpons never provided former (and probably future) baseball operations leader Sandy Alderson with the kinds of resources he desired to keep up with rival data-driven front offices around the league.
Steinbrenner: Aaron Boone “Will Be Back” In 2021
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner met with various media members to discuss the team’s upcoming offseason. First and foremost, he addressed the status of skipper Aaron Boone. As with most managers whose teams don’t ultimately win the World Series, Boone came under some fire from fans and media for his handling of the pitching staff this postseason. Steinbrenner, though, shot down any speculation about a change in the managerial chair. “Aaron Boone will be back next year, that’s just a fact,” the owner said (via Marly Rivera of ESPN). Steinbrenner added that he remains happy with the performance of GM Brian Cashman, as well (from David Lennon of Newsday).
While it seems the Yankees will keep their main leadership structure in place, they’ll have some key roster decisions to make. One player Boone seemed to lose faith in down the stretch is Gary Sánchez. The 27-year-old has been one of the league’s premier offensive catchers since breaking into the big leagues for good in 2016. Sánchez completely lost his way at the plate this season, though, prompting the Yankees to at least consider moving him in advance of the August 31 trade deadline.
Steinbrenner implied Sánchez would be back in the Bronx in 2021, noting that the club will have to “get him back” to form (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Those comments notwithstanding, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears from multiple rival executives who expect the Yankees to again listen to offers on Sánchez in the coming months.
Of course, the club will also have to weigh the uncertain economic climate in all their personnel decisions. Steinbrenner became the latest MLB owner to discuss the widespread revenue losses the sport incurred this season. The 50-year-old said the sport’s most visible franchise took “significant losses, more than any other team in baseball” during the pandemic-shortened season (Hoch link). How much that’ll affect the Yankees’ upcoming payroll remains to be seen.